the ways and means of adapting and mitigating climate change vulnerability …€¦ · ·...

The Ways and Means of Adapting and Mitigating Climate Change Vulnerability

of Northwest Bangladesh

Ms. Iffat Ara

Dhaka, 18 April 2011

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The Ways and Means of Adapting and Mitigating Climate Change Vulnerability of

Northwest Bangladesh

Ms. Iffat Ara

The Research Team

Supervisor : Dr. K. Maudood Elahi Senior Programme Analyst : Sarfuddin Bhuiyan Programme Analyst : Mustofa Maruf Billah Research Associate : Md. Didarul Islam Research Assistant : Ms. Afifa Razzaque

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Copyright © RDRS Completed in April 2011 by RDRS Bangladesh Rangpur Dinajpur Rural Service House 43, Road 10, Sector 6, Uttara, Dhaka-1230 Tel: 880-2-895 4384 - 85 Fax: 880-2-895 4391 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.rdrsbangla.net Researcher Ms. Iffat Ara Lecturer Department of Geography and Environment Jahangirnagar University Savar, Dhaka-1342 Phone: 88- 01717427345 (Mobile), 880-2-8920304 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Cover Design: Layout and Typeset: Photo Credits: Iffat Ara and Kazi Arifur Rahman ISBN no: Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission in writing from the authors or RDRS. Any person making any unauthorized act in relation to this report may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

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Acknowledgement

This report is an outgrowth from a research work being conducted in the North West region of Bangladesh. I have been recipient of many, many kindnesses without which this work would probably never have appeared. I acknowledge the assistances of the many who kindly extended their wholehearted cooperation in collecting, organizing and analyzing data presented in this report at every stages leading towards accomplishment. I gratefully acknowledge all of them especially to my research team Sarfuddin Bhuiyan, Mustofa Maruf Billah, Md. Didarul Islam and Ms. Afifa Razzaque.

I deem at a great privilege to express my profound respects, deep sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to my research supervisor Dr. K. Maudood Elahi, Pro-vice Chancellor and Chairman, Department of Environmental Science, Stamford University Bangladesh having initiated me into research and inspired me throughout the period of this study. I am highly indebted to him. I owe my gratitude to the personnel of RDRS Bangladesh for their respective cooperation during the whole process as well as their sincere and valuable comments on the draft report, especially Dr. Syed Samsuzzaman, Director (Resources and Environment), RDRS Bangladesh and N.A.M. Julfiker Ali Hanif, Research Coordinator, NBI, RDRS Bangladesh. I also would like to acknowledge RDRS Bangladesh and NBI for providing financial support for this research. I am also grateful to all field level administrators and program implementers (DC, ADM, ADC, UNO) and development executives (Deputy Director and UAOs of DAE), NGOs Professionals, UP Chairmen and Members of Federations who extended their fullest cooperation while conducting the study. I am especially indebted to Md. Liaquat Ali Khan, Programme Coordinator, RDRS Bangladesh, Kurigram; Shariful Islam Khan. Programme Coordinator, RDRS Bangladesh, Nilphamari; Zeba Afroza, Programme Manager and Field Coordinator, RDRS Bangladesh, Panchgarh and K. M. Rashedul Arefin, Programme Manager, Field Coordinator, RDRS Bangladesh , Gaibandha for their special interest in this venture and manage everything for a successful field survey. They should be also thanked for helping to search appropriate persons to conduct FGD’s. Without their enormous support it won’t be possible to make a close contact with the community people within a very short span of time. Special thanks are due to Kazi Arifur Rahman, Shakil Kha, K.M. Taifur Siddiqui and Tarek Khan- the young field investigator of this study who always accompanied me with a short notice and give prompt service when needed. They helped me a lot in the field supervision of data collection, photography and also in conducting and organizing FGD, PRA. KII and Case Studies. Finally, I express my deepest gratitude to all the community people and respondents of the study area spreading over all four districts (Kurigram, Nilphamari, Panchgarh and Gaibandha) of North West region. They are the actual owner of the primary data presented in this research. I can never equate their respective contribution and cooperation by mere expressing gratefulness.

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Executive Summary Bangladesh is recognized worldwide as one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change. The location, dominance of floodplains and low elevation from the sea, high population density, high levels of poverty, and overwhelming dependence on nature, its resources and services makes the country ecologically vulnerable due to climate change. The country has a history of extreme climatic events claiming millions of lives and destroying past development gains. People’s vulnerability to climate change is frequently a reflection of marginalization within their own communities. Climate change incidents will affects the entire Northwest region and people will be affected at large scale. It is already mentioned that the region is characterized by high temperature and low rainfall compare to average condition of Bangladesh. Entire area is prone to flood, flash flood, river bank erosion, drought, cold wave pattern which is likely to become more frequent and intense along with horizontal expansion due to climate change. It is also important to note that changes in timing of this natural phenomenon which is influenced by the micro and macro level climatic condition is really alarming resulting from erratic behavior and distribution of rainfall and temperature rise. The major impacts would be on agriculture, fisheries, availability of water resources for agriculture and domestic use, wet lands, food security, education, gender, human health and working capacity, assets and assets developments, social security and on many more.

The review of literature indicated that many studies attempted to deal with the climate change incidents in the recent some. But unfortunately no one enlighten the adaptation and mitigation measures in the Northwest region in detail. It indicates the urgency of the present study is to examine the evidence of climate change and measure the impact of recent climate change phenomenon in Northwest region of Bangladesh. It will help to gather information on vulnerability and adaptation capacity considering both present and future. It identifies best ways and means for adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts in Northwest region in different sector. As a whole some degree of enlightened the important livelihood resources/indigenous knowledge and skill may be viewed and explore for cope up with climate change by facilitate dialogue between communities and local institutions on climate change vulnerability for community based adaptation in Northwest region considering river bank erosion prone community, drought prone community, cold wave prone community and flood prone community for survival of the local people and their livelihood in this region. The principle objective of the current study is identifying the means and ways of adaptation and mitigation of climate change in the north-west region of Bangladesh. The specific objectives research are, (1) to gather information on vulnerability and adaptation capacity in Northwest region considering both present and future, (2) to find out the climate change impacts and best ways and means for adaptation and mitigation of those in northwest region in different sector ((i.e. agriculture, Fisheries, wetlands, water, food security, education, gender, climate forecasts etc.) and (3) to facilitate dialogue between communities and local institutions on climate change vulnerability for community based adaptation in Northwest region in three different level- Household level, Local government level and National level. Study applying Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA) method. It helps to understand the implications of climate change for the lives and livelihoods of the people in Northwest region. By combining local knowledge with scientific data, the process builds people’s understanding about climate risks and adaptation strategies. It provides a framework for dialogue within communities, as well as between communities and other stakeholders. The results provide a solid foundation for the identification of practical strategies to facilitate community-based adaptation and mitigation to climate change. The CVCA prioritizes local knowledge on climate risks and adaptation strategies in the data gathering and analysis process. Participatory Research Assessment (PRA) and secondary research exercises (prior to PRAs) were considered for both quantitative and qualitative data collection. It focused on communities (considering river bank erosion prone community, drought prone community, cold wave prone community and flood

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prone community). Research approach recognizes the role of local and national institutions and policies in creating enabling environment for community-based adaptation and mitigation by analytical framework comprised of guiding questions, emphasis on process for learning and dialogue and links community knowledge to scientific climate change data. Primary data were collected through FGD (Focus Group Discussion), KII (Key Information Interview) and Case Study. For limitation of time a large-scale qualitative survey is not planned but several sets of Focus Group Discussion (FGD) was undertaken incorporating cross section of people and organizations (both GO and NGOs) in the Northwest region. Beside this, qualitative information was collected using participatory tools such as in-depth interview. It was considered four groups,(1) local partners (Government), (2) local partners (NGOs, considering project managers and field staff on livelihoods projects and community-based adaptation projects), (3) vulnerable communities, (4) household and (5) individual for primary data collection. Four districts of northwest Bangladesh are considered (Kurigram, Nilphamari, Panchagarh and Gaibandha) .These are delimited on the basis of available information and the degree of vulnerability from the climate change incidents from the secondary sources and literature review. Kurigram, Nilphamari, Panchagarh and Gaibandha district were measured for riverbank erosion, drought, cold wave and flood respectively. But of these at least three upazilas from four districts is selected for the present study according to the purposive sampling procedure. The collected information will be processed qualitatively as well as quantitatively. Qualitative modes of analysis will be concerned with textual analysis of FGD and case studies processed through computer with the help of EXCEL and WORD software for identifying best means and ways of adaptation and mitigation. The quantitative data will be processed through computer with the help of EXCEL livelihood and vulnerability ranking by descriptive statistics. Some of the secondary data is concern for mapping of assessing general physical and socio-economic condition of the Northwest region. The special software ArcView-3.3 and ArcGIS-0.9 will be used for cartographic presentation. The statistical method (Standard Deviation) was applied to show the spatial distribution pattern of some of the key indicators to examine the physical and social-economic condition of the Northwest region at national level covering 64 districts of Bangladesh. As part of the study, it reviewed the theoretical construct of the climate change scenario in overall Bangladesh mainly from the secondary sources. From the review it was indicated that the country will be highly susceptible to: (a) increased flooding, both in terms of extent and frequency; (b) increased moisture stress during dry periods leading to increased drought susceptibility in terms of both intensity and frequency; and (c) increased salinity intrusion during the low flow conditions. The impacts have been observed that summers are becoming hotter, monsoon irregular, untimely rainfall, heavy rainfall over short period causing water logging and landslides, very little rainfall in dry period, increased river flow and inundation during monsoon, increased frequency, intensity and recurrence of floods, crop damage due to flash floods and monsoon floods, crop failure due to drought, prolonged cold spell, salinity intrusion along the coast leading to scarcity of potable water and redundancy of prevailing crop practices, coastal erosion, riverbank erosion, deaths due to extreme heat and extreme cold, increasing mortality, morbidity, prevalence and outbreak of dengue, malaria, cholera and diarrhea, etc. The climate change in Bangladesh creates insecurities for food, water, life, property, settlement, livelihood assets and others. Climatic impacts reduce securities directly and indirectly. Beside this, present study describes general environmental conditions of Northwest region with two terms: (i) physical conditions, and (ii) socio-economic conditions. These provide a generalized picture having bearing on human habitat and economy of the study area in Northwest Bangladesh. Physical condition is considering physiography, river system, climate, Soil, land and land use pattern, agro-ecology, environment and natural disaster (i.e. Flood, river bank erosion, drought, and cold wave). The socio-economic condition covers population, age structure, labor force and occupation, dependency ratio, rural and urban differentials, poverty, calorie intake, land ownership status in the selected study areas of Northwest region. It will help to understand the correlation of physical and socio-economic condition of the study area with climate change incidents. The empirical studies on the study area meaningfully indicated both physical and social condition of the study area is vulnerable for the community and climate change

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events will increase such vulnerability more. Apart from this information it will also help to identify the local capacity of the study are to combat climate change in near future. The result of the present study has shown that vulnerability to climate change varies not only within communities but also in households. The pattern and types of climate change vulnerability is significantly different and that is why the ways and means of climate change adaptation is also varies among the community. Such ways and means of adaptation and mitigation of climate change in Northwest region of Bangladesh is identified by the local community. Before analyzing the ways of adaptation they discuss climate change impacts in different sectors (i.e. agriculture, fisheries, wetlands, water, food security, education, gender, human health and working capacity, assets, climate change forecast). They predict the impact of climate change in future in their locality also. Local people explore important livelihood resources, its types, availability and access for their coping strategies in their locality.

The evidence of climate change in four different community (river bank erosion prone, drought prone, cold wave prone and flood prone) in Northwest region is significantly clear, such as, increase temperature, changing the duration of season, absence of six seasons, late rainy season, high temperature, decreasing the water flow in rivers, originating more char lands in the river, irregular rainfall, water table declined, short duration of winter, prolong flood, late flood, stormy wind and occurring storm, decreasing the rate of rainfall, increasing the intensity of cold wave and remaining it for long time, increasing the rate of riverbank erosion, decrease of crop production, remaining fog for long time, occurring untimed rainfall etc. The local people observed the recent climate change events by using their local indigenous knowledge and locally inherited perception. They detected the rainy season differences which makes a huge impact on agriculture, livestock and fisheries. Crop production is decreasing but comparatively insecticide and fertilizer using more because people want to produce more crops. It causes losing of soil fertility. Natural irrigation system has been interrupted as a large scale in dry season. Rainfall pattern is very low in cultivation season but excessive rainfall in lean season is observed. All of the respondents united in one point that they observed lack of rainfall when needed.

For agricultural sector using indigenous knowledge to combat climate change is one of the best ways to predict climatic change phenomenon. Enhance irrigation facilities is immediately desired. Government should give more emphasis on flexibility of irrigation in both dry and wet season, ensure proper power supply for irrigation when needed and even using electric pump if necessary. Digging more cannel to use river water for irrigation purpose is another way to minimize irrigation problem in the dry season. Local community will be ensured by the local government that irrigation would be continued for them and they will give more intention to ‘Rabi seasons’ crop while more water in needed for cultivation. GO/NGO will trained local farmer about advance irrigation technology. Agricultural diversification is also needed. It will be start by the local community by changing cropping pattern, for example promote fruit like water melon and rock melon cultivation in sandy soil in the char areas of Northwest region. Government will take initiative to invent such kind of crop variety, disaster resilient crop, modified high yielding variety and short duration variety of rice and other crops. Agricultural information is mandatory for the local farmer and such information will be given by the local government to them. They want that government will introduce especial insurance scheme for the poor farmers due to crop failure / production losses for climate change incidents. Both GO and NGO will monitor the soil condition and maintain a database of local soil for every year that they can detect the change it will also help to preserve soil condition and fertility. A proper planning of fishing is needed in entire Northwest region. Fishing should be banned at breeding season and small fish should not be caught. Local ponds and other wetlands should be ready for the whole year for fishing. Community people will have the access to use pond and such kinds of wetlands. Initiative should be come from the government but need assessment will be done by the local community with the help of government and NGO to introduce new fish variety and disaster resilient fish species. Emphasis should be given on the quick growing fish species. Local people will practice the new variety but they must maintain the distinction of local species with the new one. Introduce commercial

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fishing by digging more new ponds in the locality will be another option. It is urgent to build awareness among the community for optimum use of insecticide, pesticides to protect water pollution. High technology for fishing will be promote by the GO/NGO to the local community to preserve water in the wetlands even in extreme dry season, such as possible option for fishing in the pond by the plastic coating and casing fishing in flooding time. Both GO/NGO and local community will maintain local wet lands considering erratic rainfall and temperature pattern in Northwest region. Wetland should be protected from sand due to flood. It will be insured by the local people that wetlands are properly utilized by them. Emphasis should be given on irrigation for proper utilization of the wet land when needed in extreme climate change events in dry season. Urgently need international co-operation (i.e. India vs. Bangladesh) for proper water managements. Advancement of the political influence and more agreements on water treaty and related things is required to ensure proper river and cannel as well as water management in Northwest region. Government should implement especial policy for management the river for continuous flow of water for whole year. Improvement of the rainwater harvesting concept in needed. Implement planning for monitoring such option and promote technology for storing rainwater that could be used for domestic and agriculture purpose. More research is needed to justify the possibilities of rainwater harvesting at regional basis of Northwest region. Set more deep tube well for ensure drinking water and local people will be accountable for pure and safe drinking water. Sometimes GO will give purification devices and safe drinking water to the community when needed in emergency period. Agricultural production should be maximum cost effective and alternative cropping could minimize the food security problem in such areas. In-depth research is needed to assess the possibilities of alternative crops and proper land utilization especially for agriculture in Northwest region. Local people can practice the option of homestead gardening. Need absolute co-operation between GO/NGO for implement various planning on food and food security. Government should monitor the total system of food production, distribution and marketing. Spread diversified employment option with a minimum wage of rate all over the Northwest region for landless and extreme poor that they can buy food in lean season. Thinking of alternative option such as seasonal/ permanent migration, giving micro-credit or taking loan from GO/NGO and the possibilities of ‘Dhan’ bank to ensure food security in Northwest region. Government should take initiative to take census on poverty, food security and any other related issue as a regional basis taking into account on Northwest region. Include climate change topics in education in necessary. Government will take initiative to include climate change topic in national curriculum by modifying syllabus at secondary and primary level. This will be also helpful to build up awareness on climate change adaptation and mitigation issues at early stage. Promote education considering climate change in essential. Establish more primary and secondary school in this region and char/remote lands. Set up new school by thinking of the distance that children can easily go by foot and giving warm cloths to the poor children that they can go to their school at early morning when needed. Road must be higher than flood line and distance must be consider that little children can go to their school even in the extreme climatic condition or any disaster events. Protect gender violence due to climate change is an urgent issue. Raise awareness and give counseling among local people to protected early marriage, dowry and other social crisis. Policy implication is prerequisite for emergency health condition in disaster time especially for the women. More emphasis should be given on maternity health in disaster time. Emphasis should be given also for the left behind women, children, and elderly people. Implement the concept of ‘Community Clinic’ or ‘Mobile Medical’ center in the remote area is required. Special support from GO/NGO in emergency period is needed for women such as diversified employment opportunity, develop cottage industry , give priority to female in case of appointing schools in village etc.

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Policy implication for better health condition at Upazila level is obligatory. Need more doctors, nurses and medicine facilities at government hospitals. Common medicine should be distributed among poor people in remote areas and in any emergency time. Rising consciousness about climate change related diseases seasonal diseases and any crisis of health issues. Both GO and NGO will be responsible for emergency health service. Infrastructure development is needed that medical center should be available for the local people up to upazila level. Emphasis should be given on women for income generation and asset development. Build up awareness to involve various economic activities by both GO/NGO. Proper land distribution is required and Government will take initiative to distribute ‘khas’ land among the local poor and landless people. Proper use of the land and embankment will be ensured by the local people. Generate opportunities for asset development such as develop assets by creating employment opportunities and such opportunities should be permanent, industrialization, develop small and large business and industrial activities in the Northwest region, create others employment opportunities etc. Common shelter is needed in disaster period. Tree plantation (i.e. local fruit tree plantation-lotkon, betel nut, mango and papaw etc.) will be another option of household level asset development. At present there is no forecast of climate change occurrences in Northwest region. People claim there is no meteorology center in their area. Some of them have no idea about climate change forecast. But they realize that climate forecast is required for early warning that will be effective to protect their assets and livelihood. Local people argued for monitoring present forecasting system. Government should take initiative at local level to inform about climate change events, temperature and rainfall to local administrative office that they can provide the information to the local farmer when needed. Government will implement policy for regional basis climate change information up to upazila level. Need information center in village from where they can get information about climate change incidents. It is mandatory to disseminate climate change information among the community. Local representative from both GO/NGO will pass the climatic information. There is many other option such as announcement by the mike at local level, local radio station can inform about the climatic information, climate forecasting through bill board in the open common places where local people are usually gathered, climate forecast should be spread through various organizations (i.e. the concept of federation by the RDRS will be more effective), climate forecasting through union porishad networking, school/ college teacher, local imam by the local mosque, mobile messaging etc. Massive use of indigenous knowledge is required, Experienced and elderly people can use their common intelligence, commonly practices prophecy to understand about the local climatic condition and discuss with others local farmer. Lastly, a framework for three different level (i.e. Household/individual, local government/community level, national level) is depicts by local people for climate change adaptation by using their indigenous/ local level knowledge, skill, locally available resources and possible expectations. The outcome of the present study indicated that local people are typically depending on their local level indigenous knowledge to combat with the recent climate change phenomenon. It gives possible recommendation for four different climate change incident prone community in their locality as well as a general recommendation for the Northwest region to combat with climate change. It is not always necessary to have everything laid out or monitor by the Government or NGO or any other organizations. If local people are made aware and motivated to use the locally available resources, knowledge and innovative technologies then the climate change vulnerability can be reduced to a greater extent.

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CONTENTS

Summary 5 Contents 10 Tables 12 Figures 13 Local Terms 14 Abbreviations 15 CHAPTER 1 Introduction

Introduction 16 Statement of the problem 21 Review of Literature 21 Rationale of the Study 25

Objectives 26 Research Methods and Approaches 27

Study Area 32 Scope of the Study 36

Further Research Option 37 Limitations 37

Summary and Conclusion 38

CHAPTER 2 Assessing the General Issues of Climate Change in Bangladesh and

Physical/Socio-economic Sign of the Northwest Region Introduction 39

Bangladesh in a Changing Climate 41 Climate Change and Security issues in Bangladesh 44 Climate Change Hotspots and Adaptation in Bangladesh 45 Assessing Physical/Socio-economic Sign of the Northwest Region 49

-General Physical Conditions 50 -General Socioeconomic Conditions 68

Summary and Conclusion 74

CHAPTER 3 The Ways and Means of Adapting and Mitigating Climate Change Vulnerability of North West Region

Introduction 76

Evidence of Climate Change in Northwest Region 77 Impact of Recent Climate Change Events in Northwest Region 78 The Means and Ways of Adapting and Mitigating Climate Change in Different Sector in Northwest Region 80

Agriculture 81 Fisheries 83 Wetlands 85 Water 86 Food Security 87 Education 89 Gender 90

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Human health and working capacity 92 Assets 93 Climate forecast 94

Impact of Climate Change in Future in Northwest Region 95 Important Livelihood Resources for Adaptation in Northwest Region 96 Most Vulnerable Group of Climate Change in Northwest Region 99 Underlying Causes of Vulnerability in Northwest Region 100 Summary and Conclusion 101

CHAPTER 4 Conclusions

Introduction 103 The Ways and Means of Adapting and Mitigating of Climate Change Vulnerability: An Overview 105

Recommendations 107 House hold/individual level 107

Local government/ community level 108 National level 109

General Recommendations for Northwest region 110 Summary and Conclusion 111

Appendices 112 Bibliography 127

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TABLES

Table 1.1 Sampling frame in relation to climate change incidents Table 1.2 Unit of observation and sample size (Districts and Upazilas) Table 2.1 Scenarios provided in NAPA document Table 2.2 Outputs of GCM exercise using GFD 01 transient model Table 2.3 GCM projections for changes in temperature and precipitation for Bangladesh Table 2.4 Critical vulnerable areas and most impacted sectors due to climate change in

Bangladesh Table 3.1 Geographical indicators of the study area (districts) 2001. Table 3.2 Rivers of the study areas. Table 3.3 Major rivers by length and the districts covered. Table 3.4 Average temperature of the study area districts. Table 3.5 Agro-ecological regions of the study area. Table 3.6 Affected area of Kharif by drought. Table 3.7 Affected area of Rabi and pre-Kharif by drought. Table 3.8 Area facing both agricultural and meteorological drought risks Table 3.9 Key geo-demographic characteristics of some districts of

North West region, 1991- 2000. Table 3.10 Main occupation of rural households in Gaibandha. Table 5.1 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in agricultural sector Table 5.2 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in fisheries sector Table 5.3 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in wetland sector Table 5.4 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in water sector Table 5.5 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in food security

sector Table 5.6 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in education sector Table 5.7 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in gender sector Table 5.8 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in human health

sector Table 5.9 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in assets ssector Table 5.10 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in climate forecast

sector

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FIGURES

Fig 1.1 Number of respondents covering the target group of four different communities. Fig 1.2a Bangladesh (Administrative Unit with study area, districts) Fig 1.2b North West region of Bangladesh (study area, upazilas) Fig 1.3 Map of Sampling frame (Districts) Fig 2.1 Physical model (not to the scale) of Asian sub-continent depicts that the physical

landscape of the region has a profound impact on the physical and climatic processes of Bangladesh.

Fig 3.1 Physiography of Bangladesh Fig 3.2 Main rivers of Bangladesh Fig 3.3 Climatic regions of Bangladesh Fig 3.5 General soil map of Bangladesh Fig 3.4 Mean annual rainfall of Bangladesh Fig 3.6 Cropping intensity of Bangladesh Fig 3.7 Agro-ecological zones of Bangladesh Fig 3.8 Agricultural land use of Bangladesh Fig 3.9 Flood affected areas of Bangladesh (1955, 1974, 1988 and 1998) Fig 3.10 Flood categories of Bangladesh Fig 3.11 Drought categories of Bangladesh Fig 3.12 Drought in Kharif and Rabi seasons in Bangladesh Fig 3.13 Agricultural drought risk and meteorological drought risk areas in North West region Fig 3.14 Combined drought risk areas in Northwest region Fig 3.15 Riverbank erosion affected areas of Bangladesh and Erosion-prone Upazilas of Bangladesh Fig 3.16 Population density of Bangladesh, 2001 and age structure of Bangladesh, 1991. Fig 3.17 Agricultural labor force of Bangladesh and Non- Agricultural labor force of Bangladesh, 1991 Fig 3.18 Labor force in 'others' category and Activity rate of Bangladesh, 1991 Fig 3.19 Dependency ratio and Rural and urban population of Bangladesh, 1991 Fig 3.20 Regional variations of development and regional variations of transport network of Bangladesh,1991 Fig 3.21 Distribution of industrial establishments and total person engaged

in industrial sector of Bangladesh, 1991 Fig 3.22 Poverty level of Bangladesh, 1995 and calorie intake of Bangladesh, 1997 Fig 3.23 Landlessness of Bangladesh, 1991 and Households by agricultural

land ownership of Bangladesh, 2001.

Fig 5.1 Percentage of people observing climate change evidence in their locality

in Northwest region

Fig 5.2 Percentage of people observing recent climate change incident

in Northwest region

Fig 5.3 Percentage of important livelihood resources in four different districts in Northwest region Fig 5.4 Percentage of people having important livelihood resources in four districts of Northwest region Fig 5.5 Percentage of vulnerable group in four districts of Northwest region

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LOCAL TERMS

Adivasis - Smaller ethnic population groups.

Agrahayan - Bangla month (mid-November to mid-December).

Amon - A variety of rice.

Ashwin - Bangla month (mid-September to mid-October).

Aus - A variety of rice.

Baishakh - Bangla month (mid- April to mid-May).

Bazar - Market.

Bhumi - Land

Beel - Inland water bodies/wetlands.

Char - Shoal/sandbar or Mid-river island (also some of alluvial deposits along the banks).

Dhan - Unhusked paddy.

Haat - Rural markets/collecting centers of agricultural products.

Kharif - Crop season, generally covering summer and monsoon seasons.

Khas (land) - Without individual ownership/newly emergent land generally held by the government.

Rabi - Crop season, generally covering winter period.

Union - A fourth-level administrative unit usually consisting of 12 to 15 villages and/or several Mouzas.

Upazila - A third level administrative unit consisting of several unions with an average population of around 20,000. A number of Upazilas forms a Zila or District, the second-level administrative unit. A number of Zilas form a Division, the first-level administrative unit. Bangladesh has composed of seven administrative divisions

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ABBREVIATIONS

AEZ Agro-Ecological Zone ASB Bangladesh Asiatic Society. BARC Bangladesh Agriculture Research Center. BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. BIDS Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. BRAC Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council. BUP Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad CBA Community-Based Adaptation CBO Community-Based Organization CCC Climate Change Cell CDMP Comprehensive Disaster Management Programe CVCA Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis DC Developed Country. DoE Department of Environment EWS Early Warning System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FG Focus Group FGD Focus Group Discussion GCM General Circulation Model GDP Gross Domestic Product. GIS Geographic Information System GoB Government of Bangladesh. GUK Gana Unnayan Kendra IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRRI International Rice Research Institution. IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature IWM Institute of Water Modeling KII Key Information Interview LDC Less Developed Country. MoEF Ministry of Environment and Forest NAP National Action Programme NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NGO Non- Governmental Organization. RBA Rights-Based Approaches RDRS Rangpur Dinajpur Rural Service SLR Sea Level Rise SMRC SAARC Meteorological Research Center SPARRSO Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization. SRDI Soil Resources Development Institute UN United Nations UNDP United Nation Development Project. UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFPA United Nations Fund for Population Activities. UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNO United Nations Organization USAID United States Agency for International Development VCA Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment VGD Vulnerable Group Development WARPO Water Resources Planning Organization WFP World Food Program WRI World Resources Institute

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INTRODUCTION

Introduction

Bangladesh is situated in the South Asia and bounded by India, Myanmar and the Bay of

Bengal. Except for the hilly region to the east and the high land to the north, the country is

primarily a low, flat and fertile land. The land area of Bangladesh is 147,570 square

kilometers with a population of 130.0 million (BBS, 2001). Bangladesh, a developing country

in South Asia, is primarily deltaic flood plains, and elevations in most of the country do not

exceed 10m. The country has a humid tropical climate. Average rainfalls in drier and wetter

regions are 1500mm and 5000mm per year respectively. In winter, the average minimum and

maximum daily temperatures are about 9.7 and 26.6°C respectively. In the summer, the

average maximum temperature is about 32.2°C (BARC, 1991). Bangladesh is frequently cited

as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change (Huq, 2001, Rahman and Alam,

2003, UNDP, 2007 and Huq and Ayers, 2007) because of its disadvantageous geographic

location; flat and low-lying topography; high population density; high levels of poverty;

reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture and

fisheries; and inefficient institutional aspects (CCC, 2006). Many of the anticipated adverse

effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, higher temperatures, enhanced monsoon

precipitation, and an increase in cyclone intensity, will aggravate the existing stresses that

already impede development in Bangladesh, particularly by reducing water and food security

and damaging essential infrastructure (MoEFa, 2005). These impacts could be extremely

detrimental to the economy, the environment, national development, and the people of

Bangladesh (Reid and Sims, 2007). Bangladesh has developed some capacity for dealing with

the impacts of climate change at the national level, and policy response options have been

mobilized that deal with vulnerability reduction to environmental variability in general, and

more recently, to climate change in particular. In addition, Bangladesh has for some time been

recognized as a particularly vulnerable country by the international community and has

received disaster management and adaptation support in several sectors.

Chapter 1

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A climate change scenario is defined as a physically consistent set of changes in

meteorological variables, based on generally accepted projections of concentrations of carbon

dioxide (CO2 thought to be the likely cause of future climate change). Scenarios of climate

change were developed in order to estimate their effects on crop yields which may be severe

in coming days as per the speculations going on throughout the world. The set of scenarios

used is intended to capture a range of possible effects and set limits on the associated

uncertainty. The scenarios were created by changing observed daily data from the current

daily-observed historical climate data (1975-1995). The scenarios are the combination of a

range of temperature (-2°C, 0°C and +2°C) and precipitation (+/-25%). For simplicity, solar

radiation, vapor pressure and wind speed were assumed to remain unchanged for all scenarios

although some changes associated with temperature and precipitation changes is to be

expected (Ahmed and Shibasaki, 2000).

The balance of scientific evidence now suggests that over the last century humans have begun

to have a discernible influence on the earth's climate, causing it to warm (IPCC, 1996, 1998).

Since the beginning of the industrial age, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has

increased from 280 to 350 parts per million (Bazzaz and Fajer, 1992). The increase of CO2 in

the atmosphere has been more rapid in recent years. The major reason for this increase may

be attributable to the extensive use of fossil fuels, such as oil, coal and gas. The destruction of

carbon sink by excessive land use and deforestation might be another important cause for the

atmospheric CO2 increase over the last 100 years (Houghton et. al., 1990). It has been

projected from the historical data and simulation models that the CO2 level in the atmosphere

will reach 600 ppm in the last half of this century (Strain, 1987). The increase of CO2 and

several other green house gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

could cause an increase global temperature of about 4.2°C and possibly a change in

precipitation patterns and amounts in some regions (Kimball et. al., 1993). Global warming

due to increasing concentrations of green house gases poses a threat to human society by

changing the living and working environment to which society has adapted over many

generations (Jodha, 1989). Agricultural impacts of climate change could have profound effect

in poor and developing countries.

The country depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall. A multi-

model study for South Asia projected ―a significant increase in mean monsoon of 8% and a

possible extension of the monsoon period‖ with an intensification of both extremely heavy

and extremely deficient monsoons (Kripalani et al. 2007). Climate scientists are also

concerned about the stability of monsoon and the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase

shift to a drier regime (Lenton et al. 2008). A recent fine-scale study noted the potential for

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climate change to weaken monsoon overall across the sub-continent, an average decline in

summer rainfall, a delay in the onset of monsoon and more monsoon break periods, but also

potentially increased rainfall in Bangladesh, which would lead to more flooding (Ashfaq et al.

2009). Bangladesh faces an additional hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and

Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau region, where glaciers are

melting rapidly. Glacial meltwater provides as much as 70% of the summer flow in the

Ganges and 50-60% for other major rivers in the region (Barnett et al. 2005). But

temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau have risen three times faster than the global average for

the last 50 years (Qiu, 2008). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s,

by which time the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-

km to an expected 100,000 sq-km (Cruz et al. 2007). After the 2030s, river flows could drop

dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into seasonal monsoon-fed rivers.

The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more than a billion

people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30%

in South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress (IPCC, 2007a and IPCC,

2007b). It seems then that Bangladesh could experience a phase shift in future climatic

conditions: An initial period of more frequent and intense flooding as the Himalayan glaciers

melt and monsoon rainfall increases, followed after the 2030s by a more uncertain period

when glacier melt waters decline dramatically, monsoons become more uncertain and

variable, crop losses increase from heat and drought, and humanitarian and security concerns

start to dominate as the entire region experiences major water and food shortages. Bangladesh

is therefore likely to face substantial challenges in the coming decades.

The resilient Bangladeshi people have always coped with the effects of extreme weather

patterns and environmental conditions not related to climate change. Arsenic-contaminated

groundwater, for example, is a serious problem that is exacerbated by climate change.

Bangladesh‘s proximity to sea level is another natural condition that increases its vulnerability

to the effects of global warming. The frequency and severity of these natural disasters,

however, are rapidly escalating because of climate change. Because Bangladesh is both low-

lying and densely populated, the impacts of climate change on the country will be particularly

intense. Minor environmental changes will have major consequences. A recent World Bank

report lists Bangladesh as one of the 12 countries most at risk for climate-related problems. It

is seriously at risk for all of the five main climate threats: drought, floods, storms, sea-level

rise, and agricultural crop loss. A one-meter rise in sea level as the result of the melting of the

Himalayan glaciers and Greenland ice sheet could flood one-third of the country and displace

as many as 40 million people. In other areas of Bangladesh, climate change may contribute to

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salinity intrusion and increase the likelihood of winter drought. In both of these scenarios, a

shortfall in crop production would ensue, threatening the food security of a society that is

highly dependent on agriculture. The repercussions of global warming on Bangladesh are

diverse and wide-reaching. The environmental changes that are occurring directly affect all

aspects of society. Human health, food security, industry and energy security, infrastructure,

and economic development are all threatened by climate change. According to the World

Bank, 40 percent of foreign aid to Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate-related factors. In a

country as densely populated as Bangladesh, even small-scale shifts in ecological systems

have a profound humanitarian impact. As the effects of climate change continue to intensify,

the potential for social, economic, and humanitarian disaster is rapidly increasing. One of the

most serious impacts of climate change is on human migration. As sea levels rise and a vast

proportion of Bangladesh becomes inundated, many will have no choice but to flee their

homes. Bangladeshi ―land squatters‖ have for decades settled on vulnerable islands of silt

known as chars. already vulnerable during monsoons, this rootless population is sure to

increase. With higher sea levels and stronger storms, the chars are quickly eroding under their

inhabitants‘ feet. Farmers who can no longer cultivate their land, inhabitants of coastal areas

that have been submerged in sea water, and other impoverished Bangladeshis who are forced

to leave their homes to escape from climate change will become environmental refugees

(Matthews, 2009).

Agricultural crop of Bangladesh is influenced by seasonal characteristics and different

variables of climate such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc. It is also often

constrained by different disasters such as floods, droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclone

and storm surges. Several studies indicated that climate is changing and becoming more

unpredictable every year in Bangladesh. Its variability extreme weather events are being

experienced more frequently than ever before. Hazards like floods, droughts, cyclones and

salinity intrusion are likely to be aggravated by climate change and sea level rise. Flood and

water logging in the central region, flash-flood in the northeast region, drought in the

northwest and southwest region, and salinity intrusion and coastal inundation in the coastal

regional would be a more acute problem in future. All of these will have an extra bearing on

the agriculture sector. Extreme temperature due to climate change would affect livestock.

High temperature would affects livestock in a number of ways: causes great discomfort as in

the case of human, decreases feed intake and alters nutrient metabolism leading to high loss

of energy and thirdly the combined effects of discomfort and nutrient metabolism reduces

their productivity, resulting in financial loss of the farmers. Apart from extreme temperature,

natural disasters such as cyclone and tidal surge as mentioned above, cause immense loss and

sufferings to livestock through destruction of forage crops as well as housing.

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Northwest Bangladesh, the northernmost area of the country, known as greater Rangpur

Dinajpur in Rajshahi Division, districts namely Dinajpur, Thakurgaon, Panchagarh,

Nilphamari, Kurigram & Lalmonirhat in the greater Rangpur-Dinajpur region in the northwest

part of Bangladesh. Presently this includes 307 Unions – the lowest tier of local government

and extends into the riverine belt to include the islands and sandbars in the River

Brahmaputra. The area is generally very low-lying, and crisscrossed by river systems. The

northwest Bangladesh is historically more neglected and poor. The soil tends to be sandy and

water tables deeper than in other regions. The area is vulnerable to frequent natural disasters.

People face catastrophe like cyclones during summer, floods and river-bank erosion in the

rainy season, drought in summer, spring and cold wave in winter. Lacking any significant

industrial development agriculture is the mainstay of the economy and main source of

employment. The spread of irrigation has reduced the extent of the lean season but remains

problematic (RDRS, 2001)

The northwest region is characterized by high temperature and low rainfall compare to

average condition of Bangladesh. The region is primarily prone to drought which is likely to

become more frequent and intense along with horizontal expansion due to climate change. It

is also important to note that changes in timing of drought will be other phenomenon,

resulting from erratic behavior and distribution of rainfall, and temperature rise. The major

impacts would be on agriculture and availability of water resources for agriculture and

domestic use particularly in the dry season. There is a strong possibility that moisture content

of the topsoil would decrease substantially resulting from decrease in winter precipitation and

higher evapo-transpiration. Late Kharif II drought in December would adversely affect Aman

crop at the ripening stage, while an early Rabi drought would more severely affect wheat and

Boro crops at both germination and vegetative growth stages (Karim et al 1998). Furthermore,

increasing moisture stress in early Kharif I would significantly affect Aus production. In Boro

Rice, it is revealed that up to 30 percent moisture stress will result 1 to 4 percent yield

reduction while reduction will be 10 to 33 percent at 60 percent moisture stress condition.

In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges

facing Bangladesh, an integrated and appropriately adaptation and mitigation ways and means

is required to combat climate change in near future. Present study describing the

characteristics of Northwest region of Bangladesh that make it particularly vulnerable to

climate change, before outlining the main climate change impacts that are of concern to

Bangladesh. These impacts will then be discussed in relation to their adverse effects on

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different sectors in this region. Finally, the local level responses to manage these effects will

be outlined, including actions that mitigate the impacts of climate variability in general and

find out the best adaptive means and ways.

Statement of the problem

The northern part of Bangladesh is situated in the Tista-Jumuna basin and contains many

tributaries to these rivers. Topography and micro-climate make northern Bangladesh

ecologically vulnerable to destabilizing variations of natural livelihood that is affected by

floods, river erosion, drought spells and often cold waves, all of which occur more frequently

and intensely than in other region of Bangladesh (www.icg.bangladesh.org). Climate change

incidents will affects the entire region and people will be affected at large scale. It is already

mentioned that the region is characterized by high temperature and low rainfall compare to

average condition of Bangladesh. It is prone to flood, flash flood, river bank erosion, drought,

cold wave pattern which is likely to become more frequent and intense along with horizontal

expansion due to climate change. It is also important to note that changes in timing of this

natural phenomenon which is influenced by the micro and macro level climatic condition is

really alarming resulting from erratic behavior and distribution of rainfall and temperature

rise. The major impacts would be on agriculture, fisheries, availability of water resources for

agriculture and domestic use, wet lands, food security, education, gender, human health and

working capacity, assets and assets developments, social security and on many more.

Review of Literature

Bangladesh ranks currently as one of the world‘s foremost climate change impacts prone

countries. Till now, some studies have attempted to deal with climate change in Bangladesh

but not as such on the ways and means of adaptation and mitigation on a particular region of

Bangladesh. Many physical and social sciences that subject of climate change is an

underlying factor which needs to be appreciated in underlying how these disciplines fit into

the wider picture. To combine with general background Burroughs (2001) provides a

balanced view to give the right weight to the impact of climate change on various disciplines.

This will involve assessing how the climate can vary on its own accord and then adding in the

question of how human activities may lead to further change. He gave a balanced coverage of

the physical principle of the global climate, its behavior on all the time scale, and the evidence

for and consequences of past change. Shapley (1953) depicts climate change, its evidence,

causes and effects. Lamb (1982) explores the basics about climate, reconstructed the past

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record of climate. Wigley et.al (1981) describes the past climate and their impact on man..

Themsan and Peray (1997) emphasize the effects of climate on the physical, biological and

cultural environments and include both present day and future relationships.

In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges

facing Bangladesh, an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model

(ABM) permits the dynamic interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic,

environmental and epidemiological dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these dimensions, including

nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or epidemics,

is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches. Angus et.at

( 2009) developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic

impacts on poverty, migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh

from 2001 to 2100. The model employs GIS and sub-district level census and economic data

and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model statistics to be generated on a national

scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more realistic treatment of

distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to generate

precise predictions of Bangladesh‘s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used

for integrated scenario exploration. So far the prototype model has demonstrated the

desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of the complex adaptive

system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed policy-

oriented model.

Agrawala, et.al (2003) structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends

and climate change scenarios for Bangladesh are assessed and key sectoral impacts are

identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second,

donor portfolios in Bangladesh are analyzed to examine the proportion of development

assistance activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project

documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate

change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is

conducted for coastal zones, particularly the coastal mangroves – the Sundarbans – which

have been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Huq and Ayers (2008)

analyzed the sectoral impacts (i.e. agriculture and fisheries, water resources and hydrology,

coastal areas, forestry /biodiversity, human health, urban areas and particularly vulnerable

groups) of climate change at present and future.

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Major works in Bangladesh on local level change of temperature and rainfall elements of

climate has been undertaken by Climate Change Cell (CCC 2009a). They used a model called

PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies). Develop by hardly center UK.

The model used data from 31 weather stations of Bangladesh and regression analysis is

performed. The model outputs are provided in a 50 km × 50 km grid format. The model was

used to project rainfall and temperature in 2030, 2031, 2050, 2051, 2070 and 2071 in

Bangladesh using ECHAM4 SRES A2 emission scenario as model output. The months

December, January, February was considered as winter and March, April and May as summer

season. The model obtain 6.93, 6.88, 6.84, 7.16, 7.17, 7.33 mm/d in those respective years,

where the baseline period (1961-1990) rainfall is 6., the 78 mm/d. However the major

findings of PRECIS model are-(1) Rainfall differentiate according to the monsoon and in

years (2) Rainfall will increase, (3) Monthly average maximum temperature will change, (4)

Monthly minimum temperature will increase, (5) variation of rainfall and temperature will

fluctuate on basis of location and (6) Bogra in North West region will have the maximum

temperature in 2030.Another major works was also conducted by the CCC (2009b), where

they attempted to characterize changes of Bangladesh climate in the context of agriculture and

irrigation. Here they also considered summer and winter season. The research showed that

annual and seasonal mean temperatures are found to have a general increasing trend in

Bangladesh. The magnitude of the trends is dependent on the period of analysis of the

available data. The overall trend in mean annual temperature is found to be +0.10 and +0.21

°C per decade for years 1948-2007 and 1980 to 2007 respectively. It concludes that warming

has been more rapid in recent decades. In addition Rahman et.al. (1997) found evidence of

changes in monsoon rainfall pattern.

All of these works mainly provide future changing scenarios of climatic elements (i.e.

temperature and rainfall) of Bangladesh based on the available historic data and had limited

focus on the retrospective kind of analysis to capture the real (not predicted), subtle nature of

climatic variables. It gave an overall changing trend applicable for all the regions of the

country, which may not provide the local level scale insights useful for relating that change to

different sectors like agriculture, fisheries of that area.

One of the pioneering works in Bangladesh to address climate change problems was carried

by Warrick et.al (1996). In seven briefing documents, they mainly tried to present the

scenarios of green house effects and climate change within the physical, social, and legal

frame works of the country. They put little emphasis on community resilience build up

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process. World Bank (2001a) also identifies climate change induced problems in coastal

resources, fresh water resources, agriculture, human health, ecosystem and bio-diversity.

Islam and Neelim (2010) tried to established local scale climate change that happen during the

last fifty years since when digital data on climate variables (especially temperature and

rainfall) are available with Bangladesh Meteorological Departments. The results of changes

were then overlaid on top of Bangladesh Agro Ecological Zones so that likely impacts of any

change on cropping pattern and on other sectors could be established. Mirza.et.al (1998) also

analyzed long term annual precipitation records of metrological sub divisions of the Ganges,

Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins are found no general significance change, with slight

exceptions in a few meteorological subdivisions.

Coping with climatic events like drought, cyclones and flooding are not new to Bangladesh.

There has been an important reduction in the number of deaths from cyclones due to the

establishment of efficient early warning systems and the construction of cyclone shelters. The

impacts of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate these existing stresses and constitute a

serious impediment to poverty reduction and economic development. Given that Bangladesh

has relatively low emissions of green house gases, the major effort will focus on adaptation

measures to cope with increased flooding, salinity intrusion and falling agricultural yields.

Hasan et.al (2007) attempted to study temperature rise and its probable impacts on socio-

economic development of Bangladesh. Many socio-economic activities highly depend on

weather and climate. A number of studies on the impact of climate change in Bangladesh

exist. Notable among them are those of Mahtab (1989), BUP (1994), Ali (1999). Rise in

temperature, as well as climate change of Bangladesh have been studied by different authors

like Chowdhury and Dedsharma (1992), Karmaker and Nessa (1997), Karmaker and Shrestha

(2000). They found that the annual mean temperature over Bangladesh has a slight increasing

trend during the period of 1961-1990.

The NGOs of Bangladesh have been trying to play an important role in reducing climate

change induced problems. They have been trying to assist people with different kind s of

programmes with the consideration that these interventions may provide backup support to

community level adaptive initiatives to cope with climate change uncertainties. Some of the

external interventions focus on livelihood protection; some are aimed at infrastructure

building, rehabilitation, and protection while some of the projects are deployed in reducing

psychological shocks and trauma. RDRS (2009) designed to short term project to expand the

capacity of rural poor communities in North-West Bangladesh to cope with natural calamities

named ‗Community Coping Mechanism for Climate Change‘. In this case drought considered

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due to irregular rainfall –by using alternative access to food and income. Undertaken with the

other NGO‘s to implement and monitor the activities. This indicated that how people with

limited resources would be able to respond in future to rapid shifts in their environments

brought about by climate change. GUK (2009) arranged an exceptional ‗Climate poverty

Hearing‘ program at Gaibandha district. The program was help on the open stage, making a

dummy court with the community people to established global climate justice. There were

panel members, complainers and guests on the stage. The claimers from the different districts

from North West region expressed their present vulnerable situation caused by different

disasters. Many of the local people of North-West region claimed that the rich countries of the

world responsible for their present situation as they are now aware of climate change. They

also implemented various programmes and projects on ‗Reduction of Disaster Risk and

Sustainable Environmental Management Programme‘.

Some of these above mentioned materials may be of help in explaining the impact of climate

change on various sectors considering both national and international context. Reviewing the

above mentioned materials it also helps to determine various issues to understand climate

change, its impact and vulnerabilities and find out possible options for adaptation and

mitigation.

Rationale of the Study

Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world and will become even

more so as a result of climate change. Floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges and droughts

are likely to become more frequent and severe in the coming years. Many would say that the

signs of the future changes have already begun to become apparent. These changes will

threaten the significance achievements Bangladesh has made over the last 20 years in

increasing incomes and reducing poverty, and will make it more difficult for sustainable

development. It is essential that Bangladesh prepares now to adapt to climate change and

safeguard the future well-being of its citizen. The rationale of the present study is to examine

the evidence of climate change and measure the impact of recent climate change phenomenon

in North West region of Bangladesh. It will help to gather information on vulnerability and

adaptation capacity considering both present and future. Though many works have been done

on climate in different areas of Bangladesh, but particularly empirical studies on Northwest

region did cover in a broad sense. It will identify best ways and means for adaptation and

mitigation of climate change impacts in northwest region in different sector. As a whole some

degree of enlightened the important livelihood resources/indigenous knowledge and skill may

be viewed and explore for cope up with climate change by facilitate dialogue between

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communities and local institutions on climate change vulnerability for community based

adaptation in northwest region considering river bank erosion prone community, drought

prone community, cold wave prone community and flood prone community for survival of

the local people and their livelihood in this region.

Events of Climate Change in Northwest Region

According to the secondary information the following phenomenon are considered as an

impact of climate change in northwest region-

- Flood/flash flood/ seasonal flood

- Drought

- Riverbank erosion

- Temperature fall/rise

- Cold wave

- Excessive rain/ uneven rainfall pattern

- Water logging

- Losing soil fertility

- Loss of biodiversity

- Pests and weeds

- Strom/thunder storm

Objectives

According to the above conceptual framework, the following specific questions are addressed

in the proposed research identifying the means and ways of adaptation and mitigation of

climate change in the north-west region of Bangladesh. The specific objectives of the research

are:

1. To gather information on vulnerability and adaptation capacity in Northwest region

considering both present and future.

2. To find out the climate change impacts and best ways and means for adaptation and

mitigation of those in northwest region in different sector ((i.e. agriculture, Fisheries,

wetlands, water, food security, education, gender, climate forecasts etc.)..

3. To facilitate dialogue between communities and local institutions on climate change

vulnerability for community based adaptation in Northwest region in three different

level- Household level, Local government level and National level.

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Research Methods and Approaches

Research Method

Climate change is expected to hit developing countries the hardest. Its effects—higher

temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent weather-

related disasters—pose risks for agriculture, food, and water supplies. At stake are recent

gains in the fight against poverty, hunger and disease, and the lives and livelihoods of billions

of people in developing countries. Tackling this immense challenge must involve both

mitigation—to avoid the unmanageable—and adaptation—to manage the unavoidable—all

while maintaining a focus on its social dimensions (World Bank, 2001)

Effective adaptation is based on a solid understanding of vulnerability to climate change. The

impacts of climate change affect people differently based on their capacity to respond. What

this means is that many of the factors which shape vulnerability to climate change have

nothing to do with the climate. Issues of power, access to information and services and

control over resources are important in determining people's capacity to adapt to climate

change. Therefore, it is needed to understand the socio-economic dimensions of vulnerability,

and in particular those factors that make women and other marginalized groups particularly

vulnerable ( CARE, 2001).

The Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA) methodology helps to understand

the implications of climate change for the lives and livelihoods of the people all over the

world. By combining local knowledge with scientific data, the process builds people‘s

understanding about climate risks and adaptation strategies. It provides a framework for

dialogue within communities, as well as between communities and other stakeholders. The

results provide a solid foundation for the identification of practical strategies to facilitate

community-based adaptation and mitigation to climate change.

The CVCA (Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis) methodology, developed by

CARE International, provides a framework for analyzing climate change vulnerability and

adaptive capacity at the community level. Recognizing that local actors must have the

opportunity to drive their own future, the CVCA places local knowledge on climate risks and

adaptation strategies at the forefront of the data gathering and analysis process. The main

objectives of the CVCA are, (1) analyze vulnerability to climate change and adaptive capacity

at the community level. It provides guidance and tools for participatory research and learning,

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and a guiding framework of questions for analyzing the information. It also takes into account

the role of local and national institutions and policies in facilitating adaptation, (2) combine

community knowledge and scientific data to yield greater understanding about local climate

change impacts.

The analytical framework of the CVCA is based on CARE‘s Community Based Adaptation

(CBA) Framework. It examines resilience factors at multiple levels (national, local

government/community, and household/individual levels). Field guides are provided for

conducting participatory analysis with different groups within communities. It is designed to

be used in conjunction with other resources, tools, and analytical frameworks, and links to

complementary resources. CARE believes that the most effective way to do this is through a

participatory analysis process which engages all stakeholders in understanding climate-related

challenges, identifying adaptation solutions and taking steps to act on those solutions. To

facilitate this, CARE has developed the Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA)

process to help the communities to better understand the implications of climate change for

the lives and livelihoods of the people (CARE, 2001). The methods considering the following

ten pillars-

1. Participatory Research Assessments exercises (prior to PRAs):Semi-structured

interview

2. Resource mapping

3. Historical timeline

4. Seasonal calendar

5. Community hazard mapping

6. Livelihoods strategy ranking

7. Cash flow diagrams

8. Venn diagram

9. Vulnerability ranking

10. Gender/vulnerable group analysis

The present study is not considering all those because of the time constrain. It only combining

local knowledge with scientific climate information, the process builds people's understanding

about climate risks and adaptation strategies by Participatory Research Assessments exercises

(prior to PRAs):Semi-structured interview. It uses the framework for dialogue within

communities, as well as between communities and other stakeholders. Most important, it

helps to identify those people within communities and households who may be particularly

vulnerable, and to better understand the challenges they face. It examines the important

livelihood resources by livelihoods strategy ranking and lastly, analysis gender/vulnerable

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group. The results of the analysis provide a solid foundation for the identification of practical

strategies to facilitate community-based adaptation to climate change. The knowledge can

also be used to integrate find out the best ways and means of adaptation and mitigation

considering livelihoods and natural resource management programs according to various

sectors, and to provide practical evidence for advocating pro-poor climate change policies.

The following research approach and target group is considered for in-depth interview, FGD

(Focus Group Discussion), KII (Key Information Interview) and Case Study.

Research Approach

Participatory Research Assessment ( PRA) and secondary research exercises ( prior

to PRAs)

Focused on communities (considering river bank erosion prone community, drought

prone community, cold wave prone community and flood prone community).

Recognizes the role of local and national institutions and policies in creating enabling

environment for community-based adaptation and mitigation

Analytical framework comprised of guiding questions

Emphasis on process for learning and dialogue

Links community knowledge to scientific climate data.

Target Group

Local partners (Government).

Local partners (NGOs, considering project managers and field staff on livelihoods

projects and community-based adaptation projects)

Communities

Household

Individual

The CVCA methodology provides a framework for analyzing vulnerability and capacity to

adapt to climate change at the community level. Recognizing that local actors must drive their

own future, the CVCA prioritizes local knowledge on climate risks and adaptation strategies

in the data gathering and analysis process. The main objectives of the CVCA are to:

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Analyze vulnerability to climate change and adaptive capacity at the community level

The CVCA is a methodology for gathering, organizing and analyzing information on the

vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities, households and individuals (photo 2.1). It

provides guidance and tools for participatory research, analysis and learning. It also takes into

account the role of local and national institutions and policies in facilitating adaptation.

Combine community knowledge and scientific data to yield greater understanding about

local impacts of climate change

One of the challenges of working at the local level on climate change adaptation is the lack of

scaled-down information on impacts. This is coupled with inadequate data and information on

weather and climate predictions. The process of gathering and analyzing information with

communities serves to build local knowledge on climate issues and appropriate strategies to

adapt. The participatory exercises and associated discussions provide opportunities to link

community knowledge to available scientific information on climate change. This will help

local stakeholders to understand the implications of climate change for their livelihoods, so

that they are better able to analyze risks and plan for adaptation.

The CVCA methodology is based on a framework of ―enabling factors‖ for Community-

Based Adaptation (CBA). It presents a set of guiding questions for analysis of information at

national, local and household/individual levels. It provides guidance on facilitating a

participatory process for multi-stakeholder analysis and collaborative learning.

The CVCA methodology provides a starting point for engaging stakeholders, assessing

current vulnerability and understanding future climate risks. Its results provide an excellent

foundation for designing, implementing and evaluating adaptation strategies through a

participatory learning and planning process (photo 2.3). The following sections describe the

analytical framework and the steps in the CVCA process.

A Framework for Community-Based Adaptation

Climate change is only one of many challenges facing poor people. In order to effectively

reduce vulnerability, climate change adaptation must form part of a holistic response which

aims to build resilience of communities to withstand the range of shocks and stresses that they

are exposed to.

From CARE‘s perspective, CBA requires an integrated approach which combines traditional

knowledge with innovative strategies to address current vulnerability while building adaptive

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capacity to face new and dynamic challenges (CARE, 2009). The process of CBA involves

four inter-related strategies:

Promotion of climate-resilient livelihoods strategies in combination with income

diversification and capacity building for planning and improved risk management;

Disaster risk reduction strategies to reduce the impact of hazards, particularly on

vulnerable households and individuals;

Capacity development for local civil society and governmental institutions so that

they can provide better support to communities, households and individuals in their

adaptation efforts; and

Advocacy and social mobilization to address the underlying causes of vulnerability,

such as poor governance, lack of control over resources, or limited access to basic

services

Data collection

Initially an extensive library search was undertaken in order to collect relevant materials. This

was involve collection and study of relevant books, journals, research reports, seminar

reports, unpublished documents and also reviewing reports and editorials of major or national

newspapers. To conduct a research based on the objective the present study were used both

qualitative and quantitative methods. An interview (semi structured) was done to collect

quantitative data, using face to face interview method. Besides, qualitative information will be

collected using participatory tools such as in-depth interview, FGD (Focus Group

Discussion), KII (Key Information Interview) and Case Study. For limitation of time a large-

scale qualitative survey was not planned but several sets of Focus Group Discussion (FGD)

will be undertaken incorporating cross section of people and organizations (both GO and

NGOs) in the Northwest region. The details of the respondents are given in appendix 2. The

fig 1.1 indicates the number of respondents covering the target group of four different climate

change prone communities. It is clear from the graph that different community cover different

number of target group . Highest number of information is collected from the individual

category, then household category is in second position. The other three categories (i.e. Local

partner, GO and NGOs and communities) show differenciation among the different climate

change incidents. This flactuation was happening due to availability of the respondents during

the survey period in the study area. Case study was also be made from the study areas,

documentation through digital recording i.e., still pictures were also be taken from the field.

As a whole a keen observation was done to gather information on household and life style of

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the study area. Some cartographic presentation of different zone of the study area is giving a

clear picture of various indicators and spatial differences.

Fig 1.1 Number of respondents covering the target group of four different communities.

Study Area

Initially study covered the whole Bangladesh (Fig 1.2a and 1.2b) for measuring the evidence

of climate change, to assess their impacts and vulnerability mainly from reviewing the

secondary information. Later it went through the regional setting to the Northwest region

(Table 1.1). The profile of the study area is given in Chapter 2 in details. The following

procedure is taken into consideration to demarcate the study area-

Sampling frame for present study, four districts of northwest Bangladesh are considered

(Kurigram, Nilphamari, Panchagarh and Gaibandha) (Fig 1.3). These were delimited on the

basis of available information and the degree of vulnerability from the climate change

incidents from the secondary sources and literature review.

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Source: Made by Author, 2010

Fig 1.2a Bangladesh (Administrative Unit with study area, districts)

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Source: Made by Author, 2010

Fig 1.2b North West region of Bangladesh (study area, upazila)

Table 1.1 Sampling frame in relation to climate change incidents

Districts Climate Change Incidents

Kurigram River bank erosion

Nilphamari Drought

Panchagarh Cold wave

Gaibandha Flood prone

Sampling procedure

Purposive sampling was done during the research time. The national newspapers focusing on

the climate change incident in a broad sense offer a great deal of insight into the problem as

the reports were dispatched by the local journalists at Upazilas and Union levels. A sequential

survey was made on these reports to examine the spatial context of the climate change events

in Northwest region Bangladesh from 1995 to 2010.

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Source: ASB, 2001

Fig 1.3 Map of Sampling frame (Districts)

Cartographically the spatial context was identified. For this GIS (Geographic Information

System) software will be used to find out the most climate change vulnerable Upazilas. This

was finalized after a field level verification.

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Units of observation and sampling size

As per existing information, the districts of Northwest region was considered, but of these at

least three Upazilas from four districts was selected for the present study according to the

above mentioned sampling procedure (Table 1.2). The detail of the investigating areas is

given in appendix-1.

Table 1.2 Unit of observation and sample size (Districts and Upazilas)

Unit of Observation

( District)

Unit of Observation

(Upazila)

Kurigram

Kurigram Sadar

Nageshwari

Chilmari

Nilphamari Nilphamari Sadar

Dimla

Jaldhaka

Panchagarh Panchagarh sadar

Tentulia

Boda

Gaibandha Gaibandha sadar

Saghatta

Sundarganj

Data processing

The collected information was processed qualitatively as well as quantitatively. Qualitative

modes of analysis will be concerned with textual analysis of FGD and case studies. The

quantitative and qualitative data was processed through computer with the help of EXCEL

and WORD software respectively for livelihood and vulnerability ranking and to find out the

best means and ways of adaptation and mitigation of climate change in Northwest region.

Some of the secondary data was concern for mapping of assessing general physical and socio-

economic condition of the Northwest region. The special software ArcView-3.3 and ArcGIS-

0.9 used for cartographic presentation. The statistical method (Standard Deviation) was

applied to show the spatial distribution pattern of some of the key indicators to examine the

social economic condition of the Northwest region at national level covering 64 districts of

Bangladesh.

Scope of the Study

It has already been mentioned that there has been little studies on climate change in

Northwest region considering adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts. Many

studies has attempted to deal with the climate change incidents at national level but of them

very less is concentrated on regional context. That is why the present studies deserve

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importance and by opening up scope for research. It identified the evidence and impacts of

climate change on regional basis. The scope of the study empirically explore, in some details,

the strategies they employ over time as they strive to cope and eventually adopted by poor

communities as climate change impacts on their highly complex livelihood systems. This was

also provided insights into the impacts of present and future exposure on the resilience and

traditional coping strategies and livelihood of the local communities resulting the means and

ways of adaptation and mitigation for the poor people. The research also however, shed light

on assessing the response of the three level household/individual, local level/community and

national level- utilizing their thinking, knowledge, skill to counteract the aftermath of climate

change impacts of North West region.

Further Research Option

Participatory research is valuable for gathering information and understanding a range of

perceptions at a local level and for designing local level interventions that may help hundreds

of people. However, it is time-consuming, and can‘t easily be generalized to other locations.

Participatory research alone is seldom sufficient to influence national policies or convince

decision-makers to change things that can affect millions of people; the results can be seen as

―just stories‖ or anecdotes.

In order to broaden the understanding of different situations, and to strengthen the ability to

influence policies and programs more widely, participatory research can form the basis for

design of large-scale, survey-based studies. Information and perceptions gained by using the

guiding questions and tools outlined above can help for thinking, and to identify more specific

questions that can be used in surveys covering many people in a large number of locations.

This can improve the understanding of the various ways in which climate change may affect

different parts of a country. Such broader perspectives can be valuable as the basis for

influencing a range of national policies and practices impacting millions of people, such as

agricultural research and development priorities, standards for surface water utilization, or

development of infrastructure for densely populated areas.

Limitations

There are some limitations of the CVCA method when it applied at field level. They are as

follows:

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a. The CVCA assumes an established relationship with the communities that will engage

with in the process. Without an existing relationship, the process of developing trust in

order to undertake the participatory analysis can be time-consuming.

b. The analysis has been carried out by only one person, whereas it is designed to be by a

team. It has been cross-checked with the project staff however.

c. The assessment was not able to use all the suggested Participatory Research

Assessment tools.

d. The PRAs were carried out with mixed groups of women and men, whereas a gender

segregated process is encouraged. However due to the possibility of only conducting

one set of sessions, both genders were included.

Summary and Conclusion

Climate change is a major threat to sustainable growth and development in Bangladesh, and

the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. Although Bangladesh is the country

least responsible for climate change, it is particularly vulnerable to the effects, including

reduced agricultural production, worsening food security, the increased incidence of both

flooding and drought, spreading disease and an increased risk of conflict over scarce land and

water resources. The CVCA method when it applied for the present study it is found that it

was one of the best method to find out the climate vulnerability and the ways of adaptation

and mitigation of the climate change risk at region context considering the North West region

of Bangladesh. The frame work of this method is really very applicable to gather information

from the target group. On the other hand, the method is easily understood to continue the

process to collect and analyze the data. Community people easily participate with this

process. But before going field level verification the method indicated to make a strong

background of the study area mainly from the secondary sources. According this it is a well-

balanced method to combine both primary and secondary information. The following chapter

assesses the general physical and socio-economic condition of the community of study area

on the basis of secondary information. Thus it will help to understand past, present and future

scenario of the climate change and people‘s perception about it as well as their knowledge

and skill to find out the means and ways of climate change adaptation and mitigation.

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ASSESSING THE GENER AL ISSUES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BANGLADESH AND PHYSICAL/ SOCIO-ECONOMIC SIG N OF THE NORTHWEST REGION

Introduction

Bangladesh is recognized worldwide as one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of

global warming and climate change. This is due to its unique geographic location, dominance

of floodplains and low elevation from the sea, high population density, high levels of poverty,

and overwhelming dependence on nature, its resources and services. The country has a history

of extreme climatic events claiming millions of lives and destroying past development gains.

Variability in rainfall pattern, combined with increased snow melt from the Himalayas, and

temperature extremes are resulting in crop damage and failure, preventing farmers and those

dependent from meaningful earning opportunities. In a changing climate the pattern of

impacts are eroding assets, investment and future. This stands for families, communities and

the state. Global warming and climate change threatens settlements and the number of people

displaced from their land due to riverbank erosion, permanent inundation and sea level rise

which are increasing rapidly every year. Resources and efforts of government and people are

quickly drained addressing the impact of one event when another hazard strikes. Impacts of

global warming and climate change have the potential to challenge country‘s development

efforts, human security and the future.

During the 20th century the average temperature has risen by 0.8°C over land and 0.5°C at

sea. It is widely agreed by the scientific community that human activities are altering our

climate system and that the temperature will continue to rise. The United Nations

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts the following impacts due to

climate change:

- Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms and floods are likely to increase

both in frequency and magnitude

-Increased level of flooding, accelerated erosion, loss of wetland and mangroves and

seawater intrusion in freshwater reserves in many coastal areas

Chapter 2

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-the number of people living in areas that are water stressed is projected to increase to

several billions by 2050.

Impacts of climate change will affect developing nations most and climate change is a serious

threat to poverty eradication (ADB, 2003). This is explained by geographical and climatic

conditions in many developing countries but also on their higher dependence on natural

resources and limited capacity to adapt to the changes. Human induced climate change is

mainly caused by use of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal), deforestation and emissions of

methane from livestock, agriculture and waste dumps.

Three dimensional (Fig 2.1) model of the region clearly indicates that Bay of Bengal and

Indian Ocean in the south and major uplands in remaining three areas have strong influence

on the rainfall occurrence, water discharge and sediments flow through the river systems of

Bangladesh. The Himalayan mountain range builds 7 to 8 kilometers high wall in the

immediate Northern parts of Bangladesh, which influence the thermodynamic properties of

monsoon clouds and result in bounce back parts of monsoon winds causing downward gliding

of clouds. As a result condensation of water vapor happens and resulted in the occurrence of

rainfall in the region. Thus the rainfall occurs over about 1.72 million square kilometers of

Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) catchments (12 times larger than the area of

Bangladesh) (Islam and Neelim, 2010).

Source: Islam and Neelim, 2010

Fig 2.1 Physical model (not to the scale) of Asian sub-continent depicts that the physical landscape of

the region has a profound impact on the physical and climatic processes of Bangladesh.

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Bangladesh in a Changing Climate

Assessment of average temperature and precipitation over Bangladesh has been done using a

new version of MAGICC/SCENGEN based upon over a dozen recent GCMs. The results

obtained by Agrawala et al. (2003) for changes in temperature have been adopted by The

National Adaptation Programme for Action (NAPA) (Table 2.1) for Bangladesh. But the

results of Agrawala et al. regarding changes in precipitation were modified. Identified

changes are as follows-

Table 2.1 Scenarios provided in NAPA document

Year Temperature change (°C) mean Rainfall change (%) mean Sea Level Rise (cm)

Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA JJA

2030 1.0 1.1 0.8 5 -2 6 14

2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 -5 8 32

2100 2.4 2.7 1.9 10 -10 12 88

Source: NAPA, 2005.

A scenario of sea-level rise has also been presented in The NAPA document. However there

were no evidences presented in the document in support of the data. Eventually the upper

values of the IPCC SLR Scenario was adopted for developing the scenarios for 2050 and

2100, while the curve was extrapolated for developing the 2030 SLR scenario (NAPA, 2005).

Using a number of GCMs including Canadian Climate Centre Model (CCCM), Geophysical

Fluid Dynamics Laboratory equilibrium model (GFDL), and 1% transient model of GFDL

(i.e., GF01) (Table 2.2) a model-driven climate change scenario was generated:

Table 2.2 Outputs of GCM exercise using GFD 01 transient model

Year Average

Temperature

Temperature

increase

Average

Precipitation Precipitation Increase

W M Ave W M Ave W M Ave W M Ave

(oC) (oC) Mm/month Mm/Month

1990 19.9 28.7 25.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 418 179 0 0 0

2030 21.4 29.4 27.0 1.3 0.7 1.3 18 465 189 +6 47 10

2075 22.0 30.4 28.3 2.1 1.7 2.6 00 530 207 -12 112 28

Source: Ahmed, 2000.

Another model-driven climate change scenario was generated based on ensemble technique

which is applicable for Bangladesh. Projected temperature rise according to the Bangladesh

Country Study for the U.S. Country Studies Program was 1.3°C by 2030 (over mid-20th

century levels) and 2.6°C by 2070. However, this projection was made using an older version

of the Geographical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) transient model (Mahtab, 1991).

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This is slightly higher than the projection made in Table 2.3 and may reflect lower climate

sensitivity in more recent climate models. Nonetheless, the central findings are coherent with

the analysis presented above: the report estimated that winter warming would be greater than

summer warming. Also according to the estimation in the study, there would be little change

in winter precipitation and enhancement in precipitation during the monsoon (Ahmed and

Alam, 1989).

Table 2.3 GCM projections for changes in temperature and precipitation for Bangladesh

Temperature change (°C) mean Rainfall change (%) mean

Year (standard deviation) (standard deviation)

Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA

Baseline

average

2030

1.0 (0.11) 1.1 (0.18) 0.8 (0.16) 3.8 (2.30) -1.2 (12.56)

+4.7

(3.17

)

2050 1.4 (0.16) 1.6 (0.26) 1.1 (0.23) +5.6 (3.33) -1.7 (18.15)

+6.8

(4.58

)

2100 2.4 (0.28) 2.7 (0.46) 1.9 (0.40) +9.7 (5.8) -3.0 (31.6)

+11.8

(7.97

)

Source: Ahmed, 2000

The above projections of climate parameters may be concluded that the country will be highly

susceptible to: (a) increased flooding, both in terms of extent and frequency; (b) increased

moisture stress during dry periods leading to increased drought susceptibility in terms of both

intensity and frequency; and (c) increased salinity intrusion during the low flow conditions.

These changes in the physical system of the country will directly affect a number of major

productive systems that include (a) crop agriculture, (b) livestock production, (c) aquaculture

and fish production, (d) coastal shrimp production, and (e) forest and vegetation and (f)

livelihoods of poor and marginal households. Due to changes in temperature and humidity,

human health will also be affected. The high susceptibility to water-based natural hazards will

affect settlement of the population and also physical immobile infrastructure. Based on

secondary sources, the following sub-sections and table 2.4 provide brief understanding on

anticipated impacts of climate change on bio-physical aspects of the country. The following

are key likely impacts due to climate change extracted from different impact predictions for

Bangladesh.

• Heat stress will increase and summer duration would be longer. Huge pressures on

basic facilities and existing support services (water, sanitation and health).

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• Inadequate water supply and health facilities for the poor within the hotspots.

Decrease ground water supply, deteriorate water quality, reduce recharge of ground

water, and reduce water availability for rain fed-agriculture.

• Rainfall erratic and untimely.

• Increase social and mental health stress, food security, safe drinking water problem,

insecure shelters, and unsafe health condition.

• Loss of forestation and degradation of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity. The

composition of geographic distribution of ecosystems will change as individual

species respond to new conditions due to climate change.

• Sea level rise and salinity intrusion in the coastal zone. Small islands are extremely

vulnerable. Thousands of people are displacing from coastal and islands community.

Possible more sea level rise will dislocate millions from their livelihoods and displace

them from settlements.

• Huge damages of livelihood resources, livestock and live support systems by

climatic extremes (Floods, erosion, cyclones etc.) enhance mass migration.

• Damages of infrastructures and poor housing and phenomenal growth in human

settlements and communication.

• Over 35 million will be climate refugees in Bangladesh by 2050. This will induce

internal and external migration. Drought prone areas in Bangladesh in Rajshahi

region. It facing many challenges in agriculture, commerce and forestry sector.

• Cyclone and Salinity affected Coastal Zones of Bangladesh Flood affected People

Poor/Climate Refugees are on move to main Cities in Bangladesh from different

Climate Hotspots.

• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) would be unsuccessful within the hotspots and

economic and all development process will face various obstacles and GDP is not

being achieved.

• Increase some infectious vectors disease such as malaria and Schistosomiasis and

nuisance attack.

• Forced migration and social conflicts increasing gradually from hotspots to safer

zones.

• Unplanned urbanization and growing slums in the big cities rapidly

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Table 2.4 Critical vulnerable areas and most impacted sectors due to climate change in

Bangladesh

Climate and Related

Elements

Critical Vulnerable Areas Most Impacted Sectors

Temperature rise and drought

• North-west

• Agriculture (crop,

livestock, fisheries)

• Water

• Energy

• Health

Sea Level Rise and Salinity

Intrusion

• Coastal Area

• Island


fisheries, livestock)

• Water (water logging,

drinking water, urban)

• Human settlement

• Energy

• Health

Floods

• Central Region

• North East Region

• Char land


fisheries, livestock)

• Water (urban, industry)

• Infrastructure


• Health

• Disaster

• Energy

Cyclone and Storm Surge1

• Coastal Zone

• Marine Zone

• Marine Fishing

• Infrastructure


• Life and property

Drainage congestion

• Coastal Area

• Urban

• South West

• Water (Navigation)

• Agriculture (crop)

Source: NAPA, 2005.

Climate Change and Security Issues in Bangladesh

The climate change in Bangladesh creates insecurities for food, water, life, property,

settlement, livelihood assets, livelihoods and others. Climatic impacts reduce securities

directly and indirectly. Environmental degradation, degradation of land resources ultimately

reduces food securities, health securities etc. and at the same time increases conflicts over

resources and livelihood persuasions. Following are limited elaborations of insecure domains;

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Frequency of formation of cyclone in the Bay resulted in frequent return of fishermen from

the deep sea.

Food security: Loss of crop due to flood, storm surge, cyclone, and drought are increasing

every year. Salinity and permanent inundation are also limiting crop production.

Water scarcity: Reduced precipitation, prolonged dry season and drought are resulting

scarcity of drinking water. Contamination of fresh water resources with saline water are

reported in the coastal aquifer.

Loss of property and life: An increasing number of people are suffering damage or loss to

their property and sometime life. Increased cyclone, storm surges, floods, river bank erosion

destroys and damage peoples properties including land, house, cattle, and other livelihood

assets and living essentials. Frequent disasters increases damage and loss by many folds.

Land degradation and loss: Following the climate change, the river bank and coastal erosion

are increasing at alarming rate. According to IPCC findings a 45 cm sea-level rise will

inundate almost 10.9% of our territory and will displace 5.5 million populations of our coastal

regions. Salinity intrusion into the country side reached 100km and degrades land resources.

Land use for farming, shrimp and other uses in the declining context generates conflicts.

Loss of livelihoods: Land loss and degradation, scarcity of water, floods, and other hazards

reduces livelihood opportunities. The rough sea limits fishing opportunities. Health hazards,

malnutrition, access to services prior, during and after disasters reduce working days and

opportunities.

Insecurity of women: Women and disadvantaged groups are suffering more during disasters

as they don‘t receive warning in time and women has to take care of their children, elderly

and disabled.

Displacement: People compelled to move from their land to other places raises conflicts for

resources where they move. Most migrants end up in urban slums, particularly in Dhaka

(capital), and there is some evidence that this constant influx of people is contributing to

rising crime and insecurity in these areas.

Climate Change Hotspots and Adaptation in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh there are some places which are in more dangerous condition due to the

impacts of climate change. These are called climate change hotspots. It examines the potential

caring penalty of climate change within the next 20 to 30 years. Climate change is taking

place at a rapid rate outstripping many worst case predictions. Climate-related disaster events

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are having an impact on more communities around the globe. Humanitarian organizations

have realized that climate change does not mean ‗business as usual‘. The extent, nature and

patterns of natural hazards and disasters are changing and very likely will continue to do so.

Climate change hotspots in Bangladesh are determined based on the following considerations:

hazard exposures, impact on biodiversity and conservation of marine and coastal resources,

impact on life, livelihood and wellbeing of inhabitants of the areas. The degree of

vulnerability of human health, water, agriculture and commercial forestry sector is also

considered in identifying hotspots. The major climate change hotspots in Bangladesh are as

follows:

• Cyclone-risk hotspots start from Bay of Bengal and damage crop, vegetation and lead

to floods and storm surges. It includes the Coastal districts located in the southern

area of the country. Cyclones and tidal surges attacked Bangladesh in 1991, 1998,

2000, 2004 and 2007.

• Flood-risk hotspots were identified in Middle and Northern-Eastern part of

Bangladesh. Recent severe floods: 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007. Floods in Bangladesh

in 2007 occur two times prolonged causing 40% crop loss, outbreak of diarrhea

diseases and severe food insecurity.

• Drought-risk hotspots in Bangladesh are mainly located in Northern-West region

which includes Rajshahi, Kurigram, Nilphamari, Rangpur and Dinajpur districts.

Bothe extent and severity of drought has increased and the consequences are Poverty,

food insecurity and hunger.

• Salinity risk hotspots are located mainly in coastal districts which have a vast network

of rivers and a large number of islands. Salinity intrusion started from the lower-

upper area of coastal region to nearest upholds.

Examples of adaptive responses due to different types of Climate Change

The scenario development workshops and secondary review of literatures suggested the

following adaptation options and practices in different climate change hotspots.

FLOOD PRONE REGIONS

Adaptation option Typology of adaptation

Purposefulness Timing

Resilient Housing

Structure

Flood Resilient Housing Structure Autonomous Anticipatory,

Proactive

Raising Plinth of the House Spontaneous Anticipatory,

Proactive

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Adapting with Food

Insecurity

Flood Resilient Crop Storage Autonomous Anticipatory,

Proactive

Food Preservation Spontaneous Anticipatory,

Proactive

Homestead Gardening Spontaneous Proactive,

Reactive

China Autonomous Anticipatory

Maize spontaneous Anticipatory

Kaon Autonomous Anticipatory

Felon Autonomous Anticipatory

Pera Autonomous Anticipatory

Adapting with Water

Scarcity

Protecting Fresh Drinking Water

Through Raising Tubewell‘s Plinth Autonomous Proactive

Adapting with Energy

Use and Efficiency

Traditional Ways of Preservation of

Fuels Spontaneous

Proactive,

Re active

Optimizing Production

Proviso

Seed storage Autonomous Proactive

Alternative Livelihood – Mushuri Kalai Autonomous Anticipatory,

proactive

Organic Manure Spontaneous Proactive

Duck Rearing Spontaneous Proactive,

Reactive

Peanut Plantation Spontaneous Proactive

Sugar Cane Autonomous Proactive

Banana Spontaneous Proactive

Bhenda – A Medicinal Plant Spontaneous Proactive

Conservation of Tall Grasses (Kashban) Autonomous Anticipatory

Adapting and

Community Resilience

Constructions of Protection

Embankment

Autonomous,

Planned Proactive

FLASH FLOOD PRONE REGIONS

Adaptation Adaptation typology


Resilient Housing

Structure

Protecting Homestead and

Embankments in the Haor Regions Autonomous Proactive

Housing pattern of Hilly Area Spontaneous Proactive

Optimizing Production

Proviso

Adapting in Wetlands – Harvesting

Plants Spontaneous Proactive

Duck Rearing Spontaneous Proactive,

Reactive

Harvesting Firewood from Flash Floods Spontaneous Reactive

Murta Cultivation and Weaving Shitol

Pati Autonomous

Proactive,

Re active

Manufacturing Cane Furniture in

Shunamgonj Autonomous

Proactive,

Re active

Community Resilience Seeds Storage Autonomous Proactive

Protection Embankment Autonomous Proactive

Bridge over Troubled Water Autonomous Reactive

WATER LOGGED REGIONS

Adaptation option Adaptation typology


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Adapting with food

insecurity

Hazard Resilient Crop Storage Autonomous Proactive,

Anticipatory

Food Preservation Autonomous Proactive,

Anticipatory

Adapting with energy

use and efficiency


Fuels Spontaneous

Proactive,

reactive

Optimizing production

proviso and adapting

Floating Agriculture Autonomous Proactive,

Anticipatory


Fish Collection Spontaneous reactive

The Kandi Method Autonomous Proactive,

Anticipatory

Reed Mat Weaving Autonomous Proactive,

Anticipatory

Adapting and

community resilience

Cohesion and Cooperation in

Dewatering Autonomous reactive

Integrating Farming Autonomous

Proactive,

Anticipatory,

reactive

SALINITY PRONE REGIONS

Adaptation option Adaptation typology

purposefulness Timing

Striving for Food

Security Kewra Autonomous

Proactive,

Anticipatory

Adapting with water

scarcity

Rain Water Harvesting Autonomous Proactive,

Anticipatory

Preserving Fresh Drinking Water in

Coastal Zones Spontaneous

Proactive,

Anticipatory,

Reactive

Sourcing and Harvesting Drinking Water

– Ring Well Autonomous

Proactive,

Reactive

Pond Water Conservation for Drinking

Autonomous

Proactive,

Reactive

purpose


use and efficiency


Fuels Spontaneous

Proactive,

Reactive


proviso and adapting

Shrimp Cultivation Autonomous Anticipatory

Reed Mat Weaving Autonomous Reactive

Prawn Renu Autonomous Reactive

Crab Aquaculture Autonomous Anticipatory

Salted lives and Silted Livelihood:

Golpata Autonomous

Anticipatory,

Reactive

Salt Cultivation Autonomous Anticipatory,

Reactive

CYCLONE PRONE REGIONS

Adaptation option Adaptation Typology


Resilient Housing Structure and

Adapting Autonomous

Anticipatory,

proactive

DROUGHT PRONE REGIONS

Adaptation option Adaptation Typology

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Resilient Housing

Structure and Adapting The Mud House in Weather Extremities Spontaneous Proactive

Adapting with Food

Insecurity

The Rakkha Gola Autonomous Proactive

Homestead Gardening Spontaneous Proactive

Maize Spontaneous Proactive

Heat Tolerant Rice Cultivation Autonomous Proactive

Adapting with water

scarcity

Dealing with Drinking in Dry Days Spontaneous Reactive

Conservation of Surface Water Autonomous Reactive

Mini Ponds, Many Lessons Autonomous Reactive


use and efficiency


Fuels Spontaneous

Reactive,

Proactive


proviso

Nurturing the Natural Dewdrops Spontaneous Reactive

Mango Cultivation Autonomous Reactive

Lakkha as Alternative Livelihood Autonomous Reactive

Apel Kul Cultivation in the Drylands Autonomous Reactive


Seeds Storages Autonomous Reactive

Duck Rearing Spontaneous Proactive

Source: NAPA, 2005

Assessing the General Physical and Socio-economic Sign of Northwest Region

Bangladesh is influenced by seasonal characteristics and different variables of climate such as

temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc. It is also often constrained by different

disasters such as floods, droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclone and storm surges. Several

studies indicated that climate is changing and becoming more unpredictable every year in

Bangladesh. Its variability extreme weather events are being experienced more frequently

than ever before. Hazards like floods, river bank erosion, droughts, cyclones and salinity

intrusion are likely to be aggravated by climate change and sea level rise. Flood and water

logging in the central region, flash-flood in the northeast region, drought in the northwest and

southwest region, and salinity intrusion and coastal inundation in the coastal regional would

be a more acute problem in future. All of these will have an extra bearing on the agriculture,

fisheries, wetlands, water, food security, education, gender, human health and asset sector.

The northwest region is characterized by high temperature and low rainfall compare to

average condition of Bangladesh. The region is primarily prone to drought, flood and river

bank erosion which is likely to become more frequent and intense along with horizontal

expansion due to climate change. It is also important to note that changes in timing of

drought, flood, river bank erosion and cold wave will be extreme phenomenon, resulting from

erratic behavior and distribution of rainfall and temperature rise.

The districts of Kurigram, Nilphamari, Panchagarh and Gaibandha are regarded as the climate

change incident districts due to river bank erosion, drought, and cold wave and flood

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respectively. Apart from these, the incidents are more acute within the upazila level. For the

present study Kurigram Sadar, Nageshwari, Chilmari considered as more river bank erosion

prone upazila covering Kurigram district, Nilphamari Sadar, Dimla, Jaldhaka considered as

more drought prone upazila covering Nilphamari district, Panchagarh sadar, Tentulia, Boda

considered as more cold wave prone upazila covering Panchagarh district and Gaibandha

sadar, Saghatta, Sundarganj considered as more flood prone upazila covering Gaibandha

district . The geographical indicator of the study area is given in table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Geographical indicators of the study area (districts) 2001.

Districts Total

Area

Upazilas (Uz) Nos. of

Uz

Population

(in '000)

Kurigram 2296 sq.

km.

Kurigram, Bhuramgamari, Chilmari,

Rajibpur, Phulbari, Rajarhat, Raumari,

Ulipur and Nageshwari

9 1763

Nilphamari 1581 sq.

km

Nilphamari, Dimla, Domar, Saidpur,

Jaldhaka, and Kishoreganj,

6 1562

Panchagarh 1404 sq.

km

Panchagarh , Boda, Debiganj, Atwari

and Tentulia

5 829

Gaibandha 2179 sq.

km.

Gaibandha, Phulchhari, Gobindaganj,

Palashbari, Sadullapur, Saghata and

Sundarganj

7 2130

Source: BBS, 2005.

In the following section the environmental conditions of the study area (above mentioned

districts) are described in two terms: (i) physical conditions, and (ii) socio-economic

conditions. These provide a generalized picture having bearing on human habitat and

economy of the study area in North West Bangladesh.

General Physical Conditions

Physiography. Physiographic characteristics of a region are important in relation to

agricultural development. It is the key physical factor having bearing on irrigation, drainage,

floodibility and soil structure. The study area belong to the physiographic units of the flood

plain area of 1 and 2 as indicated in Fig 3.1, which are part of the piedmont plain and most of

the Tista flood plain (Brammer, 1996). The piedmont plain comprises gently sloping land at

the foot of the Himalayan hills where alluvial sediments derived from the hills have been

deposited by rivers or streams. Rivers in such places shift their channels periodically, thereby

forming alluvial outwash fans on which close intermixtures of sediments of different textures

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occur.

Such characteristics are not suitable for soil development and/or agriculture. The soil

formations often are complex, therefore, piedmont plains occur not only at the foot of the

northern and eastern hills, but also at the foot of the Himalayas (in India), extending into the

Dinajpur and part of Rangpur districts of Bangladesh (Fig 3.1). The physiographic

Source: SRDI, 1997 and Rashid, 1991

Fig 3.1 Physiography of Bangladesh

characteristics influence the nature and formation of soils in a marked way. The deposits are

coarser sand and the relief more pronounced than in the adjoining, younger Tista flood plain.

This suggests that the sediments came down either at a time of rapid snow melt at the end of

the last Glacial Period and of higher rainfall during the Holocene Period (about 60,000 years

ago); or following catastrophic earth movements in the Himalayas during either of these

periods. A relatively younger part of the Himalayan piedmont plain occupies the northwestern

part of Rangpur region (in physiographic unit-2).The deposits there are somewhat finer

clastics and braided river pattern is much closer, suggesting that they belong to a distributor-

channel of the Old Tista (Buri Tista) rather than to the main river course (Brammer, 2000).

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River system. Tables 3.2 and 3.3 show the major of rivers of the study areas including their

command areas respectively. The water flows of such rivers are very important for agriculture

and normal livelihood of the people. But a number of rivers are silted up and only flow during

rainy season affecting farming activities and livelihood of the local people. Some rivers in the

North West region have also dried up, like, the Ghaghat, Karotoya, Bangali, Trimohini,

Jamuneswari etc. On the other hand, others are so active that they lead to the possibilities of

local floods (often triggered off by sheet or flash floods) and riverbank erosion. However, in

this area, the most dynamic rivers are the Tista, Buri Tista, Ghaghat, Dharla, Jamuna-

Brahmaputra, Karotoya, Dhudkumar and Trimohini, which cause frequent flood and

riverbank erosion in the Monga-prone areas (Fig. 3.2).

Table 3.2 Rivers of the study areas.

Districts Major Rivers

Gaibandha Ghaghat, Karotoya, Bangali, Gajaria and Tista.

Kurigram Brahmaputra, Dharla, Tista, Dudhkumar, Phulkumar, Sonabari,

Jinjiram, Halhali and Jalchia.

Panchagarh Karatoya, Atrai, Tista, Mahananda, Tangon, Dahuk, Pathraj, Bhulli,

Talma, Nagar, Chawai, Kurum, Versa, Tirnoi, Chilka

Nilphamari Buri Tista, Tista, Jamuneshwari, Manas-Alaijurhi Burhikhora-Chikli,

Dhaigar and Charalkata.

Source: ASB, 2003; and Hossain, 2000.

Apart from these, there are a number of small rivers, at present almost dead with sediment

deposition and/or siltation. These are: Komlai, Dhum, Awliakhora, Barail, Chowra, Pangsha,

Nilia, Katakhali, Sati, Bamni, Bullai, Kharuataj, Dhanjal, Katagarha, Kala, Morchi, Talai,

Dara, Sonamati, Danjar, Sarbamangala, Bagdogra, Nautara, Kalamdar, Shingimari, Halhalia,

Dharni, Sonabhari, Gurhgurhi, Bherbheri, Farhinga and so on (Hossain, 2000). The sandy

soils (incepticols) along these rivers are almost unproductive or mostly put to mono-culture

due to the coarse texture and lack of organic matter, i.e. soil nutrients.

Table 3.3 Major rivers by length and the districts covered.

River Lengths

(km.)

Area covered (former districts)

Brahmaputra-Jamuna (Jamuna: 207

km)

276 Rangpur, Pabna, Mymensingh, Tangail

Ghaghat 236 Rangpur

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Karotoya-Atrai-Gur-Gumuni-

Hurasagor

597 Dinajpur, Rajshahi, Pabna

Punarbhaba 160 Dinajpur, Rajshahi

Tista 115 Rangpur

Source: BBS, 2004

Source: Reinman, 1993

Fig 3.2 Main rivers of Bangladesh

Climate. Bangladesh has, in general, a tropical-humid climate with three main seasons - the

hot and humid summer, the rainy season, and the mild and relatively dry winter. Spring and

autumn are brief but can be distinguished by changes in vegetation as well as mean daily

temperature. Mean annual temperature in Bangladesh is about 26 C and mean annual rainfall

is 2540 mm (BBS, 2004). But the study area in North West Bangladesh has relatively

extreme climate with mean maximum summer temperature of about 32.5 C and the mean

winter temperature of approximately 10.1 C (Table 3.4).

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Source: Rashid, 1991

Fig 3.3 Climatic regions of Bangladesh

The summer is relatively dry and the rainy season is very wet, and towards the west the

extremes are lower than those in the northern-eastern part of Bangladesh. Likewise, the

rainfall is also lower. Some parts, as in Rajshahi and parts of adjacent districts, are the driest

areas of the whole country with mean annual rainfall below 2042 mm. The average rainfall of

the study areas shows that it is below the mean annual rainfall condition of the country. The

overall climatic characteristics indicate that the Northwest part is comparatively dry and

warmer than other regions (Table 3.4). Fig 3.3 and 3.4 show that the study areas are situated

within such a characteristic region where the micro-climatic conditions in terms of

temperature and rainfall are altogether different from the rest of the country.

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Table 3.4 Average temperature of the study area districts.

Districts Mean Temperature ( C) Mean annual

Highest Lowest Rainfall (mm)

Nilphamari 32.3 11.2 1708

Kurigram 32.3 11.2 2100

Panchagarh 30.2 10.1 2931

Gaibandha 33.5 10.5 2120

Source: ASB, 2003, and Rashid, 1991.

Source: Brammar, 1996

Fig 3.4 Mean annual rainfall of Bangladesh

Soil. As noted earlier, the northern part of Bangladesh is situated in the floodplain units

formed by the Tista, Brahmaputra-Jamuna, Karotoya, Dharla, Dhudkumar and Ghaghat

rivers. Excepting the first two (Tista, Brahmaputra-Jamuna) others have now become non-

perennial. It has complex patterns of low, generally smooth ridges, inter-ridge depressions

and cut-off channels. The area has irregular patterns of gray stratified sands and silts.

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Source: Brammaer, 1996

Fig 3.5 General soil map of Bangladesh

There is an overall pattern of olive brown rapidly permeable, loamy soils on the high

floodplain ridges and gray or dark gray, slowly permeable heavy silt loam or silt clay loam

soils on the low land, and have materials rich in minerals. Fig 3.5 shows the general soil

types of the study area covering soil types 1, 5, 6, 7 and 8 of which non-calcareous gray

floodplain and non-calcareous brown floodplain soils are the two major soil types (Brammar,

1996). They are moderately acidic throughout, low in organic matter content on the higher

land, but moderate in the lower parts. They cover most of the Greater Rangpur, eastern part of

Panchagarh and Dinajpur, northern Bogra and parts of Joypurhat, Naogaon and Rajshahi

districts (Brammar, 1996). Overall, such soils have low water or moisture retaining capacity

and are relatively less productive, and require much irrigation and other agricultural inputs for

satisfactory crop yields.

Land. Generally the productivity of land in Bangladesh is high and current production of

crops can be increased to a large extent with intensive cultivation in terms of uses of land with

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the help of a range of modern farming inputs. The total cropped area of Bangladesh is 35.13

million acres which are divided into various categories - single cropped double cropped, triple

cropped, current fellow and culturable waste (BBS, 2005).

Source: Ara and Billah, 2007

Fig 3.6 Cropping intensity of Bangladesh

Fig. 3.6 indicates the nature of cropping intensity in Bangladesh. It can be seen in the map

that although the proportion of double-cropped area is high in the study areas, triple-cropped

area is comparatively low. It indicates that there exists possibilities of agricultural expansion,

and that given the required inputs, the study areas have potentials for developing cropping

system to three-cropped area.

Agro-ecology. Agriculture mostly depends on physical factor like physiography, climate,

soils etc. The study area, with its typical agro-ecological characteristics, double-cropping is

mostly practiced (Fig 3.7). Further, according to the Agro-ecological Zone scene of

Bangladesh the study areas belong to the old Himalayan piedmont plain and Tista floodplain

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(Brammer, 2000) (Fig 3.7). Table 3.5 summarizes the key agro-ecological characteristics of

the Monga-prone areas indicating low organic compounds in soils having negative bearing on

the overall agricultural production.

Source: Brammar, 2000

Fig 3.7 Agro-ecological zones of Bangladesh

Nevertheless, this area can support various types of crops unless affected by the natural

hazards, like, drought, flood etc., and necessary farm inputs are provided as per requirement.

In particular, because of the characteristic soil conditions, supply of water for irrigation is

crucial during the dry seasons, and at the same time, providing job opportunities in both on-

farm as well as off-farm activities for the certain groups of population in the study districts.

According to the Agricultural Land Use map of 1997, most of the study areas are of land use

type: 1, 2 and 4 (i.e., 1 for Rabi crop-B. aus-fallow, 2 for Rabi crop-Aus-T. amon and 4 for

Boro-fallow-T. amon) ( Fig 3.8). Apart from these, the whole region is good for producing a

number of perennial crops or various cash earning tree crops, like, bamboo, betel nut, jack-

fruit, mango etc. and a wide range of trees with Ayurvedic value.

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Source: SRDI, 1997

Fig 3.8 Agricultural land use of Bangladesh

Environment and natural disasters

In view of the physical settings and agro-ecological aspects, the people of the study areas

mostly suffer from four major types of natural disasters. These are: flood, riverbank erosion

and drought, and cold wave. Some other minor environmental damages, like soil erosion,

post-winter dry spell and land degradation are also found in the study areas. Some of the

major issues related to environment and disasters are summarized below.

Floods. Three types of flooding occur in Bangladesh. These are: flash flood, monsoon flood

and coastal or tidal flood. Of these, flash flood is caused by overflowing of hilly rivers of

eastern and northern Bangladesh in April-May and in September-November. The flash flood

of September and October mostly affect the study areas (Fig 3.10). It erodes agricultural land

on riverbanks and damage standing crops, houses, roads, flood embankments, irrigation and

drainage channels.

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Table 3.5 Agro-ecological regions of the study area.

Agro-ecological

regions

Area Soil texture family (%)

Total (sq.

km.)

Total Agro

-Soil( sq km)

Organic

Sandy Loamy Clayey

Old Himalayan

piedmont plain

4008 3740 < 1 10 82 8

Active Tista flood

plain

836 617 - 41 59 -

Tista meander flood

plain

9468 8596 - 6 88 6

Karatoya, Bengali

flood plain

25720 21212 - 8 65 27

Lower Atrai Basin 851 814 - - 16 84

Lower Punarbhaba

flood plain

129 90 - - - 100

Source: BBS, 2004.

Sometime this type of flood greatly affects the human and livestock populations as well as

stock of food and other commodities. Heavy and prolonged rainfall occurring locally or

outside of the country may also result floods along the Tista, Brahmaputra-Jamuna and the

Ganges rivers (Brammer, 2004). In the floodplain areas most vulnerable to floods are the char

land within and along the main river channels especially in the study areas. Some of the

severe incidents of floods affecting the study areas in Northwest Bangladesh may be seen in

Box 3.1.

Box 3.1

Selected Major Flood Events in North West of Bangladesh, 1879-2007

1879 Flooding of the Tista when the change in the course of the Brahmaputra began.

1955 Flood peak of the Jamuna River at Sirajganj in August was 14.22 m. affected upper Jamuna basin.

1988 Catastrophic flood occurred in August-September inundated about 82,000 sq. km. (about 60% of the total area). Rainfall together with synchronization of very high flows of all the three major rivers of the country in only three days aggravated the flood. The flood lasted 15 to 20 days.

1994 Localized flood during August-September along the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River.

1998 Over two-thirds of the total area of the country was flooded, comparable with the catastrophic flood of 1988 so far as the extent of flooding is concerned. A continuation of heavy rainfall within and outside the country, synchronization of peak flows of the major rivers and a very strong back water effect coalesced into a mix that resulted in the worst flood in recent history. The flood lasted for more than two months.

2007 Two spells of flood - in July and September destroying almost entire amon seedling nurseries and paddy fields in Northern Bangladesh

Source: ASB, 2003 and Elahi, 2007

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Source: ASB, 2003

Fig 3.9 Flood affected areas of Bangladesh (1955, 1974, 1988 and 1998)

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The chronology of major floods in Northern Bangladesh during 1879-2007 shows that, this

part faced some of the severe floods of which those in 1955, 1974, 1988, 1998 were quite

devastating ( Fig 3.9). In 2007 there were two phases of floods in the country that affected

the study areas badly.

Source: ASB, 2003

Fig 3.10 Flood categories of Bangladesh

The flooding events do not only inundate vast standing crop fields but also dislocate

transportation and communication system, and the relief operation became difficult. The

situation gets worse for those living in the char areas along the reach of the Brahmaputra-

Jamuna from Rajibpur in the north to Sirajganj downstream.

Drought. Drough is a difficult disaster to deal with. Unlike flood or cyclone, drought does

not arrive dramatically (Brammer, 1999). Drought is slow to onset an event and people tend

to stay on in their habitat till the last moment before abandoning their crop fields or

households. Globally, drought has caused the maximum amount of economic and social

damage and it is called the 'silent killer' in many parts of Africa.

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The drought-prone areas typically include the north and northwest parts of Bangladesh where

the mean annual rainfall and short length of the rainy season impose restrictions on

agricultural production, and where soils have low capacity to store moisture (Fig 3.11)

Excessive withdrawal of ground water is also thought to be as one of the causes for

deterioration of soil condition in this region. According to Brammer (1999) the most drought-

prone areas of Bangladesh are the north western part of the Tista floodplain, the southeastern

part of the Karotoya-Bangali floodplain, the Old Brahmaputra floodplain (e.g. in Narshingdi

districts), the middle Meghna floodplain and the northern and eastern piedmont plains. On the

other hand drought pattern is also show spatial variation during two different season (i.e.

Kharif and Rabi) (Fig 3.12) and (Table 3.6 and 3.7) .

Source: ASB, 2003

Fig 3.11 Drought categories of Bangladesh

During the last 50 years, these parts of Bangladesh suffered 20 times fom drought conditions.

The most important drought affected years were: 1951, 1973, 1975, 1978-79, 1982, 1989 and

1994-95. The 1973-drought was one of the severest in the last century and was also

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responsible for the 1974-local famine in Northern Bangladesh. In 1975-drought, 47 per cent

of the country was affected causing suffering to about 53 per cent of the population (Task

Force Report, 1991; and Adnan.1993). The 1978-79 drought was also severe causing

widespread damage to crops (Box 3.2). But the most persistent drought was of the year 1989

(Kafiluddin, 1991); and so was the one in 1994-95 (Elahi, 2001).

Source: CCC, 2006

Fig 3.12 Drought in Kharif and Rabi seasons in Bangladesh

Box 3.2

Chronology of drought of historical significance In Northwest Bangladesh, 1866 – 1995

1866 Severe drought in Bogra. The rice production of the district was hit hard and the price went up three times its normal levels.

1874 Bogra was affected and the crop failure was much greater. The rainfall was extremely low.

1951 Severe drought in northwest Bangladesh and substantially reduced rice production.

1973 One of the severest in the present century and was responsible for the 1974-famine in northern Bangladesh.

1975 The drought affected 47% of the entire country and caused sufferings to about 53% of the total population.

1978-79 Severe drought caused widespread damage all over the country affecting 42 per cent of the cultivated land and 4 per cent of the population.

1982 Caused widespread damage to rice crop (in the same year flood caused further damage to crop production across the country).

1989 Most of the rivers in northwestern Bangladesh dried up and most districts (mainly, Naogaon, Nawabganj, Thakurgaon and Nilphamari) experienced top-soil deterioration and dust syndrome.

1994-95 This drought was followed by that of 1995-96, regarded as most persistent drought in northwestern Bangladesh, damaged rice and jute crops as well as perennial crops, like bamboo and betel nut.

Source: ASB, 2003.

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Table 3.6 Affected area of Kharif by drought.

Nature of drought Affected area

Very high Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj.

High Dinajpur, Bogra, Kushtia, Jessore, Some parts of Dhaka and Tangail.

Medium Rangpur, Barisal, some parts of Dinajpur, Kushtia and Jessore.

Low Floodplains of the Tista, Brahmaputra and the Meghna.

Source: Iqbal, et. al. 1993.

Table 3.7 Affected area of Rabi and pre-Kharif by drought.

Nature of drought Affected area

Very high Rajshahi, Nawabganj, Chapainawabganj.

High Barendra area, Flood plain of the Meghna.

Medium Madhupur area, Barendra area, Flood plain of the Ganges.

Low medium Tista, Brahmaputra and Ganges floodplains.

Less Surma, Kushiyara, Meghna, Tista, Brahmaputra floodplain areas.

Very less Sylhet, Gopalganj, Khulna .

Source: Iqbal, et. al. 1993.

Elahi (2001) noted that the poorer strata of the population, particularly the small and landless

farmers, were worst affected. It should be noted that there is virtually no disaster mitigation

program in the region or forecasting mechanism for drought so that people are unable to take

any precaution in such hazard events. Further, because of the recurrent nature of the event,

the economic recovery is almost nil for the low-income groups of population - it is even slow

for the higher social groups of farming community.

Agricultural drought risk has been calculated for the study area and presented in Fig 3.13. It

has been revealed from this figure that Gaibanda, Thakurgaon and Panchagarh face high

agricultural drought risk covering 15.68 % of the total area, while 5 districts Bogra, Dinajpur,

Nilphamari, Joypurhat and Sirajgong face moderate drought risk covering 33.15 % of the total

area. Kurigram,

Lalmonirhat, Nawabgong, Pabna, Rajshahi and Rangpur have slight agricultural drought risk

covering highest 35.70 % of the total area, whereas Naogaon and Natore covering 15.47 %

area is free from agricultural drought risk. Meteorological risk map of the study area were

generated for the study area and presented in Fig 3.13. This figure releaved the presence of

very severe meteorological drought risk in Dinajpur, Thakiurgaon and Gaibanda district,

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whereas the slight meteorological drought risks exist in Naogaon and Sirajgong districts

(Murad and Islam, 2011).

The percentage of areas in each district of the north-west region facing combined drought risk

was presented in table 3.8 Sirajgong and Naogaon are two districts free from drought risk.

Slight and moderate risk areas encompass 22.71% and 29.72% of total geographical area.

Severe and very severe risk prevails in nearly 21.29% and 9.42% of the area which comprises

of districts that are major producers of food grains as well as different vegetable. Therefore a

stress has to be given more on these districts while drought management plans are prepared.

Source: Murad and Islam, 2011

Fig 3.13 Agricultural drought risk and meteorological drought risk areas in North West region

Table 3.8: Area facing both agricultural and meteorological drought risks

Sl.

No.

Drought Risk No. of

Districts Name of Districts

Area

(km²) % of Area

1 No risk 2 Sirajgong, Naogaon 5437.34

16.86

2 Slight risk 4 Kurigram, Nawabgong,

Bogra, Joypurhat

7322.45 22.71

3 Moderate risk 5

Rangpur, Rajshahi,

Pabna, Natore,

Lalmonirhat

9581.58 29.72

4 Severe risk 3 Dinajpur, Nilphamari,

Gaibanda

6867.32 21.29

5 Very Severe risk 2 Panchagarh, Thakurgaon 3036.31 9.42

Total 16 32245 100%


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Final drought risk map, which has been obtained by integrating the risk maps generated from

agriculture and meteorological drought. Fig 3.14 shows the percentage area affected by the

combined risk.


Fig 3.14 Combined drought risk areas in Northwest region

Riverbank erosion. Riverbank erosion occurs most rapidly during the flood season, but bank

slumping can continue throughout the dry season in places where rapid river flow continues to

undermine riverbank (Elahi and Rogge, 1990; Brammer, 1999). However, due to expansion of

human settlements and agricultural activities in the flood plain, bank erosion causes a great

deal of social and economic hardship. In Bangladesh, there are 250 rivers with 24000 km of

bank line, of which 1200 km. are regularly erosion-prone. About 283 towns, bazar (markets)

and other rural growth-centers have been identified as erosion-hit points, while 10 areas,

namely Kurigram, Gaibandha, Gangachara and Haragachh, Sirajganj, Munshiganj, Shariatpur,

Madaripur, Bogra and Chandpur suffer annual devastation due to river erosion. Bank erosion

is also very serious in the char land within and adjoining the Tista and the Brahmaputra-

Jamuna rivers (Fig.3.15).

Study area Kurigram and Gaibandha are typically located along the Tista and the

Brahmaputra-Jamuna rivers .These are also regularly affected by bank erosion (Elahi and

Rogge, 1990; Elahi, et. al. 1991). Such areas were earlier marginal lands but now being

occupied because of increasing population pressure and scarcity of land

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Source: ASB, 2003 and Elahi & Nazem, 1989

Fig 3.15 Riverbank erosion affected areas of Bangladesh and Erosion-prone Upazilas of Bangladesh

The socioeconomic implication of riverbank erosion is serious in the study areas, especially in

the char lands. The riverbank erosion not only devours crops but also the land itself. This may

deprive cultivators of their homes and their basic means of livelihood. Very often it causes

widespread population displacement in the study areas and also triggers off short and long

term migration.

General Socioeconomic Conditions

Socioeconomic condition includes a number of social and economic characteristics, like,

population, household structure, activity rate, occupation, poverty level, nutrition status, land

holding pattern etc. When analyzed these characteristics at district level of Bangladesh, the

study areas stands out as a unique unit in the country.

Population. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries of the world with

around 881 people living in a square kilometer of land (BBS, 2001). The annual rate of

population growth of population is 1.47 per cent (BBS, 2005). In the present case, i.e. the

greater Rangpur, about 7.30 per cent or about 9.08 million of the total population of the

country live (BBS, 2005). Table 3.9 shows the key geo-demographic characteristics of the

districts of Northwest vis-à-vis Bangladesh. It is seen that the study area have fairly high

population density and most have higher densities than the national average (Table 3.9 and

Fig 3.16).

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Labor force and occupation. In the study areas the proportion of agricultural labor

households is higher (60 to 70 %) than the national average (Fig 3.17). The agricultural labor

force (ALF) is also higher (61.79%) than the national average, while that of non-agricultural

(NALF), with only 25.96 per cent is much lower than the national average (Fig 3.16). The

same is found in case of the 'others' categories too (Fig 3.18). Thus the occupational pattern

indicates that there is little impact of non-agricultural activities in the area (Table 3.9). Thus

the excessive dependency on agricultural activities is due mainly to limitations in employment

diversification as manifested in the low level of NALF. On the other hand, the activity rate,

portraying an overall labor force situation, is relatively high in most districts of the study

areas than the national average of 48.10 per cent (Fig 3.18 and Table 3.9). However, the

occupational structure is predominantly non-farm and informal in nature. This situation can

be seen best reflected in the occupational structure of households in Gaibandha, a typical

flood prone district in Northwest region of Bangladesh (Table 3.10).

Source: Made by author, 2010

Fig 3.16 Population density of Bangladesh, 2001 and age structure of Bangladesh, 1991.

Table 3.9 Key geo-demographic characteristics of some districts of North West region, 1991-

2000.

Name of the indicators Lalmonirhat Kurigram Gaibandha Rangpur Nilphamari Bangladesh

(Average)

Population Density (per

Sq km)

977 768 890 988 1067 881

Activity Rate(%) 35.6 51.8 52.8 49.9 51.9 48.10

Rural population(%) 89.0 85.9 92.94 83.29 86.24 83.85

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Urban population(%) 10.9 14.0 7.05 16.7 13.7 15.7

Agriculture labor

force(%)

77.5 77.0 74.0 69.3 71.8 61.7

Non-agriculture labor

force(%)

16.8 15.3 18.3 23.4 19.5 25.9

'Others' labor force(%) 5.5 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.2 10.1

Poverty level (HPI) 50.1 50.1 50.1 50.1 50.1 42.7

Landlessness (%) 39.0 40.0 40.0 45.0 42.0 25.5

Calorie Intake(d/p/p) 2210.0 2210.0 2210.0 2210.0 2210.0 2234.0

Dependency Ratio(%). 56.6 59.2 59.0 55.2 55.5 53.7

Source: BBS (1991, 1994, 1994a, 1997, 1999, 2001).


Fig 3.17 Agricultural labor force of Bangladesh and Non- Agricultural labor force of Bangladesh, 1991

Table 3.10 Main occupation of rural households in Gaibandha.

Chief occupation No. of households Percentage

Farming 5 10.0

Day labor 24 48.0

Rickshaw puller 5 10.0

Fisherman 3 6.0

Self employed 6 12.0

Others 7 14.0

Total : 50 100.00

Source: Razzaque et. al. 2006.

Dependency ratio. The study areas have higher dependency ratio in comparison to the

national average (Table 3.9 and Fig 3.19). This indicates that the areas have relatively higher

proportion of children and aged population. One of the important reasons of this situation is

the out-migration of adult population in search of works outside, mainly to the urban areas,

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thereby, inflating the proportions children and aged.


Fig 3.18 Labor force in 'others' category and Activity rate of Bangladesh, 1991


Fig 3.19 Dependency ratio and Rural and urban population of Bangladesh, 1991

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Rural-urban differentials. In Bangladesh, differentials by residential status are a common

scenario for most districts, but such differentials are more pronounced in the study areas. The

Fig 3.19 shows that the proportion of rural population is overwhelmingly higher than that of

urban in such areas than in most other parts of Bangladesh. It is also seen in Table 3.9 that

the proportion of rural population is higher than national average and that of urban is much

lower in the selected districts. This may be deemed a reflection of the overall lack of

development of non-farm activities in these districts (Fig 3.20 and Fig 3.21).


Fig 3.20 Regional variations of development and regional variations of transport network of

Bangladesh, 1998

Poverty. According to the Human Poverty Index (HPI) of 2003, the study areas have a higher

poverty syndrome than other areas of Bangladesh. While the national average HPI is 42.7, the

selected study districts have more than 50 HPI (Table 3.9 and Fig 3.22). It means that the

study areas are more poverty ridden than other parts of Bangladesh.

Calorie intake. According to the spatial distribution of the calorie intake of Bangladesh as

depicted in Fig 3.22 the selected study districts belong to the level of medium category. It is

also found from table 3.9 that the study areas have lower calorie intake pattern than that of

national average reflecting that the malnutrition condition is quite pervasive in the Monga-

prone areas.

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Fig 3.21 Distribution of industrial establishments and total person engaged in industrial sector of

Bangladesh, 1991


Fig 3.22 Poverty level of Bangladesh, 1995 and calorie intake of Bangladesh, 1997

Land ownership. Land holding is mostly unevenly distributed in the study areas. As may be

seen in Fig 3.23 the proportion of land per household is quite low in the selected study

districts compared to other parts of Bangladesh. Likewise, the proportion of the landless is

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very high in study areas (Fig 3.23). This is also summarized in Table 3.9 where it is seen in

that the districts of Northwest region have higher percentage of landlessness (over 40 %) than

the official figure of national average (25.5 %).


Fig 3.23 Landlessness of Bangladesh, 1991 and Households by agricultural land ownership of

Bangladesh, 2001.


The climate change scenario in overall Bangladesh highlighted that the country will more

prone to climate change in the future. It is clear that the country will be highly susceptible to:

(a) increased flooding, both in terms of extent and frequency; (b) increased moisture stress

during dry periods leading to increased drought susceptibility in terms of both intensity and

frequency; and (c) increased salinity intrusion during the low flow conditions. The impacts

have been observed that summers are becoming hotter, monsoon irregular, untimely rainfall,

heavy rainfall over short period causing water logging and landslides, very little rainfall in dry

period, increased river flow and inundation during monsoon, increased frequency, intensity

and recurrence of floods, crop damage due to flash floods and monsoon floods, crop failure

due to drought, prolonged cold spell, salinity intrusion along the coast leading to scarcity of

potable water and redundancy of prevailing crop practices, coastal erosion, riverbank erosion,

deaths due to extreme heat and extreme cold, increasing mortality, morbidity, prevalence and

outbreak of dengue, malaria, cholera and diarrhea, etc. The climate change in Bangladesh

creates insecurities for food, water, life, property, settlement, livelihood assets and others.

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Climatic impacts reduce securities directly and indirectly. It determined the climate change

hotspots in Bangladesh based on the hazard exposures, impact on biodiversity and

conservation of marine and coastal resources, impact on life, livelihood and wellbeing of

inhabitants of the areas. The degree of vulnerability of human health, water, agriculture and

commercial forestry sector is also considered in identifying hotspots. It describes the

adaptation and mitigation procedures of climate change and its present status in Bangladesh..

The general environmental conditions of the Northwest region is describing according to the

physical conditions, and socio-economic conditions. These provide a generalized picture

having bearing on human habitat and economy of the study area in Northwest Bangladesh.

Here physical condition is considering physiography, river system, climate, Soil, land and

land use pattern, agro-ecology, environment and natural disaster (i.e. Flood, river bank

erosion, drought, and cold wave). The socio-economic condition covers population, age

structure, labor force and occupation, dependency ratio, rural and urban differentials, poverty,

calorie intake, land ownership status in the selected study areas in Northwest region. It will

help to understand the correlation of physical and socio-economic condition of the study area

with climate change incidents. The empirical studies on the study area meaningfully indicated

both physical and social condition of the study area is vulnerable for the community and

climate change events will increase such vulnerability more. Apart from this information it

will also help to identify the local capacity of the study are to combat climate change in near

future.

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THE WAYS AND MEANS O F ADAPTING AND MITIGATING CLIMATE C HANGE VULNERABILITY OF NORTHWEST REGION

Introduction

In terms of the impact of climate change, few places in the world will experience the range of

effects and the severity of changes that will occur in Bangladesh. These global warming-

induced changes will almost all have negative impacts on the population of Bangladesh; a

country that already has around half of its citizens living below the poverty line. Forced

migration threatens to be a major consequence. According to the previous chapter (i.e. chapter

2 and 3), it is clear that the proposed study area, Northwest region has the significant impact

of climate change. But all those are mainly collected from the secondary sources. On the basis

of the primary sources, this chapter deals with the evidence of climate change considering

four communities (i.e. river bank erosion prone community, drought prone community, cold

wave prone community and flood prone community). As it is mentioned earlier that data was

collected through different level, individual, household, local partner, GO/NGO etc. by using

CVCA methodology. The ways and means of adaptation and mitigation of climate change in

Northwest region of Bangladesh is identified by them. Before analyzing the ways of

adaptation they discuss climate change impacts in different sectors (i.e. agriculture, fisheries,

wetlands, water, food security, education, gender, human health and working capacity, assets,

climate change forecast). They predict the impact of climate change in future in their locality

also. Local people explore important livelihood resources, its types, availability and access for

their coping strategies in their locality. These means and ways of adapting and mitigating

climate change option is purely identified by them, local people think that these are the best

solutions for climate change adaptation and they are able to use such options without any

difficulties. The following sections are elaborately discussed their perception about climate

change and its adaption and mitigation for four different vulnerable community. Some case

studies (see appendix 4) is taken from the community people to understand the climate change

vulnerability and their individual strategies to adapt with the climate change events.

Chapter 3

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Evidence of Climate Change in Northwest Region

The evidence of climate change in four different community (river bank erosion prone,

drought prone, cold wave prone and flood prone) in Northwest region is significantly clear,

such as, increase temperature, changing the duration of season, absence of six seasons, late

rainy season, high temperature, decreasing the water flow in rivers, originating more char

lands in the river, irregular rainfall, water table declined, short duration of winter, prolong

flood, late flood, stormy wind and occurring storm, decreasing the rate of rainfall, increasing

the intensity of cold wave and remaining it for long time, increasing the rate of riverbank

erosion, decrease of crop production, remaining fog for long time, occurring untimed rainfall

etc. Some of them are mentioned that evidence is not clear up to two decade and climate

change and disaster seemed mixed version.

Fig 5.1 Percentage of people observing climate change evidence in their locality

There is no systematic way to come seasons and differentiate among six different season is

very difficult. Natural characteristics of six different seasons are not visible in their locality at

present. Fig 5.1 indicated that 75 percent people observed climate change incidents in

riverbank erosion prone community. In drought prone community and cold wave prone

community, 82 percent people observed climate change incidents in their locality while 77

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percent people observed climate change events in flood prone community. According to the

response of no climate change events 20 present people did not argue about climate change in

kurigram districts, it ranked highest among the three other communities. The number of no

comments about climate change incidents is not that much fluctuated because only 5 to 7

percent people say nothing about it.

Impact of Recent Climate Change Events in Northwest Region

The local people observed the recent climate change events by using their local indigenous

knowledge and locally inherited perception. They detected the rainy season differences which

makes a huge impact on agriculture, livestock and fisheries. Crop production is decreasing

but comparatively insecticide and fertilizer using more because people want to produce more

crops. It causes losing of soil fertility. Natural irrigation system has been interrupted as a large

scale. Rainfall pattern is very low in cultivation season but excessive rainfall in lean season.

All of the respondents united in one point that they observed lack of rainfall when needed.

Kurigram district is recorded for highest number of river bank erosion incident (74 percent

people claim river bank erosion as a recent climate change event) (Fig 5.2). It causes many

adverse effects such as landlessness; increasing char land, increasing sand in soil, land slide

etc. Settlement and local market damaged by the river bank erosion. People are losing their

land resources, assets, home and other resources such as cattle, trees etc. People are tending to

migrate from their origin when they lose everything. Sedimentation is increasing in the river it

hampered the water ways transportation. Another problem is here flood as it is observed from

fig 5.2 18 percent people indicated it as one of the major climate change event. Some of them

mentioned about loss of biodiversity which affects the entire ecosystem. Extinction of habitat

is observing in recent time. They also argued cold season is not as cold as they noted before.

Nilphamari district detected less wheat production and lack of favorable weather for rice

production in last year, 2010. Agricultural production is reducing 10% than that of before.

Winter season is more acute this year than any time. Summer is more prolonged and so hot

last year. Observed acute drought symptom last year in many areas. During drought season

because of scarcity of water people cannot plough their lands. Intensity of drought is rising in

recent time. High temperature and irregular rainfall perceived. Seasonal change is not visible

as before. Frequently flood occurred and rainy season is delaying. Irrigation problem is rising

because of water scarcity in dry season. On the other hand due to over rainfall somewhere

people are not able to cultivate their field. Agricultural land is damaged due to flood in

somewhere. Cannel become waterless last few years. Observing more insects in the crop land

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and people are supposed to use more insecticides in their agricultural land. Loosing fertility of

soils and the normal growth of trees is hampered. More sand presents in the soil and

originating more char lands in the river. Because of high temperature people suffers from

various diseases. Deficiency of livestock food in noticed. Fruits and fisheries production is

decreasing. Nilphamari district is recorded for highest number of drought incident (74 percent

people claim drought as a recent climate change event) (Fig 5.2). It causes many adverse

effects such as water scarcity, irrigation problem etc.

Fig 5.2 Percentage of people observing recent climate change incident in Northwest region

The local people of Panchagarh district detected that excessive rainfall is occurred and it

damaging crop and vegetation production. On the other hand in dry season crop is naturally

burning by excessive heat. They mentioned that their areas is little bit higher than the adjacent

area of Northwest region, for this Boro crop could not be produced more because of such

high land and sandy soil. This makes also difficulties to collect drinking water from

underground. Sometime rainy season comes late and temperature is increasing. Various health

hazards are showing especially pneumonia. Livestock is affected at a large scale by attacking

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many diseases. Deforestation is happening frequently. The fertility of land is reducing day by

day. As local people observed the extreme climate change event in their locality is bitter cold

wave in winter season (90 percent people claim cold wave as a recent climate change event)

(Fig 5.2). Sometimes excessive cold causes the death of the elderly people. At the time of

such a cold local people are not willing to work in anywhere. Such cold also causes the death

of trees. Only 10 percent people mentioned about drought. It is very interesting that no one

indicated about flood, as it is highland they noted earlier and indicated their area as a flood

free zone. There is no river bank erosion occurrence in their locality.

Frequently flood occurred in Nilphamary districts; it causes crop failure and less productivity.

A seasonal crop (lau, kumra, boro rice, kalizira, nut, onion) is damaging. It is also damaging

seeds and agricultural land. Local people give an example that last year IRRI production

damaged due to flood area which covered 500 hector. Flood floats home and other assets and

people are taking shelter at retreat center in their locality. People are losing many trees,

livestock and their household assets. Sometimes it is threatening for human live and

livelihood. Flood impacted destructively on infrastructure. Livestock mortality rate is

aggregating and increasing bacteria due to irregular rainfall which is harmful for livestock.

Acute food scarcity is happening for livestock and reproduction season for livestock is

discontinuing. Landlessness is increasing due to river bank erosion and as result extreme

poverty arose. People are regularly migrated from the area. Intensity of cold wave is swelling.

Sometimes tornado happening. Irregular rainfall pattern is observing but sometimes huge

rainfall is dropping. People are losing their disease resistant capacity and it causes harmful

impact on human health. Gaibandha district is recorded for highest number of flood incident

(80 percent people claim frequent flood as a recent climate change event) (Fig 5.2). Another

problem is here river bank erosion, 12 percent people indicated it another major climate

change event in their area. Some of them mentioned about cold wave (5 percent).Very few

people argue with drought (only 3 percent).

The Means and Ways of Adapting and Mitigating Climate Change in Northwest

Region

The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in northwest region are

discussed according to different sector. Who will do what and how it will do by the local

government and community is also discusses. Lastly, in this section it is analyzed that how

the process will start for achieving such means and ways to adapt and mitigate climate change

in Northwest region.

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Agriculture

Agricultural production loss is obvious when flood occurred. It flooded all cultivating lands.

Flood damaged agriculture crops every year and it damaged seed plots. People observing

decreased possibility of more production for discontinued season. Flood is reducing

production of Aman, Boro and other alternative crops (i.e. maze, corn, high breed seed,

BINA-7, BR-33). Somewhere sandy soil does not support crops cultivation. There are a less

irrigation facilities in drought period. The people, who have shallow machine, they are only

able to plough .Over all expenses of cultivation has been increased, due to artificial irrigation.

Many crops have expelled to cultivate for this reason. On the other hand, Agricultural sector

is greatly hampered because of sand. It is not possible to cultivate in such lands because sandy

soil is not eligible for cropping. Sometimes soil is losing its fertility. People are using more

fertilizer due to lack of proper siltation. Sometimes agricultural production is destroyed by

stormy wind. Late rainfall damaged agricultural production. Amon and jute get hindered in

last year. After flood the lands are unable to cultivate because of lack of silt while they found

sand on their agricultural lands. Excessive cold wave usually causes harm for crop, for this

agricultural production is damaging. Another problem is excessive fog to cultivate crops. It is

not possible to produce crops within the normal time frame. For cold wave, crops quality is

hampering, for example potato leaf becoming pale and the total production is reduced. Winter

is very prolonged, growing fruits and vegetable is delaying and producing less than that of

before. Crop is also attacking by various viruses, worms and other insects. Harmful worms

are increasing for excessive frog. On the other hand the worms which are useful for soil and

production are becoming less. Potatoes are frequently attacking by the worm. Vegetable

production is reducing due to cold wave. Soil is being acidic; sometimes it is full of sand and

not eligible for cropping. Foods are getting poisonous due to use more insecticide in the

agricultural field. There is lots of barren land and cultivation is not possible without irrigation

in dry season.

Table 5.1 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in agricultural

sector

Sectors The means and

ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change

Who will do? How it will do? Process

Agriculture Crop variety to

produce more

and control

production loss

due to climate

change

Government will

take initiative to

invent such kind of

crop variety,

disaster resilient

crop, modified high

yielding variety

and short duration

variety of rice and

other crops.

GO/NGO

collaboration will

promote such kind of

crops to field level

Introduce and

cultivate disaster

resilient crop.

Introduce especial

All necessary

support will

come from local

government

to the local

farmers and

they will give

the feedback of

its productivity

and future

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insurance scheme for

the poor farmers due

to crop failure /

production losses for

climate change

incidents.

possibilities in

their areas

Using Indigenous

knowledge to

combat climate

change in

agriculture sector

Local

Community/elderly

people/experienced

farmers

Local community

will build capacity

by using their

indigenous

knowledge to

combat climate

change in agricultural

sector

GO/NGO will

help to spread

such kind of

knowledge and

encourage

farmers to

cultivate

traditional

species of rice

and other crops

which are

generally more

resilient due to

climate change.

Enhance

irrigation

facilities

Government will

take initiative to

enhance

irrigational

facilities in entire

Northwest region

Government should

give more research

allocation for

Advancement of

irrigation

technology

Give more emphasis

on flexibility of

irrigation in both dry

and wet season.

Ensure proper power

supply for irrigation

when needed. Use

Electric pump if

necessary

Advancement of

irrigation technology.

Digging more cannel

to use river water for

irrigation purpose

Local

community will

ensured by the

local

government that

irrigation would

be continued

for them

Local people

will give more

intention to

‗Rabi seasons‘

crop while more

water in needed

for cultivation.

GO/NGO will

trained them

about advance

irrigation

technology

Agricultural

diversification

Government will

find out the

possibilities of

agricultural

diversification in

entire Northwest

region

Both GO/NGO will

promote the

information and

possible production

outcome of

diversified crop

throughout the year.

It will be start

by the local

community by

changing

cropping

pattern, for

example

promote fruit

like water

melon and rock

melon

cultivation in

sandy soil in the

char areas of

Northwest

region

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Give agricultural

information

Government will

be responsible to

give agricultural

information

Give necessary

help and

information on

agriculture from

both GO/NGO

Ensure seed

availability

Ensure supply of

fertilizer, pesticide

and insecticide

Give information to

save crop loss due to

climate change

events

Give agricultural

training

Ensure close

observation incase of

any emergency due to

climate change

Local farmers

will informed

directly from

the local

government of

any issue of

agriculture

when needed

Preserve soil

condition and

fertility

Both GO/NGO Both GO and NGO

will monitor the soil

condition

Maintain a database

of local soil for every

year that they can

detect the change

Some easy

solution should

give to farmers

directly to

protect soil(i.e.

decreasing

acidity from the

soil by using

calcium

carbonate)

Government

should provide

easy handling

instruments (

i.e. Ph meter) to

farmer so they

can measure the

soil condition

by their own in

field level.

Later they can

discuss about its

solution

Fisheries

During rainy season there is a plenty of fish but the amount of fishes is decreasing day by day

in the river. Due to using fertilizer and pesticides local fish species is found missing in many

areas. Fish harvesting hampered due to low rainfall and sometimes fish cultivation is

interrupted because of flash flood. There is no possibility of the fish culture permanently at

the char areas. People are depending on river for fishing. But at present scarcity of fish in the

river is detecting. During rainy season there is a plenty of fishes but lack of fishes is observed

in dry season. Culture fisheries is damaging by flood every year. There is no cultivation of

fisheries in somewhere. Fishes are frequently migrated during flood season. Fishes are

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attacking by various diseases when temperature is decreasing with a very low rate. Farmers

are using huge amount of pesticides in their field and this causes devastating impact on

fisheries. There is less scope of fisheries in such a drought prone district, Nilphamari. Most of

the areas are sandy that ponds are not able to hold enough/ sufficient water for fishing. Local

species of fish is not seen that much. Specific type of fish can harvest in rice field (see

appendix 2).

Table 5.2 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in fisheries

sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Fisheries

Proper planning

for fishing

Proper treatment

and planning

needed for fishery.

Government will

take initiative for

fishery planning in

region context.

Fishing should be

banned at breeding

season.

Small fish should not

be caught.

Control and

maintain water

flow in the

river.

Ponds and other

wetlands should

be ready for the

whole year for

fishing.

Community

people will

have the access

to use pond and

such kinds of

wetlands for

fishing

Introduce new

variety

Initiative should be

come from the

government but

need assessment

will be done by the

local community

with the help of

government and

NGO

Before introduce any

new variety the

Government

authority (i.e.

Department of

Fisheries and

Livestock ) will test

its impact on local

ecosystem and

sustainability in the

local environment

Emphasis should be

given on the quick

growing fish species

Introduce disaster

resilient fish species

Local people

will practice the

new variety but

they must

maintain the

distinction of

local species

with the new

one

Introduce

commercial

fishing

Both GO/NGO or

any other local

organization

Tista barrage should

be used for fish

culture and fishing

Training should be

given to local poor

for commercial

fishing

It will be make

sure by the

local

community that

they are using

each and every

wetlands for

fishing as

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commercial

purpose

Dig more ponds

for fishing

Local people It will be done by

themselves and with

the help of

community people

Harvest the

both local and

foreign species

of fish in the

pond

Protect water

pollution and

conserve aquatic

bio-diversity

GO, NGO and

local community

Ensure the optimum

use of insecticide,

pesticides in

agricultural land

Build

awareness

among the

community for

optimum use of

insecticide,

pesticides to

protect water

pollution

New technology

for fishing

Initiative should be

come from the

government, more

emphasis should be

given on fisheries

research using new

technology

High technology for

fishing will promote

by the GO/NGO to

the local community

to preserve water in

the wetlands even in

extreme dry season.

There is a possible

option for fishing in

the pond by the

plastic coating

Casing fishing in

flooding time

Community

people will start

practice such

technology in

their locality

Wetlands

As climate change impacts for wetlands that those are getting dry in summer. Some of them

are abolishing due to river bank erosion or sometimes it filled with sand. People consider

river is the only wetland and water flow is decreasing in the river in recent time during

summer. Other swamp is also filled with sand. Pond is the only man made wetland and dried

up in winter season. There is a possibility to use pond water for irrigation during dry season.

At the time of winter when extreme cold wave occurred the wetlands water becoming very

cold.

Table 5.3 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in wetland

sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Wetlands

Maintain wet lands

considering erratic

rainfall and

temperature

Both GO/NGO

and local

community

Proper maintenance

of the existing

Wetlands

Initiative will be

started by the

local people to

maintain but

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pattern

Natural flow should

be maintain for food

chain in a given wet

land water ecosystem

GO/NGO will

give support

Protect wetland

from sand

Local community

and other local

organization

Wetland should be

saved from filled

with sand

Local people will

monitor it and

save the wetland

from sand by

their own. Some

of the local

organization can

help them to do it

also

Proper utilization

of wetlands

GO and local

community

Emphasis should be

given on irrigation

for proper utilization

of the wet land.

Local people can

use such wetlands

for irrigation

when needed

Water

Underground water table declines in dry season and arsenic contamination is found in

underground water in somewhere. Water table declined due to decreasing river flow;

sometimes it appeared below 50 meter. Shallow tube well are available at the locality but

deep tube well did not work at all because underground water table going down in recent

time. Acute irrigation problem occurred because of water scarcity. Shallow tube well cannot

reach at water table in dry season. Shallow tube wells are not support the local people for

drinking water. People are replacing shallow tube well to deep tube well. Great water scarcity

rises in dry season. The erratic rainfall pattern is also making disturb for pure drinking water.

In the time of flood people had to face many problem of drinking water. That time they do not

get fresh water and inland water resource getting contaminated due to flood. River water is

being contaminated due to flood. There is present poor sanitation and crisis of fresh drinking

water is usual thing in flood season. One deep tube well is considered for ten household in the

flood prone community. Drinking water source is also contaminated in flood season because

sometimes tube well is also flooded.

Table 5.4 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in water

sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Water

International Co-

corporation for

water and river

management

Urgently need

international co-

operation (i.e. India

vs. Bangladesh) for

proper water

managements.

Only government

will be responsible

for that

Advancement of the

political influence

and more agreements

on water treaty and

related things to

ensure proper river

and cannel

management

Government

should

implement

especial policy

for management

the river

Continuous

flow of water is

needed all over

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the year

Possibilities of

rainwater

harvesting

Government will

plan for rain water

harvesting at

massive scale

Improvement of the

rainwater harvesting

concept

Implement planning

for monitoring such

option

Promote technology

for storing rainwater

that could be used for

domestic and

agriculture purpose

More research

is needed to

justify the

possibilities of

rainwater

harvesting at

regional basis

of North west

Make sure that

local people

will accept such

possibilities and

beneficiaries

will be measure

by them.

Think of pure and

safe drinking

water

GO/NGO and local

people

Setting tube well on

high land

Set more deep tube

well for ensure

drinking water

Local people

will be

accountable for

pure and safe

drinking water

GO will give

purification

devices and safe

drinking water

when needed in

emergency

period

Food security

Food security is not ensured all the year round for different level of people. Agricultural

production has been decreased comparatively as they detected in their locality, so food

security is not ensured properly. Market management and distribution of food system is

corrupted somewhere. Poor people do not have access to buy food in lean season. Many of

them losing their land resource by river erosion and at present they are not able to produce

their own food by using their own land. Particularly in rainy season food insecurity occurred

at a large scale. Sometime flood damaged crop production. Poor people are severely affected

by food insecurity when flood occurred. Some of them are migrated from the area to earn

something to ensure food security. Sending money by the migrated people for the remaining

family members at char areas is common thing. In some cases people are lending loan with

high interest to buy food. Though some of the areas of Northwest region are considered as a

food surplus area but food security is still questionable here. The cause behind on this is

unemployment or less scope of income generation in this region. There is good sign observed

in panchaghar that less people are landless and they are able to cultivate their own lands. The

scope of employment diversification is very narrow. At the time of inadequacy people are

bound to sell livestock, land resource, trees to buy food. During acute cold wave it is very

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difficult to survive that people are not willing to earn and are not able to buy food. Due to

flood sometimes they are not capable to store their production and in drought period it is

impossible to cultivate their land because of scarcity of sufficient water in some areas

Table 5.5 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in food

security sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Food

Security

More

Agricultural

production

GO/NGO and local

people.

Agricultural

production should be

maximum cost

effective

Alternative cropping

could minimize the

food security

problem

Giving subsidy for

more food production

(subsidy on fertilizer,

irrigation, seed etc)

Homestead gardening

Local people

will practice

high yielding

varieties and

alternative

cropping

pattern

In-depth

research is

needed to assess

the possibilities

of alternative

crops and

proper land

utilization

especially for

agriculture in

Northwest

region

Local people

will practice the

option of

homestead

gardening

Food distribution

and storing

Government should

monitor the total

system of food

production,

distribution and

marketing

Need absolute Co-

operation between

GO/NGO for

implement various

planning on food and

food security

100 days activities of

the government for

the ultra-poor can

ensure food security

temporarily

Others initiative and

program on food

security of the

government can help

the poor

Ensure proper

distribution of

food at local

level

Storing at

household level

if possible

Avoid storing

more food for

gaining more

profit

Ensure

transparency on

food market

management

Employment

diversification

Both GO/NGO Employment

generation

Need employment

diversification.

Spread

diversified

employment

option with a

minimum wage

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of rate all over

the Northwest

region for

landless and

extreme poor

that they can

buy food

Thinking of

alternative option

Both GO and NGO

Seasonal/ permanent

migration.

Give micro-credit or

take loan from

GO/NGO

Need extension of the

concept ‗Dhan’ bank

and implement it

Local people

can think of

migration to

earn money to

where is access

of work or any

other

Take micro-

credit or loan

from GO/NGO

to generate

income

Assess the

concept of

‗Dhan‘ bank at

local level

Statistics on Food

security

Government should

take initiate to take

census on poverty,

food security and

any other related

issue in Northwest

region

Need absolute

statistics on food

insecurity scenario

and affected people

Government

will start it as a

regional basis

Education

As observed from the study area that literacy rate is not good at the study area (see chapter 3).

There is a lack of academic institution in their locality. School and colleges has been closed

during various disaster periods. Flood is greatly hampered children education but people

claim that government is not concern about it. Schools are also flooded. People said that how

it could be possible for them to send their children to school when flood occurred and it

flooded their home, roads and other networks. People described that climate change indirectly

affected their education as they mainly concern when various disasters occurred and thus

those makes devastating impact on their transport facilities. For this reason sometimes many

families are not interested to send their children to the schools. Another cause is school are

situated far from their inhabitant area and that‘s why children are not willing to go. There is a

lack of skilled teacher in the schools. Another socio-economic reason is associated that due to

scarcity of cash in some family, many of them leave their schools forever. Some of the family

involved their little children in the irrigation activities during the dry season.

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Table 5.6 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in education

sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Education

Vocational

training

Both GO/NGO

Implement vocational

education rather than

the general one

Set vocational

education

center in the

locality

Include climate

change topics in

education

Government will

take initiative to

include climate

change topic in

National

curriculum

Modify syllabus and

include climate

change related topic

at secondary and

primary level.

Build up

awareness on

climate change

adaptation and

mitigation by

the national

curriculum

Promote

Education

considering

Climate Change

Both GO/NGO Set up new school by

thinking of the

distance that children

can easily go by foot

Establish more

primary and

secondary school in

this region and

char/remote lands.

Giving warm cloths

to the poor children

that they can go to

their school at early

morning

Road must be

higher than

flood line and

distance must

be consider that

little children

Can go to their

school even in

the extreme

climatic

condition

Gender

At the time of river bank erosion/flood female are more suffered than male. Female are

suffered from excessive malnutrition. Female are facing health disaster at the time of

maternity and many other diseases are also faced by women. Sometimes males are migrated

to earn somewhere but females are still remaining with their children and other elderly people

of her family. This makes a severe uncertainty for them to maintain the whole family when

extreme climate change incidents are occurred. Living and cooking food for their family

became quite impossible for them. Female faced various social problems also. Maternity

problem became acute sometime though there is no medical support in the vulnerable area.

Both mother and new born baby go through a severe crisis and in some cases they died.

There are lots of anthropogenic issues for gender discrimination in this area such as males are

less productive and idle than female. Males are not willing to take part in the economic

activities rather they are interested to take rest for the whole day. Male create physical and

mental pressure on women because of poverty. Early marriage and dowry system is

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increasing as a result in the study area. There is no implementation of family planning in char

areas in Northwest region. There are lots of anthropogenic issues and socio-economic causes

of early marriage in the locality, and it appeared one of the main problems for women and

young girls. Marriage conducts within relatives and neighbors. Parents are thinking that if this

year no flood occurred and if they did not lose anything, this was the best time to get marry

their daughter, otherwise next year it would be impossible because they might not have

enough saving to do it. They never think the age of their daughter, only think the natural

uncertainty. In the study area in one case it is found that a little girl got married age of nine

with her cousin age of seventeen only. Both male and female got early marriage. From the

parent‘s side of son they said that they could easily take a bride for their son by twenty

thousand taka only. They think that it is one of the best ways of earning something in lean

period. Sometimes such marry happening with a high intelligence that no one knows what

they exchange with each other. There is presents of extreme poverty and lack of social

insecurity in the char areas. Very often husband are leaving their children and wife due to

migration. Women and children are the worst suffers due to flood and other natural disaster.

Especially in Panchagarh districts old people and children are the worst sufferer due to

extreme cold wave in recent time. There are many unemployed women found in the drought

prone community.

Table 5.7 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in gender

sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Gender

Protect gender

violence due to

climate change

Both GO and NGO

Protected early

marriage

dowry and other

social crisis

Raise

awareness and

give counseling

among local

people

Gender vs. health

issues in

diversified

climatic

conditions

Government

should take

initiatives to

provide medical

support for women

Policy implication for

emergency health

condition in disaster

time especially for

the women and more

emphasis on

maternity health

in disaster period

Emphasis

should be given

for the left

behind women,

children, and

elderly people

Implement the

concept of

‗Community

Clinic‘ or

‗Mobile

Medical‘ center

in the remote

area

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Special support

from GO/NGO in

emergency period

Both GO and NGO Ensure co-ordination

between GO/NGO

for support left

behind women in the

more vulnerable

areas.

Diversified

employment

opportunity is needed

for female

Develop cottage

industry to

generate

employment.

Give priority to

female in case

of appointing

schools in

village

Human health and working capacity

There is a lack of medical facilities in their locality. People stated that they do not get enough

medical facilities from the government hospital. Sometimes doctors are not available in the

hospitals. Child death rate is increasing in recent time. People confronted malnutrition in

many areas and it causes decrease of working capacity among the local people. Many

diseases spread out in disaster time such as diarrhea, skin disease, cough, lung disease etc.

Various water borne diseases is manifested in several disaster period. Peoples are capable of

any work but more opportunity is needed for enrollment. Livestock losing its habitat due to

flood and so many diseases are spreading from livestock to people (i.e. anthrax). There are

lots of health hazards due to cold wave such as pneumonia, fever, high fever, cough etc.

Peoples are become sick at the time of winter and overall health condition becoming

vulnerable. Children pneumonia is a common phenomenon in the community. Women face

more complications in the pregnancy period.

Table 5.8 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in human

health sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Health and

working

capacity

Policy implication

Policy implication

for better health

condition at

Upazilas level.

Need more doctors,

nurses and medicine

facilities

at government

hospitals

Changing the

mentality of

government

doctors that

they should stay

at their own

work place

Common

medicine

should

distributed

among poor

people in

remote areas

and in any

emergency time

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Climate change

related diseases

Both GO/NGO Rising consciousness

about climate change

related diseases.

Building

awareness for

seasonal

diseases and

crisis

Infrastructure

development

Government will

on the basis of

need assessment

Set up more

hospitals.

Medical center

should be

available for the

local people

Assets

Local people indicated that their main asset is agricultural land and those are becoming

unfertile in recent time as they experienced. Land loses it fertility due to scarcity of water and

other nutrients. For extreme poverty sometimes people are bound to sell their lands and other

assets. There are many barren lands in the area but it is not considered as an asset by the local

people. Deforestation is the cause of losing assets. Sometimes people lost their valuable assets

such as livestock and agricultural product (sugarcane, china rice, aman and other seasonal

crops) for extreme weather event in winter. Using fog resistance medicine it largely affects

the agricultural land and sometime it lost its fertility. Livestock are suffering from diseases

and facing scarcity of food in dry season. Their home, road and highways destroyed by the

various disasters and sometimes they are not able to overcome such assets anyway. They lost

agricultural land; livestock at the time of river bank erosion, most of their land resources are

now into the river. Some of them had only home and that one they lost due to river bank

erosion. Assets development through dowry is very popular in the char areas. Some of them

are developing their assets by migration process.

Table 5.9 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in assets

sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Assets

Women in asset

development

Both GO/NGO

Set up more

industries considering

both agro-based and

chemicals

Develop cottage

industries

Giving more

emphasis on

women for

income

generation and

asset

development

Build up

awareness to

involve various

economic

activities by

both GO/NGO

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Proper land

distribution

Government will

take initiative to

distribute land

Ensure proper

distribution of ‗khas‘

land.

Common shelter is

needed in disaster

period.

Proper use of

the land and

embankment

will be ensured

by the local

people

Generate

opportunities for

asset development

Both GO/NGO Develop assets by

creating employment

opportunities and

such opportunities

should be permanent

Industrialization

Develop

business and

industrial

activities

Generate others

employment

opportunities

Tree plantation

(i.e. local fruit

tree plantation-

lotkon, betel

nut, mango and

papaw etc.)

Climate forecast

At present there is no forecast of climate change occurrences in their locality. People claim

there is no meteorology center. Some of them have no idea about climate change forecast. But

they realize that climate forecast is required for early warning that will be effective to protect

their assets and livelihood. In many cases, Local people are using indigenous knowledge for

climate forecasts. Sometimes such information is given by the experienced elderly person in

the locality. But this one is not widely spread out within the community. But at present, some

of them mentioned that weather and climate is frequently changes. They are not able to

predict it by their local level knowledge. People usually depend on radio and television for

climate change update. But they think that one is not sufficient to meet their need.

Table 5.10 The means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate change in climate

forecast sector


ways of adapting

and mitigating

climate change


Climate

forecast

Monitoring

present

forecasting

system

GO/NGO and local

community

Government will

implement policy

for regional basis

climate change

information

Government should

take initiative at

TV forecast from

national level

Need information

center in village from

where they can get

information about

climate change

incidents.

Set up special school

Monitoring

forecasting

system with the

help of local

people

Climate

forecast should

be spread up to

Upazila level

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local level to

inform about

climate change

events.

temperature and

rainfall to local

administrative

office that they can

provide the

information when

needed

for the farmers

named ‗Farmers

Field school‘ to give

necessary and

updated information

Disseminate

climate change

information

Both GO and NGO

Climate forecasting

through creating

network among

villagers within a

community

Climate forecast

should be spread

through various

organizations (i.e. the

concept of federation

by the RDRS will be

more effective).

Climate forecasting

through union

porishad networking,

school/ college

teacher, local imam

by the local mosque,

mobile messaging

Awareness build up

for climate forecast

Local

representative

from both

GO/NGO will

pass the

climatic

information

Announcement

by the mike at

local level

Local radio

station can

inform about

the climatic

information

Climate

forecasting

through bill

board in the

common places

where local

people are

usually

gathered

Massive use of

indigenous

knowledge

Local people Using local level

indigenous

knowledge to predict

climate change

incidents

Experienced

and elderly

people can use

their common

intelligence,

commonly

practices

prophecy to

understand

about the local

climatic

condition

Impact of Climate Change in Future in Northwest Region

In the present study there is a scope to predict the local impact of climate change in future in

the Northwest region by the local people‘s perception in three categories (i.e. precipitation,

temperature and extreme climate events.

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Precipitation

People perceive that rainy season will be delayed in future. Erratic and low rainfall will be

happened. There is precipitation differences, some of them mentioned it will be increased and

some of them argued with decreasing rainfall pattern. Untimed rainfall will be happened and

average rainfall will be decreased. Some of them are not familiar with precipitation changing

and rest of the people did not give any comment on precipitation pattern in future. There is a

very interesting thing that some of them didn't want to predict because they believe that only

God knows what will happen, they think it is a sin task. Excessive fog will be occurred in

some of the area.

Temperature

People of northwest region distinguish that temperature will be increased. Extreme event of

cold will be decreased. Short duration winter will be happened. Summer will be more

prolonged. Raising temperature will occurred mostly in summer and falling temperature will

be in winter. Short duration winter will be happened. They assumed that community will go

through with uneven weather condition in future. Temperature will be very low in winter

season.

Extreme events

The direct extreme climate change events will be in near future is temperature rise, uneven

rainfall, river bank erosion, flood, drought and storm in their locality. The indirect affect will

be pressure on food security and migration. Unproductively in agriculture land is another

great threat in near future. Huge land will be destroyed completely due to river bank erosion.

The indirect affect will be desertification in some areas and intensity of drought will be

increased in near future in some places. The soil acidity will be increased in some of the areas

of panchaghar district.

Important Livelihood Resources for Adaptation in Northwest Region

Types

There are many types of important livelihood resources are found in the Northwest region.

Local people demarcated that agricultural land, human resources, livestock, wetlands, river,

trees, Tista barrage, cannel, sand, stone, tea garden, fruits garden, poultry, forest, pond are the

most important livelihood resources on which they rely upon their livelihoods. People think

that these livelihood resources can help them to adapt with climate change. Fig 5.3 presented

the percentage of important livelihood resources in four districts of Northwest region. It is

clear that the dominating livelihood resources are agricultural land, approximately 50 to 75

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percent people agreed with agricultural land and indicated it is one of the most important

livelihood resources. Livestock resource is in second position. Human resources, wetlands,

livestock, poultry and many others are also considered as a livelihood resources with different

percentage.

Fig 5.3 Percentage of important livelihood resources in four different districts in Northwest region

Availability

The above mentioned important livelihood resources is not absolutely available for all. On the

other hand availability differs due to duration/occurrence of river bank erosion and on other

natural disaster. Less availability is observed in char lands. Large proportion people are

landless and they do not have the access to use the land resources of their locality. Sometimes

natural wetlands are unavailable to harvest fish. Some of them have livestock only. There is a

prospect of using natural resources by the community people but availability is comparatively

less in dry season. There is exist sufficient agricultural land in the community but those not

properly distributed among the people. Less availability is found for stone because it is only

available in certain area. Livestock resources is damaging due to lack of treatment and

vaccination. Poultry is so available for them. Fig 5.4 indicated that large proportion of

people; overall 55 to 70 percent people have not the important livelihood resources to combat

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with the climate change while 30 to 45 percent people have it. There is a prospect of using

maximum utilization of natural resources but at present availability is decreasing due to over

population.

Fig 5.4 Percentage of people having important livelihood resources in four districts of Northwest

region

Access

Local people think that there is enough access to use such livelihood resources but need to

give more emphasis on proper utilization. The important livelihood resources is not that much

accessible to everyone. Less accessibility is observed for poor people. Landless people do not

have access to agricultural land. As 75 percent people mentioned that agricultural land is their

main livelihood resources and it is not well distributed among the local people. Everyone has

access to use Tista barrage in Northwest region and it will be a potential resource for

fisheries. Government should control market price as everybody can access to buy food.

Proper land use (making industry, cultivation) can ensure employment and accessibility on

natural resources in this area. Another option is that Government can take initiative to

distribute khas lands to landless people for cultivation. In some areas government has already

started such activities to distribute such lands, but the portion of giving those to poor people is

not satisfactory at all.

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Most Vulnerable Group of Climate Change in Northwest Region

The scenario of vulnerability will differ among the various groups. Fig 5.5 depicts the most

vulnerable group of people in four different communities in Northwest region. In river bank

erosion prone community the most vulnerable is erosion prone people and they ranked

number one, 56 percent people. Others are ultra-poor (18 percent), lower middle class (7

percent), women (15 percent), children (4 percent). In the drought prone community the most

vulnerable is women group and they ranked number one with 20 percent. Others are ultra-

poor (18 percent), children (10 percent), landless (14 percent), lower middle class (15 percent)

and marginal farmers (16 percent). In the cold wave prone community the most vulnerable is

old people group and they ranked number one with 30 percent. Others are women (15

percent), children (20 percent), lower class (10 percent), labor (7 percent), landless (7 percent)

and ultra-poor (11 percent). In the flood prone community the most vulnerable is women

group and they ranked number one with 42 percent. Others are ultra-poor (8 percent), children

(17 percent), landless (18 percent), old people (10 percent) and disable (5 percent)

Fig 5.5 Percentage of vulnerable group in four districts of Northwest region

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Underlying Causes of Vulnerability in Northwest Region

People of Northwest region in Bangladesh described many underlying causes of climate

change vulnerability. They mentioned that some of them are not aware about the climate

change events. But surprisingly it is found in field level that most of the respondents (80

percent) know the word ‗Climate Change‘. It is already mentioned that sometimes they are

using their indigenous knowledge to predict about the climate change incidents but at present

it is not used by everyone. Only the aged and experienced person used their inherited

knowledge. People said that they are vulnerable due to flood, irregular flood, river bank

erosion and cold wave. They as well as local government never think of any permanent

solution regarding those, only some temporary solution is taken by the government and local

community. Increasing char lands and sandy soil will become an acute problem in future.

They are found excessive amount of sands in agricultural land at present. In dry season water

scarcity is one of the major problems, very less irrigational facilities are available, declining

water table, filling wet land by the settlement, disruption of normal river water flow will be a great

threat in future for their livelihood. They claim unplanned cannel management, unplanned

embankment lack of knowledge of using inland water sources are main cause of such

vulnerability.

There is a very less employment opportunities are available in such areas and people are

always feeling insecurity of their livelihood. Most of the people are unskilled to do anything

rather than agriculture or agricultural laborer. Again there is exist Cultural/anthropogenic

cause that males are not willing to participate in each and every economic activities. They

only think about three males per day, but not thinking a long run permanent income source for

survives. That‘s why poverty is a common phenomenon all the year round.

Illiteracy is another cause of vulnerability. There is lack of education within the farmers

group. Farmers are not aware about the modern agricultural practice and still lack of modern

knowledge of agricultural is exits among them. It is clearly indicated by them at present they

are using excessive insecticide in their agriculture land. Even they do not know that how

much fertilizer is needed for their cultivation. Some of the areas they depicts that soil are

losing its fertility are it is affects land resources as well as natural resources. Deforestation is

becoming a common thing. Though simultaneously people are planted three but most of them

are exotic tree (acacia, eucalyptus) plantation which brings environmental deterioration in the

entire area.

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They also described another cause of vulnerability that shelter centers are not sufficient in

emergency. There is no center which can give them early information about climate change

forecast. No continuous power supply that is urgent for their region.


Climate change will affect all areas of development work in Bangladesh. Therefore,

mitigation and adaptation policies therefore need to be integrated into all existing projects and

programmes. Climate change adaptation in Northwest region is urgently needs to be

developed and applied in Bangladesh because as it is observed that the Northwest region has

significant evidence of climate change. Adaptation strategies can include- (1) doing nothing –

the least ideal strategy, obviously, but a common one, due to lack of adaptive capacity, (2)

sharing losses: whereby those affected do not bear the full cost of the effects of climate

change; this may include insurance schemes as well as international aid, (3) modifying

threats: includes, for example, changing agricultural cropping patterns (4) preventing effects:

usually requires pre-planning and investments such as the building of large embankments to

protect areas from flooding, (5) changing use: a different use of resources such as fish culture

in cases in flooded areas, (6) changing location: moving homes or businesses to safer areas,

(7)restoration: restoring an area damaged by the effects of climate change to its previous

condition (though of course leaving it open to similar damage in the future) .

Whatever strategy is adopted, however, it should start with and be led by the local community

wherever possible for it is local people who are often the real experts on climate change.

Rather than implementing highly technical, expensive and outsider-led interventions that are

often untried in field conditions, priority should be given to using and modifying traditional

coping mechanisms developed in the communities in Northwest region.

In flood prone areas this may involve using ancient local technologies such as the huge

locally fired clay pots that harvest and store rainwater from roofs, the selection of flood

tolerant rice varieties that have traditionally been cultivated by the local people. Local people

from the Northwest of Bangladesh have developed ingenious floating wooden platform

during flood to live.

At other times adaptation requires some infrastructure development, which may be as

straightforward as raising tube wells on concrete platforms in order that a clean source of

water is available above floodwaters. Concrete shelters within the community have already

saved thousands of lives – and are often used as schools and offices outside emergency

periods. (Such adaptation measures may also require outside technical engineering input.)

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Meanwhile, dry-land agricultural techniques that have been used for centuries in highly

drought-prone areas in other parts of the world are also now proving useful as climate change

adaptations in increasingly rainfall-deficient areas in the Northwest of Bangladesh. These

techniques include the use of intercropping and other agro-forestry techniques, bunds and low

walls in fields to help capture scarce rainfall, compost to retain soil moisture, drought-resilient

plants and roadside tree plantations (but exclude exotic one) to shelter land from wind.

In the river bank erosion prone community people are not able to do anything against such

natural calamities. But they can minimize their losing to transfer their homestead assets before

erosion occurred. As it is observed that sometimes local people are using their indigenous

knowledge to protect river bank erosion. They are using big trees or heavy plastic bags filled

with sand for make temporarily dam. Such dams worked for three or four days. Within this

time people can easily transfer their properties.

A different phenomenon cold wave is a critical crisis for Northwest region. People want cold

wave resistant seed that they can produce their crops with the extreme intensity of cold. They

also want fog resistant technology to save their agricultural product. By this time they also

want easy handling devises to detect the acidity level in their locality. For instant adaption

strategies they mention arranging camp fire within a community to protect themselves from

the cold wave when needed.

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CONCLUS ON

Introduction

Climate change puts populations, particularly in low-lying poor countries like Bangladesh, at

huge risk of becoming displaced. Increased attention and funding to support adaptation

initiatives that enable communities to sustain their livelihoods despite increasingly hostile

environmental conditions will enable families to remain on their land. The result of the

present study has shown that vulnerability to climate change varies not only within

communities but also in households. People in extreme poverty are not only more exposed to

new and adverse climate conditions, but the very factors that keep them trapped in extreme

poverty also make them especially vulnerable to climate change. In the poor communities for

example, social and cultural rules and norms that govern and place limits on the lives of

women, children and other marginalized groups make them especially vulnerable to climate

change.

Present study covers four types of community (i.e. river bank erosion prone community,

drought prone community, cold wave prone community and flood prone community). The

pattern and types of climate change vulnerability is significantly different and that is why the

ways and means of climate change adaptation is also varies. Still now the outcome of the

present study indicated that local people are typically depending on their local level

indigenous knowledge to combat with the recent climate change phenomenon. On the other

hand they also depend on GO and NGO responses. Over the entire Northwest region is

urgently need different policy which will be based on different physical and socio-economic

sign of that particular region.

Chapter 1 is basically focused on the background of taking initiative of research on such

topic. The review of literature indicated that many studies attempted to deal with the climate

change incidents in the recent some. Some of them also indicated the adaptation and

mitigation ways. But unfortunately no one enlighten the adaptation and mitigation measures

Chapter 5

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in the Northwest region elaborately. It indicates the urgency of the present study is to examine

the evidence of climate change and measure the impact of recent climate change phenomenon

in Northwest region of Bangladesh. It will help to gather information on vulnerability and

adaptation capacity considering both present and future. Though many works have been done

on climate in different areas of Bangladesh, but particularly empirical studies on North West

region did cover in a broad sense. It identifies best ways and means for adaptation and

mitigation of climate change impacts in Northwest region in different sector. The

methodology using for present study is Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis

(CVCA). It helps to understand the implications of climate change for the lives and

livelihoods of the people in Northwest region. By combining local knowledge with scientific

data, the process builds people‘s understanding about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

It provides a framework for dialogue within communities, as well as between communities

and other stakeholders. The results provide a solid foundation for the identification of

practical strategies to facilitate the ways and means of community-based adaptation and

mitigation of climate change in Northwest region. As a whole some degree of enlightened the

important livelihood resources/indigenous knowledge and skill may be viewed and explore

for cope up with climate change by facilitate dialogue between communities and local

institutions on climate change vulnerability for community based adaptation in Northwest

region considering river bank erosion prone community, drought prone community, cold

wave prone community and flood prone community for survival of the local people and their

livelihood in this region.

Chapter 2 assessed the general environmental conditions of the study area with two terms: (i)

physical conditions, and (ii) socio-economic conditions. These provide a generalized picture

having bearing on human habitat and economy of the study area in Northwest Bangladesh.

Here physical condition is considering physiography, river system, climate, soil, land and

land use pattern, agro-ecology, environment and natural disaster (i.e. flood, river bank

erosion, drought, and cold wave). The socio-economic condition covers population, age

structure, labor force and occupation, dependency ratio, rural and urban differentials, poverty,

calorie intake, land ownership status in the selected study areas in Northwest region. It also

indicate theoretical construct of the climate change scenario in overall Bangladesh mainly

the secondary sources. The impacts have been observed that summers are becoming hotter,

monsoon irregular, untimely rainfall, heavy rainfall over short period causing water logging

and landslides, very little rainfall in dry period, increased river flow and inundation during

monsoon, increased frequency, intensity and recurrence of floods, crop damage due to flash

floods and monsoon floods, crop failure due to drought, prolonged cold spell, riverbank

erosion, deaths due to extreme heat and extreme cold, increasing mortality, morbidity,

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prevalence and outbreak of dengue, malaria, cholera and diarrhea, etc. The climate change

events generally create insecurities for food, water, life, property, settlement, livelihood assets

and others.

Chapter 3 deals with the evidence of climate change considering four communities (i.e. river

bank erosion prone community, drought prone community, cold wave prone community and

flood prone community. According to the methodology applied for the present study data was

collected through different level, individual, household, local partner, GO/NGO. The ways

and means of adaptation and mitigation of climate change in Northwest region of Bangladesh

is identified by the local community. Before analyzing the ways of adaptation they discuss

climate change impacts in different sectors (i.e. agriculture, fisheries, wetlands, water, food

security, education, gender, human health and working capacity, assets, climate change

forecast). They predict the impact of climate change in future in their locality also. Local

people explore important livelihood resources, its types, availability and access for their

coping strategies in their locality. These means and ways of adapting and mitigating climate

change option is purely identified by them, local people think that these are best solutions

for climate change adaptation and they are able to use such a options without any difficulties.

Lastly in conclusion (chapter 4) reviews the whole study. A framework for three different

level (i.e. Household/individual, local government/community level, national level) is depicts

by them for climate change adaptation by using their indigenous/ local knowledge, skill and

locally available resources. It gives possible recommendation for four different climate

change incident prone community in their locality as well as a general recommendation for

the Northwest region to combat with climate change.

The Ways and Means of Adapting and Mitigating of Climate Change

Vulnerability: An Overview

People‘s vulnerability to climate change is frequently a reflection of marginalization within

their own communities. Therefore, it is assume that their interests will be reliably represented

by state structures. For adaptation and mitigation plans and activities to meet the needs of the

most vulnerable, they must be guaranteed a role in decision-making processes.

In the river bank erosion prone community people are eagerly want to protect the river bank

erosion anyhow. For this they only want governmental support to make necessary dams

where needed. People said that they were not usually able to do anything against it but early

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warning and preparation can minimize such vulnerability. There is no alternative way to resist

the river bank erosion in their locality. For this they want massive tree plantation in the

embankments is one of the main ways of adaptation. They mentioned that control and

maintain the water flow in the river is another option to reduce such vulnerability. They said

about the international corporation between India and Bangladesh for proper water

management. They claimed such argument should come from the political regime of the

country. They indicated different types of means and ways of adapting and mitigation in

different sector, but all those are need to be connected both community people and

institutional capacities. They want proper land distribution among those people who lost their

land due to the river bank erosion.

In the drought prone community people want drought tolerant seed cultivation. Some of them

think of modified high yielding variety of wheat and pulses that can survive with the extreme

drought. They indicated that government should take initiative to ensure continuous power

supply for proper irrigation in the dry season. Government should also ensure fertilizer

facility. They want advance irrigation technology and indicated the possibilities of the local

wetlands to use its water for irrigation purpose in the dry season. There is a possible option

for fishing in the pond by the plastic coating .They said that if government takes initiative to

develop cottage industry in their locality it will be a great option to generate employment for

women. People want easy handling devices to measure temperature and rainfall in their

locality by their own , or they want that local administration both GO/NGO will inform them

about the local climatic condition continuously.

In the cold wave prone community people want to use medicine to save their agriculture

production from cold wave. They want that government should introduce and supply cold

resistant seeds. At present they are using calcium carbonate to reduce acidity from the soil but

they want that such facilities should give the local government. They should provide easy

handling instruments (i.e. Ph. meter) to farmer as if they can measure the acidity of soil. They

indicated that if there is possibility to store rainwater that will be a good option for use it as

domestic and agriculture purpose. They want information center in village from where they

can get information about climate change incidents regularly and with the help of this they

will be able to take early initiative to lessen the vulnerability. They expect that government

will provide warm clothes to the extreme poor in the emergency period. They want to set up

special school for the farmers named ‗Farmers Field School‘ to give necessary and updated

climate change information.

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In the flood prone community people want flood tolerant seed cultivation and advance

technology for early harvesting to protect their agricultural production from early/unwanted

flood. They want to change their cropping pattern. They want that government should ensure

proper distribution of seeds and pesticide. Practice case fish culture to protect huge amount of

fish migration during flood season is very good option for fisheries development in their

locality. They expect that government will take each and every step for proper flood

management needed. Making bill board in the market place showing hazard map will a great

opportunity for them to collect information and early warning about climate change.

Possible Recommendations

Lastly, a framework for three different level (i.e. Household/individual, local

government/community level, national level) is depicts by them for climate change adaptation

by using their indigenous/ local knowledge, skill and locally available resources. This section

analyzed the framework for community based adaptation considering three different levels (1.

house hold/individual level, 2. local government/ community level, 3. national level). Here

emphasis is given into three themes- climate resilient livelihood, disaster risk reduction, local

capacity development in different community in Northwest region.

1. House hold/individual level

Types Adaptation/Mitigation

Climate

resilient

livelihood

Reconstruction of houses in safe period

Changing food habit

Migration to other region both seasonal/temporary basis

Take shelter in shelter center or any other safe places when needed

Depend on government and N.G.O‘s relief.

Storing seed and crop

Homestead gardening

Depend on livestock

Increase natural resistant to cope up with the extreme cold

Early preparation of facing cold (i.e. buying warm cloth)

Fire camping

Selling assets if it is necessary in extreme case

Taking help from GO/NGO

Making wooden platform during flood to live

Taking shelter at the Embankment.

Disaster risk

reduction Prepare and aware about the impact of climate change and disaster.

Taking relief from GO/NGO.

Taking early preparation at household level (i.e. Prompt transfer of house

hold assets and other properties )

Using indigenous knowledge to predict climate change events as well as

disasters.

Local

capacity

development

Store food at household level

Seasonal/permanent migration

Seasonal fishing

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Set up agricultural center to share local level knowledge

Exchange and share indigenous knowledge with agricultural officer in the

locality solve their different agricultural problem

Using calcium carbonate to reduce soil acidity

Participate in diversified employment opportunities

Replacing shallow tube well to deep tube well.

Develop livestock and poultry

2. Local government/ community level

Types Adaptation/Mitigation in river bank erosion prone community

Climate

resilient

livelihood

Raising awareness about the climate change

Identification of alternative ways for survive in emergency period within

the community

Harvesting flood tolerant crops

Adapt with the diversified agricultural pattern

Give more emphasis on agricultural base livelihoods

Proper and intensive utilization of the Tista barrage

Using each and every facilities that are given by the GO/NGO

Livelihood development through regional development

Find out the possibilities of implement ‗Dhan bank‘ in community level

Alternative cropping in barren field

Early harvesting

Alternative agricultural practice such as wheat, nut etc.

Taking micro credit facilities

Community forestation

Adapt with changing cropping pattern

Fire camping within community in case of extreme cold wave events

Promote small range business (i.e. cottage)

Encourage short time/seasonal migration

Making water reservoir at the locality and store rain water

Fish harvesting in rice field

Producing more milk and flesh from livestock

Disaster risk

reduction Increasing community involvement to reduce disaster risk

Ensure community level warning about disasters

Build embankment on the basis of local context

Local capacity building by using indigenous knowledge

Locally awareness building

Giving quick and prompt information about various disasters when needed.

Giving training to reduce risk of disaster

Perception build up about disaster within the community

Warm cloth distribution.

Local

capacity

development

Proper utilization of the natural resources that are available at local level

Giving motivation to the local people to combat with the climate change

events

Develop indigenous knowledge and sharing experiences among farmer

community to enrich their local level perception and skill.

Need more co-operation between GO vs. NGO

Vocational training to unskilled people to promote non-farm activities

Ensure unity among local people

Fund collection by community involvement to buy warm cloths and give

medical support when needed.

Digging pond and share it within the community

Making dome for preserving rice straw during winter

Give agricultural training

Give poultry and cattle rearing

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Give different skill based training

Set up cottage industries in Northwest region

3. National level

Types Adaptation/Mitigation in river bank erosion prone community

Climate

resilient

livelihood

Implementing coping planning for climate change impacts considering both

GO/ NGO.

Distributed ‗kash‘ land among the landless people

Policy implication for proper food distribution and food market

management

Ensure relief from GO/ NGO in emergency period

River dredging and ensure proper river management

Advancement of irrigation technology

Enhanced agricultural technology

Ensure proper use of natural resources (i.e. Land, water, forest etc.)

Introduce and promote crop/ agriculture diversification

Introduce and promote drought/flood tolerant and fog resistance seed

Ensure proper use of other barren land

Mass forestation ( considering only local trees)

Ensure proper use of fertilizer, insecticide and pesticide

Introduce and promote high yielding varieties to grow more food in limited

land resource

Improvement of transport network and commercial nodes( including land

and river ports)

Generate alternative income through employment diversification by

increasing more industrial activities

Give support for continuous power supply

Build cold storage

Introduce and promote technology for water reservoir to preserve rain

water /rain fed cultivation

Give proper vaccination for livestock.

Disaster risk

reduction Research on preparedness of various disasters bearing in mind Northwest

region

Planning, perception and awareness build up on early preparedness of

various disasters in Northwest region

Implement regional basis weather forecasts taking into account Northwest

region

Make dams and embankment where necessary and forestation on those

Promote crop insurance scheme and other facilities due to crop failure

Make more culvert with water passage system

Flood controlling and flood risk management, emphasis should be giving

only Northwest region basis.

GO/NGO support for cold wave victims and providing warm cloth in case

of extreme cold events.

Apply strict law in cutting down trees

Local

capacity

development

Create more employment opportunities through GO/NGO collaboration

Implement proper planning for adaptation and mitigation with high skilled

man power

Local capacity development measure should be taken on north west region

context

Generate diversified employment opportunities through industrialization

Government should provide modern and latest agricultural knowledge to

local farmers

Provide vocational training for landless/ unprivileged people.

Educational improvement

of 133

Develop heavy industries and agro-based industries

Fishery development

Established agricultural help center for the farmers to give all necessary

information about their cultivation

Tree plantation in local level

Develop and transfer indigenous agricultural knowledge among farmers

Ensure relief from GO/NGO

Generate special job opportunity/ seasonal job options at the time of food

scarcity

Removing brick fields from Northwest region

Giving compensation from government after disaster

General Recommendations for Northwest Region

There is a need for integration of climate change into all aspects of national, sectoral and

spatial development in Northwest region. Improved capacity of relevant ministries and

agencies is essential in achieving this. Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh will result in

added costs for governments, communities and private individuals. The challenge is ensuring

that the benefits of investment in climate change adaptation (by reducing risk and lowering

cost) outweigh the costs. The possible general recommendations are given below for

adaptation and mitigation of climate change in Northwest region:

- Vulnerable groups within countries and communities must be identified.

Vulnerability assessments must incorporate analysis of economic, social and political

determinants of adaptive capacity. Target the most vulnerable people in Northwest

region. Priority adaptation measures should give emphasis on who will do what, how

it will do and what will be the process to do.

- Need Systematic assessment of socio-economic vulnerability. Ensure proper land

management. Distributed kash land among the affected people. Industrialization and

ensure continuous power supply for employment generation. Power supply is also

needed for irrigation and proper water management for agricultural purpose.

- Introduce and promote high yielding and disaster resilient crop varieties and

alternative cropping pattern. Crop insurance scheme should be incorporate due crop

failure by any natural incidents.

- Resources for inclusive and participatory assessments and planning for Northwest

region must be available up front.

- Special policy implication for coping planning for different disasters in Northwest

region is urgently needed.

- Allocate sufficient adaptation funding for North West Region.

- Analysis the current exposure to climate shocks and stresses. Need model-based

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analysis of future climate impacts in Northwest region. It also demands an

understanding of the existing vulnerability of individuals, households, and

communities and the institutional, political, physical and social environment in which

they live.

- Vulnerability assessments should be gender sensitive and involve local stakeholders.

- Representatives from vulnerable communities, populations and people and from civil

society from Northwest should be on the board of any future international adaptation

funding regime.

- Monitoring should include regular assessments of progress made in fulfilling basic

civil and political as well as economic, social and cultural human rights through

adaptation programs and policies.

- Implement regional basis weather forecasts on various disasters and climate change

events.


In order for developing countries to be able to plan for the future and to effectively implement

adaptation actions, they need access to adequate, predictable and sustainable funding streams

for it. Adaptation commitments should be based on historic responsibility and capability to

pay, and the funds should be new and additional to existing commitments. The planning and

implementation of adaptation measures must be integrated into existing development plans

and processes.

Despite the global nature of the challenge, the impacts of climate change are locally-specific.

The most effective way to ensure that adaptation funds help the most vulnerable is through

community-based adaptation initiatives which explicitly aim to build their adaptive capacity.

Community-based adaptation is an integrated process which is grounded in analysis of

vulnerability from environmental, social, economic and political perspectives. It combines

traditional knowledge with innovative strategies to address evolving challenges. The process

is focused on building resilience of livelihoods, protecting people and assets from climate

hazards such as droughts, floods, river bank erosion and cold wave and building capacity of

local institutions to support people in adapting. It also involves challenging the power

structures and policies that shape people‘s vulnerability. Community-based adaptation in

Northwest involves action not only at the local level, but also the creation of an enabling

environment. This requires the engagement of a wide range of stakeholders, from vulnerable

people, to local governments and civil society organizations, to national-level policy makers

of Bangladesh.

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Appendix 1: Investigating area of Northwest region

Appendices

District Upazila Union

Village

Kurigram

Chilmari Ramna Bangmarar char

Baktiarkhata

Ramna ghat

Noyar hat

Bajradiarghata

Nageswari Kaligonj Shalmara

Kaligonj bazar

Berbari

Kurigram Sadar Paurashava Kurigram Govt.

College

Nilphamari

Dimla Paschim Chhatnai

Dimla Union

Nababpara

Mona kasha

Jaldhaka Saulmari Dewanipara

Nekvokto Sardar Para

Nilphamari sadar Paurashava RDRS Nilphamari

Panchagarh

Tentulia

Boda

Panchgarh sadar Paurashava

Sekherhat

Haribhasa

Hafizabad

Singnathpara

Singpara

Talma

Matiapara

Panihara

Latuapara

Jamiruddin Collegiate

Institute

Dhomoni

Suliapara

Gaibandha

Saghata Bonarpara Doldolia

Guabarir Char

Sughatta sadar Hospital

Sundargonj Tarapur

Kanchipara

Sukh shanti bazar

Ketkirhat

Gaibandha Sadar Paurashava Balashi Ghat

Modnepara

Kanchipara

of 133

Appendix 2: Details of the respondents

Sl.

No.

Name/Respondents Age Position Address Target

group

Community

represents 1 Mr. Manik

Chowdhury

51

Director

JIBIKA NGO

Kurigram

Sadar,

Kurigram

Local partner

(NGO)

River bank

Erosion

prone

2 Md. Tofawel Hossain

53 Vice Principle

Kurigram

Government

College

kurigram

sadar,

Kurigram

Local partner

(Government)

River bank

Erosion

prone

3 Dr. Kalidash Debnath 55 Director

DRRO

kurigram sadar Local partner

(Government)

River bank

Erosion

prone

4 Md.Mohsinul haque 48

Head of a

Household

kurigram sadar Individual River bank

Erosion

prone

5 Dr. Shahin shajjad

40

Assistant

Surgeon

Kurigram

sadar,

kurigram

Local partner

(Government)

River bank

Erosion

prone

6 Md. Joynal Abedin 37

Project manager

(RDRS)

kurigram

sadar,

kurigram

Local partner

(NGOs)

River bank

Erosion

prone

7 Adhorchandro modok

45 Individual shalmara,

kaligonj,

kurigram

Representative

of the

Community

River bank

Erosion

prone

8 Mominul Islam

50 General

Secretary

Kurigram Press

Club

Kurigram

sadar,

Kurigram

Representative

of the

Community

River bank

Erosion

prone

9 Mr. Said Ali 60 Farmer Bangmarar

char, chilmari,

kurigram

Individual River bank

Erosion

prone

10 Mr. Sekendar Ali

45

Household head

Shalmara,

kaligonj,

nageswari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

11 Mrs. Tahervan 50 Housewife Shalmara,

kaligonj,

nageswari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

12 Mr. Bakhtiar Ali

60 Household head Ramna ghat,

chilmari,

kurigram

Representative

of the

Community

River bank

Erosion

prone

13 Mr. Golam Ali 45 Household head Bangmarar

char, chilmari,

kurigram

Household River bank

Erosion

prone

14 Mr. Noor Islam 60 Household head

Bangmarar

char, chilmari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

15 Mr. Krishna Chandra

Sarker

40 Teacher,

Kaligonj H.A.

High School

Kaligonj

bazar,

nageswari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

16 Md.Ruhulamin 60 Farmer

Shalmara,

Nageswari


Erosion

of 133

Sl.

No.


group

Community

represents union,

Kurigram

prone

17 Gourp of people 20-

45+

Inhabitants of

the Ramna Char

Ramna Char,

Chilmari,

Kurigram

Community River bank

Erosion

prone

18 Mosammod Sharmin

akhter

32 House wife Bangmarar

Char,

Chilmari,

Kurigram


Erosion

prone

19 Md. Ali 55 Household head Baktiarkhata,

Bangmara

union,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

20 Md. Zahangir alam 40 Farmer Noyar hat,

chilmari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

21 Md. Momin Uddin 70 Businessman Kaligonj,

Nageswari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

22 Sri Zotish chandra

Bormon

57 Household head

Bajradiarghata,

Chilmari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

23 Sri Roychondra

Bormon

35 Household head

Bajradiarghata,

Chilmari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

24 Ambia Begaum 43 House wife

Bajradiarghata,

Chilmari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

25 Sri Pobitra Chandra

Malakar

61 Farmer Berbari,

Kaligonj,

Nageswari,

kurigram


Erosion

prone

26 Md. Salek

Chowdhury

55 Household head

Jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

27 Md. Zillur Rahman

51 District

Commissioner

(DC)

Kurigram Local partner

(Government)

Drought

prone

28 Motiur Rahman

42 Chairman, 3 No

Sadar Dimla

Union

Dimla Union,

Dimla

Nilphamari

Local partner

(Government)

Drought

prone

29 Group of People

( Farmer)

35-

60

Community

Farmer

Dimla,

Nilphamari

Communities

Drought

prone

30 Mizanur rahman

37 TNO Dimla,

Nilphamari

Individual

Drought

prone

of 133

Sl.

No.


group

Community

represents 31 Abdul gafur

48 Household head

jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Household Drought

prone

32 Shahin Jahangir alam

35 Journalist

Nilphamari

sadar

Representative

of a

Communities

Drought

prone

33 Dr.shah Md.Moajjem

Hossain

40 Medical

officer(RMO)

Nilphamari

sadar

Local partner

(Government)

Drought

prone

34 Md.Aftab Hossain

52 Agriculture

officer

Dimla,

Nilphamari

Local partner

(Government)

Drought

prone

35 Sadat Hossain 40 Household head Nababpara,

Paschim

Chhatnai,

Dimla,

Nilphamari

Household Drought

prone

36 Abul Hossain 65 Household head Nababpara,

Paschim

Chhatnai,

Dimla,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

37 Group of people 32-

65

Members of

RDRS

Federation-

Shawlmari

Shawlmari,

Jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Community

Drought

prone

38 Liakat Ali 61 Household head Dewanipara,

Shawlmari,

Jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

39 Md. Moeen 55 Land less farmer Paschim

Chhatnai,

Dimla

Nilphamari

Household Drought

prone

40 Mr. Hasnat Mia 52 Farmer Monakosha,

West

Chhatnai,

Dimla,

Nilphamari

Household Drought

prone

41 Farida Parvin 42 House wife

Nababpara,

Paschim

Chhatnai

Dimla,

Nilphamari

Household

Drought

Prone

42 Md.Jamiur Rahman 50 Household head Nekvokto

Sardar Para,

Jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Household Drought

prone

43 Md. Bosir Uddin 80 Household head Nekvokto

sarderpara,

jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Household Drought

prone

of 133

Sl.

No.


group

Community

represents 44 Md. Abdul karim 39 Farmer Mona kasha,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

45 Group of People 35-

60+

Community

Farmers of

Nekvokto

Sarderpara

village

Nekvokto

sarderpara,

jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Communities

Drought

prone

46 Ferdousi 39 House Wife Jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

47 Mofijur Rhahaman

Chowdhury

45 Household head Jaldhaka,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

48 Hasan Ali 34 Household head Paschim

Chhatnai

union, Dimla,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

49 Md. Akram Ali 45 Household head Mona kasha,

Dimla,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

50 Khodeja Begaum 42 Farmer Paschim

Chhatnai

union, Dimla,

Nilphamari

Individual Drought

prone

51 Dr.rafia sultana

30 Medical Officer

Panchagarh

Sadar

Hospital

Panchagarh

sadar

Local partner

(Government)

Cold wave

prone

52 Prof.Md.Gias uddin 53 Professor

Makbular

Rahman Govt

college

Panchagarh

sadar

Local partner

(Government)

Cold wave

prone

53 Tasdeeda begum

35 Asst.

manager(RDRS)

Panchagarh

sadar

Local partner

(NGOs)

Cold wave

prone

54 Bijay kumar chattergy 50 Household head Panchagarh

sadar

Household Cold wave

prone

55 Group of people Member of

RDRS

Federation

Hafizabad,

Panchagarh

Community

Cold wave

prone

56 Mr. Ramjan Ali 60 Household head Singnathpara,

Panchgarh

sadar,

Panchgarh

Individual Cold wave

prone


50+

Community-

Singnathpara

village,

Panchgarh

sadar,

Panchgarh

Singnathpara,

Panchgarh

sadar,

Panchgarh

Community

Cold wave

prone


50+

Community-

Suliapara,

sekherhat,

Panchgarh

Suliapara,

Sekherhat,

Panchgarh

sadar,

Panchgarh

Community

Cold wave

prone

of 133

Sl.

No.


group

Community

represents Sadar

59 Md. SayedAli 70 Household head Talma,

Hafizabad,

Panchagarh


prone

60 Md. Mofazzal Haque 50 Household head Panihara,

Hafizabad,

Panchagarh


prone

61 Md. Abdul Kader 50 Household head Latuapara,

Dhakkamara,

Panchagarh


prone


60+

Community-

Singnathpara

village

Singpara,

Panchgarh

sadar Upazila,

Panchgarh

Community

Cold wave

prone

63 Mr. Shafiur 41 Household head Panchgarh

sadar Upazila,

Panchgarh


prone

64 Mr Azad

Mr. Suresh Chandra

Roy

Mr. Mamunur Rashid

35,

37,

45

Education

Program

Officer, BRAC

BRAC,

Panchgarh

sadar Upazila,

Panchgarh

Local partner

(NGOs)

Cold wave

prone

65 Md. Yunus Ali

34 Teacher

Shekerhat High

school

Sekherhat

High school,

Panchagarh

sadar

Local partner

(Government)

Cold wave

prone

66 Saiful Alam 35 Household head Sekherhat,

Suliapara,

Panchagarh

sadar


prone

67 Md. Fazle Alam

Minto

45 Farmer Sekherhat,

Suliapara,

Panchagarh

sadar


prone

68 Md. Abdul Kader 65 Household head Latuapara,

Dhakkamara,

Panchagarh


prone

69 Porosh Kumar Saha 40 Teacher

Jamiruddin

Collegiate

Institute

Jamiruddin

Collegiate

Institute,

Panchagarh

Local partner

(Government)

Cold wave

prone

70 Mr. Saiful Alam Babu 35 Correspondent:

Kaler Kontho,

Panchgarh

Panchgarh

sadar,

Panchgarh

Representative

of a

Community

Cold wave

prone

71 Mr. Monsoor Ali 45 Household head Matiapara,

Haribhasa,

Panchgarh

sadar,

Panchgarh


prone

72 Anwar Sadik 41 Sub assistant

agriculture

officer

RDRS

Bangladesh,

Panchagarh

Local partner

(NGOs)

Cold wave

prone

of 133

Sl.

No.


group

Community

represents

73 Bodiur Rahaman 62 Household head Dhomoni,

Panchagarh

Individual

Cold wave

prone


50+

Members of

RDRS

Federation

Haribhasa,

Panchgarh

Haribhasa,

Panchgarh

sadar,

Panchgarh

Community

Cold wave

prone

75 Mr. Abul Hashem 80 Household head Matiapara,

Haribhasa,

Panchgarh

sadar Upazila,

Panchgarh

Household Cold wave

prone


65+

People of the

Guabari char

Guabari Govt.

Primary

School,

Guabari char,

Sughatta,

Gaibandha

Community

Flood prone

77 Md. Mojibor

Rhahaman

65 Farmer Balashi Ghat,

Gaibandha

Sadar,

Gaibandha

Individual Flood prone

78 Alis Arun Majuder

40 Programme

coordinator

RDRS

Gaibandha

sadar

Local partner

(NGOs)

Flood prone

79 Md . shamsul alam 48 Household head Sundargonj,

Gaibandha

Individual

Flood prone

80 Md. Shahidul Islam

42 Fisherman Sundargonj,

Gaibandha


81 Ms. Rehana

40 Program

Coordinator

Disaster

management

GUK

Gaibandha

sadar

Local partner

(NGOs)

Flood prone

82 Md. Hafiz Uddin 55 Household head Doldolia

Adorsho

Gram,

Bonarpara

union,

Gaibandha


83 Doma Rani 60 Housewife Doldolia

Adorsho

Gram,

Bonarpara

union,

Gaibandha


84 Dr. Shahed-ul-Matin 27 Medical officer

Sughatta

Upazila health

complex

Sughatta sadar

Hospital,

Gaibandha

Local partner

(Government)

Flood prone

85 Md. Shajahan

45 Sub- assistant

Engineer

Sukh Nagar,

Gaibandha

Local partner

(Government)

Flood prone

of 133

Sl.

No.


group

Community

represents Fisheries

86 MS. Hazera Khatun 70 House Wife Modnepara,

Gaibandha

Sadar,

Gaibandha

Individual

Flood prone

87 Siddik Alam Doyal 45 Journalist

Gaibandha

sadar

Representative

of a

Communities

Flood prone

88 Md. Khalilur

Rhahaman

75 Household head Kanchipara,

Gaibandha

Sadar,

Gaibandha


89 Beguni Rani 55 House Wife Ketkirhat,

Kanchipara

union,

wards#04,

Fulchori,

Gaibandha


90 Sri Sukhlal

42 Household head Ketkirhat,

Kanchipara

union,

wards#04,

Fulchori,

Gaibandha


91 Md. Foyez Ullah

Talukdar

34 APC,FSUP

Gaibandha

RDRS

Bangladesh

Sukh shanti

bazar,

Gaibandha

Local partner

(NGOs)

Flood prone

92 Mrs. Joba Rani 30 House Wife Doldolia,

Bonarpara,

Saghata,

Gaibandha


93 Bablu Mia 32 Radio Mechanic Ketkirhat,

Kanchipara

union,

ward#04,

Fulchori,

Gaibandha


94 Md. Hakim Uddin

56 Imam of

Tarapur Mosque

Tarapur

Union,

Sundargonj

Gaibandha


95 Nirrongon Chandra

Sorkar

40 Household head Tarapur

Union,

Sundargonj

Gaibandha

Household Flood prone

96 Group of People 35 People of

Guabarir Char

Guabarir Char,

Saghata,

Gaibandha

Community

Flood prone

97 Md. Afsar Ali 65 Household head Tarapur

Union,

Sundargonj

Gaibandha


98 Mrs. Asma Khatun 35 Household head Guabarir Char,

Saghata,

Household Flood prone

of 133

Sl.

No.


group

Community

represents Gaibandha


45+

Patients of

Sughatta sadar

Hospital

Sughatta sadar

Hospital,

Gaibandha

Community

Flood prone

100 Mr. Shamol Kumar

35 Assistant

Engineer LGED

Gaibandha

sadar,

Gaibandha

Local partner

(Government)

Flood prone

Appendix 2 Harvesting Tilapia in rice fields

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Appendix 4 Case studies taken from different community in the study area

Case study 1

Said Ali (Aged: 60) District: Kurigram

Mr. Said Ali is a 60 years old farmer of Bangmarar Char at Chilmari Union, Kurigram. He was born in fifth decade of this century. Said Ali was the first child among his two brothers and three sisters. His parents lead a happy life with their children. When Said was 10 years old, he began to cultivate land with his father. Said family has more than 50 bighas of agricultural land and after that the land was well distributed among his brothers and him. Said Ali got married with Taraman Begum and make his new home near his father's home at chilmari union. Said Ali has two sons and five daughters. One of his son migrated to Dhaka and never come back. Another son now is a carpenter at Chilmari union. Five daughter of him has been married. From early life of Said, he has become a victim of river bank erosion. Most of his land was along with the river and river eroded 22 times of his assets. Even now most of his land is into the river Brahmaputra. If the land raises by forming a new Char, he can possessed and began to cultivate. But still one land if rises, other part of is eroded and submerged. In the end he has remained only his home at Bangmarar Char and a little property at the mainland of Chilmari union. Said is now cultivate lease land and act like maintenance of his family. He got no help and support from his sons and family. He leads an isolated life and don't move anywhere.

Case study 2

Sadek Ali (Aged: 57) District: Nilphamari

Sadek Ali is a 67 years old landless farmer of Nababpara village. He was born in 1943 at Nababpara, Kaligonj, Paschim Chhatnai union, Nilphamari. Sadek Ali's father was the inhabitant of Tangail district. Sadek Ali was First child of his parents among his three brothers and four sisters. He begun to start cultivate his land with his father at when he is 7 years old. His two brothers also included into agriculture work later. He possessed a little agricultural land, after his father's death. Then Sadek Ali got married with Hazera Bibi seven years after the independent war of Bangladesh. He has three daughters and two sons. Two sons are now separate from him and the daughters were married and go away from him. Sadek Ali don't move anywhere from his home. Sadek Ali has no land now, which is basic need of a farmer to live. He leads an unhappy life with his wife. Five month of a year agricultural activity has been stopped due to drought, flood and other natural disaster. He used to cultivate other peoples land by lease to live. But that five month of a year (Including Monga Period) has no productivity, and life of that period become harder to sustain. He said that someday he had never got three meals a day. Once a meal he got, then other meal his wife had. He adapting with this condition for many years. He has to buy rice or other food from market, so he hadn't buy food for that five month, and then he had obliged to lend money from others to live. Other agricultural crops except rice like Maize, corn, pepper couldn't possible to cultivate due to drought. The land become sandy and need to irrigate properly, but he has no money to expense to cultivate his borrowed land. Sadek Ali leads an inhuman life now. He has no money to buy rice, because of high rate of price. He is now nearly end of his life, health quality not good also, so he can't do labor for income. Still now Sadek Ali didn't know how he leads life in future!

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Case study 3

Jaba Rani (Aged: 27) District: Gaibandha

Jaba Rani is a 27 years old housewife of cluster village settled by Government at Doldolia village, under the union of Bonarpara and Sughatta Upazila at Gaibandha district. Jaba was born in Talluk-Rifayatpur village of Badiakhali union under Gaibandha sadar Upazila. She was the first child of her parents including three sisters and one brother. Jaba was married when she was 17 years old with Shirischandra. After marriage, she came to her husband's house at Doldolia. But her Husband was also poor and they had joint family with more than 15 members. Jaba leads an unhappy life with her husband there. They have a great wanting of accommodation problem. She was acting there as a maid servant. Three years later she was refused by her husband and came to separation. After some days she came to the cluster village nearby and lives with her two children. Jaba leads an extreme miserable life at cluster village. She lives into a hut with her children and the hut submerged when flood is occurring. She doesn't move anywhere, even if a greater disaster has come. Sometimes Jaba also works as a day labor. Most of the month of a year, has flooding her home and other assets, but she has no way to go somewhere. She said that she never had three meals a day when was she come alone to this village.

Case study 4

Sri Jotish Chandra Barman (Aged: 68) District: Kurigram

Sri Zotish Chandra Barman is the inhabitants of Bajradiar Ghata In kurigram at present. But it is not his own village. His village was Noyarhat char. His age is 68 now. He is the 2nd child of his family. His father was a farmer. He was also a farmer. They had about 10 bigha Lands. But after that there land submerged into the Brahmaputra river he became absolutely landless. He married at the age of 25. He has five children now. Among two of them are girls and one boy. All of his sons got married. His sons live separated with their wife. They do not look after him and his wife. He is now a day laborer. His wife is a housewife. He lives by hand to mouth. He works in others land. He lives on others land also. He leads his life full of miseries. River bank erosion makes his life worst. He said about this river," What can I say about this river? The river takes everything from us, now I have nothing to survive." He don't want to move anywhere from this place. Because his ancestor was also live like that and he don’t want to make him exception.

Case study 5

Horimadhow (Aged: 90) District: Gaibandha

Horimadhow is a 90 years old person. His birthplace is Rasulpur in Gaibandha. At present he lives in the Beribadh in Basarpara in Gaibandha district with his wife. He is the 2nd child of his family among six brothers and three sisters. His father had fisheries business. He was also doing fisheries business at his young age. He is not educated like his other brothers. He married at the age of 19. He has three son and one daughter. All of them are married now. All of his sons are lived separately. They had 11 bigha lands. But these lands are no more. These lands are submerged into the Brahmaputra river. After that they became landless and their miseries started which is still going now. He is incapable of doing any work now because of his age. His wife is also incapable of doing any work. Now he and his wife get adult allowance. They depend upon this allowance. But the amount of allowance is very little to them for survive. He cannot bear his expanses with this little allowance. His children do not look after him and his wife anymore. He and his wife never get minimum health service. Every day he passes his time at the bank side of the river. He said about the river that it has no right to make people landless anymore though many of the people are landless like him. He is now counting his days to pass away!

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Case study 6

Md. Ali (Aged 55) District: Kurigram

Md. Ali is a landless farmer. He is the second son of his father. His home was in Bangmara union. His family was the one of the solvent family in that time. But there was little scope of education for the children of his family, so he could not get any education. At the age of 25 he got married. In the same year he faced the devastating river bank erosion. Twenty bigha lands, house, trees, livestock and everything were lost for river bank erosion .They take shelter in the Bakhtiar Char area. At the interval of one year his parents died. He starts a new life as a day labor. Now he is the head and only earning member of his family, he has three children. He becoming aged and cannot work frequently. Because of poverty he cannot afford his children education, food and other prime facilities. His family members are suffering in malnutrition and hunger for many days. Also he and his wife are too much sick at present. His elder son works in a garments factory in Dhaka, but does not have any relationship with him and his family. In the rainy season his home goes under water, and then he takes shelter in the side highway and passing a miserable life without food, cloth and shelter. After while when the flood water decrease then he reconstruct his hut again. Sometimes he had no money for reconstruction. Now Md. Ali and his family are passing an extreme wretched life. Till he does not get any kinds of relief or other financial support from anywhere, both GO and NGO. Md. Ali is worried about the future of his family members and waiting for a dismal end.

Case study 7

Rawson Ara begum (Aged: 32) Dist: Gaibandha

Rawson Ara begum is a 32-years old woman. She is a house wife. She has one daughter and one son of her own and two step son and daughter. Her husband was an agricultural laborer usually worked in other's land. She got married, many years ago when she was in class five. Then she lived in Fulchori village of Gaibandha. It is a char land of Jamuna River. Her family was very needy because dwellers of their village were affected almost every year. Maximum people were landless. Early marriage is the result of poverty. Early marriage was very much practiced in that village. Girls were forced to marry a elderly men, in childhood or teen age. Girls were forced but they can do nothing to resist early marriage. Rawson Ara is one of them. She got married firstly with an elderly man. She was very much afraid to live with him and his family. Three year later she got divorced and after some time she remarried with her present husband in “char Guabari”. It is also a char of under Gaibandha in Jamuna River. At that time of her marriage her husband had 2 decimal of arable land. But for flood she lost that arable land, a pond, crops, many jackfruit, mango and other fruit trees, livestock, chicken and ducks also. After displacement, she forced to sell her household items and 2 cows at a very cheap rate. After flood she lost all her assets and her husband became landless and an agricultural labor. She and her family fell into a situation of extreme poverty and hunger. Her husband was the only earning member in her family and at that time it was quite difficult to survive. Her children had to discontinue their studies. When her husband had no work and her family suffered from extreme hunger and starvation. Last two year ago, they experience flood again. And they migrate to another char of Jamuna river. They are completely land less and homeless now. They reconstructed house on a land which ownership belongs two other one. Every month they have to pay to land owner with interest. Her husband cant effort all that expenses. So he pressurizes her to bring money from her father. Her husband is workless maximum time in a year. But sometimes he goes to work in other’s land in Gaibandha. Last two years ago, when her family was flood affected again she gave birth a. Her new born baby was suffered by pneumonia and skin disease. But they could not take her to a doctor because transportation was unattainable and they had no single money. Fortunately her baby is still surviving but suffering from malnutrition. After all, she accepted all the miseries as her fate. And still expect that someday they will own a piece of land and settled life in a certain land and they will lead a steady life.

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Case Study 8

Majitunnesa

Dist: Kurigram Majitunnesa is a 45-year old women, she is a house wife. She lives in chilmari under Kurigram district. She has four sons and one daughter. She does not know where her husband is for more than five years. Her husband is laborer usually worked in other's land or road construction. When she got married, she migrated from Lalmomirhat and stayed with her husband in chilmari. At the of her marriage her husband had 10 decimal of arable land. But for riverbank erosion she lost that arable land, crops, chicken and ducks also. After riverbank erosion she lost all her assets and her husband became landless and day laborer. She and her family fell into a situation of extreme poverty. Her husband was the only earning member in her family and at that time it was quite difficult to survive. Her children had to discontinue their studies. And they have grown up as a amateurish, as a result they also involve in selling labor. But their economic crisis is still increasing than before. In the meantime two of her son’s got married and family member increased. Recently her grandson has got infant death. Her family suffered from extreme hunger and starvation in lean period “Monga”. When her son doesn’t have any work then leading life is quite impossible for them. Her younger son has migrated Dhaka to ensure employment. He is also selling labor in Dhaka now as a construction laborer. Now she is completely hopeless about her life and also all her family member leading a very uncertain life. Just not only asset, there is a exist of lack of every primary need what is necessary for a human being. They have no proper sanitation, food in three times in a day, no medical support. In a word life is totally despondent for them.

Appendix 4 Some photographs taken from the study area

(Picture taken from Kurigrm district)

Photo 1 Local people make temporary embankment alongside the river to

protect river bank erosion for a time being that they can transfer their asset elsewhere

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(Picture taken from Nilphamari district)

Photo 2 Casing fish method is one of the best ways to protect unwanted fish migration

as well as good fish production.

(Picture taken from Guabari Char, Gaibandha district)

Photo 3 Cultivate wheat in char areas will be a one of good option for

crop diversification in Northwest region

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(Picture taken from chilmari, kurigram district)

Photo 4 Making ―Satarangi‖ is one of the best ways to generate income

at household level even in disaster time

(Picture taken from Panchagarh District)

Photo 5 Planting local three species (especially fruit) alongside the road will not only ensure asset but also provide minimum level of nutrition at household level

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