the future of american communities: outlook to...
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The Future of American Communities: Outlook to
2050
The Future of American Communities: Outlook to
2050RMLUI Land Use Conference
Denver Colorado, March 4, 2010
Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Distinguished Presidential Fellow, Chapman University
RMLUI Land Use ConferenceDenver Colorado, March 4, 2010
Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Distinguished Presidential Fellow, Chapman University
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Long Term FundamentalsLong Term Fundamentals• U.S. has healthier
long-term demographics than most competitors
• U.S. only advanced country with large, growing population
• Economic system most resilient among advanced countries
• Back to basics with family and community
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UN World Population Prospects, 2008 rev
Declining Global Population RateDeclining Global Population Rate
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0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050
More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050
Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
U.S.JapanCanadaU.K.KoreaChinaAustraliaGermany
2020 2050
Getting Older SlowerGetting Older SlowerPopulation Over 65
Source: CIA
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Labor Force GrowthLabor Force Growth
U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
UnitedStates
Canada Australia Germany UnitedKingdom
China India SouthKorea
Arable Land (thousand hectares)
Room to GrowTotal Arable Land
Room to GrowTotal Arable Land
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U.S. Land UseU.S. Land Use
USDA ERS
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50%50%
Built Before 2000 Built After 2000Northeast Midwest West South Total
6.4
25.7
58.9In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop
will have been built after 2000.
In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop
will have been built after 2000.
Source: Toward a New Metropolis: The Opportunity to Rebuild America, p.v
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Inside America: Where Are We Headed?
Inside America: Where Are We Headed?
• Suburban dominance will continue
• America: The Multi-racial superpower
• Continued shift of people to “regions of opportunity”, including Colorado
• Millenials, family and new localism
• Building future communities
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Praxis Strategy Group Analysis ofU.S. Census Population Estimates
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“The Next Slum” –Chris Leinberger, the Atlantic, March 2008
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“If suburban life is undesirable, the suburbanites themselves seem blissfully unaware of it.”
- Herbert Gans on suburbs and their critics
Photo: Wootang01
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Source: Homeownership and Association Living: HOA Members and Homeowners Nationwide , Zogby International, Foundation for Community Association Research
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Source: National Survey on Communities conducted for Smart Growth America andNational Association of Realtors
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Single Family Detached
Home86%
Apartment4%
Attached Home
8%Other Dwelling
2%
What People Want: CaliforniaDreaming?What People Want: CaliforniaDreaming?
Public Policy Institute of California, 20002
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Millennials rival BoomersMillennials rival Boomers
U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008
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U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008
Millennials Entering Middle Millennials Entering Middle AgeAge
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Minorities to suburbsMinorities to suburbs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
All Races NH Whites All Minorities NH Blacks NH Asians Hispanics
1990 2000
Percentage of Population Residing In Suburbs by Race/Ethnicity 1990-2000
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The new face of The new face of diversitydiversity……
Welcome to Ft. Bend Welcome to Ft. Bend County, TexasCounty, Texas
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The Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American HistorThe Millennial Generation is the Most Diverse in American Historyy
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91
Percent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, APercent of U.S. Population That Is African American, Hispanic, Asian Pacific Islander, American sian Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Other; By Age Indian, and Other; By Age –– December 2004December 2004
Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Dec. 2004
Echo Boomers
Generation X
Baby Boomers
Pre-Baby Boomers
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Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since 1990Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since 1990
Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia (2004)
Spending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions) 1990 Spending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions) 1990 –– 2004 with 2009 projections2004 with 2009 projections
$118
$222
$318
$363.2
$686.3
$723.1
$528.2
$992.3
$964.6
1990 2004 2009
African American
U.S. Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
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Shifting Ethnicity of LaborShifting Ethnicity of Labor
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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The Rise of the Suburban Economy
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Central Business District Employment Central Business District Employment ShareShare
Wendell Cox, Demographia analysis
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Portland Job Growth in Periphery
Source: Demographia.com, Derived from US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Portland Alliance data
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How is Denver Doing?
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Housing Price Declines, 2007Housing Price Declines, 2007--20092009
National Assoc. of RealtorsAnnual Averages for Metropolitan Areas
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Job Growth, 2000Job Growth, 2000--20092009
Praxis Strategy Group Analysis ofBLS CES data, Q4 2000 – Q4 2009
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Source: Praxis Strategy Group analysis of BLS QCEWPeriod is Jan‐June Avg. for each year, 2009 data is preliminaryBroomfield Co. uses year 2002 data for year 2001
Decentralizing JobsDecentralizing Jobs
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The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl”The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl”
• Housing near jobs• Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets• Provision of open space around the village core and
housing estates-• Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl
• Housing near jobs• Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets• Provision of open space around the village core and
housing estates-• Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl
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Redefining Sustainability:Humans Count Too
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Not the greatest concernNot the greatest concern……
Pew Research CenterJanuary 2009Percent rating each a “top priority”
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Recession hitting younger Recession hitting younger generationgeneration
13% of parents 13% of parents of grown of grown children report children report at least one at least one child returning child returning home in the home in the past yearpast year
Pew Research Center
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A Bleaker Shade of A Bleaker Shade of GreenGreen“I was once severely criticized for describing human beings as being the ‘AIDS of the Earth.’ I make no apologies for that statement.”Paul Watson, co founder Greenpeace
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What are human beings?
“the finest and most valuable creation of nature” - Maxim Gorky
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Declining MobilityDeclining MobilityShare of population changing residence
Pew Research Center
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Key to the New Localism
“a vocation of uniqueness.”
Martin Buber
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Families as History’s Bedrock
“…the good news from the recovered history of the family: This smallest and seemingly most fragile of institutions is proving itself to be mankind’s bedrock as well as its fault line .” --- historian Steven Ozment
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Millennials and the Millennials and the FamilyFamily
85% plan to get married85% plan to get married
77% probably or 77% probably or definitelydefinitelywant childrenwant children
Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007
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90% of people over fifty would rather stay put than move
‐ AARP
“They don’t want to move to Florida, and they want to stay close to the kids. What they are looking for is a funky suburban development – funky but safe.”
‐Washington‐area developer Jeff Lee.
Photo: Vlastula
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Coming Next: The Multi‐
generational Suburb
“Some of the basics of suburbs are there. Schools are important, but also people like the sense of place. But the basic amenities are children, grandchildren, where people go to church, where their work networks and friends are. Suburbia is going to be a melting pot, not just by race, but by ages and lifestyle.”
Randall Lewis, Lewis Development Company
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Between 2000 and 2007, the number of people over 65 living with adult children increased by more than 50
percent.
Staying Staying TogetherTogether
Ever more children and grandchildren serve as informal caregivers for their elderly relatives, while grandparents serve as mentors and watchful eyes over the young.
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Beyond elitism:Jane Jacobs on the
proper role of an urban economy
Beyond elitism:Jane Jacobs on the
proper role of an urban economy
“A metropolitan economy, if it is working well, is constantly
transforming many poor people into middle class people
...greenhorns into competent citizens... Cities don’t lure the
middle class, they create it”
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Arts and Culture: Cause or Result?Arts and Culture: Cause or Result?
• Great Cultural Centers generally rest upon commercial success
• Venice, Florence, Amsterdam, London, New York, Los Angeles all became cultural centers after developing an expanding economy and strong middle class
• Patrons of arts, not the public, key to development of cultural institutions from Macenas to the Medici, Carnegie and the Rockefellers of the 20th Century to today’s multi-billionaires
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Rethinking DensityRethinking Density
• Low/mid-density using proper design and landscaping may use less water and energy
• Reducing “heat islands” —overdense development in London and Los Angeles can lead to urban centers being 3°C higher than outlying areas
• Learning from ancient cities like Shiraz in how to design largely low-rise housing to maximize natural cooling and reduce evaporation
• Following employment growth, using telecom may be far more effective than imposing a draconian, market-unfriendly planning regime
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Source: University of South Australia Study
Doubts Over DensityDoubts Over Density
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Rise in TelecommutingRise in Telecommuting
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Green TelecommutingGreen Telecommuting
Everyone telecommuting 2 days per week savEveryone telecommuting 2 days per week sav1.35 billion gallons of gasoline1.35 billion gallons of gasoline26 billion pounds CO226 billion pounds CO2
Estimates from American Electronics Association& EPA
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Back to the Future: The Post-Industrial CityBack to the Future: The Post-Industrial CityIf the electronic cottage was to spread, a chain of consequences of great importance would flow through society. Many of these consequences would please the most ardent environmentalist or techno-rebel, while at the same time opening up new options for business entrepreneurship
— Alvin Toffler,The Third Wave
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19801980--2000: 2000: selfself--
employed employed individuals individuals expanded expanded tenfold tenfold to to
include include 16%16%of the of the
workforce.workforce.
20 Million 20 Million microenterprises microenterprises by 2006, by 2006, one for one for
every sixevery sixprivate sector private sector
workers. workers.
Growth in MicrobusinessGrowth in Microbusiness
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Decentralization Critical to AmericaDecentralization Critical to America
"These little republics would "These little republics would be the main strength of the be the main strength of the great one. We owe to them great one. We owe to them the vigor given the vigor given to our revolutionto our revolution……" "
‐‐‐‐ Thomas Jefferson to Thomas Jefferson to John Tyler, 1810.John Tyler, 1810.
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JOELKOTKIN.COMA vivid snapshot of America in 2050 focusing on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society—families, towns, neighborhoods, industries.
It is upon the success or failure of these communities that the American future rests.
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Questions and CommentQuestions and Comment