Water and agriculture in Europe

under a changing climate

Martin ParryImperial College London

martin@mlparry.com

“

Rising atmospheric temperature

Rising sea level

Reductions in NH snow cover

Warming is “unequivocal”

THE KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF EUROPEAN CLIMATE CHANGE

• Annual temperatures increase at the rate of 0.1 to 0.4C/decade

• Hot summers will double in frequency by 2020 (increase x5 in S. Spain); 10 times as frequent by 2080

• Summers become drier in S. Europe

• Winters become wetter in N. Europe; and intensity of rainfall increases

• Additional risks: possibility of change in the Gulf Stream; at present little known about this.

Summer Precipitation (only significant changes shown) Acacia project

Daily maximum temperaturesNumber of days per year above 30°C UK Met. Office

1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 200

Present 2080s

WATER AVAILABILITY, 2050s(CHANGE IN ANNUAL RUNOFF) Acacia Project

WATER AVAILABILITY

• Increased availability of water in northern Europe; increased risk of flooding.

• Reduced availability of water in southern Europe.

• And in the mountains: increased flood risk (20% increase of flood risk in Alps

• Reduced summer rainfall will increase risks of:– Irrigation water shortages

– Reduced diluting of pollution

– Reduced crop yields

– Soil loss on light lands

– Reduced water cooling

for power stations

Impacts of reduced Summer rainfall

• Heavier, more intense winter rainfall will increase risks of:

–River flooding–Soil leaching–Soil water-logging, –Difficult access to land

for animals/machines

Impacts of winter rainfall increase

…

Effects on food production

Suitability for grain maize cultivation with increasing temperature

+5°C+4°C+3°C+2°C+1°Cbaseline (1961-1990)unsuitable

Expansion of suitable area with increased temperature

NORTHWARD SHIFDT OF FARMING POTENTIALSuitability for grain maize, sunflower and soya, 2050s

red/brown/blue: suitability extensiongreen/yellow/purple: Baseline 1961-90

Changes in wheat yield, 2080 (amount of agreement between 9 regional models, A2)

PRUDENCE

Reduced yield in all modelsIncreased yield in all modelsModels do not agree

France: Several thousand excess deaths

Dry Danube

Croatia - fires

UK train tracks buckle

HEATWAVEAUGUST,

2003 IN EUROPE

Effects of 2003 summer heat wave on EU agriculture

COPA

Yield change (%)

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

Austria 197 m €

Spain 810 m €

Italy 4/5000 m €

Germay 1500 m €

France 4000 m €

(1500 m € for cattle)

Fodder/cattle

Wheat

Maize

Farmed landscape,Eastern England, 2050 ?

Univ of East Anglia, U.K.Northward movement of crops

Farm-scale biofuel power stationIntroduction of biofuel crops e.g. Miscanthus spp.

Increase in renewable energy sources

Farmed landscape, Eastern England, 2000

climate change over

Europe

Global climate change

First order impacts on food production

Second order effects on world

prices and demand

Global climate change

First order impacts on food production

Second order effects on world

prices and demand

Europe in the context of global climate change

Most key impacts stem from reduced water availability.Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-thirds of models

agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)

UndefinedSI > 75 : Very highSI > 63 : High SI > 50 : GoodSI > 35 : Medium SI > 20 : ModerateSI > 5 : Marginal SI > 0 : Very marginalNot suitableWater Suitability for rain-fed cereals (reference climate, 1961-90).

Change in suitability for rain-fed cereals (HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s).

-100-88-75-63-50-38-25-13013253850637588100

Financed adaptation

1 2 3 4

Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrialCancun agreed$100 bn target

funding

Emissions cuts pledged at Copenhagen

mitigation

Emission peak 2035; T peaks 2100 at c. 3 deg C

outcomefor current pledges

Financed adaptation

Impacts notavoided

1 2 3 4

Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial

outcomefor current pledges

Financed adaptation

Impacts notavoided

1 2 3 4

Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial

TASK1

TASK2

Conclusions (1) : Effects…

• Warmer in the north; drier in the south; intensification of rainfall; increased frequency of extremely hot days or seasons.

• This implies more benefits to the north; more “disbenefits” to the south.

• Will worsen current resource issues: e.g, more water shortage and heat stress in south; and more flooding in the centre, north and mountains.

• May aggravate current environmental problems: eg desertification in south; soil leaching in north.

• = a south-to-north geographical shift of climate resources in Europe; increasing the difference in regional resource endowment.

Conclusions (2) : Implications for policy in Europe

• Need : a) a north-to-south shift of support policies to compensate for shift of climate resources.

• Need: b) to “mainstream” climate change into EU policy development: eg

i) into environmental policies, such as directives on water, policies on desertification. (This has started).

ii) into regional support policies.

• In the global context, Europe faces less negative effects than most other parts of the world, implying:

a) There may be an opportunity to increase Europe’s share of world food production;

b) And, from the global viewpoint, it will be necessary to increase food production in Europe in order to maintain global food security.

Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation

http:// www.provia-climatechange.org

Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation

http:// www.provia-climatechange.org

Professor Martin ParryGrantham Institute, Imperial College London

Chair, Pro-Via Interim Scientific Steering Committee

THANK YOU!