Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, Interactions Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

Chris Stokes & many others

18 March 2014 | Future Farmers - CFF | Lansdown

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Cover 3 Broad Themes:

Climate Adaptation Context

Becoming less vulnerable

Adaptation Interactions with Mitigation

Reducing unintended consequences

Socioeconomic Aspects

Not just technical solutions

Climate Adaptation Context

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

becoming less vulnerable

Historic Climate Change Emphasis – “Plan A” Describing problem (potential impacts) & Understanding causes Motivating for Mitigation action in a ‘Static’ world

Exposure Amount of

Climate Change

Sensitivity Impact per

Unit Change

Potential

Impact

Available

Options

Supporting

Policies

Individual

Capability

Vulnerability

Adaptability

Adaptive

Capacity

unrealistic : no response

range of social factors important in

determining effectives of response

Mitigation

NGS Climate Strategy Workshop| Stokes, Marshall, Macleod

Social Climate

Sensitivity

(Adaptation) Reduce sensitivity or

Offset impacts

Change, Adaptation & Mitigation - ‘Plan B’ Simultaneous changes, growing proportion of Adaptation Understand & reduce vulnerability, minimize conflicts

Exposure Amount of

Climate Change

AgroEcological

Sensitivity

Potential

Impact

Available

Options

Supporting

Policies

Individual

Capability

Vulnerability

Adaptability

Adaptive

Capacity

unrealistic : no response

Adaptation Reduce sensitivity or

Offset impacts

NGS Climate Strategy Workshop| Stokes, Marshall, Macleod

Social Climate

Sensitivity

Mitigation

Sensitivity to Changing Climate Agriculture depends on climate-sensitive natural resource base

Natural

Resources

Climate Change

Ultimate

Impacts

Crops &

Vegetation

Pests &

Diseases

1) CO2

2) Temperature

3) Rainfall

4) Human

responses &

context

(Adaptation)

Livestock

Variation: seasonal, annual, cycles

What actions can be taken to assist the industry to become more resilient in coping with change?

Adaptation - Mitigation

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

reducing unintended consequences

Adaptation Options Mitigation Consequences Implications for >> GHG Env

On-farm Incremental Changes (Best Practice +)

Coping with risk & uncertainty: seasonal forecasts, opportunistic planting = +

Nutrient management: maintain plant quality and efficient N use (fert, legumes, var.) = +

Water use efficiency: improved irrigation, planting practices, cropping systems (-) + (-)

Cooling (animals, animal waste, hort.): shade structures, ventilation, air conditioning (-) =

Monitoring: Routine record keeping of weather, pest and diseases, inputs & outputs = =

Modifications (timing, spacing, varieties) to improve yield, quality, and resource use = =

Transformation

Land use/location change & diversification: cost/benefit analyses, improve water use

efficiency/profit, incentives and support for early adopters ? ?

Product diversification: identify options, consumer flexibility, develop new markets,

renewable energy (+) ?

Co-ordinated Regional Actions

Pest, Weeds, Catchments: regional integrated pest management, predictive tools,

monitoring, quarantine, fire (-) =

Transport , Infrastructure, Value chains: water distribution, water recycling, harvest

logistics, transport networks, locations of processors, markets (inputs & outputs) ? =

Implications for >> GHG Env

Developing New/Improved Options

Climate forecasts & scenarios: combine trend & seasonal forecast, industry specific

metrics, improved GCMs = =

Process understanding (CO2, temp, rainfall, seasonality): effects on crops, animals,

pests, water, fire = =

Breeding: for changes in CO2, heat tolerant, drought tolerant, water use efficient

changes in seasonality = =

Management, Decision support tools: climate impacts, adaption options, seasonal

forecasts, intensified/integrated management = =

Policy, Process & Capacity

Interactions & participation: policy, science, managers = =

Capacity: communication, resourcing & incentives, uncertainty, capacity building = =

Mainstreaming CC considerations: especially water, drought, NRM, biodiversity, GHG + +

Monitoring, evaluation & adaptive learning: climate, knowledge of impacts,

effectiveness of actions (& why) = =

Water: effective water trading, incorporate CC into planning/allocations, flood risks = +

Food marketing & distribution to reduce waste, value chain efficiency + +

Adaptation Options Mitigation Consequences

Mitigation Options Adaptation Consequences Implications for >> Adpt Env

Reduce CH4 Emissions

Ruminant livestock (herd management, diet quality, rumen modifiers) (+) (+)

Reduce savanna fires (CH4 & N2O) (=) (+)

Reduce N2O Emissions

Efficient fertilizer management + +

Manage water logging (drainage & irrigation) = +

Manure management = +

Carbon Sequestration

Improved soil management & rehabilitation (=) +

Savanna trees (thickening & reduced clearing) (-) =

Agro-forestry +/- =

Fossil Fuel Substitution

Biofuels (ethanol & biomass burning) +/- =

On-farm renewable energy generation = =

Product substitution +/- ?

Indirect

Cost-price squeeze (higher input & processing costs) - (-)

Scenario >> 1990 2070L 2070H

1 Matching SR (trees & condition unchanged)

Soil C 0 +325 -112

Tree C 0 0 0

Cattle CH4 0 -42 +45

Total GHG 0 +282 -67

Stocking Rate 0% -38% +42%

2 C-> B Condition (ADDITIONAL Mgmt Effect)

Soil C -277 -150 -368

Tree C 0 0 0

Cattle CH4 +54 +36 +85

Total GHG -222 -114 -283

Stocking Rate +104% +136% +131%

3 Extra Trees (ADDITIONAL Mgmt Effect)

Soil C 0 0 0

Tree C -390 -390 -390

Cattle CH4 -29 -18 -53

Total GHG -419 -408 -443

Stocking Rate -28% -29% -35%

e.g.: Extensive Beef GHG & CC 2070 Temp & 10 pctl (L) and 90 pctl (H) rainfall

Climate Impacts & Autonomic adaptation: Soil C flux >> CH4 measures Potential autonomic incr. prod. GHG effects > mitigation

Improving land condition: win-win-win (adaptation, mitigation, environment) C seq. > incr. CH4 from incr SR Seq. C vulnerable to future climate change (downside risk)

Extra (mitigation) / uncontrolled (adaptation) trees: ~ -30% SR for ~ doubling trees (win-loss)

Adaptation-Mitigation Summary

Conflicts with Mitigation energy intensive (cooling), fire, fertilizer use, water use

Conflicts with Adaptation cost-price squeeze diversion of agriculture land/produce/resources to renewable energy and C sequestration

Synergies improved resource use efficiency (water, nutrients, livestock, energy) reinforces many Best Management Practices value chain efficiency (reduce waste)

Social Aspects

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

not just technical solutions

Social Dimensions Understand & reduce vulnerability

Exposure Amount of

Climate Change

Sensitivity Impact per

Unit Change

Potential

Impact

Available

Options

Supporting

Policies

Individual

Capability

Vulnerability

Adaptability

Adaptive

Capacity

Social Climate

Sensitivity

NGS Climate Strategy Workshop| Stokes, Marshall, Macleod

Climate Sensitivity Resource Dependency (Primary Industries Climate sensitive resources)

Attachment to occupation

Employability

Place attachment

Family characteristics

Networks

Business approach

Business characteristics ($)

Diversification

Local knowledge

Environmental awareness

Marshall: Society and Natural Resources (2011), Rural Sociology (2007)

1. Management of RISK and uncertainty

2. SKILLS for planning, experimenting, reorganising, learning

3. COPING Financial and psychological flexibility

4. INTEREST in change

Adaptive Capacity

Marshall: Ecology &Society (2007), Global Environmental Change (2010)

NGS Climate Strategy Workshop| Stokes, Marshall, Macleod

Key Social Considerations

People are vulnerable in different ways Requires different approaches for different ‘Types’ of people

Many farmers highly vulnerable to change Low Adaptive Capacity & High Sensitivy - 85% N. graziers

Many type of coping thresholds, some are close Threats to identity, Continuing in same place

Barriers to change are predictable but difficult to manage

What can be done? Enhancing adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity can be Enhanced

Encourage: • Networks • Strategic Skills (***) • Environmental Feedbacks & Awareness • Use of Technology • Financial Buffer

1. Individual?

2. Industry?

3. Community?

(Local … International)

Not necessarily compatible

Adaptation of What? Cross scales & Entities

NGS Climate Strategy Workshop| Stokes, Marshall, Macleod

Wrap-up

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Science & Policy challenges: ‘Plan B’ world (climate change * adaptation * mitigation) - potential conflicts

Strong adaptation-mitigation interactions possible: Size & scale of GHG pools/fluxes vs low/extensive productivity Sensitive to climate & management

Win-wins, not automatic: improved resource use efficiency (water, nutrients, livestock, engergy) reinforces many Best Management Practices reduced food waste, value chains

Social dimensions also important: Enhancing adaptive capacity Different ‘Types’ of people Individual AND Broad-scale responses

Key Messages:

Thank you Ecosystem Sciences | Climate Adaptation Flagship Chris Stokes Systems Ecologist

t +61 4 4753 8640 e chris.stokes@csiro.au w www.csiro.au

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP