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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II ate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerab Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

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Page 1: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Working Group IIClimate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Martin Parry and Osvaldo CanzianiCo-Chairs

Page 2: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Some Key Conclusions Of WGII THIRD Assessment

Some effects of regional climate change can be observed now.

Ecosystems and species are vulnerable and some will be irreversibly damaged or lost.

Adverse impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on a) developing countries and the poor; b) small island and low-lying areas.

Changes in extremes could have major consequences

Adaptation is a necessary strategy to complement mitigation; yet capacity varies greatly.

Page 3: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

How future assessments can be improved: Recommendations Of WG2 Third Assessment (Policymakers Summary, p. 17)

More quantified assessment of all aspects, including in relation to extreme events

Assessment of possible thresholds Understanding responses to multiple stresses Improved knowledge of adaptation costs, obstacles, options Assessment of the full range of impacts : monetary and non-

market, in multiple metrics, eg numbers of people affected, land areas, species at risk, etc.

Improved regional assessment Impacts under different stabilisation levels Advances in relation to: a) risk assessment and management; b)

decision-making processes; c) sustainable development initiatives.

Improved monitoring and observing effects of climate and other stresses on human and natural systems

Page 4: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

What are current key the science questions relevant to policy?

KEY POLICY ISSUES

Avoiding certain key effects

Developing effective adaptation

Seeking sustainable development in a future with climate change

Meeting the challenge of climate change and variability now

SCIENCE QUESTIONS

Where are the key vulnerabilities – regions, sectors?

What would be rates/magnitudes/types of climate change that could lead to these effects?

Extent/limits of adaptive capacity? Its effectiveness and cost? (especially

vs. mitigation)

How does vulnerability and adaptive capacity vary under different paths of economic/social development?

Extent to which early effects are detectable, now?

Evidence for (and measurement of) effectiveness of (current) adaptation?

Page 5: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

• Assessment of effects which are observable now, and what can we learn from these.

• Assessment of effects of unmitigated climate change, and how might these vary under different development pathways.

• Assessment of effects avoided or reduced by adaptation.

• Assessment of impacts/adaptation requirements under different levels of mitigation

The initially identified Four Key Issues for WGII in Fourth Assessment

(presented to IPCC Plenary, Paris 2003)

Page 6: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

OUTLINE FOR WORKING GROUP II : IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT

CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

I. ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES

1. Assessment of Observed Changes in Natural and Managed Systems

II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS AND SYSTEMS

2. New Methods and Scenarios of the Future

3. Fresh Water Resources and their Management

4. Ecosystems and their Services

5. Food, Fibre, Forestry, and Fisheries

6. Coasts and Low-lying Areas

7. Industry, Settlement, and Society

8. Human Health

III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION:REGIONS

9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America

14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands

IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS

17. Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice

18. Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation

19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk of climate change

20. Perspectives on Climate Change and Sustainability

Red = topics of especial interest to the Pre-Sessional Consultation

Page 7: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Section IV: Assessment of Responses to Impacts

What more is now known about adaptation: especially options, costs, barriers

How much do we know about the trade-offs and complementarities between adaptation and mitigation

What we know about the risk of key impacts and its relationship to stabilisation/mitigation.

What conclusions can we draw from current knowledge regarding climate change in the context of other stresses and its implications for sustainability.

Page 8: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Chapter 17: Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice.

Will draw on and integrate material from sectoral and regional chapters; incl. information on adaptation to current climate variability and change.

Four sections: concepts; current practice; capacity and options; enhancing capacity

Page 9: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Chapter 18: Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation.

Overall action to address climate change will be a mix of adaptation and mitigation.

Adaptation and mitigation are quite different in many respects: e.g., the timing and space scales and stakeholders involved.

Available research on costs and damages avoided will be assessed.

Mixes of strategies, trade-off and synergies will be considered.

Uncertainty

Page 10: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

The Cost of Stabilising CO2 Concentrations(from Synthesis Report of TAR)

Page 11: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION

Reduction in Atmospheric CO2 ppm

Cos

ts o

f m

itiga

tion

Costs of da

mag

e

COST DAMAGE

Costs at local, national, global; or project level(Missing from TAR)

Page 12: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION

Reduction in Atmospheric CO2 ppm

Cos

ts o

f m

itiga

tion C

osts of dam

ageCOST DAMAGE

Low Adaptation

High Adaptation

Costs of ad

aptation Costs at local, national, global or project level

Page 13: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

What do we know about the connections between mitigation, adaptation and impacts ?

No action

Allmitigation

All adaptation

Mix ofmitigate/ adapt/

impact

Cost ofadaptation

less more

Cost of

mitigation

less

more

Cos

t of

impa

cts

less

mor

e

(Holdridge diagram)

Page 14: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change

What/where would be the key impacts (for given places, sectors, etc) under unmitigated climate change

What information is available to determine the climate change that would lead to occurrence of these.

Assess the response strategies to avoid occurrence : with a focus on stabilisation/mitigation, but also considering adaptation

Uncertainty, risk and decision making will be a central issue in this chapter.

Page 15: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions

% Y

ield

+

0

- N. India

S. Europe

N. England

Local producers ?

Regional security ?

Global food security ?

Page 16: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Changes in river runoff from the present day to the 2080s

Unmitigated emissions

Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm

University of Southampton

–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)

Page 17: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Millions at Risk in the 2080s

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25Temperature Increase

Ad

dit

ion

al

mil

lio

ns

of

pe

op

le a

t ri

sk o

f h

un

ge

r, m

ala

ria

a

nd

co

ast

al

flo

od

ing

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25

Ad

dit

ion

al

mil

lio

ns

of

pe

op

le a

t ri

sk o

f in

cre

ase

d

wa

ter

sho

rta

ge Risk of water shortage

Risk of malaria

Risk of hunger

Risk of coastal flooding

Legend

Sta

b.

550

Sta

b.

650

Un

mit

iga

ted

em

issi

on

s -

IS92

a

Sta

b.

450

Sta

b.

750

Sta

b.

1000

Page 18: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

CONCLUSIONS

More quantification of damage estimates/damage reductions under array of different strategies (at project, regional, national and global levels)

Improved understanding of synergies/trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation (these strategies have different stakeholders, timescales, space-scales, etc).

Assessment of key impact levels (eg “food production, ecosystems, sustainable development…” in Art 2), and avoidance of these by both mitigation and adaptation