The Future and Challenges of Technology for  the Prosperity and

Well-Being of the World

Michael Lightner, PhD2005 IEEE President-Elect

CONFIEP 2005August 9

Lima, Peru

Welcome and Disclaimer

It is an honor to be here and I thank Our wonderful hosts and You for taking time to meet with us

I am not an economist, finance specialist or social scientist

However, I will talk about aspects of these areas I am not an expert on all areas of engineering

However I will talk about various areas The positions and points I discuss are

personal and not the view or policy of IEEE

Outline

What technology offers Emerging Technologies Historical Context and Current data Challenges

What Technology Offers Possibilities

Doing things differently, better Improving standards of living

Power, water, food, health, community HOPE

For a better world, better future However, technology CANNOT deliver on any of these

Technology together with business, government, society, MAY be able to deliver

The promise of technology, unlike the promise of science, lives, breathes, succeeds and fails within the fabric of our socio-economic systems

If this is ignored nothing is achieved

Emerging Technologies

Before we examine the difficult issues raised in the last slide

Let us examine some emerging technologies Something engineers love to do

Emerging Technologies

10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World — Technology Review's pick 10 emerging technologies that will affect our lives and work in revolutionary ways, whether next year or next decade.

Universal Translation Synthetic Biology Nanowires Bayesian Machine Learning T-Rays Distributed Storage RNA Interference Power Grid Control Microfluidic Optical Fibers Personal Genomics

Source: Technology Review, Feb 2004

Emerging Technologies

Biotechnology Biotechnology, biomedical,

microfluidics (lab on a chip), pharmaceuticals, protein engineering, systems biology, biology

Design engineering Computer aided design, design

automation, microtechnology, semiconductor technology, semiconductors, chip design

Internet Internet, Web, global sharing and

processing of information

Mobile Communications (WiFi), mobile

technology, radio frequency communications, wireless, wireless and mobile devices

Nanotechnology

Tools Computer (PDA, handheld), organic

display technology, Interconnectivity of products

Power low power technologies,

photovoltaics (power), power electronics, energy products

Systems Computer systems reliability,

embedded systems, question answering systems (search technology)

Data storage technology Security

Cryptography, privacy wrt information gathering, surveillance technology

Bandwidth Sensors

Sources: IEEE Spectrum, Nov 2004 , “Most important technology for the next decade” and “10 tech companies for next decade”; Trend Consortium, Sep 2004, “24-month future scan: technologies that will impact business over the next two years”; and Business 2.0, Sep 2004, “Seven new technologies”

“10 Emerging Technologies that will change your world”

Airborne Networks

Quantum Wires

Silicon Photonics

Metabolomics

Magnetic Resonance Force Microscopy

Universal Memory

Bacterial Factories

Enviromatics

Cell Phone Viruses

Biomechatronics

Technology Review May 2005

Biomechatronics Combines robotics

with the nervous system to make artificial limbs work like the real thing

Microprocessors & sensors monitor user’s gait

Universal memory

Nanotubes make ultradense data storage possible

Within 20 years you will put all the DVDs ever made on your laptop

Bacterial Factories Changing a microbe’s

metabolism could yield a cheap malaria drug

Reduces the cost of treatment to < 25 cents

Understanding cell metabolism is leading to new methods of treating major diseases such as cancer

May also lead to major tools for environmental clean-up and toxic waste management

Quantum wires

Wires spun from carbon nanotubes could carry electricity farther & more efficiently

Might transform the electrical power grid

Historical Context

It is important to examine how major technological changes impacted the world

We will use the work of Carlota Perez, ‘Technological Revolutions and Financial Captial’, 2003, Elgar Publishing, as a basis.

The following figures/data are from this book Related to the Schumpeterian school of invention

and innovation Next we will look at various demographic

trends and finally move to the challenges for today

Technological Revolution

New technologies or industries

New/redefined infrastructures

Industrial Revolution Mechanized cotton industry Canals and Waterways

Age of Steam and Railways

Steam engines and machinery, railways, iron and coal mining

Railways, postal service, telegraph, great ports, city gas

Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Manufacturing

Cheap steel, heavy chemistry and civil engineering, electrical equipment manufacturing

Worldwide telephone and telegraph, electrical power networks

Age of Oil, the Automobile and Mass Production

Mass produced automobiles, cheap oil and fuels, refrigerated and frozen foods

Universal electricity, worldwide analog communications, major transportations networks

Age of Information and Telecommunications

Cheap microelectronics, computers, software, telecommunications, computer- aided biotech

Worldwide digital telecommunications, internet, email

Perez’s Model Points to specific countries for initial development,

then slower diffusion Previous revolutions were set in a much less global

economy Consider the ‘world is flat’ phenomena reported by

Thomas Friedman We don’t know if the model will hold in a much more

distributed technical and financial environment Of course, the question is, what will be the next big

‘age’? (nano/bio/cognitive?) The real question is whether there may be more than one

in the global environment

Perez’s Model We are concerned with global impact and prosperity The installation phase does NOT provide for global

dissemination It is concentrated in small number of countries

The deployment phase and the end of the era is when we can expect the developing countries to gain from the new technologies/technical revolution

One concern in examining this type of macroeconomic model is that we lose sight of the improvements that can be made today by easy technical improvements

Aspects of Current Environment

Technology diffusion Population demographics Four Countries Economists Watch Job predictions

Rate of Technological Change(years for the technology to spread to a quarter of the U.S. population )

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Auto-m

obile

Tele

phone

Radio

PC

Cell p

hone

Inte

rnet

Ye

ars

Source: National Innovation Initiative

World Population: 1950-2050

The planet's population continues to explode: from 2.6 billion in 1950, to 6.2 in 2002 and 9.1 billion in 2050

Less developed countries (LDCs) dominate the list of the world's ten most populous countries and will drive population growth for the next five decades. LDCs in Asia and Oceania excluding India and China are expected to be more populous than any other region by 2050.

The largest percentage increase in population size over the next five decades is projected to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. 0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2025 2050

Billions

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base

Population for Selected Countries

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

China Japan India France Germany Italy Spain UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Bill

ion

s

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2025 2050

42 42 41 39 39 3632 24 39Median age(2002-03)

In 2002, China is the most populous country in the world and India, the second most populous. India gains population rapidly and eclipses China in total population in 2037.

Half of the world’s more developed countries (MDCs), including those in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, are expected to experience population declines over the next 50 years. The United States is the only MDC expected to be among the ten most populous countries in 2050.

MDCs will experience aging populations, while LDCs will have a “youth bulge.” Nearly 50% of the world’s population could be less than 18 years old by 2020.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base

Countries Economist Watch Brazil Russia India China

Brazil Possessing large and well-developed agricultural,

mining, manufacturing and service sectors, Brazil's economy outweighs that of all other South American countries and is expanding its presence in world markets

An industrial power with the largest population in Latin America and the Caribbean

Brazil has made big strides in reducing social and economic inequality, which are both cause and consequence of the poverty that continues to afflict millions of people in the country

With one of the largest hydropower sectors in the world, Brazil is a country for the future

But the country's energy infrastructure needs some repair

The bulk of foreign direct investment in Brazil is going into banking, electricity, and telecommunications

Russia An emerging-market economy that manages to produce more

than 200,000 science grads a year Students are well-trained in computer science, physics,

mathematics, and engineering. Growing numbers are being snapped up by some of the world's biggest tech companies.

One of Russia's surprising survival stories is the resurgence of the country's once-superb, State-funded scientific education system.

Russia's universities and scientific institutes are slowly adapting to the harsh realities of a market economy, by tapping private funding and research contracts and forming partnerships with international heavyweights such as Intel, IBM, and Cisco Systems. Meanwhile, enrollment in science courses is rising once again.

Government spending on science is up by 90% since 1998, although it remains a fraction of what it was under communism. Meanwhile, private finance now makes up around 45% of all research funding.

Intel already employs 500 Russian engineers at research centers in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Nizhny Novgorod, and plans to recruit 500 more this year

Source: Business Week, August 2004

Russia

Low salaries are a problem

A postdoctoral researcher at Okayama University in Japan would earn $3,700 a month in Japan, while an assistant professor in Russia collects a mere $100 a month; practitioners earn less

Even with large number of student graduates, almost two-thirds of Russia's scientists are over 40

If current trends continue, 42% will be over 60 by 2010

India GDP growth rate is among the

fastest in the world, and investment, both domestic and foreign, contributes over 20%of GDP.

India is in the midst of a demographic transition with a rising proportion of its population of ‘working age’ (15-59 years).

The country is known for software development and growth in knowledge-based industries, as well as a center for the outsourcing of services.

020406080

100120140160180200

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

EngineersEngineers

IT professionalsIT professionals

Source: National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASCOM)

Output of Degree Level Engineering and IT Professionals in India

(In thousands)

Other Information on India

India is capitalizing on its large numbers of well-educated people skilled in the English language to become a major exporter of software services and software workers.

India has more than 250 universities (over 900 colleges) and engineering colleges providing computer education at the degree/diploma level.

The output of trained engineering and IT human power increased since 1985, reached 130,000 in 2000 and is estimated at 300,000 in 2004

Other Information on India Global technology companies, including Intel,

Microsoft, Cisco Systems and Samsung Electronics are increasingly turning their India operations into centers for research and development (R&D)

The companies are taking advantage of the high-level engineering skills and the innovative working capabilities in India. They are investing to expand their R&D centers. [India Business Insights Dec 2004]

Microsoft has opened its 28-acre campus in Hyderabad and intends to open a research campus in Bangalore in 2005

Intel's development center in Bangalore has 2,400 professionals.

SSA Global is planning to invest $12 million during Jan-Sep 2005 in its Hyderabad R&D hub

Samsung Electronics has two R&D centers in Bangalore and Noida.

China China has come of economic age [Business

Week Online, Nov 2004] China's total volume of imports and exports

will reach $1 trillion in 2004. [The Journal of Commerce, Sept 20, 2004]

China's strong economic growth is driven by a continuing surge in foreign direct investment. Today, more than 400 of the world's 500 biggest companies have a China presence. [Institutional Investor, Sept 2004]

China’s educational system—according to it’s Ministry of Education— has:

1,984 higher education institutes 3.35 million higher education students with an

additional 270,000 enrolled for post-graduate study

400,000 Chinese nationals studying overseas

China’s use of electronic media has exploded. In 1997, 620,000 people in China had Internet accounts and in 2002 that figure stood at 59.1 million. This puts China second in the world for Net connectivity. China may pass the United States in the number of Internet users within two years; it already leads the world in cell phone users.

Other Information on China China's booming domestic private companies have become

the backbone of the country's science and technology industry as their numbers and assets increase

China overtook the United States in 2003 as the top global recipient of foreign direct investment

Google, Yahoo!, and eBay have all made recent acquisitions in China, and all are looking to boost growth in a region where the upside is huge compared to their home markets.

Every tech company with global ambitions knows that it will wind up being either a partner with China's emerging tech sector or else its rival

Following a boom in domestic sales of telecommunications equipment, Chinese companies are focusing on the development of their foreign operations and becoming a major player in the European and North American markets

Comments on the BRIC

From the perspective of the Perez model these countries are working in the deployment phase of various technologies - taking advantage of golden ages.

They are not the grounds for a new revolution Next technological revolution may have

disruptive impact on their infrastructure Consider South Korea

Acknowledged leader in cloning technology, but not on the typical shorter term economic watch list

U.S. Employment Projections:2002- 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, projects future job growth by industry and occupation. The 10-year projections were published in the February 2004 issue of Monthly Labor Review. The BLS projections are based on assumptions of economic growth and model-based findings that connect the past to the future.

Projections for engineers, scientists and computer-related occupations of interest to the IEEE are covered in the following two slides.

Projected U.S. Occupational Growth for Selected Categories: 2002-2012

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Astronomers and physicistsAtmospheric and space scientists

MicrobiologistsGeoscientists

Biochemists and biophysicistsChemists and materials

Biological scientistsEnvironmental scientists

Medical scientists

All other engineersAerospace engineersPetroleum engineers

Agricultural engineersChemical engineers

Marine engineers and navalMining and geological engineers

Nuclear engineersMaterials engineers

Biomedical engineersComputer hardware engineers

Mechanical engineersElectrical and electronics engineers

Civil engineersEnvironmental engineers

Engineering managersIndustrial engineers

All other computer specialistsComputer and info. scientists,

Database administratorsComputer programmers

Network and computer sys. admin.Computer and info. sys.managers

Network sys. and data comm. analystsSoftware engineers, systems software

Computer support specialistsSoftware engineers, applications

Computer sys. analysts

Total occupations

(% Change)

Computer occupations

Engineers

Life and physical scientists

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art5full.pdf

Three of the 10 fastest growing occupations are computer-related occupations. Network systems and data communications analysts will grow 57% and software engineering occupations (applications and systems software) will grow 46%.Engineering occupations are projected to grow 7% with environmental engineers being the fastest growing (38%) followed by biomedical engineers (26%). Electrical and electronics engineering jobs and computer hardware engineering jobs are each projected to grow 6%.

-50 0 50 100 150 200

Astronomers and physicistsAtmospheric and space scientists

MicrobiologistsGeoscientists

Biochemists and biophysicistsChemists and materials

Biological scientistsEnvironmental scientists

Medical scientists

All other engineersAerospace engineersPetroleum engineers

Agricultural engineersChemical engineers

Marine engineers and navalMining and geological engineers

Nuclear engineersMaterials engineers

Biomedical engineersComputer hardware engineers

Mechanical engineersElectrical and electronics engineers

Civil engineersEnvironmental engineers

Engineering managersIndustrial engineers

All other computer specialistsComputer and info. scientists,

Database administratorsComputer programmers

Network and computer sys. admin.Computer and info. sys.managers

Network sys. and data comm. AnalystsSoftware engineers, systems software

Computer support specialistsSoftware engineers, applications

Computer sys. analysts

Total occupations

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art5full.pdf

Projected U.S. Occupational Growth for Selected Categories: 2002-2012

(Growth in Numbers, in Thousands)

Computer occupations

Engineers

Life and physical scientists

Computer systems analysts will add 184,000 jobs and software engineers (applications) will add 179,000. These are among the occupations with the largest projected numerical job growth between 2002 and 2012. About 17,000 EE jobs and 5,000 computer engineering jobs will be added over the next decade.

Major Point

These projections miss a major point The number of electrical and

computer engineering jobs as well as information science jobs to be created in the next SEVEN years in the U.S. is less than the number of graduates in these areas in India and China THIS year.

Challenges

We all believe that technology can generate potential solutions to major global problems

HOWEVER, for the technical solutions to actually impact the lives of people we need the interaction and synergy of

Global companies Economic systems - globally interrelated Standards - global Technical creations - global Social systems National governments

Multidisciplinary

In technology we often talk about the multi-/trans-disciplinary nature of modern day engineering

In fact, it is MUCH more complicated Engineering lives and succeeds within a socio-

economic system that is becoming completely global

Engineers need to partner in a much more complicated and synergistic way with the other key players in order to make sure that the promise of engineering becomes a reality

Engineers

You cannot be a cog in a machine You are part of the solution

Partner with government, business, academics

This is the power of technical entrepreneurship and the way to create a technical revolution

It is the key to HOPE for the serious problems facing the world today