noaa climate program update
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NOAA Climate Program Update
Chet KoblinskyNOAA Climate Program DirectorFebruary 2005
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NOAA Strategy
Vision
A vastly enhanced scientific understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem available to society and national leadership as a basis for critical social and economic policy decisions
Mission
To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation’s economic, social and environmental needs.
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NOAA Goals
Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management
Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond
Serve society’s needs for weather and water information
Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation
Provide critical support for NOAA’s mission
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FY05 Enacted Budget by Goal
Weather & Water 21%Climate 6%
Ecosystems 35%
Commerce &Transportation 4%
Mission Support 34%
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Climate ForcingClimate &
EcosystemsObservations &
AnalysisRegional
Decision SupportPredictions &Projections
Pro
gra
mPro
gra
mss
Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond
OUTCOMES
1. A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions
2. Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions
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NOAA Climate Program Overarching Organization (NEW)
NOAA Management
NOAA Planning
NOAA Research
Climate Program Board
NOAA Climate Program Office
External Advisory
PanelProvides scientific and programmatic advice
Develops program
All NOAA represented
NEWAdministers goal and programs
Includes Climate OfficeOffice of Global ProgramsClimate Observations and Services ProgramOffice of Climate Observations and ARGOArctic Research Office
ScienceAdvisor
yBoard
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NOAA’s Climate ActivitiesFY05 Enacted Budget
Climate Change Science Program 31%Climate and Global Change, Climate Obs and Services,CCRI
Mission Support 36%Satellites, Platforms, Facilities
Operations 18%Data Centers, Predictions, Delivery
Research Laboratories 15%
NOAA Planning - Execution Cycle
Planning
NOAA Strategic Plan
Programming
Goal and Goal-Wide Program Plans
Execution
Individual Performance Plans
Budgeting
Program AOPsLO & SO AOPs
Budget Operating Plan
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GEOSS Global Earth Observing System of Systems
A distributed system of systems
Improves coordination of strategies and observation systems
Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks
Identifies gaps in our global capacity
Facilitates exchange of data and information
Improves decision-makers’ abilities to address pressing policy issues
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Observations and Analysis Integrated Ocean Observation System: Global
The global ocean
component of the observing
system is primarily
focused on climate.
FY06 PriorityIndian Ocean
FY07 PriorityArctic
Expansion
ParticipantsPMELAOML
External
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Observations and Analysis Integrated Surface Observing Systems
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are needed to see this picture.
An integrated surface observing system is being developed for the
US.
Contributing SystemsClimate Reference Network
COOPerative Observing Network(Weather Reference Network)
Marine BuoysASOS
SNOTEL (USDA)RAWS (BLM)
Regional and State Mesonets
Major workshop last year developed a strategy. Reports are
available.
ParticipantsNCDCNWS
External
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Observations and Analysis Upper Air Observing Systems
NOAA oversees a number of upper atmospheric observing systems for climate. In order to plan for an integrated upper air observing system, we are conducting a series of workshops, joint with GCOS:
• Objectives and Requirements Boulder Feb 8-11, 2005
• Measurement Approaches Seattle Late May, 2005
• Implementation Planning Washington Fall, 2005
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Observations and AnalysisOngoing Analysis
In partnership with NSF and NASA, NOAA is developing a
program on “Ongoing Analysis” for the global atmosphere,
oceans, and land, as well as focused regional analyses for select regions, such as North
America and the Arctic.
Major workshops for atmosphere, ocean and Arctic
were completed in FY04.
FY06 Priority: AtmosphereFY07 Priority: Arctic
ParticipantsNWS/NCEP
Climate Diagnostics CenterArctic Office
Office of Climate ObservationsExternal
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Climate Forcing
• Carbon (and other Greenhouse Gases)• Atmosphere and Ocean• Monitoring, Analysis, Model improvements• FY06 Priority: North American Carbon Program• Participants: CMDL, PMEL, AOML, GFDL, External
• Atmospheric Composition • Aerosols and Ozone• Field programs, Laboratory studies, Model improvements• FY06 Priority: Indirect Effect, Houston area field program• Participants: Aeronomy Lab, CMDL, GFDL, External
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Climate ForcingCarbon Cycle Atmospheric Observing System
The vertical profiles of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane are being measured at 17 aircraft and 3 tall tower sites as part of the North American Carbon Program. When the network is complete (36 total sites by FY2008), regional information on carbon dioxide sources and uptake in North America will be available.
500 meter Carbon Gas SamplingTower
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Climate Forcing NEAQS - ITCT 2004
New England Air Quality Study - Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation
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Predictions and Projections
• Predictions• Weekly to Seasonal Operational Forecasts• New Coupled Climate Forecast System Model at NCEP• FY06 Priority: Climate Test Bed for Model Improvements• North American Monsoon Experiment completed• Participants: NWS/NCEP, CDC, External (e.g., IRI)
• Projections• Scenarios and Assessments of Climate Change• New Coupled Climate Model• FY06+ Priority: CCSP “If…then…scenarios” • Participants: GFDL, External
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Predictions and Projections IPCC Projections
Observed
Model
NOAA/GFDL has built a new coupled climate model for projections. This model has been used to produce projections for IPCC AR4.
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Climate and Ecosystems
North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity Program
What: Understanding and Forecasting ecosystem response to changing Climate in the North Pacific
Why: Alaska supplies about one half of seafood caught in US
ParticipantsNOAA FisheriesNOAA Research
Catc
h
(million
s)
Impact of Quasi-Decadal Climate Patterns on
Salmon
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Developing a Climate Service
• Regional Decision Support
• Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA)
• Regional Climate Centers (External partnership through NCDC)
• FY05-06 Priority: Climate Impacts in Coastal Region Extension Agents
• FY07 Priority: Delivery of Products and Services through Local Forecast Offices (NWS)
• Sectoral Decision Support
• Refocusing of Climate and Societal Interaction group in OGP
• Health, Agriculture, Energy, Urban, Coastal, Sustainability, Human Dimensions
Regional Decision Support
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The RISAs provide a direct connection between research and end users. They have a strong focus on drought issues, how current climate products are used and interpreted, and what are the needs for next generation regional climate information products.
FY06 - ALASKA
Regional Decision SupportRegional Integrated Science and Assessments
Pacific
Northwest
South EastConsortium
Western Water Assessment
CLIMAS
California
Applications
Project
New England
Carolinas
Hawaiian and PacificIslands
*
*
RISA research is:
• User focused• Interdisciplinary• Place-based• Considers multiple stressors• Focuses on key regional issues• Provides and assesses uses ofclimate information and products for regional decision support
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Arctic Challenges
• What are today’s climate challenges in the Arctic? • What is role of NOAA’s climate program in the Arctic?• What are important Arctic climate products and services for NOAA to develop and deliver?• What is the vision for an end-to-end NOAA Arctic climate service?
• Who are key partners?• What are the requirement drivers?• What are the requirements?• Who are the key stakeholders?• What are the phenomena?
• How can NOAA capitalize on the IPY to develop these services?
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NOAA Climate Program BACKUP
OUT- COMES
Ecosystems
Climate
Weather & Water
Commerce & Trans
Mis
sio
n G
oal
Tea
ms
NOAA Strategic
Plan
Const
ituen
ts
Stakeholders
Empl
oyee
sPar
tner
s
Users
NOAA Goal-Wide Programs, Staff Offices, & Councils
NOAA Line Offices
Players in the Cycle
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