ecosystem response to climate change
TRANSCRIPT
Ecosystem Response to Climate Change
Big question:
How is the place you care about
vulnerable to climate change?
Warmer Temperatures
Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)
• Temperature has increased 1.3°F to 1.9°F since 1895 in the US– Greater increases in the north
– Greater increases in recent decades
Altered Precipitation
Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA), glisa.umich.edu
• Changes variable by geography and season– More extreme rainfall events, especially in the east
Annual precipitation
Extreme precipitation
Sea-level Rise
• Sea level rose about 1 foot since 1900
• Increases in coastal flooding
Adapted from J. Boothroyd, Univ. of Rhode Island www.climate.gov/news-features/features/rhode-islands-rising-tide
Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge
Increased about 10”
over last 100 years
Other Observed Changes
Warmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010)
Altered Soil Temperature and Frost
Fewer soil frost days
Altered freeze-thaw cycles
Longer Growing Seasons
Arrive weeks earlierMore days with leaves
Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)
And Everything Else
Climate is not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it.
Shifley et al. 2014
Future Changes: Inherent Uncertainty
IPCC 2007, Graphic: C. Wake, Univ. New HampshireFigure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
Warmer Temperatures
• Temperature rises of 3.0°F and greater
– Greater increases in the north
– Greater increases with higher emissions
– More extreme hot
– Less extreme cold
Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
Annual Temperature
Altered precipitation
• Greater uncertainty
– Winter: wetter in northern regions
Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
Winter Precipitation
Altered precipitation
• Greater uncertainty
– Winter: wetter in northern regions
– Summer: uncertain, but potentially drier due to warmer temperatures
– More extreme events
Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
Summer Precipitation
Drier Conditions
Figures: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) and Wehner et al. 2011 (adapted for NCA)
Consecutive Dry Days
Extreme Drought
Sea-level Rise
• Continued increases of multiple feet
• Enhanced storm surge
Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast
Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/
Increased Carbon Dioxide
Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
Increased Carbon Dioxide
Opportunity: Increased productivity*
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
*Effect likely limited:
– Limited sink strength
– Interactions with nitrogen
– Ozone damage
– Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
Longer Growing Seasons
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Melillo et al. 2014 (NCA), Nelson Center 2014
Longer Growing Seasons
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality
• Early bud break/loss of cold hardening
• Frost damage during spring freezing
Shorter Winter = Less Snow
Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth
30-70% decreases in snowfall in eastern US by end of century
Figure: Notaro et al. 2014; https://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/
Low emissions High emissions
Shorter Winter = Less Snow
Challenge: Decreased snowpack
• Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps
• Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes
• Altered soil water recharge
Campbell et al. 2009, Groffman et al. Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015
Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain
Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain
Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount
• Earlier spring peak flows
• Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows
• Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow
Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer temps increase water loss
Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer temps increase water loss
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management
Climate Change Atlas:What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes?•134 Trees•147 Birds
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
Changes in Habitat Suitability2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
Current DistributionImportance
Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
Sugar Maple
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
Changes in Habitat Suitability2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
Current DistributionImportance
Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
White Oak
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
• Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future
• Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback
• Mature and established trees should fare better
• Immense lags to occupy habitats
• Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance
Extreme Events
Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events
• Heavy precipitation
• Ice storms
• Heat waves/droughts
• Wind storms
• Hurricanes
• “Events” are not well modeled
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,Cambridge Fire Dept.
Interactions: Wildfire
Clark et al. 2014
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential
Figure: K. Hayhoe 2013 (NCA)
Interactions: Wildfire
Fire may increase:• Warmer/drier summers• Increased stress or
mortality from less suitable conditions
• Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines
Fire may not change:• Spring/early summer moisture• Current regeneration of more
mesic species• Land use and fragmentation• Fire suppression
Clark et al. 2014
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential
Interactions: Insects and Disease
Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
• Pests migrating northward
• Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures
• Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007
Hemlock woolly adelgid lethal temp: -20 to -30°F
Challenge: Increased pests and forest diseases
Figure: NCA
Interactions: Invasive Plants
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success
Direct:
• Expanded ranges under warmer conditions
• Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants
Interactions: Unexpected Responses
Figure (white box): Northern Rockies Fire Science Network
Human actions
Effects on Ecosystems
Generally Challenges
• Reduced growth: moisture stress
• Decline of northern/boreal species
• Disturbance from extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
• Increased productivity: longer growing season
• Increased productivity: more CO2
• Increased habitat for some species
What would you add?