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NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002 Introduction… Where ? When ? How ?

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Page 1: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

NORTH AFRICA TEAM

Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa

AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002

• Introduction…

•Where ?

•When ?

• How ?

Page 2: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

National case studies in North Africa

Maro

ccoTunisia

Egypt

SETTAT Province

•Low and variable production

•Dry land agriculture

•Low precipitation

•High climate variability

•Drought damage

•High pop increase

CENTER REGION

• Low and variable production

• High pop increase

• Dry land agriculture

• Low precipitation

• High evaporation water deficit

• High RR var. (30mm, 215mm)

• Drough may occure in 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.

NILE DELTA

• High irrigated production

• Extreme urban water and land use conflicts

• Small holders

• Urban and land use water conflicts

• High pop increase

75% (arid, semi arid)87% (arid, semi arid)

95% (arid)

Rain PET R-PET215 1376 -1161

•Where ?

Page 3: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

ة في ت��ونس أهمي��ة الزراع��ات المطرّي��1993 هك( 1000)

زراعة مطرّية/ المجموع

زراعةمطرّي

ة

زراعةسقوية

 

%97 1646

34 زراعة الحبو

93%ب 1835

130 األشجار

المثمرة

%28 42 108 الخضر

%92 285 23 مراعي

Cereals

FruitTrees

Rainfed agriculture

Over 80% of total water consumption used by agricuttural activities.

% rainfed from total

Page 4: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

Country level: Crop responses of raiffed in Tunisia

Effect of irrigation Olive trees production

0

10

20

30

40Q

uin

tau

x/h

a

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Rdt irrigué Rdt totale

0100 000200 000300 000400 000500 000600 000700 000800 000900 000

1 000 000

االنتاج ) طن(تطور إنتاج الطماطم الفصلية

6000000

6020000

6040000

6060000

6080000

6100000

6120000

6140000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Nb pieds Production Olives

Page 5: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

Morocco Settat Province

Tunisia Center Region

Egypt Nil Delta

Integration

Assessment, I & V of CC in North Africa

Climate / Scenarios / vulnerability

Stakeholder engagement

Impact

Evaluation and adaptation

3 cases studies

Links with others AIACC projects results

0-24 month

4-20 month

18-30 month

30 month

6-12 month

WHEN ?

Page 6: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

Driving forces(Socio-economics)

Current Food SecurityMap, GIS, Indicators RF

Crop – Climate –ImpactsDSSAT

Id. Adaptation OptionsST analysis

Evaluate OptionsDSSAT, MCA

Future Food SecurityMap, GIS, CC, Adapt

RF RFS.H.

s. Ag

Other ag.(water supp.)

Stakeholders(Workshop?)

CC Scenarios(downscaling)

How ?

Page 7: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

STsAg.

Other ag.(water supp.)

Stakeholders(Workshop?)

S.H. Example for Tunisia

Small Farmers (80%)

Regional Policy makers (CRDA)

Final report (results)

Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Mauritania + Other AIACC projects.

Central Policy maker

(Ministry of agriculture)

Technical Policy makers

DGPA, UTAP, DGRE

National commissions

Extension service

Dec

isio

ns Project

Page 8: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

Water resources management

- Changing system of water delivery and control

- Provide farmers with guidance on crop water management

- Provide incentives to avoid excessive water use- Water mobilization- Use of new water resources (Waste water, geothermal water, saline water, drainage water…)- Increasing water use efficiency- Etc………………

Adaptation policies I

Page 9: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

Agriculture management

- Crop liberalization (Egypt)- Selection of cultivars(Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Planting date (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Soil mulch- Inter-cropping (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Increasing of agriculture area (Tunisia and Morocco)- Use of new techniques - etc…………………

Adaptation policies II

Page 10: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

Adaptation policies III

Agricultural Trade: Morocco

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000To

tal v

alue

at b

ase

yr (m

illio

n$)

Imports

Exports

Trade BalanceTrade Imbalance

Trading

- Trading intra country

-Trading inter regions

- International trade

Page 11: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

Linking Stakeholders-Adaptation-Scenarios-Vulnerability:• Matrix on current and future risk of adverse effects of

climate• Mapped index derived form a matrix that includes

climate change, impacts, and adaptive capacity

North Africa AIACC Project Outcomes

Page 12: NORTH AFRICA TEAM Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste,

What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – CROP MODELS (e.g., DSSAT)

Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – IRRIGATION MODELS (e.g., CROPWAT)

Will climate significantly affect national agriculture? – MODEL INTEGRATION; GIS INTEGRATION (e.g., DERIVING RESPONSE FUNCTIONS)

MODELS: Defining key questions

We have to be very careful with using model in our region because of the high variability (climate, soil, farmers behaviors…)