Renewable Energy

System integration Ljubljana, 7 June 2011

Frauke Thies

System criteria suggested by the International Energy Agency (May 2009)

Source IEA

THE BATTLE OF THE GRIDS 2030/2050 (ENERGYNAUTICS/GREENPEACE)

STRUCTURE

- BATTLE OF THE GRIDS OBJECTIVES

- 6 ANALYTICAL STEPS (EXAMPLE 2030 CASE)

- SPECIALTIES FOR 2050

- KEY FINDINGS

Concrete example for Europe

Objectives

Determine the grid infrastructure

required for Energy [R]evolution

Scenario

Explore different measures for

optimal integration of Renewable

Energy Sources into the European

electricity grid

Grid Study 2030/2050

Grid upgrades

Demand-side

Management

Storage

Back-up generation

RES dispatch priority in

power markets

RES distribution and energy

mix

Assumed Power Mix in the Energy [R]evolution

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

6-step analysis (example 2030)

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

Step 1: Grid upgrades

Model of European network in

DIgSILENT PowerFactory.

Lines are aggregated to form a 224-

node model connecting load centres.

Due to its simplicity it is well suited

for a general European grid upgrade

study.

European Electricity Grid Model

Methodology – Grid Planning

1

• Determine maximum generator availability based on extreme weather event and standard year (hourly data).

2

• Assign maximum generator availability and forecast load at each node in network model.

3

• Perform DC optimum power flow feasibility check with constraints

• Limit line flow to 80% of maximum capacity in order to cover for (N-1) contingency.

• Dispatched generation must be within specified limits.

4

• Assess where the bottlenecks exist and determine cost optimal grid upgrade.

• Only node to node upgrades are considered.

• Distribution grid not considered.

Extreme Winter Event

Low wind

production!

Extreme Winter Event

Low solar

production!

Extreme Winter Event

High demand!

Source: Reproduced with permission

of ENTSO-E by energynautics.

1. South to Central Europe

2. North Sea Offshore

Critical areas for grid upgrads

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

Step 2: Priority dispatch

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

Step 3: Additional grid links

12%

3%

By further upgrading the grid, the amount of curtailed energy can be strongly reduced

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

Step 4: DSM and smart grids

Demand aligned to PV output

Curtailed energy for Base Scenario 2030

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

Step 5: Storage

Curtailed energy for Base Scenario 2030 with storage

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

Step 6: Sensitivity: power mix

Curtailed energy resulting from dispatch

with inflexible conventionals

Cost of renewables curtailment

SPECIALTIES 2050

RE growth and phaseout nuclear/coal

Feasib

ility a

rea

Grid €149-173bn

Grid €528-679bn

Production: • Wind: 497GW • Solar PV: 898GW • Imported: 60GW

Production: • Wind: 667GW • Solar PV: 974GW • Imported: 0

Pathways to 100% renewables

Source: Reproduced with permission

of ENTSO-E by energynautics.

The proposed HVDC supergrid in 2050

(High Grid case)

1. Grid upgrades

2. RE dispatch priority

3. Additional lines to remove bottlenecks

4. DSM and smart grids

5. Storage

6. Sensitivity: power mix

Key results

Storage and DSM

Back-up Capacity

Grid upgrade

RES curtailment Security of Supply

RES Integration

1. Large-scale integration of renewables is entirely feasible

- Phase-out of inflexible power station (nuclear and coal)

- Gas as bridging technology, increasingly replaced with dispatchable renewables

(hydro, geothermal, CSP, biomass/biogas)

2. This requires a change in the energy mix

Optimised

Scenario 2030

Import

Scenario 2050

Regional

Scenario 2050

Distance

(thousand km)

HVAC 170 242 190

HVDC Onshore 19 125 26

HVDC Offshore 43 135 62

Total 233 501 278

Cost of

upgrades vs

2010 grid

(billion euro)

HVAC 20 59 31

HVDC Onshore 21 -49 300 – 452 65 – 89

HVDC Offshore 29 168 53

Total 70 - 98 528 - 679 149 – 173

© Copyright to energynautics GmbH.

3. Grid investments of € 70-98 bn by 2030 and € 149-679 bn

by 2050

4. Priority dispatch for renewables and smart system

management

BACKUP

Base

Scenario

2030

Base

Scenario

2030 with

DSM20%

Base

Scenario

2030 with

storage

Base

Scenario

2030 with

inflexible

generation

2030 Grid

optimised

for

curtailment

2050 Grid

with 60GW

import

2050 Grid

without

import

Total

generation

(TWh)

3886 3888 3863 3782 3867 4492 4543

RES

(TWh) 2537 2643 2543 2250 2567 4438 4517

% RES 65% 68% 66% 59% 66% 99% 99%

Curtailed

RES

(TWh)

98 89 77 150 32 219 294

% curtailed 4% 3% 3% 6% 1% 4% 5%

Grid

investments

(billion Euro)

50 to 70 - - -

19 - 28 in

addition to

Base

Scenario

2030

(70 - 98 vs

2010)

458 – 581 in

addition to

2030 (528 -

679 vs

2010)

74 - 79 in

addition to

2030

(149 - 173

vs 2010)

© Copyright to energynautics GmbH.

Overview of key results of all scenarios