regis2: regional climate change impact & response studies regis2: regional climate change impact...
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RegIS2: Regional Climate RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Change
Impact & Response Studies Impact & Response Studies
http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm
Project duration- 1st September 2003 to 31st August 2005
Dr Ian HolmanInstitute of Water and Environment
Cranfield UniversitySilsoe
Bedford
OverviewOverview
Introduction to RegIS1
Recommendations for future IA’s
RegIS2- rationale and framework
RegIS2 Interface tool
Conclusions
RegIS- from sectoral assessment…..RegIS- from sectoral assessment…..
Most studies:
Climate change
Sector
Impact(effect) ??
……to Integrated Assessment?to Integrated Assessment?
MODELS &INTERACTIONS
INTEGRATEDASSESSMENT
AGRICULTURE Yields, profitability
& land use
COASTAL ZONESea level rise,
flooding & erosion
BIODIVERSITYEcosystems, species
& habitats
WATERquantity, quality
& flooding
SCENARIOSClimate and
socio-economicchange
GIS DATABASEModel inputs &
outputs, landscapecharacteristics
STAKEHOLDERS
RegIS: RegRegIS: Regional Climate Change ional Climate Change IImpact & Response mpact & Response SStudiestudies
1st integrated assessment of climate change in UK
Considered socio-economic and climate change
4 sectors- coasts, agriculture, water & biodiversity
Interactions between sectors through linked models
Two contrasting regions- North West & East Anglia
5 km x 5 km
http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/
Example results from RegIS1Example results from RegIS1Flooding Agriculture
Scenarios
Recharge + run-off
Hydrology & groundwater resources
Biodiversity
RegIS1• Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’• >1Gb of model output per run• Questions identified by RegIS team• Model application by RegIS team• But still successful!
Recommendations following RegISRecommendations following RegIS
Included (fully or partially) in RegIS2
Not included in RegIS2
Extreme weather events More sectors Uncertainty analysis Closer integration of user needs Twin-track modelling approach
National SE scenarios “Integrated scenarios” of change Continuous responses to changing circumstances Risk-based
Rationale behind RegIS2RegIS1• Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’• >1Gb of model output per run• Questions identified by RegIS team• Model application by RegIS team• But still successful!
RegIS2• Faster model run times• All models linked within an interface• Limited targeted model output• Questions identified by stakeholders• Model application by the stakeholders•…….
Key project objectives
1. To refine the RegIS risk assessment methodology into a form usable by Stakeholders;
2. To develop regional scenarios;3. To identify, with stakeholders, critical
impacts, interactions, adaptive responses, and interface design;
4. To develop a user friendly software tool, containing …scenarios,…the metamodels and the input data needed for Stakeholders to analyse impacts, interactions and adaptive responses.
Based on the DPSIR methodology: Drivers-Pressure-State-Impacts-ResponseDeveloped for planning sustainable development Used successfully within the RegIS
Methodological Framework
Allows facilitate explicit investigation of the interactions between:
the driving forces of environmental and climate change (drivers-pressure); the sensitivity of impact indicators (state-impacts) and; stakeholder adaptive strategies (responses).
DPSIR within RegIS2DPSIR within RegIS2Drivers: the underlying exogenous causes of change,
e.g. climate/socio-economic change, national policy. qualitative, narrative storylines, e.g. SRES
Pressure: the variables that quantify drivers e.g. regional population, precipitation, etc.
regional, quantitative scenarios.State: variables that represent the sensitivity of the
system to the pressure variables, e.g. river flows etc meta-models to derive state variables
Impact: a measure of whether the changes in the state variables have a negative or positive effect
derive impact indicators and translate these into impact classes reflecting value judgements.
Response: planned (societal level) adaptation that acts on the socio-economic pressure variables
use REGIS2 interface
Drivers(storylines)
Pressures(scenarios)
State(metamodels)
Impact(indicators)
Response(user options)
Plannedadaptation
Autonomousadaptation(feedbacks)
REGIS2 IAM(based on DPSIR)
Simplified representation of RegIS2Simplified representation of RegIS2
Biodiversity
Rural land use
Water resources
Urban developmentpatterns
Flooding
Coastal model
Fluvial flood model
High river flows
Water demand
Water Availability
STATE / IMPACT
SES scenarios
Climate variables
SE variables
Climate scenario
s
DRIVERSPRESSURES
RESPONSES
Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses
Sensitivity, uncertainty and
adaptive responses analyses
RegIS2 InterfaceRegIS2 Interface
User friendly
intuitive
Robust
Fast run times
Allow investigation of adaptive responses, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
The intention:
The reality……….
Conclusions
• RegIS represented a significant step in local IA
• RegIS2 will not do everything!
• RegIS2 will build upon, and improve, on RegIS
• The RegIS2 tool will (hopefully) be used to explore our uncertain (climate and socio-economic) futures
RegIS2: Regional Climate RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Change
Impact & Response Studies Impact & Response Studies
http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm
Dr Ian HolmanInstitute of Water and Environment
Cranfield UniversitySilsoe
Bedford