the scientific method observation theory hypothesis test making it public peer review replication

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The Scientific Method • Observation • Theory • Hypothesis • Test • Making it public • Peer review • Replication

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Page 1: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

The Scientific Method

• Observation

• Theory

• Hypothesis

• Test

• Making it public• Peer review• Replication

Page 2: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Experimental Research

• Why do experiments?• The problem of causation

Page 3: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Showing Causality

• Experiment• Experimental group and control group• Random assignment to groups• Independent variable• Dependent variable• Differences?

Page 4: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Variables

• Independent• What you think CAUSES the Dependent

Variable to change• Independent bc RESEARCHER controls it

• Dependent• What you think will BE CHANGED by

changes in the Independent Variable• Dependent bc IV controls it

Page 5: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Variables

Arrow of causality

IV DV

Page 6: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Another Variable

• Confounding variables• The ones that confuse things• The ones that MIGHT interfere in the

causal relationship between IV and DV, OR might just look like they do

• Also known as intervening variables

Page 7: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Experimental and Control Groups

• The experimental group gets the level of the INDEPENDENT VARIABLE that you think will CAUSE a CHANGE

• The control group gets the USUAL level of the IV, where you would expect NO CHANGE

Page 8: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Experimental and Control Groups

• Examples• EG gets new medication, CG gets placebo• EG gets new medication, CG gets standard

current medication• EG gets new therapy, CG gets old therapy• EG gets new therapy, CG gets wait list• EG gets new sales pitch, CG gets old one• EG gets new interview, CG gets old one

Page 9: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

EG and CG, cont.

• How do you know it’s the level of the IV that made the difference?• Try to make EG and CG as similar as

possible.• Random assignment.• Assignment with matching.• (what are the sources of confounding

effects in these designs?? Interaction between the matched pairs).

Page 10: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Sampling

• We can’t measure or test everybody.• Take a sample.• A RANDOM sample is more likely to

accurately reflect the population, and less likely to bias the results.

• A bigger sample is better … to a point.• Our sample may not be an accurate

representation of the population anyway.• Stats can help.

Page 11: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Statistics

• Results from control group

• Results from experimental group

• How to know if the difference is chance or a “real” difference?

• Math can help.

Page 12: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Researcher Bias

• Hypothesis – we all like to be right (and some of us get paid to be right).

• Double-blind

Page 13: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Quasi-Experimental Designs

• When you cannot randomly assign participants to EG and CG, but you CAN control the IV.• Ex. Do boys respond better than girls to a

new strategy for teaching math?• (4 groups; B CG, B EG, G CG, G EG)

• Can suggest a causal relationship.

Page 14: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Quasi-Experimental Designs

• Ex-post-facto designs: you cannot control the IV • Ex; do smokers or non-smokers have more

fires in their homes?

CANNOT ESTABLISH A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP

Page 15: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

For next class

• Bring a MAGAZINE of ANY kind

Page 16: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

Designing an Experiment

• Group of two - Exercise; 3.3%

Page 17: The Scientific Method Observation Theory Hypothesis Test Making it public Peer review Replication

An Exercise on Variables

• Group of 3 or 4 people

• Likely to work together all semester

• Know each other well enough to make groups on your own, or shall I assign?