VIPs and VIPs and Crisis Management Crisis Management

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni Marizzagianni.marizza@yahoo.itgianni.marizza@yahoo.it

26 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.0026 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00

Chaim Weizmann

The Crisis:The Crisis: World War 1, opportunity of establishing a World War 1, opportunity of establishing a

Jewish «foyer» in Palestine, 1918Jewish «foyer» in Palestine, 1918

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Correct forecast, supporting the winnersCorrect forecast, supporting the winners Employment of a Jewish Brigade with the Employment of a Jewish Brigade with the

British troopsBritish troops Balfour Declaration annexed to the Peace Balfour Declaration annexed to the Peace

treatytreaty

The Result:The Result:

Success: base for the future establishment Success: base for the future establishment of a Jewish Stateof a Jewish State

David Ben-Gurion- �ו�ן �ר�י �ו ג �ן ב �ד ו �� ד

The Crisis:The Crisis:

World War 2, Shoah:World War 2, Shoah:

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Again employment of Jewish military units Again employment of Jewish military units with British troopswith British troops

SharpnessSharpness FarsightednessFarsightedness Capacity of foresightCapacity of foresight Exploitation of the western excitabilityExploitation of the western excitability

The Result:The Result:

Success: establishment of the self-declared Success: establishment of the self-declared Jewish state, military regional powerJewish state, military regional power

Problem: source of instability for the region Problem: source of instability for the region (wars with Arab States), not yet solved(wars with Arab States), not yet solved

Yesterday Pope Francis: “Two states!”Yesterday Pope Francis: “Two states!”

Imre NagyImre Nagy

ValentinaValentina

The Crisis:The Crisis: Uprising in Hungary, 1956Uprising in Hungary, 1956

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

No help by the West No help by the West NATO: No Action, Talk OnlyNATO: No Action, Talk Only Contemporary Suez crisis, catalyzing the Contemporary Suez crisis, catalyzing the

Western attentionWestern attention

The Result:The Result:

Failure, repressionFailure, repression Communist regime consolidatedCommunist regime consolidated Nagy killed by the SovietsNagy killed by the Soviets 43 years later: Hungary first to join NATO43 years later: Hungary first to join NATO

Gamal Abdel NasserGamal Abdel Nasser

The Crisis:The Crisis:

Suez crisis, 1956Suez crisis, 1956

The crisis management:The crisis management:

Willingness of exploiting the Arab prideWillingness of exploiting the Arab pride Blockade of the Canal, nationalization of Blockade of the Canal, nationalization of

the “Company of the Suez Canal” (FR-UK the “Company of the Suez Canal” (FR-UK property)property)

Underevaluation of the Western resolveUnderevaluation of the Western resolve Ingenuousness after the FR-UK ultimatumIngenuousness after the FR-UK ultimatum Incapacity to recognize the Western trapIncapacity to recognize the Western trap

End of the crisis:End of the crisis:US/SU interventionUS/SU intervention

USA : colonial enterprise, threat to damage USA : colonial enterprise, threat to damage British interests by economic meansBritish interests by economic means

USSR: threat to “nuke” London and ParisUSSR: threat to “nuke” London and Paris

The result:The result:

FailureFailure Canal reopenedCanal reopened

Charles De GaulleCharles De Gaulle

Martin

The Crisis:The Crisis: Independence of Algeria, 1954-1962Independence of Algeria, 1954-1962

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management: Uprising: born in Indochina (1954)Uprising: born in Indochina (1954) 1954-62: Counter-insurgency, torture, terrorism, 1954-62: Counter-insurgency, torture, terrorism,

napalm, concentration camps (2M)napalm, concentration camps (2M) FLN: based in Egypt (!)FLN: based in Egypt (!) 1958: pied-noirs favour the return of CDG1958: pied-noirs favour the return of CDG CDG strategy: ambiguity, new constitution, CDG strategy: ambiguity, new constitution,

Algeria “associated territory”Algeria “associated territory” Internal fractureInternal fracture 6 July 1962: referendum, independence6 July 1962: referendum, independence

The Result:The Result:

More failure than successMore failure than success Algeria independentAlgeria independent France close to civil warFrance close to civil war European territory loses more than 50%European territory loses more than 50%

John Fitzgerald KennedyJohn Fitzgerald Kennedy

The Crisis:The Crisis: Pig Bay enterprise, Cuba, 1961Pig Bay enterprise, Cuba, 1961

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Approximate planning by CIA during the Approximate planning by CIA during the Eisenhower presidencyEisenhower presidency

3 monts after JFK election: Operation 3 monts after JFK election: Operation Zapata vs Castro regime (politico-economic Zapata vs Castro regime (politico-economic reasons)reasons)

Cuban expatriates and CIA agents landing in Cuban expatriates and CIA agents landing in CubaCuba

Excessive confidence in Cuban population Excessive confidence in Cuban population behaviourbehaviour

The Result:The Result:

Complete failureComplete failure Damage for the image of JFK (electoral Damage for the image of JFK (electoral

campaign: peace, freedom…)campaign: peace, freedom…) Kruscev: “Of what freedom are you Kruscev: “Of what freedom are you

speaking?”speaking?”

John Fitzgerald Kennedy

Andrea

The Crisis:The Crisis: Missiles crisis, Cuba, 1963Missiles crisis, Cuba, 1963

partner-puFORID:11ISO-8859

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Correct diplomatic actionCorrect diplomatic action Avoiding any military interventionAvoiding any military intervention

The Result:The Result:

SuccessSuccess: Soviet withdrawal: Soviet withdrawal Missiles threath disappearedMissiles threath disappeared FailureFailure: US promised to tolerate the Cuban : US promised to tolerate the Cuban

communist regime (source of instability for communist regime (source of instability for the region and outside, exportation of the the region and outside, exportation of the revolution, regime surviving still today)revolution, regime surviving still today)

Aleksander DubcekAleksander Dubcek

Yuri

The Crisis:The Crisis: Uprising in Czechoslowakia, Prague Spring Uprising in Czechoslowakia, Prague Spring

19681968

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

NATO cannot interveneNATO cannot intervene Doctrine Breznev (Limited sovereignty)Doctrine Breznev (Limited sovereignty) Warsaw Pact (minus Romania) intervenes Warsaw Pact (minus Romania) intervenes

militarilymilitarily

The Result:The Result:

Failure, but:Failure, but: 31 years later: Czech Republic first to join 31 years later: Czech Republic first to join

NATONATO

Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm

Herbert Ernst Karl Frahm(Willy Brandt)

The Crisis:The Crisis: Palestinian attack to the Israeli Olimpic Palestinian attack to the Israeli Olimpic

Team, Munich, 1972Team, Munich, 1972

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

UnpreparednessUnpreparedness SuperficialitySuperficiality Refusal of the offer by a specialized Israeli Refusal of the offer by a specialized Israeli

teamteam

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure ...but the terrorists were all captured and ...but the terrorists were all captured and

killed by Mossadkilled by Mossad

Yitzhak Rabinרבין יצחק

The Crisis:The Crisis: Entebbe raid, Uganda, 1976Entebbe raid, Uganda, 1976

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

High risk, but:High risk, but: Perfect planningPerfect planning Perfect simulation (airport similar to that of Perfect simulation (airport similar to that of

Entebbe, in order to train the Special Entebbe, in order to train the Special Forces)Forces)

High professionalityHigh professionality

The Result:The Result:

Great successGreat success

Jimmy CarterJimmy Carter

The Crisis:The Crisis: Hostages kidnapping, US embassy Tehran, Hostages kidnapping, US embassy Tehran,

1979-1981 1979-1981

The Crisis ManagementThe Crisis Management

Military option:Military option: Imperfect planningImperfect planning Misfortune (sandstorm, crash between 2 Misfortune (sandstorm, crash between 2

aircraft)aircraft)

The Result:The Result:

Complete failureComplete failure Hostages released after 444 days (as soon as Hostages released after 444 days (as soon as

the successor of Carter was elected)the successor of Carter was elected)

Ronald ReaganRonald Reagan

The Crisis:The Crisis: 1980: Alarm about Global Warming1980: Alarm about Global Warming

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Alarmistic report under Carter presidency Alarmistic report under Carter presidency (Jason advisory organization)(Jason advisory organization)

Nierenberg report (with fake data, in order Nierenberg report (with fake data, in order to reduce alarm)to reduce alarm)

The survival of industrial/technological The survival of industrial/technological lobby prevails on the survivability of lobby prevails on the survivability of common people common people (Great Smog, UK!)(Great Smog, UK!)

Political will dominates scientific worldPolitical will dominates scientific world

The Result:The Result:

Partial success (the problem is postponed)Partial success (the problem is postponed) Failure: combating global warming today is Failure: combating global warming today is

more difficultmore difficult

Menachem Beginבגין מנחם

The Crisis:The Crisis: Destruction of the nuclear reactor Osirak, Destruction of the nuclear reactor Osirak,

Iraq 1981Iraq 1981

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Perfect planningPerfect planning Courage Courage Calculated Calculated external risk external risk (international (international

community, USA included, against community, USA included, against preventive attacks)preventive attacks)

Acceptance of Acceptance of internal risk internal risk (in case of (in case of failure, Israeli government had to resign)failure, Israeli government had to resign)

The Result:The Result:

Perfect successPerfect success End of Iraqi nuclear ambitionsEnd of Iraqi nuclear ambitions Israel: a safer countryIsrael: a safer country

Margaret Thatcher

Rebecca

The Crisis:The Crisis: Falklands / Malvinas warFalklands / Malvinas war

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Strong resolveStrong resolve Authoritarian managementAuthoritarian management (Iron Lady)(Iron Lady)

The Result:The Result:

SuccessSuccess British prideBritish pride

Margaret ThatcherMargaret Thatcher

The Crisis:The Crisis: 1985: measures against hooligans after the 1985: measures against hooligans after the

Heysel tragedy (Bruxelles)Heysel tragedy (Bruxelles)

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Strong and immediate countermeasures Strong and immediate countermeasures adopted by the Brish Government against adopted by the Brish Government against Supporter ClubsSupporter Clubs

Prohibition of external activities Prohibition of external activities British Government: more effective than British Government: more effective than

UEFAUEFA

The Result:The Result:

SuccessSuccess Defeat of violent hooligansDefeat of violent hooligans Good example (not always followed) for Good example (not always followed) for

foreign countriesforeign countries

Olof PalmeOlof Palme

The crisis:The crisis: Threat of Prime Minister’s assassination Threat of Prime Minister’s assassination

The crisis management:The crisis management:

Refusal of personal protection by Olof Refusal of personal protection by Olof PalmePalme

Decision to adopt a low profile by Social-Decision to adopt a low profile by Social-Democratic Party just to contradict the Democratic Party just to contradict the predecessor Liberal Partypredecessor Liberal Party

Mix of ideology, idealism, fatalism, Mix of ideology, idealism, fatalism, underestimation of the threatunderestimation of the threat

The result:The result:

Failure, assassination of Prime MinisterFailure, assassination of Prime Minister

Mihail GorbaciovMihail Gorbaciov

The Crisis:The Crisis: Chernobyl disaster, 1986Chernobyl disaster, 1986

The Crisis ManagementThe Crisis Management

Underevaluation of the threatUnderevaluation of the threat Maintaining the secretMaintaining the secret Ineffective measuresIneffective measures

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure

Saddam HusseinSaddam Hussein

The crisis:The crisis: 1990: Iraq occupies Kuwait; kidnapping of 1990: Iraq occupies Kuwait; kidnapping of

Western hostages (human shields)Western hostages (human shields)

The crisis managementThe crisis management

10.000 hostages 10.000 hostages Aim 1: dissuade West from bombingAim 1: dissuade West from bombing Aim 2: divide each state (government / Aim 2: divide each state (government /

public opinion)public opinion) EU prohibits talks with SH (solution: secret EU prohibits talks with SH (solution: secret

talks)talks) Dozens of trips to Iraq by VIPs, IPs, LIPs Dozens of trips to Iraq by VIPs, IPs, LIPs

or NAOIPsor NAOIPs

The result:The result:

Immediate Iraqi success, Western world Immediate Iraqi success, Western world extremely dividedextremely divided

At medium-long term: a failure (war, loss of At medium-long term: a failure (war, loss of Kuwait, SH ousted, captured, jailed, trialed, Kuwait, SH ousted, captured, jailed, trialed, hanged)hanged)

Aldo Ajello

The Crisis:The Crisis: Mozambique civil war and UN Mozambique civil war and UN

intervention, 1992-1994intervention, 1992-1994

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Application of the perfect algorythm:Application of the perfect algorythm: - UN deployment- UN deployment - demining- demining - withdrawal of refugees- withdrawal of refugees - collecting weapons- collecting weapons - elections- elections - new army- new army - UN withdrawal- UN withdrawal

The Result:The Result:

SuccessSuccess End of civil warEnd of civil war Start-up of a solid democracyStart-up of a solid democracy Reconciliation Reconciliation

Richard Holbrooke

The Crisis:The Crisis: Nineties: implosion of former Nineties: implosion of former

Yugoslavia, 1995: civil war in Yugoslavia, 1995: civil war in Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-Herzegovina

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Shuttle diplomacyShuttle diplomacy Cohercitive diplomacyCohercitive diplomacy

The Result:The Result:

SuccessSuccess: end of war (Dayton : end of war (Dayton agreement)agreement)

FailureFailure: Agreement stops war, : Agreement stops war, doesn’t establish peacedoesn’t establish peace

Ariel Sharonשרון אריאל

The Crisis:The Crisis: Between XX, XXI century: wave of Between XX, XXI century: wave of

suicide attacks in Israelsuicide attacks in Israel

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Building of the WallBuilding of the Wall

The Result:The Result:

Success (attacks reduced to zero)Success (attacks reduced to zero)

Viktor ChernomyrdinВиктор Черномырдин

The Crisis:The Crisis: Hostages kidnapping at Hostages kidnapping at

Budyonnovsk hospitalBudyonnovsk hospital

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Debatable negotiation with Debatable negotiation with terroriststerrorists

Special Forces not well trainedSpecial Forces not well trained

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure

Slobodan MiloševićСлободан Милошевић

The Crisis:The Crisis: Kosovo crisis, 1998-1999Kosovo crisis, 1998-1999

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Refusal by Milosevic of international Refusal by Milosevic of international proposals (OSCE mission headed by proposals (OSCE mission headed by Felipe Gonzales, withdrawal od Felipe Gonzales, withdrawal od Serbian Special Forces from Kosovo)Serbian Special Forces from Kosovo)

23 Apr. 1998, referendum: is Kosovo 23 Apr. 1998, referendum: is Kosovo an internal or foreign case? (98%: an internal or foreign case? (98%: internal!)internal!)

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure Rambouillet talks without outcomeRambouillet talks without outcome NATO attackNATO attack Consequence: independence of Consequence: independence of

KosovoKosovo

Vladimir Vladimirovic PutinВлади�мир Влади�мирович Пу�тин

The Crisis:The Crisis: 2000: Sinking of Kursk submarine2000: Sinking of Kursk submarine

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Lack of interest (he remains on Lack of interest (he remains on leave)leave)

Poor respect for human lifePoor respect for human life Keeping the secret in any caseKeeping the secret in any case Refusal of external specialized help Refusal of external specialized help

(Norwegian team)(Norwegian team)

The Result:The Result:

Failure, tragedyFailure, tragedy

Zoran ĐinđićЗоран Ђинђић

The Crisis:The Crisis: Threat to the life of Serbian Prime MinisterThreat to the life of Serbian Prime Minister

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Underevaluation of the threatUnderevaluation of the threat Approximate personal securityApproximate personal security

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure (Prime Minister assassinated) (Prime Minister assassinated) SuccessSuccess (new pro-Western policy, economic (new pro-Western policy, economic

reforms, fight against ciminality, reforms, fight against ciminality, Milosevic’s capture)Milosevic’s capture)

Milosevic rendered to ICCMilosevic rendered to ICC

George W. BushGeorge W. Bush

Pajwak

The Crisis:The Crisis: Al Qaeda attack against the Twin Towers Al Qaeda attack against the Twin Towers

and the Pentagon, 11 September 2001and the Pentagon, 11 September 2001

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Though measures against Though measures against terrorismterrorism

The Result:The Result:

Domestic policy: Domestic policy: successsuccess (national (national cohesion)cohesion)

Foreign policy: Foreign policy: failurefailure (decades- (decades-long campaigns in Iraq, long campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, wave of anti-Afghanistan, wave of anti-Americanism)Americanism)

Vladimir Vladimirovic PutinВлади�мир Влади�мирович Пу�тин

The Crisis:The Crisis: 2002: Terrorist attack against the 2002: Terrorist attack against the

“Dubrovka” theater “Dubrovka” theater

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Strong resolveStrong resolve Strong, brutal measures (gas Strong, brutal measures (gas

employed against everybody: employed against everybody: terrorists and innocent people)terrorists and innocent people)

The Result:The Result:

““Success”Success”

Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schroeder

The Crisis:The Crisis: 2002: Flood in the Western German regions2002: Flood in the Western German regions

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Political cynicism, opportunism (during the Political cynicism, opportunism (during the electoral campaign, a picture of him in the electoral campaign, a picture of him in the middle of the mud permits him to gain a middle of the mud permits him to gain a certain percentage)certain percentage)

The Result:The Result:

Success (Schroeder wins the Success (Schroeder wins the elections)elections)

Consequence: Germany (2003) Consequence: Germany (2003) doesn’t intervene in Iraqi crisis, doesn’t intervene in Iraqi crisis, Europe dividedEurope divided

Lewis Paul “Jerry” Bremer III

The Crisis:The Crisis: Iraqi reconstruction, 2003Iraqi reconstruction, 2003

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Ignorance of the local situationIgnorance of the local situation Ignorance of previous lessons Ignorance of previous lessons

learned (Germany, Japan)learned (Germany, Japan) Disbandment of Iraqi ArmiDisbandment of Iraqi Armi Disbandment of the Ba’ath PartyDisbandment of the Ba’ath Party

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure CPA: Cannot Provide AnythingCPA: Cannot Provide Anything Today’s Iraq is not a safer placeToday’s Iraq is not a safer place

Jose Maria Alfredo Aznar Lopez

The Crisis:The Crisis: Atocha Station terrorist attack, Atocha Station terrorist attack,

Madrid 2004Madrid 2004

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Willingness of politically exploiting Willingness of politically exploiting attacksattacks

Attempt to blame ETA (political Attempt to blame ETA (political elections)elections)

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure Aznar’s Party loses the electionsAznar’s Party loses the elections Consequence: the new Prime Minister Consequence: the new Prime Minister

(Zapatero) withdraws Spanish military (Zapatero) withdraws Spanish military units from Iraqunits from Iraq

Vladimir Vladimirovic PutinВлади�мир Влади�мирович Пу�тин

The Crisis:The Crisis: 2004: terrorist attack against the 2004: terrorist attack against the

school of Beslanschool of Beslan

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Strong mesuresStrong mesures Brutal repressionBrutal repression

The Result:The Result:

SuccessSuccess All terrorists killedAll terrorists killed

George W. Bush

The Crisis:The Crisis: 2005: hurricanes Kathrina, Rita2005: hurricanes Kathrina, Rita

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Poor resources (National Guard, Poor resources (National Guard, materials, resources employed in materials, resources employed in

Iraq)Iraq) Wrong management, incorrect Wrong management, incorrect

forecast: “Rita will pass over forecast: “Rita will pass over Houston”. Houston”.

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure Houston evacuation, disorders, 100 Houston evacuation, disorders, 100

victims… and Rita never passed victims… and Rita never passed over Houston.over Houston.

Barak H. ObamaBarak H. Obama

The Crisis:The Crisis: Deepwater Horizon disaster, oil Deepwater Horizon disaster, oil

spill in the Gulf of Mexicospill in the Gulf of Mexico

The Crisis Management:The Crisis Management:

Subjection to the oil companiesSubjection to the oil companies

The Result:The Result:

FailureFailure Environmental disasterEnvironmental disaster

Nicholas SarkozyNicholas Sarkozy

Sohiala

The Crisis:The Crisis: 2011: Libyan crisis2011: Libyan crisis

The crisis management:The crisis management:

Media campaign stressing the Media campaign stressing the casus belli (popular uprising, casus belli (popular uprising, brutal government’s repression)brutal government’s repression)

Lessons learned of Suez 1956: USA Lessons learned of Suez 1956: USA must be involvedmust be involved

The resultThe result

SuccessSuccess More prestige for France in the More prestige for France in the

MediterraneanMediterranean More Libyan energy resources for More Libyan energy resources for

France France (at the expenses of Italy)(at the expenses of Italy)

Bashar al-AssadBashar al-Assad

The crisis:The crisis: Civil war in Syria Civil war in Syria

The crisis management:The crisis management:

Strongpoints of the regime:Strongpoints of the regime: Reliance on regime’s supporters Reliance on regime’s supporters

(Iran, Russia, Hezbollah…)(Iran, Russia, Hezbollah…) Russia’s support in exchange of a Russia’s support in exchange of a

naval basenaval base Western weakness (Obama: reset Western weakness (Obama: reset

with Russia)with Russia)

The result?The result?

Success? (no international consensus about Success? (no international consensus about military option)military option)

Re-election next 3 June? (no opposition, Re-election next 3 June? (no opposition, elections organized by the regime, 1/3 of elections organized by the regime, 1/3 of population: displaced…)population: displaced…)

Chemical weapons to be destroyed by 30 Chemical weapons to be destroyed by 30 June? (85% not enough, possibility to use June? (85% not enough, possibility to use hidden stocks in order to blame opposition)hidden stocks in order to blame opposition)

VIPs and VIPs and Crisis Management Crisis Management

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni Marizzagianni.marizza@yahoo.itgianni.marizza@yahoo.it

26 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.0026 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00