uos-cpdrc - european demographic trends
TRANSCRIPT
European Demographic TrendsWith a focus on the second demographic transition and policy implications of population ageing.Bradley Tombleson19 July 2016
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Southampton
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Role:
Me: From:
International AmbassadorStudyin
g:
About me
BSc Population & Geography
City of Southampton
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Outline• Fertility
– Trends; Explanations; Future prospects• Mortality
– Trends; Inequalities (focus on UK)• Population Ageing
– Trends; Policy implications– Active Ageing Index (AAI)
Fertility
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Period fertility trends
Source: Frejka and Sobotka (2008)
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Fertility Decline: Explanation• Second Demographic Transition (Van de Kaa and
Lesthaeghe, 1986). Low fertility due to:– Female education– Ideational changes (individualism, autonomy)– Career aspirations
• ‘The family’ is now less important• New behaviours:
– Divorce & (non-marital) cohabitation– Delay of marriage/childbearing; childlessness– Childbearing outside of marriage
Source: Lesthaeghe (2010); Vitali and Mendola (2014)
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Mean age at childbearing
Source: Rindfuss and Brauner-Otto (2008)
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Issues with current (period) data
• TFR – Vulnerable to distortions /‘tempo shocks’
• Lack of cohort data (such as CFR)
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Postponement and fecundity• Infertility: a consequence of postponement• Later childbearing may cause lower TFR
49 years DEATH
15 years
Decision
Reproductive Lifespan
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Childlessness
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Voluntary or Involuntary?• ‘Voluntary’ childlessness:
– Cost of living– Career Aspirations– Time in education– Shortage of partners
• Involuntary childlessness:– Infertility– But: Assisted Reproductive
Technology (ART)
Source: Berrington (2015)
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The Forerunners?Eastern Europe;
‘Turkey’
Southern Europe; Germany
Northern Europe;Sweden
Source: Esping-Andersen and Billari (2015)
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Refugee Crises and Fertility
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“Brexit” and FertilityCurrent affairs and fertility expectations...
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Fertility: Summary• Decreasing• “Diverse, delayed & below-replacement”
(Frejka & Sobotka, 2005)• New behaviours & childlessness• Heterogeneity across Europe• Uncertain future
– ‘Low Fertility Trap’?
Mortality
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Life expectancy• Universal decreases in mortality• LE has subsequently increased
Source: Bongaarts (2014)
Inequalities: UK
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Inequality at Younger Ages• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR):
– Deaths < first birthday– 4 per 1,000 live births (ONS, 2013)
• Risk factors:– Age of mother at birth– Mother’s smoking status– Low birth weight
Source: ONS (2015); World Bank (2016)
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Inequality at Younger Ages
Source: Viner et al. (2014)
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Gender differential
Gender differential: Cause
Source: ONS (2015b)
Inequalities: Europe
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Mortality: Summary• Universal decline in mortality• Universal increase in LE• Inequality
– By gender (biological & behavioural)– By region
• Different causes of death– Cancer & age-related diseases
A “Grey” Europe
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Global Ageing
Source: ONS (2013) [Statistical bulletin: Estimates of the Very Old (including Centenarians), 2002-2012]
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Global Ageing
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Rise of the Centenarian
Source: OECD (2016] [“Territorial Reviews: Japan 2016”]
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Negative Perspective• Burden of pensions (and age-related services)• Labour force shrinkage• Healthy life expectancy dilemma
– Measured through: the need for assistance with ADLs:
• Compression/expansion of morbidity• Living alone (& care provision issues)
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Policy Implications: Theory• Pensions Policy
– Preventing poverty in old age– Income to match living standards of working life
• Fiscal Policy– Economic expansion; structural adjustment; welfare state
• Labour market Policy– Economically Active : Economically Inactive
(Employed : Unemployed/retired)
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Policy Implications: Reality• Pensions Policy
– Retirement Age: UK; Germany; Denmark– Malus / Bonus: ~All– Personal contributions: Poland; Slovakia– Privatisation: Italy; Poland
• Fiscal Policy– Deficit: All (Ireland; Greece)
• Labour market Policy– Imminent challenges: All (Poland; Slovakia; Greece;
Bulgaria)
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Positive Perspective• It’s not all bad, if:
– Individuals are able to remain ‘active’ in old age(economically and/or socially)
• Active Ageing Index (AAI) [Asghar Zaidi, UoS]
39Source: http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/AAI/Active+Ageing+Index+Home
40Source: http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/AAI/Active+Ageing+Index+Home
‘Northern’ Europe
‘Central’/’Western’ Europe
‘Eastern’ Europe
Summary
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Summary• Fertility holds a less certain future, compared to
mortality.
• Demographic trends are heterogeneous across Europe – particularly given recent regional events.
• Ageing has the capacity to bring great challenges, but its impact may be lessened… Providing policy adapts soon!