Achieving Food Security

and Sustainability for Nine

Billion

chris.leaver@plants.ox.ac.uk

Old Byzantine Proverb:

‘He who has bread may have troubles

He who lacks it has only one’

The Challenge of Achieving Food Security

and Sustainability for Nine Billionchris.leaver@plants.ox.ac.uk

We are dependent on cultivated plant species as the software to translate the sun’s energy, water and mineral nu trients into food, fibre and fuels

.

In Many Countries Productive Agriculture is Seasona l

CHLOROPHYLL: Is the only the molecule that can be seen from space . It is found in all Green Plants and is responsible for ca pturing the light energy from the Sun by a process know as PHOTOSYNTHESIS

PHOTOSYNTHESIS• Life on earth ultimately

depends on energy derived

from the sun.

• Photosynthesis by green plants

is the only process of biological

importance that can capture

this energy.

• It provides energy, organic

matter and oxygen, and is the

only sustainable energy source

on our planet.

Sucrose

Starch

Oils

Proteins

Plants provide the food we eat, the environment we enjoy &the air we breathe.

THE FOOD WE EAT

Humans use about 30% of the earths photosynthetic production andand ca 32% of the planets land area for cropland(12%) and pasture(20%)

1. What level is truly sustainable, how much do we need to share with other species and how can we optimise the usefulness and beneficial impact of what we can harvest in the future?

2. How can we deliver global food security to avoid predicted deficits as early as 2020 and to deliver an environmentally sustainable doubling of crop production by 2050?. There are 7.0 billion people on earth now and this will increase to ca. 9 billion by 2050

2. How can we reduce our dependence on, and ultimately replace petrochemicals with renewable chemical feed stocks from plants?

4. How can we combat climate change,global warming and drought and minimise its impact on crop productivity?

CHALLENGES IN YOUR LIFETIME

Peter Bruegel the Elder (1565)

Soybean Harvest and

Corn Cultivation

The Eurocentric

Vision of Agriculture:

Garden of Earthly

Delight or Paradise Lost?

The Reality:Prarie Agriculture

In Mato Grosso-Brazil

Agriculture is a success

story and has kept pace

with the increase in

population over the

centuries… BUT not for

everyone on the planet

YOU WILL KNOW FAR BETTER THAN I THE REALITY OF AGRICULTURE IN SOME AFRICAN COUNTRIES

• More than 1 billion people go hungry daily about 250 million are in Africa

• About 30,000 people, half of them children, die every day due to hunger and malnutrition

• More than 3 billion people are living in absolute poverty on less than two dollars a day and are generally deficient in at least one micronutrient necessary for maintaining their health. They have real problems with food security.

• 650 Million of the Poorest Live in Rural Areas

Today we could feed everyone on the planet thanks to plant breeding

and modern agriculture but now and in the future making sure

everyone has enough to eat is about politics (access,distribution etc---)

and investment in science…….

““ In the next 50 years, mankind will consume as much food as we have consumed since the beginning of agriculture 10,000 years ag o - Clive James”

The worlds population has more than doubled in the last 50 years

Each Year the World’s Population Grows by about 80 Million People

Developing and

Transition

Countries

Developed countries

2012

10% of the Population Lives

on 0.5% of the World’s Income1927

1960

220,000 new mouths to feed everyday

Increases in global population and urbanisationIncreases in global population and urbanisation……

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Pop

ulat

ion

(bill

ions

)

Oceania

Northern America

Latin America

Europe

Asia

Africa

Source: United Nations, World Population

Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)

World population growth by region Urbanisation

The largest increases in population will

occur in megacities in Africa and Asia.

More than 50% of the worlds

population already live in urban

areas it will rise to 70%.

Demand is driven by population growth and land scarcity

19602 people

2005>4 people

People fed per hectare

2030>5 people

1950

2.5 billion

20056.5 billion

2030

>8 billion

World population

Source: FAO, World Bank statistics

As a result 1 in 6 of the world’s population, is hungry today, and we have to increase food production by 70-100% by 2050

And failing to end hungerAnd failing to end hungerUndernourishment data versus the Millenium Development

Goals target

Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)

2007-08 food price spike

Mill

ions

How have we met the increased food demand since 1950’s?

Mechanisation including irrigation

Modern fertilizers

Crop protection

chemicals

Better seed varieties

Maximum yields in those countries which will have t he biggest increase in population are still far below those achieved in th e developed world

Sub Saharan Africa

Four innovations brought about the change in agriculture and increased yield in the twentieth century

• Productivity steadily increased with only a 10% increase in land use :

– Mechanisation and irrigation

– Synthetic fertilisers

– Crop protection chemicals

– Plant Breeding and Genetics-

the ‘Green revolution’

• The effect of these four innovations was to allow more food to be produced from less land-

• The developed world became complacent!!

• What are the innovations which will change agriculture in this century?

Source: WBC for Sustainable Agriculture, Crop Losses to Pests (E-C Oerke); Journal of Agricultural Science (2006)11/7/2012 12

Russell and Sandall (2005) University of Nebraska, Lincoln

USDA NASS

10.0

Corn7.5

Sorghum Barley Wheat Soybean OatsRye Cotton

5.0

2.5

0.0

US average crop yields (1866 – 2006)

Several studies have shown that about 40-50% of U.S. corn yield gain since the 1930s is due to changes in management, such as increases in N fertilizer, agrochemicals & higher

plant densities, while the other 50-60% is due to changes in corn genotype.

• Agronomic and Genetic Improvements Will Continue to

Work Together to Sustain Improvement in Crop Yield

But yield gains of some major crops are plateauing

In the developed world

Molecular Breeding and GM technology has made a significant contribution to the increase in yield of corn since the late 1990s

To feed and resource 7.0 billion people we have already lost…..•1/5 of our topsoil (due to erosion, desertification and salinity)

•1/5 of our agricultural land (overgrazing marginal land)

•1/3 of our forests

•Plus Today Additionally…..•Environmental pollution

•Climate change, groundwater depletion

•Depletion of the Ozone layer

•Massive fossil fuel usage/CO2 increase by 15% since 1950

•Species extinction, biodiversity loss

•Urbanisation → increased meat consumption (India and China etc)

•Obesity/starvation

•Zoonotic disease transmission HIV, SARs, BSE, Foot and Mouth, Bird Flu etc

THIS IS UNSUSTAINABLE : DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION

The world has been successful at Increasing Food Supply

But this has been at a cost………..

And now man made global warming and climate change …..

Crop productivity is highly vulnerable tovariations in climate

Models suggest that climate change will have a positive or neutral effect on crop yields at high latitudes but negative effects at low latitudes

Increased CO2 (from the current 385 ppm set to rise to 450ppm) raises some yields

Lack of water limits others

Spectrum of pests and disease change

Carbon dioxide levels overthe last 60,000 years

Food Security, Poverty and Climate Change

The Challenge is :

• World population will grow from 7bn 2012 to >9bn by 2050

• More than 50% of the worlds population already live in urban areas and it will rise to 70%

• The largest increases in population will occur in megacities in Africa and Asia

• Increasing affluence in Asia drives demand for meat, cereals, edible oils-the nutritional transition

• Over 1bn people chronically hungry. 3 billion in poverty

• Land available for agriculture will stay ~ constant or decrease

• Decreasing water supplies limit crop yields

•Climate warming is broadly neutral on global yields

but will have significant negative impact on those

countries with the greatest need. Leading to changes

in the distribution and severity of plant pests and

disease,rising sea levels,flooding,severe drought,

decline in soil quality (eg erosion,salinity)

•Increase in yields of major staple crops is plateauing

•Diversion of resources into growing energy crops for

biofuels rather than food crops

70- 100% more food required on same land area, with improved sustainability, fairer distribution and adaption to climate change

and………

The food system is also failing on sustainability - defined

as….. ‘Meeting the needs of the present while improving the

ability of future generations to meet their own needs’

•Agriculture currently consumes 70% of

total global water withdrawals from

rivers and aquifers, many of which are

overexploited. Global water demand for

agriculture could rise by over 30% by

2030 and double by 2050.

•Of 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on

earth, around 24% has undergone

human induced soil degradation

• Agriculture and forestry directly

contributes ca 30 % of global

anthropogenic greenhouse gas

emissions

We Must Grow More With Less

“Sustainable Intensification”• All commentators agree that food production will have to increase substantially

this century. But there are very different views about how this should best be achieved

• Sustainable agricultural intensification is defined as ‘producing more output from the same area of land while reducing the negative environmental impacts ‘

• ...both agricultural and environmental outcomes are pre-eminent under sustainable intensification

• To deliver sustainable intensification we must get beyond pointless arguments based on entrenched beliefs or narrow debates about individual technologies and must ……..

• Focus on desired outcomes

• Practical matter not an academic exercise

• There is no single perfect solution

• Sustainability is a journey, not the destination

• Solutions must work locally for individual farmers and communities

21

There are only two ways to increase food production

Time Magazine

Farm More Land Produce More/Acre

In an age of climate change, land-use-conversion is the worst

possible thing to do

Time Magazine

Declining Land Availability

07/11/2012 21:32 22

We are running out of land and water!!!Worldwide, more than 70% of food production is dependent on irrigation. Depletion of aquifers (underground water) is occurring at twice there recharge rate,water tables are falling and wells running dry .Salinisation and desertification is a major consequence of irrigation

Since the overpumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries (particularily in China and India) more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time, creating potentially unmanageable food scarcity.

Major drought-prone regions of the world coincide with

those regions with the largest predicted increase in population

Changing and unpredictable weather patterns

Corn yields in USA decreasedby ca 30% in 2012 due to drought

The Choices• Expand area of agriculture using virgin land

• Increase productivity in exporting countries of the developed world

• Use all safe and appropriate, socially responsible and sustainable opportunities to increase food supplies locally and also improve‘orphan crops’

• Develop a sustainable and environmentally friendly agriculture which combines the best of conventional plant breeding with the new biotechnologies including marker assisted breeding and genetic modification.

• This is what we wish to discuss with you in the next few days.

DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION AND TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE

The “Perfect Storm” that led to the 2007 food shortages

will be with us in the future

26

Consumption by large, affluent classes in

India , China,SEA and South America

More people to feed

Biofuels

Drought in Australia,Russian

Heatwaves and Fires in 2010

US Drought in 2012

Source: USDA ERS

High Energy Costs

40% of US Corn used for Ethanol

The price of fertiliser is linked to the price of oil and continues to rise

SEPTEMBER 2012

Recent prolonged high temperatures and drought in the US Corn Belt and changing weather conditions have led to predictions that corn yields could be reduced by between 20 and 30% this year. Significant reductions in yields in Europe and Russia.

JULY 2012

Mankind depends on a few crop species for food

The application of marker assisted breeding and GM technology has primarily been used

to improve food production in the major world crops such as maize and soyabean with

rice and wheat following behind. They should now be adapted to improving orphan crops

which can address food security and nutrition and provide economic benefits to

poor farmers in the developing world-sorghum,cowpea,sweet potato,groundnut,cassava

Conventional Plant Breeding has been very successfu l but yield gains are now slowing. The new molecular technologies allow more precise and rapid crop improvement by marker assisted selection breed ing and GM approaches. This requires the identification of the gene(s) that underlie the traits and then combination with native traits usin g molecular markers and/or GM to improve the crop

But yield gains of some

major crops are plateauing

and have not benefited

from GM Technology

Corn

Low crop yields are

part of the problem…

Maize/Corn Yields, 1961-2009

Source: FAO

China

World Average

Africa

Average Cereal Yields

Sub Saharan Africa

South Asia

China

0

2

4

6

Ton

s pe

r H

ecta

re

(FAO 2006)

Agricultural productivity:

Africa 10,000 kcal/ha

Asia 25,000 kcal/ha

Global 20,000 kcal/ha

We have to increase PRODUCTIVITY

• Increasing productivity provides a livelihood for

people, allowing them the opportunity to stay in

their communities. This leads to local economic

growth, better education, health, political stability

and food stability. Implicit with increases in

agricultural productivity is the more efficient use and

distribution of scarce resources such as fuel and

fertiliser.

• Critically, today per capita food production in rich

countries is twice that of the poor nations. We must

increase productivity in these countries to feed the

estimated 9 billion people.

If Future Agriculture is to Support Everyone Adequately on

the Planet a combination of Improved and Appropriate

Technologies will be Required• Integrated pest management

• Reduction of chemical use and energy

• Agroecology

• Water conservation

• No-till practices

• Precision agriculture where appropriate

• Conserving genetic diversity

• Orphan Crops and Specialized (biofuel?) crops

• Genetic modification by marker assisted breeding

and GM technology where appropriate

• GM is not a Silver Bullet!!

Why Developing/Transition Countries

Have Problems with Food?• Limited Resources• Low Agricultural Productivity• Climate Change• Diminishing Productive Land/water• Poverty; Poor Distribution of Food• Misguided Priorities by politicians• Distribution/storage/transportation• Growing Population• Low Purchasing Power• Civil Strife, War • Economic and Environmental Migration

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

To feed a world of 9 billion people in 2050, without allowing for additional imports of food:

Africa has to increase its food production by 300 percent

Latin America by 80 percent; and Asia by 70 percent. Even North America must increase food production by 30 percent

•Without an Increase in Farm Productivity, Additional 1.6 Billion Hectares of Arable Land will be

Needed by 2050!

• 60 - 80% of Africans live on small farms

• Majority are women who farm on less than 3 acres

• Land and Labour are farmers most important assets

• Farms are undercapitalized, markets inefficient

• 30 - 50% of GDP in most African nations is from agriculture

• Huge environmental, pest and logistical challenges

• Estimates of maize yields around the world:

SSA: 3.8MT/ha; SE Asia: 4MT/ha; Europe & USA: 8MT-15MT/ha

• 25% grain imported, 40% post-harvest losses

Africa Population will double by 2025 to 1.5 billion

371

How Do We Move Forward?• Given present trends in population, food production, trade, and the

environment, the necessary increases in production and income generation in rural areas cannot be achieved simply by expandingcultivated land and using current technologies

• We must strive to attain global sustainability as a precondition for human progress. The only realistic option is to invest in the science and technology necessary to increase the efficiency of agriculture and attempt to reverse the impact of man-made climate change-SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION

• We must address population, affluence, and technology simultaneously to move toward sustainability

• While agricultural production must be intensified to meet projected demands for food, feed, fibre and biofuels, intensification strategies must also change to avoid adverse environmental impacts and to reverse the effects of past practicesWe must use all safe, appropriate, socially responsible and sustainable opportunities to increase food supplies locally and also improve ‘orphan crops. This can be achieved by combining the best of conventional plant breeding with the new biotechnologies including marker assisted breeding and genetic modification of crop plants

We can change our future –

Science

provides us

with

tremendous

opportunities

Policy makers

have

opportunities and

(yet) time to act