vulnerability and impact assessment climate change
TRANSCRIPT
Vulnerability and ImpactAssessment – Climate
Change
Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar ReddyChief Executive Officer [CEO],
GEOECOLOGY ENERGY ORGANISATION [GEO]
http://e-geo.org
Climate Change & the Challenge of Poverty
Alleviation 26 - 28 July, 2012
Centre for Climate Change and Environment
Advisory DR. MCR HRD Institute Campus,
Hyderabad
26
Ju
ly 2
012
Present carbon cycle
SPEED OF EXCHANGE PROCESS
Very fast (less than 1 year)
Fast (1 to 10 years)
Slow (10 to 100 years)
Very slow (more than 100 years)
Storage and flux of carbon
(in billions of tones)
Human activity influence
Variation of the temperature on Earth
Temperature trends (1976 to 2000)
Precipitation trends (1900 to 2000)
Source : IPCC/SRESA2
5 degrees = What separates us from the last glacial era (-15 000 BC)
Models’ forecasts : +1,4 to +5,8 degrees by 2100.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATIONS
Visual impact of Climate Change
Impact of Climate Change on society
Climate change will cause heavier tropical cyclones.
…Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma…
Cost of extreme weather events
Less visual but with major impact
> Temperature increase> Sea level rise> More rain
Agriculture and food securityCrop yields, irrigation demands...
ForestComposition, health and productivity...
Water resourcesWater supply, water quality...
Coastal areas Erosion, inundation, cost of prevention...Species and natural areasBiodiversity, modification of ecosystems...Human healthInfectious diseases, human settlements...
Consequences of climate change:
VulnerabilityVulnerability to climate change is the risk of
adverse things happening Vulnerability is a function of three factors:
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
Exposure
Exposure is what is at risk from climate change, e.g.,
Population Resources Property
It is also the climate change that an affected system will face, e.g.,
Sea level Temperature Precipitation Extreme events
Sensitivity
Biophysical effect of climate change Change in crop yield,
runoff, energy demand It considers the
socioeconomic context, e.g., the agriculture system
Grain crops typically are sensitive
Manufacturing typically is much less sensitive
Adaptive Capacity
Capability to adapt Function of:
Wealth Technology Education Institutions Information Infrastructure “Social capital”
Having adaptive capacity does not mean it is used effectively
More exposure and sensitivity increase vulnerability
More adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability
An assessment of vulnerability should consider all three factors
Vulnerability is a Function of …
Adaptation“adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities”
(Third Assessment Report, Working Group II)
Includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate
Adaptation (continued)
Two types of adaptation
Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent
Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change
SL framework: Determinants of adaptive capacity
Livelihood resources
Examples
Human Knowledge, Skills
Social Women’s savings and loans groups, farmer- CBOs
Physical Irrigation infrastructure, seed and grain storage facilities
Natural Reliable water source, productive land
Financial Micro-insurance, diversified income sources
Policies, institutions and power structures
Capitals
PROSOPIS JULIFLORA - CAUSE AND USE
Climate change / variability
Groundwater use
Contribution of salts-Use of complex fertilizers-Surfacing of natural salts from deep inside the ground through groundwater
Decrease in rainfallHigh temperatures
Increase in intensity of cultivation
+
ALKALINE SOILS
SEMI-ARID ENVRIONMENT
Poor germination, Non-availability of soil mineralsDecrease in yield
Fallow lands
Suitable for growth of Prosopis Juliflora
-Energy Needs-Charcoal Making- Biochar- Wood for utility-Pods / leaves as livestock feed
AFPRO22Human / Social Natural / Environmental / Physical Economic / Political
SCENARIO 1
Policies/Structures Vulnerability Adaptability
Rural Poverty Livelihoods Diversification
Appropriate Skills Water Management
Agriculture Production Water Resources
Energy
Climate Change
Community Empowerment
Bio Diversity
“VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ENHANSING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE
CHANGE IN SEMI-ARID AREAS OF INDIA”
Vulnerability assessment tools CC Vulnerability assessment tools Software / assessment tools Cristal Other tools
Climate Changes in India
Increase in surface temperature by 0.4 degree C over the past century.
Warming trend along the west coast, in central India, the interior peninsula, and northeastern India.
Climate Changes in India
Cooling trend in northwest India and parts of South India.
Regional monsoon variations: increased monsoon seasonal rainfall along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and North-western India, decreased monsoon seasonal rainfall over eastern Madhya Pradesh, North-eastern India, and parts of Gujrat and Kerala.
Climate Changes in India
Observed trends of multi-decadal periods of more frequent droughts, followed by less severe droughts.
Studies have shown a rising trend in the frequency of heavy rain events and decrease in frequency of moderate events over central India from 1951 to 2000.
26
Climate Changes in India
Records of coastal tide gauges in the north Indian ocean for the last 40 years has revealed an estimated sea level rise between 1.06-1.75 mm per year.
The available monitoring data on Himalayan glaciers indicates recession of some glaciers. 27
Per-capita Carbon –dioxide emission (Metric Tons)
USA Europe Japan China Russia India World average
0
5
10
15
20
25
20.01
9.4 9.87
3.6
11.71
1.02
4.25
Impacts of Climate Changes
Water resources Agriculture and food production Health Forests Coastal areas Vulnerability to extreme events Bioenergy Livelihoods Environment Economy Ecology
29
National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC)
Protecting the poor and vulnerable sections of society through sustainable development sensitive to climate change
Achieving national growth objectives through a qualitative change in direction, ecological sustainability, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.
30
National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC)
Efficient and cost effective strategies for end use Demand side Management.
Technologies for adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions.
Promote sustainable development - Regulatory and voluntary mechanisms
31
Core of NAPCC - National Missions
National Solar Mission:The NAPCC aims to promote the development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses with the ultimate objective of making solar competitive with fossil-based energy options.
National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency: Current initiatives are expected to yield savings of 10,000 MW by 2012.
These National Missions are being institutionalized by the respective Ministries/ Departments.
Core of NAPCC - National Missions
National Mission on Sustainable Habitat: To promote energy efficiency as a core component of urban planning.
National Water Mission: With water scarcity projected to worsen as a result of climate change, the plan sets a goal of a 20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures.
Core of NAPCC - National Missions
National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem: The plan aims to conserve biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan region, where glaciers that are a major source of India’s water supply are projected to recede as a result of global warming.
National Mission for a “Green India”: Goals include the afforestation of 6 million hectares of degraded forest lands and expanding forest cover from 23% to 33% of India’s territory.
Core of NAPCC - National Missions
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture: The plan aims to support climate adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops, expansion of weather insurance mechanisms, and agricultural practices.
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change: To gain a better understanding of climate science, impacts and challenges, the plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund, improved climate modeling, and increased international collaboration. It also encourage private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies through venture capital funds.
Source: New Indian Express
Climate Change will put
additional stress in rural
areas
Rural Livlihoods - ResourcesThe livelihoods of the rural poor are directly
dependent on environmental resources.
Are vulnerable to weather and climate variability
land Water
Forests Energywater stress
increases
groundwater levels recede
Rural Poor Paying the most
Climate change will only exacerbate the vulnerabilities of the rural poor. As climate-sensitive, natural ecosystems deteriorate, subsistence will slip further out of reach.
India’s rural poor, who have least contributed to Climate Change, will pay some of the problem’s heaviest tolls.
In the life of a farmer climate Variability and Extreme events
are more important than climate change
Climate Change / Variability in Semi-arid regions
Precipitation is less than potential evapo-transpiration.
Low annual rainfall of 25 to 60 centimeters and having scrubby vegetation with short, coarse grasses; not completely arid.
Climate Change / Variability in Semi-arid regions
Climate Variability and extremes are an expected characteristic of semi-arid lands.
The people vulnerable to droughts, which trigger frequent subsistence crises
Increasing crop failures, dislocation, famine, poverty, increases stratification and the social inequities.
In Andhra Pradesh 2009 witness to• 50 years old drought • 100 years old flood
AFPRO44Human / Social Natural / Environmental / Physical Economic / Political
SCENARIO 1
Policies/Structures Vulnerability Adaptability
Rural Poverty Livelihoods Diversification
Appropriate Skills Water Management
Agriculture Production Water Resources
Energy
Climate Change
Community Empowerment
Bio Diversity
“VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ENHANSING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE
CHANGE IN SEMI-ARID AREAS OF INDIA”
GSBC PROJECT INTEGRATED APPROACH
Major challenges of Agriculture
Climate change - variability - extremes
Soil fertility Water management
Impact of hazardous
pesticides and nitrogen fertilizers
Burning of crop residue
Alkalinity of soils
Mahabubnagar District Rainfall Pattern
y = -4.6207x + 851.14
R2 = 0.1374
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Crop Water
Soil Climate
Energy Environment
FACILITATION RESEARCH
ACTIVITY
CAPACITYDEVELOPMENT
Field level interventions
CULTURAL
SPIRITUAL
BELIEFS
RITUAL
S
FESTIVALS
ALTARS
CREMATION
SOURCE
S (BIOMASS)
GOOD STOVES• T
LUDs
• Other stoves
CROP
RESIDUE
POULTRY LITTER
WASTE MANAGEMENT• S
ludge
PRACTICES
FOOD
PRESERVING FOOD
CLEANING
MEDICINE
MATTRESS
TOOTH POWDER
AIR QUALITY• CO
2 / CH4
WATER TREATM
ENT
AQUARIUM /
TERRARIUMS
BIOCHAR
BRICKS
BIOCHAR
URINALS
SOAK PITS
FILTERING MEDIA
INSECT REPELLE
NT
SOIL AMENDMENT
INCREASED PRODUCTION
SOIL TEMPERATURE REGULATED
MOISTURE RETENTION
WATER CONSERVATION
NITROGEN / PHOSPHOROUS
RETENTION
NURSERIESPESTICIDES
ADBSORBTION
SOIL MICROBES DENSITY
INCREASE
BIOCHAR COMPOST
EARTHWORMS INCREASE
TERMITES / ANTS
REPULSION
CARBON SEQUESTRATIO
N
ANIMAL
S
POULTRY
- CH4 REDUCTION
LIVESTOCK - URINE
AND DUN
G
FYM /
COMPOST
BIOMASS
BIOCHAR
ENERGY
BIOCHARCULTURE
Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy, GEOhttp://e-geo.org | http://biocharculture.com
SOIL
BIOCHAR
BIOCHAR COMPOST
AGRICUTURE
PADDY METHANE
EMISSIONS REDUCTION
PESTICIDE & COMPLEX
CHEMICALS AFFECTS
MITIGATION
EMMISIONS REDUCTION FROM FARM
YARD MANURES
AND COMPOSTS
CROP RESIDUE
MANAGEMENT
ANIMALS
APPLICATION IN ANIMAL PLACES TO TAP URINE, SANITATION
AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION
RUMINANT ANIMALS METHANE
EMISSIONS REDUCTION
AS FEED ADDITIVE
SOAKING IN WITH
ANIMALS URINE AND EXCRETA -
VALUE ADDITION
ENERGY
SOURCE FROM
EFFICIENT TLUD COOK
STOVES
AS BY PRODUCT
FROM GASIFIER STOVES,
BOILERS ETC
CHARCOAL PRODUCTIO
N FROM BIOMASS /
WASTE MANAGEME
NT
HABITAT
BIOCHAR BRICKS
BIOCHAR IN AQUARIUMS
BIOCHAR IN POULTRY FARMS
BIOCHAR IN FRIDGES,
MATTRESSES, ETC.
SANITATION
BIOCHAR URINALS
BIOCHAR TOILETS
BIOCHAR IN CATTLE SHEDS
CLEANING PLATES / UTENSILS
BATHING
HEALTH
CLEANING TEETH
BIOCHAR TABLETS
BIOCHAR IN FOOD AS PART OF FOOD
PREPARATIONS
WATER
WATER PURIFICATION – COLOR,
ODOR, REMOVAL
OF HARMFUL
ELEMENTS, ETC.
RITUAL / SPIRITUAL
/ RELIGIOUS
/ PRACTICES
FIRE / ALTAR / YAGNAS / AGNIHOTRA
FIRE DURING
FESTIVALS
CREMATIONS
NATURAL / ARTIFICIAL FIRES IN
FORESTS / FIELDS, ETC.
BIOCHARCULTURE
Biocharculture
Biocharculture is the process of using Biochar,
including for cultivation of crops
•Biochar is the charcoal produced from carbonaceous source material. Sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems•Biocharculture is one of the means to integrate for sustainable cultivation and carbon sequestration.•Biochar is usually produced at around temperatures 300 to 600 degrees centigrade for example as found in the common biomass cook stoves.•Because of its macromolecular structure dominated by aromatic C, Biochar is more recalcitrant to microbial decomposition than uncharred organic matter
Biocharculture Adaptation benefits
Securing the crop from drought and climate variabiiity
Reclaim the degraded soils,
water conservation,
Lessen the impact of hazardous
pesticides and complex
chemicals & to reduce plant
uptake.
reducing emissions and increasing the
sequestration of greenhouse gases
Conversion of crop residue into
Biochar an option and address
carbon sequestration
Increase in crop yield
increases in C, N, pH, and available
P to the plants
Impacts of Biochar last more than 1000 years.
Temperature regulation in the
soil
Reduction in leaching of the bio / chem fertilizers
applied
Increase in the soil microbes / worms at the biochar and
soil interface
CONTROL AND BIOCHAR - OKRA
Farmers focus80% ON CROP20% ON SOIL
BIOCHAR COMPOST
APPLICATION IN THE FIELDS
OKRA - CONTROL AND BIOCHAR PLOTS
CONTROL BIOCHAR COMPOST
4 KGS 8 KGS 12 KGS
1.5 FEET 6 FEET
CONTROL
BIOCHAR
Adaptation Objective
Initiatives Requirement
1 Better management of soil moisture
SMC conservation Addition of OM (compost, manures, GM,GLM) Cover crop, mulching, residue incorporation
- Support for Labor Cost
- Biomass availability
2 Efficient use of Ground water
Minimising the ground water usage for critical irrigation. Social regulations to control competitive digging of bore wells
- Credit support
- Community support
Increasing efficiency of water use
SRI under borewell and tanks
- Comm.support- Technical support
Micro-irrigation methods (drips, spriklers)
- Credit/financial support
Strategies to be followed in designing adaptations
Adaptation Objectives
Initiatives Requirement
3 Diversify crop / farm systems
Crop diversification from wheat, paddy to millets, Maize, Sorghum
Mono cropping to intercropping, mixed cropping
Soil fertility improvement through cropping systems
Encouraging horticulture
Biomass improvement/ integration of Multi-Purpose Trees
Improved implements
Easing bullock constraint
- Drought , stress r resistant varieties
- Timely availability of seeds, contingency seeds
- Credit for seeds
- CB on technology
- Good planting material
- Timely availability of implements
- Timely availability
of drought power- Marketing support
Adaptation Objectivr
Initiatives Requirement
4 Strengthening livestock production system
Health care system for preventive diseases Strengthening sheep and goat systems through CIG concept. Strengthening Fisheries production
- Support for man power
- Technical support
5 Promoting alternate livelihood activities for income
Promoting back yard poultry Heifer rearing Ram lamb rearing actvity
- Credit support
- Technical support
6 Creating Buffers Community managed fodder banks
Seed Banks to maintain buffer seed and seeds of contingent crops
- Infrastructure
- Capacity Building
- Manpower
BIOCHAR RESULTS
GSBC PROJECT, 2009 (DORUGHT PREVAILED DURING THE GROWING SEASON)
Methane Emissions from paddy fields
Biochar – livestock urine
BIOCHAR URINALS
TAPPING NITROGEN FROM URINE OF ANIMALS AND PEOPLE USING BIOCHAR
OTHER BIOCHAR APPLICATIONS
BIOCHAR BRICKS, GREEN BUILDINGS
Bone
Brick pieces
Pottaryshards
Biochar /Charcoal
Slag
Quartz
Soil
MAGH SERIES BIOCHAR PRODUCING STOVES
GOOD STOVES
http://
goodstove.co
m
MAGH SERIES BIOCHAR PRODUCING STOVES
NO SMOKING
WATER – LESS PLANTS
BIOCHAR LINKS
Terra Preta Info - Indian conextBiochar ExperimentsBiochar - Alkaline soilsBiochar - Alkaline soils reportCharcoal production
Biochar ProductionMagh Biochar RetortGEO mini metal kilnARTI - Charcoal Biochar PlantsProsopis JulifloraProsopis Juliflora report
StovesMagh series tlud woodgas or microgasifier stovesAnila
Biochar UrineBiochar Urinals
Biochar Soil lifeTermitesEarthworms
Pottery ShardsIn soils
CleaningBiochar for Cleaning
Green BuildingsBiochar Bricks
Rural TrashBiochar plus
GSBC PROJECT ON CNN
BIOCHAR INDIA | BIOCHARCULTURE | GOOD STOVE | GEO | GOODPLANET
Thank you..