Rick Santorum:

The Pennsylvania Perspective

February 25, 2012

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KEY FINDINGS

1. As former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has emerged as a leading contender for the Republican Party nomination for President, voters of the Keystone State maintain significant reservations about his policy positions and electability.

2. Santorum trails President Obama in terms of voters support in a presidential race in Pennsylvania, with the Democratic incumbent holding an 8 point lead over the Commonwealth’s former Senator. Santorum performs slightly better than his major GOP challenger Mitt Romney in terms of a match-up with Obama in Pennsylvania, with Romney trailing Obama by 11% in the state.

3. Just under half (49%) of Pennsylvania voters have an unfavorable view of

their former Senator, with about 4 in 10 maintaining a positive view of Santorum.

4. When asked to provide one word to describe Rick Santorum 37% of

Pennsylvanians chose a negative term, 30% chose a positive description and 33% selected a neutral word. Among specific words: conservative (13%); honest/trustworthy (10%); and extreme/dangerous (8%) were most commonly chosen.

5. A vast majority (80%) of Pennsylvania voters believe that Rick Santorum

speaks honestly about his beliefs, but a majority (51%) do not believe Santorum maintains the same beliefs and values that they do.

6. About 1 in 3 Pennsylvania voters has changed their opinion of Rick Santorum

since he left office in 2006, but his overall favorability rating remains unchanged.

7. Most Commonwealth voters do not believe that Santorum can beat President

Obama in the fall, with a majority indicating that his views on social issues are too extreme for him to be president.

8. About 2 out 3 Keystone State voters disagree with the claim that Rick

Santorum is too connected to Washington D.C. to understand the issues that face common Pennsylvanians.

9. In a hypothetical match-up between Santorum and Bob Casey Jr. in a race for

a United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania, Casey beats Santorum by 8%. While Santorum’s loss would be a replay of his 2012 defeat to Casey, he trims his margin of defeat from over 17 points down to 8%.

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METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a telephone survey of 625 registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania between February 15 and 21, 2012. The sampling frame for the study was drawn from a list of registered voters provided by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The list has been updated through a phone-matching process to ensure that the largest number of registered voters can be reached through telephone interviews. All interviews are conducted by individuals who have been trained in standard interviewing procedures. The total number of completions (625) results in a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. However the margin of errors for sub groups (i.e. Republicans, women, college educated) is larger due to smaller sample size. Percentages throughout the survey have been rounded upward at the .5 mark, thus many totals in the results will not equal 100%. The data has been weighted by the following categories: age, gender, and region. Up to 4 attempts were made for each phone number included in the sample. The AAPOR RR1 completion rate for the survey was 28%. The instrument was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D in consultation with staff members of the Morning Call. The analysis was written Dr. Borick. OVERVIEW: As Rick Santorum has emerged as a leading contender for the Republican Party’s nomination for president the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion Poll has sought to gain insight into how Pennsylvania’s voters view their former Senator. Santorum served two terms as the Keystone State’s junior Senator between 1995 and 2007. His tenure in Washington D.C. was brought to a halt in a devastating loss to Bob Casey Jr. in November of 2006. In that race Santorum suffered the largest margin of defeat of any incumbent in the nation, casting doubt about his political future both in Pennsylvania and beyond. Yet in 2012 Santorum has resurrected his political career, winning numerous GOP caucuses and primaries, and establishing himself as a prime conservative alternative to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Santorum. As Santorum and Romney take their battle to Romney’s home state of Michigan, the poll summarized in this report sought to find out where Commonwealth voters stand on Santorum five years after he left office. OVERALL VIEWS OF SANTORUM: While Senator Santorum has seen his political fortunes shift dramatically since losing his seat in the 2006 elections, voters in the Commonwealth appear to have nearly identical views regarding his overall favorability today as they did over five years ago. As Table One demonstrates, Santorum’s favorability ratings today are unchanged from the marks he had in the days preceding his loss to Bob Casey Jr. in the November 2006 Senate election.

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TABLE ONE

Rick Santorum’s Favorability Ratings Among Registered Voters in Pennsylvania

2006-2012

Favorable Unfavorable Neutral/Not Sure

November 2006 40% 50% 10% February 2012 39% 49% 12%

The survey results show deep divisions in opinions on Rick Santorum across political and demographic categories. In terms of party affiliation, Santorum is viewed favorably by about 2 out of 3 Republicans in the state, while over 2 out of 3 Democrats view him unfavorably. Among the Commonwealth’s independent voters Santorum’s numbers are fairly negative, with a majority (52%) of unaligned voters maintaining unfavorable views of the Republican presidential challenger.

TABLE TWO

Rick Santorum’s Favorability Ratings Among Registered Voters in Pennsylvania

By Party Registration Status

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Democrat 19% 69% 13% Republican 65% 23% 12% Independent 37% 52% 11%

Notably, Santorum is viewed more favorably by the state’s male voters than by their female counterparts. The survey findings indicate that while only 35% of Pennsylvania’s female voters view Santorum favorably, 43% of males have a positive view of their former Senator. The gap in views on Santorum is largest among Democratic and Republican women, with only 14% of female Democrats viewing Santorum favorably compared with 61% of female Republicans.

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TABLE THREE

Rick Santorum’s Favorability Ratings Among Registered Voters in Pennsylvania

By Gender

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion All Females 35% 53% 13% All Males 43% 45% 12% Female Democrat 14% 74% 13% Female Republican 61% 23% 15%

SANTORUM”S IMAGE: Santorum’s image among Pennsylvania voters can be examined through the terms they use to describe their former Senator. In the last Republican primary debate on February 22, 2012 the candidates were asked to select one word to describe themselves. When asked this question Senator Santorum responded “courage.” When Pennsylvania voters were asked to describe Santorum with a single word only 1 out of 625 respondents chose “courageous” to describe the presidential candidate. Instead Commonwealth voters turned to a number of other words to describe Santorum. When broken down into broad categories, 37% of the terms used to describe Santorum were negative, 30% were positive and 33% had neutral connotations. The most common words chosen were conservative (13%); honest/trustworthy (10%); and extreme/dangerous (8%).

TABLE FOUR “What is the one word that you would chose to describe Rick Santorum?”

Broad Categories Percent Responding Positive Terms 37% Negative Terms 30% Neutral Terms 33% Specific Terms (Top Choices) Percent Responding Conservative 13% Honest/Trustworthy 10% Extreme/Dangerous 8% Sneaky/Devious 4% Religious/Christian 3% Lacks Intelligence 3% Crazy/Insane 3% Honorable/Decent 3% Moral Integrity 3%

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THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Throughout the Republican primary campaign the issue of electability has played a major role. The ability to beat President Obama in November has been trumpeted by all the leading GOP contenders, with each contending they have the upper hand in terms of these criteria. With Pennsylvania once again playing its role as a key swing state, and with Santorum maintaining the position as a “favorite son,” there is considerable value in evaluating how the Keystone State’s former Senator matches up with the president in the Commonwealth. The survey results show that the president holds an 8 point advantage over Santorum in a head-to-head contest with Obama garnering 49% of Commonwealth voters compared to Santorum’s 41%.

TABLE FIVE Obama vs. Santorum

Candidate Percent Obama 49% Santorum 41% Other 4% Not Sure 5% Looking at the race across a variety of voters’ characteristics there are a number of notable splits in the electorate. Neither Obama nor Santorum is able to make substantial inroads among voters in their opponent’s party. The president wins only 14% of registered Republicans in the state, while Santorum takes a mere 11% of Democrats in Pennsylvania. Given the large advantage Democrats have in terms of registered voters in the state, and with the GOP turnout advantage likely to be offset by generally solid Democratic turnout in a presidential election year, the Republican candidate will need to perform well among the state’s independent voters. Unfortunately for Santorum the survey results indicate that he struggles against Obama among Pennsylvania’s independents, with the Republican challenger trailing the incumbent by a 55% to 33% margin. Santorum also struggles among higher-educated voters in the Commonwealth, losing to Obama by 19 points among voters with a college degree.

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TABLE SIX

Obama vs. Santorum by Political and Demographic Characteristics

of Pennsylvania Voters

Obama Santorum Some other Candidate

Not Sure/No opinion

Overall 49% 41% 4% 5% Democrat 80% 11% 4% 4% Republican 14% 79% 2% 5% Independent 55% 33% 4% 9% Female 50% 41% 4% 6% Male 50% 42% 3% 5% No College 43% 48% 3% 6% College 56% 37% 3% 4%

When compared to his primary opponent Mitt Romney, Santorum performs about the same in a head-to-head race with Obama. The president beats Romney by a margin of 11%, a mark similar to Obama’s 8% margin over Santorum. In their respective contests with Obama, Santorum performs slightly better than Romney among Republicans, while both Santorum and the former Massachusetts Governor struggle to win support from independent voters in the Commonwealth.

TABLE SEVEN

Obama vs. Romney by Political and Demographic Characteristics

of Pennsylvania Voters

Obama Romney Some other Candidate

Not Sure/No opinion

Overall 48% 37% 9% 6% Democrat 80% 9% 6% 5% Republican 12% 71% 12% 5% Independent 49% 30% 12% 9% Female 47% 39% 8% 5% Male 48% 36% 10% 6% No College 42% 41% 11% 6% College 53% 35% 7% 5%

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ELECTABILITY: The Pennsylvania electorate maintains substantial skepticism that Senator Santorum can beat Obama in November with less than 1 out 3 registered voters in the Commonwealth indicating that they think Santorum can emerge victorious in the general election. A plurality (45%) of state voters strongly disagreed with the premise that Santorum can prevail in November, with even a third of Republican voters doubting their former Senator could pull off the win 8 months from now.

TABLE EIGHT

Levels of Agreement with the Statement: “Rick Santorum can beat President Obama in the Presidential Election.”

Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Overall 13% 19% 14% 45% 10% Democrat 4% 7% 15% 65% 9% Republican 24% 36% 13% 19% 9% Independent 12% 14% 15% 47% 13% POLICY POSITIONS and BELIEFS Throughout his career Senator Santorum has devoted substantial attention to social policies such as abortion, contraceptives and gay and lesbian rights (e.g. gay marriage). His positions on these matters have drawn significant media and public attention and played a major role in his campaign to win the Republican nomination. The results of the survey provide evidence that Santorum’s stances on social policies remain very divisive in terms of the Pennsylvania electorate. A majority of Commonwealth voters believe that Santorum’s views on social issues are too extreme for him to be president, and by a 2 to 1 margin voters in the state do not think that their former Senator’s views on contraceptives are similar to their views on this subject. Voters in the state also tend to have conflicting views on Santorum’s stance on using military force against Iran. In particular, 45% of voters disagree that Santorum’s views on the use of military force against Iran would make the United States safer if followed, while only 26% agree with this contention.

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TABLE NINE

Levels of Agreement with Statements Regarding

Rick Santorum’s Policy Positions

Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

Somewhat Disagree

Strongly Disagree

Not Sure

Rick Santorum’s views on social issues are too extreme for him to be president.

36% 15% 18% 23% 8%

Rick Santorum’s views on the use of military force against Iran would make the United States safer if they were followed.

12% 14% 14% 31% 30%

Rick Santorum’s positions on contraceptives are similar to my views on this matter.

17% 10% 10% 44% 19%

One of Santorum’s greatest strengths in the eyes of Pennsylvania voters is their perception that he speaks honestly about his beliefs. The results of the survey show that 4 out of 5 registered voters in the Commonwealth think that Santorum is honest in the way he conveys his beliefs. Even 7 out of 10 Democrats in the State think that Santorum is being honest when he talks about his beliefs.

TABLE TEN

Levels of Agreement with Statement “Rick Santorum Speaks Honestly About His Belief”

Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Overall 60% 20% 7% 6% 6% Democrat 45% 26% 10% 11% 9% Republican 77% 15% 2% 3% 3% Independent 53% 19% 10% 11% 6%

While viewing Santorum as honest, Pennsylvanians seem to disagree with many of the beliefs that their former Senator holds. When asked if they agree that Rick Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that they have, a majority (51%) of voters in the Commonwealth disagreed with the statement. Santorum’s polarizing effect can be examined through the levels of agreement with the

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aforementioned statement, with 40% of the state’s electorate strongly disagreeing that Santorum shares their values, and 22% strongly agreeing that the former Senator’s values and beliefs are the same as theirs. The partisan splits on the issue of Santorum’s beliefs are even more obvious, with 2 out of 3 Democrats strongly disagreeing that Santorum shares their beliefs and values, and over 4 out of 10 Republican voters strongly agreeing that the former GOP Senator’s values and beliefs are aligned with theirs.

TABLE ELEVEN

Levels of Agreement with Statement: “Rick Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that I have”

Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Overall 22% 21% 11% 40% 8% Democrat 7% 9% 11% 65% 2% Republican 43% 34% 10% 11% 6% Independent 8% 24% 20% 42% 5% Notably, a majority of Pennsylvania voters who believe that Rick Santorum does not share their values and beliefs still think that Santorum speaks honestly about his beliefs. As can be seen in Table Twelve below, 2 out of 3 Pennsylvania voters who strongly disagree that Senator Santorum shares their beliefs and values also strongly agree that he speaks honestly about his beliefs. In essence the Commonwealth’s voters think that Santorum says what he believes but most do not agree with the beliefs he espouses.

TABLE TWELVE

The Relationship Between Santorum’s Beliefs and Values and His Honesty in Speaking About His Beliefs

Rick Santorum speaks honestly about his beliefs.

Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

Somewhat Disagree

Strongly Disagree

Not Sure

Rick Santorum

shares most of the same values and

beliefs that I have.

Strongly Agree 96% 4% 0% 0% 0% Somewhat Agree

69% 27% 0% 2% 2%

Somewhat Disagree

55% 24% 11% 3% 7%

Strongly Disagree

39% 27% 12% 17% 5%

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SANTORUM vs. CASEY – THE 2012 PERSPECTIVE: The 2006 Senate election in Pennsylvania marked a pivotal event in Rick Santorum’s career. After winning two elections to the Senate in 1994 and 2000, Santorum rose through the ranks of Senate Republicans to become Majority Whip. But in 2006, during a year that would prove to be disastrous for the Republican Party, Santorum was soundly defeated by Bob Casey Jr.. The nearly 18 point loss left many questioning if Santorum’s political career was over. Even as he campaigned in the early stages of the Republican primary campaign in 2011 the loss to Casey was regularly cited as a key reason why his chances of gaining the Republican nomination were considered a long shot. Nevertheless, Santorum’s success in winning a number of caucuses and primaries has placed him among the leading contenders for his party’s nomination. With both the history of the 2006 loss and Santorum’s recent surge in mind, it is valuable to see how Pennsylvania voters would consider a Casey-Santorum race today. Thus we asked survey respondents how they would vote if Santorum and Casey faced off again today. The results show that Casey would once again defeat Santorum, but Casey’s margin of victory would have been cut in half. A 2012 Casey-Santorum contest finds Casey winning 44 to 36, with 20% of voters preferring another candidate or unsure about their choice.

TABLE THIRTEEN Casey vs. Santorum: 2012

Candidate Percent Casey 44% Santorum 36% Other 7% Not Sure 12% Finally, would individuals who voted in the 2006 race change their minds if given the chance to vote in a Santorum-Casey rematch? The answer is largely no. As can be seen in Table Fourteen, an overwhelming majority (88%) of Santorum voters stay loyal to him in a rematch with Casey, while almost all (84%) of Casey’s 2006 supporters would once again support him. For those who didn’t vote in 2006 or can’t recall how they voted in that race, there is equal support for Casey and Santorum.

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TABLE FOURTEEN

Preferences in a 2012 Casey-Santorum Race by Votes in the 2006 Race

Candidate Preferences in 2012

Santorum Casey Other Candidate

Not Sure

Voted for Santorum in 2006

88%

6%

2%

5%

Voted for Casey in 2006

6% 84% 5% 5%

Didn’t Vote in 2006

34% 36% 5% 365

Can’t Recall 2006 Vote

35% 35% 12% 19%

CONCLUSION: With the Republican presidential primary season entering a crucial stretch, Rick Santorum has emerged as a leading challenger for his party’s nomination. Santorum’s rise among the GOP challengers has been fueled by his strong standing among conservative voters nationally and their perception of him as a candidate who says what he believes. The results of this poll indicate that Pennsylvania Republicans maintain very positive views about their former Senator and that most. share his beliefs and values. However, among Pennsylvania voters in general, Santorum’s standing is very much like it was in 2006 when he lost his Senate seat. Less that 40% of Pennsylvania voters have a favorable view of him, with a solid majority disagreeing with many of his policy positions and beliefs. These findings call into question Santorum’s claim that his history in winning elections in a key swing state make him a strong contender to defeat Barack Obama in November. As of February 2012, the views of Pennsylvania voters regarding Santorum demonstrate some of the key weaknesses that derailed his senatorial career in 2006: perceptions of Santorum as being extreme on social issues and weakness among both Democrats and independents in the Keystone State.

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Muhlenberg College/Morning Call “Pennsylvania and Rick Santorum”

Statewide Survey Final Frequency Report

Sample - 625 Registered Voters Fielding Dates: February 15 –21, 2012

Margin of Error = +/- 4% at 95% Level of Confidence AAPOR RR1 – Response Rate = 28%

Data Weighted by Age, Gender and Region Q1. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a (READ LIST)? Response Percent Democrat 46% Republican 39% Independent 14% With Another Party 1% Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania DISCONTINUE SURVEY Not Sure DISCONTINUE SURVEY Q2: Next, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable. First, President Barack Obama? Response Percent Favorable 48% Unfavorable 44% No Opinion 8% Q3: How about former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney? Response Percent Favorable 26% Unfavorable 51% No Opinion 23%

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Q4: Next, former United States Senator Rick Santorum? Response Percent Favorable 39% Unfavorable 49% No Opinion 12% Q5: And finally United States Senator Bob Casey. Jr.? Response Percent Favorable 42% Unfavorable 28% No Opinion 30% Q6 : Now, if the 2012 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? Response Percent Obama 48% Romney 37% Some Other Candidate (VOL) 9% Not Sure 6% Q7: If the 2012 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Barack Obama and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for? Response Percent Obama 49% Santorum 41% Some Other Candidate (VOL) 4% Not Sure 5% Q8: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Response Percent Yes 42% No 25% Not Sure (VOL) 32%

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Q9: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Response Percent Casey 40% Republican 25% Depends on the Candidate (VOL) 20% Not Sure 14% Q10: Now, if the 2012 U.S. Senate election was being held today and the race was between Bob Casey Jr..and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for? Response Percent Casey 44% Santorum 36% Some Other Candidate (VOL) 7% Not Sure 12% Q11: Which of the following best describes your actions during the 2006 U.S. Senate Election in Pennsylvania: Response Percent I voted for Rick Santorum 22% I voted for Bob Casey Jr 34% I voted for a candidate other than Casey or Santorum 4% I didn’t vote in that election 12% Or I can’t remember what decisions I made in that election 25% Not Sure 3% Q12: What is the one word that you would chose to describe Rick Santorum? BROAD CATEGORIES PERCENT REPONDING Positive Word 30% Negative Word 37% Neutral Word 33%

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SPECIFIC CATEGORIES PERCENT RESPONDING Conservative 13% Honest/Trustworthy 10% Extreme/Dangerous 8% Sneaky/Devious 4% Religious/Christian 3% Lacks Intelligence 3% Crazy/Insane 3% Honorable/Decent 3% Moral Integrity 3% Arrogant/Obnoxious 2% Good/Nice/Kind 2% Consistent/Dependable 2% Family 1% Prejudiced 1% Other Negative 16% Other Positive 9% Other Neutral 5% Not Sure/None 12% Please indicate if you Strongly Agree, Somewhat Agree, Somewhat Disagree, or Strongly Disagree with the following statements: Strongly

Agree Somewhat Agree

Somewhat Disagree

Strongly Disagree

Not Sure

Q13: Rick Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that I have.

22% 21% 11% 40% 5%

Q14: Rick Santorum can beat President Obama in the presidential election.

13% 19% 14% 45% 10%

Q15: Rick Santorum’s views on social issues are too extreme for him to be president.

36% 15% 18% 23% 8%

Q16: Rick Santorum speaks honestly about his beliefs.

60% 20% 7% 6% 6%

Q17: Rick Santorum is too connected to Washington D.C. to understand the issues facing average Pennsylvanians.

16% 16% 28% 28% 13%

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Q18: My opinions of Rick Santorum have changed since his days representing Pennsylvania in Congress

15% 20% 21% 37% 8%

Q19: Rick Santorum’s views on the use of military force against Iran would make the United States safer if they were followed.

12% 14% 14% 31% 30%

Q20: Rick Santorum’s positions on contraceptives are similar to my views on this matter.

17% 10% 10% 44% 19%

Q21: Finally, a few questions about yourself. In which of the following age categories does your current age fall. READ LIST _______ Response Percent 18-29 12% 30-49 30% 50-65 34% Or Over 65 24% Not Sure (VOL) <1% Q22: Which of the following best describes your political beliefs. (Read List) Response Percent Very Conservative 15% Somewhat Conservative 25% Moderate 31% Somewhat Liberal 17% Very Liberal 9% Not Sure (VOL) 3% Q23: What is your highest level of education? Is it (READ LIST)? Response Percent Less than High School 2% High School Graduate 27% Some College or Technical School 24% College Graduate (4 yr only) 32% Graduate or Professional Degree 14% Not Sure (VOL) <1%

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Q24: Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? (READ LIST) Response Percent White/Caucasian 89% African-American 5% Hispanic/Latino 3% Asian 1% Native American 1% Mixed Race 1% or Other <1% Not Sure (VOL) <1% Q25: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)? Response Percent Catholic 34% Protestant 42% Jewish 3% Muslim <1% Hindu <1% Other Religion/Agnostic 15% Or Atheist 4% Not Sure (VOL) 2% Q26 Which of the following categories best describes your family income? (READ LIST) Response Percent Under $20,000 11% $20,000-$40,000 19% $40,000-$60,000 23% $60,000-$80,000 12% $80,000-$100,000 10% Over $100,000 21% Not Sure (VOL) 3%

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Q27 Finally, would you be willing to be contacted by a newspaper reporter for a follow up interview? Response Percent Yes 27% No 72% Not Sure 2% Q28 Thank you for your help with the survey. We appreciate your time. (DO NOT ASK!) Response Percent Male 48% Female 52%

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SELECTED CROSSTABULATIONS APPROVAL RATINGS Barack Obama Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Democrat 79% 13% 8% Republican 12% 84% 5% Independent 47% 41% 13% Female 48% 46% 6% Male 47% 44% 9% No College 41% 51% 9% College 54% 40% 6% Mitt Romney Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Democrat 14% 66% 20% Republican 39% 40% 21% Independent 24% 45% 31% Female 27% 53% 21% Male 25% 52% 23% No College 24% 55% 22% College 28% 50% 22% Rick Santorum Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Democrat 19% 69% 13% Republican 65% 23% 12% Independent 37% 52% 11% Female 35% 53% 13% Male 43% 45% 12% No College 44% 41% 15% College 35% 56% 10% Bob Casey Jr Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Democrat 51% 20% 29% Republican 26% 42% 32% Independent 43% 17% 40% Female 41% 29% 30% Male 39% 29% 33% No College 39% 31% 30% College 41% 26% 33%

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Would you vote for Obama or Romney? Obama Romney Some other

Candidate Not Sure/No opinion

Democrat 80% 9% 6% 5% Republican 12% 71% 12% 5% Independent 49% 30% 12% 9% Female 47% 39% 8% 5% Male 48% 36% 10% 6% No College 42% 41% 11% 6% College 53% 35% 7% 5% Obama or Santorum Obama Santorum Some other

Candidate Not Sure/No opinion

Democrat 80% 11% 4% 4% Republican 14% 79% 2% 5% Independent 55% 33% 4% 9% Female 50% 41% 4% 6% Male 50% 42% 3% 5% No College 43% 48% 3% 6% College 56% 37% 3% 4% Does Bob Casey Jr. deserve to be reelected? Yes No Not sure Democrat 54% 16% 31% Republican 24% 41% 36% Independent 40% 15% 45% Female 40% 26% 35% Male 40% 26% 35% No College 38% 26% 36% College 41% 25% 34% Would you vote for Casey or Republican candidate? Casey Republican Depends on

Candidate Not Sure

Democrat 61% 6% 16% 18% Republican 13% 56% 21% 11% Independent 35% 16% 26% 23% Female 40% 27% 20% 13% Male 36% 27% 19% 17% No College 37% 29% 16% 18% College 39% 25% 23% 13%

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Would you vote for Rick Santorum or Bob Casey Jr. Casey Santorum Some other

Candidate Not Sure

Democrat 68% 12% 8% 12% Republican 17% 66% 3% 14% Independent 44% 30% 10% 16% Female 42% 36% 9% 13% Male 44% 37% 5% 14% No College 37% 39% 7% 17% College 49% 34% 7% 10% Results of the 2006 election Santorum Casey other Didn’t

vote Cant remember

Not sure

Ref.

Democrat 5% 53% 2% 11% 24% 3% 2% Republican 47% 9% 6% 10% 24% 2% 1% Independent 8% 31% 5% 31% 21% 3% 1% Female 25% 37% 5% 11% 16% 3% 3% Male 20% 27% 3% 16% 31% 2% 0% No College 22% 26% 5% 17% 24% 4% 3% College 22% 38% 4% 11% 23% 1% 1% What is one word to describe Rick Santorum: (Positive or negative) Positive Negative Neutral Democrat 14% 59% 27% Republican 48% 15% 37% Independent 29% 30% 41% Female 26% 39% 35% Male 33% 36% 32% No College 36% 33% 31% College 24% 41% 35% Rick Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that I have Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 7% 9% 11% 65% 8% Republican 43% 34% 10% 11% 2% Independent 8% 24% 20% 42% 6% Female 19% 24% 10% 42% 5% Male 24% 19% 13% 38% 6% No College 24% 23% 10% 36% 7% College 20% 20% 13% 44% 4%

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Rick Santorum can beat President Obama Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 4% 7% 15% 65% 9% Republican 24% 36% 13% 19% 9% Independent 12% 14% 15% 47% 13% Female 12% 19% 12% 49% 8% Male 15% 19% 16% 39% 11% No College 14% 23% 12% 37% 13% College 14% 15% 15% 49% 6% Rick Santorum’s views are too extreme to be president Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 53% 14% 11% 11% 11% Republican 13% 17% 26% 39% 5% Independent 42% 15% 24% 11% 8% Female 36% 17% 18% 20% 9% Male 35% 14% 20% 24% 7% No College 27% 16% 24% 22% 11% College 43% 15% 14% 22% 6% Rick Santorum speaks honestly Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 45% 26% 10% 11% 9% Republican 77% 15% 2% 3% 3% Independent 53% 19% 10% 11% 6% Female 58% 21% 7% 9% 5% Male 59% 21% 6% 6% 7% No College 59% 20% 7% 7% 6% College 59% 21% 6% 8% 7% Rick Santorum is too connected to Washington, DC to understand the issues of average Pennsylvanians Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 21% 18% 25% 17% 19% Republican 7% 14% 30% 42% 8% Independent 17% 16% 36% 19% 12% Female 14% 19% 26% 29% 12% Male 16% 14% 29% 27% 15% No College 15% 18% 26% 27% 15% College 16% 14% 30% 295 12%

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My opinions of Rick Santorum have changed since his days representing Pennsylvania in Congress. Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 14% 15% 18% 43% 10% Republican 14% 27% 25% 29% 5% Independent 17% 23% 22% 28% 9% Female 11% 21% 24% 37% 8% Male 17% 20% 19% 35% 9% No College 17% 18% 25% 32% 9% College 12% 23% 18% 40% 7% Rick Santorum’s view on the use of military against Iran will make the US more safe. Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 2% 6% 18% 46% 28% Republican 24% 27% 8% 11% 31% Independent 8% 7% 24% 34% 27% Female 12% 17% 15% 31% 25% Male 11% 13% 14% 29% 33% No College 14% 15% 13% 26% 32% College 9% 15% 15% 34% 27% Rick Santorum’s views on contraception are similar to mine. Strongly

agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Democrat 6% 4% 8% 65% 17% Republican 29% 15% 15% 22% 21% Independent 12% 15% 12% 47% 15% Female 13% 10% 14% 45% 18% Male 19% 10% 8% 44% 20% No College 20% 12% 10% 35% 24% College 13% 8% 12% 53% 15%