Growing Energy-Water Demand: Implications for sustainable development

Rajan Gupta Laboratory Fellow

Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA

LA-UR 12-21494

Highlights •  Ignore energy security and climate security at global peril

•  You cannot wish away fossil fuels – create alternatives ! R&D

•  Evolution of coal-fired power – self limiting in most countries

•  Emergence of natural gas – more than a bridge fuel

•  Growth of solar & wind requires storage & smart grid

•  Water security and hydropower

•  Is China too big to be allowed to fail?

•  Population stabilization

•  Policy will be made with uncertain, incomplete information. Collateral repercussions will increase in a complex interconnected world

•  Ever growing need for Enlightened Leadership

Hydro & gas turbines as backup

Sustainable Development: The development-energy-environment-climate challenge

•  Development: moral imperative, creates resilient societies, facilitates transformations, drives politics

•  Energy: basis of modern technological societies

•  Water: basis of life

•  Environment: health and sustainability

•  Climate: the driver of the need to transform to carbon-neutral energy and transportation systems

Climate Change: Impacts are global, long-term and likely catastrophic

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The mean temperature is rising

Mean temperature rise since 1900 ~ 0.74oC

Land Temperature is rising faster

A change in Tav (land) from 20 year patterns between 1800-1960 to a uniform growth after 1970. Rise in mean temperature since 1970 ~ 0.9oC

Source: http://berkeleyearth.org/analysis/

We do not know the full consequences of current 395 ppm of CO2!!!

The timeliness and strength of our actions will decide ONE number that nature cares about: CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

1.6

Interim Goal ~500 ppm only if emissions stabilize TODAY

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historical emissions Flat path

Stabilization Triangle

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8

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~850 ppm

BAU (easier) CO2 target

Source: CMI Princeton

395

Full warming due to 395 ppm CO2 are not known

QUESTIONS: When and at what level will GHG emissions peak?

1.6

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historical emissions

Stabilization Triangle

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

Nature will enforce consequences

395

The world will not stop using fossil fuels in the 21st century because there is not enough, but

because there are cleaner cost-effective alternatives •  High Energy density: energy per kilogram

•  High Power density: Power per unit volume

•  Safe: Do not self combust and are easy to use

•  Transport: Easy to transport around the world

•  Easy and cheap to extract from the ground:

Challenges: Environment, Climate Change

Fossil Fuels are amazing sources of energy

The energy goal is clear

Need cheap clean carbon-neutral (C3) energy for electric power and transportation needs.

The challenge is

meeting these needs without using fossil fuels (and without nuclear power in some countries)

Coal and Gas for power generation •  ~25 countries dominate coal use

–  Future big players: China, India, USA

•  Natural gas is/will be the dominant fuel in many regions of the world

•  Urbanization is proceeding at a very rapid rate

–  Numbers of Mega-cities and large cities are growing and will remain centers of economic activity.

–  Large centralized power plants near cities will continue to have the benefit of economy of scale.

2020-2050: Coal and gas will retain >4TW capacity

Total Installed Capacity: China, India, USA

Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

Coal capacity will saturate in China & India ! each country plans 500+ GW of nuclear capacity in addition to coal and gas to meet their power needs

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China India United States

Gig

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Gas

Coal

Electric Power Generation: USA: 50% Coal China: 80% Coal India: 70% Coal

Cheap gas in the U.S. is replacing coal

Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

Coal capacity will saturate in China & India ! each country plans 500+ GW of nuclear capacity in addition to coal and gas to meet their power needs

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Electric Power Generation: USA: 50% Coal China: 80% Coal India: 70% Coal

35%

Coal-fired power in 21 Countries •  USA (1000/230000) •  UK (18/228) •  Germany (183/41000) •  Poland (135/5700) •  Czech, Ukraine,

Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Turkey (350/42000)

•  Russia (325/157000) •  Kazakhstan (110/33000)

•  China (3500/114000) •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%) •  Vietnam (45/150) •  Australia (424/76000) •  Indonesia (306/5500) •  India (570/60000)

•  South Africa (255/30000)

(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) MT (%) % power generated by coal: (BP2011)

China burns ~50% of world coal

•  USA (1000/230000) •  UK (18/228) •  Germany (183/41000) •  Poland (135/5700) •  Czech, Ukraine,

Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Turkey (350/42000)

•  Russia (325/157000) •  Kazakhstan (110/33000)

•  China (3500/114000) •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%) •  Vietnam (45/150) •  Australia (424/76000) •  Indonesia (306/5500) •  India (570/60000)

•  South Africa (255/30000)

(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) MT (%) % power generated by coal: (BP2011)

By 2050 only 7/21 will remain coal rich countries

•  USA (1000/230000) •  UK (18/228) •  Germany (183/41000) •  Poland (135/5700) •  Czech, Ukraine,

Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Turkey (350/42000)

•  Russia (325/157000) •  Kazakhstan (110/33000)

•  China (3250/114000) •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%) •  Vietnam (45/150) •  Australia (424/76000) •  Indonesia (306/5500) •  India (570/60000)

•  South Africa (255/30000)

(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) million tons (%) power generated by coal: (BP2011)

De-carbonizing: Technology •  Fuel Substitution

•  Higher fuel efficiency cars ! electric vehicles

Solar

Wind Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Charging

Natural Gas: the multi-purpose fuel Dominant in •  South America (after Hydro) •  North Africa •  Middle East •  Central Asia, Iran •  Russia

Major fuel in •  North America •  Europe •  South-east Asia •  Australia •  China (Shale Gas)

Shale Gas: USGS

Countries that can switch to gas relatively easily

•  USA? •  UK •  Germany •  Poland •  Czech, Ukraine,

Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Turkey

•  Russia •  Kazakhstan

•  China •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan •  Vietnam •  Australia •  Indonesia •  India

•  South Africa

Almost all of these countries will have nuclear power plants. ??GW??

Growth using shale gas

Growth using shale gas

Solar and Wind •  On a purely kWh cost basis (2012)

–  Wind @ $1/Wattp is competitive

•  $0.10/kW-hour

–  Solar is 2-3X more expensive: For sustainability: utility scale capital costs = $2/Wattp installed

•  $0.20/kWh

•  Intermittency & daily/seasonal variations are key challenges

solar

A stable grid must dynamically take care of variability in demand & generation

•  Day, week and seasonal variations in demand and generation

•  Need to plan for highest peak load if brownouts unacceptable

Source: Paul Denholm, NREL

Storage is the 1st key •  There are only two large-scale storage systems

that provide backup to solar and wind:

•  Hydro: (reservoir based)

–  seasonal regulation ! only about 40% of rated capacity

•  Hydro: (pumped storage)

–  daily regulation: only 40% of day in generation mode

•  Gas Turbines (intermediate step to reduce CO2 )

–  GT are oil or gas based with natural gas being more efficient

–  Unlimited potential but give rise to large GHG emissions if required to cover 50-70% of the load on a typical day

Hydro + Gas turbines+ Wind + Solar

Smart Grid is the 2nd key •  Integrating power generation, transmission, distribution, load

with information systems and real-time monitors

•  Management of generation to minimize fossil-fuel use

–  integrating the full potential of solar and wind

•  Demand management to

–  compensate for fluctuations in wind and solar generation by controlling load

–  Reduce/balance peak loads

Water has no substitute •  Essential for life and agriculture •  Industrial processes •  Thermal Power generation

Over 2 billion people live in water stressed areas. Severity and numbers are growing.

IPCC 2007

Climate change could disrupt India’s Monsoon. Essential for Rain and Himalayan Snow cover

Hydropower & Irrigation •  The potential of most rivers has already been exploited

•  Contention for water amongst riparian states will increase. Scarcity will increase the probability of wars over water.

•  Major development planned by China and India

•  A large fraction of Chinese development is planned in high Himalayas (Tibet) in the Tsangpo-Bhramaputra basin

–  Steep hillsides with narrow valleys

–  Prone to large landslides

–  Active earthquake zone with major faults

•  Growing Soil Salinity

Possible-Existing Projects

This is an Active Seismic Zone

Map Source: Terry Wallace

Impacts of these dams downstream?

Mekong River Basin: A lifeline for

•  China •  Burma-China •  Burma-Laos •  Laos-Thailand •  Laos-Cambodia •  Cambodia •  Vietnam

Water Wars •  When river basins span international borders

! Which riparian state can build water management systems? !  Dams

!  Canals

!  Hydroelectric Power Plants

! How much water can a country withdraw for its “needs”?

! Reservoirs ! Increased evaporation losses

•  Water rights reflect history not equity –  Militarily strongest nations have dictated rights and these

“historic” rights are hard to change

•  Water wars at the individual farmer level

The Nile

•  Egypt has dominated rights

•  Ethiopia and Uganda are hydropower dependent

•  Ethiopia and Sudan’s growing populations need water

•  ~30% of water evaporates at Lake Nasser (Aswan dam)

OECD, China, India, … or

OECD + (China or India or …) or

only OECD

And at what level of resource use?

What can nature sustain?

OECD, China, India, … or

OECD + (China or India or …) or

only OECD

At U.S. or EU or Brazil’s level?

What can nature sustain?

9 Billion

3 Billion

1.5 billion

OECD, China, India, … or

OECD + (China or India or …) or

only OECD

What can nature sustain? 9 Billion (Brazil)

3 Billion (EU)

1.5 billion (USA)

Mesa Verde: now a tourist attraction

Options:

High efficiency use of energy:

Broad based R&D in energy-climate science and technology:

Innovation Fund: If I was allowed to pick only 5 Priorities

•  Storage: 3X Battery for cars (Higher power and energy density and longer life). Fuel cells? Grid scale storage?

•  Solar PV at $1-2/Wattp installed & 200 GW/yr manufacturing capacity (16 x 2012). Address the issue of rare Energy Critical Elements

•  Forecasting and control systems

–  Smart Grid to integrate solar and wind & manage load:

•  Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

•  Nuclear Fuel Cycle: reprocessing & waste management

4 Infrastructure (Efficiency) Priorities

•  Cities and communities planned around energy efficiency

•  Public transport & electric long-haul railway

•  Energy efficient buildings

•  Solar/geothermal hot water and heat-ventilation-AC (HVAC) systems

What lies ahead •  Environmental degradation & loss of ecosystems/species

•  Water shortages in large parts of China and India

•  Accumulating evidence of Climate Change –  Impacts of intense heat & storms on infrastructure & agriculture

•  Uncertainty in timeline and scale of solar and wind –  Uncertainty in date & height of peak in GHG emissions

•  Volatility in price of fossil fuels for many countries –  Many countries will continue to not be able to afford clean

(or even fossil) energy systems and lack Energy Security

Policy will have to be made under uncertainty & stress

Oil, Coal, Gas Prices: Expect Volatility

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Source: BP Statistical Review 2012

Natural Gas

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Is China too big to be allowed to fail? •  Chinese leaders must deliver prosperity to maintain political

control by the communist party

•  China wants to be & is the manufacturing center of the world. It already has a large trade surplus with most countries.

•  China needs to dominate resources and markets to succeed

•  China’s rise has been unprecedented in scope & speed

•  China is central to discussions/policy on geo-politics (Syria, Iran, Pakistan, North-Korea, …), economy, sustainable development, climate change

•  Will China emerge as an enlightened world leader or remain self-centered and disdainful of human rights?

•  Can the world afford a single dominant manufacturing center?

Land routes & barriers to resources and markets

Change is happening

People are becoming more aware and concerned

People are asking for action

Alternate energy systems are maturing

Goal is to accelerate this transformation by moving from organic evolution to a planned/equitable one

Population stabilization •  Almost all the population growth is happening in the

lowest/poorest 25% (South Asia, Middle East, Africa)

•  2050: India !1.75 billion, China !1.44 billion

•  Will require enormous resources to integrate these large populations into knowledge societies and prevent systemic generational poverty

•  Access to information & travel has raised expectations

•  Can these expectations be met sustainably?

•  Can technology provide sustainable options?

Sustainable Development? •  The global system is being pushed to [over] the edge

of sustainability and natural recovery on all fronts making it vulnerable to catastrophic failures

•  Formulating consistent policy over decades in the face of uncertainty & costs requires exceptional leadership

•  Enlightened Governance

–  Outstanding Leadership

–  Trust

–  Transparency/No Corruption

–  Bi-partisan Politics

Munch’s 3-D view of our collective responsibility towards the global

commons and human impact on nature

My view: playing dice with nature

Extras

De-carbonizing the global economy

GDP CO2 Energy CO2 = Population ! ------------- ! --------- ! -------- Population Energy GDP

Population stabilization: a political hard sell

Prosperity: historically it has driven people, policy and politicians

Carbon Intensity: De-carbonize technology

Energy Intensity: Efficiency

Reading: “The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change”, Dessler and Parson, Cambridge University Press; “The Climate Fix”, Roger Pielke Jr., Basic Books, 2010

~+1% ~+4% ~-0.1% ~-1.5%