new york state demographic trends
TRANSCRIPT
New York StateDemographic Trends
New York State Office for the AgingDepartment of State
Bob Scardamalia
NYS Dept. of Economic Development
September 4, 2008
• Demographic Forces Shaping New York’s Population
• Migration and Regional Patterns
• Age and Diversity
• Dependency and Housing
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Historical Population ChangeU.S. and New York State, 1930 to 2007
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
Perc
en
t C
han
ge
High Foreign Immigration Baby Boom Growth Declining Fertility
Immigration Quotas Rural/Urban Migration Economic Downturn
High Foreign Immigration/Baby Boom Echo/Improved Economy
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Percent Change, 2000 to 2007
8.2
1.7
0.1
2.1
24.5
2.6
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
US
Arizona
NYS
Upstate
Downstate
Iowa
Percent
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Components of Population Change
New York, 1960 to 2007
-400
-200
0
200
400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Th
ou
san
ds
Change Births Deaths Net M igr.
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Migration and Regional Patterns
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
In-Migrants to New York by Origin,
All Ages, 1995 to 2000
Foreign
49%
Florida
5%M idwest
6% Other So. States
12%
California
5%
Other NE State
12%
New Jersey
7%
Other West.
States
4%
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Out-Migrants from New York by Destination,
All Ages, 1995 to 2000
New Jersey
13%
California
6%
Other West.
States
7% Other So. States
28%
Florida
19%
M idwest
8%Other NE States
19%
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Out-Migrants 65 and Over,
Selected Destinations, 1995 to 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Upstate Dow nstate Total
Florida and Southern States New Jersey and NE States
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Age and Diversity
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Population Pyramid
New York State 2030
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Male
Female
Population Pyramid
New York State 2000
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Male
Female
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Growth in the Elderly Population, 2000 to 2030
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
65 and Over 85 and Over
Pe
rce
nt
United States New York State Upstate Downstate
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Cornell Program on Applied Demographics
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Percent Change by Race and Hispanic Origin,
Population 65 and Over, 2000 to 2007
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
New York State Downstate Upstate
Hispanic White Alone Black Alone Asian Alone
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Dependency and Housing
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Living Arrangements of Persons 65 and Over,
New York State, 2000
Group Quarters
6%
Living Alone
30%
Family
Households
62%
Other Non-
relatives
2%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Homeownership of Householders
65 and Over, 2006
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Householder 65+ Ow ner Householder 65+ Ow ner 65+ Alone
New York State Dow nstate Upstate
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Percent of the 65 and Over Population with
Various Disabilities, New York State, 2000
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Physical Mental Self-Care Go Outside the
Home
Perc
en
t
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Caregivers: Traditional Supply and Demand
2000 to 2030
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Women 25 to 54 Population 65 and Over
Perc
en
t C
han
ge
New York State Upstate Downstate
Source: Cornell Program on Applied Demographics
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Dependency Ratio, New York State 1950 to 2030
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1950 1980 2000
2030
1950 1980 2000 2030 1950 1980 2000 2030
Youth (Ages 0 to 19) Aged (Ages 65 and Over) Overall
Robert Scardamalia, NYS Department of Economic Development, 9-4-08
Bob Scardamalia
NYS Dept. of Economic Development
Center for Research and
Information Analysis
(518) 292-5309