11

Adapting to water scarcity for Adapting to water scarcity for Yemen's vulnerability Yemen's vulnerability

communities:communities:The case studies of SanaThe case studies of Sana ’’a, a, SadahSadah

and Adenand Aden

AbdullaAbdulla NoamanNoaman

Water Environmental Center Water Environmental Center

SanaSana’’a University, Yemena University, Yemen

22

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

�� This research is funded through (NCAP)This research is funded through (NCAP)

�� Administered through ETC International Administered through ETC International

�� Executing Agency is Environmental Executing Agency is Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) Yemen.Protection Authority (EPA) Yemen.

�� Case studies under this project conducted Case studies under this project conducted by WEC in Sanaby WEC in Sana’’a universitya university

�� International technical backstopping is International technical backstopping is provided by SEI provided by SEI

33

Background Background �� Water scarcity is the main Water scarcity is the main

environmental problem in environmental problem in YemenYemen

�� Varied climate and variable Varied climate and variable annual rainfall (less than annual rainfall (less than 50mm to near 600 mm). 50mm to near 600 mm).

�� Groundwater is the main Groundwater is the main source for domestic uses & source for domestic uses & for the growing irrigated for the growing irrigated farming which uses more farming which uses more than 90% of the annual than 90% of the annual abstraction.abstraction.

�� This problem is getting worse This problem is getting worse due to climate changes due to climate changes resulting in less rainfall and resulting in less rainfall and increase temperatureincrease temperature

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Concentration of population in Yemen and Rainfall Concentration of population in Yemen and Rainfall distributiondistribution

55

Time change of cultivated areas in different farming system

Time Change of Cultivated Areas in Different Farming Systems

0

20

40

60

80

100

1975 1983 1990 1995 2000

Year

%

Rain fed Flood’s Spring’s Groundwater

66

ObjectivesObjectives�� Evaluation of current and future vulnerability of water Evaluation of current and future vulnerability of water

resources to climate change,resources to climate change,

�� Identification of a comprehensive set of adaptation Identification of a comprehensive set of adaptation strategies that address water scarcity in vulnerable strategies that address water scarcity in vulnerable communities,communities,

�� Revise the proposed set of adaptation strategies based Revise the proposed set of adaptation strategies based on stakeholder consultationson stakeholder consultations

�� Implement one adaptation measure identified in the Implement one adaptation measure identified in the analysis at the pilot scale within the case study areaanalysis at the pilot scale within the case study area

�� Identify a comprehensive set of changes to existing Identify a comprehensive set of changes to existing policies and laws to facilitate adaptation to climate policies and laws to facilitate adaptation to climate changechange--induced water scarcity induced water scarcity

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Approaches and MethodologyApproaches and Methodology

�� Data collection from different authorities and Data collection from different authorities and related ministriesrelated ministries

�� Rapid appraisal for participatory assessments Rapid appraisal for participatory assessments among stakeholders. among stakeholders.

�� WEAP water modeling to evaluate water needs WEAP water modeling to evaluate water needs and scarcity among all sectors under a range of and scarcity among all sectors under a range of potential climate change scenarios. potential climate change scenarios.

�� Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) to identify a set of Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) to identify a set of adaptation measures adaptation measures

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Case studies locationsCase studies locations

Case study 1 (highly urban area, Sana'a)

Case study 2 (coastal urban area, Aden)

Case study 3 (rural highland area, Sadah)

Three case study areas were selected based on:Three case study areas were selected based on:representing a different ecological zone representing a different ecological zone Water scarcity problemsWater scarcity problems

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Case study 1 (Sana'a Basin)

1010

Heritage signification

1111

Urban area expansion in SanaUrban area expansion in Sana’’a a basinbasin

1212

Background cont..Background cont..

�� Results: Results:

�� rapidly depleting aquifers and more frequent water conflicts duerapidly depleting aquifers and more frequent water conflicts due to to growing competition for water.growing competition for water.

GW abstraction in Sana'a basin

0

50

100

150

200

250

3001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Milli

on c

ubic

met

er

GWL Recharge to the GW GW abstraction

1313

Rainfall trendRainfall trend

050

100

150200250

300350400

450500

rain

fall

(mm

1932 1940 1944 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1985 1997

years

Sana'a Airport

1414

The WEAP model of the Sana’a basin…

The schematic view of the Sana’a basin application in WEAP. There are 22 sub basins represented and 6 aquifer nodes. Each sub basin’s demand nodes link to the appropriate groundwater node.

1515

Sub-structure of each sub-basin…

1616

The headflow/rainfed catchment nodes…

1717

The irrigated area catchment nodes…

1818

Simulation of hydrologic processes in the catchment s…

1919

The reference scenarios is not able to create sustainable use of the all demand sites….

2020

Scenarios explore 6 different adaptation strategies …

2121

Replacing Qat with wheat production….

2222

Qat (Cathula edulis) has become a very large part of the economy - some estimate as much as 25% of GDP, 16% of employment and 30% of water use.

2323

Differences in crop coefficients are the driver of this scenario….

In this scenario, the monthly crop coefficient valu es for wheat versus qat are the key variables that drive the difference in water demand

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Yearly water demand for Qat versus wheat in Wadi A Si r….

2525

Replacing Qat with wheat results in less GW drawdown ….

2626

Any one of the strategies alone is not enough to cr eate sustainable use of the Central Plains aquifer….

2727

…..and for all aquifers

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But when the effects of scenarios are added via ‘inheritance’… .

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Adding effects of strategies approaches sustainabil ity for Central Plains aquifer….

3030

Possible future climate scenarios also analyzed….

‘OSU Core’ climate scenario is expected climate change: +2 degrees CAnd +5% rainfall by 2050

‘UKHI dry’ climate scenario is worst case climate change: +2 degrees CAnd -20% rainfall by 2050

3131

Hydrology model in WEAP explicitly simulates climate effects on crop water demands….

3232

Climate has only small effect on groundwater volume ….

3333

Consultations with Farmers and Consultations with Farmers and Decisions makersDecisions makers

The main aim was to discuss their concerns regardin g issues of water scarcity as well as to assess their willingness to participate and be committed in implementing the project activities (a dapted strategy).

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Consultations with Farmers and Consultations with Farmers and stakeholders meetingsstakeholders meetings

All Information collected through interview will en tered, processed and analyzed by MCA program in accordance with the obje ctives specified.

3535

Meeting with decision makersMeeting with decision makers

3636

Identify a set of adaptation Identify a set of adaptation measures using MCAmeasures using MCA

3737

proposed location of check dam in proposed location of check dam in WadiWadi

AsserAsser

Implement one adaptation Implement one adaptation measuremeasure

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Adaptation Adaptation (Traditional Water Harvesting (Traditional Water Harvesting

Techniques)Techniques)

�� TerracesTerraces�� CisternsCisterns

3939

Terraces after the rainfall

4040

4141

Traditional ponds and cisternsTraditional ponds and cisterns

4242

Traditional CisternsTraditional Cisterns

Source: SFD

greater capacity greater capacity upward and easy access, upward and easy access, Local material Local material sediment trapsediment trap

4343

Traditional subsurface cisterns in rural areas

Source: SFD

4444

Underground reservoir in mountainous area

Source: SFD

4545

4646

4747

4848

4949

ConclusionConclusion

�� Increase knowledge and information on Increase knowledge and information on the vulnerability of the water resourcesthe vulnerability of the water resources

�� The need to emphasize awareness among The need to emphasize awareness among stakeholders and decision makersstakeholders and decision makers

�� Mainstreaming Climate Change in all Mainstreaming Climate Change in all governmental development plans and governmental development plans and programsprograms

�� Special program on the issues of Climate Special program on the issues of Climate Change in various governmental offices Change in various governmental offices

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Thanks NCAP,ETC and Thanks NCAP,ETC and SEI staffs for the program SEI staffs for the program and regular assistancesand regular assistances

AbdullaAbdulla NoamanNoamanWater and Environment Center (WEC)Water and Environment Center (WEC)

WWW.wec.edu.yeWWW.wec.edu.yewec@y.net.yewec@y.net.ye