IoT future shock: Too much change too fast?

Lee Rainie

Director, Internet, Science, and Technology Research

May 10, 2017

ABA: Science and Technology Law

The IoT rollout

BODIES (CYBORGS)

ME TRACKERS & DIAGNOSERS

INSTANT INTELLIGENCE ONOTHERS & STUFF

REMOTECONTROLLERS

REMINDERS ANDARCHIVING

EXTRA BRAIN LOBE & PAIROF HANDS

Implantable

s

HOMESHOMES

SMART SYSTEMS

FINDABLE ITEMS

WARNING

SERVICES

ANTICIPATORY & MEDIA DELIVERY

SURFACES

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

MORE EFFICIENT & CHEAPER SERVICES

TRANSPORTATION

& PARKING

POLLUTION

CROWDSOURCED

INTELLIGENCE

ENVIRONMENT

CLIMATE & POLLUTION

MONITOR EARTH

SYSTEMS

TRACK WILDLIFE & HABITAT

INFRASTRUCTURE

WARNING SYSTEMS

& WEAR AND TEAR

INDUSTRY

MAINTAIN/REPAIR

SUPPLY CHAIN

CONTROL (RETAIL

ANALYTICS

MONITORING / MAINTAINING

ASSETS

QUALITY CONTROL

Why this matters

“Earth will don an electric skin” – Neil Gross, 1999

“In the next century, planet Earth will don an electronic

skin. It will use the internet as a scaffold to support

and transmit its sensations. This skin is already

being stitched together. It consists of millions of

embedded electronic measuring devices:

thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors,

cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs,

electroencephalographs. These will probe and

monitor cities and endangered species, the

atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of

trucks, our conversations, our bodies--even our

dreams."

Estimates: Your mileage may vary

• IDC forecasts that by this year 60% of global manufacturers will use

analytics to sense and analyze data from connected goods/services and

soon yield 15% productivity improvements.

• IHS Economics forecasts IoT market will grow to 75.4 billion connections by

2025.

• Boston Consulting estimates that by 2020, $267 billion will be spent on IoT

technologies, products and services. Uses” predictive maintenance, self-

optimizing production, automated inventory management, remote patient

monitoring, smart meters, distributed generation and storage, fleet

management and demand response.

• General Electric estimates the Industrial IoT has potential to generate

revenues of up to $11.1 trillion on an annual basis by 2025 - $60 trillion will

be invested in next 15 years.

• Cisco says connected-home machine-to-machine connections will triple

online traffic by 2020. It also projects that the number of attacks online will

Dyn attack via Murai botnet – October 21, 2016

Exploits

Printers

Refrigerators

Web cams

Smart TVs

CCTV

DVRs

IP cameras

Resident gateways

Baby monitors

Light bulbs

+more

Victims

Amazon

Netflix

Target

PayPal

NY Times

Wall Street Journal

Twitter

CNN

Comcast / Verizon

Zillow

+scores more

People’s cybersecurity experiences and

knowledge

A big problem

41

35

16

15

14

13

6

64

Noticed fraudulent charges on their credit card

Received a notice that personal information had been

compromised

Had their social media account taken over without

permission

Had their email account taken over without permission

Received notice their social security number was compromised

Had a loan or line of credit taken out in their name

Had a tax refund taken out in their name

Any of these

How confident these entities can protect your data?

How people keep track of their passwords

Not best practices

• 41% of online adults have shared the password to one of their online accounts with a friend or family member.

• 39% say that they use the same (or very similar) passwords for many of their online accounts.

• 25% admit that they often use passwords that are less secure than they’d like, because simpler passwords are easier to remember than more complex ones.

• 28% of smartphone owners do not use screen locks

• 54% use public Wi-Fi networks for sensitive activities like e-commerce and banking

Knowledge – Tier 1

Knowledge – Tier 2

Incorrect Correct Not sure

Knowledge – Tier 3

Incorrect Correct Not sure

Knowledge – Tier 4

Incorrect Correct Not sure

Demographics

• Broad differences in knowledge by educational

attainment, especially concerning gap between

those who ended education at high school and those

who have college+ degrees

• Modest differences in knowledge by age• Private browsing

• GPS function

• Multi-factor authentication

• Botnet

• Public Wi-Fi not always safe

Pew Research Center – Imagining the Internet Center (Elon University)

November 25–January 13, 2014

2,551 respondents

19% research scientist

10% authors, editors, journalists

9% entrepreneurs, biz leader

8% tech developers

8% activists

7% futurists, consultants

2% legislators, lawyers

2% pioneers

What’s ahead

Digital Life in 2025

The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s

lives for good and ill

Bright sides

Theme 1) Information sharing over the Internet will

be effortlessly interwoven into daily life making

us smarter, safer, more efficient. ‘Computication’

involving ‘smart agents’ will be commonplace.

Theme 2) Artificial intelligence, augmented reality,

wearable devices, and big data will make people

more aware of their world and their own behavior

– which will especially aid in health care.

Theme 3) Social and business encounters will be shaped

by virtual reality and telepresence. Interfaces with data

and objects will change and become easier. Speech and

gesture interaction will matter more

Theme 4) The environment and structures themselves will

become ‘intelligent’ and expand our knowledge about

them – plus, enable their own ‘maintenance’ and ‘repairs’

Dark sides

Theme 1) Privacy will be more at risk and

something perhaps only the

privileged will enjoy.

Theme 2) The nature of work will change in

unprecedented ways as robots and artificial

intelligence assume greater roles in job

functions

Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves

and have-nots may expand, resulting in

resentment and possible violence.

Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and

scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing. Those pursuing

crime, laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity,

pornography, and dirty tricks have new capacity to

make life miserable for others.

Theme 5) Humans and their organizations

may not respond quickly enough to

challenges presented by complex networks.

July 1 – August 12, 2016

1,201 respondents

25% research scientist

14% tech developers

10% activists

9% futurists, consultants

8% authors, editors, journalists

7% entrepreneurs, biz leader

2% legislators, lawyers

2% pioneers

New findings – Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center

As billions more everyday objects are connected in the Internet of Things they are sending and receiving data that enhances local,

national and global systems as well as individuals’ lives. But such connectedness also creates exploitable vulnerabilities. As

automobiles, medical devices, smart TVs, manufacturing equipment and other tools and infrastructure are networked, is it likely that

attacks, hacks, or ransomware concerns in the next decade will cause significant numbers of people to decide to disconnect, or will the

trend towards greater connectivity of objects and people continue unabated?

15% “more will disconnect”

85% “connection will continue unabated”

Six themes

1) People crave connection and convenience, and a tech-linked world serves

both goals well

2) Unplugging is nearly impossible now; by 2026 it will be even more

tougher

3) Risk is part of life. The IoT will be accepted despite dangers because most

people believe the worst-case scenario would never happen to them

4) Human ingenuity and risk-mitigation strategies will make the IoT safer

-----

5) Notable numbers will disconnect

6) Whether or not people disconnect, the dangers are real. Security and

privacy issues will be magnified to a great degree by the rapid rise of the

Internet of Things

Fear not