water-food-energy nexus: well-being indicators for a better quality of...
TRANSCRIPT
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Water-Food-Energy Nexus: well-being
indicators for a better quality of life
Fabiola Riccardini, Dalila de RosaMilan, 22 May 2015
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Table of contents
� introduction� water energy food security � global mega trends, � water - food; energy – food; water - energy nexus � the nexus in the SDGs process� nexus approach vs well-being� some features from Italy� conclusions
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INTRODUCTION
RESEARCH PURPOSE:
� to investigate on the linkages between the W/F/ENexus and well-being.
� to look at the BES (benessere equo e sostenibile)domains and figure out the possible links tofood-energy-water security defining rooms forpolicy (drivers) and to identify the direct andindirect impacts on well-being.
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WATER ENERGY FOOD SECURITY
Despite the progress the international community has done t hanks to the MillenniumDevelopment Goals, according to the World Bank, 1.2 billion still lack access toelectricity, at least 748 million are without access to clea n, safe drinking water and 870million are malnourished.
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GLOBAL MEGA TRENDS
According to the UN global projections, world popul ation is expected to reach 9.5 billion people by 2050
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GLOBAL MEGA TRENDS
In this context of demographic pressure the demand of natural resources is supposed to grow exponentially and accordingly the competition among these is expected to burden. According to the OECD Environmental outlook
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THE NEXUS APPROACH
In this context of demographic pressure and over competitio n between naturalresources a Nexus approach is crucial. In practical terms, i t presents aconceptual approach to better understand and systematical ly analyze theinteractions between the natural environment and human act ivities, and to worktowards a more coordinated management and use of natural res ources acrosssectors and scales.
FOOD
ENERGYWATER
• Irrigation• Drinkable uses
• Fertilizers• Agricultural equipment• Bioenergy
• Hydroeletric• Thermoeletric energy resources• Biofuels
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THE NEXUS APPROACH WITHIN THE SDG’S
Goal 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture
Goal 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all
Goal 12: Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
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THE NEXUS APPROACH WITHIN THE SDG’S
TARGETS
� By 2030 double the agricultural productivity and th e incomes of small-scale food producers particularl y women, indigenous peoples, family farmers
� By 2030 ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help mai ntain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaption to climate change, extreme weather, drough t, flooding and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
� By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all� By 2030, achieve access to adequate and equitable s anitation and hygiene for all� By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficienc y across all sectors and ensure sustainable
withdrawals and supply of freshwater � By 2030 implement integrated water resources manage ment at all levels, including through
transboundary cooperation as appropriate.� By 2030 ensure universal access to affordable, reli able, and modern energy services� Double the global rate of improvement in energy eff iciency by 2030� By 2030 achieve sustainable management and efficien t use of natural resources � By 2030 halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer level, and reduce food losses
along production and supply chains including post-h arvest losses.� By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation thro ugh prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse. � Encourage companies, especially large and trans-nat ional companies, to adopt sustainable practices and
to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle.� By 2030 ensure that people everywhere have the rele vant information and awareness for sustainable
development and lifestyles in harmony with nature .
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NEXUS Vs WELL -BEING
The aim of this work was to investigate on the lin kages between the Nexus and well-being. In particular the Nexus will be framed within the Italian BES (Benessere equo e sostenibile).
As Part of the international debate on "Gdp and beyo nd“ The BES Project is aimed to measure equitable and sustainable well- being
The central idea is that economic parameters alone are inadequate to evaluate the progress of societies and should be co mplemented by social and environmental information and by measure s of inequality and sustainability
12 domains of wellbeing
Annual Reports 2013 and 2014, next Sept 2015
Website: http://www.misuredelbenessere.it/
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Key domains for the Italian BES
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NEXUS Vs WELL-BEING : THE PROPOSED FRAMEWORK
Barilla Double Pyramid : what is good for you is go od for your planet
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NEXUS Vs WELL-BEING : THE PROPOSED FRAMEWORK
The nexus framed through the BES model
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NEXUS Vs WELL-BEING : THE PROPOSED FRAMEWORK
The nexus framed through the BES model
IMPATTI
DIRETTI
Ambiente
Paesaggio e
patrimonio
IMPATTI
DIRETTI
Salute
IMPATTI SEMIDIRETTI
Lavoro
Benessere economico
Relazioni Relazioni
sociali
Sicurezza
Benessere
soggettivo
DRIVERS
Politica e istituzioni
qualità dei servizi
Istruzione formazione
Ricerca e Innovazione
• speranza di
vita in buona
salute
• Indice di stato
fisico
• Stili di vita :
alimentazione,
eccesso di
peso
• acqua potabile
• flussi di materia
• erosione dello spazio rurale
da abbandono e urban
sprawl
• elementi di degrado
• valutazione della
programmazione dello
sviluppo rurale
• regolarità nella fornitura
del servizio elettrico/idrico
• raccolta differenziata
• educazione alimentare
• educazione contro gli
sprechi e per il riciclo
• agricoltura familiare
• tecnologie per l’agricoltura
sostenibile
• Soddisfazione per le
relazioni familiari amicali
• Presenza di elementi di
degrado nella zona in cui
si vive
• Occupazione
• Reddito disponibile
• Distribuzione
• deprivazione
N
E
X
U
S
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Double Pyramid World trends
0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00%
butter
sugar
carne…
cheese
carne…
fish
cereal
World growth rate 2014-2023 of total consuption and
production broken down by food kind
prodction
consumption
source our elaboration on FAO/OECD
0 5000 10000 15000
BOVINE MEAT
SHEEP MEAT
PIGMEAT
BUTTER
CHEESE
POULTRY…
CEREALS
EGGS
VEGETABLES
Water footprint by product (m3/ton)
(1996-2005)
source Water footprint network
Looking at the world consumption projection it seems the world is not going towards a sustainable food pattern. Still this global aggregation is not completely reliable but just an indication.
At world aggregate level the food water footprint confirm the environmental pyramid
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Some features from Italy: global mega trends
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
Italian Population Dynamic
Total Population at Mid-Year, 1950-2050 (thousands)
Rural Population at Mid-Year, 1950-2050 (thousands)
Urban Population at Mid-Year, 1950-2050 (thousands)
Source UN, DESA Population Projects Revision
2014
-1.000
-500
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Migration flows
Net number of migrants, both sexes combined (thousands)
Source UN, DESA Population Projects Revision
2014
Italian population is expected to slightly decrease by 2050 (-1,8%) with an increasing migration from rural to urban areas
Moreover a huge entering flows started at the end of ninties is expected to continue
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Some features from Italy: food Pyramid
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Abitudini alimentari: Persone di 3 anni e più per consumo di alcuni alimenti pane pasta
latte
formaggi
legumi
dolci
verdure
ortaggi
frutta
carni bianche
carni bovine
carne maiale
uova
pesce
- - - dashed line: decrasing trend continuos line : increasing
source ISTAT Aspetti della
vita quotidiana
pane pasta
carni bianche
frutta
carni bovine
latte
pesce
uova
verdure
dolci
carne maiale
ortaggi
formaggi
84,93
80,20
76,22
70,81
59,12
58,60
56,74
50,78
48,94
46,62
42,58
23,69
Abitudini alimentari: Persone di 3 anni e più per consumo di
alcuni alimenti (average 2005-2013) Italian people consume lot of pasta, meat (white and red) a good proportion of fruit but still a too small portion of vegetables
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Some features from Italy: food Pyramid
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
Spesa media mensile per consumi familiari dei generi alimentari e bevande
per categoria di consumo Anni2001-2013(composizioni percentuali)
Carne
Patate,
frutta e ortaggi
Pane e
cereali
Latte, formaggi e uova
Bevande
Pesce
Zucchero, caffé, thé, cacao ed
altro
Olii e
grassisource ISTAT, Indagine sui consumi delle
famiglie
Carne
Patate,…
Pane e…
Latte, formaggi e uova
Bevande
Pesce
Zucchero, caffé, thé, cacao ed altro
Olii e…
23,0
17,9
16,9
13,6
9,2
8,7
7,1
3,6
Spesa media mensile per consumi familiari dei generi alimentari e
bevande
per categoria di consumo media2001-2013(composizioni
percentuali)Also looking at the households montlhy foodexpenditure, Italian families show an high meat consumption and a still low vegetables consumption
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Some features from Italy: environmental Pyramid
1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012
30134 30134 30134
36% 32% 32%
Land use : total area and percentage of
total country are cultivated
Total area (1000 ha) % of total country area cultivated (%)
1998-2002 2003-2007
45,41
20,01
12,89
Water use : total area and percentage of total
country are cultivated Agricultural water withdrawal (10^9 m3/year) Total water withdrawal (10^9 m3/year)
2,00
2,20
2,40
2,60
2,80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Agriculture and forestry energy
use as a % of total Energy use (%)
Agriculture and forestry energy use as a % of total Energy
use (%)
250.000.000
350.000.000
450.000.000
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
30
Agricoltural Emissions (CO2eq)
Emissions (CO2eq) (Gigagrams)
Sources: FAOSTAT
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Some features from Italy: Direct Impact, Health
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
85,0
90,0
2009 2010 2011 2012
Speranza di vita e speranza di vita in buona salute, (anni)
SPERANZA DI VITA IN BUONA SALUTE SPERANZA DI VITA
..... linea tratteggiata per le donne
Women live longer but with lower good health expectations
25,0
27,0
29,0
31,0
33,0
35,0
37,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Eccesso di peso. Tassi standardizzati per età (per
10o persone di 18 anni e più)
donne uominifonte BES
Men suffer overweight more than women
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Some features from Italy: Direct Impact, Landscape and Environment
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
10,5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Emissioni di CO2 e altri gas clima alteranti
(tonnellate di CO2 equivalente per abitanti)
fonte BES
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Energia da fonti rinnovabili(percentuale sul totale dei
consumi interni lordi)
Nord Centro Mezzogiorno Italiafonte BES
Nord Centro Mezzogiorno
23,4 22,5
15,5
Erosione dello spazio rurale da dispersione
urbana .Anno 2001(percentuale sul totale della
superfice regionale)
fonte BES
Nord Centro Mezzogiorno
24,1 22,9
34,9
Erosione dello spazio rurale da abbandono.Anno
2001(percentuale sul totale della superfice
regionale)
fonte BES
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Some features from Italy: Semidirect Impact, labor a nd economic well-being
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Employment rate , 2004-2013
(percentages)
MASCHI totale FEMMINEfonte BES
0
10000
20000
30000
Occupati per settore di attività economica, - Anni
1977-2011 (in migliaia)
AGRICOLTURA INDUSTRIA SERVIZI TOTALE
Fonte ISTAT rilevazione sulla forza lavoro
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Disposable income per capita, 2004-2012
Nord Centro Mezzogiorno Italia
0,05,0
10,015,020,025,030,0
Indice di grave deprivazione materiale (per 100 persone)
Nord Centro Mezzogiorno Italia
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Conclusions: Drivers
DRIVERS
Politica e istituzioni
qualità dei servizi
Istruzione
Ricerca e Innovazione
Education• Food education and
“ending waste” policies
• Promote the culture of recycling
Research and Innovation• Improve resources
efficiency through technology
Politics and Institutions• Promotion of
smallholders agriculture and more safty agriculture as a means of sustainable agriculture
Quality of services• Guarantee the regularity of
the Public Utilities services( e.g. water supply and electricity power distribution)
• Waste differentiation and reduction of waste
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Future steps
�Add to the existing BES framework further indicators aimed at managing the Nexus, based on the presented analysis
�Contribute to the SDG’s debate for the selection of the more appropriate indicators representing the Nexus and well-being
�Build up a forward looking modeling framework able to formally analyze the linkages identified
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THANK YOU
FOR ATTENTION
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