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Stephen Handler Stephen Handler BIA Partners in Action Meeting July 2016 Climate Change Adaptation: Rules of Thumb and Real-World Examples

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Page 1: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Stephen Handler

Stephen Handler BIA Partners in Action Meeting July 2016

Climate Change Adaptation: Rules of Thumb and Real-World Examples

Page 2: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Northern Institute of Applied

Climate Science

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/

Climate

Carbon

Bioenergy

Page 3: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Why should I care?

Page 4: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc

NIACS Climate Projects

Climate Change Response

Framework

forestadaptation.org

Climate Change Resource Center

climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/northernforests

USDA Northern Forests Climate

Hub

Resource center for natural

resource professionals

USDA agency climate

change support network Collaboratively putting

adaptation in action

Page 5: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Adaptation

Adaptation = taking action to prepare forests for climate change.

Adaptation activities can build on sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of forests

Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010

Page 6: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

When we started…

Page 7: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

…so we thought we’d...

Page 8: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Then we listened.

Page 9: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

We developed resources

Place-based, transparent Vulnerability Assessments

• Examine a range of future climates

• Do not make recommendations

• Sources of information: • Models • Published research • Local managers and

experts

Download: http://climateframework.org/vulnerability-assessment

Page 10: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

We developed resources

Web-based, national resource for land managers

• Connects land managers with useable science to address climate change in planning and application

• Forest Service effort

www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc

Page 11: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

…and a process to use them.

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543 and www.AdaptationWorkbook.org

A flexible workbook and menu to address diverse needs

• Designed for a variety of land owners with diverse goals

• Does not make recommendations

• Menu of adaptation strategies for forest management

• New online version!

Page 12: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

1. DEFINE management

goals.

2. ASSESS climate change

impacts.

3. EVALUATE management

goals.

4. IDENTIFY adaptation

tactics.

5. MONITOR and evaluate

effectiveness.

…and a process to use them.

Page 13: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Real-world examples

www.forestadaptation.org/demonstration-projects

Case studies to help the whole community learn

Page 14: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

More Real-World Examples

www.cakex.org and https://toolkit.climate.gov/

Page 15: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Adaptation Rules of Thumb

• Accept uncertainty

• Focus on your top priorities

• Take “win-win” opportunities

• Adaptation will be custom-built every time

Page 16: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

An Uncertain Future

• Don’t wait for a crystal ball

Page 17: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

We Don’t Need Certainty

• Instead: think about risk management!

Page 18: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Changing Precipitation

Precipitation projections, 2071-2099, National Climate Assessment 2014

Page 19: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Days Above 90ºF

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/dyndown

MRI Model IPSL Model

Page 20: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Species Habitat Shifts 2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

Quaking Aspen

Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service)

Current Importance

Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

Page 21: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Adaptation Rules of Thumb

• Accept uncertainty

• Focus on your top priorities

• Take “win-win” opportunities

• Adaptation will be custom-built every time

Page 22: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Focus on Your Top Priorities

Page 23: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Focus on Your Top Priorities

• You can’t always get what you want

Page 24: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Adaptation Rules of Thumb

• Accept uncertainty

• Focus on your top priorities

• Take “win-win” opportunities

• Adaptation will be custom-built every time

Page 25: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Take Win-Win Opportunities

• A lot of “smart forestry” already supports climate change adaptation

Page 26: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Adaptation Adaptation actions may not look that different from current management actions, especially in the near term.

Same actions– climate change

just makes them that

much more important

Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness

New & different actions, even some that seem wild &

crazy

Page 27: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Adaptation Rules of Thumb

• Accept uncertainty

• Focus on your top priorities

• Take “win-win” opportunities

• Adaptation will be custom-built every time

Page 28: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

A Customized Approach

Encourage Change

Resist Change

Page 29: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Location, Location, Location Research and assessments describe broad trends but

local conditions and management make the difference.

Local knowledge and experience is crucial!

Page 30: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Real-world examples

www.forestadaptation.org/demonstration-projects

Page 31: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Menominee Oak Wilt Restoration

www.forestadaptation.org/node/279

Page 32: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Keweenaw Bay Indian Community

Sugar Maple Diversity

www.forestadaptation.org/node/392

Page 33: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Red Lake DNR: Integrated Resource

Management Plan

www.forestadaptation.org/node/540

Page 34: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

How can NIACS help?

Page 35: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Hands-on workshops! Forest Adaptation Planning and Practices

www.forestadaptation.org/fapp

Bring your own project

Use the Adaptation Workbook

Leave with a custom-built adaptation plan

Page 36: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Education and training!

2070-2100 High

Current

Page 37: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

And more…

Page 38: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Thank You!

Get in touch with questions: [email protected], (906) 482-6303

Learn more: www.forestadaptation.org

Page 39: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Michigan DNR: Barry State Game Area

www.forestadaptation.org/node/516

Page 40: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

L.A.D. Foundation: Pioneer Forest S

tructu

re

Composition

Adaptation ≈ Restoration

Past Future

Present

www.forestadaptation.org/pioneer_forest

Page 41: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Florence County: Forest Restoration

www.forestadaptation.org/node/516

Page 42: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Private landowner: Matt Watkeys

Page 43: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Private landowner: Warren Suchovsky

www.forestadaptation.org/node/520

Page 44: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

• Fish habitat (Classes or 13 individual species)

• Stream temp. class changes

• Streamflow exceedance

FishVis

http://ccviewer.wim.usgs.gov/FishVis/#, Jana Stewart = [email protected]

Page 45: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature, 1901-2011

www.climatewizard.org

Observed Temperature Changes

Page 46: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

www.climatewizard.org

Observed Precipitation Changes Change in Seasonal Precip, 1901-2011

Page 47: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Frequency of 3”+ rainstorms

Observed Trends in Extreme Weather

Minnesota Michigan Wisconsin

www.climatewizard.org

Page 48: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Lake Superior near-surface temp increased 4.5°F from 1979-2006

Lake Temperature

Source: Austin and Coleman 2007

Page 49: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

• 12-24 fewer soil frost days per yr since 1900

• 1-2 more freeze-thaw cycles per yr since 1900

• 6-8 day advance in growing season since 1950

• 2 days/decade earlier ice out since 1950

Observed Trends in Phenology

Sinha et al. 2010, Hodson 1991, Bradley et al. 1999, Kling et al. 2003, Mishra et al. 2011

Page 50: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Other On-going Stories Climate is not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it.

Frerker et al. 2014, Nowacki and Abrams 2014

Page 51: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

OK, so what do we expect

in the future?

(You folks chime in here…)

Page 52: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Last Spring Frost

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

Low High

Page 53: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Snowpack >10in.

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

Low High

Page 54: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Nights Below 0 ºF

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

Low High

Page 55: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Winter Severity Index

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

Low High Current

Page 56: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Impacts on Forests

• Longer growing season

• CO2 fertilization

• Altered soil moisture

• Extreme weather events

• Less frozen ground

• Increased fire risk

• Species range shifts

• Increased stressors

Sources: Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

Page 57: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Longer Growing Season Benefits:

- More time for growth!

Limits:

- Early bud break/loss of cold hardening

- Frost damage with spring frosts

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

Page 58: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

CO2 Fertilization Benefits:

- Increased growth

- Water-use efficiency

Limits:

- Other nutrients or water

- Stressors or disturbance

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011, Coture et al. 2015

Page 59: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Altered Soil Moisture

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but great risk of summer moisture stress

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Page 60: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Frozen ground conditions have decreased across over the last 60+ years – WI example

Less Frozen Ground

Source: C. Rittenhouse (UConn) and A. Rissman (UW-Madison), in review

0

50

100

150

1948 1963 1978 1993 2008

Num

ber

of d

ays

Onieda county

Season Frozen

Linear (Season) Linear (Frozen)

Frozen Ground Season Annual data Trend

0

50

100

150

1948 1963 1978 1993 2008

Num

ber

of d

ays

Onieda county

Season Frozen

Linear (Season) Linear (Frozen)

Frozen Ground Days Annual data Trend

Page 61: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Wildfire Risk

Source: Guyette et al. 2014, Tang et al. 2014, Miranda et al. 2012, Moritz et al. 2012, Nowacki et al. 2014

Fire may increase, because:

• Warmer/drier summers

• Increased mortality from stress, pests, events

• More frequent weather conditions that promote large fires

…or maybe not, because:

• Fire suppression will continue

• Spring/early summer moisture

• Current regeneration of more mesic species

• Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation

Page 62: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Species Range Shifts 2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

White Oak

Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service)

Current Importance

Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

Page 63: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Species Range Shifts 2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

Quaking Aspen

Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service)

Current Importance

Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

Page 64: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Hemlock wooly adelgid: Pest limited by cold temps

Exotic Earthworms: Increase drought susceptibility

Invasive Plants: Outcompete stressed trees

Increased Stressors

Many forests are already under stress from other causes.

Climate change could make forests more susceptible to existing or new stressors.

Images: US Forest Service and L. Mehrhoff (UConn: invasives.org)

Page 65: Climate Change Adaptation - BIA€¦ · NIACS Climate Projects Climate Change Response Framework forestadaptation.org Climate Change Resource Center climatehubs.oce.usda. gov/northernforests

Forest Type Vulnerability

Download: www.forestadaptation.org

Lowland conifer Upland spruce-fir Aspen-birch Lowland/riparian hardwoods Red pine Northern hardwoods Jack pine Oak White pine

Acid peatland Forested rich peatland Wet forest Managed aspen Managed red pine Fire-dependent forest Mesic hardwood forest Floodplain forest

Upland spruce-fir Lowland conifer Red pine/ white pine Jack pine Aspen-birch Northern hardwoods Lowland/riparian hardwoods Oak associations Barrens