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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. Trends in Oil Supply and Demand Washington, D.C. October 20, 2005 Trends in Oil Supply and Demand Washington, D.C. October 20, 2005 Scott A. Nauman Corporate Planning Scott A. Nauman Corporate Planning This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. A View to 2030 A View to 2030 The Outlook for Energy The Outlook for Energy

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Page 1: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein

(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein

(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Trends in Oil Supply and DemandWashington, D.C.October 20, 2005

Trends in Oil Supply and DemandWashington, D.C.October 20, 2005

Scott A. NaumanCorporate Planning

Scott A. NaumanCorporate Planning

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein

(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein

(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

A View to 2030A View to 2030

The Outlook for EnergyThe Outlook for Energy

Page 2: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis

• Energy Outlook Buildup – Energy demand by countries and end use sectors– Total energy growth linked to economic drivers– Incorporates efficiency improvements– Fuel shares consider trends, economics, supply

• Oil & Gas supply outlook– Ultimate recoverable resources estimated– Production profiles modeled for key countries

• Outlook based on key assumptions– Growing population, improving living standards– Ongoing improvement in efficiency– Timely and adequate energy supplies– Technology advances for supply and demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

Energy Supply/DemandMBDOEMBDOE

Page 3: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Global Population - 80% in Developing AreasGlobal Population - 80% in Developing Areas

0.40.4

AfricaAfrica0.80.8

Middle EastMiddle East0.20.2

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian0.30.3

0.40.4

EuropeEurope0.60.6

Asia PacificAsia Pacific0.20.2

Asia PacificAsia Pacific3.23.2

Latin AmericaLatin America

North AmericaNorth America

WorldWorld6.0 B6.0 B

2000

2000 Non-OECDNon-OECD

OECDOECD

Source: World BankSource: World Bank

Page 4: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Global Population - 2030Global Population - 2030

Latin AmericaLatin America0.60.6

1.1%1.1%

AfricaAfrica1.31.3

1.7%1.7%

Middle EastMiddle East0.30.3

1.7%1.7%

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian0.30.3

- 0.2%- 0.2%

North AmericaNorth America0.50.5

0.8%0.8% EuropeEurope0.60.6

0.1%0.1%

Asia PacificAsia Pacific0.20.2

0.0%0.0%

Asia PacificAsia Pacific4.24.2

0.9%0.9%

WorldWorld8.0 B8.0 B

0.9% per year0.9% per year

2000

2000

2030

2030

Non-OECDNon-OECD

OECDOECD6.0 B6.0 B

Source: World BankSource: World Bank

Page 5: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Global GDP - 20% in Developing AreasGlobal GDP - 20% in Developing Areas

OECDOECD

WorldWorld$31.5 T ($2000)$31.5 T ($2000)

2000

2000

Non-OECDNon-OECD

$11.1$11.1

$1.5$1.5

EuropeEurope$8.9$8.9

Asia PacificAsia Pacific$5.7$5.7

AfricaAfrica$0.6$0.6

Middle EastMiddle East$0.6$0.6

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian$0.4$0.4

Asia PacificAsia Pacific$2.7$2.7North AmericaNorth America

Latin AmericaLatin America

Page 6: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Global GDP - 2030Global GDP - 2030

OECDOECD

WorldWorld$70.6 T ($2000)$70.6 T ($2000)

2.7% per year2.7% per year

2000

2000

2030

2030

Non-OECDNon-OECD

North AmericaNorth America

2.6%2.6%

$24.2$24.2

Latin AmericaLatin America

2.9%2.9%

$3.5$3.5

EuropeEurope

2.0%2.0%

$16.2$16.2

Asia PacificAsia Pacific

1.6%1.6%

$9.2$9.2

AfricaAfrica

3.4%3.4%

$1.6$1.6

Middle EastMiddle East

2.8%2.8%

$1.4$1.4

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian

4.0%4.0%

$1.2$1.2

Asia PacificAsia Pacific

5.4%5.4%

$13.3$13.3

$31.5$31.5

Page 7: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Energy Use - 50% in Developing CountriesEnergy Use - 50% in Developing Countries

5757

99 AfricaAfrica1111

Middle EastMiddle East1111

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian1818

EuropeEurope3737

Asia PacificAsia Pacific1717

WorldWorld205 MBDOE205 MBDOE

2000

2000

Non-OECDNon-OECD

OECDOECD

North AmericaNorth America

Latin AmericaLatin America

Asia PacificAsia Pacific4444

Page 8: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

North AmericaNorth America6868

0.6%0.6%

WorldWorld334 MBDOE334 MBDOE

1.6% per year1.6% per year

2000

2000

2030

2030

Non-OECDNon-OECD

Latin AmericaLatin America

2.2%2.2%

1818 AfricaAfrica

2.0%2.0%

1919

Middle EastMiddle East

1.9%1.9%

1919

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian

1.3%1.3%

2727

Asia PacificAsia Pacific

3.2%3.2%

113113

EuropeEurope4747

0.8%0.8%

Asia PacificAsia Pacific2323

0.9%0.9%

OECDOECD

Energy Use - 2030Energy Use - 2030

205205

Page 9: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Energy Intensity - Declining Trend AcceleratesEnergy Intensity - Declining Trend Accelerates

0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Non-OECD

OECD

Barrels of Oil Equivalent per $K GDP

-1.8%-1.8%

-1.5%-1.5%

-1.2%-1.2%

Average Growth / Yr. 1980 - 2000

Average Growth / Yr. 1980 - 2000

-1.4%-1.4%

2000 - 2030 2000 - 2030

Page 10: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Energy Demand GrowsEnergy Demand Grows

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1.6%1.6%

1.7%1.7%

2.0%2.0%

1.7%1.7%

1.3%1.3%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

ElectricityElectricity

TransportTransportChemicalsChemicals

Heat/Other *Heat/Other *

Energy by UseMBDOE

* Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture * Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture

Page 11: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Energy Demand GrowsEnergy Demand Grows

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Energy by Type

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

MBDOE

1.6%1.6%

1.8%1.8%

1.4%1.4%

1.8%1.8%

1.6%1.6%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1.6%1.6%

1.7%1.7%

2.0%2.0%

1.7%1.7%

1.3%1.3%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

ElectricityElectricity

TransportTransportChemicalsChemicals

Heat/Other *Heat/Other *

Energy by UseMBDOE

* Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture * Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture

Page 12: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Oil and Gas Remain PredominantOil and Gas Remain Predominant

0

1

2

3

4

1980 2005 20300

20

40

60

80

1980 2005 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar

NuclearNuclear

HydroHydro

Biomass,MSW

Biomass,MSW

Wind & SolarWind & Solar

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

1.8%1.8%

1.6%1.6%

1.8%1.8%

1.4%1.4%

1.6%1.6%

1.3%1.3%

1.9%1.9%

1.4%1.4% 9.6%9.6%

11.1%11.1%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

SolarSolar

WindWind

12.4%12.4%

Page 13: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Oil Primarily Meeting Transport DemandOil Primarily Meeting Transport Demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 2005 2030

Oil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 2005 20300

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 2005 2030

Gas CoalMBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

ElectricityElectricity

TransportTransport

ChemicalsChemicals

Heat/OtherHeat/Other

1.1%1.1%

1.5%1.5%

1.7%1.7%

- 0.2%- 0.2%

1.5%1.5%

2.0%2.0%

2.2%2.2%

1.3%1.3%

2.3%2.3%

1.4%1.4%

1.8%1.8% 1.8%1.8%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Page 14: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Oil Growth Led by Non-OECD Transport DemandOil Growth Led by Non-OECD Transport Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 2005 2030

OECDMBD

ElectricityElectricity

TransportTransport

ChemicalsChemicals

Heat/OtherHeat/Other

Light Duty Vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 2005 2030

Non-OECDMBD

0.1%0.1%

0.5%0.5%

0.6%0.6%

- 2.1%- 2.1%

0.3%0.3%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

1.9%1.9%

3.4%3.4%

3.4%3.4%

0.6%0.6%

2.5%2.5%

Page 15: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

0

1

10

100

1000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000Income per Capita ($)

Vehi

cles

per

100

0 pe

ople

Personal Vehicles Function of Income Per CapitaPersonal Vehicles Function of Income Per CapitaHistorical dataHistorical data

OECDOECD

Non-OECDNon-OECD

0.10.1

0

500

1000

1500

2000 2015 2030

Total FleetTotal Fleet

OECDOECD

Non-OECDNon-OECD

MillionMillion

5.5%5.5%

1.0%1.0%

Average Growth

Average Growth

Page 16: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Vehicle FleetVehicle Fleet

North America

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030

MillionMillion

Light Duty Fleet

GasolineGasoline

DieselDiesel

HybridHybrid1.2%1.2%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Europe

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030

MillionMillion

0.9%0.9%

Asia Pacific

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030

MillionMillion

4.7%4.7%

Page 17: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Vehicle FuelsVehicle Fuels

Asia Pacific

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2010 2020 2030

Light Duty Fuels

MBDOEMBDOE

2.4%2.4%3.4%3.4%

3.8%3.8%

3.7%3.7%

Europe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2010 2020 2030

MBDOEMBDOE

-0.5%-0.5%

1.8%1.8%

-1.6%-1.6%

North America

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2010 2020 2030

MBDOEMBDOE

CNG/LPGCNG/LPG

GasolineGasoline

DieselDiesel

0.1%0.1%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

2.6%2.6%

0.0%0.0%

Page 18: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Conventional Oil Resources - 2005Conventional Oil Resources - 2005

North AmericaNorth America

Latin AmericaLatin America

EuropeEurope1.01.0

Middle EastMiddle East0.30.3

AfricaAfrica

0.10.1

Asia PacificAsia Pacific

0.40.4

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian

2.2Remaining2.2Remaining

Produced YE 2004Produced YE 2004

3.2 TBO3.2 TBO

WorldWorld

0.20.2

0.20.2

0.10.1

Conventional* Crude and Condensate (TBO)Conventional* Crude and Condensate (TBO)

* Excludes frontier resources – oil sands, extra heavy oil, shale oil* Excludes frontier resources – oil sands, extra heavy oil, shale oil

Page 19: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Liquids Production - ex OPEC CrudeLiquids Production - ex OPEC CrudeMBD

Non-OPEC Crude + CondensateNon-OPEC Crude + Condensate

OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGL’sNGL’s

BiofuelsBiofuelsOtherOther

Oil Sands Oil Sands

Page 20: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Liquids DemandLiquids DemandMBD

Liquids Demand

Non-OPEC Crude + CondensateNon-OPEC Crude + Condensate

OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGL’sNGL’s

BiofuelsBiofuelsOtherOther

Oil Sands Oil Sands

Page 21: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Call on OPECCall on OPECMBD

OPEC CrudeOPEC Crude

Liquids Demand

~28~28

~30~30

~37~37~47~47

Non-OPEC Crude + CondensateNon-OPEC Crude + Condensate

OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGL’sNGL’s

BiofuelsBiofuelsOtherOther

Oil Sands Oil Sands

Page 22: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

Technology Essential to Meet Supply ChallengesTechnology Essential to Meet Supply ChallengesReservoir ImagingHarsh Environments

Enhanced Oil RecoveryMeans Field, Texas

CO2flood

1982 1990 1995 2003

Cumulative Production (MBO)

Pro

duct

ion

Rat

e (K

BD

)

120 260

28% 32% 35% 40%

Actual Production

Recovery5

10

15Extended Reach Drilling

6 miles6 miles

Page 23: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

The Outlook for Energy to 2030The Outlook for Energy to 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

Energy by TypeMBDOE

• Energy demand will increase over 50% by 2030– Driven by economic progress & population growth

• 80% of energy demand growth in non-OECD

• Energy efficiency trends to accelerate

• Oil, gas and coal remain predominant– Oil resources adequate to sustain growth– Gas market increasingly global– Coal growth linked to non-OECD economic gains

• Technology critical to meeting energy challenges

Page 24: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook
Page 25: The Outlook for Energy - National Academiessites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/depssite/documents/... · 2020. 4. 8. · Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis • Energy Outlook

The Outlook for EnergyThe Outlook for EnergyFor more information regarding ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook

please visit the link below:

www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook

For more information regarding ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook please visit the link below:

www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook