mobile ecosystem dynamics (cto briefing)

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Copyright Paul Golding, 2011http://wirelesswanders.com

Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics - CTO BriefingPaul Golding

May 2011

Wednesday, 25 May 2011

http://public.me.com/paul.a.golding

http://public.me.com/paul.a.golding

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Key numbers:21 years in mobile ecosystems16 patents (mobile chip design)4 books1st mobile apps co. in Europe1st mobile internet portal1st push email solution

Why listen to this guy?

Paul GKey roles:Mobile Product StrategyDeveloper/Product OwnerChief Apps Architect MotorolaAdvisor to corps €10k - €10BFounded the O2 UK IncubatorMentor at Springboard IncubatorconnFu* Master at O2

*connFu is a cloud-telephony platform

Most importantly: I’ve worked with many companies, big and small, on mobile product strategies. I at least know the right questions :)


3Written a few books...

Innovationis for

Everyone

31 innovationhabits

August2011

Sept2011


http://thumbculture.loginb.com/




















































Navigating the mobile ecosystem...

4

$

Which future?


5

ExperienceEcosystems

“Right-time” web

SensorProliferation

CloudComputing

Post PC epoch

Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape...

Digital service providers need to navigate this landscape

AppEconomy

LTEBT LP

SmartphonesEmbedded Tablets

FacebookGoogleApple

HandsetEmbedded

PaaSSaaSIaaS

AbundantAccess inc. M2M

App storeSoftware

Real-time& meta-data


6Device platform evolution...

comms

OS

Web

apps

2007

Closed

Telco OEM Internet



comms

OS

Web

apps

2007

Closed

Web

OS

comms

apps

2011

Open

Telco OEM Internet



comms

OS

Web

apps

2007

Closed

Web

OS

comms

apps

2011

Open

Telco OEM Internet

Web

OS

comms

apps

2014

Experience Platforms


7Balance of influence tipping towards developers...

Web

OS

comms

apps


Telco OEM Internet Developers


7Balance of influence tipping towards developers...

Web

OS

comms

apps


TelcoOEM

InternetDevelopers


Apps

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Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQ

App experience...Telco

Mobile experience is moving towards apps...


http://bit.ly/dLIQzQ

http://bit.ly/dLIQzQ

9Digital experience economy...

Network Infrastructuree.g. LTE, 3G, WiFi, ADSL, Cable...

Software/Device Ecosystemse.g. iOS, Android, Web...

User Experience(apps)

$$$$$$$

$$$$$

$$$


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Software/Device

Network Infrastructure

User Experience (apps)

Digital experience influence...


11But app stores and experience platforms exert control

Internet Ecosystems

Web

OS

comms

apps


}!

Developers


12

MoneyGaming HealthMedia SME/CorpSocial “Experience Platforms”

“The Web Operating System”

Frameworks

“Cloud Platforms”IaaS

PaaSSaaS

CaaS

Telco

“Social Stack”

Family

iOS AndroidHTML5 ?

Identity/oAuth

Mobile Services “Stack”LAMP/R stack

BIG DATA

“Right-time”Computers

Post PCDevices

NaaS

Mobile software stack top to bottom...


13The dominance of experience ecosystems...

“Our competitors aren’t taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem.”

Steven Elop, CEO, Nokia

Strategic battlefront: ecosystems

MoneyGaming HealthMedia SME/CorpSocial

“Experience Platforms”

Family


14Platform economics (N-sided)...

OEMS

Users



OEMS

Users

Developers



OEMS

Users

Developers

Operators



tip: read Spolsky, Hagiu, Eisenmann,

VisionMobile

OEMS

Users

Google mobile search 15%Google mobile ad revenue: 1.5%

AdvertisersDevelopers

Operators


15

DevelopProduct

Apps are now about product, not code...

From hobby to fully blown enterprise...


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DevelopProduct

Apps are now about product, not code...

tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself

tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog, other devs...

Analytics, retailing, marketing, support, CRM...

HeyzapchompflurryallifySocial media

Lean start-upCustDevPlanning

MobileWebPaaS/SaaS

MobileWebTools/X-Dev

From hobby to fully blown enterprise...

ConceiveProduct

ChoosePlatforms

DeliverProduct

EngageMarket


16Key platform decisions...

Which tech platform should I use?


17Which platforms are developers paying attention to?

Penetration (100M+)Easy learning curve

Penetration (120M+)Monetization!Consistent UX

Web-dev friendly!Mass consumptionSmartphone browsers

A lighthouse platform for brands/agencies

Increasing support from CMS tools (e.g. Wordpress)

Strong entertainment/business app genres

Weak business app genre

A lighthouse platform for devs (experimental)

Emerging lighthouse formultiscreen development

Limited APIs and implementationNOT an ecosystem!

Not an “open” OSNot “all apps are equal”

Fragmentation worries(no OEM update incentives)


18App store monetization...

Free Paid

PaidFree


19Tools are getting richer and better...

Lua language (“code less”)Strong gaming platformExploits OpenGL2D physics engineAnnual fee

HTML/CSS/JSMobile/desktopAnnual fee

HTML + CSS + JavaScriptOpenDeveloper focussed

Corona from Ansca Mobile Titanium from Appcelerator Phonegap

HTML5 framework for TouchPay for support

Ruby frameworkEnterprise focus (sync)

Caveats:

Most solutions “favour” a reference platform

Success very use-case dependent


20Mobile web getting better...

<video>Without plug-ins (Flash)Codec independentMultimedia content

Semantic Annotations“itemprop”Add semantics to HTMLSemantic apps

Geo-location APIAccesses underlying APIsLocation-based apps

App cacheCache pages/script etc.Offline working

Web WorkersBackground processingOffloading long-running tasks

<device>API to hardware devicesMicrophone/cameraRicher interactive apps

Local storageKey-value pairs(IndexDB likely)Offline working

<canvas>Built-in Graphics Canvas2D vector graphicsGames and rich UI


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Inert

COMPUTER#two

>1GHz

COMPUTER#one

We now carry two computers...


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Sight(Camera)

Sound(Microphone)

Touch(NFC)

Direction(Compass)

Touch(Temperature)

Motion(Accelerometer)

Remote sensing(Bluetooth)

But it’s more than just a computer...

A computer with senses...Wednesday, 25 May 2011

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AlphaPunk office

W

S

N

E

Popular view of “Augmented Reality”

We can surf the real world...


24And we can interact with the physical world...

Money

Access

BodyCars

Metering

Control

Security Sight(Camera)

Sound(Microphone)

Touch(NFC)

Direction(Compass)

Touch(Temperature)



Real “Augmented Reality”


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http://paulg.stuff/car/245534462342

/vitals/heart...

/watch/temperature/..

/home/windows/..

/trainers/wear/..

There’s a URI for that...

Internet of Things

“20 Billion devices by2020” - GSMA


26Suddenly everything can “talk”...

Source: PSFK - http://bit.ly/aES59AWednesday, 25 May 2011

http://bit.ly/aES59A

http://bit.ly/aES59A

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Real-time streams...Right-time Web

Social stream

Information stream

Entertainment stream

Event stream

Sensor stream


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Sight(Camera)

Sound(Microphone)

Touch(NFC)

Direction(Compass)

Touch(Temperature)



Mobile is centre stage of right-time Web...

TheCloud

Social stream

Information stream

Entertainment stream

Event stream

Sensor stream


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realtime

storage

realtime

processing

realtime

output

Distributed sensor grids

“Sensor Net”

Big Data is a major accomplice in the right-time revolution...

Key enabler: Big Data!

Creating value from unthinkably large amounts of data

Many challenges = opportunities


30M2M opportunities...

•No clear standardization•Ecosystems yet to emerge

Asset trackingFleet managementMonitoringSecurityTelematicsWireless POSmHealthSmart Grids

M2MServices

CloudPaaS

AxedaJasper WirelessSensorLogicSierra WirelessILS Technology“Big Data”

Embedded LinuxAndroid/Meego/...

Platforms

Wireless

Embedded SIM$3-5 ARPUs

Opportunity: M2M ecosystems


MobileCloud

Opportunities

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IaaS

PaaS

SaaS

AWSRightscaleRackspaceNimbula

mPaaS

mSaaS

CaaSNaaS

Skype/Jajah/MicrosoftBlueVia (Telefonica)New entrants!

XaaSFacebookApple?O2?New entrants!

Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud...

NodesterDuostackHerokuForce.comdotcloud

gnipIMifiedchargifyapigee

connFuTropoCorona/Appcelerator?New entrants!

flurryallifyheyzapNew entrants!


32The innovation advantage...

Software DNA

Increasingly, the dialogue withcustomers is via software (apps)


33Where are we headed?

100 GHz100 Mbps100 TB100 Sensors

The not-so-distant future...

Just imagine the possibilities...Wednesday, 25 May 2011

[email protected]

@pgolding

(C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010

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Thank You


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mobile ecosystem dynamics (cto briefing)

Technology

mobile experience

mobile apps

app experience

mobile landscape

digital experience inuence

mobile product strategies

digital experience economy

mobile software stack