Weekly Market Data Analysis

Week at a Glance

Average Price (Vol Weighted)

Median PriceAverage Price this week last yearNEM Average Price (excl. Tas)% of time Price <$50/MWh

Storages as at 2 November 2020Percentage FullCompared to last week 74

Max DemandMin DemandAverage DemandWeekly Energy Consumption

BasslinkTotal ExportTotal Import% time counter price flow

Total FCAS Costs (Tas)

Beginning of this week (GWh)

Percentage fullBeginning of last week (GWh)Change from last week (GWh)

Compared to last year (GWh)

GenerationHydro GenerationGas GenerationWind Generation

Sources: Hydro Tasmania/NEM-ReviewTM

Compiled by OTTER Page 1 Week 45 (01 November 2020 - 07 November 2020)

46.8121.1

38.41

(as at Monday 2 November 2020)

System6411

44.4%

263.95

GWh

GWh

$1000s

GWh

55.44

50.3498.2247.90

33.3

%GWh

MWMW

44.4

1369985

Week 45: 1 November 2020 to 7 November 2020 (Sunday - Saturday)

6411

$/MWh

$/MWh$/MWh$/MWh%

GWh

1130189.88

8.51

110.882.53

Water Storage Situation*

MWGWh

GWhGWh%

64851%

3%

*Water storage situation represents system storage levels exclusive of Lake Gairdner, Lake Margaret and Lake Plimsoll. These levels are used in the

publications of Hydro Tasmania, for historical consistency.

40.28

58.48

54.13

55.44

0 20 40 60 80

42

43

44

45

Average Price ($/MWh) - past 4 weeks

Week

8.5

19.6

38.6

46.8

20.6

24.6

5.7

8.5

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40

42

43

44

45

Basslink Import/Export (GWh) - past 4 weeks

WeekImport

Export

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov

De

ma

nd

/BL

flo

w (

MW

)

Tasmanian Demand & Basslink flow during the week

BL Import Tasmanian Generation Tasmanian Demand

TASMANIAN

MARKETWATCH

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Sto

rage (

GW

h)

Week

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fact Sheet Compiled using information from NEM-ReviewTM and AEMO published data

Market Price This week Last week ChangeAverage Price (Volume weighted) $/MWh 55.44 54.13 UP by 2.4%Median Price $/MWh 50.34 49.38 UP by 1.9%Maximum Price $/MWh 244.86 222.90Minimum Price $/MWh 6.65 10.68% of intervals price was below $50/MWh % 33.3% 58.0%

Recorded max weekly average since 29.4.06 $/MWh 406.10 Week 25/2009Recorded min weekly average since 29.4.06 $/MWh 0.46 Week 6/2010

Demand OccurrenceMaximum Demand during the week* MW 1369Minimum Demand during the week MW 985Average Demand during the week MW 1130Weekly System Load Factor (LF) % 74.77%Spring Average LF (Sep 19 - Nov 19) % 71.90%Weekly Energy Consumption GWh 189.88* all data relating to demand includes network losses

Recorded maximum peak for 2020 MW 1737Recorded maximum peak to date MW 1760 11 August 2008

Basslink Export Import Net/TotalTotal Export/Import GWh 8.51 46.81 Net Import 38.31Max flow during export/import MW 458 459Inter-regional revenue generated* $1000s 244.64 873.50 1118.14Max +ve price differential observed $/MWh 143.37 151.41Max -ve price differential observed $/MWh -174.87 -62.72No of intervals of counter price flow 18 53% time of counter price flow % 5.36% 15.8% 21.1%No-go zone flows (% of total MWh flows) % 0.00% 0.10% 0.08%

* Losses in the link are not considered in the calculation of residues.

FCAS Costs Tasmania Mainland Total NEMTotal FCAS costs $1000s 263.95 2500.43 2764.38% of Total Energy Costs % 2.77% 1.67% 1.73%Cost of Lower Services $1000s 23.00 563.25 586.26% of Total Energy Costs % 0.24% 0.38% 0.37%Cost of Raise Services $1000s 240.95 1937.17 2178.12% of Total Energy Costs % 2.53% 1.29% 1.36%

Price and Demand Trends in the WeekWeekly Average = $55.44/MWh

Compiled by OTTER Page 2 Week 45 (01 November 2020 - 07 November 2020)

10 August 2020

The spot price in Tasmania reached more than three times the weekly average on 2 occasions during the week.

06 November 2020 7:00 AM

03 November 2020 1:00 AM

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

01-Nov-20 02-Nov-20 03-Nov-20 04-Nov-20 05-Nov-20 06-Nov-20 07-Nov-20

$/M

Wh

MW

Demand and Price Profiles of the week - Tasmania Demand Price

19.34

55.82

23.57

1.28

Wind

Hydro

Basslink Import

Gas *

0 50 100* represents output from TVPS

% weekly generation by source

Market snapshot

Compiled by OTTER Page 3 Week 45 (01 November 2020 - 07 November 2020)

Other Market News and Trends

Compared to last week, average spot prices for the week increased in all NEM jurisdictions. Weekly average volume weighted spot

prices ranged between $42.82/MWh in South Australia and $55.44/MWh in Tasmania. Tasmanian spot prices were predominately in

the $51 - $75 /MWh range during the week, with a minimum of $6.65/MWh and a maximum of $244.86/MWh.

Turnover in the energy market was $159.66 million (turnover in the Tasmanian region was $9.53 million). The total cost of ancillary

services in the NEM for the week was $2.76 million or 1.73% of energy market turnover. The Tasmanian contribution to total FCAS costs

was 9.5%.

0.3%1.5%

1.8%

7.1%

22.6%

56.0%

6.3%3.6%

0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-7

5

76-1

00

101-1

50

151-2

00

201-5

00

501

-50

00

>5000

Occu

rre

nce

(%

)

Price Range ($/MWh)

Price Distribution within the week (Tasmania)

Occurrence

% below the range

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

QLD NSW VIC SA TAS

Weekly Average spot prices in the NEM ($/MWh)

Last week

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$/M

Wh

Year

Median Weekly Price per NEM Region 2008-2020 (year-to-date)

QLD NSW VIC SA TAS

Tasmanian rainfall for the week

Tasmanian Rainfall Totals (mm)

© Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Bureau of Meteorology

Compiled by OTTER Page 4 Week 45 (01 November 2020 - 07 November 2020)

Week Ending 7 November 2020

17/11/2020Issued:

Map showing rainfall (mm) for the week over Hydro catchment areas.

Wholesale Electricity Market Contract Regulation

here

Prices in approved financial contracts offered by Hydro Tasmania as at 03 November 2020

Traffic Light Indicators

here

Q121 1 1

Q221 1 1

Q321 3 3

Q421 3 2

Q122 2 3

Q222 3 3

Q322 3 3

Q422 3 3

Key:

Compiled by OTTER Page 5 Week 45 (01 November 2020 - 07 November 2020)

Disclaimer: Although this report has been prepared in good faith using information and reports publicly available from web sites and

other sources, the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator assumes no liability as to the reliability and accuracy of the

information provided. Readers should refer to the 'Guide to reading Market Watch' for definitions of terms and an overview of the

data and charts used in this weekly bulletin.

To help you understand the information in this section, please refer to the Regulator's Wholesale Pricing page available

Significant head room (>130MW of capacity, >200GWh of energy) still available

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Active

Contract

Quarter

For more information on the role of the traffic light indicators, please refer to the Market Watch Readers Guide available

No head room available

The traffic light indicators advise market participants of the availability of energy for Regulator-approved contracts under the Wholesale

Contract Regulatory Instrument in each of the eight forward quarters in which Hydro Tasmania is required to offer approved contracts.

Limited head room (0-130MW of capacity, 0-200GWh of energy) available

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q121 Q221 Q321 Q421 Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422

$/M

Wh

Contract quarter - calendar years

Cap Peak swap Base load swap Load following swap

Capacity Energy