THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE POLICY

Mitigation System

National Climate Change Response Policy

26 May 2015

Overview

Greenhouse Gas Inventory MPA summary Mitigation System Supporting Projects

GHGI – Energy as proportion of overall emissions

Power Generation48%

SASOL6%

PetroSA0%Auto-Producers

1%

Manufac + Cons28%

Road Transport9%

Civil Aviation1%

Railway0%

Residential4%

Commercial2%

Agric/Fishing1% Other

0%

Energy - 2009

South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas

Mitigation Potential Analysis

South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas

Mitigation Potential Analysis

Mitigation Potential Analysis - Objectives

1. Project national greenhouse gas emissions into future

2.Identify and analyse mitigation opportunities and present marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), showing costs and greatest technical potential for emissions reduction from different technologies

3. Assess the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the identified mitigation options; multi criteria analysis

4. Develop emission reduction pathways

5

Subsectors

Energy Industry Transport Waste AFOLU

•Electricity

•Petroleum refining

•Other energy industries

•Coal mining

•Oil and natural gas

• Aluminium production

•Iron and steel

•Ferroalloy

•Chemicals

•Pulp and paper

•Cement

•Lime

•Commercial building

•Residential building

•Mining other than coal

•Aviation

•Road transport

•Rail

•Municipal waste AFOLU

MITIGATION

POTENTIAL

PROGRESS TO DATE cont...

Mitigation (emission reduction): overall approach Assess mitigation potential and define desired emission reduction

outcomes; Use of a mix of mitigation policies and measures, including using the

market (Carbon Tax); Formulation of mitigation plans for sectors and sub-sectors, and

monitoring and evaluation.

South Africa’s GHG Mitigation Potential Analysis Comprehensive analysis of mitigation potential of key economic sectors

(Energy, Industry, Transport, Waste, Agriculture, Forestry and Land use (AFOLU);

The last comprehensive modelling to develop mitigation scenarios in the South African economy was the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios(LTMS).

8SECRET

SUBSECTORS

ENERGY INDUSTRY TRANSPORT WASTE AFOLU

•Electricity

•Petroleum refining

•Other energy industries

•Coal mining

•Oil and natural gas

• Aluminium production

•Iron and steel

•Ferroalloy

•Chemicals

•Pulp and paper

•Cement

•Lime

•Commercial building

•Residential building

•Mining other than coal

•Aviation

•Road transport

•Rail

•Municipal waste AFOLU

9SECRET

SOUTH AFRICA'S GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION POTENTIAL ANALYSIS - OBJECTIVES

• Project national greenhouse gas emissions into future;• Identify and analyse mitigation opportunities and present

marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), showing costs and greatest technical potential for emissions reduction from different technologies;

• Assess the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the identified mitigation options; multi criteria analysis;

• Develop emission reduction pathways Set of reduction trajectories over time, which is technologically

achievable; Pathway merely identifies what is technically possible without

providing a detailed description of how that outcome would be achieved.

10SECRET

PROJECTING GHG EMISSIONS

• “Bottom up” approach: models constructed for each subsector;• The projection uses historic emissions from the Draft Greenhouse Gas Inventory

(GHGI) update (2010): Fuel activity data from GHGI; Electricity consumption data from DoE Energy Balances; Emission sources which are not included in the current GHGI were not

included in projections due to a lack of data; GDP growth assumptions tied to the National Development Plan (moderate

growth to 2050 = 4.2%); Sensitivity analysis based on low growth (3.8%) & high growth (5.4%).

• Reference Case: 2000 – 2050: assumes no mitigation: “Without Measures” (WOM): 556 MtCO2e in 2010, reaching 906 MtCO2e by

2030, and 1,695 MtCO2e by 2050; “With Existing Measures” (WEM) - impacts of existing policy (e.g. IRP 2010)

and measures; 27 MtCO2e lower in 2010; 102 MtCO2e lower in 2050.11SECRET

EMISSIONS PROJECTION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

National GHG emissions under the reference case WEM projection, showing high and low growth compared to medium growth

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

Mt

CO

2 e

Waste

AFOLU

Transport

Industry

Energy

Highgrowth

Lowgrowth

12SECRET

COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS – MACC 2020

• All measures represent savings• Construction of passive buildings

with improved thermal design offers the largest single mitigation potential with the lowest marginal abatement cost

13SECRET

Power Sector

MACC 2030

•The total potential abatement for 2030 (137 MtCO2e), and the largest part of this is delivered by nuclear energy (53 MtCO2e) followed by coal power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) (8MtCO2e)

NATIONAL

National MACC 2020

•The MACC illustrates that 37.8% of the total mitigation estimate for 2020 (39.7 MtCO2e) can be achieved through implementing mitigation measures with a negative marginal abatement cost

Towards a national mitigation systemTowards a national mitigation system

Elements of the mitigation system

Carbon Budget Pollution Prevention Plans (Mitigation Plans) Carbon Tax Monitoring and Evaluation

Carbon Budgets

Means of regulating emission of greenhouse gases Greenhouse gas emission allowance Cbudget system:

Budget for each companyReporting systemCompliance process

Phased approach:First phase will run from 2016 to 2020 (5 years)Second phase – 2021 onwards (5 year periods)

Supporting Projects

Mitigation technology plan: assess opportunities and barriers for the development and large-scale deployment of the key mitigation technologies - DST leading

National Employment vulnerability assessment: assess impact on jobs, by sector – EDD leading

Socio-economic impact: assess impact of mitigation work