Crisis Management and Crisis Management and PreventionPrevention

(Management of Crises in case of Floods (Management of Crises in case of Floods and Volcanic Eruptions)and Volcanic Eruptions)

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni Marizzagianni.marizza@yahoo.itgianni.marizza@yahoo.it

14 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,0014 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,00

Aim of the Module:Aim of the Module:

• Focusing on Crisis Management in Focusing on Crisis Management in different situations in order to find different situations in order to find

lessons learnedlessons learned

Crises produced by Crises produced by FloodsFloods

Case Studies:Case Studies:• Mediterranean tsunami, 8.000 years Mediterranean tsunami, 8.000 years

agoago

• Vajont dam, 1963Vajont dam, 1963

• Central Europe, 2002Central Europe, 2002

• Asia Tsunami, 2004 Asia Tsunami, 2004

• Katrina hurricane, 2005Katrina hurricane, 2005

• Future, possible eventsFuture, possible events

Crises produced by Crises produced by FloodsFloods

Definitions:Definitions:• Flood: big, disastrous accumulation of waterFlood: big, disastrous accumulation of water

• ForeseableForeseable floods: monsoons, cyclons, floods: monsoons, cyclons, typhoons, hurricanestyphoons, hurricanes

• Non-foreseableNon-foreseable floods: tsunami, man-made floods: tsunami, man-made disastersdisasters

• Collateral effects (Collateral effects (short-mediumshort-medium term): term): landslides, pollution of rivers,…landslides, pollution of rivers,…

• Collateral effects (Collateral effects (longlong term): alluvional plains term): alluvional plains

6000 bC6000 bC

(Pre)historical framework(Pre)historical framework

• Sumerians and Babilonians producing Sumerians and Babilonians producing beerbeer

• Bosphorus opens, Mediterranean waters Bosphorus opens, Mediterranean waters invade Black Sea basininvade Black Sea basin

• Rice cultivation in ChinaRice cultivation in China

• Agriculture spreads in Nile valley, Agriculture spreads in Nile valley, Greece, ItalyGreece, Italy

• First cattle-farms in the Near/Middle EastFirst cattle-farms in the Near/Middle East

According to recent archeological According to recent archeological findings:findings:

• Huge tsunami in the Mediterranean,Huge tsunami in the Mediterranean,

• Coasts of Sicily, Southern Italy, Albania, Coasts of Sicily, Southern Italy, Albania, Greece, Northern Africa from Tunisia to Greece, Northern Africa from Tunisia to Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey,Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey,

• Reason: sinking of 35 km3 of terrain from Reason: sinking of 35 km3 of terrain from Etna Volcano after an earthquake,Etna Volcano after an earthquake,

• Waves 50m high, at high speedWaves 50m high, at high speed

• Many neolitic human structures disappearedMany neolitic human structures disappeared

• Bosphorus, Black Sea, TU: Asia or Europe? Bosphorus, Black Sea, TU: Asia or Europe?

19631963

Historical framework:Historical framework:

• Reconstruction of Europe after WW2Reconstruction of Europe after WW2• 3 June: Pope Giovanni XXIII dies3 June: Pope Giovanni XXIII dies• 16 June: Valentina Tereshkova 1st 16 June: Valentina Tereshkova 1st

woman in the Spacewoman in the Space• 28 August, MLK at Lincoln Memorial: 28 August, MLK at Lincoln Memorial:

““I have a dream!”I have a dream!”• 22 November: JFK killed at Dallas22 November: JFK killed at Dallas• 12 December: Kenya independent 12 December: Kenya independent

from UKfrom UK• Italy: “economic miracle”Italy: “economic miracle”

Vajont Dam, 9 October 1963Vajont Dam, 9 October 1963

• hydroelectric plant, aim: energy for hydroelectric plant, aim: energy for Venice and Northeastern ItalyVenice and Northeastern Italy

• Dam: 115 million m3 water of Piave riverDam: 115 million m3 water of Piave river• Landslide: 270 million m3 terrain (Mt Landslide: 270 million m3 terrain (Mt

Toc)Toc)• 5 villages destroyed (Longarone5 villages destroyed (Longarone** +) +)• 2.000 victims2.000 victims• 2008: “international year of Planet 2008: “international year of Planet

Earth”, Vajont declared “avoidable Earth”, Vajont declared “avoidable disaster” failure by engineers and disaster” failure by engineers and geologists, who didn’t understand what geologists, who didn’t understand what they were doing…they were doing…

• Trials ended 10 years later, without Trials ended 10 years later, without serious consequences serious consequences *Rommel

Lessons (not) learned:Lessons (not) learned:

• Gaius Valerius Catullus (1st century Gaius Valerius Catullus (1st century bC), born in Verona, describes similar bC), born in Verona, describes similar events in the same valleyevents in the same valley

• Crisis prevention.Crisis prevention. Don’t Don’t underestimate historical events underestimate historical events (landslides in the same area in 1347, (landslides in the same area in 1347, 1737, 1748, 1814, 1868, 1908, 1925, 1737, 1748, 1814, 1868, 1908, 1925, 1960)1960)

20022002

Historical framework:Historical framework:

• 1 year after 911 and GWOT1 year after 911 and GWOT

• USA activates Guantanamo prisonUSA activates Guantanamo prison

• Netherlands: Pim Fortuyn killed, trial Netherlands: Pim Fortuyn killed, trial against Milosevic beginsagainst Milosevic begins

• Yugoslav Federation becomes Serbia Yugoslav Federation becomes Serbia and Montenegroand Montenegro

• NATO-Russia Council establishedNATO-Russia Council established

• Turkey abolishes death penaltyTurkey abolishes death penalty

• 1 year before 2nd war in Iraq1 year before 2nd war in Iraq

Central Europe, 2002Central Europe, 2002

August 2002August 2002

““Political” Crisis Political” Crisis Management: Management: • Flood just before elections in GermanyFlood just before elections in Germany

• Opinion polls: Chancellor Schroeder Opinion polls: Chancellor Schroeder losing, Mr. Stoiber winninglosing, Mr. Stoiber winning

• Ace: picture of Mr. Schroeder in the mudAce: picture of Mr. Schroeder in the mud

• Victory of SPDVictory of SPD

• 2003: GE (+ FR) vs USA, UK about Iraq2003: GE (+ FR) vs USA, UK about Iraq

Lessons Learned:Lessons Learned:

• European Commission engagementEuropean Commission engagement• Sinergy between National States and EUSinergy between National States and EU• European Civil Protection still missing (14 European Civil Protection still missing (14

years after the Italian proposal)years after the Italian proposal)• Public disasters influence electionsPublic disasters influence elections• Without this flood: Chancellor Stoiber, GE Without this flood: Chancellor Stoiber, GE

(and FR) supporting campaign in Iraq(and FR) supporting campaign in Iraq• Public disasters influence also international Public disasters influence also international

relations, alliances, coalitions, Geopoliticsrelations, alliances, coalitions, Geopolitics

20042004

Historical framework:Historical framework:

• 1 February: Saudi Arabia: 250 pilgrims 1 February: Saudi Arabia: 250 pilgrims dye at Meccadye at Mecca

• Asia: chicken flu spreadsAsia: chicken flu spreads• 11 March: terrorist attacks in Spain11 March: terrorist attacks in Spain• Cyprus: failure of referendum about Cyprus: failure of referendum about

reunificationreunification• April: Iraq, Abu-Ghraib abusesApril: Iraq, Abu-Ghraib abuses• 1 May: EU incorporates 10 new 1 May: EU incorporates 10 new

membersmembers

Tsunami, 26 December Tsunami, 26 December 20042004

energy of 23.000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2004_Indonesia_Tsunami_Complete.gif

• 230.000 victims (incl. hundreds in 230.000 victims (incl. hundreds in Somalia, 1 in Kenya!)Somalia, 1 in Kenya!)

• Nations affected: Bangladesh, Nations affected: Bangladesh, Burma, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Burma, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Tanzania, Maldives, Madagascar, Tanzania, Maldives, Madagascar, Somalia, South Africa, Sri-Lanka, Somalia, South Africa, Sri-Lanka, ThailandThailand

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_-_affected_countries.png

• 230.000 victims (hundreds in Somalia, 230.000 victims (hundreds in Somalia, 1 in Kenya!)1 in Kenya!)

• Nations affected: Bangladesh, Burma, Nations affected: Bangladesh, Burma, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Maldives, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Maldives, Somalia, Sri-Lanka, ThailandSomalia, Sri-Lanka, Thailand

• Damages: 2 billion USDDamages: 2 billion USD

• Danger: epidemic diseasesDanger: epidemic diseases

tsunami

Influence on Sri Lanka civil Influence on Sri Lanka civil warwar

• Tsunami hits mostly Tamil-controlled zonesTsunami hits mostly Tamil-controlled zones

• 27.008 victims in Government-controlled 27.008 victims in Government-controlled areas, 16.656 victims + 18.481 missing in areas, 16.656 victims + 18.481 missing in Tamil-controlled areas. Tamil-controlled areas.

• 16.236 wounded, 578.224 displaced people. 16.236 wounded, 578.224 displaced people.

• Foreigners: 107 victimsForeigners: 107 victims

• 4 years after: May 2009, Tamil Tigers 4 years after: May 2009, Tamil Tigers defeated defeated (by Government or tsunami?)(by Government or tsunami?)

Lessons Learned:Lessons Learned:

• Importance of communications (lack of Importance of communications (lack of early warning systems)early warning systems)

• Natural disasters can influence the final Natural disasters can influence the final result of wars (example: Waterloo) result of wars (example: Waterloo)

• International aid benefits Governments, International aid benefits Governments, not oppositions (example: Sri Lanka)not oppositions (example: Sri Lanka)

• International aid used not only for International aid used not only for humanitarian purposes (Sri Lanka, humanitarian purposes (Sri Lanka, Marshall Plan)Marshall Plan)

ERP (Marshall Plan)ERP (Marshall Plan)

• No Eastern EuropeNo Eastern Europe

• It supported mostly the winnersIt supported mostly the winners

• It also supported who didn’t fightIt also supported who didn’t fight

• It supported who didn’t receive It supported who didn’t receive damagesdamages

• Did it support FR, UK nuclear Did it support FR, UK nuclear plans? (FR 1952, UK 1960)plans? (FR 1952, UK 1960)

20052005

Historical frameworkHistorical framework

• 2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003)2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003)

• Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory military servicemilitary service

• Viktor Yushenko President of UkraineViktor Yushenko President of Ukraine

• Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no USA)Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no USA)

• 28 March: earthquake off Sumatra28 March: earthquake off Sumatra

• 23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims

• Piracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden eruptsPiracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden erupts

Katrina hurricane, 2005Katrina hurricane, 2005

Katrina hurricane, 2005Katrina hurricane, 2005

Winds: 280 km/h

Katrina hurricane, 2005Katrina hurricane, 2005

New Orleans:2 weeks after

Reasons:

-building a big city under the level of sea, between a river and a lake : acceptable 2-3 centuries ago,-building embankments and pumping water: risky idea in NL, bad idea in hurricane-area,-NASA 2000: “within 100 years, New Orleans will be the new Atlantis”,-2005: funds for the reinforcement of dams: to Iraqi War,-2004: 94 M$ from hurricanes to GWOT,-Nat Guard: 30% personnel, 50% equipment: in Iraq

Consequences:

-thousands of victims, 1 million homeless,

-many oil platforms destroyed,

-12 oil refineries out of order,

-95% oil and 88% gas produced in the Gulf of Mexico: paralyzed,-energy crisis,

-political consequences: USA forced to accept foreign aid,-doubts about Iraqi war,-doubts about US capabilities

(war + homeland security?)

A recent example:A recent example:

“Katrina” hurricane“Katrina” hurricaneSolution:

NATO Response Force(again!)

Like in Pakistan earthquake

NATO Response ForceNATO Response Forcehttp://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htmhttp://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm

Launched at Prague Summit, 2002Proposed by Mr. Rumsfeld21.000 troops from Army, Navy, Air ForceAim: oblige European Allies to do more

Lessons Learned:Lessons Learned:

• NRF established for GWOT, employed twice in NRF established for GWOT, employed twice in 12 years, always for humanitarian reasons12 years, always for humanitarian reasons

• NRF: keep it readyNRF: keep it ready• Natural disasters influence domestic policyNatural disasters influence domestic policy• Katrina: political, internal consequences for Katrina: political, internal consequences for

Bush administration (and re-election)Bush administration (and re-election)• Gulf of Mexico: same problems for Mr. Gulf of Mexico: same problems for Mr.

Obama?Obama?• Natural disasters also influence foreign policy Natural disasters also influence foreign policy

and Geopolitics (Iraq)and Geopolitics (Iraq)

Mediterranean, 2020 (?)Mediterranean, 2020 (?)

• Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?

• Events already occurred:Events already occurred:

-8.000 years ago (the biggest ever),-8.000 years ago (the biggest ever),

-365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) -365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) destroys the coastal zone of Egypt,destroys the coastal zone of Egypt,

-1693: submarine earthquake hits eastern -1693: submarine earthquake hits eastern coast of Sicilycoast of Sicily

-1831-32: Ferdinandea island / Graham -1831-32: Ferdinandea island / Graham

Ferdinand IIBorboneKing of Two Sicilies

Mediterranean, 2020 (?)Mediterranean, 2020 (?)• Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?

• Events already occurred:Events already occurred:

-8.000 years ago (the biggest ever),-8.000 years ago (the biggest ever),

-365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) destroys coasts -365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) destroys coasts of Egypt,of Egypt,

-1693: submarine earthquake hits east coast of Sicily-1693: submarine earthquake hits east coast of Sicily

-1831-32: Ferdinandea / Graham -1831-32: Ferdinandea / Graham

-1908: Messina earthquake generates a tsunami -1908: Messina earthquake generates a tsunami provoking thousands victimsprovoking thousands victims

-2002: small tsunami off Stromboli-2002: small tsunami off Stromboli

Marsili, Magnaghi, Vavilov, Marsili, Magnaghi, Vavilov, Cassini, Secchi, Issel, Poseidone, Cassini, Secchi, Issel, Poseidone, Marchi, Flavio Gioia, Palinuro,…Marchi, Flavio Gioia, Palinuro,…

• www.naturamediterraneo.comwww.naturamediterraneo.com

Vavilov

Flavio Gioia

Marsili

Lessons learned???Lessons learned???

Last eruption: AD 1302

Mt. Epomeo, Ischia: a volcano

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Guido_Bertolaso_a_Viareggio.jpg

ALARMISM?SUPERFICIALITY?

Crises produced byVolcanic Eruptions

6 case studies:-Vesuvius, …-Tambora, 1815-Krakatoa, 1883-Pinatubo, 1991-Anatahan, 2005-Eyjafjallayokull, 2010

79 AD

1631

1760

1794

1872

March 1944March 1944

[Picture taken by US troops]

• ““These Italians show an apparent indifference, These Italians show an apparent indifference, very remarkable, towards the disaster. I very remarkable, towards the disaster. I expected demonstrations of panic, desperate expected demonstrations of panic, desperate women, crazy men and children. Nothing at all. women, crazy men and children. Nothing at all. People gathered in groups, looking at the slow People gathered in groups, looking at the slow sacrifice of the village, as it was a casual fire. sacrifice of the village, as it was a casual fire. The doctor of the village interrupted saving some The doctor of the village interrupted saving some goods of him and showed me a good observation goods of him and showed me a good observation point. There were also some signs of humor”point. There were also some signs of humor”

(Manchester Guardian’s envoy, 22 March, 1944)(Manchester Guardian’s envoy, 22 March, 1944)

Lessons NOT learned:Lessons NOT learned:

Lessons NOT learned:Lessons NOT learned:

1815

Historical framework:

-26 February: Napoleon escapes from Elba,-April: eruption of Tambora volcano, Indonesia,-9 June: end of Vienna Congress (started in Nov 1814),-18 June: Napoleon defeated at Waterloo,-26 September: Austria, Russia, Prussia: Holy Alliance,

Tambora, 1815-Sumbawa island, 1.000 km far from Jakarta,-10.000 victims immediately, 85.000 later (hunger, disease),-before explosion: 4.000 mt, after: 1.000,-heavy ash: 2,5 million km2-light ash: huge cloud, athmosphere, stratosphere, up to Europe, America for 2 years-1815: “year without summer”-climatic changes, rainshowers and thunderstorms in Europe and America, famine in Ireland, emigration,

napoleonenapoleone

INTERVENTION IN DISASTER

RELIEF

Major General Giovanni MARIZZA

TURIN, April 18th, 2008

-18 June: Napoleon unable to employ his Cavalry and Artillery,-tactical result: Napoleon defeated (by Anglo-Prussians or by a volcano?)-strategic result: new world order

Lessons Learned:

-serious consequences, even on the other side of the world,

-volcanic eruptions can influence Geopolitics

1883

Historical framework:

-24 May: New York, Brooklin Bridge inauguration,

-28 July: earthquake in Ischia: 2.333 victims,

-29 July: Benito Mussolini is born,

-30 October: treaty between Austria-Hungary and Romania to counter Russian influence in the Balkans,

Krakatoa, Indonesia, 1883

BEFORE

AFTER

• The biggest ever eruption The biggest ever eruption in the world,in the world,

• Biggest ever noise in the Biggest ever noise in the history (heard at 5.000 history (heard at 5.000 km),km),

• Power: 200 Megatons,Power: 200 Megatons,

• Air waves: 7 times around Air waves: 7 times around the world,the world,

• Spectacular sunsets Spectacular sunsets everywhere for yearseverywhere for years

Munch: “Shrijk” (1893)

Lessons Learned:

-still active (last eruption: 1994),

-keep distant (not less than 3 km),

-biological aspect: life disappeared, after 50 years: 270 new species,

-according to experts: a new destructive explosion in the near future (like in 1883, but with a much higher density of population)

1991

Historical framework:

-first call by a GSM cellphone,-9 January: Soviet troops occupy Vilnius trying to stop the independence of Lithuania,-11 January: US Congress authorizes President Bush to attack Iraq,-Gulf war, Iraq launches 45 SCUD missiles on Israel,-1 February: South Africa, end of apartheid,-9 April: Georgia declares the independence,-21 May: India, Rajiv Gandhi killed,-25 June: Croatia, Slovenia independent,-6 August: www,-19 August: coup in USSR, solved by Eltsin,-26 December: URSS disbanded

Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991-June: eruption, 1.000 dead, 1 million homeless,-US military bases: Subic Bay (75 km from the volcano) and Clark (25 km),-everything transferred to USA, Guam, Okinawa, Hawaii,-Clark Mil Base (633 km2, built in 1903 after the war with Spain) destroyed,-Subic Bay Naval Base to the local Government,-huge ash cloud up to Russia and North America,-in other times: no operations during WWII and Vietnam conflict,-in August 1945: no “Enola Gay” to Hiroshima

Lessons Learned:-volcanic eruptions influence military operations (projection of power),

-volcanic eruptions can change the History,

2005

Historical frameworkHistorical framework

• 2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003)2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003)• 10 January: Abu Mazen replaces Arafat10 January: Abu Mazen replaces Arafat• Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory

military servicemilitary service• Karol Wojtyla dies, Josef Ratzinger electedKarol Wojtyla dies, Josef Ratzinger elected• Viktor Yushenko President of UkraineViktor Yushenko President of Ukraine• Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no

USA)USA)• 28 March: earthquake off Sumatra28 March: earthquake off Sumatra• 7 July: terroristic attacks in London,7 July: terroristic attacks in London,• 23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims• Piracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden eruptsPiracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden erupts

Anatahan, Pacific, 2005

-200 miles north of Guam,

-ash cloud: temporary closure of Andersen Base, Guam,

-strategic importance of Guam

Projection of power,9 out of 15 Mariana Islands have active volcanos (1 eruption every 5 years)

Lessons Learned:

-Andersen Air Base (Guam) in danger like Clark,

-USA: “Volcano Hazards Program” (USGS and Southern Methodist University), a 250.000 USD project monitorizing volcanic activities in SE Asia,

-creation of an Early Warning System

Eyjafjallayokull, 2010

1940Battle ofEngland

1944, Montecassino

1945Dresda

1948-49Berlin Air Bridge

Lessons Learned:- volcanic eruptions can influence military operations

-… change the outcome of wars,

-… endanger civil aviation,

-… stop air traffic

Grimsvotn, IcelandGrimsvotn, IcelandMay 2011May 2011

Suggestions for Thesis:Suggestions for Thesis:

• How Crises influence How Crises influence international politics: the case of international politics: the case of volcanic eruptionsvolcanic eruptions

• What if? The case of a possible What if? The case of a possible tsunami in the Mediterraneantsunami in the Mediterranean

Crisis Management and Crisis Management and PreventionPrevention

(Management of Crises in case of Floods (Management of Crises in case of Floods and Volcanic Eruptions)and Volcanic Eruptions)

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni Marizzagianni.marizza@yahoo.itgianni.marizza@yahoo.it

14 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,0014 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,00