wapor esomar guidelines

7/31/2019 Wapor Esomar Guidelines

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ESOMAR WORLD RESEARCH CODES & GUIDELINES

ESOMAR/WAPOR GUIDE

TO OPINION POLLS ANDPUBLISHED SURVEYS

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A ESOMAR wor research coes aguieies, icuig atest upates, are

avaiabe oie at www.esomar.org

2009 ESOMAR/WAPOR. All rights reserved. No part o this publicationmay be reproduced or copied in any orm or by any means, or translated,without the prior permission in writing o ESOMAR or WAPOR.

The ESOMAR/WAPOR Guide to Opinion Polls and Published Surveys wasdrated in English and the English tet is the denitive version.

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Introduction to the guide 2

1. Opinion polls and democracy an overview 3

2. freuently ased uestions about polls 4

3. Guideline or the publication o opinion poll and survey results 14

3.1 Itrouctio 14

3.2 Scope 163.3 Requiremets of the ICC/ESOMAR Iteratioa Coe 16

3.3.1 Geera requiremets 16

3.3.2 Specic requiremets for pubishe

pubic opiio surves 17

3.3.3 Arragemets betwee the Research

Orgaisatio a its Ciet 21

4. Specic guidance on conducting pre-election

opinion polls and polls on voting intention 24

4.1 Itrouctio 24

4.2 The Guieies 25

4.2.1 Timig of ework 25

4.2.2 Sampe size 25

4.2.3 Sampe istributio 26

4.2.4 Teephoe iterviewig 27

4.2.5 Oie pos 27

4.2.6 Weightig 28

4.2.7 Ajustmets 28

4.2.8 Surve cotet 29

4.2.9 Time series 29

4.2.10 Cosistet esig 29

4.2.11 Iicator variabes 29

4.2.12 Uusua po resuts 30

5. Guideline on conducting eit polls and election result orecasts 31

5.1. Itrouctio 31

5.2. Specic requiremets for exit pos 31

5.2.1. Items for miima iscosure 32

5.2.2. Eectio projectio methos a their iscosure 34

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3WHy OPInIOn POllS ARE ESSEnTIAl FOR dEMOCRACy

be a How to o it maua. The subjectof pubic opiio research a the

measuremet of votig itetio co-tiue to evove a each eectio mabrig ew circumstaces the research-er must aress. The professioa skisa previous experiece of poigorgaisatios are essetia compoetsof effective pubic opiio research. It isot possibe to write them ito guie-ies or coes of practice.

1. OPINION POLLS ANDDEMOCRACY AN OVERVIEW

Pubic opiio is a critica force ishapig a trasformig societ.Proper coucte a issemiatesurve research gives the geerapubic a opportuit for its voice to be

hear. Through opiio research thepubic, poiticias, the meia a otheritereste groups have access toaccurate measures of pubic attituesa itetios.

Scietic poig is amog the mostsuccessfu poitica eveopmets of theast cetur. Pubic opiio pos hep

guie poic b givig ecisio-makersimpartia iformatio about what thepubic wats. Pos aso aert the pubicto their ow hopes, esires, a poiti-ca goas. The are mirrors, permittigiiviuas to uersta where the tito the poitica sstem. Meia reports

of the resuts of opiio pos te rea-ers a isteers that their opiios are

importat, a ca eve sometimes bemore importat tha the opiios of theeite.

The emocratic urge towars participa-tio a the jouraistic esire to askquestios have merge to create theextesive meia poig of the ast 70ears. Imagie a poitica sstem where

the pubic is to what it thiks b itspoitica eaers, where eectio wi-ers have the abiit to te voters whthe vote the wa the i a wherethe govermet, whe it ooks for pub-ic iput, asks o its fries whatthe pubic thiks. The aterative toproper coucte pos is a pubic aa govermet expose o to uscie-

tic a probab iaccurate assertiosabout what peope beieve, i macases presete b partisa iiviuasor orgaisatios with a poitica agea.

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4 UndERSTAndInG OPInIOn POllS

2. fREqUENTLY ASkEDqUESTIONS ABOUT POLLS

1. What is an opinion poll?A opiio po is a scietic a repre-setative surve esige to measurethe views of a specic group forexampe a coutrs eectors (for mostpoitica pos) or parets or trae uiomembers.

2. What maes a survey scientic?The two mai characteristics of sci-etic surves are a) that respoetsare chose b the research orgaisa-tio accorig to expicit criteria toesure represetativeess, rather thabeig sef-seecte, a b) that ques-tios are wore i a baace wa.For exampe, if the popuatio beig

sampe cotais 52% who are womea 30% who are over 55, the a sci-etic opiio po wi represet thosegroups appropriate a the ques-tios wi be baace a ot ea therespoet towars a particuaraswer.

3. How does a poll choose a sample

that is truly representative?There are two mai methos. The rstis raom sampig, the seco quo-ta sampig. With raom sampig, apoig orgaisatio either uses a ist ofraom-raw teephoe umbers oremai aresses (for teephoe or some

Iteret pos); or visits raom-raw aresses or ames from a ist

such as a eectora register (for someface-to-face surves). The poigorgaisatio the cotacts peope othose teephoe umbers or at thosearesses, usig a raom seec-tio proceure, a asks them to takepart i the surve. Quota sampigivoves settig quota cotros for ex-ampe, age a geer a ettig the

iterviewer seek out ifferet peopewho, together, match those char-acteristics. Surves base o quotasampig are ofte use i face-to-facesurves. I aitio, some Iteret posempo quota sampig to seect repre-setative sampes from a atabase ofpeope who have area provie suchiformatio about themseves. Quota

sampig ma be use, i otherwiseraom sampe teephoe surves,to seect the perso to be iterviewewithi the househo, i orer to speeup the ework process.

4. Do polling companies do anythingelse to achieve representativesamples?

yes, the o. Whie we-coucteraom a quota sampes proviea broa approximatio to the pubic,there are severa reasos wh themight cotai sight too ma of somegroups a sight too few of others.What orma happes is that poig

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UndERSTAndInG OPInIOn POllS

compaies ask respoets ot oabout their views but aso about them-

seves. This iformatio is the use tocompare the sampe with, for exampe,cesus statistics. The raw umbersfrom the po ma the be ajustesight, up or ow, to match the pro-e of the popuatio beig survee.If, for exampe, a po s that, wheits surve-work is compete, it has 100members of a particuar emographic

group, but shou have 110 of them (ia po of, sa, 1,000 or 2,000), the itwi weight the aswers of that groupso that each of those 100 respoetscouts as 1.1 peope. This wa, thepubishe percetages shou reectthe popuatio as a whoe.

5. Are other inds o surveys bound

to be wrong?no. Just as a stoppe cock tes theright time twice a a, uscieticsurves wi occasioa prouce rightpercetages. But the are far moreike to be iaccurate. The most com-mo forms of uscietic surves arephoe-i pos coucte b teevi-sio programmes a sef-seectig

surves coucte over the Iteret.These cotai two efects. First, theirsampes are sef-seectig. Such poste to attract peope who fee pas-sioate about the subject of the po,rather tha a represetative sampe.Seco, such pos seom coect

the ki of extra iformatio (such asgeer a age) that wou aow some

jugemet to be mae about the atureof the sampe.

6. But surely a phone-in or write-inpoll in which, say, one millionpeople tae part is liely to be moreaccurate than an opinion poll sampleo 1,000?not so. A biase sampe is a biase

sampe, however arge it is. Oeceebrate exampe of this was the USPresietia Eectio i 1936. A maga-zie, literar digest, set out 10 miiopost cars askig peope how thewou vote, receive amost 2.3 miioback a sai that Afre lao waseaig Fraki Roosevet b 57-43percet. The digest i ot gather

iformatio that wou aow it to jugethe quait of its sampe a correct, orweight, groups that were uer- oroverrepresete. Sice the literardigest set its postcars primari toiiviuas with teephoes a auto-mobies, their sampe icue fewworkig cass peope. A oug postercae George Gaup empoe a much

smaer sampe (though, at 50,000, itwas much arger tha those ormause toa), but because he esurethat it was represetative, he correctshowe Roosevet o course to wi ba asie.

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Suppose peope who ho view A arefar more ike to be members of a

reigious or ethic miorit who refuseto aswer questios tha peope whoho view B. Uess the poig com-pa is aware of this bias, a kowshow big it is, it cou we prouceresuts showig that view B is far morepopuar tha view A. This is a exampeof a sstematic error.To measure the true margi of error,

we wou ee to take accout ofraom sampig error, a the effectsof straticatio, a possibe sstematicerrors. The troube is that it is har,a arguab impossibe, to be sureof the true impact of straticatio asstematic errors. (If the impact of asstematic errors were kow, a com-petet surve compa wou ajust its

resuts to compesate for them.)

11. Doesnt this mean that polls cantreally be trusted at all?no. Pos ma ot be perfect, butthe are sti the best wa of measurigwhat the pubic thiks. I mostcoutries where po resuts ca becompare with actua resuts (such

as eectios), we-esige pos areusua accurate to withi 3 percetagepoits, eve if the occasioa straoutsie that margi of error. Moreover,much of the time, pos provie a googuie to the state of opiio, eveaowig for a arger margi of error. If

a we-esige, represetative surves that the pubic ivies 70-30%

o a issue, the a margi of error ofeve 10 percetage poits caot aterthe fact that oe view is expresse farmore wie tha the other. However, itis true that i a cose-fought eectio,a poig ea (i a sampe of 1-2,000)of ess tha 5 percetage poits for oecaiate or part over aother caotbe regare as a certai iicator of

who was ahea at the time the survewas take et aoe a guaratee ofwho wi i the as, weeks or mothsahea.

12. Can I Trust an Internet Poll?The aswer epes o the peopebeig sampe a the aswer is thesame for teephoe or face-to-face

iterviewig as we, ot just theiteret. If a represetative sampe ofpeope ca be reache b a of theseiterviewig moes, the aswer ises, the po ca be truste. There arepaces a popuatios where it is verifcut for a iterviewer to get a rep-resetative sampe usig face-to-faceiterviewig, just as there are paces

a popuatios where o certaicasses of peope have teephoes oraccess to the iteret. Obvious if theiterviewig moe caot be correcteb straticatio a weightig to aowfor this bias, the iterviewig moecaot provie a represetative sampe

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a shou ot be truste. I somecases the coverage of the iteret ma

be sufciet high for iteret iter-viewig to be a goo, or eve the best,wa of carrig out surves, but withthe eve of access to the iteret stiow a urepresetative i most cou-tries, iteret pos of the geera pubicshou be treate with cautio.Iteret surves use paes of peopewho have give permissio to be

cotacte for surves. The ESOMAR26 Questios to Hep Research Buersof Oie Sampes provies hep ohow to assess the quait of a iteretpae sampe.

13. I have seen polls conducted bydierent, well-regarded, companieson the same issue produce very di-

erent results. How come?There are a umber of possibe rea-sos, beo those issues reate tosampig error.a) The pos might have bee couct-e at ifferet times, eve if theare pubishe at the same time. If theviews of ma peope are ui, aiabe to chage i respose to evets,

the it might be that both pos werebroa right, a that the pubic mooshifte betwee the earier a theater surve.b) The pos ma have use iffereteitios of the group that theare represetig (e.g. ifferet age,

regios, ethic groups etc.)c) The might have bee coucte

usig ifferet methos. Resuts cabe subject to moe effects: that is,some peope might, coscious orsub-coscious, give ifferet aswersepeig o whether the are askequestios i perso b a iterviewer,or impersoa i sef-competiosurves set b post or emai/Iteret.There is some eviece that

aomous sef-competio survesma secure greater caour o somesesitive issues, tha face-to-face orteephoe surves.d) The pos might have aske ifferetquestios. Worig matters, especiao subjects where ma peope o othave strog views. It is awas worthcheckig the exact worig whe pos

appear to iffer.e) There might be a orer effect.Oe po might ask a particuar questioco, at the begiig of asurve; aother po might ask thesame questio warm, after a seriesof other questios o the same topic.differeces sometimes arise betweethe two sets of resuts, agai whe

ma peope o ot have strog views,a some peope ma give ifferetaswers epeig o whether theare aske a questio out of the bue orafter beig ivite to cosier someaspects of the issue rst.

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14. Does the way the uestion isased inuence the answers?

There is a great ea of kowegeabout how questios shou be wore,base o what we kow about howpeope process iformatio. But this isrea a matter of commo sese. It isimportat to ook at the exact questiowhich was aske a, if possibe, tocheck the questios aske before it.Questios ca cotai cocepts withi

them which ea the respoet ia certai irectio e.g. There seemto be fewer poiceme o the streetsa a ot of peope arou here arecocere about risig crime, o outhik the poice i this area are over-stretche? or questios which cotaimore tha oe cocept but where ooe aswer is reporte e.g. How we

is the cit couci eaig with trafccogestio a the ack of pubic tras-port? reporte as the eve of cocerwith pubic trasport. Questios ikethese wi ot provie cear or hepfuaswers about what peope rea thikof the poice or pubic trasport.

The cotext i which questios are

aske ca obvious iuece the wai which peope respo. If a questioabout cocer with crime is aske aftera series of questios about whetherpeope have ever fet ervous o pubictrasport or have a reative or friewho has bee mugge etc. it is ike

that more peope wi sa the arecocere tha if this questio ha

bee aske before the others.Whe usig aswers to questios ikethis, it is importat to be aware thatthe questios were biase or ambigu-ous a therefore the aswers caotbe a accurate reectio of what thepeope aswerig them rea beieve.This tpe of questioig is particuarpopuar with pressure groups, who use

them to tr a get meia coverage fortheir poit of view. Resposibe joura-ists a commetators shou otreport those pos, or the shou rawattetio to miseaig questios whereportig the resuts of opiio pos.

15. When I read or see a report o apoll, how can I tell whether to tae it

seriously or not?Check the foowig:

a) Who conducted the poll?Was it a reputabe, iepeet poigorgaisatio? If ot, the regar its -igs with cautio. If ou are ot sure, theoe test is its wiigess to aswer thequestios beow. Reputabe poig rms

wi provie ou with the iformatioou ee to evauate the surve.

b) Who paid or the poll and whywas it done?If it was coucte for a respectemeia outet, or for iepeet

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researchers, there is a goo chaceit was coucte impartia. If it was

coucte for a partisa ciet, such asa compa, pressure group or poiticapart, it might sti be a goo surve(athough reaers/isteers/viewersshou be to who the ciet was). Thevaiit of the po epes o whetherit was coucte b a orgaisatiothat use a scietic approach to sam-pig a questioaire esig, whether

it aske impartia questios, a whetherfu iformatio about the questios askea resuts obtaie are provie. If suchiformatio is provie, the the quait ofthe surve stas or fas accorig to itsitrisic merits. If such iformatio is otprovie, the the po shou be treatewith cautio. I either evet, watch out foroae questios a seective igs,

esige to boster the view of the ciet,rather tha report pubic opiio fua objective.

c) How many people wereinterviewed or the survey?The more peope, the better athougha sma-sampe scietic surve isAlWAyS better tha a arge-sampe

sef-seectig surve. note, however,that the tota sampe size is ot awasthe o reevat umber. For exampe,votig itetio surves ofte showgures excuig ot kows,respoets cosiere uike tovote, a those who refuse to iscose

their preferece. Whie excuig thesegroups esures that, the po reports

the opiio of the most reevat group ike voters reporte votig-i-tetio sampe size ma be sigicatower tha the tota sampe, a therisk of sampig error therefore greater.likewise, be carefu whe comparigsub-groups for exampe me awome. The sampig error for eachsub-group cou be sigicat higher

tha for the sampe as a whoe. If thetota sampe is 500, a mae up ofequa umbers of me a wome,the margi of error for each geer(coutig o raom errors aisregarig a sstematic errors) isarou 6 percetage poits.

d) How were those people chosen?

Is it cear who is icue i the sampea who was eft out? If the po caimsto represet the pubic as a whoe (ora sigicat group of the pubic), hasthe poig compa empoe oe ofthe methos outie i poits 2,3 a4 above? If the po was sef-seectig such as reaers of a ewspaper ormagazie, or teevisio viewers writig,

teephoig, emaiig or textig i the it shou nEVER be presete asa represetative surve. If the po wascoucte i certai ocatios but otothers, for exampe, cities but ot ruraareas, the this iformatio shou bemae cear i a report.

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e) When was the poll done?Evets have a ramatic impact o po

resuts. The iterpretatio of a poshou epe o whe it was co-ucte reative to ke evets. Eve thefreshest po resuts ca be overtakeb evets. Po resuts that are severaweeks or moths o ma be perfectvai, for exampe, if the coceruerig cutura attitues or behav-iour rather tha topica evets, but the

ate whe the po was coucte (asistict from pubishe) shou awasbe iscose. The ate of the eworkis particuar importat for pre-eectiopos where votig itetio ca chageright up to the momet the voterrecors their vote.

) How were the interviews con-

ducted?There are four mai methos: iperso, b teephoe, oie or bmai. Each metho has its stregthsa weakesses. Teephoe surveso ot reach those who o ot haveteephoes. Emai surves reach othose peope with Iteret access. Amethos epe o the avaiabiit a

voutar co-operatio of the respo-ets approache; respose rates caver wie. I a cases, reputabecompaies have eveope statisticatechiques to aress these issues acovert their raw ata ito represeta-tive resuts (see poits 3 a 4 above).

g) What were people ased?Tr to get a cop of the fu questio-

aire, ot just the pubishe questios.A reputabe orgaisatio wi pubishthe questioaire o its website, orprovie it o request. decie if thequestios were baace a be cau-tious about the resuts if the iterviewwas structure i a wa which seemeto ea the respoet towars aparticuar cocusio.

h) Are the results in line withother polls?If it is possibe, check other pos to seeif the resuts are simiar or ver iffer-et. Surves aimig to cover the sametopic shou come to simiar cocu-sios. If the aswers are ver ifferet,the reasos ma become apparet

whe the questioaire or the sampigmetho is examie.

i) Was it a push poll?The purpose of push pos is tosprea rumours a eve outright iesabout oppoets. These efforts are otpos, but poitica maipuatio trigto hie behi the smokescree of a

pubic opiio surve. I a push po,a arge umber of peope are cae bteephoe a aske to participate i apurporte surve. The surve ques-tios are rea thi-veie accusa-tios agaist a oppoet or repeti-tios of rumours about a caiates

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persoa or professioa behaviour. Thefocus here is o makig certai the

respoet hears a uerstas theaccusatio i the questio, ot i gath-erig the respoets opiios. Pushpos have o coectio with geuieopiio surves. The best wa to guaragaist push pos is to out whocoucte the surve. Reputabe com-paies have othig to o with pushpos, a pheomeo that has grow i

recet ears i a umber of coutries.

j) Was it a valid eit poll?This questio appies o at eectios.Exit pos, proper coucte, are aexceet source of iformatio aboutvoters i a give eectio. The are theo opportuit to surve actua votersa o voters. The are geera

coucte immeiate after peopehave vote, a are therefore abe (itheor) to report actua behaviour. Pre-eectio surves, eve those couctethe a before the vote, caot etireavoi the ager that some peope machage their mi, about whether tovote or which part/caiate to sup-port, at the ver ast miute.

Proper coucte, the are aexceet source of iformatio aboutvoters i a give eectio. I aitio toaswerig the questio Who wo?the provie iformatio to aswer thequestios: Who vote for the wier

a wh i caiate/part (a) orcaiate /part (b) wi?. Exit pos

are characterise b a eaborateesig a a much higher umberof iterviews tha pre-eectio pos;ofte tes of thousas a, i somecoutries, hures of thousas areiterviewe.

Exit pos have four istict sources oferror, apart from pure raom error:

Supporters of oe caiate/part ma be more wiig to iscosetheir vote tha supporters of aother.This pheomeo, ifferetiaorespose,is especia har to

juge accurate i exit pos.

Some peope ma geuie have

thought the vote for a particuarcaiate/part, but ma iavertethave vote for someoe ese, or spoietheir baot paper or (whe usig votigmachies) ot have compete theprocess proper.

Exit pos ma ot have beecoucte o a absoute represeta-

tive group of poig statios. Eve ifthe tota sampe is ver arge sa,5,000 or more it ma suffer from aeffect kow as custerig. If, sa, 50poig statios are seecte, a 100voters questioe at each, the gurescou be wrog if the overa poitica

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baace of those 50 poig istricts iseve sight askew.

There ma be operatioa ifcutiesi sampig voters accurate at poigpaces either because of iterfereceb oca eectio ofcias or because ofega restrictios o where iterviewersm sta. Reputabe poig orgai-satios go to cosierabe egthsto avoi these probems. Other or-

gaisatios ma couct exit pos ia miima umber of votig ocatiosusig iterviewers who o ot haveexperiece or speciaist traiig i thismetho of poig.

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14 HOW TO PUBlISH OPInIOn POll And SURVEy RESUlTS

3. GUIDELINE fOR THEPUBLICATION Of OPINION

POLL AND SURVEY RESULTS

3.1. Introduction1. Pubic opiio research the stuof peopes attitues a beiefs abehaviours about poitica, socia aother issues forms a part of the totamarket a socia research e. It issubject to exact the same profes-

sioa a ethica requiremets asother forms of surve research. Theserequiremets are set out i the ICC/ESOMAR Iteratioa Coe o Marketa Socia Research.

2. However, pubic opiio researchofte cocers a especia sesitivearea. It eas with issues which arouse

greater pubic iterest a emotiotha o most market research projects.I aitio, its igs are much morewie pubishe a ebate, a masometimes be presete i a provoca-tive or eve teetious wa. ESOMARhas therefore set out specic recom-meatios about the pubicatio ofsuch research.

3. Opiio pos a surves have avauabe roe to pa i preset-asociet. Because the ata from posa surves have far-reachig impica-tios, it is importat that the geerapubic, poiticias, the meia a other

itereste groups shou, throughresearch, have access to accurate a

ubiase measures of pubic attitues,itetios a behaviours. We recog-ise cocers regarig the effectsof such po ata o votig or otherbehaviour. However, the aterative isthat the pubic wou be expose oto uscietic a probab iaccurateassertios about the situatio, i macases presete b iiviuas or

orgaisatios who take a extremepartisa or ieoogica approach to pre-setig the facts. The objective of thisGuieie is to reuce the risk of thepubic beig mise b research whichis iaequate or ba presete.

4. Recommeatios i this Guieieare base o the previous ESOMAR

Coe for the Pubicatio of OpiioPos. This was examie b thePariametar Assemb of the Couciof Europe which the recommeethe wiesprea appicatio of the Coeto gover the pubicatio of pos. TheCoe has sice bee combie withupate guieie avice.

5. The vaiit a vaue of pubicopiio surves epe o three maicosieratios:

(i) the ature of the research tech-iques use a the efciec withwhich the are appie,

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HOW TO PUBlISH OPInIOn POll And SURVEy RESUlTS

(ii) the hoest a objectivit of theresearcher carrig out the stu,

(iii) the wa that the igs are pre-sete a the uses to which the areput.

This sectio of the Guie cocetratesprimari o the seco a thir ofthese issues. Specic guiace otechiques a the couct of pre-eec-

tio pos a exit pos is give i thefoowig two sectios 4 a 5.

6. Major misuerstaigs ca arisewhe opiio po or surve -igs are pubishe a ebate. It isureaistic a ureasoabe to expectthe meia to quote the fu techicabackgrou of a surve whe preset-

ig its igs: the have imitatios ofspace a must aso ho the iterestof their auiece. However, there iscertai basic iformatio which mustbe provie if that auiece is to havethe opportuit of jugig for itsefthe eviece presete a eci-ig whether or ot it agrees with acocusios raw from the research.

This Guieie is primari cocerewith trig to esure that the pubic hasreasoabe access to this ke iforma-tio about the surve, a that pub-ishe reports of the igs are otmiseaig. The Guieie tries to strikea reaistic baace betwee what wou

be theoretica esirabe a what ispracticabe.

7. A reputabe research orgaisatiosapp the appropriate scietic methosa operate with professioa objec-tivit. I oig so the coform to theICC/ESOMAR Iteratioa Coe oMarket a Socia Research. There isaso geera agreemet amog themo the pricipes which shou uer-

ie the pubicatio of research resuts.However, orma professioa practicema var betwee coutries a icertai coutries aitioa iformatioto that specie i this Coe wi asocustomari be provie as part of thestaar ke materia.

Research orgaisatios have a particu-

ar resposibiit i the e ofpubic opiio pos, to make sure thatboth the ciet a the pubic have areasoabe uerstaig of the speciaprobems a imitatios ivove imeasurig attitues a beiefs asistict from behaviour. Such researchfrequet eas with compex a se-sitive issues about which respoets

have varig egrees of kowege aiterest, a where their views maofte be haf-forme, cofuse aicosistet. High professioa itegrita ski is essetia if the researchitsef is to be ubiase a meaigfu,a if the igs are to be presete

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a iterprete cear a accurate.It is importat aso that the research

buget avaiabe is sufciet to carrout a vai stu. ESOMAR a WAPORfu recogise that such cosieratiosare vita if pubic opiio pos are tomerit pubic coece a support.

8. If as a resut of past experiece, aresearcher has reaso to beieve thata particuar ciet wi ot fair preset

opiio po resuts i the pubisheversio of the igs, the researcherhas a resposibiit to stop carrig outpos for pubicatio b that ciet.

9. Fia, oe particuar tpe of workwhich ca be cofuse with a opiiosurve is a cosutatio exercise orstraw po. I this tpe of stu peope

rep to questios i the same wa asi a sampe surve, but the iiviuaswho aswer the questios seect them-seves rather tha beig chose as partof a scietic sampe to represet aparticuar uiverse or popuatio. It isextreme importat that the resuts ofthis tpe of work, which ca provieisight a egage the pubic i the

emocratic process, are ever reportei a wa which cou ea to it beigcofuse with a represetative surveof opiio.

3.2. Scope1. This Guieie must be rea i

cojuctio with other ESOMAR coes,guieies a pricipes avaiabe atwww.esomar.org

2. Market, socia a opiio researchivove the gatherig a furtherprocessig of persoa ata, which isreguate b aw i ma coutries. Iaitio, certai coutries have aws

reguatig the pubicatio of pre-eec-tio opiio po resuts. This Guieieoes ot provie a escriptio of theegisatio i force arou the wor,a caot repace the avice of egaexperts a sef-reguator boies.Rather it sets miimum staars ofethica couct to be foowe b mar-ket research professioas a is to be

appie agaist the backgrou of astricter staars that ma be requirei a specic coutr.

3.3. Reuirements o the ICC/ESOMAR International Code

3.3.1. General reuirements1. A researchers who couct pubic

opiio pos a surves mustcoform to the ICC/ESOMAR Iter-atioa Coe. Particuar attetio israw to the requiremets of Artice1 (cocerig the cear separatioof research from oresearch activi-ties), Artice 3b (cocerig protectig

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respoets from harm or averseeffects as a resut of participatig i

a surve), Artice 7 (cocerig ataprotectio a privac) a Artice 11(cocerig iterpretatio, reportiga pubicatio of resuts).

2. It is importat to istiguish betweethe requiremets which app to thereportig of pubic opiio po resutsb a researcher to the origia ciet,

a those which app to the subse-quet pubishig of a po igs bthat ciet to a wier auiece. The rstof these situatios is arge covereb Artice 11 of the Iteratioa Coewhich species reportig requiremetsi etai. This Guieie is iteeto carif certai aitioa require-mets which arise i coectio with

the wier pubicatio of the igs,a therefore appies especia to theseco situatio.

3.3.2. Specic reuirements orpublished public opinion surveys1. This sectio covers requiremets fora pubishe pubic opiio surves,Sectio 4 covers specic a more

etaie requiremets for surves ofvotig itetio.

2. Whe pubic opiio surve igsare pubishe i prit meia the mustawas be accompaie b a cearstatemet of:

(a) the name o the research organi-sation carrig out the surve;

(b) the universe effective represet-e (i.e. who was iterviewe);(c) the achieved sample size a itsgeographica coverage;(d) the dates o eldwor;(e) the sampling method use (ai the case of fu raom probabiitsampes the respose rate achieve);() the method by which the inor-

mation was collected (face-to-face,teephoe iterview, iteret pae etc.);(g) whether weighting was use toajust the resuts a the uiverseuse for the weights(h) the reevat uestions ased. Iorer to avoi possibe ambiguit theactua worig of the questio shoube give uess this is a staar ques-

tio area famiiar to the auieceor it is give i a previous pubishereport to which referece is mae.

3. Achieved sample size is theumber of iterviews actua reporte.Geographical coverage shou statewhich broa regios of the coutr(atioa or other such as urba areas

o or a specic geographica area)were represete. Aitioa theumber of sampig ocatios useshou be give as a iicatio of theaequac of the sampe esig. I re-ferrig to the umber of ocatios theobjective is to provie a reaistic picture

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of the extet to which the sampe iswie istribute geographica. The

best terms to use wou var b cou-tr for exampe dpartemetsmight be best i Frace, PariametarCostituecies i the U.K.

4. It is importat for the reaer to begive some geera iicatio of thesampling method use sice this mai certai cases have ver strog impi-

catios for the ike represetativeessof the sampe. A pubishe report ca-ot ecessari provie a the reevatata for a techica assessmet; buteve a imite referece ca be hepfu.I the case of probabiit sampig, themai objective is to ietif those stu-ies where a uusua ow resposerate has bee achieve, for whatever

reasos. Athough it is preferabewherever possibe to quote the actuarespose rate, the mai requiremetis therefore to iicate if the resposerate is beow that regare i theprofessio as orma for that tpe ofstu (this is a matter for experieceprofessioa jugemet).

5. It is aso importat to iicatewhether the resuts quote have beeajuste b weighting proceuresor other statistica methos a it isrecommee that the raw ata ismae avaiabe wherever the igsreporte iffer substatia from

the raw ata coecte i the e. (Thisrecommeatio is especia reevat

i the case of non-standard weight-igs e.g. weightig appie to correctfor isproportioate sampig, ikeover-represetig particuar competi-tive states or costituecies to improveefciec, uer-represetig specicethic or reigious groups or to correctfor poor coverage of the popuatiowhe usig oie or teephoe iter-

viewig).

6. The guiig pricipe whe eciigwhich questio worigs are reevatto pubish shou be the eimiatio ofambiguit a misuerstaig. Thisis particuar importat where theactua worig of the questio is criticato the iterpretatio of the igs,

a where the reporte aswers cabe affecte b the precise form of thequestio or its cotext especia opoitica or socia sesitive issues(for exampe, attitues towars abor-tio). The escriptio shou thereforehep the reaer uersta exactwhat was aske. I some cases thiswi be sufciet cear from the text

itsef a the actua aswers reporte,but whe i oubt the questio woriguse shou be reporte. Certaiwhere tabuar ata are give, the fuquestio worig must be icue.Experiece shows that it is i practiceofte possibe to icue the questios

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without overoaig the pubishereport. Where the compa is abe to

pubish iformatio o its website, thefu questio shou be mae avaiabe,together with, as a miimum, theaswers for the weighte sampe itota. These aswers shou icuedot kow a o-respose

7. A recommeatios for a staarpubicatio format i prit must take

accout of the ifferet stes, aouts,etc. of wie varig tpes of pubica-tio. Oe exampe of a suitabe form ofworig wou be:

This surve was carrie out b ABCResearch, o behaf of news Ic.,usig a atioa quota sampe of1111 auts of votig age persoa

iterviewe i 102 ocatios betwee1

st-5

thMarch 2008.

Aother aterative is to use a atabox of the ki:

Surve carrie out b XyZ Research,o behaf of news Ic. natioasurve of 1234 auts age 18 a

above, iterviewe b teephoebetwee 25th-28th Februar 2008usig raom igit iaig a aquota sampe.

A further exampe is:

A atioa oie surve of 2222auts iterviewe oie o 5thMarch 2008 b XyZ research aweighte to represet atioa votigshares. Fu etais of surve avaiabeat www.xzresearch.

8. There are certai specic situatiosi which it is cear ifcut to foow a

the recommeatios iste:

(i) where the surve reporte o isvery etensive and comple awhere the meia report ca thereforeprovie o a reative brief overviewof the tota surve

(ii) where a artice summarises the

resuts of a umber of surves, wheagai it wou be too compicate togive a the ke iformatio for each ofthe surves referre to.

Aso, where a give surve is reporteo seria (for exampe i the courseof severa cosecutive issues of aewspaper) it might be uecessar to

repeat a the techica etais i everissue.

These situatios are exceptios. Mostpubishe reports o pubic opiiopos refer to much more imite stuiestha these. Eve i the more compex

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cases it shou frequet be possibeto give the ke iformatio require.

I a cases where the ke iforma-tio caot be fu provie, the basicpricipe of fair a iformative report-ig must be foowe, and it shouldbe made clear how and where theserious enuirer can obtain ullerdetails. The avet of the iteretmakes it possibe to pubish a cosi-erabe amout of iformatio about a

surve, icuig etais of sampig,weightig a questioaire whichmight be ifcut to provie i the origi-a pubicatio or broacast. ESOMARrecommes that the surve compapubishes fu etais of a pubic poso a website a that the websitesaress is give to the pubic b themeia, so that peope ca check etais

if the wish to.

9. I the case of broacast meia itma ot awas be possibe to giveiformatio o a these poits. Asa miimum, poits (a) through (f) iparagraph 2 above must be covere ia broacast referece to the igsof a pubic opiio po, preferab i

visua (writte) form where practica.Some research orgaisatios curretarrage with their ciet to provie apress reease at the same time as thebroacast report o a surve. Such apress reease ca more easi icuesome ki of fact sheet coverig a the

basic pieces of iformatio referre toi paragraph 2 above. The pubicatio

of this tpe of iformatio o the age-cies or broacasters website is aso awa of makig fuer etai avaiabe.

10.The percentages o respondentswho give dont now answers (ai the case of votig-itetio stuies,o those who say they will not vote)must awas be give where the are

ike to affect the iterpretatio of theigs sigicat. Whe comparigthe igs from ifferet surves,a chages (other tha mior oes)i these percetages must aso beiicate. There are ma occasios iwhich the iterpretatio of particuarigs wi be quite ifferet if the eveof ot kow aswers is 5% or 50%.

I the case of votig-itetio stuiesthe same cosieratio aso appies towi ot vote aswers. A researchermust app their experiece a profes-sioa jugemet i eciig whe suchsituatios arise. It ma ot be ecessarto icue a the ot kow percet-ages i a tabes give, athoughwhere this is possibe it is frequet

the best wa of eaig with the issue.It ma be quite sufciet, for exampe,to make a geera commet such as:the proportio of ot kows wasever higher tha 5% - or to commetspecica o those istaces wherethe proportio was much higher.

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11. Whatever iformatio ma be givei the pubishe report of the surve,

the pubisher a/or the researchorgaisatio ivove must be prepareo request to supp the iformatioescribe i paragraph 2 of this Guie-ie o the surve metho, as requireb Artice 11 of the ICC/ESOMAR Coe.Where the questios forme part of amore extesive or omibus surve,this must be mae cear to a equir-

er, icuig a geera iicatio of thepacemet of the questios i the argerquestioaire. There is o obigatiouer the Coe for further iformatiobeo this to be suppie athoughorgaisatios wi orma be prepareto iscuss their research methos imore etai with boa e equirers.

3.3.3. Arrangements between theResearch Organisation and its Client1. I orer to esure that the require-mets of the ICC/ESOMAR Coe arefoowe, a to avoi possibe misu-erstaigs, the research orgaisatiomust make cear i avace to itsciet:

(i) that the research orgaisatio itsefis bou b the requiremets of thegeera Iteratioa Coe.

(ii) that subsequet wier pubicatioof the research igs shou be iaccorace with this guieie.

It is therefore the resposibiit ofthe research orgaisatio to raw its

ciets attetio to this Guieie oPubicatio of Resuts a to use itsbest eeavours to persuae the cietto foow the Coes requiremets.

2.The research organisation andthe client each have a responsibil-ity in the public interest to ensurethat the published report on a public

opinion poll does not misrepre-sent or distort the survey data. Forexampe, miseaig commets baseo o-sigicat iffereces must beavoie. Specia care must be take toesure that a graphs or charts useo ot cove a miseaig impres-sio of the curret surves resuts orof tres over time. It is aso importat

that the reaer or isteer shou beabe to cear istiguish betwee thesurve igs as such a a eito-ria or other commets base upothese igs. Wherever feasibe, theresearch orgaisatio must approve iavace the exact form a cotet ofpubicatio as require i Artice 11b ofthe ICC/ESOMAR Coe.

3. I preparig materia for pubicatio,jouraists a others coecte withthe meia themseves orma foowtheir ow professioa coes of prac-tice a ethics. The preset Guieieis ot itee i a wa to substitute

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these but rather to support them. (Ithis cotext, pubishe report covers

o-prit as we as prit meia.)

Artice 11a of the Coe emphasises theimportace of istiguishig, as muchas possibe, the resuts that emergeirect from the questios aske, aa commetar/iterpretatio baseo these resuts. Athough the iviigie is ot awas a simpe oe to

ee, i most cases the istictiobetwee fact a commet is ipractice a workabe oe.

Artice 11 of the Coe requires thatthe research istitute must reserve theright to pubish the tota stu a ot

just the techica specicatios i theevet of:

a shortee versio of the pubicatioistortig the aasis of the resuts a uforesee a abrige versioof the pubicatio a pubicatio which oes ot coformto the prior agreemets

4. The research orgaisatio caot

orma be he resposibe for asubsequet use mae of pubic opiiopo resuts b peope other tha theorigia ciet. It shou howeverbe rea to immeiate issue suchcommets or iformatio as ma beecessar to correct a cases of

misreportig or misuse of resuts whethese are brought to its attetio.

5. I the evet that a ciet reeases atafrom a surve which was ot origiaitee for pubicatio, this Guieiewi app to it as if it ha origia beecommissioe for pubicatio.

6.ESOMAR strog avises theuse of cotracts betwee research

orgaisatios a their ciets toesure aherece to the ICC/ESOMARCoe (see ESOMAR Guideline on themutual rights and responsibilities ofresearchers and clients). For exampe,some cotracts stipuate that theagec has the right to examie aapprove a cop of the pubicatio baseo its research. Where the agec

reserves the copright of the igsthis ca aso hep to reuce some ofthe probems ivove i miseaigsecoar reportig of the igs bother peope. I aitio to a otherrequiremets it is suggeste that sucha cotract shou cover:

caricatio of the poit that the

cotract bis both the surve sposora the meia ivove, where theseare ifferet parties some measure of cotro b theresearch orgaisatio over the pub-ishe form of the resuts icuiggures a graphs

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Certai cotracts aso provie that ifresearch igs commissioe for

pubicatio are ot i fact pubishe,such igs ca subsequet (aftera specie perio of time) be reeaseb the research orgaisatio itsef; oraterative the orgaisatio is free torepeat the surve for aother ciet. Itis aso icreasig commo practicei certai coutries for ata tapes frompubic opiio surves to be oge

with appropriate archives for subse-quet secoar research b acaemicresearchers a others. Such stepsca hep to reuce the ager that posma be thought sometimes to be usei a maipuative wa b ess scrupu-ous ciets.

7. A coe of practice i this area has

obvious imitatios, i that researchersca exercise o restricte cotroover how their resuts are presetei the meia, a sti ess iueceover a commets a iterpretatios(sometimes misguie a tee-tious) base o the igs. A coetherefore epes o spreaig the useof best practice a iuecig meia

ciets to avoi miseaig presetatioof surve resuts. ESOMAR expects itsmembers to foow this Guieie withthis objective rm i mi.

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eave the poig statio) has becomemuch more commo. Such pos are

eve more ike to be see as preic-tio pos a the aasis of theirresuts is ofte use to expai wh theeectio came out the wa it i. Theiraccurac is equa importat to thepubic image of market research.

5. Pre-eectio pos are a ver pubictest of sampig theor a surve

research i actio. Pos have a gootrack recor for accurac but the occa-sioa po which appears to be wroggets extesive meia coverage. Poswrog is ews a awas gets majorcoverage. Pos accurate is a heaiethat is seom writte. ESOMAR hopesthat these guieies wi cotribute tothe techica eucatio of jouraists

resposibe for po reportig. However,specia care must sti be take b po-ig orgaisatios to miimise the riskof gettig it wrog.

4.2. The Guidelines

4.2.1. Timing o eldworAoe attemptig to prepare a critica

case about pos wou certai eciethat the ate of pubicatio of a po is ake piece of iformatio. Regaress ofwhe the iterviewig took pace, thepubicatio ate is the importat fact i

jugig the cotributio of the po tothe eectora process.

Poig orgaisatios must be respo-sibe for esurig that pos pubishe

i the ver ate stages of a eectioare ike to be a fair represetatio ofpubic opiio as cose as possibe tothe e of the campaig.

Guideline Poig compaies shou trto reuce the risk of gettig it wrogb miimisig the time eapse be-twee ework a pubicatio. A po

is more ike to achieve a goo repre-setative sampe if the ework perioicues some time i the eveiga urig week-es whe potetiaeectors i fu-time empomet areavaiabe for iterview.

4.2.2. Sample sizeThe measuremet of the share of the

vote for a part is subject to the ormastatistica coece imits for sampesurves. Two factors affect the size ofthe coece imit of a part share.The rst is the absoute eve of supportfor a part. The coser this gets to 50%,the wier wi be the coece imitarou the share estimate. The secois the size of the sampe iterviewe i

orer to prouce the estimate. I mostpre-eectio pos the size of the sampeis the more importat factor.

I coutries with a simpe proportioarepresetatio sstem, the pre-eectiopo measuremet of the share of the

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vote to each part is a fair iicator ofthe eectio outcome. I other eectora

sstems this ma ot be the case.However, the best that the pos cao is estimate the share of the voteto each part at a atioa eve. Theke statistic reporte i the meia isthe gap i share of vote betwee theeaig parties, a the measuremetof the gap has much arger coeceimits tha those for a iiviua

parts share.

Poig orgaisatios frequet repre-set the margi of error of their posas 3 percetage poits. This ma beaccurate for a sige part but is rareaccurate for the ke meia gure thegap betwee eaig parties. A po thatprouces a 95% coece imit of 3

percetage poits o the share for oeof the eaig parties, cou proucea equivaet coece imit of 5.7percetage poits o the gap betweethe two eaig parties.

Guideline Pre-eectio pos shouot have a sampe of fewer tha 1,000respoets. I circumstaces where

the gap betwee eaig parties isexpecte to be sma, the sampe sizeshou be arger a sampes of 1,500to 2,000 shou be use.

4.2.3. Sample distribution

I Europea coutries there are two

mai approaches to seectig sampesfor face-to-face iterviews.

Method 1Seect sampig poits i proportio tothe umber of eectors. The, i eachseecte area take a equa umberof iterviews. For a give sampesize, the rue for sampes usig this

methooog shou be to maimisethe umber of sampig poits aminimise the umber of iterviewscoucte at a oe sampig poit.This impies miimisig the umberof iterviews coucte b a sigeiterviewer.

Guideline There is empirica eviece

that if the umber of iterviews persampig poit excees 20, the theiuece of icrease iterviewervariatio outweighs icrease sampesize.

Method 2Seect sampig poits with equaprobabiit but the to take a ifferet

umber of iterviews i each areaproportioa to the size of the eectoratei the area.

Guideline Pos usig this methoshou sti aim to miimise the umberof iterviews coucte b a sige

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iterviewer a stick to the maximumof 20.

Guideline For both methos, thesampe esig shou give prioritto maximisig the umber ofsampig poits a miimisig theumber of iterviews coucte beach iterviewer.

4.2.4. Telephone interviewing

I pricipe teephoe surves offerhigh-quait, ucustere, raom sam-pes with fast competio of ework.I coutries with imite teephoeowership or avaiabiit, owership isfrequet correate with votig ite-tio, i.e. those who caot be cotacteb phoe are more ike to support oerather tha aother of the parties i the

eectio. This ma aso be the case forthose teephoe owers who are otiste i the teephoe irector, whichis wh raom igit iaig is to bepreferre, or those whose teephoesma ot be part of the sampig frame(e.g. mobie/ce phoe househos).

Guideline If teephoe owership is

ot high a/or ike to prouce aurepresetative sampe, this methoof iterview shou ot be use forpre-eectio pos, or shou be suppe-mete with ata coecte usigaother moe of iterviewig. If tee-phoe sampes are use for pos, the

poig orgaisatio must use methosto correct for a uer-represetatio

of supporters of particuar poiticaparties. Simpe emographic proeajustmets ma ot be aequate.

4.2.5. Online PollsIteret surves are icreasig beiguse for opiio pos. As with teephoesurves, its viabiit as a metho ofcarrig out pre-eectio pos epes

to a arge extet o the accessibiit ofa represetative sampe via the iteret.Give the sprea of the iteret, there area umber of coutries where this ca beoe, if care is take to icue peopewho o ot have the possibiit to use theIteret at home, but coect to the iter-et at work or i some other pace. TheESOMAR Guideline on Research Using the

Internetcotais aitioa guiace orequiremets icuig oie sampiga the use of access paes.

Guideline This metho shou ot beuse for pre-eectio poig withouteviece that a represetative sampeof eectors ca be cotacte via theiteret. As with teephoe surves,

the poig orgaisatio must correctfor a uerrepresetatio. Simpeemographic proe ajustmets wigeera ot be aequate. The orgai-satio shou provie iformatio aboutsampe coverage a the weightigvariabes use to correct the ata.

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4.2.6. Weighting

I orer to couct fast surves with

arge sampes, most pre-eectio opi-io pos base o face-to-face iter-views wi use quota sampig methos.The appicatio of simpe emographicweights to esure a accurate sampebaace is staar goo practice. Ifsome parts of the eectorate have beeeiberate over-sampe, weightigshou be use to re-estabish the

correct baace (see sectio 4.2.11 foraitioa iformatio).

Guideline The emographic proe ofpre-eectio pos shou be checkefor represetativeess a, if eces-sar, weightig shou be appie tocorrect represet the eectorate.Poig compaies shou esure that

the popuatio proe use is that ofeectors eigibe to vote rather tha themore orma a auts proe use icommercia market research.

4.2.7. AdjustmentsI some circumstaces poig orgai-satios ma fee that the resut of theirpre-eectio po is ot a accurate

guie to the ike outcome. The mostobvious exampe is where the votigitetio of those with a high ikeihooof castig their vote is ifferet fromthe tota sampe.

I some coutries it is commo tomeasure sef-reporte votig at the

previous eectio a use this to ajustthe votig estimate from the curretsurve. I demark a Frace this isa importat quait improvig proce-ure. However, this approach oes otwork as we i other coutries.

Experiece has show that votig ite-tio measuremets i some coutries

ee ajustmets i orer to provie areiabe guie to pubic opiio. I thesecoutries the weightig or ajustmetstrateg of the poig orgaisatioma be coetia to that compa forcompetitive reasos. I such circum-staces, where the ajustmet is maevia a stabe a sstematic proceure,the poig compa ma wish to with-

ho fu etais of its metho.

Guideline Poig orgaisatios shouot make a ajustmets to the simpepo resut which caot be ocumetea ee i avace of seeig theresuts. A ajustmets must becapabe of beig repeate a justi-e. It is goo practice for pre-eectio

pos to measure ke variabes suchas ikeihoo to vote a to cosierwhether the simpe po resut shoube ajuste. Where ajustmets to theuweighte po igs are mae, thisshou be ote i the pubicatio ofthe po igs.

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4.2.8. Survey content

Pre-eectio opiio pos wi have

greater poitica a socia vaue ifthe o ot coe themseves oto measurig votig itetio butaso expore the reasos for partchoice a opiios o importatcampaig issues.

Guideline Wherever possibe, pre-eec-tio pos shou measure reasos

for part choice or attitues o issuesor other aspects of the campaig.

4.2.9. Time seriesPoig orgaisatios use ifferetmethooogica esigs that maistiguish oe rm from aother. Themeaig of a a pre-eectio po isfar easier to etermie if it is the atest

of a series of pos coucte b thesame orgaisatio urig the campaig.

Guideline The vaiit of the methosuse b a orgaisatio ca be jugebetter if the prouce a series of votigitetio estimates urig the cam-paig. A obvious biases wi becomeapparet b compariso with the pub-

ishe pos of other orgaisatios.

4.2.10. Consistent designThe abiit to compare a a pre-eec-tio po with previous pos fromthe same orgaisatio is weakee ifthe orgaisatio chages ke aspects

of its methooog for the a po. Itcou be argue that there is a beet if

poig orgaisatios improve the meth-ooogica quait of the esig the usefor a pos. However, this reucesthe comparabiit of a series of posfrom the same poig orgaizatio, asuggests that some campaig pos cabe of poorer quait. However, if posare to make a vai cotributio to i-formig the poitica process, the must

all be of high quait. A two-tier quaitpoic uermies the vaue of pos.

Guideline Poig orgaisatios shouattempt to keep ke eemets ofmethooog cosistet throughout theeectio campaig. This particuarappies to sampig metho, questioworig a the positioig of votig

itetio questios. It oes ot appto sampe size. Where pos are baseo eigibe (registere) voters ear ithe campaig a subsequet moveto sampes of ike voters ate i thecampaig, this ajustmet shou becear ote a istiguishe.

4.2.11. Indicator variables

It is possibe to iterview a sampe rep-resetative as far as age, sex a sociagrae are cocere, but sti have apoitica urepresetative sampe.For exampe, sectio 4.2.1 refers to theissue of represetig workig eectorsb esurig that the ework perio

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icues some eveig a weekeiterviewig.

It is goo practice i a pre-eectio poto icue the coectio of iformatiowhich is correate with votig behav-iour but which is ot part of the quotacotro. The item shou have a kowistributio from aterative sources.Variabes such as reigio or aguagespoke ma be possibe iicator vari-

abes if the have ot bee use i theesig of the surve quota cotros.

Guideline Poig compaies shoube ecourage to eveop a iicatorvariabe for sampe weightig purpos-es. I the perio betwee eectios it ispossibe to caibrate the eectora impi-catio of a over or uer represeta-

tio of the iicator variabe.

4.2.12. Unusual poll resultsProbabiit theor suggests that oepo i twet ma give resuts outsiethe orma 95% coece imits. Apoig orgaisatio ma therefore itsef with a pre-eectio po that is outof ie with a the campaig eviece

avaiabe up to that poit. Usua therewi be itte time avaiabe betwee get-tig the a resut a writig the copfor pubicatio.

Guideline It is uacceptabe tosuppress a pre-eectio po that ooks

out of ie with earier pos uess avai techica reaso wh the po is

wrog has bee estabishe. It is asouacceptabe to make a gut feeigajustmet. The po shou bepubishe with appropriate warigabout the uusua po resut. The osare 20:1 i favour of the po beig cor-rect a voters o chage their miseve i the poig booth.

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5. GUIDELINE ONCONDUCTING ExIT POLLS AND

ELECTION RESULT fORECASTS

5.1. IntroductionA icreasig popuar compoet ofthe teevisio coverage of eectioights is the exit po. These are otbase o atioa represetativesampes of voters aske their votigitetio. Exit pos are pos of voters,

iterviewe ater the have vote, ano later tha Eectio da. The maicue the iterviewig before Eectioda of posta, absetee a other earvoters. I some coutries Eectio dapos caot be coucte at the poigpace, but i most cases, iterviewigtakes pace at the poig ocatio.

Exit pos ca serve three ifferetfuctios that are ot mutua excusive:

preictig eectio resuts escribig patters of voter supportfor parties, caiates, a issues supportig extesive acaemicresearch efforts

The mai ifferece betwee thesema be the spee with which the re-suts are formuate a issemiate.

Exit pos use for projectios shoube reporte as soo as is practica afterthe pos cose. A ea i issemi-

atig the resuts wi ievitab raisequestios about the egitimac of the

effort, especia with regar to estimat-ig the outcome of the eectio. Ifaasis is the o purpose of the exitpo, prompt reease is ess importat.

I some coutries, eectio awsprohibit the pubicatio of exit poata uti after the pos have cose.WAPOR a ESOMAR oppose regua-

tio of the couct a reportig ofpos i pricipe. nevertheess, state-mets about the outcome of a eectiobase o exit pos must not be pub-ishe before a the pos i the cotesthave cose. I atioa eectios, thismeas pos reatig to eectio resutsfor eectios i smaer votig uits cabe reporte whe a the poig paces

have cose i those ocatios, rathertha waitig uti a poig pacesuse for votig that a have cose.descriptive iformatio other tha vot-ig behaviour ma be pubishe beforethe pos have cose, uess this isprohibite b oca egisatio or coesof practice.

5.2. Specic reuirementsor eit pollsSurve researchers i geera athose couctig exit pos i particuaree to foow certai broa pricipesi couctig their research:

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1. Exit pos coucte for pubiccosumptio must be impartia a

o partisa. Exit pos are esigeto coect ata from voters a reportiformatio o eectora outcomes.The are ot toos for partisa avocac.

2. Methos must be trasparet, pubic,a we-ocumete. These goas cabe achieve b pubic escribig themethos prior to couctig the exit

po a b aherig to the staarsof miima iscosure eieate i thisGuieie. It is aso recommee thatwhe the exit po is use for aasis,the ata set (without iiviua ieti-ers) aog with appropriate surveocumetatio be eposite i pubicarchives a/or o websites for geeraaccess.

3. Researchers must aopt stuesigs for their exit pos that are suit-abe for proucig accurate a reiaberesuts a that foow specic proce-ura a techica staars stipuatei this ocumet.

4. Whe reportig resuts from exit

pos, researchers must observe the re-quiremets for pubicatio of surves ithe ICC/ESOMAR Coe a be carefuto keep their iterpretatios a state-mets fu cosistet with the ata.Specuatio a commetar shouot be abee as ata-base report-

ig. limitatios a weakesses i theesig of a exit po, its executio, a

the resuts must be ote i a reportsa aases. Resuts must be reeaseto the pubic a other iteresteparties through the geera meia asimutaeous mae accessibe to a.

5. The ietit of respoets i exitpos must be protecte. Ietifigiformatio (e.g. ame, aress, or

other Ids) must ot be maitaie withthe voter-eve recors, a the ataset shou ot aow euctive isco-sure of respoets ietities. To imitthe chaces of euctive iscosure,sma-area geographic etais such asthe specic poig pace i which voteswere cast must ot be reveae.

6. Po methos use must be thosegeera accepte as goo survepractice a must be iscose iavace of the couct of the exitpo, as we as with a projectio oraasis or subsequet pubic reeaseof the ataset.

5.2.1. Items or minimal disclosure

1. These items must be iscose witha exit po report or whe a projec-tio is mae. Goo practice wou be toiscose as much of the methooogi avace as possibe, particuarthose items in italics, which must beiscose beore Eectio da.

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Sponsor of the exit pollName of the polling company or

principal researcher; prior experience(if any) in exit polling; and whetherthe data collector has any businessor personal ties to political parties,candidates, political organizations orgovernmental bodies.Name of the organization responsible

for analysis and projections, if different.Number of interviews

Number of polling stations orsampling points if this is not wherethe sampling takes placeSampling frameGeographic dispersion and coverageHow sampling points are selectedWhere and how interviews areconducted: at polling places,in person at homes, by phone, by

self-administered questionnaire etc.Any legal limits on data collectionthat might affect polling accuracy (e.g.minimum distance of interviewers

from the polling place)Time of a of iterviewigWhether iterviewers are part ofa permaet e staff or hire forthe occasio

How respondent anonymity isguaranteed (paper questionnaires, etc.)The iterview scheue orquestioaire a istructiosWhich resuts are base o partsof the sampe, rather tha thewhoe sampe

A escriptio of the precisio ofthe igs, icuig estimates

of sampig errorMoitorig a vaiatioproceures (if a)Weightig proceuresRespose rates (usig oe ofthe eitios i the AAPOR/WAPOR Staar deitios:Fia dispositios of Case Coes aOutcome Rates for Surves) a

item o-respose o vote questios.A kow o-respose biasGeera escriptio of how estimatesare mae a the kis of variabesthat are beig use, a whetherajustmets for o-respose havebee maeKow esig effects

2. Poitica parties ma sometimesmake caims about private ata. Thesecaims aso require ocumetatio. Apubic statemet referrig to exit poresuts must abie b the iscosurepricipes a requiremets above.

3. Those couctig exit pos mustawas use geera accepte statisti-

ca methos. However, there are aumber of goo practices that appspecica to exit pos.

Exit pos tpica empo custerigi their sampe esigs. Because of thepossibiities that various groups might

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attempt to iuece voters a/or exitpo respoets, researchers are ot

expecte to iscose the actua sampepoits or ocatios.

Exit pos must coect iformatioacross the whoe of the poig a.Probabiit sampig (or fu cesus)for iterviews coucte at the poigpace is the o acceptabe seectiometho. Quotas are ot appropriate for

sampig at the poig pace.

A atioa exit po must represet theetire coutr, with 95% of the targetpopuatio icue i the sampigframe. If the sampig frame coversess tha 95% of the target popuatio,there must be a expaatio for thatecisio.

Researchers must keep i mi thereatioship betwee sma uits forwhich the votes are tabuate aca aso serve as custers for exit poiterviews. Oe wa to evauate a exitpo is to compare the actua eectioresuts with the estimates erivefrom the exit po iterviews for these

same uits. This compariso of smauit accurac, tpica at the precictor poig pace eve, is oe of thebest was to uersta the exit possuccess. But there are situatios wherethis wi ot be possibe, either becauseo tabuatios are reporte at the

smaest votig uit eve or becausethe sampig uits o ot coicie with

votig uits.

5.2.2. Election projection methodsand their disclosure1. Eectio projectios ca be mae iother was tha b iterviewig votersas the exit the poig pace. Whiemost projectios are base o iter-views with voters after the have vote

at a poig pace, other forecastigmoes ma icue:

iterviews i perso, b teephoe,or b other meas of commuicatiowith voters after or before havig casttheir votes couts of ofcia votes i a sampe ofprecicts, ofte kow as quick couts

a mix of methos

2. A projectio is a estimate that easto a cocusio about the outcome ofa eectio i a jurisictio such as aatio, a state or a istrict. This maoccur i two ifferet situatios:

If the wier is base o the popuar

vote for a ofce or a part, the aprojectio of the ivisio of that voteis a projectio of the outcome i the

jurisictio. If the wier is base o the vote imutipe jurisictios, such as eectioof a Pariamet where votes are cast i

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istricts or of a Presiet where votesare accumuate base o victories

wo i ma jurisictios, a cocusioabout which part has a purait ofseats i the ew Pariamet or whichpresietia caiate has a wiigumber of votes is a atioa projectio.

The projectio ee ot reach a co-cusio about each sub-jurisictio. Itee o reach a cocusio about the

jurisictio outcome.

The objective of a projectio is acocusio about a eectio for some

jurisictio. A sampe of that jurisic-tio must be aequate to reach aubiase cocusio with sufciet/appropriate coece i the estimate.A atioa projectio tpica requires

the coverage of the etire coutr, withat east 95% of the target popuatio ithe sampig frame.

There wi be times that a subset ofthe coutr wi be use (for exampe,o competitive istricts). But if thesampig frame is use that icuessomethig ess tha the etire votig

popuatio of a jurisictio, thethe researcher shou ee i aiscosure statemet what is a isot icue i the sampig frame.The researcher must aso pubish aratioae to justif the researchersabiit to make a ubiase cocusio

about the eectio outcome base upocoectig iformatio from a subset of

a jurisictios. Simiar rues to thosefor the provisio of basic iformatioapp. The foowig iformatio shoube mae avaiabe before eectio a:

Sposor of the exit po name of the poig compa orpricipa researcher; prior experiece(if a) i projectios; a whether

the ata coector has a busiessor persoa ties to poitica parties,caiates, poitica orgaizatios orgovermeta boies. name of the orgaizatio resposibefor aasis a projectios, if ifferet. Source of the ata use to make theprojectios (i.e. iterviews i perso, bteephoe, or b other meas of com-

muicatio with voters after or beforehavig cast their votes).

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ESOMAREurocenter 2

Barbara Strozzilaan 3841083 HN Amsterdam

The NetherlandsTel +31 20 664 2141

fa +31 20 664 2922E-mail [email protected]

www.esomar.org

Market research, which icuessocia a opiio research, is the

sstematic gatherig a iterpretatioof iformatio about iiviuas ororgaisatios usig the statistica aaatica methos a techiques of theappie socia scieces to gai isight orsupport ecisio makig.

The ietit of respoets wi ot bereveae to the user of the iformatiowithout expicit coset a o saesapproach wi be mae to them as airect resut of their havig provieiformatio.deitio of market research cotaie i the ICC/ESOMAR Iteratioa Coe

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ESOMAR is the wor orgaisatio for eabig betterresearch ito markets, cosumers a societies.

With 5000 members i over 100 coutries, ESOMARsaim is to promote the vaue of market a opiioresearch i iumiatig rea issues a brigig abouteffective ecisio-makig.

To faciitate this ogoig iaogue, ESOMAR creates

a maages a comprehesive programme ofiustr-specic a thematic evets, pubicatios acommuicatios, as we as active avocatig sef-reguatio a the worwie coe of practice.

Foue i 1947, the Wor Associatio for Pubic OpiioResearch (WAPOR, www.wapor.org) is eicate toavacig the scietic stu of pubic opiio.

Its members arou the wor work to maitai highstaars for coectig, aasig, a issemiatig

pubic opiio ata. Each ear, the orgaisatio hoscofereces a workshops ivovig acaemics,practitioers, jouraists, a poic-makers.

WAPOR sposors the mutiiscipiar research joura,the International Journal of Public Opinion Research.

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