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The Role of technology futures analysis in E-‐government: A Systema:c Literature Review. Sánchez-‐Torres, JM., Miles, I. June 2017

Futures of a Complex World, Turku, Finland. June 12th, 2017.

The Role of technology futures analysis in E-‐government: A Systema:c Literature Review

By: Jenny Marcela Sánchez-‐Torres, Ph. D

Full-‐Time Professor -‐ Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Ian Miles, PhD. Full-‐Time Professor -‐ University of Manchester


Agenda

 Background  Method  Results  Conclusions


MoCvaCon

3

Background / Purpose / Method / Results / Conclusion and Future Work

Four years ago… •  Colombian government

–  Electronic government maWer at na:onal level –  as a foresight prac::oner

•  However… a short literature review found out: –  Most of the papers described effects, barriers, and cri:cal success factors

affec:ng e-‐government. –  Few papers described how these ini:a:ves have been designing and assessing. –  Few papers using foresight…

•  Despite of that fact, we did the project using foresight techniques. –  We designed an ICT public-‐policy and we implemented it

•  Since that :me, I have been thinking about this rela:onship.

– 


Key Concepts

4

•  Technology Futures Analysis, TFA: 2004 by the Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group

Forecas:ng Intelligence Foresight

Assessment

TFA Methods

(Eerola & Miles, 2011; Georghiou & Cassingena, 2013; Loveridge & Street, 2005; Popper (2008); Porter, A. L., Ashton, W. B., Clar, G., Coates, J. F., Cuhls, K., Cunningham, S. W., Ducatel, K., van der Duin, P., Georghiou, L., Gordon, T., Linstone, H., Marchau, V., Massari, G., Miles, I., Mogee, M., Salo, A., Scapolo, F., Smits, R.,Thissen, W., 2004)

•  Reflec:on futures alterna:ves •  Built medium and long term

visions •  Par:cipatory process

•  Decision-‐making and coordinated ac:on.

•  science, technology and innova:on policy-‐making.



Key Concepts

5

(Dawes, 2008; Infodev-‐CDT et al., 2002; Janowski (2015); Katz & Hilbert, 2003; OECD, 2016; UN, 2014, Sánchez-‐Torres, 2006, Anthopoulos, Siozos, & Tsoukalas, 2007; Bhatnagar, 2004, Concha & Naser, 2012, Weerakkody, 2012 ).


Electronic Government. 1998 ICT

Services

Transforms

Processes

Trust Transparency Accountability

Communica:on

Ci:zens One-‐way

approach •  Offering services

MulC-‐track approach •  Joint to ci:zens and different stakeholders •  Offering services •  Solving problems •  Designing policies

①  ② 


Problem to solve

6

Problem / Purpose / Method / Results / Conclusion and Future Work

is related to both technological and innova:on maWers. requires a policy-‐making process. should be a par:cipatory (democra:c) process for designing e-‐government issues.

e-‐government

TFA is useful for building long-‐term vision on Science, Technology and innova:on policy-‐making. could be a par:cipatory way for policy-‐making.

The ques:ons arise are: How has TFA contributed in e-‐government?

How has parCcipatory TFA contributed in e-‐government?


Purpose

7


•  To inquire the role of TFA in e-‐government ini:a:ves. •  This means mapping its features in terms of TFA methods, its rela:onships, paying special aWen:on to the role of par:cipatory TFA.


Method

8


Step 1. Defining oriented quesCons

Step 2.Search strategy based

ONLY in SCOPUS

Step 3. SelecCng papers

Step 4. ExtracCng features Using web

pla\orm.

Step 5. Answered oriented quesCon


TFA results Problem / Purpose / Method / Results / Conclusion and Future Work

Expert Opinion Family Workshops Interviews Surveys Delphi Expert & CiCzen Panels Focus Gruop DescripCve & Matrices

Family SWOT Road mapping Strategic life cycle IGO Content analysis

Monitoring & Intelligence Family Environmental Scanning Literature Review Benchmarking Patent analysis


TFA results Problem / Purpose / Method / Results / Conclusion and Future Work

✪  Most used method per family

✪ Most used methods

✪  Common used

methods

CreaCve Family: Brainstorming Decision Family: Strategic Planning DescripCve & Matrices Family: SWOT Modelling & SimulaCon Family: Cross-‐impact Monitoring & Intelligence Family: Environmental scanning Scenario Family: Scenario workshops

Brainstorming Workshops Surveys Expert Panels Literature Review

SWOT Workshops Environmental scannig Scenario workshops


TFA results


Combining methods are more effec:ve and more robust results are obtained from TFA processes (Popper & Korte, 2004; Robinson, Huang, Guo, & Porter, 2013; Saritas & Burmaoglu, 2015).

The whole TFA

process:

1.  brainstorming, sce

nario

wri:ng, literat

ure review,

and surveys.

2.  scenario wo

rkshops,

workshops, ci:

zens and

experts panels

.

To iden:fy tr

ends

for genera:ng

inputs


lts Problem / Purpose / Method / Results / Conclusion and Future Work

Publica:ons per stakeholders categories TFA results

!

Par:cipatory TFA

! !


Problem / Purpose / Method / Results / Conclusions and Future Work

Conclusions •  Despite of this small amount of studies •  TFA has had a role, especially, in the planning phase of e-‐gov Reflects a paradox because of the lack of strategic planning (Bolívar et al., 2015). –  In our opinion this paradox could be exist to two reasons:

•  IT technicians: quan:ta:ve data vr qualita:ve. •  Policymakers: to obtain results in the short-‐term vr to explore the challenges and opportuni:es of e-‐government in the long-‐term.

•  Tendency to prefer the family of expert opinion methods. Then, there was par:cipatory TFA. Reflects another paradox

•  TFA methods were used in an integrated way.


Problem / Purpose / Method / Results / Conclusions and Future Work

Future work

•  This study –  should use other sources i.e.: doctoral thesis, Na:onal Foresight Programs…

–  raises several ques:ons. –  invites to do a deep reflec:on about the reasons that allow these paradoxes exist by asking both prac::oners of TFA and designers of e-‐government


Thank you [email protected] [email protected]

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