trends in higher education: changes that may affect your

Trends in Higher Education: Changes That May Affect Your Career

Laura W. Perna, Ph.D.

Graduate School of Education November 7, 2013

Laura W. Perna

Current Trends n Increasing focus on completion n Changing demographics n Changes in higher education finance n Challenges of academic readiness n Growth in contingent faculty n Emergence of new technology n Globalization

The Completion Agenda Importance of educational attainment to international competitiveness

Source: Baum, S., Ma, J., & Payea, K. (2010). Education Pays. Washington, DC: College Board.

Higher Education Is Increasingly Important To Individual AND Societal Well-Being

Salaries Increase with Educational Attainment

Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (2010). Help wanted. Washington, DC: Georgetown Center for Workforce and the Economy.

Growing Demand for College-Educated Workers

Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (2010). Help wanted. Washington, DC: Georgetown Center for Workforce and the Economy.

College Completion Rates are Low

And Vary Across Groups

60% 54%

44%

33%

50% 41%

68% 61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

White Women

White Men

Black Women

Black Men

Hispanic Women

Hispanic Men

Asian Women

Asian Men

Six-Year Bachelor’s Degree Completion Rates for Students Who First Entered Public 4-Year Institutions Full-Time in 2002

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2012). Digest of Education Statistics 2011. Washington, DC: Author.

Growing Calls for Accountability

Changing Demographics: Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity

Source: WICHE (2012). Knocking on the college door. Boulder, CO: Author.

White

Hispanic

Black

Asian American Indian

Percent of Adults Who Hold

At Least a Bachelor’s Degree

28% 31%

18% 13%

49%

14%

Total White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian

Persons Age 25 and Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Race/Ethnicity, 2009


Distribution of Undergraduate Students by Age: Fall 2009

Under Age 24 67 %

Age 25 to 49 29 %

Age 50+ 3%


Laura W. Perna

Trends in Higher Education Finance

Increasing Privatization

Note: Dollars adjusted by 2012 HECA, Cost of Living Adjustment, and Enrollment Mix Index. Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers. SHEF FY2012.

Public Resources Constrained into the Future -2

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Projected State and Local Budget Deficit as a Percent of Revenues, 2016

Source: Boyd, D. (2009). Unpublished analyses conducted for the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

Increasing Use of Loans

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

1995-96 1999-00 2003-04 2007-08

For-profit 4-year private 4-year public 2-year public

Percent of Undergraduates Borrowing: 1995-96 to 2007-08

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2011). Trends in student financing of undergraduate education: Selected years. Washington, DC: Author.

Growth in Cumulative Debt

13,000 15,000 14,700 15,700

21,100 22,400 20,500

24,200

18,200

24,700 23,100

26,100

Federal loans Total Non- Pell recipients

Pell recipients

1992-93 1999-2000 2007-08

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2013). Degrees of Debt, Student Borrowing and Loan Repayment of Bachelor’s Degree Recipients Selected years. Washington, DC: Author.

Average Cumulative Debt Among Bachelor’s Degree Recipients By Loan Type and Pell Recipient Status, 2009

Percent of Undergraduates Who Work While Enrolled

40

15 17

7

40

14 19

7

40

15 17

7

Total Employed Less than 20 Hours per week

20 to 34 hours per week

35 or more hours per week

Total 2- year 4- year

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2012). The Condition of Education. Washington, DC: Author.

Percentage of 16- to 24-year old Full-Time Students Who Were Employed, October 2010

Laura W. Perna

Bachelor’s Degree Completion Declines as Hours Worked/Week Increase above 15

59%69%

82%

63%

51%

29%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Total 0 hours 1-15 hours 16-20 hours 21-30 hours More than 30hoursSource: Perna, Cooper, & Li (in press).

Percentage of 1995-96 First-Time Freshmen who Attained a Bachelor's Degree by 2001 by Number of Hours Worked Per Week

Challenges with Academic Readiness

Academic Readiness Often Inadequate

24% 21%

15% 13%

26%

2-year public 4-year public 4-year private Very selective Open admission

Percentage of first-year undergraduates who took at least one remedial course in 2007-08

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2013, January). First-year undergraduate remedial coursetaking. Statistics in brief. Washington, DC: Author.

Differential Access to Academic Resources in K-12 Education

69%

43% 40%

27% 25%

49%

37% 34%

Asian White Hispanic Black American Indian

< 25% 26% to 50%

More than 50%

Percentage of 2009 Public H.S. Graduates Who Earned Credits in Dual Credit, AP, or IB Courses

Student Race/Ethnicity % Students Eligible for Free/Reduced Lunch

Source: NCES (2012). Digest of Education Statistics 2011. Washington, DC: Author.

Laura W. Perna

Characteristics of the Nation’s Faculty

Where Do Faculty Work?

69%

28%

3%

69%

31%

63%

28%

8%

72%

28%

Public Private not-for-profit

Private for-profit

Four-year Two-year

Distribution of Instructional Faculty in Degree-Granting Institutions by Institutional Type

1999 2009

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2012). Digest of Education Statistics 2011. Washington, DC.

Laura W. Perna

What Share of Faculty are Full-Time?

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1970

19

71

1972

19

73

1974

19

75

1976

19

77

1979

19

80

1981

19

82

1983

19

84

1985

19

86

1987

19

89

1991

19

93

1995

19

97

1999

20

01

2003

20

05

2007

20

09

Percent of Instructional Faculty in Degree-Granting Institutions Employed Full-time:

1970 to 2009


Laura W. Perna

Average Salaries of Full-Time Faculty

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

1970

19

75

1979

19

80

1981

19

82

1984

19

85

1987

19

89

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2001

20

02

2003

20

04

2005

20

06

2007

20

08

2009

20

10

Average Salary of Full-Time Instructional Faculty on 9-Month Contracts in Degree-Granting

Institutions, 1970 to 2010 (constant 2009 dollars)

Public 4-year Private 4-year


Laura W. Perna

Percentage of Institutions With Tenure Systems

91% 100% 99%

72% 58% 60%

84% 66%

47%

13% 1%

Percentage of Institutions with Tenure Systems 1993-94 1999-00 2009-10


Public Private Not-for-Profit

Laura W. Perna

Race/ethnicity of Full-Time Faculty: 2009

75.6%

5.4% 3.8% 8.2% 0.5% 2.2% 4.2%

White Black Asian Hispanic American Indian

Unknown Non-resident alien

Full-Time Instructional Faculty in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/ethnicity


Laura W. Perna

Gender of Full-Time Faculty by Rank: 2009

43% 28%

41% 49% 55% 53% 49%

Total Professor Associate professor

Assistant professor

Instructor Lecturer Other

Representation of Women Among Full-Time Instructional Faculty by Rank


Laura W. Perna

New Technology

Laura W. Perna

Growing Enrollment in For-Profits

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1970

19

75

1980

19

85

1990

19

95

2000

20

04

2005

20

06

2007

20

08

2009

20

10

Public 4-year Private NFP 4-year For-profit 4-year

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2012). Digest of Education Statistics. Washington, DC: Author.

Distribution of Total Enrollment in Four-Year Degree-Granting Institutions by Institutional Type

Participation in Distance Education

22

19

16

12

3

12

2 3

Public 2-year For-profit Public 4-year Private nonprofit 4-year

Course Degree Program

Percentage of Undergraduates Participating in Distance Education by Type of Institution, 2007-2008

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2011). Learning at a Distance: Undergraduate Enrollment in Distance Education Courses. Selected years. Washington, DC: Author.

Characteristics of Undergraduates Participating in Distance Education

44

22

34

17

38

45

Age 23 or younger

24-29 30 or older Not employed

Employed part-time

Employed full-time

Distribution of Undergraduates Enrolled in A Distance education Course by Age & Employment Status, 2007-2008

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2011). Learning at a Distance: Undergraduate Enrollment in Distance Education Courses. Selected years. Washington, DC: Author.

Globalization

Laura W. Perna

Growth in Foreign Study

Laura W. Perna

Source: OECD (2013). Education at a Glance.

Common Destination Nations for Foreign Study

Laura W. Perna


Common Origin Nations of Foreign Students

Laura W. Perna


Laura W. Perna

trends in higher education: changes that may affect your

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