5g’s impact on the rf front-end industry · 2020-02-22 · china office yole japan hq in lyon...
TRANSCRIPT
From Technologies to Market
5G’s impact on the RF Front-End
Industry
RF SiP China 2018
October 2018
Cédric [email protected]
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66
OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION
5G market drivers
5G frequency allocation
5G impact on technology evolution
Consequence on packaging technology
Market forecast, supply chain and market share
77| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
0
0.3
0.5
1
23
45
1015
20
Fre
quency
(GH
z)
5G APPLICATIONS
5G use cases extend far beyond mobile phone, from IoT to autonomous vehicle, creating new challenges for the network in terms of data rate and latency agility. 4K video streaming
New Gaming Content
Wireless VR
AR
Port Management
Medical Robot
Industrial Automation
Smart City
Remote Surveillance
360°Video Telepresence
Drone Delivery
Autonomous Vehicle
Agriculture
Real-time Translation
Advanced AI assistant
Connected Wearable
Cloud Computing
Connected Home
Smart Grid
Asset Tracking
Shared Utilities
Robotic Service
SUB-1 GHZ
SUB-6 GHZ
MMWAVE (>24GHZ)
Increasing data rate for mobile phones is supported by a move into the high frequency bands, firstly in the sub 6GHz regime, but also to mmWave wide bands.
8
FOCUS ON MOBILE: HIGH QUALITY VIDEO AND REAL TIME APPLICATIONS
High quality video is still driving demand for enhanced bandwidth and peak data rates. New applications such as AR and holograms are expected to further push data demand.
| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Peak
data
rate
(M
bps)
Year
Voice
Data
Music
SD video
HD video
UHD/4k video
AR/VR
Hologram ?
CDMA
GPRS
UMTS
HSPA
LTE
LTE Pro
LTE-A
8k videoWe are here• Cellular
communication is a 30 year old industry
• It took at least 10 years between each cellular generation
• However, this new generation of 5G is expected to be introduced faster than any other generation, at least 2 years in advance, and we expect to see 5G mobile devices by mid 2019
99| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
CROWDED SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE APPLICATION
LTE mobile generation occupies a large portion of the available spectrum in the 400 MHz –4GHz radio band (roughly 40%) compared to other mobile generation (GSM, UMTS,CDMA)
The RF spectrum is crowded, especially for LTE. Carrier aggregation helped for LTE-A and LTE-A Pro, but new spectrum will be required.
Source Niviuk
1010| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
NETWORK PERFORMANCE AND IMPACT ON KEY TECHNOLOGIES
Network densification is needed to reduce the number of users per base station. Spectral efficiency is improved with high modulation order and more and more with MIMO technology which adds spatial streams. Data rate improvement is supported by bandwidth improvement brought by carrier aggregation technology or wider frequency bands.
𝐶 =𝑚
𝑛. 𝐵𝑊. 𝑙𝑜𝑔2(1 +
𝑆
𝑁 + 1)
Network densification
MIMOMore spectrum
Carrier Aggregation
Spectral efficiencyHigh order of modulation
f0
f1 f2
width0
width1 width2 width1+width2
Source 5GAmerica
1111| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
SUB 6 GHZ NEW RADIO BAND
New Radio bands sub 6 GHz bring more than 2 GHz of spectrum mostly in the ultra high band regime.
265 315250
550
210 170 178
384
244
2000
HB LB MB UHB HB LB MB UHB
LTE NR
FDD TDD
5,6,8,11,12,13,17,18,19,20,26,28,29,71 N5,N8,N20,N28,N71
LTE NR
LowBand
1380
558384
2244
LTE NR
2,3,9,21,25N2,N3
MidBand
1,4,7,30,38,39,40,41,66 N1,N7,N38,N41,N6
6
HighBand
42,43,48
N77,N78,N79
UltraHighBand
Band r
efa
rmin
gEarl
y band N
41
,N7
1,N
28
,N66
Bro
ad b
ands
LTE / 5G NR bandwidth comparison (MHz)
1212| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
REGIONAL ALLOCATION FOCUS ON ULTRA HIGH BAND
Ultra high band adoption with wide bandwidth is expected worldwide through band N77, N78, N79.
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5
Frequency (GHz)
LTE spectrum 5G NR
Source Qorvo modified by Yole
N79
N79N79
N77
N78
N78
N78
N78
N78
B48
B42
B42
4 SPST aperture tuner0.6 <-> 6 GHz
B42
Power Amplifier Module
N79
100 MHz @ 4.8 GHz+ 190 MHz @ 2.6 GHz
100 MHz @ 3.5 GHz
100 MHz @ 3.5 GHz
1313| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
MILLIMETER WAVE SPECTRUM
Mm-wave roll out will happen first in the USA and Korea. Later in 2020 for Japan and rest of the world.
Frequency (GHz)
5G NR
N258
N258
N257N260
N261
N257
N258
N257 Mm-wave antennamodule
N258
• Band N257 is main band for 5G mm-wave roll out in USA, Korea and Japan
• Europe, China, Rest of the World focus on band N258 later in 2020
• First mm-wave antenna module to support band N257, N261 and upcoming N260
1616| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
NEXT FLAGSHIP HANDSET RELEASE
5G handset devices expected to happen in 2019.
Mate 30Expected 5G
Q3-19Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q4-19
1st End toEnd Radio3 PAMiD3 DRx
LTE-A Pro1.2 Gbps5-6 CC4x4 MIMO
iPhone XSNot 5G
S10Expected 5G
OnePlus 7Expected 5G
Mix3 NexS Z3+5G modOutsiders
High runner
1717| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTION FORECAST PER AIR STANDARD
North America shows the highest LTE adoption rate followed by North East Asia, particularly China.
5G penetration rate is expected to follow the same trend.
Fixed Wireless Access – Oct 2018 5G mobile 2019
18
CELLPHONE AIR INTERFACE STANDARD DEVELOPMENT
Despite a slow down in mobile market growth, RF Front-End market is still expected to increase because of complexity encountered in LTE-A Pro and 5G sub 6.
Today 5G sub
6
| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
5G mmWave
GSMEDGE
UMTSHSPA
LTE
LTE-A
LTE-Pro
5G sub6
5G mmW
2020| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
TECHNOLOGY MIX FOR RACE TO DATA RATE
Combined carrier aggregation and MIMO technologies improve data rate and signal quality. mmWave add on will deliver even faster throughput and ubiquitous connectivity.
3CC1CC 4x4MIMO2CC
1CC 2x2MIMO
5CC3CC 4x4MIMO
5CC with NR bands 3CC 4x4MIMOmmWave
5CC with NR bands 3CC 4x4MIMO
Sub 6
mmWave
Now
2019
20192020
2016
2010
Likely 2 to 4mmWave module
Carrier Aggregation
4x4 MIMO256 QAM
UHF spectrum
Dual connectivity
Mm-wave
2121| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
TRANSITION FROM LTE TO 5G – DUAL CONNECTIVITY
Transition to 5G will be progressive with 5G NSA specifications allowing faster 5G handset design with NR bands.
EPC
eNode B
Chipset
LTE
EPC
eNode B
Chipset
LTE 5G
gNode B
Data
Control
5GC
Chipset
5G
gNode B
LTE5G NSA (#3)
NR/LTE anchordual connectivity
5G SA (#2)
NR Source Qorvo modified by Yole
Now 2019-2025 > 2025
2323| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
RF CONTENT EVOLUTION IN MOBILE PHONE – SUB 6 GHZ
In every cellular generation evolution leads to new technology and additional RF content.
4x4 MIMO
Dual connectivity
Diversity
Wi-Fi 2x2 MIMOCarrier AggregationHigh band
Carrier Aggregation Ultra high band
RF c
onte
nt –
rela
tive s
cale
2424| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
RF FRONT-END EVOLUTION
RF Front-End continues to evolve. First step is merging high and mid bands, densification and continuous support for carrier aggregation. New Radio bands to be integrated into ultra high band module with dual connectivity. Finally, mmWave should come on top of that beyond 2020.
HB module
MB module
LB module
UHB module
HB+MB module
LB module
> 3 GHz
> 2 GHz
> 1.5 GHz
UHB module
HB+MB module
LB module
2017 2018 2019
< 6GHz
> 700 MHz
NR band dualconnectivity
600 MHz inclusion
More CABand refarming
Densification
> 2020
UHB module
HB+MB module
LB module
mmWave mmWave module
Band refarming
mmWave module
Sam
e tech
nolo
gy
More
com
ple
xity
More
densi
fica
tion
Dis
ruption
2525| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION FOR 5G SUB 6 GHZ
Smartphone architecture complexity will increase dramatically with 5G sub 6, with band refarming and dual connectivity, mandatory 4x4 MIMO, wider NR Ultra High Band, and even increased CA usage. While available board for RF component and antenna space continues to shrink.
Integration & densification in PAMiD
HB PAMiD
MB PAMiDMB/HB PAMiD
DRxM
Filter
Filter
PA
Filter
Filter
PA
LNA
Sw
itch
More bandsMore Filters
More DL CALNA integration
DRxM
DRxM
DRxM
LNA
Sw
itch
Filter
More DL CA / 4x4 MIMO proliferation of DRxM
LNA
Sw
itch
Filter
LNA
Sw
itch
Filter
LNA
Sw
itch
Filter
4x4 MIMOAt least 4 antenna
LB PAMiD
Dip
lexe
r
Main MB/HB
Diversity MB/HB
MHB
LB
PA
Filter
FilterSw
itch
Multip
lexe
r
ASM
ASM
More independent streamMove from diplexer to multiplexerGood path isolation, while enabling high CA
Tuner
Tuner
Tuner
Tuner
Tuner
Tuner
UHB PAMiD
PA
Filter
FilterSw
itch
Dual connectivity and use of UHB
Main LB
Diversity LB
ASM
2626| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
iPHONE X SIMPLIFIED STRUCTURE
Despite a 5.8” phone, there is less room for RF functions due to bigger battery area and new functionality such as facial ID.
RFFE area has shrunk to 320mm², connectivity area down to 160mm²
speakerHaptic engine
Battery
Battery
Face ID sensors
Audio
Logic andRF board
Dual camera
Mid/High bandPAMiD
Low bandPAMiD
GSM PA
Transceiver
Wi-Fi/BT comboEnvelopetracker
Modem
Diversity module
CDMA PA
2727| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
POWER AMPLIFIER MODULE DENSIFICATION
Example of SystemPlus Consulting analysis showing integration on mid and high band modules into a single power amplifier module from Broadcom.
Détailler module
2828| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
DIVERSITY MODULE ADOPTION
Example of SystemPlus Consulting analysis showing a diversity receive module from Skyworks.
2929| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
MILLIMETER WAVE DISRUPTION – WHICH PACKAGING ?
Double side packaging technology already used for 60 GHz products. Does it also fit 5G 28 – 39 GHz frequency bands ?
InFo AiP - Courtesy of TSMC
AiP proto top view and cross section – Courtesy of Qualcomm
5G antenna module~19x7mm² / ~3mm thick
?
WiGig antenna module~13x5mm² / ~1mm thick
28 GHz – 39 GHz
60 GHz
30
Total RF component & FEM/PAMiD module manufacturersFiltersAntenna tunersSwitchesPAsLNAsmmWave FEM
$22,511MCAGR +19%
$7,188MCAGR +7%
$1,081MCAGR +15%
$3,361MCAGR +15%
$35,167MCAGR +14%
$8,100M
$4,838M
$463M
$1,440M
$15,087M
2017
2023
2017-2023 MARKET OUTLOOK2017–2023 Main RF components forecast
The largest market growth is for filters for high value products.
Switches and antenna tuners also show significant growth.
A mmWave component segment appears in 2023.
| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
$423MmmWave
$246M
$602MCAGR +16%
3131| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
GROWING RF CONTENT BY HANDSET
Rise of RF Front-End value by cellphone with increasing complexity and upcoming 5G New Radio dual connectivity. 5G sub 6 GHz Front-End extra value comes from 4x4 MIMO, dual connectivity along with high end filters. mmWave phones will include the same architecture than the sub 6 phones with at least 3 added mmWave modules (antenna arrays implementation at various locations to prevent from hand blockage effect).
2G phones 3G phones Regional 4G phones
High end LTE phones
Average RFFE content value by cellphone in 2020
$0.70 $2.60 $7.20 $16.35
Source: Yole Développement
5G phonesSub 6 GHz
$32
$38.5
5G phonesmmWave
2019
2020
3232| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
SMARTPHONE MARKET SHARE IN VOLUME
Samsung and Apple lead the market. Huawei shows impressive growth QoQ, followed by Oppo and Vivo. Xiaomi surpassed Oppo for the 1st time on Q1-18 and could rank 4th in 2018.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200M
ob
ile h
and
set
(Mu
)
Quarterly mobile handset (Mu)
Samsung
Apple
Huawei
Oppo
Vivo
Xiaomi
LG
ZTE
Lenovo (+moto)
Nokia
Alcatel
Sony
Others
1551 Muin 2017
3333| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
FRONT-END MODULE MARKET SHARE BY VOLUME
Broadcom maintains a strong position in high end PA modules while Skyworks progress fast as it enters the high end market as well.
In the emerging diversity module market, Murata has the leading position with Skyworks.
in 20172433 Mu
in 20172208 Mu
3434| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
WAFER PROJECTION – OVERALL RF FRONT-END AND WI-FI
Historical GaAs and SiGe wafer starts should remain flat, while Ceramic material, MEMS technology, SOI and even 12” bulk silicon will enjoy a significant growth in wafer starts.
Ceramic 6” inch equivalent
GaAs 6” inch equivalent
SOI 8” inch equivalent
SOI 12” inch equivalentSiGe 8” inch equivalent
Si 8” inch equivalent
Si 12” inch equivalent
MEMS 8” inch equivalent
Si 6” inch equivalent
kwafe
r
3535| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
A COMPLEX RF FRONT END PLAYER CAPABILITY
A very complex ecosystem made of internal capabilities, IP blocks and foundry service
SAW
BAW
SAW
BAW
SAW
BAW
SAW
BAW
SAW
BAW
Internal design and production
Internal design, use foundry service
Outsource
Other ?
Other ?
Other ?
Other ?
Other ?
Other ?In house packaging +
Other ?
SiliconManufacturingPartners Pte Ltd
In house packaging
In house packaging + OSAT
In house packaging
Non exhaustive list of companies
36
OSAT services
RF FRONT-END ECOSYSTEM COMPLEXITY
RF component stage
Front-End module stage
Handset device stage
Antenna device(tuner & switch)
RF switch
RF filterDiplexer/Multiplexer
Modem transceiver
Discrete components Integrated modules
Filter IP design
PA/LNA
| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018 Non exhaustive list of companies
3737| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
CHALLENGE FOR RF FRONT-END
• Architecture complexity even more with additional carrier aggregation (at least 5 CC) and dual connectivity.
• Board space reduced for both RF Front-End and antennas:
• Larger battery, new functionality (Facial recognition, …), larger screen (move from 16:9 to 18:9)
• Increasing number of antennas to 8-10 with cellular MIMO 4x4, Wi-Fi MIMO 2x2, BT and GNSS:
• In an even more reduced space due to screen evolution from 16:9 to 18:9
• Increasing power requirement due to antenna design constraint (smaller and broadband antenna):
• Requiring linear class2 PA (> 26 dBm)
• Challenging multiplexing scenario, high pressure on wideband filter performance due to higher frequencybands.
• Mm-Wave antenna module packaging, integration and consumption
RF Front-End is facing more challenges due to more complex architecture.
38| 5G impact on RF Front-End module and connectivity for cell phones | www.yole.fr | © 2018
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