adapting to climate change vs. traditional flood ... · • climate change adaptation does not have...

Adapting to Climate Change vs. Traditional Flood Mitigation

What’s the Difference?

MAY 22, 2019

SESSION E8Sea Level Rise adaptation

SIDE B

Justin VandeverPE

SIDE A

Vince Geronimo PE, CFM

Adapting to Climate Change vs. Traditional Flood Mitigation

What’s the Difference?

Presentation Overview

Incorporating climate change considerations into traditional flood mitigation project development processes will improve the

resilience of communities

• Critical Flood Infrastructure – How’s it holding up?• Mitigation Strategies – Presently• Mitigation vs Adaptation Process – Unified!• Mainstreaming Adaptation – Federal, State & Local Approaches• Opportunities, Concerns and Recommendations

Mitigation and Adaptation… for Flood Managers

• Traditional Flood Mitigation - is the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters

• Climate Change Adaptation – an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

…Resilience, Managed Risks and Vulnerability, Preparedness, and Sustainability are outcomes

Resilience? Can you be more specific?

• Resilience - a capacity to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from significant multi-hazard threats with minimum damage to social well-being, the economy, and the environment

• Engineering Resilience & Community Resilience – work together to absorb and recover from shock

• Climate Resilience – the capacity of an individual, a community, an organization, or a natural system to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stress, and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience

…Ecological, Socioecological, Urban, and Disaster Resilience, to name others

Traditional Flood Infrastructure

ASCE 2017Deteriorating infrastructure is

impeding our ability to compete in the thriving global economy, and improvements are necessary to ensure our

country is built for the future.

Critical Thresholds are Shifting

• Floodplain Management Standards have not changed since the 70/80’s

• Extremes are changing − Sea Levels are increasing − Hurricanes are exceeding our

expectations

• Disaster relief costs are escalating

Figure source: USGCRP updated from Karl et al. 2009

Climate Related Flood Hazards

Rising Waters• Tidal inundation• Extreme tide

flooding• Emergent

groundwater• Liquefaction risk

Intense Precipitation• Stormwater

flooding• Riverine flooding• Atmospheric

rivers• Coastal-riverine

flooding

Waves• Wave runup and

overtopping• Shoreline erosion• Structure damage

Rising Disaster Costs (Billions)

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2019). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

“NFIP is not designed to deal with truly extreme events.”

– D. Horn (5/19) to Congress

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

Mitigation and Adaptation Drivers

Disaster Identify Risk Assess Risk Communicate Risk Mitigate Risk

Post-Disaster Mitigation Process

Flood risk threshold changes due to climatic and geomorphological factors, economic or societal drivers can also prompt mitigation/adaptation actions

Mitigation Preparedness Community Outreach DisasterPro-Active Mitigation Approach

Review Historical

Data

Hydrology &

Hydraulics

Establish a Threshold for Risk Tolerance

InfrastructureAges and

Deteriorates

Construct Infrastructure

Engineering Design &

Permitting

Appropriate Funding

Operation & Maintenance

Flood Hazard Mitigation Timeline

Driver Risk Assessment Engineering Analysis Funding & Investment Construction Management

Traditional Mitigation Process - Timeline

Flood Mitigation Approaches

• Structural - floodwalls/seawalls, floodgates, levees, and elevating structures

• Non-Structural - property buyouts, permanent relocation, zoning, subdivision, and building codes

• Nature-based solutions or Hybrid − Combine engineered, nature-based

and/or indirect actions− Green infrastructure methods use an

ecosystem-based approach to replicate a site’s pre-development, natural hydrologic function

Includes SLR!

Mitigation vs. Adaptation Process Flowcharts

Mitigation Process – FEMA Risk MAP program Adaptation Process – San Francisco Planning

How do we combine flood mitigation and adaptation?

Flood Hazard Mitigation

Climate Adaptation

The old way of doing things

Mainstreaming

“ClimateAdaptiveFlood HazardMitigation”

The new way of doing things

What do we mean by “mainstreaming”?

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into the flood mitigation process.

• Climate change is only one of many challenges facing agencies

• Very few projects will be implemented solely for the purposes of climate change “adaptation”

• Look for opportunities to insert climate change considerations into already established processes

• “Flatten” the adaptation learning curve

Mainstreaming:“systematically including climate risk and adaptation considerations in established planning, decision-making, design, permitting, and implementation processes”Adapted from adaptationcommunity.net

How do we combine flood mitigation and adaptation?

Examples of mainstreaming:

• Planning | Capital Development | Operations & Maintenance | Administration strategies (SF Bay Metropolitan Transportation Commission)

• Adopt climate change policies (for example, a policy to incorporate climate change considerations into decisions and activities) (e.g., California DOT)

• Incorporate climate change risk as criteria in Capital Improvement Program project prioritization (e.g., City of Miami Beach, Pinellas County)

• Climate risk checklist for project planning and design (e.g., San Francisco Capital Planning Guidance)

• Update design standards and guidelines (e.g., New York City Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines)

Assess Risk

Map & Assess Vulnerability

Review Climate

Projections


Review Historical

Data

Hydrology &

Hydraulics



Deteriorates



Permitting

Appropriate Funding



Mainstreaming Adaptation

Climate Science Data and Resources• Climate science data is prevalent and emerging

− U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit https://toolkit.climate.gov/− FEMA https://www.fema.gov/climate-change− IPCC https://www.ipcc.ch/data/− Downscaled climate data (e.g., CMIP, NASA, Cal-Adapt in California, others)− State and regional sea level rise projections

https://toolkit.climate.gov/

https://www.fema.gov/climate-change

https://www.ipcc.ch/data/

Vulnerability and Risk Assessments

Ports (marine and

aviation)

Wastewater (buried

infrastructure, treatment

plants, pump stations, outfalls)

Stormwater (storm drains, pump stations,

outfalls)

Transportation (road, rail,

transit)

Assess Risk


Review Climate

Projections


Review Historical

Data

Hydrology &

Hydraulics



Deteriorates



Permitting

Appropriate Funding


Account for Uncertainty



Accounting for uncertainty

• Current/Traditional Engineering Analysis− Hydrology: 1-Percent Plus− Hydraulic Profile: Freeboard, Risk-Based Analysis− Mapping: Probabilistic 200-year return period

• Climate Change Adaptation Data Integration − Extreme value distribution models, integrating statistical climate uncertainty− Probabilistic sea level rise projections (e.g., California and Washington)

“We’re building tomorrow’s flood problems, today.”

- C. Berginnis, CFM (5/19) to Congress

Image by Signe Wilkinson, 5/20/2011

Assess Risk


Review Climate

Projections


Review Historical

Data

Hydrology &

Hydraulics



Deteriorates



Permitting

Appropriate Funding



Adaptation Funding



Vulnerability, Risk, Adaptation and Residual Losses

Sources: European Commission – Joint Research Centre and IPCC 2014

Suffering

Resiliency

Perceived Costs and Risks

• Client pressure to choose the least costly alternative and not “over-adapt”

• Design professionals do not want to make suggestions that are not required by code

• Property owners and especially developers are not looking toward the future

• Owners/clients do not see any near-term reduction in cost credit from reduction in Risk

• Pushing for resilience standards viewed as a double-edged sword –uncertain what unintended consequences may arise

Assess Risk


Review Climate

Projections



Review Historical

Data

Hydrology &

Hydraulics



Deteriorates



Permitting

Appropriate Funding



Adaptation Funding

Build AgileFeatures

Adapt Infrastructure


Climate Adaptive Flood Hazard Mitigation Strategies

Strategies should be evaluated across a range of evaluation factors:• Technical effectiveness• Socio-economic• Financial• Environmental• Administrative / Governance

Temporary Living with Water Permanent

Climate Adaptive Flood Hazard Mitigation Strategies

24” SLR

68” SLR

City of Olympia, WA

http://olympiawa.gov/slr

Assess Risk


Review Climate

Projections

Mitigation



Review Historical

Data

Hydrology &

Hydraulics



Deteriorates



Permitting

Appropriate Funding



Adaptation Funding

Build AgileFeatures

Adapt Infrastructure

Monitor Environmental

Conditions

Monitoring Conditions

• Hydrodynamic Flood Warning Systems− Adapt VA - Evidence-based planning for changing climate− UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Resilient Futures project:

− Scripps’ Flood Warning System for Imperial Beach, CA

• Monitoring to Inform Adaptation Triggers− Olympia, WA – SLR Response Plan identifies monitoring as key component of

implementing future adaptation. City looking into installing new tide gage to fill gap in NOAA coverage in southern Puget Sound and record local SLR and measure ongoing subsidence.

FEMA – Mitigation but leaning-Adaptation

• FEMA Administrator Policy FEMA Climate Change Adaptation Policy (2012)

• National Mitigation Framework (2016)• Draft National Mitigation Investment Strategy

(NMIS) (2018) – themes include:

Improved

Coordination

1

Increased

Investments

2

Shared Fiscal

Responsibility

3

Greater Access to

Data

4

Risk-Informed

Communication

5

Resilient Built

Environment

6

Other Fed Actions to Encourage Adaptation

• The President’s Climate Action Plan (6/2013) (rescinded 3/2017)− Presidential Executive Order 13653 (11/2013) (revoked 3/2017)

• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers – Engineering with Nature - Natural and Nature-Based Features projects

• NOAA’s Adapting Stormwater Management for Coastal Floods• U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program (USGCRP) - Adaptation

Science Interagency Working Group

States Adapting (California Example)

• 2018 California State Hazard Mitigation Plan • California Senate Bill No. 379 (2015)• California Adaptation Planning Guide - Set of 4

• Adaptation Clearinghouse – Find Resources on Climate Adaptation and Resiliency https://resilientca.org/

https://resilientca.org/

Adopting Local Higher Standards

• Local Hazard Mitigation Plans − Incorporate climate change adaptation − Update every five years & after a disaster

• Update Local Planning Regulations− Manage Development in High-Risk Areas− Prevent Infrastructure Expansion in High-Risk Areas− Protect Buildings and Infrastructure− Preserve High-Hazard Areas as Open Space− Protect and Restore Natural Buffers− Increase Awareness of Sea Level Rise and changing precipitation patterns

• Hazard mitigation planning for future conditions, is eligible for CRS credit – That’s climate change adaptation!

BIG Opportunities

• Long-term reauthorization of NFIP− High-risk property buy-outs after disasters− Bring Vulnerable properties into compliance− National “homeowner right-to-know” provision− Improve monitoring, tracking, and disclosure of data

• U.S. Infrastructure Bill− Include measures to address degrading-impacts of climate

change on existing aging infrastructure− Adopt a flood protection standard for federally-funded

infrastructure projects− Flood projects should be designed for more intense storms− Build in adaptation measures for a longer asset life-cycle

Shared Responsibility

Closing Remarks

• Climate change adaptation does not have to be a new and intimidating process

• We need to change the way we plan, design, and implement flood mitigation projects by mainstreaming climate change adaptation into established project development processes

• Failure to adapt could lead to legal liability of design professionals, contractors, developers, realtors, & insurance agents, and governments/government officials

Contact Information

Vince Geronimo, PE, [email protected]

Justin Vandever, [email protected]

The new way of doing things

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

adapting to climate change vs. traditional flood ... · • climate change adaptation does not have...

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