Congressional Elections

Held every 2 years

1/3 Senate (continuous body)

and all of the House of Rep.

Midterm & Presidential

Election years

Congressional Elections

• Differ from presidential elections:– Congressional candidates tend to labor in

obscurity– Vast majority of candidates are little-known

state legislators– Name recognition is often the most important

battle of the campaign– Generally they receive little media coverage

Incumbency Advantage

• Incumbents have:– Taxpayer funds that can enhance their

profiles and prospects – Money to run an office – Franking privilege - free mass mailings– Constituency service - helping constituents

unravel red tape

• Highly visible in the district

• Easy access to local media

• Speak frequently at events and meetings

• Reelection rates for incumbents in the House are above 90%.

Redistricting, Scandals and Coattails

• Most likely reasons for losing reelection• After every census, the representation is

reapportioned or redistributed• Number set at 435 - The Reapportionment

Act of 1929• 2010 Census resulted in Pa loosing one

district - 18• The US grows – number of people each

representative speaks for grows.

• PA district map has to be redrawn from 19 voting districts to 18.

http://www.redistricting.state.pa.us • Party that controls the state legislature

tries to gain political advantage in the redistricting process– Gerrymandering - districts

drawn with unusual shapes- Elbridge Gerry MA, looks

like a salamander.

Coattails

• Incumbents can lose if a successful presidential candidate pulls his party along

• Seems to be weakening in modern times

• Local issues become more important than the status of Pres. or national issues

Midterm ElectionsTwo to Six Year Itch

• Can be used as indicator of Pres performance

• Results of critical importance to incumbent president

• Bush: 2000 victory resulted in weak mandate for his programs

• 1st months troubled

2002 Midterm Elections

• Held after 9/11

• Rallying around Pres. caused drift toward Republicans in Congress

• Congress did not want to be seen putting obstacles in the way of the Commander-in Chief

2004 Presidential Election

• Republicans controlled House & Senate

• Congress and President worked together

• No guarantee Congress would be a rubber stamp

2006 Midterm Elections

• Democrats retake Congress– Senate:

– House of Representatives:

Pennsylvania

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/epolls.0.html

No Coattail for RepublicansExit Polls indicated voters looking for a

new directionDiplomatic solution to Iraq

2008 Presidential Election

• Democrats control House and Senate

• Congress and President vow to work together

• No guarantee Congress will be a rubber stamp– Health Care– War in Afghanistan

2010 Midterm Election

• Issues– Wars– Health care– Economy / Jobs

• Anger and anxiety propelled Republicans to sweeping takeover of House - new power structure

• No Coattail effect

2012??

• Issues not changed much

• Strength of Republican candidate

• Voter perception of Republican takeover in House and states - successful or not

• More of the same . . . ?

Unusual Situations

• 1998: Clinton had popular mandate as president– Republicans controlled the Congress

• 1956: Eisenhower Republican had popular mandate as president– Congress Democratic

• Same for 1968 and 1972– Presidents had to work with a Congress

that had a majority from the opposing party

Common for Pres. Party to lose out in Mid-Term Elections

• Local issues tend to gather more importance in mid-term elections– General elections are more nationally

focused

• Normal Disillusionment with the party in power– Voters vote against pres party, check and

balance

Pres. In Difficult Position

• Support Congressmen in his party– May be associated with their failure– Has to work with the Congressional

member who defeated his candidate

• Doesn’t support– Morale of party may suffer

Midterm Election - 1998

• Logic says Clinton should do poorly– Monica Lewinsky– Starr Inquiry re: Real Estate kickbacks

• Opposite occurred– Public condemnation of private actions did

not extend into his political domain– Rating level 63%

Congressional Elections: Voting

• Popular Pres. May influence the turnout of voters in midterm elections– Little effect on the way people vote

• Local issues become more important than the status of Pres. or national issues

Six Year Itch Quiz

Test your historical knowledge.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/

Scroll down to “More News and Features”

Voting Behavior

Political Participation that develops through political socialization

Seven Amendments to the Constitution regarding voting

Voter Turnout

• Declining until 2008 – Highest since 1908 - 64% participation– Approx. 40% eligible voters (71% registered)

• Increase of ~ 5 million voters since 2004• Eligible voter population increased ~ 9 million

– Problem for democracy– 25% of adult population votes “occasionally” – 35% rarely or never vote

•Criteria for voting: •age 18, citizen, registration

•Some states make voting burdensome•Registration requirements, residency requirements

•Jesse Ventura’s election partially due to same day registration

Power Given to the States

Factors Influencing Voting Behavior

• Education - #1– More education, more likely to vote ~ 80%

• Civic duty, understand the process, greater sense of control over own destiny

• Income Levels – Socio-economic status– Higher levels - higher turnout rates– Professional occupations more likely to

turnout• Opinions are respected due to status

• Age– Young tend not to vote (under 30)

• 49% registered voters voted in 2008

– Seniors ~ 72%• 1940-1950 participation decreased• 1970-present participation has increased due to

AARP– People living longer– Very active over the last few decades– Social Security, Healthcare

• Race and Ethnicity– Whites vote more regularly than African-Am.– 2004: 60% / 55%; 2008: 64% / 65%– Income and education levels differ– South made voting difficult for African-Am

resulting in low turnout rates p. 494, 13.5– 15th Amendment not enforced - Voting Rights

Act of 1965 banned all obstacles

• Hispanic Americans large community– Voter turnout lower than African-Am.– 2004 55% / 38%; 2008: 50% / 65%– Education, income levels and understanding

of the system• Don’t trust the government• Don’t have control of what govt. does• Not going to benefit from election

Low Voter Turnout• Too Busy #1 reason for not voting• Difficulty in Registering to vote

– Not automatic - Individual effort– Residency requirements

• Different from State to State

– Not well advertised where to register and where to vote

• Frequency of elections: US holds more than any other nation - every November

• Not required to vote so why do so?

• Satisfaction with status quo

• Believe can not make a difference

• Too much effort to keep up with issues or too difficult to understand them

• Turned off by the quality of campaigns

• Weak political parties or no difference is seen between the candidates

Voter Attitudes

Voting Patterns

The Analysis of Voter Turnout

Voting Patterns in America

• 1996 general election- 49%– Lowest since 1924– Despite a record of 13 million new voters

registering to vote in 1992

• 1960’s 63% turnout– Considered the “Kennedy Factor”

• 19th Amendment of 1920– Women’s right to vote– Impact on elections took years before it

was felt

• 26th Amendment 1968– Lowered age to 18– Less than 50% turned out for the general

election

• Voter apathy leaves decision making to the educated, white, middle/upper class voter.

• 1993 Motor Voter Act was passed– Effort to make procedure to register easier– Register to vote when applying for a driving

license - not required -

• An extra 5 million people registered to vote for the 1996 general election– Only about 50% of registered voters

voted

– Increase in African-Am. voters

Study on Voting Patterns

• 1984 election– 92.6 million voted, 84 million did not– Finding of study:

• 20% Americans move each year and need to reregister in new location

• Groups that traditionally helped with registration drives have decreased in influence - unions

• Media: diluted grass-roots face-to-face politics and removed the “human touch”

• 1972, 1984, 1996 - Seen as forgone conclusions - why vote?

• 2000 election seen as most open in decades - turnout 50%

• Voting patterns for 2004 and 2008?

http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm

Voting Turnout Questions

• How can the US improve voter turnout?

• Does low voter turnout matter?

• Does the process need reform?

WHO IS VOTING?