theories and methods of the business cycle. part 1: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models...
TRANSCRIPT
Theories and Methods of the Business Cycle.Part 1: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ModelsII. The RBC approach
Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, Professeur à Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne et à l’Ecole d’Economie de Paris (EEP)
II. The RBC approach 1. Introduction
F. Kydland and E. Prescott, 1982, Econometrica, Nobel Prize in 2005.
In the line of the Lucas critique to Keynesianism: Building a model with explicit micro-foundations taking part in the general equilibrium analysis: market clearing, no monetary factors, at odds with keynesian tradition.
One-step forward : no rationale for macroeconomic management = the optimal growth model with short-run fluctuations induced by productivity shocks (stochastic neoclassical growth model in the line of Solow (1956), Cass (1965) and Brock-Mirman (1972)). Hard-core of the RBC approach which has been challenged by a lot of works.
No more methodological opposition between business cycle and growth research which was at the heart of the neoclassical synthesis.
Building a successful (relative to data) business cycle model: imposing a new method based on calibration to evaluate the performance of business cycle models relative to a new definition of the business cycle facts. Quantitative Approach.
The methological innovation has been criticized but is now extensively used in macroeconomics today, even by proponents of stabilization interventions. The methods initiated by Kydland and Prescott are now commonly used in monetary and international economics, public finance, labor economics, asset pricing. In contrast to early RBC studies, they involve market failures so that government interventions are desirable.
II. The RBC approach 1. Introduction
Shock-based approach : productivity shocks
Propagated by intertemporal choices derived from dynamic
optimization under rational expectations.
Studying the canonical model first presented by King,
Plosser and Rebelo (1988), Journal of Monetary Economics
and reconsidered in King and Rebelo (1999), Handbook of
macroeconomics.
II. The RBC approach 2. Measuring cycles
Any time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend
and a cycle.
Trend and cycle components are not observable. This
implies to adopt a particular way of measuring them.
II. The RBC approach 2.1 Growth Cycles
II. The RBC approach 2.2 Trend Cycles
II. The RBC approach 2.3. Measuring cycles by using HP filter
More than identifying the non-stationarity of series, we need an
economic definition of business cycles consistent with the decades
of works following the seminal approach of Burns and Mitchell
(NBER tradition).
The HP filter can make stationary series up through four orders of
integration.
It is flexible enough to remove the « undesired » long-run
frequencies of the stationnary component of series.
See F. Canova [1998] for a detailed analysis of the HP filter.
Journal of Monetary Economics
See M. Baxter and R. King [1999], Review of Economics and
Statistics.
II. The RBC approach 2.3 Measuring cycles by using HP filter
II. The RBC approach 2.3 Measuring cycles by using HP filter
II. The RBC approach 2.3 Measuring cycles by using HP filter
To understand how HP filter works, it may be useful to
compare with the measure resulting from a band-pass filter
procedure: the HP filter looks like a BP filter which makes
the cyclical component those parts of output with
periodicities between 6 and 32 quarters: high frequencies
like seasonnal frequencies and low frequencies are
removed
II. The RBC approach 3. Quantifying Business Cycles
What are the business cycles features? For Lucas, all
business cycles would be all alike.
The stylized facts that any models should aim at replicating.
Amplitude of cycles; Variability of macroeconomic series,
differentials of variability across aggregates: standard
deviation
Comovements of macroeconomic series: correlation
Persistence of expansions and recessions: auto-correlation
II. The RBC approach 3.1 Cyclical dynamics
II. The RBC approach 3.1 Cyclical dynamics
II. The RBC approach 3.1 Cyclical dynamics
II. The RBC approach 3.2 Quantifying Business Cycles
The RBC approach 3.2 Quantifying Business Cycles
The RBC approach 3.2 Quantifying Business Cycles
High degree of co-movement, except for labor productivity.
Capital governement expenditures are rather a-cyclical.
High serial correlation which makes the evolution
predictable.
II. The RBC approach 3. 3 Are business cycles all alike?
French Business Cycles (Hairault [1992], Economie et
Prévision), 1970-1990, quarterly data. See also Danthine
and Donaldson [1993], European Economic Review for an
European business cycles overview.
II. The RBC approach 4 Introduction to the canonical RBC model
Neoclassical growth model in the line of Cass [1965]
with stochastic productivity shocks (Brock and Mirman
[1972]) and labor supply (Lucas and Rapping [1969]).
See Plosser [1989], Journal of Economic Perspectives.
II. The RBC approach 4. Introduction to the canonical RBC model
See Plosser [1989], Journal of Economic Perspectives.
II. The RBC approach 5. The assumptions of the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 5. The assumptions of the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 6. Stationarization of the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 7. Private decisions and prices in the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 7.1 Household decisions in the canonical RBC model
The value function represents the expected life-time utility conditionnal to
ks, A and k: the current flow of utility + the expected utility that results
from starting tomorrow with k’, K’ and A’ and proceeding from then on. ks’
and k’ are determined today. A’ will be known tomorrow, so we have to
compute the expected value tomorrow.
II. The RBC approach 7.1 Household decisions in the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 7.1 Household decisions in the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 7.1 Household decisions in the canonical RBC model
First condition: The present marginal utility of consumption
is equal to the expected and discounted marginal value (in
terms of utility) of capital.
Second condition : The marginal rate of substitution
between consumption and leisure is equal to the real wage.
Third condition: the expected and discounted marginal
value of capital is given on the optimal path by the
interest factor evaluated in terms of the marginal utility of
consumption tomorrow.
II. The RBC approach 7.1 Household decisions in the canonical RBC model
The third and the first conditions determine together the
so-called stochastic Euler (or Keynes-Ramsey) condition
which relies the marginal rate of substitution between
current and future consumptions to the rental rate:
II. The RBC approach 7.2 Firm decisions in the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 8. The competitive equilibrium in the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 8. The competitive equilibrium in the canonical RBC model
These conditions corresponds to the first best allocations of
ressources. There is an equivalence between the optimal
quantities chosen by the social planner and those in a
competitive general equilibrium. Fluctuations are optimal!
II. The RBC approach 8. Consumption and leisure smoothing in the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 9. The steady state in the canonical RBC model
The Euler equation can be written at the steady state as
follows:
Given constant returns to scale, the marginal product of
capital depends on the capital-labor ratio:
II. The RBC approach 9. The steady state in the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 10. A closed-form solution of the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 10. A closed-form solution of the canonical RBC model
II. The RBC approach 11. Transitionnal path in the canonical RBC model
Non-linear system of stochastic finite difference equations
under rational expectations.
In general no analytical solution, need to rely on numerical
approximation methods.
II. The RBC approach 11.1 Expliciting utility and production function
II. The RBC approach 11.2 Log-linearizing the equilibrium conditions
II. The RBC approach 11.3 Solving linear difference equations
II. The RBC approach 11.4 A saddle path equilibrium
II. The RBC approach 11.4 A saddle path equilibrium
II. The RBC approach 11.5 The saddle path equation
II. The RBC approach 12. Calibration
Make explicit use of the model to set the parameters
A lot of discipline
Let us see it on our baseline model
Have to set (alpha,gamma,delta,theta, beta,eta,,sigma,rho)
Use data related to growth: (k/y, c/y, i/y, h, wh/y, r )
What type of information do we have?
(k/y, c/y, i/y, h, wh/y, r ) from the model
(alpha,gamma,delta,theta, beta) the subset of parameters
can be calibrated
II. The RBC approach 12.1 Using information on the growth path
II. The RBC approach 12.1 Using information from the growth path
II. The RBC approach 12.2 Using information from micro-econometrics
II. The RBC approach 12.2 Using information from micro-econometrics
II. The RBC approach 12.2 Using information from micro-econometrics
w
Nd, Ns
weak
high
II. The RBC approach 12.3 Estimating the productivity stochastic process
II. The RBC approach 13. Inspecting the transitional dynamics
II. The RBC approach 13. Inspecting the transional dynamics
II. The RBC approach 13. Inspecting the transional dynamics
II. The RBC approach 13. Inspecting the transional dynamics
II. The RBC approach 13. Inspecting the transitional dynamics
Taking into account a productivity innovation at each
period.
II. The RBC approach 14. Responses to productivity shocks
II. The RBC approach 14. Responses to productivity shocks
II. The RBC approach 14. Responses to productivity shocks
Sl II. The RBC approach 15. The Slutsky-Frisch effect
II. The RBC approach 16. Stochastic simulations
II. The RBC approach 16. Stochastic simulations
II. The RBC approach 16.1 Volatility
II. The RBC approach 16.2 Persistence and comovement
II. The RBC approach 17. Historical simulations