Elections and Direct Democracy

4 November 2010

The 2010 Midterm Election

An Historic Election? Republicans recapture the House for the first time since 2006

with a gain of (at least) 60 seats; prior to the election Democrats held a 258-177 majority (41 seat advantage)

Incumbency Advantage

Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents are reelected In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection in the postwar

period Even in years very unfavourable to one of the parties, a large

majority win. In 1994, the Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won. In 1974, 77 percent of the Republican incumbents who ran were returned to office.

In 2006, 94 percent of House incumbents won; in the Senate 79 percent were reelected.

In 2010, 87 percent of House incumbents were returned to office; in the Senate 87-91 percent (depending on the outcome of the Washington and Alaska races)

Incumbency advantage in 2010

At least 20 percent of the House Democrats are defeated (n=49) compared with only 1.3 percent for Republicans (n=2).

Feigngold (Wisconisn) and Lincoln (Arkansas) are defeated; Murray (Washington) is too close to call.

Democrats lose a total of 6 seats but still retain majority in the Senate (with at least 52 seats including two independents); Indiana, North Dakota, Illinois, Pennsylvania

House: 43 open seats (10%); Republicans win 84% of the seats (n=36) Democrats hold on to Nevada, Colorado, California; Washington is still too

close to call.

Map of U.S. House Races

See NYTimes coverage

Map of U.S. Senate Races

See NYTimes coverage

Historic Comparisons

Presidents party has lost seats in Congress for all but three of the 27 midterms beginning in the 20th Century.

Since the end of WW II, the average midterm seat loss for the president’s party is 24 seats.

When the president’s approval rating is below 50% the average midterm seat loss is 38 seats.

Source: Abramson et al. (2007) Change and Continuity in the 2004 and 2006 Elections

Trends in Midterm Elections

The 2010 election represents the largest loss since 1948.

Voter turnout

The 2010 midterm election experienced the highest turnout for a midterm election in the past 30 years. An estimated 41.5 percent of those eligible to vote participated, which appears to have topped the 41.1 percent in the 1994 midterm elections – another good year for Republicans. 

Nevertheless, turnout is substantially lower than presidential elections; in 2008, 61.6 percent of those eligible to vote did so.

Source: Michael McDonald, George Mason University

Age and Turnout

Exit polls showed that voters 18-29 made up 11% of the electorate; down from 18% in 2008.

In comparison, people age 65 and older increased from 19% in 2006 to 23% in 2010. 

Voters younger than 30 still gave Democrats a boost. Every other age group favoured the GOP, including a whopping 18-point advantage for Republicans among voters older than 65.

How Citizens Voted for U.S. House

Source: CNN Exit Polls

How do people decide who to vote for? Two Models of Voting Behaviour

Voters as forward thinkers (Prospective Model) Party identification Candidate characteristics Issue positions

Voters looking back (Retrospective Model) Party identification Evaluation of the past

Note that both models agree that partisanship plays a central role

Functions of Party Identification

Helps one organise and categorise information Perceptual Screen

Helps one make value judgments. Is Barack Obama more competent than George Bush? Could Bill Clinton be trusted?

Influence Political Behavior Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in

politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote.

party id is the most important determinant of the way people vote

Measuring Party Identification

“Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?”

Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat).

Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”

Trends in Partisanship (1952-2008)

Influence of Party Id

Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign

Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

Perception of Gore’s Honesty

Requirements for Issue Voting

Aware of the issue Care about the issue Perceive difference between the candidates Correct about the difference

Direct Democracy as an Alternative

Rather than voting for representatives, citizens are able to draft and vote directly on policy

Direct democracy allows citizens to be their own “legislators” Direct democracy also allows citizens to set the policy agenda Circumvent a non-responsive legislature

Recall the reasoning for the U.S. Constitutional

Framework…

America is not so much a democracy as it is a republic.

The whole idea of the Constitution was to limit majority rule, to prevent tyranny of the majority. This is why citizens do not make laws directly, but elect representatives to do so, and supra-majorities or checks and balances are required in every step of legislation and execution.

Nevertheless, the Constitution reserves power to the states to determine their own laws. Many states allow voters to make laws directly.

Devices of Direct Democracy

The Referendum Government places a question before the voters

The Initiative Allows voters (or some organized group) to define the issue or

question to be voted on The Recall

Allows voters to undo elections by recalling elected officials

The Referendum

France and the Netherlands recently voted on the European Constitution (2005)

Constitution of Iraq (2005) Australian Republic (1999) Canada “Charlottetown Accord” (1992)—

divisions of powers between federal and provinces Ireland (1995) held a referendum to decide whether divorce

should be legal

The Initiative—Some Examples

Taxes Prop 13 (California, 1978)

Medicinal marijuana California’s Prop 315 (1996); Proposition 1 (Michigan 2008); Measure 67 (Oregon,

1998) New proposals in California would legalise, tax and regulate the drug in what would

be the first such law in the United States. Tax officials estimate that legislation could bring $1.4 billion a year.

Ban same-sex marriage 11 states (2004); 3 states (2008)

Deny illegal immigrants social services, health care, and public education Prop 187 (California, 1994)

The Recall

Typically used for local offices Exception-California Governor (October 7, 2003) Signatures Results

Where Direct Democracy is used

Examples of Ballot MeasuresCalifornia (2010)

Vote on Legalizing Marijuana (CA)

Source: CNN Exit Polls

Advantages

Allows citizens to circumvent unresponsive legislatures (example of term limits and other reforms)

Allows citizens to remove unpopular representatives (example of Gray Davis)

Empowers voters

Criticisms of Direct Democracy

Original intent of the framers was for a republican form of government

Too much money and “special interest” influence Voters are incompetent Concern about minority rights

Reasons Californians Support Direct Democracy

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Gives people a voice

Allows direct participation

Allows for policy change

Forces issues onto the agenda

Makes voters aware of issues

Gets attention of politicians

Source: Table 7.1, p. 135 Donovan and Bowler

Voter Evaluations of Representative versus Direct Democracy

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Who do you feel generally enacts more coherent andwel-thought-out government policies?

Which do you feel is better suited to decide uponhighly technical or legal policy matters?

Which do you feel gives more thorough review toeach particular aspect of a proposed law?

Which do you feel is better suited to decide uponlarge scale government programs and projects

Which do you feel is more influenced by specialinterest groups?

Which do you feel can be trusted more often to dowhwat is right on important government issues?

Elected Representatives Voting Public Other

Source: Table 7.2, p. 136 Donovan and Bowler