2014 midterm election analysis: expect little change
TRANSCRIPT
1
2014 Midterm Election Analysis Expect Little Change
Stan Collender Executive Vice President Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington DC Twitter thebudgetguy
2
Qorvis MSLGROUPrsquos Executive Vice President and National Director of Financial Communications Stan Collender has extensive experience in financial and public affairs communications During his more than three decades in communications he has designed and implemented award-winning communications efforts for financial companies Wall Street firms trade associations nonprofit organizations and federal agencies Prior to joining Qorvis MSLGROUP Collender was the general manager of the Washington office of Financial Dynamics Business Communications national director of public affairs for Fleishman Hillard and a senior vice president at Burson-Marsteller He also served as the director of federal budget policy for two major international accounting firms Price Waterhouse and Touche Ross and as president of the Budget Research Group a private Washington-based consulting organization
Collender also has extensive experience on Capitol Hill and is considered to be one of the worldrsquos leading experts on the US budget and congressional budget process
He is one of only a handful of people who has worked for the House and Senate Budget Committees and has worked for three US representatives on the House Budget and Ways and Means Committees
Collender is one of the leading experts on federal fiscal and monetary policies Congress and Wall Streetrsquos response to Washington tax and spending policies
He is a popular contributor to Forbescom He previously wrote ldquoFiscal Fitnessrdquo a weekly column in Roll Call the influential Capitol Hill newspaper and ldquoBudget Battlesrdquo which was published weekly by nationaljournalcom for more than 10 years He is also the founder and principal writer of ldquoCapital Gains and Gamesrdquo which the Wall Street Journal has called one of the top 25 economic and financial blogs in the US Additionally Collender is the author of ldquoThe Guide to the Federal Budgetrdquo one of the most assigned texts on the subject
Table of Contents
04 House of Representatives
05 Senate
06 The 2016 Election is Already Underway
06 Key Issues
11 Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
The Republican Party scored a decisive political victory on Tuesday by taking control of the Senate adding to their existing majority in the House of Representatives and winning a number of governorships in key states across the country
33
But from a policy perspective the Republican Partyrsquos gains in the just-completed United States election are not as significant as they seem at first glance
The reason is simple The same types of stalemates that have typified legislating in Washington either will continue or possibly even intensify over the next two years
Traditionally younger voters such as Millennials in the US tend to register in low numbers and then are the least likely to vote among all age groups Although we wonrsquot have actual numbers for several days the preliminary indication from the early voting is that this trend continued in 2014 with Millennials not turning out in high percentages A Harvard Institute of Politics poll conducted the week before the election found that 51 percent of young Americans who say they would ldquodefinitely be votingrdquo preferred a Republican-run Congress with 47 percent favoring Democrat control This was a major change from a similar poll taken before the last midterm elections in 2010
House of Representatives
44
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_House_of_Representatives
The results were not final in all House races by the time this analysis was completed but it was clear that the Republicans had gained at least 10 seats and will continue to have a majority when Congress convenes in January
But Republicans already had a majority in the House the past two years and will not gain significantly more influence with these additional members They will not for example have the votes needed to override what could be a steady series of presidential vetoes As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have been the past six years
As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of
Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have
been the past six years
Senate
There are three reasons
3 The political necessity for some Senate Republican1 The Republican majority will not be large enough to override incumbents running for reelection in 2016 to avoid extremea presidential veto The Republicans will need 67 votes to do votes will be a direct challenge to that partyrsquos far right ldquoteathat and without at least 12 votes from Democrats which are partyrdquo wing which can be expected to push the leadershipnot likely veto override efforts will be futile to match what the more conservative House approves Any move by the Republican leadership to accommodate its2 It may be difficult for the new Senate Republican leadership moderates may well result in the tea partiers voting no Thatto get even simple majorities on legislative proposals too will make it difficult for the Republicans to get muchThe major reason will be that 24 of the 34 senators up for donereelection in 2016 will be Republicans and many of them
will be from traditionally Democratic states That meansthat many of the bills passed by the more conservativeHouse will be politically far too difficult for some SenateRepublicans to support
55
The more important Republican gains came in the Senate where the previous 55-45 Democratic majority (including 2 independents who caucused with the Democrats) will become at least at 52 to 45 Republican majority and several races are still to be decided that could increase the majority further As a result control of that chamberrsquos activities will shift to the Republican Party
This will result in a number of important leadership changes Republicans will chair all committees and that will alter the agenda each of these panels follows through the year There are likely to be more investigations of Obama administration initiatives and White House nominees may not be confirmed
Republican Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is considered most likely to become the new Senate majority leader and that will have a significant impact on what legislation is considered and the procedures and rules that are used Even the parliamentarian ndash the official who makes all procedural rulings on legislation being considered ndash will be a Republican appointee and she or he will be expected to make decisions that favor that partyrsquos preferences
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_Senate
But as is the case in the House the Republican numerical majority in the Senate ultimately will not mean as much as it seems at first glance as far as policy changes are concerned
The 2016 Election Is Already Underway
Many top political analysts are already saying that the Republican gains in the 2014 election will be matched by similar Democratic gains in 2016 and that control of the Senate is likely to return to the Democrats two years from now They are also saying that Republican control is likely to return in 2018 and then go back to Democratic control in 2020
Long-term (that is past lunch tomorrow) predictions of US elections must be considered with a great deal of skepticism Nevertheless given the expert analysis the possibility that the 2014 election results may just be an interim step in a steady series of political changes in the US must be taken seriously
Key Issues Herersquos what the 2014 election results most likely mean for key federal issues
The Economy Judicial Nominees
The November election has complicated the already convoluted US budget politics even further The new Republican Senate majority the political problems for many Republicans up for reelection in 2016 and the intransigence of the tea party will make passing a budget and the ldquoreconciliationrdquo bill ndash the legislation that actually implements much of what is assumed in the budget ndash very difficult
In addition the federal debt ceiling will have to be raised at some point next year and that is never easy for Congress to do regardless of which political party is in charge
Because of this few legislative economic initiatives will be possible over the next two years and the Federal Reserve will continue to be the major economic policymaker As a result short-term interest rates in the United States may stay lower for a longer period than the market currently is expecting
6
One of the biggest impacts of the new Republican majority will be on President Obamarsquos nominees for offices that require Senate confirmation The time it has taken to get the presidentrsquos appointees considered the past few years will likely be much longer in the new Congress
The current common assumption is that the White House will be unable to get few of its Supreme Court and lower court nominees (who are appointed for life and whose term would last beyond the end of the Obama administration) confirmed That could leave many judicial vacancies on federal courts over the next two years
In addition cabinet- and subcabinet-level nominees for federal departments and agencies either may not be considered or wonrsquot be approved
Military Policy
The larger Republican majority in the House and the new Republican majority in the Senate will want to increase military spending especially for research and development and the purchase of additional weapon systems
The increase will not be guaranteed however Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration may not be willing to hike military spending without also providing an increase for domestic spending With the White House holding the ultimate trump card the veto that neither house of Congress will have enough votes to override the chances are that an increase for the Pentagon either will also mean more for domestic agencies or will mean a far more modest rise for the military than anyone currently is expecting
EastVillage Images Shutterstockcom
Banking and Finance
Valeri PotapovaShutterstockcom
Many of the final regulations for the Dodd-Frank ldquoWall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrdquo many of which are already years late will likely be delayed further because of the election results The Republican House and Senate may place limitations on what federal agencies and departments may spend to draft and finalize these regulations In addition banking and financial agency and department heads who were always more likely to leave the administration as the end of the Obama presidency neared are now much less likely to be replaced because the Republican-controlled Senate will slow the confirmation process That will delay the Dodd-Frank
regulation process even further
7
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
Stan Collender Executive Vice President Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington DC Twitter thebudgetguy
2
Qorvis MSLGROUPrsquos Executive Vice President and National Director of Financial Communications Stan Collender has extensive experience in financial and public affairs communications During his more than three decades in communications he has designed and implemented award-winning communications efforts for financial companies Wall Street firms trade associations nonprofit organizations and federal agencies Prior to joining Qorvis MSLGROUP Collender was the general manager of the Washington office of Financial Dynamics Business Communications national director of public affairs for Fleishman Hillard and a senior vice president at Burson-Marsteller He also served as the director of federal budget policy for two major international accounting firms Price Waterhouse and Touche Ross and as president of the Budget Research Group a private Washington-based consulting organization
Collender also has extensive experience on Capitol Hill and is considered to be one of the worldrsquos leading experts on the US budget and congressional budget process
He is one of only a handful of people who has worked for the House and Senate Budget Committees and has worked for three US representatives on the House Budget and Ways and Means Committees
Collender is one of the leading experts on federal fiscal and monetary policies Congress and Wall Streetrsquos response to Washington tax and spending policies
He is a popular contributor to Forbescom He previously wrote ldquoFiscal Fitnessrdquo a weekly column in Roll Call the influential Capitol Hill newspaper and ldquoBudget Battlesrdquo which was published weekly by nationaljournalcom for more than 10 years He is also the founder and principal writer of ldquoCapital Gains and Gamesrdquo which the Wall Street Journal has called one of the top 25 economic and financial blogs in the US Additionally Collender is the author of ldquoThe Guide to the Federal Budgetrdquo one of the most assigned texts on the subject
Table of Contents
04 House of Representatives
05 Senate
06 The 2016 Election is Already Underway
06 Key Issues
11 Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
The Republican Party scored a decisive political victory on Tuesday by taking control of the Senate adding to their existing majority in the House of Representatives and winning a number of governorships in key states across the country
33
But from a policy perspective the Republican Partyrsquos gains in the just-completed United States election are not as significant as they seem at first glance
The reason is simple The same types of stalemates that have typified legislating in Washington either will continue or possibly even intensify over the next two years
Traditionally younger voters such as Millennials in the US tend to register in low numbers and then are the least likely to vote among all age groups Although we wonrsquot have actual numbers for several days the preliminary indication from the early voting is that this trend continued in 2014 with Millennials not turning out in high percentages A Harvard Institute of Politics poll conducted the week before the election found that 51 percent of young Americans who say they would ldquodefinitely be votingrdquo preferred a Republican-run Congress with 47 percent favoring Democrat control This was a major change from a similar poll taken before the last midterm elections in 2010
House of Representatives
44
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_House_of_Representatives
The results were not final in all House races by the time this analysis was completed but it was clear that the Republicans had gained at least 10 seats and will continue to have a majority when Congress convenes in January
But Republicans already had a majority in the House the past two years and will not gain significantly more influence with these additional members They will not for example have the votes needed to override what could be a steady series of presidential vetoes As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have been the past six years
As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of
Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have
been the past six years
Senate
There are three reasons
3 The political necessity for some Senate Republican1 The Republican majority will not be large enough to override incumbents running for reelection in 2016 to avoid extremea presidential veto The Republicans will need 67 votes to do votes will be a direct challenge to that partyrsquos far right ldquoteathat and without at least 12 votes from Democrats which are partyrdquo wing which can be expected to push the leadershipnot likely veto override efforts will be futile to match what the more conservative House approves Any move by the Republican leadership to accommodate its2 It may be difficult for the new Senate Republican leadership moderates may well result in the tea partiers voting no Thatto get even simple majorities on legislative proposals too will make it difficult for the Republicans to get muchThe major reason will be that 24 of the 34 senators up for donereelection in 2016 will be Republicans and many of them
will be from traditionally Democratic states That meansthat many of the bills passed by the more conservativeHouse will be politically far too difficult for some SenateRepublicans to support
55
The more important Republican gains came in the Senate where the previous 55-45 Democratic majority (including 2 independents who caucused with the Democrats) will become at least at 52 to 45 Republican majority and several races are still to be decided that could increase the majority further As a result control of that chamberrsquos activities will shift to the Republican Party
This will result in a number of important leadership changes Republicans will chair all committees and that will alter the agenda each of these panels follows through the year There are likely to be more investigations of Obama administration initiatives and White House nominees may not be confirmed
Republican Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is considered most likely to become the new Senate majority leader and that will have a significant impact on what legislation is considered and the procedures and rules that are used Even the parliamentarian ndash the official who makes all procedural rulings on legislation being considered ndash will be a Republican appointee and she or he will be expected to make decisions that favor that partyrsquos preferences
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_Senate
But as is the case in the House the Republican numerical majority in the Senate ultimately will not mean as much as it seems at first glance as far as policy changes are concerned
The 2016 Election Is Already Underway
Many top political analysts are already saying that the Republican gains in the 2014 election will be matched by similar Democratic gains in 2016 and that control of the Senate is likely to return to the Democrats two years from now They are also saying that Republican control is likely to return in 2018 and then go back to Democratic control in 2020
Long-term (that is past lunch tomorrow) predictions of US elections must be considered with a great deal of skepticism Nevertheless given the expert analysis the possibility that the 2014 election results may just be an interim step in a steady series of political changes in the US must be taken seriously
Key Issues Herersquos what the 2014 election results most likely mean for key federal issues
The Economy Judicial Nominees
The November election has complicated the already convoluted US budget politics even further The new Republican Senate majority the political problems for many Republicans up for reelection in 2016 and the intransigence of the tea party will make passing a budget and the ldquoreconciliationrdquo bill ndash the legislation that actually implements much of what is assumed in the budget ndash very difficult
In addition the federal debt ceiling will have to be raised at some point next year and that is never easy for Congress to do regardless of which political party is in charge
Because of this few legislative economic initiatives will be possible over the next two years and the Federal Reserve will continue to be the major economic policymaker As a result short-term interest rates in the United States may stay lower for a longer period than the market currently is expecting
6
One of the biggest impacts of the new Republican majority will be on President Obamarsquos nominees for offices that require Senate confirmation The time it has taken to get the presidentrsquos appointees considered the past few years will likely be much longer in the new Congress
The current common assumption is that the White House will be unable to get few of its Supreme Court and lower court nominees (who are appointed for life and whose term would last beyond the end of the Obama administration) confirmed That could leave many judicial vacancies on federal courts over the next two years
In addition cabinet- and subcabinet-level nominees for federal departments and agencies either may not be considered or wonrsquot be approved
Military Policy
The larger Republican majority in the House and the new Republican majority in the Senate will want to increase military spending especially for research and development and the purchase of additional weapon systems
The increase will not be guaranteed however Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration may not be willing to hike military spending without also providing an increase for domestic spending With the White House holding the ultimate trump card the veto that neither house of Congress will have enough votes to override the chances are that an increase for the Pentagon either will also mean more for domestic agencies or will mean a far more modest rise for the military than anyone currently is expecting
EastVillage Images Shutterstockcom
Banking and Finance
Valeri PotapovaShutterstockcom
Many of the final regulations for the Dodd-Frank ldquoWall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrdquo many of which are already years late will likely be delayed further because of the election results The Republican House and Senate may place limitations on what federal agencies and departments may spend to draft and finalize these regulations In addition banking and financial agency and department heads who were always more likely to leave the administration as the end of the Obama presidency neared are now much less likely to be replaced because the Republican-controlled Senate will slow the confirmation process That will delay the Dodd-Frank
regulation process even further
7
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
The Republican Party scored a decisive political victory on Tuesday by taking control of the Senate adding to their existing majority in the House of Representatives and winning a number of governorships in key states across the country
33
But from a policy perspective the Republican Partyrsquos gains in the just-completed United States election are not as significant as they seem at first glance
The reason is simple The same types of stalemates that have typified legislating in Washington either will continue or possibly even intensify over the next two years
Traditionally younger voters such as Millennials in the US tend to register in low numbers and then are the least likely to vote among all age groups Although we wonrsquot have actual numbers for several days the preliminary indication from the early voting is that this trend continued in 2014 with Millennials not turning out in high percentages A Harvard Institute of Politics poll conducted the week before the election found that 51 percent of young Americans who say they would ldquodefinitely be votingrdquo preferred a Republican-run Congress with 47 percent favoring Democrat control This was a major change from a similar poll taken before the last midterm elections in 2010
House of Representatives
44
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_House_of_Representatives
The results were not final in all House races by the time this analysis was completed but it was clear that the Republicans had gained at least 10 seats and will continue to have a majority when Congress convenes in January
But Republicans already had a majority in the House the past two years and will not gain significantly more influence with these additional members They will not for example have the votes needed to override what could be a steady series of presidential vetoes As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have been the past six years
As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of
Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have
been the past six years
Senate
There are three reasons
3 The political necessity for some Senate Republican1 The Republican majority will not be large enough to override incumbents running for reelection in 2016 to avoid extremea presidential veto The Republicans will need 67 votes to do votes will be a direct challenge to that partyrsquos far right ldquoteathat and without at least 12 votes from Democrats which are partyrdquo wing which can be expected to push the leadershipnot likely veto override efforts will be futile to match what the more conservative House approves Any move by the Republican leadership to accommodate its2 It may be difficult for the new Senate Republican leadership moderates may well result in the tea partiers voting no Thatto get even simple majorities on legislative proposals too will make it difficult for the Republicans to get muchThe major reason will be that 24 of the 34 senators up for donereelection in 2016 will be Republicans and many of them
will be from traditionally Democratic states That meansthat many of the bills passed by the more conservativeHouse will be politically far too difficult for some SenateRepublicans to support
55
The more important Republican gains came in the Senate where the previous 55-45 Democratic majority (including 2 independents who caucused with the Democrats) will become at least at 52 to 45 Republican majority and several races are still to be decided that could increase the majority further As a result control of that chamberrsquos activities will shift to the Republican Party
This will result in a number of important leadership changes Republicans will chair all committees and that will alter the agenda each of these panels follows through the year There are likely to be more investigations of Obama administration initiatives and White House nominees may not be confirmed
Republican Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is considered most likely to become the new Senate majority leader and that will have a significant impact on what legislation is considered and the procedures and rules that are used Even the parliamentarian ndash the official who makes all procedural rulings on legislation being considered ndash will be a Republican appointee and she or he will be expected to make decisions that favor that partyrsquos preferences
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_Senate
But as is the case in the House the Republican numerical majority in the Senate ultimately will not mean as much as it seems at first glance as far as policy changes are concerned
The 2016 Election Is Already Underway
Many top political analysts are already saying that the Republican gains in the 2014 election will be matched by similar Democratic gains in 2016 and that control of the Senate is likely to return to the Democrats two years from now They are also saying that Republican control is likely to return in 2018 and then go back to Democratic control in 2020
Long-term (that is past lunch tomorrow) predictions of US elections must be considered with a great deal of skepticism Nevertheless given the expert analysis the possibility that the 2014 election results may just be an interim step in a steady series of political changes in the US must be taken seriously
Key Issues Herersquos what the 2014 election results most likely mean for key federal issues
The Economy Judicial Nominees
The November election has complicated the already convoluted US budget politics even further The new Republican Senate majority the political problems for many Republicans up for reelection in 2016 and the intransigence of the tea party will make passing a budget and the ldquoreconciliationrdquo bill ndash the legislation that actually implements much of what is assumed in the budget ndash very difficult
In addition the federal debt ceiling will have to be raised at some point next year and that is never easy for Congress to do regardless of which political party is in charge
Because of this few legislative economic initiatives will be possible over the next two years and the Federal Reserve will continue to be the major economic policymaker As a result short-term interest rates in the United States may stay lower for a longer period than the market currently is expecting
6
One of the biggest impacts of the new Republican majority will be on President Obamarsquos nominees for offices that require Senate confirmation The time it has taken to get the presidentrsquos appointees considered the past few years will likely be much longer in the new Congress
The current common assumption is that the White House will be unable to get few of its Supreme Court and lower court nominees (who are appointed for life and whose term would last beyond the end of the Obama administration) confirmed That could leave many judicial vacancies on federal courts over the next two years
In addition cabinet- and subcabinet-level nominees for federal departments and agencies either may not be considered or wonrsquot be approved
Military Policy
The larger Republican majority in the House and the new Republican majority in the Senate will want to increase military spending especially for research and development and the purchase of additional weapon systems
The increase will not be guaranteed however Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration may not be willing to hike military spending without also providing an increase for domestic spending With the White House holding the ultimate trump card the veto that neither house of Congress will have enough votes to override the chances are that an increase for the Pentagon either will also mean more for domestic agencies or will mean a far more modest rise for the military than anyone currently is expecting
EastVillage Images Shutterstockcom
Banking and Finance
Valeri PotapovaShutterstockcom
Many of the final regulations for the Dodd-Frank ldquoWall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrdquo many of which are already years late will likely be delayed further because of the election results The Republican House and Senate may place limitations on what federal agencies and departments may spend to draft and finalize these regulations In addition banking and financial agency and department heads who were always more likely to leave the administration as the end of the Obama presidency neared are now much less likely to be replaced because the Republican-controlled Senate will slow the confirmation process That will delay the Dodd-Frank
regulation process even further
7
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
House of Representatives
44
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_House_of_Representatives
The results were not final in all House races by the time this analysis was completed but it was clear that the Republicans had gained at least 10 seats and will continue to have a majority when Congress convenes in January
But Republicans already had a majority in the House the past two years and will not gain significantly more influence with these additional members They will not for example have the votes needed to override what could be a steady series of presidential vetoes As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have been the past six years
As a result Republicans will continue to be in charge of the House of
Representatives but their policy preferences are as likely to be stymied in the coming Congress as they have
been the past six years
Senate
There are three reasons
3 The political necessity for some Senate Republican1 The Republican majority will not be large enough to override incumbents running for reelection in 2016 to avoid extremea presidential veto The Republicans will need 67 votes to do votes will be a direct challenge to that partyrsquos far right ldquoteathat and without at least 12 votes from Democrats which are partyrdquo wing which can be expected to push the leadershipnot likely veto override efforts will be futile to match what the more conservative House approves Any move by the Republican leadership to accommodate its2 It may be difficult for the new Senate Republican leadership moderates may well result in the tea partiers voting no Thatto get even simple majorities on legislative proposals too will make it difficult for the Republicans to get muchThe major reason will be that 24 of the 34 senators up for donereelection in 2016 will be Republicans and many of them
will be from traditionally Democratic states That meansthat many of the bills passed by the more conservativeHouse will be politically far too difficult for some SenateRepublicans to support
55
The more important Republican gains came in the Senate where the previous 55-45 Democratic majority (including 2 independents who caucused with the Democrats) will become at least at 52 to 45 Republican majority and several races are still to be decided that could increase the majority further As a result control of that chamberrsquos activities will shift to the Republican Party
This will result in a number of important leadership changes Republicans will chair all committees and that will alter the agenda each of these panels follows through the year There are likely to be more investigations of Obama administration initiatives and White House nominees may not be confirmed
Republican Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is considered most likely to become the new Senate majority leader and that will have a significant impact on what legislation is considered and the procedures and rules that are used Even the parliamentarian ndash the official who makes all procedural rulings on legislation being considered ndash will be a Republican appointee and she or he will be expected to make decisions that favor that partyrsquos preferences
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_Senate
But as is the case in the House the Republican numerical majority in the Senate ultimately will not mean as much as it seems at first glance as far as policy changes are concerned
The 2016 Election Is Already Underway
Many top political analysts are already saying that the Republican gains in the 2014 election will be matched by similar Democratic gains in 2016 and that control of the Senate is likely to return to the Democrats two years from now They are also saying that Republican control is likely to return in 2018 and then go back to Democratic control in 2020
Long-term (that is past lunch tomorrow) predictions of US elections must be considered with a great deal of skepticism Nevertheless given the expert analysis the possibility that the 2014 election results may just be an interim step in a steady series of political changes in the US must be taken seriously
Key Issues Herersquos what the 2014 election results most likely mean for key federal issues
The Economy Judicial Nominees
The November election has complicated the already convoluted US budget politics even further The new Republican Senate majority the political problems for many Republicans up for reelection in 2016 and the intransigence of the tea party will make passing a budget and the ldquoreconciliationrdquo bill ndash the legislation that actually implements much of what is assumed in the budget ndash very difficult
In addition the federal debt ceiling will have to be raised at some point next year and that is never easy for Congress to do regardless of which political party is in charge
Because of this few legislative economic initiatives will be possible over the next two years and the Federal Reserve will continue to be the major economic policymaker As a result short-term interest rates in the United States may stay lower for a longer period than the market currently is expecting
6
One of the biggest impacts of the new Republican majority will be on President Obamarsquos nominees for offices that require Senate confirmation The time it has taken to get the presidentrsquos appointees considered the past few years will likely be much longer in the new Congress
The current common assumption is that the White House will be unable to get few of its Supreme Court and lower court nominees (who are appointed for life and whose term would last beyond the end of the Obama administration) confirmed That could leave many judicial vacancies on federal courts over the next two years
In addition cabinet- and subcabinet-level nominees for federal departments and agencies either may not be considered or wonrsquot be approved
Military Policy
The larger Republican majority in the House and the new Republican majority in the Senate will want to increase military spending especially for research and development and the purchase of additional weapon systems
The increase will not be guaranteed however Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration may not be willing to hike military spending without also providing an increase for domestic spending With the White House holding the ultimate trump card the veto that neither house of Congress will have enough votes to override the chances are that an increase for the Pentagon either will also mean more for domestic agencies or will mean a far more modest rise for the military than anyone currently is expecting
EastVillage Images Shutterstockcom
Banking and Finance
Valeri PotapovaShutterstockcom
Many of the final regulations for the Dodd-Frank ldquoWall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrdquo many of which are already years late will likely be delayed further because of the election results The Republican House and Senate may place limitations on what federal agencies and departments may spend to draft and finalize these regulations In addition banking and financial agency and department heads who were always more likely to leave the administration as the end of the Obama presidency neared are now much less likely to be replaced because the Republican-controlled Senate will slow the confirmation process That will delay the Dodd-Frank
regulation process even further
7
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
Senate
There are three reasons
3 The political necessity for some Senate Republican1 The Republican majority will not be large enough to override incumbents running for reelection in 2016 to avoid extremea presidential veto The Republicans will need 67 votes to do votes will be a direct challenge to that partyrsquos far right ldquoteathat and without at least 12 votes from Democrats which are partyrdquo wing which can be expected to push the leadershipnot likely veto override efforts will be futile to match what the more conservative House approves Any move by the Republican leadership to accommodate its2 It may be difficult for the new Senate Republican leadership moderates may well result in the tea partiers voting no Thatto get even simple majorities on legislative proposals too will make it difficult for the Republicans to get muchThe major reason will be that 24 of the 34 senators up for donereelection in 2016 will be Republicans and many of them
will be from traditionally Democratic states That meansthat many of the bills passed by the more conservativeHouse will be politically far too difficult for some SenateRepublicans to support
55
The more important Republican gains came in the Senate where the previous 55-45 Democratic majority (including 2 independents who caucused with the Democrats) will become at least at 52 to 45 Republican majority and several races are still to be decided that could increase the majority further As a result control of that chamberrsquos activities will shift to the Republican Party
This will result in a number of important leadership changes Republicans will chair all committees and that will alter the agenda each of these panels follows through the year There are likely to be more investigations of Obama administration initiatives and White House nominees may not be confirmed
Republican Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is considered most likely to become the new Senate majority leader and that will have a significant impact on what legislation is considered and the procedures and rules that are used Even the parliamentarian ndash the official who makes all procedural rulings on legislation being considered ndash will be a Republican appointee and she or he will be expected to make decisions that favor that partyrsquos preferences
httpenwikipediaorgwikiUnited_States_Senate
But as is the case in the House the Republican numerical majority in the Senate ultimately will not mean as much as it seems at first glance as far as policy changes are concerned
The 2016 Election Is Already Underway
Many top political analysts are already saying that the Republican gains in the 2014 election will be matched by similar Democratic gains in 2016 and that control of the Senate is likely to return to the Democrats two years from now They are also saying that Republican control is likely to return in 2018 and then go back to Democratic control in 2020
Long-term (that is past lunch tomorrow) predictions of US elections must be considered with a great deal of skepticism Nevertheless given the expert analysis the possibility that the 2014 election results may just be an interim step in a steady series of political changes in the US must be taken seriously
Key Issues Herersquos what the 2014 election results most likely mean for key federal issues
The Economy Judicial Nominees
The November election has complicated the already convoluted US budget politics even further The new Republican Senate majority the political problems for many Republicans up for reelection in 2016 and the intransigence of the tea party will make passing a budget and the ldquoreconciliationrdquo bill ndash the legislation that actually implements much of what is assumed in the budget ndash very difficult
In addition the federal debt ceiling will have to be raised at some point next year and that is never easy for Congress to do regardless of which political party is in charge
Because of this few legislative economic initiatives will be possible over the next two years and the Federal Reserve will continue to be the major economic policymaker As a result short-term interest rates in the United States may stay lower for a longer period than the market currently is expecting
6
One of the biggest impacts of the new Republican majority will be on President Obamarsquos nominees for offices that require Senate confirmation The time it has taken to get the presidentrsquos appointees considered the past few years will likely be much longer in the new Congress
The current common assumption is that the White House will be unable to get few of its Supreme Court and lower court nominees (who are appointed for life and whose term would last beyond the end of the Obama administration) confirmed That could leave many judicial vacancies on federal courts over the next two years
In addition cabinet- and subcabinet-level nominees for federal departments and agencies either may not be considered or wonrsquot be approved
Military Policy
The larger Republican majority in the House and the new Republican majority in the Senate will want to increase military spending especially for research and development and the purchase of additional weapon systems
The increase will not be guaranteed however Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration may not be willing to hike military spending without also providing an increase for domestic spending With the White House holding the ultimate trump card the veto that neither house of Congress will have enough votes to override the chances are that an increase for the Pentagon either will also mean more for domestic agencies or will mean a far more modest rise for the military than anyone currently is expecting
EastVillage Images Shutterstockcom
Banking and Finance
Valeri PotapovaShutterstockcom
Many of the final regulations for the Dodd-Frank ldquoWall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrdquo many of which are already years late will likely be delayed further because of the election results The Republican House and Senate may place limitations on what federal agencies and departments may spend to draft and finalize these regulations In addition banking and financial agency and department heads who were always more likely to leave the administration as the end of the Obama presidency neared are now much less likely to be replaced because the Republican-controlled Senate will slow the confirmation process That will delay the Dodd-Frank
regulation process even further
7
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
The 2016 Election Is Already Underway
Many top political analysts are already saying that the Republican gains in the 2014 election will be matched by similar Democratic gains in 2016 and that control of the Senate is likely to return to the Democrats two years from now They are also saying that Republican control is likely to return in 2018 and then go back to Democratic control in 2020
Long-term (that is past lunch tomorrow) predictions of US elections must be considered with a great deal of skepticism Nevertheless given the expert analysis the possibility that the 2014 election results may just be an interim step in a steady series of political changes in the US must be taken seriously
Key Issues Herersquos what the 2014 election results most likely mean for key federal issues
The Economy Judicial Nominees
The November election has complicated the already convoluted US budget politics even further The new Republican Senate majority the political problems for many Republicans up for reelection in 2016 and the intransigence of the tea party will make passing a budget and the ldquoreconciliationrdquo bill ndash the legislation that actually implements much of what is assumed in the budget ndash very difficult
In addition the federal debt ceiling will have to be raised at some point next year and that is never easy for Congress to do regardless of which political party is in charge
Because of this few legislative economic initiatives will be possible over the next two years and the Federal Reserve will continue to be the major economic policymaker As a result short-term interest rates in the United States may stay lower for a longer period than the market currently is expecting
6
One of the biggest impacts of the new Republican majority will be on President Obamarsquos nominees for offices that require Senate confirmation The time it has taken to get the presidentrsquos appointees considered the past few years will likely be much longer in the new Congress
The current common assumption is that the White House will be unable to get few of its Supreme Court and lower court nominees (who are appointed for life and whose term would last beyond the end of the Obama administration) confirmed That could leave many judicial vacancies on federal courts over the next two years
In addition cabinet- and subcabinet-level nominees for federal departments and agencies either may not be considered or wonrsquot be approved
Military Policy
The larger Republican majority in the House and the new Republican majority in the Senate will want to increase military spending especially for research and development and the purchase of additional weapon systems
The increase will not be guaranteed however Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration may not be willing to hike military spending without also providing an increase for domestic spending With the White House holding the ultimate trump card the veto that neither house of Congress will have enough votes to override the chances are that an increase for the Pentagon either will also mean more for domestic agencies or will mean a far more modest rise for the military than anyone currently is expecting
EastVillage Images Shutterstockcom
Banking and Finance
Valeri PotapovaShutterstockcom
Many of the final regulations for the Dodd-Frank ldquoWall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrdquo many of which are already years late will likely be delayed further because of the election results The Republican House and Senate may place limitations on what federal agencies and departments may spend to draft and finalize these regulations In addition banking and financial agency and department heads who were always more likely to leave the administration as the end of the Obama presidency neared are now much less likely to be replaced because the Republican-controlled Senate will slow the confirmation process That will delay the Dodd-Frank
regulation process even further
7
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
Military Policy
The larger Republican majority in the House and the new Republican majority in the Senate will want to increase military spending especially for research and development and the purchase of additional weapon systems
The increase will not be guaranteed however Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration may not be willing to hike military spending without also providing an increase for domestic spending With the White House holding the ultimate trump card the veto that neither house of Congress will have enough votes to override the chances are that an increase for the Pentagon either will also mean more for domestic agencies or will mean a far more modest rise for the military than anyone currently is expecting
EastVillage Images Shutterstockcom
Banking and Finance
Valeri PotapovaShutterstockcom
Many of the final regulations for the Dodd-Frank ldquoWall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrdquo many of which are already years late will likely be delayed further because of the election results The Republican House and Senate may place limitations on what federal agencies and departments may spend to draft and finalize these regulations In addition banking and financial agency and department heads who were always more likely to leave the administration as the end of the Obama presidency neared are now much less likely to be replaced because the Republican-controlled Senate will slow the confirmation process That will delay the Dodd-Frank
regulation process even further
7
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
Tax Reform
The votes time and political consensus do not exist to move a comprehensive tax reform bill through Congress and the White House over the next two years The new Republican Senate majority makes hearings and the drafting of bills on this subject more likely but tax reform probably wonrsquot move forward until after the 2016 presidential election and will then take years to complete
Health
By Chuck Alston (chuckalstonmslgroupcom)
The increased Republican majorities in the House and Senate will not be large enough to make major (or perhaps any) changes in the ldquoAffordable Care Actrdquo or as itrsquos better known ldquoObamacarerdquo
House Republicans voted more than 50 times over the past 2 years to repeal all or parts of Obamacare and the Senate may now follow suit Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) who is likely to become chairman of the committee with jurisdiction over most of Obamacare is a very vocal opponent of the law and almost certainly will hold hearings on every aspect of its continuing implementation
But Senate Republicans will not have the votes to stop a filibuster or overturn a presidential veto As a result the Affordable Care Act is likely to stay in place
The real action on the Affordable Care Act will be in the executive branch where rulemaking will continue on the delivery and payment reform aspects of Obamacare and as the government enters its second year running the insurance exchanges
Meanwhile lawsuits over the viability of subsidies provided for insurance purchased on the federal exchange will continue to wend their way through the courts
8
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
Climate Change
By Sheila McLean (sheilamcleanmslgroupcom)
The election will have little impact on the effort to secure an international accord at the UN climate change talks in Paris late next year Todd Stern the White Housersquos special envoy for climate change has said that the US may seek an agreement that is not a legally binding treaty If that happens the accord will not require approval by the Senate and the new Republican majority will not have an opportunity to influence or stop it
Stern has said the administration is looking at an agreement similar to New Zealandrsquos plan which foregoes legally binding carbon mitigation targets but requires a schedule for emission reductions Such a plan has broad support from environmentalists and business leaders looking for regulatory certainty
Mitch McConnell becoming Senate majority leader will have a chilling effect on the Environmental Protection Agencyrsquos proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants McConnell campaigned hard on what he said was the EPArsquos ldquooverreachrdquo and has vowed both to restrict EPA funding and turn back Obamarsquos environmental agenda
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
By Greg Lagana (greglaganaqorvismslcom)
More hearings and contentious oversight are likely but the Republican takeover of the Senate most likely will not lead to any real changes in US foreign policy
The primary reason is that Republicans may be united in their disdain for the administrationrsquos foreign policy and their criticism of Obama for lack of leadership and resolve but they are not united on Pentagon spending or the extent to which the United States should exercise its military power in the world
Republicans will try to burnish their partyrsquos credentials in national security and foreign policy where they traditionally have held a political advantage and where polls show that confidence in Mr Obama and the Democratic Party is very low
Republicans will want to correct what they see as a weak and irresolute US foreign policy that they believe has damaged US standing and made the world a more dangerous place But real change will be difficult to achieve
Republicans can be expected to press hard for the Obama administration to take a harder line with Russia and be tougher in negotiations with Iran They will insist that any agreement with Iran be ratified by the Senate which the White House so far has resisted They will also press the president to be more decisive and resolute in confronting international terrorism particularly the Islamic State
Getting consensus to commit US ground troops will be more difficult however both because the war in Iraq is still fresh (and unpopular) in Americansrsquo minds and because the populist-conservative wing of the Republican party has a strong isolationist bent
Ironically President Obamarsquos foreign policy may get a boost from the Republican-controlled Senate in two areas
First Republicans have traditionally favored ldquofast-track authorityrdquo that is the power given to the president to negotiate international trade agreements that Congress can approve or disapprove but not amend or filibuster Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has opposed fast-track authority and has been unwilling to allow a vote on providing it Obama may finally get it because of the Republican control
9
Continued on the next page
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations (contrsquod)
10
Second Republicans are also less likely to investigate CIA interrogation methods and allegations of torture Under its probable new chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) the Senate Intelligence Committee should be friendlier to the intelligence agencies It will also be inclined to keep debate over those activities out of the public eye
John McCain (R-AZ) the likely new Senate Armed Services Committee chairman can be expected to hold hearings on any foreign-policy matters that touch on the use of military power either directly through the deployment of troops and advisers or indirectly through the provision of arms and other forms of military assistance Likely Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-TN) who is less outspoken and more of a consensus builder will be less aggressive in holding hearings and using his committee as a platform for criticism but he should still provide far more assertive and critical oversight than the administration experienced under the outgoing chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
With the administration in its last two years the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is not expected to approve many of the ambassadors currently awaiting confirmation A few nomineesmdash particularly career diplomats nominated for critical posts and some assistant-secretary nomineesmdashwill be confirmed but it will not be a good time for political nominees who do not have strong foreign-policy credentials or are not slated for sensitive assignments
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Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
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Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
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Qorvis MSLGROUP Washington Subject Specialists
President Qorvis MSLGROUP and National Director Public Affairs
Michael Petruzzello michaelpetruzzelloqorvismslcom 202-683-3113
US Politics
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Ron Faucheux ronfaucheuxqorvismslcom 202-683-3105
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Business Economy Finance Taxes
Stan Collender stancollenderqorvismslcom 202-683-3131
Climate Change Environment
Sheila McLean sheilamcleanmslgroupcom 202-683-3281
Defense Aerospace
Keith Strubhar keithstrubharmslgroupcom 202-683-3110
Digital Communications
Archie Smart archiesmartqorvismslcom 202-683-3125
Foreign AffairsInternational Relations
Greg Lagana greglaganaqorvismslcom 202-683-3245
Rich Masters richmastersqorvismslcom 202-683-3144
Grassroots
Elissa Dodge elissadodgeqorvismslcom 202-683-3152
Health
Chuck Alston chuckalstonmslgroupcom 202-683-3262
Nancy Glick nancyglickmslgroupcom 202-683-3284
Technology Federal Contracting
Cara Lombardi caralombardiqorvismslcom 202-683-3231
11
