rps chart pack june 2016
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June 2016RPS Group
The Western Australian Economy and
Property Markets
Chart Pack | June 2016
PO Box 465, Subiaco Western Australia 6904W rpsgroup.com.au
ContactWA Head Office p. +61 8 9211 1111Level 2, 27-31 Troode Street w. www.rpsgroup.com.auWEST PERTH WA 6005
Tim Connoley Technical Director - Economics
About Economics at RPSRPS is an international consultancy providing world-class local solutions in energy and resources, infrastructure, environment and urban growth. Our Economics team is well positioned to undertake comprehensive analysis of a range of business, community andgovernment issues and projects. Our key areas of expertise include:
• Urban Economics• Socio-Economics• Economic Development• Regulatory Economics• Corporate Strategy and Advice
RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016 2
Figure 1 - Population Change, Western Australia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
-4,000
1,000
6,000
11,000
16,000
21,000
26,000
31,000
Popu
latio
n Gr
owth
(p.a
.)
Chan
ge in
Pop
ulat
ion
(qua
rter
ly)
Natural Increase Net Overseas MigrationNet Interstate Migration Annual Growth Source: ABS 3101.0, RPS Group
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
Chan
ge in
Em
ploy
men
t (m
onth
ly)
Change in Employment (Trend)Unemployment Rate (Trend)Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj.) Source: ABS 6202.0, RPS Group
Figure 2 - Labour Market, Western Australia
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Reta
il Tu
rnov
er G
row
th (p
.a.)
Western Australia AustraliaSource: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
Hom
e Lo
an R
ates
(p.a
.)
Standard Variable Three-Year FixedSource: RBA, RPS Group
Figure 3 - Retail Turnover
Figure 5 - Mortgage Rates, Australia
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Food HouseholdGoods
DepartmentStores
Other Retailing Take Away/Restaurants
Reta
il Tu
rnov
er G
row
th (p
.a.)
Previous 12 Months Ten-Year AverageSource: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17
Cash
Rat
e (%
)
27-Jan 14-Apr-16 Source: ASX, RPS Group
Figure 6 - Cash Rate Expectations, Australia
Figure 4 - Retail Turnover, Western Australia
Western Australian Economy
3RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
Figure 7 - Merchandise Exports, Western Australia
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Iron
Ore
Pric
e ($
US/
tonn
e)
Mer
hcan
dise
Exp
orts
($ m
illio
ns/m
onth
)
Merchandise Exports Iron Ore Price
62% FE spot (CFR Tianjin port)
Source: ABS 5368.0, RPS Group
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Wag
e Pr
ice
Gro
wth
(p.a
.)
Western Australia AustraliaSource: ABS 6345.0, RPS Group
Figure 8 - Wage Price Index
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Cons
umer
Pric
e In
dex
Gro
wth
(p.a
.)
Perth AustraliaSource: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Non
-Res
iden
tial B
uild
ing
Wor
k ($
mill
ion/
quar
ter)
Work Done Building ApprovalsSource: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 9 - Consumer Price Index
Figure 11 - Non-Residential Construction, WA
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Food
Housing
Education
Accommodation& Travel
Transport
Health
Household Equipment& Services
Utilities
Inflation (p.a.)
Ten-year average (p.a.) Previous 12 MonthsSource: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800
Commercial
Industrial
Education
Aged Care
Health
Entertainment& Recreation
Short StayAccommodation
Value of Work ($ millions)
Previous 12 Months Five-Year AverageSource: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 12 - Non-Residential Construction, WA
Figure 10 - Inflation, Western Australia
Western Australian Economy
4RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
Figure 13 - Engineering Work, Western Australia
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Engi
neer
ing
Wor
k ($
m/q
uart
er, p
rice-
adju
sted
)
Seasonally Adjusted Trend Source: ABS 8762.0, RPS Group
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Priv
ate
Capi
tal E
xpen
ditu
re ($
mill
ions
p.a
.)
Mining Manufacturing Other Industries Source: ABS 5625.0, RPS Group
Figure 14 - Private Capital Expenditure, WA
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
Expl
orat
ion
Expe
nditu
re ($
mill
ions
/qua
rter
)
Mining Petroleum Source: ABS 8412.0, RPS Group
Figure 15 - Exploration Expenditure, Western
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Chan
ge in
Exp
endi
ture
(p.a
.)
State Final Demand Private InvestmentPrivate Consumption Public Expenditure Source: ABS 5206.0, RPS Group
Figure 16 - Economic Growth, Western Australia
Western Australian Economy
5RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
Figure 17 & 18 - Owner Occupier Housing Finance, Western Australia
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Ow
ner-
Occ
upie
r Loa
n Co
mm
itmen
ts (m
onth
ly)
Established Dwellings New DwellingsSource: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Ow
ner-
Occ
upie
r Loa
n Co
mm
itmen
ts (m
onth
ly)
Upgraders First Home BuyersSource: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Hom
e Lo
an C
omm
itmen
ts ($
mill
ions
/mon
th)
Investors Upgraders First Home BuyersSource: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
Figure 19 - Housing Finance Value, Western Australia
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Firs
t Hom
e O
wne
r Gra
nt A
pplic
atio
ns (m
onth
ly)
Established Homes New DwellingsSource: Treasury (WA), RPS Group
Figure 20 - First Home Buyers,Western Australia
Residential Property | WA
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Resi
dent
ial C
onst
ruct
ion
(dw
ellin
gs p
.a.)
Houses Commenced Dwellings CommencedHouses Completed Dwellings Completed Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 21 - Residential Construction, Western Australia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Build
ing
Appr
oval
s (dw
ellin
gs/m
onth
)
Houses Other DwellingsSource: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 22 - Building Approvals, Western Australia
6RPS Group | Chart Pack | June 2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Resi
dent
ial P
rope
rty
List
ings
(qua
rter
ly)
Source: REIWA, RPS Group
Figure 23 - Property Listings, Metropolitan Perth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Resi
dent
ial V
acan
t Lan
d Li
stin
gs (m
onth
ly)
Source: REIWA, RPS Group
Figure 24 - Land Listings, Metropolitan Perth
Residential Property | Perth
Figure 25 - Property Sales, Metropolitan Perth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Mul
it-U
nit D
wel
ling
Sale
s (w
eekl
y)
Hou
se S
ales
(wee
kly)
Houses Sold Houses Trend Units Trend Units Sold Source: REIWA, RPS Group
0
50
100
150
200
250
Dev
elop
er Lo
t Sal
es In
dex
(wee
kly)
Sales Trend Rolling Average Source: UDIA Land Snapshot, RPS Group
Figure 26 - Developer Land Sales, Greater Perth
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Build
ing
Appr
oval
s (dw
ellin
gs/m
onth
)
Houses Other DwellingsSource: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 27 - Building Approvals, Greater Perth
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Num
ber o
f Lot
s (an
nual
ised
)
Applications Lodged Conditional Approvals Final ApprovalsSource: WAPC, RPS Group
Figure 28 - Residential Subdivisions, Greater Perth
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