south carolina economic forecast 2017rfa.sc.gov/files/sc economic forecast 2016 1-13-17 (pg)...

SOUTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC FORECAST

2017

PRESENTED TO

BERKELEY CHAMBER OF COMMERCEJanuary 13, 2017

JANUARY 22, 2016

ByFrank A. RainwaterExecutive Director

South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office1000 Assembly Street

Rembert Dennis Building, Suite 402Columbia, SC 29201

(803) 734-2265www.rfa.sc.gov

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

FY 8

0FY

81

FY 8

2FY

83

FY 8

4FY

85

FY 8

6FY

87

FY 8

8FY

89

FY 9

0FY

91

FY 9

2FY

93

FY 9

4FY

95

FY 9

6FY

97

FY 9

8FY

99

FY 0

0FY

01

FY 0

2FY

03

FY 0

4FY

05

FY 0

6FY

07

FY 0

8FY

09

FY 1

0FY

11

FY 1

2FY

13

FY 1

4FY

15

FY 1

6FY

17

est

FY 1

8 es

tFY

19

est

FY 2

0 es

tFY

21

est

FY 2

2 es

tFY

23

est

FY 2

4 es

tFY

25

est

FY 2

6 es

t

SC PERSONAL INCOME FY GROWTH RATESActuals, Estimates, and Averages

10 Year AVG4.1%

20 Year AVG4.8%

30 Year AVG5.4%

Long Term EST4.75%

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis RFA – 173/lj/11/10/16 3

REMEMBER- 2007

* Peak before the Great Recession

4

2007 WORLD LEADERS

United States – George W. BushUnited Kingdom – Tony BlairFrance – Jacques ChiracGermany – Angela MerkelRussia – Vladimir Putin

5

2007 CULTURE

*Apple introduced the iPhone

*Jordin Sparks wins American Idol

*Drew Carey takes over for Bob Barker on The Price is Right

6

2007 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON

#1 – LSU

#5 – Ohio State

#21 – Clemson- Alabama (7-6)- Washington (4-9)

7

Federal

State and Local

($5,000,000)

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

Wag

es &

Sal

arie

s

Tran

sfer

Pay

men

ts

Divi

dend

s, In

tere

st,

& R

ents

Cons

truc

tion

Educ

atio

nan

d He

alth

Ser

vice

s

Fina

ncia

l Ser

vice

s

Info

rmat

ion

Serv

ices

Leisu

re a

nd H

ospi

talit

y

Man

ufac

turin

g

Prof

essio

nal

and

Busin

ess S

ervi

ces

Trad

e, T

rans

port

atio

n, a

nd U

tiliti

es

Min

ing

and

Logg

ing

Gov

ernm

ent

(Tho

usan

ds o

f Dol

lars

, Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted)

CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME COMPONENTSPre-Recession Peak versus to-Date (Quarterly)

Personal IncomeWages and Salaries by IndustryPersonal Income

Components

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - RFA - BW/LHJ 12/20/16 8

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

$0

$1-$

4,99

9

$5,0

00-$

9,99

9

$10,

000-

$19,

999

$20,

000-

$29,

999

$30,

000-

$39,

999

$40,

000-

$49,

999

$50,

000-

$59,

999

$60,

000-

$69,

999

$70,

000-

$79,

999

$80,

000-

$89,

999

$90,

000-

$99,

999

$100

,000

-$10

9,99

9

$110

,000

-$11

9,99

9

$120

,000

-$12

9,99

9

$130

,000

-$13

9,99

9

$140

,000

-$14

9,99

9

$150

,000

-$15

9,99

9

$160

,000

-$16

9,99

9

$170

,000

-$17

9,99

9

$180

,000

-$18

9,99

9

$190

,000

-$19

9,99

9

$200

,000

-$22

4,99

9

$225

,000

-$24

9,99

9

$250

,000

-$29

9,99

9

$300

,000

-$39

9,99

9

$400

,000

-$49

9,99

9

$500

,000

-$99

9,99

9

$1,0

00,0

00-$

1,99

9,99

9

$2,0

00,0

00 +

Num

ber o

f Ret

urns

SC INCOME TAX RETURNS BY FEDERAL ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME

All Single/Head of Household/Married Separate Returns All Married Joint Returns

Source: SC Individual income tax federal return sample of 87% inflated to total returns 174A – RFA/lhj/12/15/16 9

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$0

$1-$

4,99

9

$5,0

00-$

9,99

9

$10,

000-

$19,

999

$20,

000-

$29,

999

$30,

000-

$39,

999

$40,

000-

$49,

999

$50,

000-

$59,

999

$60,

000-

$69,

999

$70,

000-

$79,

999

$80,

000-

$89,

999

$90,

000-

$99,

999

$100

,000

-$10

9,99

9

$110

,000

-$11

9,99

9

$120

,000

-$12

9,99

9

$130

,000

-$13

9,99

9

$140

,000

-$14

9,99

9

$150

,000

-$15

9,99

9

$160

,000

-$16

9,99

9

$170

,000

-$17

9,99

9

$180

,000

-$18

9,99

9

$190

,000

-$19

9,99

9

$200

,000

-$22

4,99

9

$225

,000

-$24

9,99

9

$250

,000

-$29

9,99

9

$300

,000

-$39

9,99

9

$400

,000

-$49

9,99

9

$500

,000

-$99

9,99

9

$1,0

00,0

00-$

1,99

9,99

9

$2,0

00,0

00 +

Tota

l Fed

eral

Adj

uste

d Gr

oss I

ncom

e(M

illio

ns o

f Dol

lars

)TOTAL SC FEDERAL ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME BY FILING STATUS

All Single/Head of Household/Married Separate Returns All Married Joint Returns

Source: SC Individual income tax federal return sample of 87%; Nonresident income adjusted to reflect only SC taxable portion 174B – RFA/lhj/12/15/16 10

(40,000)

(30,000)

(20,000)

(10,000)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Cons

truc

tion

Educ

atio

nan

d He

alth

Ser

vice

s

Fina

ncia

l Ser

vice

s

Info

rmat

ion

Serv

ices

Leisu

re a

nd H

ospi

talit

y

Man

ufac

turin

g

Prof

essio

nal

and

Busin

ess S

ervi

ces

Trad

e, T

rans

port

atio

n, a

nd U

tiliti

es

Min

ing

and

Logg

ing

Gov

ernm

ent

Chan

ges i

n Em

ploy

men

t Lev

elCHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT LEVEL BY INDUSTRY

Pre-Recession Peak versus to-Date

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics RFA/BW/11/01/16 11

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

The Great Recession The 1990-91 Recession The 1981-82 Recession

Chan

ge in

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t CHANGE IN TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

Over a 106-Month Period Since Pre-Recession Peak

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics RFA/BW/11/01/16 12

Source: SC Department of Commerce 13

Appropriations, $7,580$7,477

Debt Service Reduction, $85

Homestead Exemption Reduction,

$17Revenue Growth , $307

Tax Relief Trust Fund, $578

Tax Relief Trust Fund, $584

$6,800

$7,000

$7,200

$7,400

$7,600

$7,800

$8,000

$8,200

$8,400

$8,600

FY 16-17 FY 17-18

(Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs)

GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS AND REVENUEFY 16-17 and FY 17-18

4.0% GF Appropriation Growth

FY 18 Base Appropriations

3.8% Gross GF Revenue Growth

Source: RFA, JCS, 12/16/2016 14

Source: RFA, JCS, 1/4/2017

$7,000

$7,500

$8,000

$8,500

$9,000

$9,500

$10,000

$10,500

FY 16-17 FY 17-18

(Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs)

FY 16-17 AND FY 17-18 REVENUE

Contingency Reserve Fund FY 17 $87M, FY 18 $0 Prior Year End Surplus FY 17 $230M, FY 18 $0

Lapsed Appropriations and Litigation Recovery FY 17 $172M, FY 18 $6.5M Capital Reserve Fund FY 17 $131 M, FY 18 $139M

Tobacco MSA FY 17 $70M, FY18 $70M Cigarette Surtax FY 17 $132.3M, FY 18 $131M

Lottery FY 17 $435.6M, FY 18 $401M EIA FY 17 $752M, FY 18 $791M

Gross General Fund, FY 17 $8,158M, FY 18 $8,471M

Recurring

Non-Recurring

($156.5M) Difference

15

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

$3,200

Distribution toSubdivisions

Employee Salaryand Benefits

Case services Other OperatingExpenses

Special Items Debt Service

(Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs)

FY 17 GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS BY MAJOR BUDGET CATEGORY

40%

25%

17%

9%

6%

3%

Source: RFA, JCS, 12/15/2016 16

Source: RFA, JCS, 12/15/2016

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%FY

90

FY 9

1

FY 9

2

FY 9

3

FY 9

4

FY 9

5

FY 9

6

FY 9

7

FY 9

8

FY 9

9

FY 0

0

FY 0

1

FY 0

2

FY 0

3

FY 0

4

FY 0

5

FY 0

6

FY 0

7

FY 0

8

FY 0

9

FY 1

0

FY 1

1

FY 1

2

FY 1

3

FY 1

4

FY 1

5

FY 1

6

FY 1

7

GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS BY MAJOR CATEGORY,Percent of Total FY 90 to FY 17

Personal Services Other Operating Expenses Special Items

Debt Service Case services Distribution to Subdivisions

Employer Contributions

17

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

FY 90 FY 17 (Inflation Adjusted) FY 17 (Nominal)

(Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs)

APPROPRIATIONS BY MAJOR BUDGET CATEGORYFY 90 Actual, FY 17 Inflation Adjusted and FY 17 Actual

Distribution to Subdivisions Personal Services Case services Other Operating Expenses

Employer Contributions Special Items Debt Service

Source: RFA, JCS, 12/15/2016 18

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annu

al P

erce

ntag

e Ch

ange

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME

BERKELEY COUNTY

Personal Income (thousands of $)

Five-year average: 5.98%

Ten-year average: 5.93%

SC Five-year average: 4.71%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis/BW 20

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annu

al P

erce

ntag

e Ch

ange

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

BERKELEY COUNTY

Total Employment





0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annu

al P

erce

ntag

e Ch

ange

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN POPULATION

BERKELEY COUNTY

Population





0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Annu

al P

erce

ntag

e Ch

ange

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN 135-DAY ADM BERKELEY COUNTY

135-day ADM




Source: SC Revenue & Fiscal Affairs Office/BW 23

1980

2010

Goose Creek SC

Moncks Corner SC

1960

Gippy Dike Rd

3rd

St

Wappaoolah Rd

Tank

Rd

Mayfield Dr

8th

St

9th

St12

th S

t

14th

St

Young Ave

Vandross Rd

Treehouse Rd

Mel

lard

Dr

Wyn Way

Ayers Dr

3rd Ave

Loma Ln

Big

Cre

ekD

r

Dupree Ln

Hammer Ln

Tony Ln

Den

nis

Dr

Old

Hig

hway

52

Wap

paoo

lah

Rd

Estimated Population Center Map for Berkeley County from 1960 to 2010

Streets

Census Place

Legend

26

FORECASTS - 2017

• January 28 – Chinese New Year (Year of the Rooster)• June 10 – 2017 World Expo will open in Astana, Kazakhstan• August 21 – Total Solar Eclipse (Visit Columbia)

• September 15 - Spacecraft Cassini-Huygens, after having studied Saturn for 13 years, will be disposed of by plunging into Saturn's atmosphere

• October 26 – Release of JFK Assassination Records• December – SC population surpasses 5 million

27

south carolina economic forecast 2017rfa.sc.gov/files/sc economic forecast 2016 1-13-17 (pg)...

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