top 10 option hacks for quick income
TRANSCRIPT
TOP 10 OPTION
HACKS FOR QUICK
INCOME
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Thank you for accessing Top 10 Options Hacks for Quick Income. This book is designed for
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4 Easy Steps to Find the Right Options Trade
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TABLET OF CONTENTS
4 STEPS TO FINDING THE RIGHT OPTIONS TRADE
By Mike Rykes, www.NetPicks.com
THE SECRET TO GENERATING RETIREMENT INCOME WITH OPTIONS
By Peter Schultz, www.CashflowHeavenPublishing.com
OPTION TRADING GUIDELINES
By Lawrence McMillan, www.OptionStrategist.com
MONTHLY INCOME OPTIONS STRATEGY
By Ron Groenke, www.WallStreetWinning.com
COMBAT TRADE PLANNING
By Matt Buckley, www.TopGunOptions.com
READING ORDERFLOW FOR UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY
By James Ramelli, www.AlphaSharkTrading.com
PREDICTING MAJOR MARKET MOVES
By John Seville, www.AcornWealthCorp.com
HOW TO USE STRADDLES TO TRADE OPTIONS
By Kim Klaiman, www.SteadyOptions.com
BEST ADVICE FOR OPTIONS TRADERS
By Michael McNellis. www.Key2Options.com
MY 27% WEEKLY OPTION STRATEGY
By Ryan Jones, www.SmartTrading.com
4 Steps to Finding The Right Options Trade By Mike Rykes, www.NetPicks.com
One of the benefits of working with hundreds of options students on a daily basis is the great
interaction that comes along with it. In fact, I had a newer student recently write in and ask a few
really great questions. These are questions many traders wonder about as they look to gain an
edge in their options trading. Let’s take a look at how the answers to these questions can help us
increase our profitability in the options markets.
“How do YOU determine when to buy a call or put versus using a spread, collar, butterfly, or
iron condor? What are the criteria you are using to make the decision?"
The number one reason I love trade options is the flexibility that they offer. We aren’t limited to
buying and selling calls and puts. We can actually use different options strategies that will allow
us to adjust how aggressive we want to be. To take it a step further, we can use different
strategies to adjust whether we want to be bullish, bearish, or market neutral. You can’t say this
about any other market. If you are trading futures, Forex, or stocks you are limited to buying or
selling individual contracts, lots, or shares. This is fine if you want to put on a directional trade,
but we all know that the market doesn’t always trend. In fact, more often than not we are stuck in
a sideways range. Trading options allow us to profit from these sideways moves instead of
getting whipped back and forth with false breakouts.
While the flexibility that options offer is great, it can be intimidating when starting out to know
which strategy is best to use at any given time. Over the last 13 years, I have taken thousands of
trades and have tracked each one in my trade journal. As a result, I have come up with a method
that fits my trading style and makes sure the odds are in my favor long term. Let’s walk through
what my normal process looks like when setting up a trade.
Steps for Identifying Options Trades:
1. Have a small universe of stocks/ETF’s that you look at on a regular basis.
I write and talk about this all the time in our training materials. I don’t want to look at
hundreds of names on a daily or weekly basis because in those cases you can be left
trading names that you aren’t familiar with. I would rather focus on a small list of names
that I get to know over time. This way I can easily determine whether I am bullish,
bearish, or neutral without spending a ton of time each day staring at the charts. My
watch list can change once a month. Currently, my list is 24 names which you will see
below. These 24 names come from my universe of 50 stocks and ETF’s that I track on a
monthly basis. In other words, when I created my watch list of 24 names for the month,
those names came from my universe of 50 products that I have tracked and researched for
an extended stretch of time.
We will share more insight into my favorite Stocks/ETF’s below including a great list
that you can start trading today.
2. Look at the charts for each product on your watch list to get a feel for any key
levels, directional outlook, or overbought/oversold extremes.
This step is very important in helping you determine which options strategy should be
used. For example, we just closed out of a short call spread on EWZ that we opened back
on 4/13. We chose this trade because we looked at the EWZ chart and saw that we were
at a bullish extreme. We then took a look at the level of implied volatility on the EWZ
options and saw that it was also high. When we see this type of scenario, we know that
the options prices will also be high. Instead of buying a put option to take advantage of a
move lower, we decided to sell a call spread which is still a bearish position but it also
gave us more ways of making money.
We decided to sell the May 29/30 call spread for $.41 or $41 per spread. This gave us a
maximum profit potential of $41 per spread while our risk was $49 per spread. While this
doesn’t look like the greatest reward to risk scenario, it was actually a great trade because
of all the different ways we could have made money. We made money if EWZ moved
lower, sideways, or slightly higher as long as it stayed below our break-even point of
$29.41. We made money from time decay adding up and also from the implied volatility
contracting. This meant we had 5 different ways of making money on the trade. Instead
of having to pick market direction perfectly in order to make money, we were left with a
trade that gave us a tremendous amount of flexibility.
We were fortunate enough that after opening the short call spread, a few weeks later
EWZ made a move slightly lower. The levels of implied volatility also contracted and the
time decay added up over the few weeks that we held the trade. As a result, we ended up
closing the trade by buying the call spread back for $.11. This gave us a profit of $.30 or
$30 per spread. That’s a nice return given we only tied up $49 of capital for each spread
that we put on.
The only way I had a feel for using the EWZ short call spread was because I have traded
EWZ for years. This gave me a comfort level with the ETF that I wouldn’t have had if I
just pulled it up off a stock scan. Looking at the charts will help us determine how
aggressive we want to be. If we are strongly bullish or bearish then we can reflect that in
both position size and the options strategy that we will use. If we are neutral then we can
also adjust position size and go to options strategies that work well in sideways moves.
3. Look at the levels of volatility to determine if it’s high or low.
We track the Implied Volatility (IV) levels for each stock/ETF on our watch list. This
helps us know if those levels are high or low at the given time. If the IV is high, then we
know we have an opportunity to sell premium (short vertical spreads, iron condors). If
it’s low, then we will lean towards using strategies like long calls/puts and long vertical
spreads. My first choice is always to sell premium because those strategies give us so
many ways of being profitable. However, we have also seen over the years that when we
wait for high IV when selling premium our odds of success really improve.
4. Determine which options strategy best fits our outlook. \
We started by looking at the charts of each of the products on our watch list. This helped
us decide if we wanted to be bullish, bearish, or neutral.This also helped determine how
aggressive we want to be (position size, option strategy). Once we have an opinion on
what we think the stock or ETF is going to do, then we go to our playbook to follow the
guidelines that we outline for each strategy. Let’s take a look at a few of our favorite
strategies.
What criteria do we use to select the best options to trade?
Long call or put:
When buying a long call or put we need to make sure we have a strong opinion on which
way the stock or ETF is headed in the near term. We have to keep in mind that whenever
we buy an option the clock is ticking the second we decide to initiate the trade. The time
decay will start to add up and potentially eat into the profit potential that we have. This
means not only do we need to be right on market direction, but the move needs to happen
in our favor quick enough.
To combat some of the negative features of buying an option, we like to be very picky
with the criteria that we use when selecting the call or put option. First, we don’t pick the
option based on what we can afford like so many retail traders make the mistake of
doing. In many cases, this will leave you with an out of the money option which has a
very low probability of success. Instead, we like to trade the in the money options.
Our criteria have us going out 20-40 days until expiration and buying the call or put
option that is 1-2 strikes in the money. This criterion is the same whether we are trading
GOOGL, DIA, or C. By using the same criteria on all stocks and ETF’s, we are able to
take much of the discretionary decisions out of the equation.
Long Vertical Spread:
When using a long vertical spread, we still need to have a strong opinion on which way
the stock or ETF is heading in the near term. While the time decay is still going to be
there like with a long call or put, the long vertical spread is able to limit the effect of the
time decay slightly. We like to use the long vertical spread when we desire to be in a
more conservative position. We are able to do this because a long spread is constructed
by both buying an option and selling an option with a different strike at the same time.
Vertical spreads offer a unique ability to control risk and reward by allowing us to
determine our maximum gain, maximum loss, break-even price, maximum return on
capital, and the odds of having a winning trade, all at the time we open a position.
When setting up a long vertical spread we still like to trade the options that have
between 20-40 days left until expiration. We structure the trade by always buying the
option that is 1 strike in the money and then selling the strike that is closest to our
target for that stock or ETF in the near term. The nice part about using this simple
criterion is that it is the same when using call or put options. The criteria are also the
same regardless of the symbol of the stock we are trading.
So why wouldn’t we trade a spread on every trade? While it's great that vertical spreads
limit the risk, they also limit the profit potential at the same time. Our profit is limited to
the difference between the strike prices minus what we paid for the trade. For example, if
we are putting on the long 25/30 call spread that would have us buying the 25 call and
then selling the 30 call. This leaves us with a $5 wide call spread. If we paid $2.00 for the
spread our maximum profit potential would be $3.00. This is calculated by taking the $5
difference between the strikes and subtracting the $2.00 price that we paid for the spread.
Many newer traders get intimidated by trading spreads because they think they will be
left with huge risk. However, in reality, the long vertical spread is actually safer than
buying an outright call or put. The reason for this is that we can never lose more than
what we paid for the vertical spread. It is a defined risk trade. This is due to the fact that
we are buying the option that is one strike in the money and at the same time offsetting
some of that cost by selling the option that is farther out of the money. As a result, we are
able to lower the overall cost of the trade.
The long vertical spread is one of my favorite trade types and should be a part of your
overall options toolbox.
Short Vertical Spread:
Trading long calls and puts or a long vertical spread give us great ways to put on an
aggressive trade when we have a strong opinion on market direction in the near term.
What if we are a little less certain of market direction? Selling vertical spreads to open a
position can give us a great way of scratching out a profit even in a period of choppy
price action. We do this by selling an option that is closer to the current price of the stock
and then going out and buying an option with a strike price that is farther out of the
money. By doing this we are still able to be in a risk defined position but it does give us
multiple ways of being profitable. Let’s take a look at the criteria that we use when
setting these trades up.
When selling vertical spreads to open a trade we still like to use options with between 20-
40 days left until expiration. Why do we prefer to go out farther in time? In most cases
the monthly options will have more volume and open interest when compared to the
weekly options. This will make them easier to trade.
Going out to the monthly options will also give us more time to be right just in case the
market moves against us initially. This gives us time to recover while the weekly options
don’t give us that flexibility.
When selling spreads, we like to collect as close to 40% of the width of the spread as
possible. For example, if SPY is currently trading at $204.76 and we wanted to put on a
bearish trade to take advantage of a pullback we could sell a call spread. We would look
at the available strike prices to see that they are $1 wide. This means we could go out and
sell a $1 wide spread that would allow us to collect around $.40 or $40 per spread (40%
of the width of the spread). This $40 is our maximum profit potential. The most we can
lose on this trade is $.60 or $60 per spread.
When looking at the SPY options, we see that the 208/209 call spread is trading for $.40
or $40 per spread. This would have us selling the 208 call and then buying the 209 call to
make it a risk defined position. Since we are collecting $.40 when putting the trade on,
we would add that to our short strike to give us a break-even point of $208.40.
Why would we risk $60 to make $40? That doesn’t sound like a very good risk to reward
ratio. The reason we would like a trade like this is it would allow us to make money 5
different ways:
1. We make money if SPY moves higher as long as price closes below $208.40.
2. We make money if SPY moves lower.
3. We make money if SPY moves sideways as long as price closes below
$208.40.
4. We make money as the time decay adds up each day that we hold the trade.
5. We make money if the implied volatility contracts.
When I see a trade that allows me to make money in 5 different directions I get excited.
These are the opportunities that I look for each and every day.
We like to close out of our short vertical spreads when we can keep 50-75% of the
maximum profit potential. In our case of the short SPY call spread, we collected $.40.
When I can buy the trade back for between $.10-$.20 I will close the trade out and book
my profit.
It’s important to note that the criteria outlined above is the same for both short call
spreads and put spreads. By staying consistent with a rule set it allows us to be more
consistent and eliminate much of the discretionary decisions that so many retail trades get
stuck on.
Selling vertical spreads to open positions is a very powerful approach that many retail
traders miss out on. While short spreads are not the holy grail of trading, they give us the
flexibility that we need to make money in any type of market condition that comes our
way.
Is there a perfect recipe for finding the right trade?
Selecting the right trade and determining the right size of the trade is not always a perfect
science. There are times when I want to be conservative, so I trade more spreads and use smaller
position size and end up leaving profit on the table. The whole goal here is to have a method in
place that you can follow every day. We aren’t going to be perfect on every trade but by
following a method we will be sure to have trades on that leave us with risk that we are
comfortable with. The key is to follow a set of criteria that put the odds in your favor and then
diversify your account by adding numerous trades that fit your criteria. When doing so, you
won’t be backing yourself into a corner by putting on 2-3 trades and hoping for the best. By
having a bigger sample set of trades then the odds will better play out in the long run.
Which stocks and ETF’s should I be trading?
Now that we have talked through how we identify trade opportunities, let’s circle back and talk
about how we establish the best watch list of products that we should be looking at on a regular
basis. With thousands of possible stocks and ETF’s available to trade, I’m often asked how I
decide which ones to trade. It’s really a simple process based on a few criteria. The hot list that I
trade from each and every day is based on the criteria that I outline below.
1. Liquid Options – I want to trade the products with the most actively traded options. This
way I can get in and out quickly at good prices.
2. Volatility – I’m looking for products that show a history of good movement back and
forth. Ideally, I’m looking for quick moves so I can get in and out as soon as possible. A
stock or ETF that only makes a few decent moves each year is not going to make the cut
into my hot list.
3. Diversification – It would be really easy for me to load up my entire list with tech names
and call it a day. The tech sector tends to lead the market and has an endless number of
quality names to trade. However, I would rather establish a broad list of names covering a
number of different sectors (tech, energy, financial, index are the big ones for me).
With the above criteria in mind, I have created the following watch list of products that give you
a diversified universe of products to trade.
Options Fast Track Hot List:
SPY - The S&P 500 ETF remains one of the most liquid products in the world. The massive
volume of the stock and the options make this an easy one to trade. The Implied Volatility has
also increased in the past few months which really opens up our options playbook giving us
endless trade opportunities to consider. Others to consider: IWM, DIA
QQQ - While not as liquid as SPY, the Nasdaq ETF has plenty of volume for us to work with.
It’s an easy way to diversify as many of the big tech names are reflected in this product. I like
this one for pure directional plays as well as for short premium plays (selling spreads).
TLT - With everyone’s focus on the Fed these days, I want to have exposure in names that will
be active with anything the Fed throws our way. The bond market is an area that can make big
moves with anything a Fed speaker says. As a result, having access to a bond ETF like TLT is a
great option. TLT is liquid enough for us to do anything that we want with either basic or
advanced options strategies. Implied Volatility has also increased in the past few months giving
us more flexibility.
AAPL - Apple is still one of the most popular stocks to trade for day traders and swing traders
alike. It is a very liquid product, with both the shares of stock and the options very active on a
daily basis. I like trading it because it doesn’t like to stay quiet for long. It is also an easy name
to see defined ranges in. While I love the products that Apple produces I like it as a trading
product even more.
NFLX - Netflix has been a really fun stock to trade for years now. It continues to make really
great swings back and forth. When it’s not moving, the Implied Volatility is high enough to sell
premium making it one of my favorite products to look at these days. The stock split from last
year has also made it more accessible for retail traders to look at. The options are reasonably
priced and have decent liquidity, making it a top candidate going forward.
C and GS - The financial sector is another area that can be very sensitive to Fed speak.
Regardless of experience or account size, you will want to have some exposure to this sector. I
like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs for my personal account. They are names that tend to lead the
sector both higher and lower and have reasonably priced options as well. The options have
decent liquidity, which means we can trade many different strategies with both of these and get
filled at good prices. As long as interest rates remain the center of attention, make sure you have
a handful of financial names on your list. Others to consider: XLF, BAC, JPM, FAS.
XLE and USO - The price of oil has been all over the place for most of this year and I don't see
that changing anytime soon. Both XLE and USO are energy ETF's that we have had nice success
within the Options Fast Track program. I like the liquidity in the options and I like how each one
does something different for us. XLE is the slower one of the two and it typically does a better
job of getting through the volatile moves back and forth better. USO is directly correlated with
the price of the Crude Oil futures market, which means it’s a more aggressive way to play
directional moves. Both products are liquid enough to do just about any options strategy that you
can think of.
EWZ, EEM, and FXI - All three of these are global ETF’s which we have had nice success
with. EWZ is the ETF tracking the Brazil markets. EEM is the ETF that tracks the emerging
markets. FXI is the ETF that tracks the Chinese markets. Much of the volatility that we have
seen in the U.S. this year can also be tracked to the movement in the global markets. I like
having products that allow us to participate in that movement without being overly exposed to
one individual stock. You have to be careful with these names as they do tend to see overnight
gaps for us in the U.S. A good number of the moves happen during the overnight hours so you
have to be disciplined to not chase trades that have moved without you. The liquidity in these
names also tends to be streaky. Over the last few months it hasn’t been an issue, but if markets
start to settle down in the coming months you will want to watch volumes closely. If they start to
go down we will want to potentially reconsider some of these names.
AMZN - Amazon has been a streaky product for us the last few years. When it’s on there aren’t
many products out there that will outperform AMZN. However, when this stock settles into a
range it can get ugly quickly. The liquidity in the AMZN options also needs to be watched
closely. I haven’t had an issue getting filled on my trades at good prices the last few months but
if volume does dry up in the coming months we are willing to put this one back on the sidelines.
It is a $600 stock so the options aren’t cheap, but I have had really nice success trading vertical
spreads on AMZN which is a good way to lower the cost.
GOOGL - I know Google is another expensive stock, but I have found that it likes to make really
nice tradable moves back and forth on a regular basis. This is another product that I like to use
vertical spreads on to lower the cost of the trades. However, it is also another one that you have
to be picky where you get in and out of trades at. The bid/ask spread can widen out quickly on
the GOOGL options, so make sure you do your best to get filled at or near the mid price.
AAL, BA, DAL - The airlines have been a new area to my watch list this year. I like any of these
3 names but I personally trade AAL and BA. I don’t always trade these names directionally,
though. For newer options traders, what I'm talking about here is that I like to sell premium on
these 3 whenever possible. Selling spreads is a great way to get exposure to some of these names
without placing a big directional bet. With energy prices all over the place, along with the health
of the consumer in doubt, I think the airlines could be a good play for the coming months.
GLD - Gold and silver tend to be names that get more active as more doubt starts to creep back
into the market. When fear jumps, there are many traders that start looking at the metals for
safety. I like GLD over SLV in my own trading as GLD tends to be more liquid and easier to
trade. If we continue to see volatility at elevated levels, look for Gold and Silver to remain
active.
FXE - With global currencies in focus these days I also want to have some exposure there. FXE
is an ETF that tracks the Euro. It’s not the most liquid product that I have ever traded, but as long
as we see the global currency wars front and center I want to be able to profit from some of these
moves. The implied volatility on the options of FXE has also been at levels where we have had
good success selling premium by using strategies like Iron Condors. I hope to continue that trend
over the coming months.
These are some of my favorite names that I continue to find great success within the current
market conditions . I’m not saying these are the only names to look at or that you should trade
every one of these. However, taking what the market is giving us right now, these are the areas
I feel give us the best opportunities to make money. If you want some other areas to look at the
argument could be made to have exposure to more retail/consumer related names or even the
social media names. Just remember, a bigger watch list doesn’t mean bigger profits. Create a list
of names that is diversified, but is also small enough where you can get in and out each day
without spending hours looking at the charts. All of the names listed above are active enough to
where we can have multiple types of trades on for each name if we wanted to.
As is the case with any trading approach the key is having a system that you can stay
disciplined too. Swaying in the wind with everything you hear in the media these days or from
other traders can lead to inconsistent results. Every trader is a little different, so make sure you
are using a method that fits your style and risk tolerance. This might take time to develop your
methodology but in the end, it will make all the difference in the world. It’s so important that if
you don’t have a system in place now then take a big step back and don’t put any more money
to work until that system is in place. You will see the benefits right away not only in your P/L
but in your confidence as a trader. In the end, trading is all about discipline. If you can become
that disciplined trader with a detailed system in place then you will be well on your way to
success.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike started trading back in 2002 as a finance major in college. It was
quickly apparent during one of his first business classes that there was great
wealth to be made in the stock market. Not one to be patient and wait for his
degree to start making money, Mike discovered the great leverage that can
be used in the options markets. This allowed him to start trading options
with a very small account size while still in college.
Mike found success early in his trading career and decided to take the leap into full time trading
soon after. Along the way, he had to learn many lessons the hard way like so many retail traders
can relate to. It wasn’t until a visit to the floor of the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange)
that he realized he had to put a system in place that he could stay disciplined to.
Mike discovered the NetPicks trading systems back in 2006 and quickly became a customer.
This was the missing piece to the puzzle. This has allowed him to trade full time for a living ever
since. After learning the systems inside and out over the span of the next 2 years, Mike joined the
NetPicks team as a trading coach in 2008. He quickly became the resident options expert and has
been Lead Options Instructor ever since. While he has dabbled in other markets over the years,
trading options has become his go to market. Mike has worked with thousands of traders since
2008 and enjoys the opportunity to help others reach their trading goals.
Option Trading Guidelines By Lawrence G. McMillan, www.OptionsStrategist.com
I was recently asked what guidelines I generally follow in my option trading. This is actually a
rather thought-provoking question, especially when it regards something one does almost every
day. In our feature articles, many useful general strategies have been given, but not assembled all
in one place. After giving the matter some thought, it seemed like it might be beneficial to list
some of the "rules" that we follow, either consciously or sub-consciously after all these years.
For the novice, they may be eye-opening; for the experienced option trader, they may serve as a
reminder. These guidelines are not the path to easy riches, or some such hype, but following
these guidelines will generally keep you out of trouble, increase your efficiency of capital, and
hopefully improve your chances of making money with options. They are not presented in any
particular order.
Trade in accordance with your comfort level and psychological
identity. If you are not comfortable selling naked options, then don't; even though such strategies are
nicely profitable for some traders, they should not be used if they cause you sleepless nights. If
hedged positions drive you crazy because you know you'll have a losing side as well as a
winning side, then perhaps you should trade options more as a speculator — forming opinions
and acting on them accordingly. The important thing to realize is that it is much easier to make
money if you are "in tune" with your strategies, whatever they may be. No one strategy is right
for all traders due to their individual risk and reward characteristics, and accompanying
psychological demands.
Always use a model. The biggest mistake that option traders make is failing to check the fair value of the option
before it is bought or sold. It may seem like a nuisance — especially if you or your broker don't
have real-time evaluation capability — but this is the basis of all strategic investments. You need
to know whether you're getting a bargain or paying too much for the option.
Don't always use options -- the underlying may be better (if options
are overpriced or markets are too wide). This is related to the previous rule. Sometimes it's better to trade the underlying stock or futures
contract rather than the options, especially if you're looking for a quick trade. Over a short time
period, an overpriced option may significantly underperform the movement by the underlying
instrument.
Buying an in-the-money call is often better than buying the
underlying instrument; buying an in-the-money put is usually better
than shorting the underlying (if the underlying is stock) An in-the-money option has a high delta, meaning that it moves nearly point-for-point with the
underlying stock or futures contract. Furthermore, the option's price contains only a small
amount of time value premium — the "wasting" part of the option asset. Thus, the profit
potential is very similar to that of the underlying instrument. Finally, the risk is limited by the
fact that one cannot lose more than the price he paid for the option, while one has much larger
risk when owning or shorting the underlying instrument.
Don't buy out-of-the-money options unless they're really cheap. This is really a corollary of the above rule, but it's important enough to state separately.
Obviously, you can't tell if the option is "cheap" unless you use a model. If the out-of-the-money
option is expensive, then revert to the previous rule and buy the in-the-money option.
Don't buy more time than you need. The longer-term options often appear, to the naked eye, to be better buys. For example, suppose
XYZ is 50, the Jan 50 call costs 2, and the Feb 50 call costs 2¾. One might feel that the Feb 50 is
the better buy, even if both have the same implied volatility (i.e., neither one is more expensive
than the other). This could be a mistake, especially if you're looking for a short-term trade. The
excess time value premium that one pays for the February call, and the resultant lower delta that
it has, both combine to limit the profits of the Feb 50 call vis-a-vis the Jan 50 call. On the other
hand, if you're looking for the stock or futures contract to move on fundamentals — perhaps
better earnings or a crop yield — then you need to buy more time because you don't know for
sure when the improving fundamentals will reflect themselves in the price of the underlying.
Know what strategies are equivalent and use the optimum one at all
times. Equivalent strategies have the same profit potential. For example, owning a call is equivalent to
owning both a put and the underlying instrument. However, the capital requirements of two
equivalent strategies (and their concomitant rates of return) can vary widely. The purchase of the
call will only cost a fraction of the amount needed to purchase the put and the underlying stock,
for example. However, the call purchase has a much larger probability of losing 100% of that
investment.
Naked put selling is equivalent to covered call writing, but is
generally a better strategy. We've mentioned this often before, but it bears repeating because so many option traders don't
follow this rule, or don't believe it. Both strategies — naked put selling and covered call writing
— have limited upside profit potential and large downside risk. However, the naked put sale
involves less of an investment in terms of collateral required, has a lower commission cost, and
allows one to earn interest on his collateral while the position is in place. For these reasons,
naked put selling is the better strategy of the two.
The option positions that are equivalent to long stock (or long
futures) and to short stock (or short futures) are perhaps the most
important ones. Buying a call and selling a put, both with the same terms (strike price and expiration date)
produces a position that is equivalent to being long the underlying instrument. Similarly, buying
a put and selling a call with the same terms is equivalent to being short the underlying
instrument. The next two rules deal with these equivalences.
The equivalent option strategy may be better than owning the
underlying stock itself. If one buys a call and sells a (naked) put, his investment is smaller than that required to own the
stock, and the "investment" may be in the form of interest-earning collateral.
The equivalent option strategy is mandatory knowledge for futures
traders, for it allows one to extricate himself from a position that is
locked limit against him. When futures are locked limit, the options will generally still be trading. The prices of the
options provide a price discovery mechanism, in that one can see where the futures would be
trading were they not locked at the limit. Furthermore, one can take an equivalent option position
opposite to his (losing) futures position, and effectively close out the position at the current loss
without risking further limit moves on succeeding days.
Naked combo selling in indices is usually less trouble than selling
combos in individual futures or equity options. Selling both puts and calls is an attractive strategy to many option traders, since the benefits of
the wasting asset are on your side. Unfortunately, large or sudden moves by the underlying
instrument can create some nasty surprises for the option writer. One way to counter this is to
concentrate the option selling in index options. The broader the index, the less likely it is to
experience a gap opening. There cannot be a takeover attempt on an index nor can an individual
earnings report, for example, cause the index to move a great distance as it can for a stock. For
the index to gap, many of the stocks that comprise the index would have to gap as well; that
might be possible in a very narrow-based index, but is quite unlikely in a broad-based one. These
statements generally apply to U.S. indices; indices on foreign markets (JPN or FSX, for
example) gap virtually every day since the actual trading in those markets is occurring while the
U.S. markets are closed.
Trade all markets. There are strategic option opportunities in all markets — equities, indices, and futures. To ignore
one or two of these just doesn't make sense. The same principles of option evaluation needed to
construct a statistically attractive strategy apply equally well to all three markets. Furthermore,
there are often inter-market hedges that are extremely reliable, but in order to take advantage of
them, one has to trade all of the markets.
Trade in accordance with your comfort level and psychological
identity. This is the first and last rule and, ultimately, the most important one.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Lawrence G. McMillan is the President of McMillan Asset
Management and McMillan Analysis Corporation, which he founded
in 1991. He is perhaps most well-known as the author of Options As a
Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options
strategies. The book – initially published in 1980 – is currently in its
fifth edition and is a staple on the desks of many professional option
traders.
His career has taken two simultaneous paths – one as a professional
trader and money manager, and the other as an educator and
proponent of using option strategies.
In these capacities, he currently authors and publishes "The Option Strategist," a derivative
products newsletter covering options and futures, now in its 24th year of publication. His firm
also edits and publishes three daily newsletters, as well as option letters for Dow Jones. He has
spoken on option strategies at many seminars and colloquia, and also occasionally writes for and
is quoted in financial publications regarding option trading.
Mr. McMillan is the recipient of the prestigious Sullivan Award for 2011, awarded by the
Options Industry Council in recognition of his contributions to the Options Industry.
A Better Way to Find and Trade Stocks By Ron Groenke, www.WallStreetWinning.com
Did you know that 69% of the new millionaires created last year are a result of the stock market?
It’s true. This is an opportunity that stands right before of you. Every day stocks go up and down
and someone makes a profit. The question is, how can you win in the stock market? I have been
working on this question for over twenty-five years and have finally developed the magic
formula (algorithm) that will help anyone become a winner on Wall Street. In fact I have made
my trade technology available for anyone to use at WallStreetWinning.com.
My career has been in the computer hardware, software, and communications industry. I have a
degree in mathematics and have developed many simulations and models to optimize almost
anything. The range has been from production/distribution, warehouse layout and computer
hardware to communications/networking software. I have written many programs, starting my
career at NASA writing code for handling the communications for Apollo 7 & 8. More recently I
have developed code that searches the Internet for excellent investment opportunities. I have won
Excellence in Engineering and Innovation awards and became a NCR Laureate. My product
ideas have generated billions of dollars in product revenue for multiple firms.
This base of knowledge has allowed me to develop a stock and options investing model that has
been used and perfected over the last ten years, which I am now revealing to you so that you can
also become a Wall Street winner.
To be successful in the stock market you need to take control and be in charge of how your
assets are invested. Would you like to spend less time analyzing and more time enjoying life?
It's time to stop giving the market permission to steal your hard-earned money. You can discover
for yourself how to produce amazing, consistent, and reliable investment results month after
month and year after year.
Contrary to popular belief, the biggest threat to your wealth is the age-old idea of ―buy and hold‖
investing. Millions of investors, possibly you included, have fallen prey to this antiquated, failed
system and have lost tens of thousands of hard-earned dollars. I want every investor to be on the
right side of every trade. Yes, the proprietary algorithms behind my system are complex, but I've
made it easy for you to use.
Just click a few buttons and the computer will get to work crunching all of the numbers. Within a
few minutes you’ll have a guide for a list of stocks and ETF’s that you can either invest in or let
the system AUTO trade for you directly. You will know:
Which Stocks to BUY? It’s time to BUY.
Which Stocks to SELL? Make sure to SELL
Which Stocks to HOLD? Do nothing. You’re fine or you can write covered calls against
your positions to generate some additional cash flow.
Which Stocks to WAIT on? Wait means wait.
Even with all of the fundamental analysis, price to earnings ratios, economic projections, news
events and TV talk shows on investing; all they tell you is where they ―think the market should
be.‖ Just remember, they are all just selling air-time.
It’s actually true that the market will tell you what it's going to do next. That's right, the market
will tell you everything you need to know, you just need to learn how to listen, which I’ll show
you how to do.
Does history repeat itself? Some say yes, some say no, others say everything is random.
My investing experience over the last twenty-five years has taught me that the stock market is
not random and that history does repeat itself. The key to investing success is to recognize this
and take advantage of it, which I have done very successfully.
By knowing what to look for and observing just a few of the signals on any given stock or ETF,
you can catch the most profitable market swings. This is even possible on a weekly basis.
The incredible breakthrough I've been talking about is called the Winning Signal based on the
Groenke V theory. It is a part of my tool set that has made a lot of investors a lot of money. If
you are able to predict the direction of a stock with a high degree of accuracy, then the
opportunity for success is endless. That is just what I’ll reveal in this book along with fully
implemented strategy at WallStreetWinning.com.
The Winning Signal implements a Black Box algorithm that looks at what has happened in the
past, for any stock or ETF, and provides an indication of when to Buy, Hold, Sell, or just Wait
(do nothing). The details of the algorithm are revealed and described for your review and
analysis.
Here is one of the many opportunities that could make a significant positive impact in your
portfolio. AMAZON [AMZN] ended down by 22% in 2014. So holding it all year gave you
nothing. Following the Winning Signal would have netted you a 29.67% return for the same time
frame. Now that is significant. Another example is American Express [AXP]. It had a gain of
5.14% in 2014. The Winning Signal produced a 20.57% return with three trades that were all
profitable. How about this one, CVR Energy [CVI]. It was down 1.53% in 2014 but WS
produced a 46.14% return with four trades. Using the Winning Signal low risk weekly trade rules
provided a return of 33.22% with 23 trades and ownership of 21 days or less.
What Kind of Investor Are You? Can Investing Actually be Sexy?
Are you an investor, trader, collector or gambler? It depends on your point of view. An investor
is a person who commits money in order to earn a financial return. A trader is a person whose
business is buying and selling regularly. I consider myself an investor that trades stocks. I
commit assets to generate a return. In the process, I buy and sell, knowing that to earn a return,
one needs to sell the asset at a higher price than its purchase price. You make money by selling.
We don’t simply suggest that you buy low and sell high. Most times we buy high and sell higher.
If you buy and hold equity without the intent to sell, perhaps you are a collector. The asset may
be worth a lot more in the future, but that could be generations away. If the past ten years is any
indication of the future, to buy and hold could be termed a collector strategy.
If you are the type of person that takes stock tips from the shoeshine boy, then you are definitely
the gambler. If you base your trades not on history, not on facts, not on fundamentals and simply
on what some talking head on TV says, or because you like a certain symbol, you just might be
the gambler. Gamblers can be sexy when they are winning, but sooner or later if the gambler
plays long enough they will eventually lose. That is not sexy.
Being successful is about winning and the confidence associated with a consistent positive
return. This is possible if you know when to buy and when to sell. Equities have up and down
cycles just like the economy. Some equities are in step with the economic cycle and others are
not. During 2014, many equities like General Electric (GE) or Boeing (BA) were falling with the
economic uncertainty, while other companies like Apple (AAPL) were moving up and making
new highs. The problem is, there are very few stocks that perform like Apple. It is a fact. So how
do you win in this type of environment?
This is the beauty and challenge of investing in equities. If you are able to predict the direction of
a stock with a high degree of accuracy, then the opportunity for success is endless. Endless
success is SEXY! That is what I am revealing to at WallStreetWinning.com.
My technical analysis algorithm and process (Winning Signal) uses stock price trend, pattern,
and trading history to determine when to buy and sell any stock.
To demonstrate my process, let’s look at the opportunity to generate a return in Microsoft
[MSFT] or Nike [NKE]. In looking at the charts below, it seems rather obvious that one could
buy NKE and just hold it, since it is going up (in hindsight). With MSFT it is more difficult since
it was up and down and ended slightly down for the past twelve months. But there is significant
opportunity with MSFT if you know when to buy and sell.
If you had invested $10,000 in each at the beginning of the period, you would have had a $2,870
gain with NKE and a $286 loss with MSFT.
Now, let’s apply the Winning Signal technology to these two stocks and see what the results are.
For NKE there were 3 trades with a net return of $4,036. For MSFT there were 3 completed
trades with a positive return of $2,598. So in both cases the Winning Signal outperformed the
straight up buy and hold strategy by a wide margin.
Okay, now I am sure you are already thinking in your mind that this seems a little too good to be
true and that I picked the example to make everything look super. Well, that is not the case and,
to dispel those thoughts, here is a summary of the results for all thirty stocks in the DOW index.
The Winning Signal on average provides significant additional return when compared to the
-
traditional buy and hold strategy. Do a review, and judge for yourself.
Now that we have determined that you are an investor and that investing can be sexy. What kind
of investor are you? Are you conservative? Are you moderate? Are you aggressive? There
really is no wrong or right answer here. Your level of risk is a personal taste and everyone is
different. At different times in your life and even different days in your life, you may be one, all
three, or none at all. The choice is up to you.
You can be a successful investor as any other, by using Winning Signals. It works for the most
conservative investors to the most high-risk, aggressive investor. Why? Because, it uses math
and science to give you the best possible outcome. This alone gives you both an advantage and a
strategy in your investing. Strategy is the cornerstone of making money in the markets.
This is where judgment and style of investing enter the picture. I personally believe it is more
productive to take a number of small gains to the bank over time rather than going for the big
win. Singles and doubles win a lot of baseball games. Home runs are nice but very unpredictable.
There is nothing sexy about unpredictability. Sex appeal and confidence go hand in hand. Greed
is not sexy. Losing is not sexy and most certainly, striking out is not sexy.
I have experienced many singles and doubles during the last twenty-five years of my investing
life. And my wife Jean will tell you that is pretty sexy. Singles and doubles have allowed me to
buy nice cars for my wife, a beautiful, Florida home on the water and anything her heart could
desire. It allowed me to put my kids through college, and it allows me to leave a legacy for my
grandchildren.
There is no need to get greedy and try to triple your money overnight. It’s just not attractive and,
more times than not, it is gambling and you will end up a long-term loser. You may think you are
missing out on the out of the park ―big one‖ gain, but the trade data shows that you can be just as
successful with a slow moving industrial like MSFT versus a high fashion trendy stock like
NKE. Predictability, dependability, and financial stability is sexy, as that is what will make you
richer.
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So we hope that you learned something from reading this chapter. As a FREE gift for giving us
your valuable time we want to give you an entire eBook called "Wall Street Winning - Sex. Lies,
and Getting Rich‖. This eBook is 85 pages of to the point, how to win, proof in how to become a
Wall Street Winner. Get the Free, 85-page EBook- CLICK HERE to get your copy!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ron Groenke was a NASA mathematician who discovered the stock
market secret to low risk and big payoffs. He created an algorithm
utilizing techniques he learned at NASA, and adapted them to the
stock market with returns of 20-25%, winning 80 percent of the time.
Ron is the Founder of WallStreetWinning.com
Combat Trade Planning By Matt Buckley, www.TopGunOptions.com
The most important trading floor for any trader, individual or professional, is the five-inch
trading floor between his or her ears. Having the proper mind-frame and controlling emotions is
critical to making good decisions under the pressure of the markets and, ultimately, to trading
success. It all comes down to discipline. We need to know why we are getting in, when to stay
in and when to get out of a trade. At Top Gun Options a quality trade plan is the foundation for
our disciplined execution in every trade.
As flying fighters in the US Navy we planned everything, from a simple 30 minute maintenance
flight to a 7 hour combat mission. Every mission had an objective and we always had a plan to
achieve our objectives. These plans spelled out exactly how we intended to achieve each
objective. The team at Top Gun Options learned how to plan and plan well. At Top Gun Options, we were trading before we joined the Navy to fly fighters, so we had built
up some habits about how we went about our business of trading. Some were good, some were
bad, but these habits lacked discipline and continuity. Then one day, shooting the breeze at the
Officer’s Club (which is where we solved all the world problems over a cocktail) it just kind of
hit us; why don’t we apply the same planning and execution disciplines that we use flying
fighters in combat to our trading?
After all, our combat plans defined many things, to include: our objective, tactical mindset,
targets, Commit Criteria (our go-no-go decision), the Tactic we intend to use to achieve our
objective, employment method to achieve the Tactic, our course of action (steps we are going to
follow executing the plan), contingency plans in case things don’t go exactly as planned and we
must also have a clear Exit Plan. So this tactical planning we used every day out on the aircraft
carrier seemed a perfect fit for the options trading world as well!
You have to plan for combat in this manner, because combat is dynamic, it’s dangerous, the
battlefield is in constant change and you don’t know where your enemy will strike from next.
Sound familiar? Where did this Greek debt crisis come from, how about Enron or WorldCom?
Which bubble is going to burst next? Who’s cooking the books at our favorite company? Well,
it seems to us, this definition of combat applies directly to the financial markets.
Which is why at Top Gun Options, ―Trading is Combat” because it is!
In this lesson we are going to share with you our planning process. Is it perfect and suited for
everyone? We certainly like it and we believe that you will benefit by applying the same
discipline to your trading.
Defining a Plan
So just what is a plan? You don’t have to be a Rocket Surgeon to understand this one!
A plan is a series of steps to achieve an objective.
This makes sense if you’re going to hang some shelves in the garage or cook a pot roast. A plan
is just a recipe and when it’s complete you have some more shelves in the garage or a pot roast
for dinner.
But, how does this definition work when you are playing in one of the most dynamic arenas in
the world, where things are constantly changing and often appear to be directly against us? It
still works, but the plan has to suit the environment where it is going to be executed and we are
executing plans in one of the most complex environments in the world, the financial markets.
So, we need to account for a few more things than cooking a pot roast.
When I am giving a presentation on planning, I always ask the crowd to write down the
components of a plan. Invariably they are always slightly different and in many cases folks can’t
break a plan down into its important components. This lesson will solve this issue.
Why Plan?
Discipline
A trade plan is the foundation for disciplined execution. It allows us to keep our head on straight
when all the talking heads are telling us the world is falling apart. It memorializes our reason for
being in the trade and helps us make good disciplined business decisions under the pressure of
the markets. It is because we built a plan, before the heat was on, that allows us to remove as
much emotion as possible from our trading. In short, a trade plan is our tool to keep us
disciplined in a trade.
Risk Management
Risk management is built into the plan. We know exactly when to get out, what our maximum
acceptable loss is for the trade and how we are going to get out or adjust the position to save
profits or limit losses. We define all of this before we get into a tight spot where emotions can
take over and lead us to bad decision making. Emotions: greed, fear, attachment to a trade,
whatever the issue, will influence your decision making. If you think it doesn’t, you are going to
spend a lot of money realizing that you’re wrong. Laying out your risk parameters before being
under the gun, will greatly assist you in suppressing your emotions and help you make good
decisions.
In the Top Gun Options Pocket Checklist (OPCL), we layout planning guidelines for several
different option tactics. In each, we identify our profit targets and maximum risk parameters for
each trade to assist you in building your plan.
Superior Execution When we get down to the brass tacks of trading, it’s all about execution. Being disciplined and
mapping out our risk parameters before we are deep in trades leads to Superior Execution. The
decisions we make in the heat of battle are key to our success in trading. We have a saying as
flying fighters, ―A bad plan executed well is better than a good plan executed poorly, but a good
plan with good execution Discipline is unbeatable!‖ When you go through our Top Gun Options
program, we will go over several options tactics and discuss optimum execution whether the
market is trending favorably or unfavorably.
Ultimately Discipline, Risk Management and Superior Execution come down to the
individual trader. As traders, we have to commit to being disciplined. We have to commit to
sound Risk Management. We have to commit to achieving Superior Execution with our trading.
It takes practice and courage to execute your plan, but the end result is consistent Superior
Execution and more profits.
Components of a Plan
A plan has to be tailored to the environment we intend to execute. The planning process needs
to flow sensibly, be easily understood and address as many potential scenarios as possible that
can threaten the achievement of our objective. The very first component in any plan is ―The Objective,‖ As traders and investors it does not
matter if you are trading options, stocks, commodities, bonds, currencies or anything for that
matter. Our objective as traders and investors is universal:
Make Money, Don’t Lose It!
This is why we play in this financial arena; there is no other reason. We want
to make money, not lose it! Every trade plan we create supports this
objective…we want to make money, not lose it! If we are wrong in our trade,
because we are not going to get them all right, we want to get out with minimal
damage and keep our money to play another day.
Since this is our universal objective, we don’t need to write it down every time. It is our guiding
precept for trading.
After the objective, a Top Gun Options trade plan has seven components, designed specifically
for trading options. A Top Gun Options trade plan…
…Defines our Strategic Mindset …Identifies our Target...which is the underlying we want to engage.
…Outlines our Commit Criteria…Our justification for the trade.
…Identifies the Tactic we will use. …Sets up our Tactical Employment. …Outlines our Mid-Course Guidance…which is our trade execution plan.
…And finally outlines our Exit Plan…
Once the planning process is understood, a trader can complete the plan in as little as 5-10
minutes. We will go through each one of these components in this lesson.
Some of these terms may be new to you and that’s because they have their roots in air combat,
but they dovetail very nicely into our planning and, in our view, tighten our focus up another
notch. We will explain each as we come across them if not,there is a Top Gun Options Terms
glossary in the back of the book for reference.
Strategic Mindset
Our Strategic Mindset is the stance we take regarding how we think our underlying asset (our
target) or the market will perform given the current financial climate. Strategic Mindset falls
into one of four categories:
1. Bullish
2. Bearish
3. Neutral
4. Volatile
We can qualify our mindset if needed; we can be short-term bearish if we think something is
overbought and might correct. Or we can be neutral to bearish or neutral to bullish. It just
depends on our analysis of the current situation and guides our Tactic selection to fit our
Strategic Mindset.
When developing our Strategic Mindset we take a big to small approach. We start with the
global financial situation and drill down to specific sectors, then to the stocks within a sector
using both fundamental and technical analysis. As options traders we always take a look at our
main barometer, the VIX, to tell us what the market is thinking and how the current market is
priced.
Our Strategic Mindset drives many of our trading decisions. It helps us to analyze potential
positions with an appropriate bias for the current market. It also gives us a baseline to challenge
our own market assertions and those assertions of all the information we absorb. We don’t want
to be mindless sheep following the talking heads on CNBC or a tip we hear at work. We want to
be proactive in the development of our Strategic Mindset and verify or disqualify the information
we hear around us.
Target
Our target is simply the underlying asset with which we are looking to open a position. We will
focus on an asset because we have clearly defined our Strategic Mindset on this target and we
think we can profit from an options position supporting this mindset.
There are literally thousands of optional targets: Stocks, ETFs, futures, commodities. We will
focus on stocks while going through Top Gun Options.
Commit Criteria
Commit criteria is our justification for entering in a trade. Commit criteria should be easily
understood and explained in 1 – 3 sentences. Commit criteria is supported by our Strategic
Mindset, our fundamental and technical analysis, and the volatility of the target.
Here is an example of what Commit Criteria might sound like if we had a bullish mindset on
Freeport McMoRan (FCX).
“The recent pullback in FCX is exaggerated. The stock has come off its recent lows with heavy
volume and appears to be at the beginning of bullish trend with a short-term technical price
target of 70. Fundamentals remain strong and copper prices are rebounding.‖
This is a valid Commit Criteria for entering a trade. Commit criteria memorializes why we are
in the trade. During the course of a trade, if we can no longer justify our Commit Criteria then
we get out, immediately.
Tactic
At Top Gun Options, a ―Tactic‖ is the option position we are opening, and there are many
different positions we can open using options: calls, puts, condors, butterflies, credit spreads, etc.
In the Top Gun Options Pocket Checklist (OPCL) you will find 32 different option tactics.
In current options lingo this is referred to as a strategy, but to call this a strategy is not true to the
word’s meaning. A strategy is a bigger vision that supports our ―objective‖ and refers to a plan
of ―actions‖ to achieve our objective; in this case, our investment objective. The ―actions‖ taken
to achieve these goals are referred to as ―tactics.‖
Example:
Objective: Make Money, Don’t Lose It! Strategy: Use options to achieve our objective. Tactics: An option position to support our strategy.
For instance: If a trader wants to earn income from stocks in their portfolio by selling covered
calls. This supports our objective and the strategy is to earn extra income with options. The
Tactic to achieve this extra income is to sell covered calls on stocks in their portfolio.
To us at Top Gun Options, this is a more correct way to add detail to our intentions. In short, a
strategy tells us what we want and a Tactic is how we get what we want.
Tactical Employment Tactical Employment is the set up for our option position. It includes:
● Leg Set Up ● Net Debit or Credit ● Max Profit potential ● Maximum Risk of the trade ● Break Evens ● Probabilities of success ● Adjust and Eject Criteria ● Greek Effects
Outlining Tactical Employment lets us know what we are getting into when we enter a trade.
Think of Tactical Employment as defining the performance envelope for our trade. It defines the
parameters, both good and bad, where the trade can perform.
Mid-Course Guidance Mid-Course Guidance encompasses our trade management plan. The term comes from an air-to-
air missile and refers to the control of the missile until just before it reaches its target. At Top
Gun Options, Mid-Course Guidance encompasses our Risk Management parameters in terms of
profit goal and max allowable loss, threats to success, contingency plans and Eject Criteria.
Max profit goals and max allowable loss are independent trader decisions based on individual
investment goals and risk tolerance. At Top Gun Options we are not trying to hit the ball out of
the park on every trade; base hits can add up fast. When setting our max allowable loss, we
determine the maximum we are willing to lose to see if this trade will work. This does not mean
we have to wait to reach this point to get out, it is simply defining the most we are willing to let
this trade work against us. This keeps us from saying to ourselves, ―I just need a few more days
for this to work!‖ or ―I love this trade, it will come around,‖ and staying in a losing trade. If we
hit our max allowable loss, we get out; lick our wounds and move on to the next trade.
Threats to success are occurrences that can negatively affect our position during the life of the
trade. An example of a threat to our success: We were bullish and then implied volatility
increased unexpectedly due to a negative economic report.
Contingency planning is simply having a basic game plan if our trade is not going per design: do
we roll up, roll down or get out?
Our Eject Criteria are our ―no questions asked,‖ just get out of this trade; examples include: our
max allowable loss limit is reached or our Commit Criteria is no longer valid.
Embedded in your options PCL tactics section is guidance for setting many of these parameters
and can serve as a great starting point for determining your own risk parameters.
Exit Plan
The Exit Plan is how we are going to get out of a trade. We never get into a fight unless we
know exactly how we intend to exit. Factors for planning an exit include: a sound reason for
exit, layout our closing trade set up, whether we are exiting prior to expiration or taking it all the
way to expiration.
It is important to know exactly how you are going to exit a trade before the volatility of the
markets gets the better of you.
Planning Complete
That’s the plan! It’s just a logical sequence of steps that encapsulates and memorializes our
research, lays out the playing field for the trade, sets risk tolerance tripwires for action while in
the trade and lines out how we will exit. Don’t trade without one!
Once you have the system down it will take 5 -10 minutes max to complete and will keep you
aligned very closely with our universal objective.
Make Money, Don’t Lose It!
Example Trade Plan
Back in January 2010 we were beginning to think that Google (GOOG) was getting a little lofty
in price. Even though the talking heads could not stop talking about how great GOOG was and it
was going to the moon non-stop. At this point we took a short-term contrarian’s view. So we
took a short term bearish Strategic Mindset on GOOG, 7 days, and decided to target GOOG with
a bearish trade.
Our commit criterion was simple:
Commit Criteria: Thinking GOOG is going to give some back in the short term with some of the uncertainty
surrounding the release of various mobile devices and some profit taking. On the technical side,
the 20 day MACD is diverging to the down side and RSI is indicating an overbought condition.
We had some technical indicators and some fundamental uncertainty we thought would lead
skittish traders to take some profits off the table. The Commit Criteria is short, sweet and it
made sense. Little did we know at the time but this was a turning point for GOOG and it is off
about 20% since this call.
Our Tactic was a Bear Call spread two strikes above where GOOG was trading. One of our
intermediate tactics and in this instance it had a high probability of success.
Tactic: Bear Call Spread on GOOG, 610/620
Tactical Employment is petty straight forward and requires just a little math:
Tactical Employment: Leg Set up: Sell JAN 610 Call at 3.90 Buy JAN 620 Call at 2.10 Net Credit: 1.80
Max Profit: 1.80, 22% return on risk. Max Risk: 8.20 Breakeven: 611.80 Probabilities: 72% probability of max profit.
The Greeks: Theta (Time Value): Time is our Friend, the longer that GOOG stays below our
breakeven of 611.80 the stronger our chance of a profit.
Vega (Volatility): For this trade we want volatility to decrease for the duration of the
position. An increase in volatility with GOOG can easily threaten our Breakeven (B/E) on the
down side. The last part of our Tactical Employment is an understanding of the Greek effects. In this case
Vega and Theta are what we were concerned with and in a bear call spread. Theta is our friend
because the longer that we stayed below our breakeven, the better our chance of profit. We also
wanted to keep volatility in our scan because an increase in volatility could decrease our chances
of success.
Mid-course guidance, which is our trade management plan, is relatively simple:
Mid-Course Guidance:
Profit Target: Profit Target is 1.80, 22% return on risk. 100% return on premium.
Threats to Success: – Jobs Data is being reported Friday, a positive report could cause a move to the
upside. – We are going against the longer-term trend of GOOG and buyers could step in if
they don’t see any more down side.
Eject Criteria/Contingency Plan: – Commit Criteria becomes invalid – We will set our stop loss 25%...Eject if the premium gets to 2.25
Our threats to success over the trade are researched and listed so we don’t drop them out of our
scan.
Our Eject Criteria is set; in this case we had a tight stop for two reasons. First, the short term on
the trade did not give us too much time for it to reverse if it went strongly against us. Secondly,
we were going against the long term trend and did not want to get caught in a minor downdraft.
Our only contingency plan was to get out if the trade went against us; we did not want to roll this
trade.
Finally, our Exit Plan was simple:
Exit Plan ● Profit Target or Eject Criteria Reached. ● To close position, simultaneously,
• Buy JAN10 610 Call • Sell JAN10 620 Call
This is all there is to putting a plan together. Once complete it should fit nicely onto one or two
pages. The actual trade plan is depicted below:
Trade Plan
January 7, 2010
Strategic Mindset: BEARISH, Short term (7 days) on GOOG
Target: GOOG currently trading at 593.52
Commit Criteria: Thinking GOOG is going to give some back in the short term with some of the uncertainty
surrounding the release of various mobile devices and some profit taking. On the technical side,
the 20 day MACD is diverging to the down side and RSI is indicating an overbought condition.
Tactic: Bear Call Spread on GOOG, 610/620
Tactical Employment: Leg Set up: Sell JAN 610 Call at 3.90 Buy JAN 620 Call at 2.10
Net Credit: 1.80
Max Profit: 1.80, 22% return on risk.
Max Risk: 8.20
Breakeven: 611.80 Probabilities: 72% probability of max profit.
The Greeks: Theta (Time Value): Time is our Friend, the longer that GOOG stays below our
breakeven of 611.80 the stronger our chance of a profit.
Vega (Volatility): For this trade we want volatility to decrease for the duration of the
position. An increase in volatility with GOOG can easily threaten our B/E on the down side.
Mid-Course Guidance: Profit Target: Profit Target is 1.80, 22% return on risk. 100% return on premium.
Threats to Success: – Jobs Data is being reported Friday; a positive report could cause a move to the
upside. – We are going against the longer-term trend of GOOG and buyers could step in if
they don’t see any more down side.
Eject Criteria/Contingency Plan: – Commit Criteria becomes invalid – We will set our stop loss 25%...Eject if the premium gets to 2.25
Exit Plan 1. Profit Target or Eject Criteria Reached.
2. To close position, simultaneously,
● Buy JAN10 610 Call ● Sell JAN10 620 Call
CONCLUSION
The time invested in putting a plan together is well worth the effort.
This trade ended up working out for us and we bought it back for 10 cents and made 1.70 on the
trade. We got out prior to reaching our profit target because we had made a nice profit in the
short time the trade was open and market volatility, the VIX, was starting to show signs of life
heading into earnings season back in January.
Wrap Up
Having a plan will substantially increase your trading Discipline; it lays out your Risk
Management plan and will lead to consistent Superior Execution. You can complete your plan
before or after pulling the trigger. If we complete the plan after executing the trade, it is because
we are familiar with the target and are comfortable trading it. After we pull the trigger though,
we sit back and fill out the plan immediately.
Our planning process represents the minimum knowledge we want to have before we open a
trade and it is the tool that gives us the confidence we need to execute our trades with Discipline,
manage our risk based on our comfort with the current market climate and consistently manage
our trades with Superior Execution. You may want a bit more or a bit less in your plan, but our
system provides a solid foundation for customizing your own trade plans to suit your trading
needs.
Your Options Pocket Checklist (OPCL) contains a planning guide that will help you build solid
plans every time. Plus, we will walk you through many trade plans as we go through Top Gun
Options.
THE SPECIAL OFFER
CLICK HERE to enroll in our live trading programs and to see this trade plan being used by our
professional traders. Visit our site www.topgunoptions.com to learn more information.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
E. Matthew ―Whiz‖ Buckley is the founder and CEO of Top Gun
Options LLC and is the Chief Development Officer and a partner at
Black Bay Fund Management LP.
Whiz is a highly experienced financial business executive with
decades of leadership and execution experience from the front lines
to the front office. Whiz was the founder and CEO of PEAK6
Media LLC, a financial media company. The company provided
options and futures news, commentary, analysis, entertainment, and
up to the minute reporting directly from the floors of the Chicago
Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and Board of Trade (CBOT).
This exclusive information allowed retail and professional options
and futures traders around the world to execute at a higher level.
Whiz has written a book called From Sea Level to C Level: A Fighter Pilot’s Journey from the
Front Lines to the Front Office, which combines his experiences in the military and in corporate
America.
Whiz is a decorated Naval Aviator who flew the F/A-18 Hornet for the United States Navy. He
flew 44 combat sorties over Iraq and graduated from the Navy Fighter Weapons School
(―TOPGUN‖).
Reading Order Flow for Unusual Options Activity What are Options and Why Is Reading Order Flow Important?
By James Ramelli, www.AlphaSharkTraders.com
An option is a contract between the buyer and the seller. There are two types of options: calls and puts.
Calls give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy a specified stock or financial instrument (the
―underlying‖) at a specified price (the ―strike price‖) on or before a specific date (―expiration‖). The
buyer has the right to buy the underlying at the strike price, and the seller has the obligation, but not the
right, to sell the underlying should these conditions be met.
Puts give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying at the strike price on or before
expiration. Put buyers have the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying stock (or other
instrument) at the strike price on or prior to expiration. Alternatively, put sellers are obligated to buy the
underlying at the strike price should a buyer choose to exercise these rights.
So what factors determine how these options are priced? Six factors, or price inputs, determine an option
―premium:‖
1. The stock price
2. The strike price of the options
3. The time remaining until expiration
4. Dividends
5. Interest rates
6. Implied volatility.
In general, the more a given stock fluctuates in price on a daily or weekly basis, the more expensive its
options will be, and vice versa. Options usually tend to be more expensive prior to earnings reports and
other major announcements but decrease in price sharply after the announcement, once the ―uncertainty‖
has been removed. A good example of this is biotech stocks and drug announcements.
Options are traded for one of two reasons: as speculation, or to hedge against a stock position.
Options are bought as a speculation that a stock will move in a certain direction. Calls may be purchased
because a trader believes the stock will move higher prior to expiration. Alternatively, puts may be
purchased because a trader believes the stock will move lower prior to expiration.
The terms ―in-the-money,‖ ―at-the-money,‖ and ―out-of-the-money‖ are used to describe the relationship
of an option’s strike price to the price of the underlying stock. A call is in-the-money when the stock price
is above the strike price. Alternatively, a call is out-of-the-money when the stock price is below the strike
price. As you might guess, if a call is at-the-money, its strike price is equal to the stock price.
The inverse is true when looking at puts: if the stock price is above the strike price, a put is considered to
be in-the-money. A put is out-of-the-money if the strike price is below the stock price, while the at-the-
money definition is the same as for calls.
Options are also purchased to hedge against stock positions. Each day, I watch over 2,000 trades in real-
time as they hit the tape. I always try to determine, are these orders a hedge against a stock position, or a
speculative play? In the eleven years I spent trading on the floor, I learned how to ―Read the Tape.‖
Most certainly a combination of art and science, it is a skill I’ve honed over the years. A large part of my
trading strategy is based on my ability to do this. By watching for big block option orders, dubbed
―unusual options activity,‖ I try to determine the positions of Paper. ―Paper‖ is term originating from the
trading floor, when orders were actually written on paper and run to traders in the pit by clerks. It is used
to describe large institutions such as hedge funds, mutual funds, or large banks. In other words,
institutions who have access to better information – even ―insider‖ information – than your average trader
or investor.
When trading off of unusual option activity, I only want to take trades based on orders I believe to be
speculative plays. Given the sensitive, and even illegal, natures of their positions, hedge funds tend to be a
secretive bunch. Thus determining if these trades are speculative or a hedge is like piecing together a
puzzle.
Let’s put it another way: what if you could have taken the same trades as Raj Rajatnam, or SAC Capital’s
Steve Cohen, the moment they were put on? I’d go to jail for insider trading, you might say? Not so fast.
The moment an order hits the tape, it becomes public information. I can trade off it, based on the fact that
I believe someone placing such a large bet has access to insider information, and it is completely, 100%
legal. This isn’t a matter of debate, or speculation, ask any SEC lawyer you know. This is why I trade
unusual options activity. And this is why it works.
The Unusual Options Activity Trading Plan
There is no secret to becoming a profitable trader, and you should be skeptical of anyone who tells you
otherwise. That being aid, the techniques I’ve outlined in this text served me very well in my trading
career and without them I would not have made the money I did.
Reading order flow and watching unusual options activity continues to be one of my most profitable
techniques, just like it was on the trading floor. I had two very profitable years in Apple stock when my
net profits in AAPL were over a million dollars. Once a week for a year, a Merrill Lynch broker would
walk into the pit and sell AAPL put spreads. His acronym was ―HES,‖ and whenever I would see him
coming, I would know to get long and sell volatility. How did he know? No clue, but by watching him I
made quite a few profitable trades.
By combining order flow with technical indicators like the Ichimoku cloud, I devised my OCRRBTT
trading plan to trade profitably off of the floor.
The OCRRBTT Trading Plan
Pronounced ―Oak Ribbit,‖ this trading plan will give you a step-by-step method for breaking down
unusual option activity. After evaluating unusual trades with this plan, you will be able to decide if you
want to follow it or ignore the trade altogether. The letters in the acronym stand for:
Open interest
Chart
Risk
Reward
Breakeven
Time
Target.
Here you will see the importance of each of these elements in the plan.
Open interest: The first thing you need to look at is if the trade volume is bigger than the current open
interest in that line. If it is, this means that this is an opening position and is worth taking a look at. You
don’t want to buy an option on unusual activity if it is really just paper covering a short. Only consider
trades where volume is greater than open interest.
Chart: This is the second most important element of the plan. Once an unusual order is confirmed to be
an opening order you must then look at the chart of the underlying stock. You need to ask questions. Is
the stock in a strong bullish or bearish trend? Is there support or resistance at the strikes the institution is
trading? Is it more likely they are speculating on more upside or downside or could they be hedging? The
answers to these questions will help you determine if the trade is speculation or a hedge. This will keep
you from trading against the institution when you actually want to trade with them.
Risk, Reward, and Breakeven: Once the direction of the trade is determined, you have to evaluate if the
risk vs. reward profile of the trade the institution executed is in line with your risk tolerances. Some trades
they take could be far too risky for the average retail trader. However, since you know the direction the
institution is betting, you can tailor a trade that has the right risk setup for you. The risk of each trade
must also be measured against the potential reward. If the institution is risking $5 to make $1, this is a
trade you would want to avoid. You should also always be aware of the breakeven of each trade. If there
is significant support or resistance at the breakeven point, you may want to consider another strategy.
Time and target: Always be aware of potential catalyst events that might be near. You want to know if
paper is playing the overall direction of the stock or if they are playing a near-term catalyst event like
earnings, drug announcements, or new product launches. This might factor into your decision to take the
trade or not. Once you have your time horizon set, you want to pick a profit target. Are you leaving this
trade on to expiration? Taking off half at a double and letting the rest ride? Knowing the answers to these
questions at the onset of the trade make it easier to manage going forward.
Putting the Plan to Work
Once a trade hits the tap, a trader must use the OCRRBTT trading plan to analyze the setup and
determine if it represents an actionable trading opportunity. Let’s look at the example below and
determine if it is a trade setup that we actually want to take. This order hit the tape on June 16th
2015.
Before running this trade through the plan, we need to understand the information we have.
We are able to get a lot of information from order flow. We can see how many contracts this trader
bought, that it was a $540,000 bet and that the trader that bought these options paid through the market
maker’s offer to get filled. Although all of these things make this trade interesting, they still do not
necessarily qualify it as an actionable setup.
To make this determination, we must evaluate this trade using the OCRRBTT trading plan.
Open Interest: Was this an opening position? This trade is labeled opening, so there is no doubt it was an
opening position. If for some reason the trade was not labeled opening, we would still be able to confirm
that it is because the volume of 5,000 contracts is greater than the current open interest in the line of only
796 contracts. With open interest smaller than volume, there are not enough open contracts in the line for
this to be a closing trade. It is confirmed opening.
Chart: Does the chart indicate this trade is more likely to be a hedge or a speculative bet? We need to
confirm that the underlying trend of the stock supports this as a speculative bet. If it does not, the trade
may be a hedge, and it is less likely to be actionable. To do this, we will use an indicator called the
Ichimoku Cloud. It may look intimidating, but for this purpose a trader only needs to know that anything
trading above the shaded area on the chart is in firm bullish territory and anything below it is in bearish
territory.
Here is the chart of CAG on the Ichimoku Cloud the day these calls hit the tape:
We can see that the stock is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud and is in an established bullish trend. This
does not confirm with 100% certainty that this order was indeed a speculative bet, but it makes it far more
likely that this is the case. With the trend supporting the idea of this trade as a speculative bet, we will
move on to the next part of the analysis.
Risk and Reward: Does the potential reward justify the risk? This is a very large trade in what is
generally a boring stock. ConAgra (CAG) doesn’t usually get much unusual activity, so if the risk and
reward setup makes sense, it might be a trade that we want to take. This is an outright call buy, and a
trader knows that they can never lose more than $1.08 in this trade. This translates to $108 in risk per one
lot with what is a technically unlimited upside reward potential. This sets up for a good reward-to-risk
setup, and a trader can take this trade.
Breakeven: Where is the breakeven point in this setup? These options are just out of the money and are
being bought for $1.08. At that strike price, this trade’s upside breakeven is $40.08, or about 4.6% higher
than the stock’s price at the time of the trade. This is only a 4.6% move to the upside. That is not an
unreasonable move. With that in mind the setup becomes even more attractive.
Time and Target: What is the trader expecting? In this trade, they are looking for a move to the upside
of at least 4.6% by July expiration. Since the trader bought the July, $39 calls, we will buy the same ones.
A trader should never trade a different expiration or price target than the institutional trader. Remember,
they have better information than us.
Everything about this trade sets up well. All of the evaluations in the OCRRBTT trading plan point to this
being an actionable trade setup.
The Result
This trade ended up being a fantastic winner. The trader’s motivations behind this trade become
much more clear three days later when news breaks of activist activity in CAG.
Look at how the stock responded to the news:
The stock gapped to the upside and these options exploded in value. Anyone looking at the
reaction in the stock might be surprised by the huge move to the upside, but those paying
attention to unusual options activity were alerted to this potential move three days before it
actually happened.
The options that the institutional trader bought saw an enormous move to the upside, trading as
high as $6.20 before expiration. This means that at the highs, this trader would have profited
$2.56 million dollars at the highs. Look at a chart of the options below.
A retail trader who followed this trader with a 20 lot of these options would have profited
$10,240 at the highs. This is a perfect example of how a retail trader can harness the power of
institutional order flow and trade more like the biggest and most successful hedge fund managers
in the world.
How Can AlphaShark Trading Help Me?
Since founding AlphaShark Trading in February 2012, I’ve been overwhelmed by the positive
feedback and response I’ve received. Business is booming, which is great, because I love helping
traders improve their P&L through setting up better risk-versus-reward trades. Every day in the
office, the other traders and I discuss strategies, options set-ups, and reasons why we did or
didn’t take certain trades. AlphaShark trading began as a blog, but I realized I wasn’t just content
with sharing my market commentary. After all the monetary success options brought me, I
wanted to help others stop losing money at the very least.
To learn more about trading unusual options activity and how you can get unusual options
activity alerts live and in real time, please check out our Gold Package here for a HUGE
discount!
THE SPECIAL OFFER
Get one month of trade alerts for just $7! CLICK HERE to get your copy of the gold package!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Ramelli is a trader and options educator at AlphaShark Trading,
where he actively trades futures, equity options, currency pairs and
commodities. As one of the moderators of the Live Trading Room,
Ramelli educates members on strategies, trade setups, and risk
management while trading his own capital.
Ramelli regularly appears on Bloomberg TV, BNN, and CBOE TV, in
addition to writing a weekly column for Futures magazine and being
featured in CME Group’s OpenMarkets as a guest contributor.
Ramelli holds a B.S. in Finance with a concentration in Derivatives and Financial Engineering
from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
How to Use Straddles to Trade Options By Kim Klaiman, www.SteadyOptions.com
For those not familiar with the straddle strategy, it is a neutral strategy in options trading that
involves the simultaneous buying of a put and a call on the same underlying, strike and
expiration. The trade has a limited risk (which is the debit paid for the trade) and unlimited profit
potential. If you buy different strikes, the trade is called a strangle.
You execute a straddle trade by simultaneously buying the call and the put. You can leg in by
buying calls and puts separately, but it will expose you to directional risk. For example, if both
calls and puts are worth $5, you can buy a straddle for $10. If you buy the call first, you become
bullish - if the stock moves down, the calls you own will decrease in value, but the puts will be
more expensive to buy.
The Options Guide explains straddle:
Long straddle options are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used
when the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience significant volatility
in the near term.
Maximum loss for long straddles occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration date is
trading at the strike price of the options bought. At this price, both options expire worthless and
the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the trade.
INVESTOPEDIA explains straddle:
Straddles are a good strategy to pursue if an investor believes that a stock's price will move
significantly, but is unsure as to which direction. The stock price must move significantly if the
investor is to make a profit. Should only a small movement in price occur in either direction, the
investor will experience a loss. As a result, a straddle is extremely risky to perform. Additionally,
on stocks that are expected to jump, the market tends to price options at a higher premium, which
ultimately reduces the expected payoff should the stock move significantly.
Example
With AAPL currently trading at $130.28, you could buy AAPL straddle by buying 130 put and
130 call. This is what the P/L chart would look like:
How straddles make or lose money
A straddle is a vega positive, gamma positive and theta negative trade. That means that all other
factors equal, the straddle will lose money every day due to the time decay, and the loss will
accelerate as we get closer to expiration. For the straddle to make money, one of two things (or
both) has to happen:
1. The stock has to move (no matter which direction).
2. The IV (Implied Volatility) has to increase.
A straddle works based on the premise that both call and put options have unlimited profit
potential but limited loss. While one leg of the straddle loses up to its limit, the other leg
continues to gain as long as the underlying stock rises, resulting in an overall profit. When the
stock moves, one of the options will gain value faster than the other option will lose, so the
overall trade will make money. If this happens, the trade can be close before expiration for a
profit.
In many cases IV increase can also produce nice gains since both options will increase in value
as a result from increased IV.
When to use a straddle
Straddles are a good strategy to pursue if you believe that a stock's price will move significantly,
but unsure as to which direction. Another case is if you believe that IV of the options will
increase - for example, before a significant event like earnings. IV (Implied Volatility) usually
increases sharply a few days before earnings, and the increase should compensate for the
negative theta. If the stock moves before earnings, the position can be sold for a profit or rolled
to new strikes. This is one of my favorite strategies that we use in our model portfolio for
consistent gains.
Many traders like to buy straddles before earnings and hold them through earnings hoping for a
big move. While it can work sometimes, personally I don't like it. The reason is that over time
the options tend to overprice the potential move. Those options experience huge volatility drop
the day after the earnings are announced. In most cases, this drop erases most of the gains, even
if the stock had a substantial move.
Buying a straddle before earnings
Few years ago, I came across an excellent book by Jeff Augen, ―The Volatility Edge in Options
Trading.‖ One of the strategies described in the book is called ―Exploiting Earnings - Associated
Rising Volatility.‖ Here is how it works:
1. Find a stock with a history of big post-earnings moves.
2. Buy a strangle for this stock about 7-14 days before earnings.
3. Sell just before the earnings are announced.
IV (Implied Volatility) usually increases sharply a few days before earnings, and the increase
should compensate for the negative theta. If the stock moves before earnings, the position can be
sold for a profit or rolled to new strikes.
Like every strategy, the devil is in details. The following questions need to be answered:
1. Which stocks should be used? I tend to trade stocks with post-earnings moves of at least
5-7% in the last four earnings cycles.
2. When to buy? IV starts to rise as early as three weeks before earnings for some stocks
and just a few days before earnings for others. Buy too early and negative theta will kill
the trade. Buy too late and you might miss the big portion of the IV increase. I found that
5-7 days usually works the best.
3. Which strikes to buy? If you go far OTM (Out of The Money), you get big gains if the
stock moves before earnings. But if the stock doesn’t move, closer to the money strikes
might be a better choice.
Under normal conditions, a straddle or a strangle trade requires a big and quick move in the
underlying. If the move doesn’t happen, the negative theta will kill the trade. In case of the pre-
earnings strangle, the negative theta is neutralized, at least partially, by increasing IV. In some
cases, the theta is larger than the IV increase and the trade is a loser. However, the losses in most
cases are relatively small. Typical loss is around 7-10%; in some rare cases it might reach 20-
25%. But the winners far outpace the losers and the strategy is overall profitable.
Market environment also plays a role in the strategy performance. The strategy performs the best
in a volatile environment when stocks move a lot. If none of the stocks move, most of the trades
would be around breakeven or small winners. Fortunately, over time, stocks do move. In fact, a
big chunk of the gains come from stock movement and not IV increases. The IV increase just
helps the trade not to lose in case the stock doesn’t move.
Would you like to rent your options for free?
I would like to explain the "underneath" of this strategy.
Let's take a step back. When someone starts trading options, the first and most simple strategy is
just buying calls (if you are bullish) or puts (if you are bearish). However, when doing that, you
must be right three times: on the direction of the move, the size of the move and the timing. Be
wrong just in one of them - and you lose money. You will also find out very quickly that options
are a wasting asset. They lose value every day. If the stock doesn't move, the option is losing
value. If it moves but not fast enough, it is losing value as well. It is called a negative theta. You
can read more about the options Greeks here.
Another factor having a great impact on options value is IV (Implied Volatility). Rising IV will
increase the option value, falling IV will decrease it. For volatile stocks, IV usually becomes
extremely inflated as the earnings approach and collapses just after the announcement. This is
why if you buy calls or puts before earnings and hold them through the announcement, you
might still lose money even if the stock moves in the right direction.
Having said that, I would like to achieve the following three goals when trading options:
1. Not to bet on the direction of the stock.
2. To minimize the effect of the time decay.
3. To take advantage of the rising IV.
The strategy of buying a strangle (or a straddle) before earnings fits all three parameters. First of
all, since I'm buying both calls and puts, I'm not betting on the direction of the stock. Second, I'm
holding for a very short period of time, so the impact of the time decay is minimal. Third, since
I'm buying a few days before earnings, the IV in most cases will rise into earnings. However, I
will be selling just before the announcement, so the options will not suffer from the IV collapse.
Now, few scenarios are possible.
1. The IV increase is not enough to offset the negative theta and the stock doesn't move. In
this case the trade will probably be a small loser. However, since the theta will be at least
partially offset by the rising IV, the loss is likely to be in the 7-10% range. It is very
unlikely to lose more than 10-15% on those trades if held 2-5 days.
2. The IV increase offsets the negative theta and the stock doesn't move. In this case,
depending on the size of the IV increase, the gains are likely to be in the 5-20% range. In
some rare cases, the IV increase will be dramatic enough to produce 30-40% gains. For
example, AAPL strangle could be purchased on Friday before October 2011 earnings and
sold the following Monday for 32% gain.
3. The IV goes up followed by the stock movement. This is where the strategy really shines.
It could bring few very significant winners. For example, when Google moved 7% in the
first few day of July 2011, a strangle produced a 178% gain. In the same cycle, Apple's
3% move was enough to produce a 102% gain. In August 2011 when VIX jumped from
20 to 45 in a few days, I had the Disney DIS strangle and few other trades doubled in a
matter of two days.
This is why I call those trades "renting a strangle/straddle for free" (or almost free). Even under
the most unfavorable conditions, your loss is usually limited to 7-10%. But if you get a decent IV
increase and/or a stock movement, the gains could be much higher.
Another big advantage of this strategy is the fact that it is not exposed to the gaps in the stock
prices - in fact, it benefits from them. So you cannot suddenly find yourself down 30-50%. You
can always control the losses and limit them.
Selection of strikes and expiration
I would like to start the trade as delta neutral as possible. That usually happens when the stock
trades close to the strike. If the stock starts to move from the strike, I will usually roll the trade to
stay delta neutral. To be clear, rolling is not critical - it just helps us to stay delta neutral. In case
you did not roll and the stock continues moving in the same direction, you can actually have
higher gains. But if the stock reverses, you will be in a better position if you rolled.
I usually select expiration at least two weeks from the earnings, to reduce the negative theta. The
further the expiration, the more conservative the trade is. Going with closer expiration increases
both the risk (negative theta) and the reward (positive gamma). If you expect the stock to move,
going with closer expiration might be a better trade. Higher positive gamma means higher gains
if the stock moves. But if it doesn't, you will need bigger IV spike to offset the negative theta. In
a low IV environment, further expiration tends to produce better results.
Profit Target and Stop Loss
My typical profit target on straddles is 10-15%. I might increase it in more volatile markets. I
usually don't set a stop loss on a straddle. The reason is that the upcoming earnings will usually
set a floor under the price of the straddle. Typically those trades don't lose more than 5-10%. I
believe our biggest loss on a straddle was around 25%, and only a handful of them have lost
more than 20% since inception.
The biggest risk of those trades is pre-announcement. If a company pre-announces earnings
before the planned date, the IV of the options will collapse and the straddle can be a big loser.
However, pre-announcement usually means that the results will be not as expected, which in
most cases causes the stock to move. So most of the time, the loss will not be too high, especially
if there is still more than two weeks to expiration. But this is a risk that needs to be considered.
As a rule, I will always close those trades before earnings.
Why I don't hold through earnings
Some people would argue that selling before earnings is premature. Why not tohold through
earnings, hoping for a big move?
The problem is you are not the only one knowing that earnings are coming. Everyone knows that
those stocks move a lot after earnings, and everyone bids those options. Following the laws of
supply and demand, those options become very expensive before earnings. The IV (Implied
Volatility) jumps to the roof. The next day the IV crashes to the normal levels and the options
trade much cheaper.
For example, holding straddles on stocks like AMZN or NFLX could be very profitable during
some of the last cycles. However, we have to remember that those stocks experienced much
larger moves than their average move in the last few cycles. Chances are this is not going to
happen every cycle. There is no reliable way to predict those events. The big question is the long
term expectancy of the strategy. It is very important to understand that for the strategy to make
money it is not enough for the stock to move. It has to move more than the markets expect. In
some cases, even a 15-20% move might not be enough to generate a profit.
Some people might argue that if the trade is not profitable the same day, you can continue
holding or selling only the winning side till the stock moves in the right direction. It can work
under certain conditions. For example, if you followed the specific stock in the last few cycles
and noticed some patterns, such as the stock continuously moving in the same direction for a few
days after beating the estimates. Another example is holding the calls when the general market is
in uptrend (or downtrend for the puts). However, it has nothing to do with the original strategy.
From the minute you decide to hold that trade, you are no longer using the original strategy. If
the stock didn’t move enough to generate a profit, you must be ready to make a judgment call by
selling one side and taking a directional bet. This might work for some people, but the pure
performance of the strategy can be measured only by looking at a one day change of the strangle
or the straddle (buying a day before earnings, selling the next day).
The bottom line:
Over time the options tend to overprice the potential move. Those options experience huge
volatility drop the day after the earnings are announced. In most cases, this drop erases most of
the gains, even if the stock had a substantial move.
Jeff Augen, a successful options trader and author of six books, agrees:
―There are many examples of extraordinary large earnings-related price spikes that are not
reflected in pre-announcement prices. Unfortunately, there is no reliable method for predicting
such an event. The opposite case is much more common – pre-earnings option prices tend to
exaggerate the risk by anticipating the largest possible spike.‖
It doesn’t necessarily mean that the strategy cannot work and produce great results. However, in
most cases, you should be prepared to hold beyond the earnings day, in which case the
performance will be impacted by many other factors, such as your trading skills, general market
conditions, etc.
Test Case #1
On July 28, 2014 we purchased EXPE 80 straddle expiring in 18 days. We paid $8.45 for the
trade. The IV of the options was around 59%.
Two days later, the IV of the options jumped to 73% and we sold the straddle at $9.85, for 16.6%
gain. An hour later, IV reached 80%, and the straddle could be sold for 26% gain. The stock
itself moved less than 1%.
Test Case #2
On June 24, 2014, we purchased MSFT $42 straddle expiring in August. We were able to roll the
straddle twice, and finally closed it on July 17 for 35.4% gain. In this case, most of the gains
came from the stock movement.
Conclusion
Buying a straddle or a strangle few days before earnings can be a very profitable strategy if used
properly. Of course, the devil is in the details. There are many moving parts to this strategy:
1. When to enter?
2. Which stocks to use?
3. How to manage the position?
4. When to take profits?
And much more. But overall, this strategy has been working very well for us.
Here is an example how this strategy performed during the August 2011 crisis:
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performance at this link- www.SteadyOptions.com/performance
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kim Klaiman is a full time options trader. He is a founder of
www.SteadyOptions.com - options education and trade ideas,
earnings trades and non-directional options strategies. Kim has been
trading stocks and options for more than 10 years. He likes to trade
variety of non-directional trades with low correlation to limit the total
portfolio risk. Kim wrote over 100 articles for Seeking Alpha. He
started the SteadyOptions educational forum after numerous requests from his Seeking Alpha
readers, to share his experience and trading ideas. Kim holds a BSc degree in Computer Science.
He lives in Toronto, Canada.
SteadyOptions.com is a combination of a high quality education and actionable trade ideas. Our
style is non-directional trading. We aim for steady and consistent gains with a high winning ratio
and limited risk. Our focus is on trading Earnings-Associated Implied Volatility rise, Iron
Condors, Calendar spreads, etc. Our performance is based on real fills, not hypothetical
performance. We provide a full trading plan with complete portfolio approach.
Best Advice for Options Traders By Michael McNelis, www.OptionStrategist.com
As an Option Strategist at Key2Options, I am often asked for advice on how to trade options. Quite
frankly, people expect me to be able to answer that question in a single sentence. But let’s be honest. If
you want to be successful in any endeavor, there are no quick fixes.
Are you trying to create income? Is your trading for hedging your portfolio or is this speculative money
look for high returns? Every time we make a trade, whether buying stocks or options, we want to make
money. We have to realize that there are different strategies when buying or selling options. What is
your personality? Can you handle four losses in a row to get to a fifth option trade that makes 150%?
Options give us tremendous flexibility which can be a blessing and a curse. This leads to my first piece of
advice for options traders:
Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Wall Street preys on peoples’ fear and greed, and these two emotions can be detrimental to your
portfolio. With flexibility, it is easy to change your mind or strategy, and then you end up chasing the
market constantly.
What’s my second piece of advice?
Diversify your options portfolio into different strategies.
Option trading is a business and it needs to be treated as such. When creating a stock portfolio, it is
important to diversify. There are times in the market when it makes sense to buy options and there are
times when selling options is a better decision. Become a buyer and seller of options depending on
market conditions.
Which leads me to my third piece of advice:
Time can be a friend or foe.
As buyers of options, we want to have enough time for our
prediction to come to fruition. People tend to buy front
month options because the price is cheaper. Options are a
wasting asset and the extrinsic value of an option erodes
greatly during the last 30 days of an option. Extrinsic Value
refers to the price component of the option that includes
time and volatility.
On the other hand, as
an option seller, we
have to gauge how
much risk we want to
take. The further out
in time we sell an
option, the more
premium we take in,
but it also gives us
more of a chance to
be wrong.
At Key2Options,
we’ve developed a software program that empowers traders with institutional-grade trade analytics and
gives them the ability to test trading strategies with historical options data.
You no longer need to hypothesize what has been the best Facebook option to buy since it went public.
Key2Options gives you the ability to analyze, create, backtest and trade your option strategies.
The Key2Options program allows you to create buy and sell signals, input your money management
parameters, and pick your strike price and expiration date to find out historically what option has
performed the best.
Key2Options is not a Holy Grail. What it is, though, is a tool that gives you the ability to analyze data and,
based on your risk/reward profile, create quantitative models that increase ROI and reduce risk.
How do we do that?
We have a proprietary trade signal that classifies each stock or index in one of 8 States. Using an
algorithm is based off finite mathematics, we will classify and quantify each stock and index as bullish or
bearish as well as giving you an expected price movement over a defined period of time. This helps keep
you on the correct side of the market.
Tip #1: Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan
Plan your trade and trade your plan is our motto at Key2Options...and it should be the motto for all
options traders. Because after all, how often does making rash decisions pay off?
Typically, when it comes to trading, volatile swings can create turmoil for the trader. You must be
incredibly disciplined to trade options. By the very nature of options, the leverage created from option
can cause your Profit and Loss statement to have huge swings.
It is important to know why you made the trade, and how you will react to possible scenarios. What’s
the solution? Plan the trade and trade the plan!
Before we get to specific trades, let’s take a look from 10,000 feet.
Your plan should start as a business plan. If you are trading options as fun or for just a couple hours a
week, don’t expect to be successful. I like to go fishing on the weekends. I catch fish, but at the end of
the day, the charter boat captains that fish full time, day after day, will always perform better than I do.
Are you properly capitalized?
Most businesses fail due to undercapitalization. Even savvy options traders will have a drawdown. It is
important to set up your business knowing how you will allocate your money. That means you will need
to determine what strategies you will use and on which markets.
Any good trader also needs to incorporate a risk management strategy into their trade plan. Here, we
will determine how much we will invest per trade. A common method might be to take 2-5% of your
trading capital per trade.
You will also need to decide where to take our profits and take losses. One of the hardest things for
traders to do is let winners run and cut losses. So many times, I see people suffer with two or three
losses, then as soon as the next trade makes a little money, they want to capture the profit.
The problem for most traders is they have no idea what
when they should sell for profit or when to take a loss.
It’s great to have a theory, but is it correct?
The Key2Options program takes the idea of “plan the
trade and trade the plan” to another level. With it, you
can backtest your theory and find out where you should
be taking profits and cutting losses.
Backtesting: Don’t Trade Without It!
Backtesting is a key part of developing your trading plan. Why backtest? You
want to make sure your strategy is profitable. If you are getting recommendation
from a noted “guru,” it just makes sense to see how his methodology has
performed in the past. I always recommend doing your own homework.
With the Key2Options program, you can test to find out the movement pattern of
the particular stock or index you are looking to trade. Unlike the majority of other
backtesting systems, which are extremely complicated to navigate or feel as if
you need to know how to write computer programming code, Key2Options was
designed so that you could backtest a trading plan with no computer coding experience needed.
You simply enter your profit targets and stop losses to find the optimal spot to take profits. It is as easy
as putting a number into the profit target box and then running the backtest.
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future performance, but it will at least give you an idea
of how your strategy has performed in different time periods and market conditions. After all, if a
strategy has not worked in the past, it probably will not work in the future.
Because of Key2Options, when I enter a trade, I have the confidence of knowing that my plan has been
vetted over a nine year period.
Tip #2: Diversify Your Option Strategies
The concept of diversification is the primary tenet of portfolio theory. The market is dynamic and ever
changing, and in options trading, you are basing your trading on either direction or volatility.
You can be short or long direction or volatility, and there are multiple combinations of trading strategies
for each. I am not saying you need to know every option strategy, but you do need to know what
environment the market is in.
We want to make sure we have a few different
strategies for different market conditions. When
volatility is low, we want to be a buyer of options.
When volatility is high, we want to be a seller of
options.
Why? Implied volatility (IV).
Implied volatility is one component of an option
price. Even if the stock price doesn’t move, an
option may increase or decrease in value due to
an increase or decrease in implied volatility.
Implied volatility shows how volatile the market
may be in the future.
Things like earnings announcements or pending
news of FDA approval on a drug can drive up
implied volatility and, therefore, make the option more expensive. Implied volatility helps you gauge the
expected price movement.
Option sellers might drive up the prices so high that it becomes too costly to buy the options. Once the
news has been released, the volatility comes down and the option loses value. Even though we had a
move from the news, the options proved to be more costly than movement in the stock, making a losing
trade for the person who bought the option.
When you are making your trade plan and determining your strategy mix, you need to keep in mind
your trading style. This can be the key to your success. If you are going to buy out of the money calls,
don’t expect to be right on 80% of your trades. Can you mentally and financially stand to lose on trades?
Using the Key2Options program, you can find out how your strategy performed historically.
The markets generally do not go straight up or down, you can have upside and downside trades running
simultaneously. If you spread the expirations over 90 days, you will likely have an opportunity to take a
profit on both positions at a given point in time.
If you are conservative buy nature, I would suggest a mix of 70% selling options and buying calls or credit
spreads, 30 % of the time. We want to be selling options when volatility is high. With Key2Options, you
can find stocks that have high implied volatility.
See the below screenshot, for example.
Not only can I find stocks with high IV, I can also use the IV Rank. This judges the stock versus itself. It is
important to know when the IV of a stock is high relative to itself.
From here, I can pick an option selling strategy, create a trading model and backtest it prior to
implementing the strategy.
Tip #3: Time – Friend or Foe?
Part of an option price is the time premium. Theta is the measurement of an options time decay. The
theta of an option reflects the amount by which the options value decreases every day.
Let’s look at an example. Pretend a call option is priced at $3.00 and has a theta of -.05. After two days,
and assuming the underlying price didn’t move and everything else is equal, the option would lose
$0.10.
Is this good or bad?
Well, that depends on
whether you are the
buyer or seller of the
option.
As the buyer of an
option, this is not
good. Regardless of
what the underlying
does, your option is
losing money on a
daily basis. The decay
speeds up as
expirations nears.
In the chart to the
right, we can see the
dramatic decline in the final 30 days.
The most frustrating thing about buying a call option is watching the stock price rise the week after your
option expires. When we buy options, it is important we buy expirations past 60 days. There are 2
reasons why we do this.
First, we are making a directional trade. We would always like our move to happen immediately
whether it be up or down. The fact is the further out your option expiration is, the better chance you
have of being correct.
Secondly, the time decay of our option is dramatically reduced. It is more expensive to buy the option
but the payoff is far greater.
I ran a long call model on Netflix (NFLX). The only parameter I changed was the days until expiration; I
used 30, 60, and 90 days to expiration.
The differences are dramatic. By going further out in time the profit dollars go from $43,744.00 for 30
days of expirations to $90,763.00 for 90 days of expiration. The profit factor goes up dramatically as
well. The profit factor measures the gains divided by losses for a particular run.
Many people who start out in options are lured by the price of options with 30 days until expiration
because they are less expensive. We can now quantify exactly what the changes can do by going further
out in time by using the Key2Options program.
Would you rather buy a cheap option or one that makes money? Whether you’re a buyer or seller of
options, it’s essential that you make sure to use time to your advantage.
Inner Confidence, Outer Discipline
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael McNelis is an Option Strategist with Key2Options. He began his
career working for J.W. Investment Bankers, then co-founded Hatshack,
a mall-based retail chain that eventually grew to 49 stores before being
acquired by the publicly traded company Genesco.
Michael has been trading financial markets for over 20 years and has
managed portfolios including equities, options and futures contacts. He
has extensive use of options for income through covered call writing,
hedging, and for capital appreciation, and has traded S&P, oil, natural
gas, gold and U.S. dollar futures contracts. 5
We want to make sure we treat trading like any other start-up business. With Tip #1, we see the
importance of a plan and how essential it is to know what to do under different circumstances. How will I
handle losses? Gains? Do I have a profit target? If my profit target is hit, will I close out the position or
convert it into another strategy? With the Key2Options program, you can cre¬ate and backtest all of
your theories without the need for extensive programming experience.
With Tip #2, we explored diversifying your trading strategy. It’s important to both buy and sell options,
and to understand that certain market conditions will determine whether we should be a buyer or seller.
You need not put all of your eggs in one basket. Different strategies will make you a more successful
trader.
And finally, with Tip #3, we discussed keeping time on your side. Time is one of the pricing components
of extrinsic value in an option. Each day, an options value erodes. We need to be aware that the price of
options erodes greatly during the last 30 days.
Options trading can create dramatic returns, both positive and negative. At Key2Options, we believe that
it is important to backtest to minimize the negative returns. Like we say at Key2Options:
Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan!
My 27% Weekly Option Strategy By Ryan Jones, www.SmartTrader.com
Are you looking for the best options strategy? My 27% Option Strategy is one of the best option
trading opportunities you will come across. When you see the power and long-term probabilities
of this strategy, you are going to wish you had known about this sooner.
My 27% Option Strategy is not the holy grail of trading strategies. There are risks, and I will
fully and completely explain those risks in this report. Do not take a trade with this strategy
unless you have thoroughly gone through the risks and have determined that these risks are
acceptable to you. In this report I will go into detail about what the risks are, why they exist, and
in what market conditions they exist in.
Having said that, it is my opinion that the risk/reward metrics associated with this strategy are
some of the best out there.
Each Trade Risk is Absolutely Limited (Most Trades Around $200 - $225)
Average Size Losses are $100 or Less
Probability of Success is Upwards of 70% - 80% (sometimes greater)
Average Expected Gain Win/Lose or Draw is 27% Per Trade
What does this mean? It means if you risk $200 each week, after 100 trades, you will have
produced approximately $5,400. Not bad considering that it is very conceivable that you will
never suffer a drawdown of more than $1,000 if you follow these guidelines. Add to this that you
are GUARANTEED a 25% - 35% gain if the market stays the same or moves down (even
crashes), thus making this an incredible opportunity all around. The risk only exists if the market
moves up significantly within a short period of time We are therefore limited in the application
of this strategy to SPY.
As you may know, SPY is the largest stock index ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). Stock indexes
have an inherent ―governor‖ if you will, that prevent large weekly moves to the upside from
being a normal event. In fact, over the last 22-years, SPY has only moved higher from Friday to
Friday 3% or more just 5% of the time. That means that 95% of the time, SPY has not moved
3% higher during the week.
We will be trading “My 27% Weekly Option Strategy” to take advantage of this
characteristic of SPY.
The graph below represents the Friday to Friday move in SPY over the last 1½ years. As you
can see, SPY has only moved higher by 3% just one time. It has only moved higher from Friday
to Friday by at least 2% on just 6 occurrences, and this during one of the most consistently
bullish years in the stock market.
With this strategy, there is no risk to the downside. If SPY tanks, even goes to zero, we are
guaranteed to make money that week, usually about $60 - $75 per position.
Once a trade is placed, the breakeven level is usually around the 2.5% level (meaning that on
Friday of the option expiration, if SPY closes at around 2.5% above the previous Friday’s close,
the trade could suffer a loss). This level is different for each trade, but is relatively close to this
regardless as long as the guidelines are met. When a loss occurs based on a 2.5% movement
higher, it is almost always small (less than $100). Only if the market makes a move higher by
more than 3% (in most cases) is there a risk of suffering a loss closer to the maximum risk ($200
- $230). For the maximum risk of $230 to be suffered, the market would have to make a move
higher of about 7% in 1-week (which is technically impossible barring a reaction from a
significant decline occurring first).
In other words, the risk/reward metrics are tremendously in our favor, but why? In this report,
I will show you exactly why that is.
Weekly Options & PPD
If you have not watched my video entitled ―The Power of PPD‖, you need to do so. I will briefly
cover PPD in this section and how they relate to weekly options.
Weekly Options are relatively new. Back in 2009, the CBOE introduced the first weekly options
for a limited number of securities. The option would come on the board on the opening of
Thursdays and expire the following Friday (8-days later).
So every Thursday, there would be 2 different weekly options available. One that expired the
next day, and another that would expire the following Friday.
Then, in 2014, CBOE extended weekly options to exist for 6 different expirations at the same
time. In other words, weekly options exist for this coming Friday, and each Friday after that for
the next 6-Fridays. I can buy or sell options for 6 different expirations at any given time, or at
the same time if I wish.
This provides unprecedented opportunities for individual traders. This is because of the
characteristics of options in general. The greatest time decay occurs at the end of the life of an
option. Prior to weekly options, the benefits that can be taken advantage of from accelerated
time decay were only available once a month. Now, there is a continual ability to take
advantage of accelerated time decay.
To demonstrate the magnitude of this benefit, we will take a look at a couple of examples. I
want to introduce to you what I call PPD. This stands for ―Price Per Day‖. It is a simple,
straight-forward way to gauge the value of an option during any given time link.
Let’s use SPY as an example since that is what we will be using with My 27% Weekly Option
Strategy. We will look at ―at the money‖ options since those will ALWAYS have the greatest
time value associated with them. The example below is based on calls, but the same process is
used for puts.
8-Days left = 1.70
30-Days Left = 3.25
To determine the PPD of these options, simply divide the time value of the price by the days left
until expiration. Since these are ―at the money‖ options, the entire price of the option is time
value.
8-Days left = 1.70 = 0.21 PPD
30-Days Left = 3.25 = 0.11 PPD
Here, you can see that the price of the 30-day option is obviously more expensive, but based on
the PPD, it is half the price of the 8-Day option.
However, this is not an accurate comparison. The reason is because we are comparing all 30-
days to all 8-days. The question is, what the PPD value is for each of the options over the next 8-
days only.
We already know that the 8-day option PPD value will remain the same since it expires in 8-
days. However, we can get a more accurate idea of the true PPD value over the next 8-days of
the 30-day option by subtracting the 8-day price and 8-days from the 30-days and re-calculating.
In other words, what will the 30-day option be worth when there is only 8-days left? That will
give us the PPD value between the 30-day and 8-day time span.
3.25 (30-day option price) – 1.70 (8-day option price) = 1.55
30-Days – 8-Days = 22-Days.
1.55/22-days = 0.07 PPD.
Accordingly, we can say that over the next 8-days, the 30-day option should devalue by 0.07
cents per day, or by a total of 0.52 cents. This means the 30-day option should drop from 3.25
down to 2.73.
Meanwhile, the 8-day option will drop to 0.00, or by 1.70 total.
So the 30-day option loses 0.52 while the 8-day option loses 1.70 over the next 8-days. The total
net difference is 1.18.
This is, of course, assuming that the underlying price of SPY goes nowhere over the next 8-days,
and is there for an illustration only of the time decay arbitrage that is available as a result of
weekly options. Obviously, markets move, so you cannot rely solely on the differences in PPD.
I cover this more thoroughly in my video ―The Power of PPD‖ and I strongly suggest you watch
that video.
PPD is the major contributing factor to the unprecedented opportunities we have with trading
weekly options. However, it is not the ONLY contributing factor.
For example, the obvious play in this situation would be to sell the 8-day option and buy the 30-
day option and make money off of the advanced time decay of the 8-day option. And, if that
were the only thing to consider, then you need to look at the lowest PPD option available.
We already know that the 30-day option has a PPD value of approximately 0.07. However, if
you look at an option that expires in 47-days, it has a PPD value over the next 8-days at only
0.04 cents PPD. Accordingly, it should only devalue by 0.32 total, while the 8-day option
devalues by 1.70 total. That difference is 1.38, a full 0.20 better than the 30-day option.
But the price of the 47-day option is 5.00.
What if the market tanks, say, by 2% - 3%?
You’ll still make 1.70 on the 8-day call option because it will expire worthless, but the 47-day
option drops from 5.00 down to around 2.25, meaning you would lose 2.75 on that leg. That is a
loss of 1.05.
In this same scenario, the move down would drop the 30-day option from 3.35 to around 1.00 for
a loss of 2.35. This is a 0.40 difference in loss size (1.05 net loss compared to a 0.65 net loss).
In short, price movement can negate the time decay arbitrage, which is why it is very important
to make sure you are taking into consideration both PPD and price movement before determining
a strategy, or trade to make.
I want you to notice something about this example. If SPY goes nowhere, you will make about
1.20 on the example trade. However, for you to lose about the same amount, SPY has to make a
significant move in either direction. So, on the one hand, you have to take into consideration
price movement, but on the other, the time decay arbitrage is a very powerful foundation from
which to build any weekly option strategy, whether spreads, or buying or selling individual
options.
The principle is buy low PPD options and sell high PPD options.
With that as the foundation, let’s get to the strategy.
My 27% Weekly Option Strategy
What is the 27% Weekly Options Strategy? This is a simple strategy where you buy one option
that has a low PPD and sell another option that has a high PPD.
The type of strategy is what is called an ITM Diagonal Put spread. ITM means ―in the money‖
diagonal put spread.
A diagonal spread is simply where you buy one option and sell another option that has a different
strike price and expiration date from the option you bought. As long as those two things are
different, you have created a diagonal spread. There are thousands of possible combination
diagonal spreads, so don’t think they are all the same. Remember, our foundation is going to be
to buy a low PPD option and sell a high PPD option within the confines of this strategy.
Here is what an ITM Diagonal Spread according to My 27% Weekly Option Strategy looks like
(actual trade).
Short Jan 30th 206.00 put from 1.81
Long Feb 6th 209.00 put from 4.04
For a Debit of 2.23
At the time of this trade, there was about one week left on the January 30th option and SPY was
trading at 205.50. This means the Jan 30th 206.00 put was 0.50 point in the money, while the
209.00 strike option was 3.50 points in the money.
The first thing I want to point out is the PPD of each of these options.
Short 206.00 put is 0.50 in the money. We therefore subtract that from the total price of the
option to determine the time value.
1.81 – 0.50 = 1.31.
Since there is 7-days left on the option, we divide the time value by 7:
1.31/7-days = 0.18 PPD
We do the same thing for the long option. The total time value of the long option is only 0.54.
However, we won’t be holding onto it until expiration, we will only be holding onto it for the
next 7-days. It is projected that this option will still have 0.25 of time value in 7-days if SPY
goes nowhere.
0.25/7-days = 0.04 PPD
Short Jan 30th 206.00 put from 1.81 (0.18 PPD)
Long Feb 6th 209.00 put from 4.04 (0.04 PPD)
For a Debit of 2.23
This means that our short option will decay at a rate of about 450% faster than the rate of decay
on the long option.
But, there is something else going on here. Remember, PPD is not the only contributing factor to
profitable (or losing) option strategies. Price movement is also a factor. Accordingly, My 27%
Weekly Option Strategy is a strategy that is designed to guarantee a profit if the market stays the
same or moves down (and even if it moves up within a certain amount).
And, in this case, it is guaranteed to make $77 if SPY stays the same or moves down.
Why is that?
The greatest time value of any option is always ―at the money‖. If SPY is trading at 205.00, the
205.00 put option will be the option with the greatest amount of time value. It will have more
time value than either the 204.00 put, or the 206.00 put (one is 1.00 ―out of the money‖ and the
other is 1.00 ―in the money‖). The further away the strike is from the ―at the money‖ strike, the
less time value.
Notice that we sold an option that is closer to the ―at the money‖ option, and bought an option
that further away, meaning that it should have less time value associated with it.
Here is a graph of a 7-day expiration of time value as of the close on January 23rd:
If I were to overlay the 14-day option time value graph, this is what it would look like:
The red graph is the 7-day option time value, the blue graph is the 14-day option time value. We
sell the 1.00 in the money put with 7-days left and buy the 14-day option that is 4.00 in the
money. Based on the close of option prices on January 23rd, this is what it would look like:
Time Value =
Sell 1.30
Buy 0.81
PPD Value =
Sell 0.18 PPD
Buy 0.04 PPD
Here is what the PPD graph looks like:
This should be abundantly clear why we structure the option spreads to sell high PPD and buy
low PPD. Let’s move on and take a closer look at the actual trade example:
Short Jan 30th 206.00 put from 1.81
Long Feb 6th 209.00 put from 4.04
For a Debit of 2.23
Before looking at the P/L range it is important to take notice that the difference between strikes
is at 3.00. This means that when the Jan 30th put expires, if SPY is at or below 206.00, that put
will be worthless. However, the absolute minimum value the 209.00 put can be is at 3.00. This
would mean that if SPY closes at 206.00 or lower on the short option expiration, the spread has
to be at least 3.00, no matter what (and will often be more than 3.00 because there could still be
time value left on the long option so that it is worth more than 3.00).
Since we bought the spread at 2.23, we know that at 206.00 or below, my minimum profit is
going to be 0.77 because we will be able to in essence exit the spread at 3.00.
We also know that our MINIMUM breakeven level is 209.00 – the Debit, or 206.77.
That is because the long option has to be worth at least 2.23 if SPY closes at 206.77 on the short
option expiration.
Since we bought the spread when SPY was trading at 205.50ish, we know we are going to make
money if SPY closes at or below 206.77 in 1-week.
The key here is how big the difference is between the debit on the trade, and the strike
differences. The smaller the debit, the better the trade (general rule).
Risks
The maximum risk with this trade is technically the debit of the trade. In this case, 2.23, or $223
trading a single lot. However, I use the term technical because in order for this risk to actually
occur, SPY has to SKY-ROCKET to ridiculous levels within about a 1-week period. In fact, it
has to move higher so much that the long put is worthless. That is the ONLY way you can lose
the maximum loss here.
Currently, a 1-week put that is 10.00 points out of the money is worth about 0.10. Accordingly,
we would lose 2.13 on the trade if SPY moved from 205.50ish (when we bought the spread) to
219.00 in just 1-week. That is almost a 7% move in a single week, and you still don’t quite lose
the maximum risk on the trade.
The Key with the risk is the value of the long put option at the time the short put option expires.
Here is where this gets really interesting.
Remember the time value graph above? The ―at the money‖ options ALWAYS have the greatest
time value.
That means if SPY moves from 205.50 to 209.00 in 1-week, our long 209.00 put becomes the ―at
the money‖ put, and we gain the greatest value possible from this leg of the trade with regard to
time value. That value is generally between 1.25 and 1.75, depending on the volatility in the
market (I have seen it over 2.00 in the past).
We will split the difference and use the average of 1.50. This means that we bought the put
spread for a debit of 2.23 and will exit it at 1.50, for a loss of 0.73.
That would occur with a move of about 2% in SPY from when we bought the spread. There will
be times when that loss is smaller, and times when that loss is bigger. Based on the projections,
check out the P/L chart of this trade:
SPY Closed right under 205.00 on January 23rd. The projected breakeven is around 208.50ish.
At around 210.00 is when you would be projected to lose what your minimum gain is at 206.00
or below. The largest profit projection on this trade is about $135 and would occur if SPY
closed at 206.00 on the short option expiration.
Over the long run, SPY has averaged a 2% move higher about 15% of the time from Friday to
Friday. However, that includes times when the market has been down significantly the previous
week(s), increasing the odds of a bounce of at least 2% the following week (or within a few
weeks of the move down).
On the chart above, there are 64 weeks. The blue bar is the SPY movement from Friday to
Friday.
12 Times Down > 1% for Minimum Profit of $81. +$972
34 Times Within 1% Higher or Lower for Avg Profit of $95 +$3,230
12 Times Between 1% - 2% Higher for Avg Profit of $30 +360
6 Times Up > 2% for an Avg. Loss of $100 ($600)
The net profit would be $4,022
At 64 trades total, that comes to an average gain win/lose or draw of $61. If you risk $220 on
each trade, that average gain comes to 27.7%
There is a lot of room for error. Consider this, of the 64 weeks above, 46 of them saw SPY close
LESS than 1% higher from the previous Friday’s close. If we only won the minimum $81 gain
72% of the time, and lost an average of $100 on every other trade (28% of the time), that still
comes to an average of just over $30 profit, or a gain of almost 15% per trade.
This is where many traders say bet the farm, mortgage the house and go all-in. This is where
many traders are foolish. There is a lot of room for error, but, there are also a lot of things that
can prevent this from being quite as consistent as we would like.
Extra Risks
Increased volatility can skew these numbers. What if, over the next 6-months, instead of seeing
6 times when the market moves higher by 2% or more, SPY sees the market move higher 6-times
by 3% or more, virtually guaranteeing a sizeable loss. Let’s average that at $200 per trade, for a
total loss of $1,200.
Then, we see that it moved higher between 2% - 3% on 12 occasions. That is another $1,200
loss at $100 per occurrence. That is 18 times in 26 weeks. If we gain the average of $80 the
remaining 8 weeks, we are looking at a gain of $640 from those weeks, and a total net loss of
$1,760.
Could that happen? Anything is possible. Is it probable? Absolutely not. From the 18-weeks
the market is higher in this example, it would be higher by 48%. If the other 8-weeks were down
2%, that is still a 32% gain in the stock market index in just 6-months. That would be some
crazy manipulation.
What if you can’t get a debit of $220? What if the volatility tanks and you can only get a debit
of $270? At that point, the potential gain is not worth it and I wouldn’t take the trade (see
―Guidelines‖ below). But what if that is what happens during weeks the market moved down
and you aren’t in to capture a gain? The next week, you can get your $220 debit, but then the
market moves higher and you take a loss. It doesn’t take too many of these types of occurrences
to take a big swipe out of your profit potential.
Or, what if you can get your debit of $220, the market moves up 2% and instead of breaking
even, the volatility in the puts drops like a rock and you end up losing $100?
You get the point. The probabilities are incredibly good long-term. But probabilities are not
certainties, and to trade them accordingly would be foolish.
Start small and apply proper money management. This will ensure that you can trade through
the anomalies, which will happen from time to time.
How to Address the Variables that can Diminish the Probabilities
There are a couple of things you can do to help diminish the risks associated with these variables.
The biggest thing you can do is, as I have said many times, START SMALL. I always prepare
for the worst case scenario. Compounding is what makes trading worth the risks. Start small,
then as you ACTUALLY make money with the strategy, start to compound.
There is a specific compounding table I have included in this report you can follow starting with
only $2,500. If you are only filled on trades half the time but can average the 27% gain per
trade, $2,500 turns into over $300,000 in just 5-years using this straight-forward, powerful
compounding plan.
If you only get filled half the time and can only manage to gain an average of 15% per trade, you
can still grow the account from $2,500 into over $100,000 during the same time period.
It pays to stick with a strategy and compound.
The second thing you can do is follow these guidelines for putting on the trades. You should
increase your probability of success and address at least some of the variables that could
diminish the overall potential profitability.
My 27% Weekly Option Strategy Guidelines
1. Make Breakeven at 2% above where the market is with 1-Week (approximately) left
on the short option.
A good estimate for breakeven is about 1.50 points above the short strike. Structure the trade
signal so this level is 2% above where the market is trading.
For example, if the market is trading at 200.00 with approximately 1-week left on the short
option, a 2% move to the upside would be 204.00. You would then sell the 1-week 202.50 put
and buy the 2-week 205.50 put for a debit of 2.40 on a limit.
You won’t always be filled, but that should be a very solid trade 90% of the time. Also, by the
time you are filled, the market may be closer to an at the money situation with the short option.
That is fine, whether you were filled immediately or 2-days after you placed the order and the
market moved higher a bit, you would still have the same position.
2. Make Sure You Place a Maximum 2.40 Debit Limit Order
You really don’t want to go higher than 2.40 on the debit. That gives you a minimum profit of
$60 per position. You can often get better than a 2.40 debit, especially if you place the trade a
day or two early after the market has made a significant move to the upside. I have been able to
get filled at almost 2.00 in some cases. However, if you are a day or two early, there is a slight
additional risk of the market exceeding the 2% level above where the market was trading when
you placed the order. However, that is offset by the minimum profit level, smaller maximum
risk and bigger overall average trade. 3-days early would be about the earliest I would consider
(Wednesday prior to the following Friday).
3. Don’t Take Trades After a Significant Down Move
4 of the 6 times on the weekly SPY movement chart that SPY went up by at least 2% were
preceded by a down week of more than 2%. There are some issues with this guideline,
especially if we move into more of a sideways to bearish market trend. This might keep you out
of a lot of good trades in that situation. You could then simply wait for a bit of a bounce and still
get in, or you could implement another strategy that is designed to make money if SPY moves
higher to diminish the overall risk of this strategy. This will drop your profit potential a bit, but
it will also drop your average loss size considerably.
My 27% Weekly Option Strategy Compounding Plan
You start with an account size of $2,500 trading a single
lot on every trade. As your account grows eclipsing each
number in the ―Account Size‖ column, you increase to the
corresponding trade size. If you begin increasing and
then start to hit a drawdown, you would decrease trade
size according to the same levels at which you originally
increased. By the time you hit 8-lots in the trade size, it
will be virtually impossible to give back all the profits.
The ―Non-Compounded column is where your account
would be if you stuck with a single lot the entire time.
Notice that once you hit $6,000 in the non-compounded
column ($3,500 in non-compounded profits), the
compounded account has grown to a whopping $65,500!
If you don’t stick with the trading, it is impossible for you
to ever realize this kind of success.
In closing, the Key to extraordinary success in trading is not whether you have the Holy Grail
trading strategy. In fact, such a strategy does not exist. The Key in trading is applying the proper
money management approach to whatever strategy you are trading.
THE SPECIAL OFFER
As you know by now, PPD stands for Price Per Day, and is one of the most powerful techniques
for finding the best option trading opportunities regardless of the option strategy you are trading.
As mentioned earlier, if you have not watched my video entitled ―The Power of PPD‖, you need
to do so.
My 27% Weekly Option Strategy is a simple, but powerful strategy designed to take advantage
of warped time decay between two options. Applied to weekly options in stock index ETF
markets like SPY, QQQ and IWM, I fully reveal the strategy with actual trade examples in the
link below.
Click here to access the video training about The Power of PPD & My 27% Weekly Options
Strategy
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Jones is considered one of the trading industries "most complete
traders." Starting his trading career at the early age of 16, he had traded
nearly every major market and strategy by the age of 21. At the age of 26,
Mr. Jones signed a book deal with John Wiley, making him one of the
youngest authors ever in the field of futures trading. His book, The
Trading Game, Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions, is still
considered the authority on the subject of trading and money management
by many leading traders.
Mr. Jones' advanced experience and knowledge across many trading fields such as technical
analysis, option trading, money management, and the S&P, have lead to several trading feats,
including turning a $15,000 account into over $107,000 in less than 90-days, short-term trading
the S&P (real money). Ryan is also the creator of QuantumCharts.com, which provides charting
and backtest trading strategy software. It uncovers profitable trading opportunities and creates
simple or complex automated trading systems.