Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, January 02, 2020

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

Banking (OVERWEIGHT): Boarding to the new period

Monetary policy relaxation, assets quality management and

optimisation of the funding structure are the main factors for the banking sector in 2020. Loans will grow by 12.1% for our banking

universe driven by government-related programs. NIM is expected to dip by 8bps to 5.8% due to further declines in asset yields to

8.8%. PSAK 71 implementation may have quite an impact for banks’ performance as provisioning expenses will be more volatile in our

view. As such, credit costs are expected to tick up to 164bps with a

2.3% gross NPLs ratio. All in all, we estimate 8.5% yoy net profits

growth this year for our banking universe. OVERWEIGHT.

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Coal Mining (OVERWEIGHT): Have coal prices bottomed?

We believe coal prices will remain soft in 2020 given weak coal

imports: a) by China - with greater expected domestic production and persisting uncertainty over its imports policy, and b) by

developed countries such as Japan, South Korea and EU-27. Nonetheless, we also foresee some support for coal prices from the

strong coal demand from ASEAN countries and India. As the coal sector is trading at -1SD, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the

sector. We prefer coal companies with exposure to low-CV coal, i.e.

PTBA.

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MARKET NEWS MACROECONOMY

▪ Government: 2019 state revenue realization outlook

▪ Government still maintain electricity budget for 2020 SECTOR

▪ Wijaya Karya Bangunan Gedung (WEGE): Targets IDR15tn new contract in 2020

PREVIOUS REPORT ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: December 2019 Inflation

Outlook: Seasonally Higher

▪ December 2019 Consumer Confidence: The Highest Level in 15

Years ▪ Surya Citra Media: Staying Resilient

▪ United Tractors: Komatsu sales remain soft in November 2019 ▪ BTPN Syariah: Fully valued

▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Lower monthly sales

▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Collabs and Digital as the Drivers ▪ Semen Indonesia: On track to meet our targets

▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: 4Q19 Slower as Expected ▪ Astra International: Solid market share above 50% in

November 2019 ▪ Bukit Asam: Higher production to support earnings

▪ November Outlook: Picking Up

KEY INDEX

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 6,300 (0.5) - 355

Thailand 1,580 0.1 - 996

Philippines 7,815 (0.3) - 127

Malaysia 1,589 (1.7) - 400

Singapore 3,223 0.0 - 453

Regional

China 3,050 0.3 - 49,604

Hong Kong 28,190 (0.5) - 6,221

Japan 23,657 (0.8) - 7,667

Korea 2,198 (0.3) - 4,710

Taiwan 11,997 (0.5) - 3,918

India 41,306 0.1 0.1 167

Nasdaq 8,973 0.3 - 85,810

Dow Jones 28,538 0.3 - 10,390

KEY INDEX

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318

Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454

Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87

Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338

Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908

Regional

China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889

Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093

Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278

Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790

Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534

India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495

Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797

Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490

CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,866 0.8 1.8 -

BI7DRRR % 5.00 - - (1.0)

10y Gov Indo bond 7.07 (0.0) (0.1) 0.0

CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9

BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0)

10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9)

HARD COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 68 - (0.2) (33.7)

Gold US$/toz 1,518 0.1 3.8 0.1

Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,950 2.0) 2.4 31.5

Tin US$/mt.ton 17,178 0.9 4.1 (12.0)

SOFT COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,403 (0.8) (3.9) 1.6

Corn US$/mt.ton 144 (0.3) 7.6 8.3

Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 61 0.5 9.6 0.5

Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 66 (1.0) 5.7 22.7

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 3,016 0.7 13.2 54.4

Rubber USd/kg 146 0.5 4.1 0.8

Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5

Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 (1.7) (4.6) (1.3)

Sugar US$/MT 359 (0.6) 4.1 8.0

Wheat US$/ton 152 0.5 3.1 0.9

Soy Oil US$/lb 34 (1.9) 13.4 25.2

SoyBean US$/by 943 0.4 7.6 6.9

Source: Bloomberg

HARD COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0)

Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2

Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6

Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1)

SOFT COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7

Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6

Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3

Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8

Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6

Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5

Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5

Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6

Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1)

Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9

Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3)

Source: Bloomberg

Equity Research Banking

See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com

Thursday,2 January 2020

Banking OVERWEIGHT

Maintain Boarding to the new period

Monetary policy relaxation, assets quality management and optimisation of the funding structure are the main factors for the banking sector in 2020. Loans will grow by 12.1% for our banking universe driven by government-related programs. NIM is expected to dip by 8bps to 5.8% due to further declines in asset yields to 8.8%. PSAK 71 implementation may have quite an impact for banks’ performance as provisioning expenses will be more volatile in our view. As such, credit costs are expected to tick up to 164bps with a 2.3% gross NPLs ratio. All in all, we estimate 8.5% yoy net profits growth this year for our banking universe. OVERWEIGHT.

Modest loans growth projected. With moderate GDP growth projected this year, we estimate loans growth of 12.1% yoy for our banking universe, mainly driven by government-related programs such as subsidised mortgages and KUR. BBRI and BBTN are the main beneficiaries from these two programs. Additionally, PSAK 71 implementation should impact the loans growth projection going forward as the new standard requires banks to allocate provisions for commitment or undrawn loans facilities. We thus believe that BUKU IV banks are in a better position to navigate during the first year of PSAK 71 implementation supported by their comprehensive internal infrastructure particularly on macro assumption model and risk management team. Expect a lower NIM. Amid a lower policy rate at 5.0%, NIM is expected to drop by 8bps to 5.8% for our banking universe. This mainly reflects a bigger drop in the asset yields to 8.8%. We also believe that there is limited room for banks to lower their lending rates despite 100bps policy rate cuts last year. This is because banks did not reprice up their lending rates inline with the 175bps hike in policy rate back in 2018. Going forward, we expect banks to focus more on assets quality as this will impact their credit costs and consequently net profits growth and ROAEs.

8.5% earnings growth expected this year. Amid the lower interest rate environment and focus on assets quality, we expect 8.5% yoy net profits growth this year coming from: 1) 12.1% yoy loans growth, 2) a slight drop in NIM to 5.8%, 3) modest opex growth of 9.0% resulting in a 43.8% Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR), and 4) an uptick in credit costs to 164bps with 2.3% gross NPLs ratio and 159% Loan Loss Coverage (LLC) ratio.

OVERWEIGHT: BMRI is our top pick. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector with BMRI as our top pick due to its decent assets quality management by focusing on top tier corporate borrowers and specific consumer loans with manageable risk and attractive yields, ie pension and payroll loans.

BMRI relative to JCI Index

xxxx

BBTN relative to JCI Index

xxxx Source : Bloomberg

x Eka Savitri

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext.3506

eka.savitri@danareksa.co.id

Target Price

Market Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)

Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F 2020F

Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ BUY 9,000 358,167 12.8 12.4 1.8 1.7 14.0 Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ BUY 2,700 22,445 18.0 10.2 0.9 0.8 8.6 Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ NOT RATED N/A 542,722 15.9 14.7 2.6 2.3 16.9 Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ BUY 9,000 146,392 9.2 8.8 1.2 1.1 13.0 BPD Jatim BJTM IJ BUY 800 10,258 7.6 7.0 1.1 1.1 15.4 BTPN Syariah BTPS IJ HOLD 4,200 32,741 25.3 19.8 6.7 5.4 30.1 BTPN BTPN IJ HOLD 3,500 26,484 10.3 9.2 0.9 0.8 9.3 Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ HOLD 33,000 833,779 28.2 25.1 4.8 4.2 17.9

Equity Research Coal Mining

See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com

Thursday,02 January 2020

Coal Mining OVERWEIGHT

Maintain Have coal prices bottomed?

We believe coal prices will remain soft in 2020 given weak coal imports: a) by China - with greater expected domestic production and persisting uncertainty over its imports policy, and b) by developed countries such as Japan, South Korea and EU-27. Nonetheless, we also foresee some support for coal prices from the strong coal demand from ASEAN countries and India. As the coal sector is trading at -1SD, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector. We prefer coal companies with exposure to low-CV coal, i.e. PTBA. 2019: Sharp decline in high CV coal prices, but solid low CV coal prices. The Newcastle thermal coal spot prices (NWC) have declined sharply by 34.8% ytd to USD66.50/ton due to weak coal demand from Japan, South Korea and the EU in 1H19. Nonetheless, the low-CV coal prices (ICI-4) remain relatively firm (jumped by 9.9% ytd to USD34.1/ton), supported by China’s resilient coal imports as its domestic production was affected by stringent mine safety checks and unfavorable weather conditions. China’s thermal coal imports increased by 7.6% yoy to 224.1mn tons in 11M19 amid soft demand from coal-based power plants. Developed countries’ coal imports to soften. China has continued to boost its domestic coal supported by better railway networks and tighter government control of coal imports. Hence, China’s coal imports are expected to decline at CAGR of 7.1% in 2018 – 2021. Japan has long-term plans to restart nuclear power plants and the government of South Korea has announced plans to reduce the usage of coal-based power plants in the long-term. Both Japan and South Korea are expected to lower their coal imports in the coming years. Strong coal demand from India and ASEAN to sustain coal prices. We believe solid demand from India and South-East Asian (ASEAN) countries will help to sustain coal prices. India’s coal imports are expected to remain firm with: a) solid economic growth to boost coal consumption, which is expected to outpace domestic coal production and b) logistics issues and issues surrounding mining approvals and acquisitions which will inhibit coal production growth in the country. With more coal power plants to be built in ASEAN, especially in Vietnam and Indonesia, we expect solid demand growth in this region to sustain coal prices going forward. Mixed coal production from exporters. On the supply side, coal exports growth is expected to post a slight decline at 3-year CAGR of 0.7% in 2018 – 2021. Exports from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, are expected to soften off a high base and because the government continues to cap production to preserve coal reserves for domestic purposes. Nonetheless, exports from Australia, the world’s second-largest exporter are expected to recover after 2019’s disruptions. Remaining OVERWEIGHT mainly on undemanding valuations. While we expect further consolidation in the coal price from USD78/ton in 2019 to USD72/ton in 2020 and to USD70/ton in 2021 owing to soft demand imports, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector as the sector is currently trading at an undemanding valuation at -1SD. We like companies with exposure to low-CV coal, namely Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ.BUY.TP: IDR3,700).

PTBA relative to JCI Index

xxxx

ADRO relative to JCI Index

xxxx Source : Bloomberg

x Stefanus Darmagiri

(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530

stefanus.darmagiri@danareksa.co.id

Target Price

Market Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)

Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F 2020F

Bukit Asam PTBA IJ BUY 3,700 29,511 7.1 6.9 1.6 1.4 21.7 Adaro Energy ADRO IJ BUY 1,800 49,738 7.3 8.3 0.9 0.9 10.6 Indo Tambangraya ITMG IJ BUY 15,000 12,966 7.2 7.6 1.0 1.0 13.5 Harum Energy HRUM IJ HOLD 1,300 3,502 12.9 11.6 0.8 0.8 7.2 United Tractors UNTR IJ BUY 28,000 80,291 7.1 7.4 1.3 1.2 17.0

Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, January 02, 2020

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

MACROECONOMY Government: 2019 state revenue realization outlook

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) mentioned that as of year-end 2019, excise and customs realization has exceeded 2019 Budget set at IDR208.8tn. This high realization is believed to come from tobacco excise tax and alcohol. The

same strategy to boost the excise and customs revenue will still be applied in 2020, in the form of combating illegal cigarettes and alcohol. Meanwhile, the MoF estimated that the tax revenue may only achieve ~72% of the

IDR1,577tn target in 2019 Budget. (Investor Daily)

Government still maintain electricity budget for 2020

Despite of recent decision to not adjust electricity tariff for financially capable 900 VA users in 2020, the government ensures that the electricity subsidies in 2020 will be still maintained at IDR54.8tn. However, the Ministry of Finance

still cautious on some macro indicators development that may affect the budget such as IDR/USD and also ICP.

(Investor Daily)

CORPORATE Wijaya Karya Bangunan Gedung: Targets IDR15tn new contract in 2020

PT Wijaya Karya Bangunan Gedung (WEGE) targets to secure IDR14.9tn of new contract in this year, higher than IDR11.98tn target in 2019 in the back of upcoming better construction market and the ending of political year. The

company also targets 15-20% growth of the net profit and sales, in-line with the new contract target. As of 2nd

week of December 2019, the company has secured 80% of new contract target, reaching IDR9.6tn. The company expects to get another IDR500bn of new contract until year-end 2019. (Kontan)

MARKET NEWS

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

Danareksa Universe 5,146,194 232,067 255,404 223 245 5.8% 10.1% 22.2 20.1 16.3 14.9 3.4 3.1 15.8 16.0

Auto 280,349 20,646 21,942 415 441 -4.7% 6.3% 13.6 12.8 9.2 8.5 1.9 1.8 14.6 14.4

Astra International ASII BUY 6,925 8,000 280,349 20,646 21,942 510 542 503 525 -4.7% 6.3% 13.6 12.8 9.2 8.5 1.9 1.8 14.6 14.4

Banks 1,420,605 79,661 89,561 606 682 9.3% 12.4% 17.8 15.9 2.8 2.5 16.3 16.5

BCA BBCA HOLD 33,425 33,000 824,094 29,265 32,883 1,187 1,334 1,187 1,334 13.2% 12.4% 28.2 25.1 N/A N/A 4.8 4.2 18.1 17.9

BNI BBNI BUY 7,850 10,000 146,392 15,905 17,363 853 931 853 931 5.9% 9.2% 9.2 8.4 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 13.9 13.6

Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 2,120 2,700 22,451 1,246 2,203 118 208 118 208 -55.6% 76.8% 18.0 10.2 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 5.1 8.6

Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 7,675 9,000 358,167 28,014 31,140 600 667 600 667 12.0% 11.2% 12.8 11.5 N/A N/A 1.8 1.7 14.8 15.1

BTPN BTPN HOLD 3,250 3,500 26,484 2,582 2,870 317 352 317 352 31.2% 11.2% 10.3 9.2 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 10.8 9.3

BTPS BTPS HOLD 4,250 4,200 32,741 1,296 1,651 168 214 168 214 34.3% 27.4% 25.3 19.8 N/A N/A 6.7 5.4 29.1 30.1

BPD Jatim BJTM BUY 685 800 10,277 1,353 1,451 90 97 90 97 7.4% 7.2% 7.6 7.1 N/A N/A 1.1 1.1 15.4 15.4

Cement 141,214 3,395 4,183 353 435 -19.6% 23.2% 41.6 33.8 15.8 12.4 2.5 2.5 6.2 7.4

Indocement INTP HOLD 19,025 21,600 70,035 1,626 1,823 442 495 442 495 41.9% 12.1% 43.1 38.4 20.9 22.8 3.0 2.9 6.9 7.7

Semen Indonesia SMGR BUY 12,000 17,500 71,178 1,769 2,360 298 398 298 398 -42.5% 33.4% 40.2 30.2 13.7 8.6 2.2 2.1 5.6 7.2

Cigarettes 346,245 24,398 26,421 206 223 14.4% 8.3% 14.2 13.1 9.7 8.8 4.0 3.8 29.3 29.6

Gudang Garam GGRM BUY 53,000 60,850 101,977 10,094 11,042 5,246 5,739 5,246 5,739 29.5% 9.4% 10.1 9.2 7.0 6.3 2.0 1.9 21.2 21.0

HM Sampoerna HMSP HOLD 2,100 2,100 244,268 14,304 15,379 123 132 123 132 5.7% 7.5% 17.1 15.9 12.0 11.1 6.8 6.5 40.1 41.9

Construction 101,514 10,742 12,000 144 161 -7.7% 11.7% 9.5 8.5 8.88 7.85 1.1 1.0 12.7 12.7

Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY 1,990 3,400 17,850 2,320 2,738 259 305 271 318 34.1% 18.0% 7.7 6.5 4.5 3.3 1.1 0.9 14.7 15.3

Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY 1,585 2,300 9,827 1,311 1,455 211 235 245 280 -12.7% 11.0% 7.5 6.8 4.6 4.3 0.7 0.6 9.8 9.9

Adhi Karya ADHI BUY 1,175 2,300 4,184 733 847 206 238 288 332 13.8% 15.6% 5.7 4.9 4.6 4.3 0.6 0.5 10.7 10.4

Waskita Karya WSKT BUY 1,485 2,900 20,157 2,903 3,215 214 237 214 237 -26.7% 10.7% 6.9 6.3 10.3 9.8 1.0 0.9 15.2 15.0

Waskita Beton WSBP BUY 304 410 8,014 776 899 29 34 29 34 -29.8% 15.9% 10.3 8.9 11.3 9.6 1.0 0.9 9.7 10.8

Wika Beton WTON BUY 450 680 3,922 507 574 58 66 58 66 4.2% 13.2% 7.7 6.8 5.0 4.5 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.8

Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 5,175 6,700 37,559 2,192 2,272 302 313 302 313 -0.5% 3.6% 17.1 16.5 16.9 14.8 2.0 1.8 12.3 11.4

Consumer 1,871,776 20,591 22,423 211 230 1.0% 8.9% 90.9 83.5 55.7 50.5 23.3 21.2 26.8 26.6

Indofood CBP ICBP BUY 11,150 12,900 130,030 5,157 5,590 442 479 442 479 12.7% 8.4% 25.2 23.3 19.9 18.5 5.4 4.8 22.5 21.8

Indofood INDF BUY 7,925 8,800 69,585 4,643 5,272 529 600 529 600 11.4% 13.5% 15.0 13.2 6.9 6.2 1.9 1.8 13.3 14.0

Unilever UNVR HOLD 42,000 46,000 1,602,300 7,465 8,009 196 210 196 210 -18.1% 7.3% 214.7 200.1 148.6 139.1 210.7 210.0 98.3 105.2

Kino Indonesia KINO BUY 3,430 5,000 4,900 514 295 360 206 360 206 242.3% -42.6% 9.5 16.6 11.7 10.6 1.9 1.7 21.4 10.8

Mayora Indah MYOR BUY 2,050 3,050 45,835 2,010 2,362 90 106 90 107 17.1% 17.5% 22.8 19.4 12.7 11.1 4.7 4.0 22.1 22.0

Sido Muncul SIDO HOLD 1,275 1,300 19,125 803 895 54 60 54 60 21.0% 11.5% 23.8 21.4 20.1 17.9 6.2 5.9 26.9 28.3

Healthcare 83,783 2,784 3,032 183 204 223.8% 11.7% 30.1 27.6 18.3 16.7 4.0 3.5 13.8 13.4

Kalbe Farma KLBF BUY 1,620 1,800 75,938 2,620 2,851 56 61 56 61 6.6% 8.8% 29.0 26.6 18.6 17.0 4.7 4.2 17.0 16.6

Phapros PEHA BUY 1,075 1,200 903 96 110 115 130 115 130 -27.2% 13.7% 9.4 8.2 5.3 4.1 1.0 0.5 11.7 7.7

Kimia Farma KAEF HOLD 1,350 1,780 6,943 67 71 12 13 12 13 -83.9% 6.5% 103.5 97.2 21.2 19.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8

Heavy Equipment 80,291 11,318 10,808 3,034 2,897 1.7% -4.5% 7.1 7.4 3.3 3.3 1.3 1.2 19.9 17.0

United Tractors UNTR BUY 21,525 28,000 80,291 11,318 10,808 3,034 2,897 2,969 2,817 1.7% -4.5% 7.1 7.4 3.3 3.3 1.3 1.2 19.9 17.0

Industrial Estate 19,432 1,742 1,930 28 31 82.1% 10.8% 11.2 10.1 8.0 6.8 1.2 1.2 11.2 12.0

Puradelta Lestari DMAS HOLD 296 300 14,267 1,159 1,352 24 28 24 28 133.7% 16.7% 12.3 10.6 11.4 9.2 2.0 2.0 16.1 18.6

Bekasi Fajar BEST BUY 216 350 2,084 477 359 49 37 49 37 12.9% -24.7% 4.4 5.8 4.2 5.2 0.5 0.4 10.9 7.6

Surya Semesta SSIA BUY 655 1,000 3,082 106 219 23 47 23 47 178.9% 106.6% 29.1 14.1 5.4 3.9 0.8 0.7 2.7 5.3

Media 44,102 3,348 3,555 115 122 11.0% 6.2% 13.2 12.4 8.8 7.9 2.6 2.3 21.5 19.9

Media Nusantara Citra MNCN BUY 1,630 1,400 23,270 2,086 2,150 146 151 139 151 36.3% 3.1% 11.2 10.8 7.4 6.7 2.0 1.8 19.5 17.5

Surya Citra Media SCMA BUY 1,410 1,600 20,832 1,262 1,405 85 95 85 95 -15.0% 11.3% 16.5 14.8 11.5 10.3 4.0 3.5 25.7 25.3

Mining 159,416 15,814 16,270 178 183 -9.7% 2.9% 10.1 9.8 4.5 4.4 1.1 1.1 11.1 11.0

Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 1,555 1,700 49,738 6,132 5,696 192 178 192 178 1.9% -7.1% 8.1 8.7 3.3 3.4 0.9 0.9 11.4 10.2

Timah TINS BUY 825 1,700 6,144 899 976 121 131 121 131 84.2% 8.6% 6.8 6.3 4.4 4.0 0.9 0.8 13.1 13.1

Vale Indonesia INCO BUY 3,640 4,400 36,168 680 1,311 68 132 68 132 -22.6% 92.9% 53.2 27.6 11.4 8.5 1.3 1.3 2.5 4.7

Aneka Tambang ANTM BUY 840 1,200 20,186 807 856 34 36 34 36 -7.7% 6.1% 25.0 23.6 9.3 9.3 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.2

Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 2,660 4,400 30,645 4,832 4,977 419 432 419 432 -3.8% 3.0% 6.3 6.2 4.3 4.2 1.8 1.6 29.2 27.1

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 11,475 17,000 12,966 2,053 2,030 1,817 1,797 1,817 1,797 -45.5% -1.1% 6.3 6.4 2.4 2.3 1.0 1.0 15.2 15.7

Harum Energy HRUM BUY 1,320 1,500 3,569 411 423 152 156 152 156 -10.8% 3.0% 8.7 8.4 0.7- 1.1- 0.8 0.8 9.4 9.4

Plantation 38,184 578 1,676 66 192 -67.3% 190.0% 66.1 22.8 15.1 9.2 1.4 1.3 2.1 6.0

Astra Agro Lestari AALI BUY 14,575 13,000 28,052 440 1,201 229 624 229 624 -69.4% 173.0% 63.8 23.4 14.9 9.5 1.5 1.4 2.3 6.2

PP London Sumatra LSIP BUY 1,485 1,550 10,132 138 475 20 70 20 70 -58.3% 244.2% 73.4 21.3 15.9 8.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 5.6

Poultry 126,837 5,256 6,551 173 216 -25.0% 24.6% 24.1 19.4 14.4 12.4 3.8 3.3 16.3 18.2

Charoen Pokphand CPIN HOLD 6,500 6,500 106,587 3,509 4,309 214 263 215 262 -23.0% 22.8% 30.4 24.7 19.6 16.7 5.1 4.5 17.5 19.3

Japfa Comfeed JPFA BUY 1,535 2,050 18,000 1,465 1,882 125 160 135 171 -32.4% 28.5% 12.3 9.6 7.4 6.4 1.7 1.5 14.5 16.7

Malindo Feedmill MAIN BUY 1,005 1,500 2,250 282 360 126 161 127 161 -1.0% 27.7% 8.0 6.2 6.4 5.6 1.0 0.9 13.5 15.3

Property 90,084 6,837 7,154 57 60 6.2% 4.6% 13.2 12.6 8.9 8.6 1.2 1.1 9.4 9.1

Alam Sutera ASRI BUY 238 320 4,677 663 953 34 49 41 56 -31.7% 43.7% 7.1 4.9 7.9 6.4 0.5 0.4 6.8 9.0

Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1,255 1,600 24,155 2,178 2,201 113 114 113 114 68.4% 1.1% 11.1 11.0 8.2 9.2 0.9 0.8 8.0 7.5

Ciputra Development CTRA BUY 1,040 1,350 19,303 848 1,056 46 57 46 57 -28.5% 24.5% 22.8 18.3 12.3 10.3 1.3 1.2 5.8 6.8

Pakuw on Jati PWON BUY 570 700 27,451 2,638 2,355 55 49 54 51 3.7% -10.7% 10.4 11.7 6.9 7.0 1.8 1.6 19.2 14.9

Summarecon SMRA HOLD 1,005 1,250 14,499 510 589 35 41 35 41 13.7% 15.5% 28.4 24.6 11.3 10.7 2.0 1.9 7.2 7.8

Utility 52,604 3,866 4,075 159 168 -11.9% 5.4% 13.6 12.9 5.3 4.9 1.4 1.3 10.2 10.2

PGN PGAS BUY 2,170 2,700 52,604 3,866 4,075 159 168 171 179 -11.9% 5.4% 13.6 12.9 5.3 4.9 1.4 1.3 10.2 10.2

Retail 45,005 3,164 3,319 117 123 19.4% 4.9% 14.2 13.6 9.4 8.7 4.1 3.6 30.2 28.0

Ramayana RALS BUY 1,065 1,450 7,557 650 668 92 94 92 94 10.7% 2.8% 11.6 11.3 6.7 6.2 1.8 1.7 16.3 15.6

Matahari Department Store LPPF BUY 4,210 4,100 11,809 1,448 1,491 516 532 516 532 32.0% 3.0% 8.2 7.9 4.9 4.6 5.5 4.0 73.0 58.8

Ace Hardw are ACES SELL 1,495 1,550 25,639 1,066 1,160 62 68 62 68 10.5% 8.8% 24.1 22.1 19.0 17.0 5.4 4.8 23.7 23.0

Telco 511,692 23,817 26,809 126 142 57.0% 12.6% 21.5 19.1 6.5 5.9 3.4 3.1 16.5 17.2

Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM BUY 3,970 5,100 393,277 21,651 23,964 219 242 219 242 20.1% 10.7% 18.2 16.4 6.4 5.7 3.7 3.3 21.0 21.1

Indosat ISAT BUY 2,910 4,400 15,813 (1,646) (1,652) (303) (304) (294) (304) 31.5% -0.4% (9.6) (9.6) 4.2 4.4 1.7 2.0 (15.9) (19.0)

XL Axiata EXCL BUY 3,150 4,100 33,667 509 708 48 66 48 66 -115.4% 39.1% 66.1 47.6 5.2 4.5 1.8 1.7 2.7 3.7

Tow er Bersama TBIG BUY 1,230 1,070 27,868 826 1,029 36 45 36 45 21.4% 24.6% 33.7 27.1 12.5 11.7 6.0 5.5 20.5 21.0

Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 805 960 41,067 2,477 2,760 49 54 49 54 14.6% 11.4% 16.6 14.9 9.6 8.8 4.4 3.9 28.6 27.9

Transportation 2,161 242 283 34 40 7.6% 16.9% 8.9 7.6 3.6 2.6 1.0 0.9 11.0 12.1

Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal IPCC BUY 680 1,350 1,237 155 195 85 107 85 287 -8.8% 25.8% 8.0 6.3 3.4 2.3 1.1 1.0 13.6 16.0

Jasa Armada Indonesia IPCM BUY 175 325 925 87 88 16 17 16 503 58.2% 1.1% 10.6 10.5 4.0 3.5 0.8 0.8 8.1 7.9

EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE

Equity

Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)

Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, January 02, 2020

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

LEADERS Price as on Code 30-Dec-19 27-Dec-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Vale Indonesia INCO 3,640 3,530 3.1 4.9 17.0 - BUY

Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR 805 785 2.5 5.2 5.9 - BUY

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 11,475 11,225 2.2 2.2 8.0 - BUY

Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,005 990 1.5 (0.5) (1.0) - HOLD

BPD Jatim BJTM 685 675 1.5 0.7 3.0 - BUY

Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,630 1,610 1.2 (1.5) 27.3 - BUY

PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,485 1,470 1.0 10.0 8.0 - BUY

BTPS BTPS 4,250 4,210 1.0 (1.4) 8.1 - HOLD

Bekasi Fajar BEST 216 214 0.9 2.9 8.0 - BUY

Aneka Tambang ANTM 840 835 0.6 0.6 6.3 - BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on Code 30-Dec-19 27-Dec-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Charoen Pokphand CPIN 6,500 6,875 (5.5) (3.7) (4.4) - HOLD

Kimia Farma KAEF 1,250 1,315 (4.9) (13.2) (34.6) - HOLD

Indocement INTP 19,025 19,775 (3.8) (3.8) (5.7) - HOLD

Sampoerna Agro SGRO 2,380 2,470 (3.6) (3.6) (2.1) - BUY

Ace Hardware ACES 1,495 1,550 (3.5) (5.7) (4.2) - SELL

XL Axiata EXCL 3,150 3,250 (3.1) (2.2) (7.1) - BUY

Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 140 144 (2.8) (2.8) 10.2 - SELL

Japfa Comfeed JPFA 1,535 1,575 (2.5) (1.9) (8.9) - BUY

Surya Citra Media SCMA 1,410 1,445 (2.4) 0.7 15.6 - BUY

Jasa Marga JSMR 5,175 5,300 (2.4) (2.4) - - BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, January 02, 2020

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

PREVIOUS REPORTS

▪ Surya Citra Media: Staying Resilient

▪ United Tractors: Komatsu sales remain soft in November 2019 ▪ BTPN Syariah: Fully valued

▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Lower monthly sales ▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Collabs and Digital as the Drivers

▪ Semen Indonesia: On track to meet our targets

▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: 4Q19 Slower as Expected ▪ Astra International: Solid market share above 50% in November 2019

▪ Bukit Asam: Higher production to support earnings ▪ November Outlook: Picking Up

▪ Cigarette: Navigating strong headwinds

▪ Construction: Moving in the right direction ▪ Puradelta Lestari : Double-edged sword

▪ Telco: Year-end Bonanza with content ▪ Bank Mandiri: Maintaining its focus

▪ Surya Semesta Internusa: Winter is over

▪ Pembangunan Perumahan: Cutting our targets ▪ Bank Negara Indonesia: Focusing on its funding cost

▪ Plantation: Dry and Feverish is Good For CPO Price ▪ November 2019 Inflation Update: Lower than Expected

▪ Telco: Takeaways, Kemkominfo says take action ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Solid Performance

▪ Waskita Beton Precast: Seeking greater independence

▪ Matahari Department Store: The Discounter, Discounted ▪ November 2019 Inflation Outlook: Remaining Mild

▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Starting a new chapter ▪ Kalbe Farma : Healthy outlook on strong government support

▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Weak recognition from property development

▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Next year should be better ▪ United Tractors : Soft Komatsu sales volume in October 2019

▪ Adaro Energy: 9M19: Supported by Kestrel acquisitions ▪ Distribusi Voucher Nusantara: Solid positioning promises fast growth

▪ Unilever Indonesia: Steady growth on the cards ▪ October Update: Posting a Surplus Again

▪ Plantation: Tailwinds For the Industry

▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: On a sustainable growth path ▪ Indofood Sukses Makmur: Still a solid value play

▪ Astra International: Market share is buoyant at 53% in 10M19 ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Upside emerges

▪ Tower Bersama Infrastructure: Solid operational effort but earnings fell short

▪ October Outlook: Modest Improvement Expected ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Impacted by Promotions Timing Difference

Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, January 02, 2020

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Gedung BRI II Lt.23, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav.44-46 Bendungan Hilir, Tanah Abang – Jakarta Pusat 10210 Indonesia Indonesia Tel (62 21) 50914100 Fax (62 21) 2520990

Equity Research Team S

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Maria Renata

maria.renata@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext.3513 Construction, Toll Road, Cement

Stefanus Darmagiri

stefanus.darmagiri@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal

Natalia Sutanto

natalia.sutanto@danareksa.com (62-21) 50914100 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco

Niko Margaronis

niko.margaronis@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext.3512 Telco, Tower, Utilities

Helmy Kristanto

helmy.kristanto@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3500 Head of Research, Strategy

Eka Savitri

Eka.savitri@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext.3506 Banking

Victor Stefano

victor.stefano@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext.3503 Poultry, Property, Industrial Estate

Ehrliech Suhartono

ehrliech@danareksa.co.id

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3132

Laksmita Armandani

laksmitaa@danareksa.co.id

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3125

Vera Ongyono

vera.ongyono@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3120

Tuty Sutopo

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Wisnu Budhiargo

Wisnu.budhiargo@danareksa.co.id

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3117

Upik Yuzarni

upik_y@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3137

Adeline Solaiman

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(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3503

Rendy Ben Philips

rendy.philips@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3148

Ignatius Teguh Prayoga

ignatius.prayoga@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext.3511 Port

Andreas Kenny

andreas.kenny@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext.3509 Retail, Media, Plantation

Thalia Kadharusman

thalia.kadharusman@danareksa.co.id

(62-21) 50914100 ext. 3124

Muhammad Naufal Yunas

muhammad.yunas@danareksa.co.id (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 Research Associate

Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, January 02, 2020

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Economic Calendar

Date Time Event Period

21-Nov-19 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 21-Nov

02-Dec-19 Markit Indonesia PMI Mfg Nov

02-Dec-19 CPI YoY Nov

02-Dec-19 CPI NSA MoM Nov

02-Dec-19 CPI Core YoY Nov

05-Dec-19 Consumer Confidence Index Nov

06-Dec-19 Net Foreign Assets IDR Nov

06-Dec-19 Foreign Reserves Nov

13-Dec-19 Local Auto Sales Nov

16-Dec-19 Exports YoY Nov

16-Dec-19 Imports YoY Nov

16-Dec-19 Trade Balance Nov

19-Dec-19 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 19-Dec

Source: Bloomberg

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