Vulnerability and Adapting to Climate ChangeIntroduction workshop on National Adaptation Plan Process Ha Noi, 1-2 December, 2016

Climate change decision making is not always easy

Three key terms Hazard: Is it raining? (Or too dry, or windy etc) The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced

physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. (IPCC, 2012 page 32).

Exposure: Am I getting wet? The presence (location) of people, livelihoods,

environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by physical events and which, thereby, are subject to potential future harm, loss, or damage (IPCC, 2012 page 32).

Vulnerability: Am I able to stop myself getting wet?

Propensity of exposed elements such as human beings, their livelihoods, and assets to suffer adverse effects when impacted by hazard events. (IPCC, 2012 page 69)

Examples of factors that increase vulnerability and exposure risk…

Vulnerability Exposure

Poverty (less able to afford to cope)

Living in a mountainous or coastal area (more exposed to flash-floods/ landslides or sea level rise)

Physical disability Unpaved roads Gender (due to gender roles women often have less coping capacity and have increased workloads)

Aging infrastructure not build to withstand increased hazard risk

Age (the young and elderly are more exposed)

Inadequate housing (bamboo or thin metal roof)

NAP country-level training

Examples of Gender impacts of climate change

01/05/2023

Evidence of higher time,

work and stress

burdens for women than

men

Men migrating to find work

increases stress and risk for

female partners left behind.

Disasters and deforestation disrupt water supply and

undermine food security

Climate change increases labour requirement in

agricultureDisasters and

climate-related disease

incidence means women’s

caregiving demands are

higher

Climate change can create fear

and drive resurgence of conservative

and discriminatory social values

Source: UNDP, 2015

Approaches for addressing gender equality and women’s empowerment

01/05/2023NAP country-level training

Undertake gender

analysis

Sex-disaggregated data

Harness women as agents of change at all levels

Tailor NAP activities

Monitor, report evaluate on gender in NAP

Source: UNFCCC 2015 IUCN, 2011

Climate change intensifies all elements risk.

So action now is essential

Future climate change impacts on the water cycle (FAO 2015)

• Add graphics

• Higher risk extreme rainfall events (eg: changing hydrometric calculations)

• Higher risk of landslides, flash flooding and potentially stronger typhoons

• Higher risk of drought and water stress

• More variability and uncertainty• Sea level rise, saline water intrusion,

ocean acidification• Knock-on impacts across all sectors

What does this mean for Viet Nam?

Disasters hold back development, and climate change will make this worse

The risk to social progress, stability and economic development

Vulnerability in the 2015-2016 Viet Nam drought

Source: UNDP analysis of CCNDPC damage and loss data

Poverty rate

Damage (share of GDP)

Higher losses are more likely to come with poorer provinces

Khánh Hoà

Ninh Thuận

Bình Thuận

Kon Tum

Gia Lai

Ðắk Lắk

Ðắk Nông

Lâm Ðồng

Bình Phước

Tây Ninh

Long An

Tiền Gian

g

Bến Tr

e

Trà Vinh

Vĩnh Long

Kiên Gian

g

Hậu Gian

g

Sóc T

rãng

Bạc Liê

u

Cà Mau

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Total economic loss as share of GDP Multi-dimensional poverty rate

% GDP Multidimensional poverty rate

• World Bank (2010): Climate change adaptation in developing countries will cost $75 billion–$100 billion a year over the period 2010–2050. The infrastructure sector alone represents an estimated $15 billion–$30 billion a year over the same period.

• Viet Nam INDC (2015): The cost of adaptation is estimated to exceed 3-5% of GDP by 2030.

• Climate change makes current investments less effective and makes achieving development targets more difficult.

Climate change impacts on the global economy/ development

Early, proactive climate change adaptation is essential

IPCC: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

UNFCCC: actions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climate condition.

UNDP: process by which strategies to moderate, cope with and take advantage of the consequences of climatic events are enhanced, developed, and implemented.

Some actions to fast track adaptation:

Invest in understanding and applying the best available climate science sensibly

Build adaptation vulnerability analysis into Government planning cycles

Develop high-quality tools to that can be easily applied at local and national levels by non-experts

Build local capacity among climate change experts and government officials

Measure changes in vulnerability and exposure to invest in scaling up and replicating effective solutions

Mainstreaming adaptation into policy, planning and investment decision making:

Climate change adaptation needs to be considered at each step of the annual budget planning cycle to take into account climate vulnerability at each step of the SEDP planning cycle

Upgrade systems and codes to take into account current climate change science

Current cycle for infrastructure planning of rural irrigation, rural water and local roads and in Viet Nam (UNDP-GEF SRRP Project 2015)

2. Investment preparation

1. Master planning

3-Construction Design

4 – Construction

5 – Operation & Maintenance

6. Proposal for rehabilitation/

upgrading

Monitoring & Evaluation

Key questions for adaptation:

Where should be prioritized?

What kind of infrastructure or sectors are most

vulnerable and where is it?

Is upgrading this infrastructure or sector a good investment and how

much more do I need to do?

Regional climate change vulnerability maps

GIS mapping of infrastructure, impacts and vulnerability

within provinces

Basic economic analysis tools, and local level

checklists to help planners factor in climate change

impacts.

Example of integrated risk mapping in Viet Nam:Infrastructure vulnerability to climate change mapped in 15 provinces

Interactive-database will be launched within 2016.

Integrated vulnerability of irrigation work in the 15 NW Provinces - 2015

Inter-active database: Land-use plus vulnerability of irrigation, embankment and road construction (Hoa Binh City, 1:50,000)

Adaptation options exist

Understand the costs of various adaptation options:

Adaptation Premium OptionsHIGHBig difference between conventional and upgraded climate change resilient investment costs.

Consider employing bio-engineering approach to lower costs (and invest in maintenance)

Delay investment Increase finance available

LOWSmall difference between conventional and upgraded standard to take into account climate change impacts

Invest now in resilience measures

Capacity development and communications

Invest in capacity development at all levels

Government employees need to be aware of climate risk, but so do communities, vulnerable groups and the private sector

Community based disaster risk management programmes are now being adjusted to take into account climate change

Viet Nam’s Paris implementation plan correctly stresses technology transfers and capacity development

But its also important to understand the limits of adaptation and that long term loss and damage is also a risk.

MONRE estimates suggest that the average temperature will increase by 2-3 degrees Celsius, and sea levels will rise 57-73 centimetres by 2100. As a result, 39% of the Mekong Delta area, 10% of the Red River Delta, 2.5% of the coastal localities, 20% of HCMC and 4% of the traffic system will be submerged under water.

To sum up:

Proactive adaptation is necessary for future sustainable development

Quality data for hazards and future climate change, but also exposure and vulnerability is important

Inclusion of vulnerable groups and gender mainstreaming is essential

Good practice exists in Viet Nam and globally, but needs replicated and scaled-up.

Estimating costs and benefits can help prioritise actions and timeframes and to better understand the limits of adaptation.

Thank you for your attentionContact: www.undp.org/vn jenty.kirsch-wood@undp.org