10 things we've learned about concept screening
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February 2015
10 Things We’ve Learned About Concept Screening
Predictive Markets turns 10 Years Old
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Concept Screening with Predictive Markets is 10 Years Old!
Big, old and wise – Predictive Markets turned 10 years old in February of 2015! From forecasting the future of fuel to backing Bollywood blockbusters, from predicting the coolest summer drinks to the hottest German singers, from Xmas toys to X-rated toys, how to name, claim and find fame – we’ve learnt a lot from testing over 30,000 concepts and 15 million virtual share deals.
Predictive Markets is BrainJuicer’s ground-breaking, award-winning idea screening solution – where the crowd picks winners by buying and selling shares in ideas.
Here are 10 things we didn’t know 10 years ago… but prove that when it comes to screening ideas for predicting success in market, Predictive Markets is a truly discriminating, effective way to screen for and spot breakthrough winners.
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Focus and aim for 25 words, not the traditional 80+. Length makes people linger with uncertainty rather than reassuring them.
No. 10: Less is more –
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Include intuitive visuals (even if you don’t have a pack shot) rather than explaining in detail. You won’t have the luxury of the latter in market.
No. 9: Show, don’t tell –
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There’s no need to include an insight statement introduction to your concept - it doesn’t help. Of course your concepts should be insightful though. If it helps you, start your concept writing with the insight at the top, but remove it before testing.
No. 8: Insight not insight statements –
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Testing unbranded concepts isn’t an automatic disadvantage, on average they score virtually the same as branded ones. Get the brand right and it can propel your idea up to 5-Star success but an inappropriate brand can lose you points.
No. 7: Brand can help or hinder –
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Predictive Markets isn’t just fun, fast and easy, it’s accurate. Our most recent validation (on new UK beer and cider launches) saw another strong correlation with market shares: +0.82.
No. 6: The crowd truly is wise –
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Even in a specialist healthcare category the PMs crowd has predicted the same winners as standard approaches with physicians - at just 10% of the cost!
No. 5: You can do more with a crowd -
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It's now possible to tap into the “Wisdom of Crowds” overnight with PM-AM.
No. 4: And if you are in a hurry, don't worry -
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Using the share dealing metaphor we see much lower variability in scores between countries and categories than with traditional concept screening.
No. 3: Projection aids stability -
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The projection sharing metaphor also boosts discrimination – withinprojects we see much greater spread of results than traditional screening, pulling apart the “wheat from the chaff” for easier, quicker decision making. It can spot polarizers which can be the sign a breakthrough idea.
No. 2: Projection boosts discrimination
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While purchase intention only makes sense for things you could
imagine buying yourself, the share dealing metaphor can be applied to
individual variables through to holistic, less tangible concepts
which aren’t for sale. Not just NPD ideas but packs, names, brands,
claims, celebrities, singers, politicians, movies…and intimate
products which people are less likely to admit buying!
No. 1!!!!!!! You can test just about anything –
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Turning human understanding into business advantage
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