system and a heat wave event over sesa mesoscale convective a … · 2018. 11. 9. · balmaceda...
TRANSCRIPT
A case study on a mesoscale convective
system and a heat wave event over SESA
Group 5Balmaceda Rocio - Collazo Soledad - Martin Feijoó - Mercedes Poggi
Cases of study
A mesoscale convective system in SESA region with its maximum intensity occurred on 12/03/2005.
A heat wave in SESA region occurred from the 22/12/2013 to 30/12/2013.
GoalsFor the mesoscale convective system (MCS) case
● Compare the RegCM4.7 simulations event against different dataset of precipitation.
● Evaluate the sensibility of the RegCM4.7 for two different parameterizations of convection (Emanuel and Kain-Fritsch)
For the heat wave case
● Compare the RegCM.4.7 simulation against different dataset of temperature.● Compare the performance of an ESD model based on the analog method
against weather station observations.
Experiments set up
● Resolution: 20km → dt = 40 s● Nx = 76 // Ny = 85 ● Vert. Levels = 23● Projection = RotMercator● BC = ERA-Interim 1.5°
Parameterizations:
● PBL → Holtslag● Moisture → SUBEX● OceanFlux → Zeng et al
Convection Parameterizations:● Emanuel● Kain-Fritsch
Runtime
● MCS11/03/2005-00UTC → 14/03/2005-00UTC
● HeatWave15/12/2013-00UTC → 31/12/2013-00UTC
Results - RegCM4.7 comparison with OBS
● RegCM4.7 shows more accuracy with TRMM and CMORPH, although the event propagation doesn’t reach Uruguay
● Also RegCM4-EMA present a BIAS, underestimating the maximum precipitation (compared with TRMM and CMORPH)
RegCM - EMA
MCS Results - RegCM4.7 outputsRegCM - EMA RegCM - KF RegCM - EMA-KF
The PP coverage of both simulations are quite similar, but RegCM-EMA shows much more daily precipitation than RegCM-KF in the event representation
Heat wave - Results Mean Tmax during the heat wave
Krigging interpolation for SMN and INTA stations
0.75
0.52.5
RegCM overestimate the maximum temperature in
central Argentina
Heat wave - Results
Bias RMSE MAE Correlation
6.47 6.8 6.47 0.54
Non significant
Rosario
ESD Model Results
OBSERVED ESD
Spatial distribution of the mean Tmax for December 2013
OBSERVED ESD
Boxplot of Tmax for December 2013
heat wave
Buenos Aires Station
Conclusions● The two RegCM4.7 simulations of the mesoscale convective system manage
to represent the extreme event and its temporal evolution, although slightly underestimating its maximum intensity in comparison with the observed precipitation. The results of the simulations had greater agreement with TRMM and CMORPH.
● In most of the region the RegCM4.7 overestimates the intensity of the heat wave.
● The ESD model, on the other hand, underestimates the Tmax values in almost all the stations analyzed.