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The Energy Nexus

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Energy in History

•  Domestic animals and slaves •  Biomass and wind and water power supplement till 18th

century •  Coal and the steam engine (ships and locomotives) –

late 18th century •  Oil, gasoline and diesel (internal combustion followed by

turbines) – late 19th century •  Nuclear – by 1950s •  Wind, photovoltaic and batteries – known since early 20th

century, but not up-scaled until recently

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Primary Energy Sources Classification

•  Coal •  Oil •  Gas •  Nuclear •  Combustionable renewables and waste •  Hydro/Geothermal/Solar/Wind

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World total primary energy supply by fuel

International Energy Agency, available at: http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm

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IEA “New policies Scenario”

•  According to WEO-2017 of IEA, four large-scale shifts in the global energy system scene: – Rapid deployment and falling costs of clean

energy technologies – Growing electrification of energy – Shift to a more services-oriented economy

and a cleaner energy mix in China – Shale gas and tight (shale) oil in the United

States

•  Global economics growth by 3.4%, world population reaching at 9 billion, very fast track urbanization: Global energy demand rising by 30%.

•  Largest share in demand growth comes from India and Southeast Asian countries.

•  Natural gas and renewables will be the leading components to meet the rising demand; the share of coal declines, oil stagnates.

•  By 2030, China will be the largest nuclear energy producer, overtaking US.

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•  Renewables capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants as they become, for many countries, the least-cost source of new generation.

•  By 2040, total share of renewables will reach at 40%

•  Electricity is the rising force among worldwide end-uses of energy, making up 40% of the rise in final consumption to 2040.

•  To meet the rising demand, China needs to add the equivalent of today’s US power system to its electricity infrastructure by 2040, and India needs to add a power system the size of today’s European Union.

•  China is entering a new phase in its development, with emphasis in energy policy now firmly on electricity, natural gas and cleaner, high efficiency and digital technologies.

•  US, with the shale gas and tight oil revolution, is a net exporter of gas, and will become a net exporter of oil by late 2020s (accounting for 80% of the increase in oil supply by 2025).

•  Till 2020s low oil prices, afterwards, declining reserves, more oil and higher prices.

•  LNG (liquified natural gas) will account for the 90% percent of the increase in long distance gas trade to 2040.

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•  China’s emissions plateau by 2030 and then start declining. The outcome of projections is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.

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Will there be a peak of oil?

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•  Theoretically yes! But when and how? •  Fundamentals behind Hubbert’s curve

–  With increased cumulative production, production increases (the reinforcing production loop)

–  With diminishing reserves, production declines (the balancing depletion loop).

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•  All other factors influencing the scale and timing of the peak on the Hubbert’s curve: –  Total reserve? How about unproven and emerging

reserves, ex. tight oil? –  Development in alternative primary energy resources –  Development in demand

•  Pattern (increase peak and decline) robust but the timing and the scale of the peak, highly uncertain

•  The constraint is not the reserve under the soil but the atmospheric sink

•  Therefore “keep the oil under the soil”! Esc 307 - 2016

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Further discussion

•  Can natural gas be a “transition” resource?

•  Can nuclear energy be “transition” resource?

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Natural gas •  Saves carbon compared to coal, at about 40% •  There are abundant gas resources worldwide (proven

reserves increasing with the fracture –shale gas– technology

•  Pipeline and LNG (liquified natural gas) shipments via sea freight is spreading

•  40% is not enough for global climate targets and the socio-technical lock-in in gas fueled infrastructure risks developments in genuine renewables, i.e. solar-wind and hydro

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Nuclear Power Today

•  Worldwide, there are >441 nuclear power plants operating.

•  About 70 under construction. •  Last decade, nuclear based electric production

increased by 2.5% per year. •  More than 30 countries own or install nuclear power

plants. •  The nuclear power landscape once more changed after

the Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011. •  Now, the developed nuclear nations are trying to

maintain their installed capacity. China and India are investing heavily. There are newcomers i.e. Turkey. Germany and Sweden are phasing out.

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A brief history of nuclear power •  Research on the structure of elements and radioactivity

in early 20th century •  The Manhattan Project, the acquisition of the “bomb” by

USA in 1945 and Hiroshima and Nagasaki massacers •  Launching of the “peaceful nuclear” era after the second

world war •  Signing of the NPT – Treaty on non-proliferation of

nuclear weapons •  Rising of the global anti-nuclear concern in 70s,

deregulation of utilities in USA, 1979 Three Miles Island Accident

•  The last power plant was ordered in US in 1978. By 2020 %27 of US nuclear capacity will be out of commission (if not rehabilitated).

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How Nuclear Power Works •  Nuclear energy involves changes at the atomic

level through –  Fission: a large atom is split into two smaller atoms of

different elements. –  Fusion: two smaller atoms combine to form a larger

atom of a different element. •  In both fission and fusion the mass of the

product is less than the mass of the starting material, the lost mass is converted to energy, according to –  E=mc2

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•  Fuel for nuclear power plants –  All current plants use uranium-235 for fission.

•  To make nuclear fuel, uranium ore is mined, purified into uranium dioxide, and enriched (U-235 separated from U-238).

•  When U-235 is highly enriched, the spontaneous fission of an atom can trigger a chain reaction.

•  A nuclear power plant reactor is designed to sustain a continous chain reaction but not allow it to amplify. This is achieved by modest enrichment, 4%U-235 and 96% U-238.

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Aspects of nuclear power assessment

– Uncertainty in geographic and temporal span of potential impacts;

•  Problems of “safe radiation doses”; minor-major accidents; nuclear waste deposition.

– Eventual discounting of impacts on future generations.

•  Problems of “safe radiation doses”; minor-major accidents; nuclear waste deposition.

– Military externalities (positive or negative?). – Climate change debate (see the

documentary, “climate of hope”.

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•  Safe radiation doses! – Health screening studies show that the cancer

incidents are higher among the communities living around nuclear power plants

– Read famous medical doctor, Samuel Epstein and cell biologist John William Gofman (1918-2007)

– Time lags in cause and effect, slow gradual development of cancer confuses public discussions on safe radiation doses

•  Major accidents – Three Miles Island, 28 March 1979,

Pennsylvania. – Chernobyl, 26 April 1986, Ukraine: estimated

long range cancer related deaths between 140000 and 475000.

– Fukushima, March 2011, Japan.

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•  Nuclear wastes – Disposal of nuclear wastes

• Short term containment for short lived isotopes: in 10 years 97% radiation is lost.

• Long term containment for long lived isotopes: the real challenge, EPA recommends 10,000 year minimum containment; National Research Council of US 100,0000 years.

– Geological burial for long term containment is not practiced yet!

•  Worldwide, nuclear waste is building 10,000 tons per year. All stored on site near nuclear power plants.

•  While dismantling decommissioned plants, more nuclear wastes will be generated than produced during its entire lifetime.

•  Storage of waste creates problems within developed nations, being transported to less developed countries.

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Nuclear Armement •  NPT – Treaty on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons,

came in force in 1970. •  190 countries joined, five of them recognized as nuclear-

weapon states: USA, USSR, UK, France, China. •  Elements of the treaty:

–  Non-proliferation –  Disarmement –  Right to access to peaceful use of nuclear power.

•  Current nuclear-weapon owners: Original five (grandfathering nuclear weapons) + “illegal” weapon bearers

Red colored – not signed the treaty. Other colors, with different accession dates.

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Nucelar weapons distribution Blue: NPT designated Red: Other states Dark blue: NATO nuclear weapons sharing Gree: States formerly possessing Yellow: Believed to have nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Power Controversy Summary

•  Values matter. •  Compensation is difficult, often not considered at all. •  People’s rights (safety standards) are violated. •  Rate of time discount, not applicable to economic

calculations, considering far reaching impacts. •  Discontinuities are highly likely. •  Uncertainties are not equal! •  Therefore cannot be assessed on the basis of economic

rationality and “cost-benefit analysis” methodologies

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•  A final note on “plutonium externality”! – Plutonium needs to be stored for 100.000

years. – Parsimoniously discount its influence on

future generations with a rate 0,01% – Mega cost of disposal discounted for over

100.000 years: •  M/(1+0,0001)^100.000 = close to 0 That is, in economic calculation, present value of the

future cost is close to 0. Cost/benefit calculation does not care about generations far ahead.