renewable energy development in poland status for ‘2006...

by

Grzegorz WIŚNIEWSKIInstitute for Renewable Energy

(EC BREC IEO)Warsaw-Gdansk, Poland

[email protected]

Renewable energy development in Poland status for ‘2006 and forecast for 2020

Data gathering on renewable energies for New EU Member States and Candidate Countries

Workshop organised by:EC Joint Research Centre- Institute for Environment and Sustainability

with the support of Faculty of Engineering, Marmara University

Istanbul, Turkey, 12-15 November ‘2007

Starting point after EU enlargement:General economic and sustainability indicators for Poland’2004

as percentage of EU 25 ‘2003 or factor EU25/PL

factor 2,401,20,5Expected production/share of biofuels ‘2005 (%)/(factor EU25/PL))

factor 6,3512,72,0Share of green electricity cons. (%)/(factor EU25/PL)

factor 3,10209,9650,1Energy intensity, (kg of oe/1000€GDP)/(factor EU25/PL)

0,701691,2Expenditure on research (bln €)

7,00196 77213 782Employment (mln)

2,109 599202GDP (bln €)

8,46451 86438 231Population (mln)

% or factor„EU 25”Poland

Technical potential of RES in PolandEC BREC ‘2004

100,01750Total

25,4445Solar

16,1281Wind

12,6220Geothermal

2,849Hydro

43,1755Biomass

Share by resources [%]

Technical potential [PJ/rok]Resources

Structure and trends of RES production

Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Poland

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

179 991

167

1

10

100

1 000

10 000

100 000

1 000 000

Solar energy

Wind energy

Geothermal energy

Biogas

Biofuels

Hydro energy

Biomas

Logarithmic scale

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

Decimal scale

Source: EC BREC IEO

Structure of primary energy use in 2005

Gas13%

Oil21%

RES5%

Lignite11%

Hard coal50%

Waste water treatment plant biogas

0,8%

Biomass - district heating

2,9%

Landfill biogas0,3%

Biomass - electricity6,5%

Animal origin biogas0,1%

Hydro4,3%

Biomass - local heat83,8%

Wind0,3%

Biodiesel0,3%

Ethanol0,7%

Others6,8%

Primary energy use – 3932 PJ,within 187 PJ (4,76%) from RES

Structure of renewable energy sources in 2005

Primary production of solid biomass in TJSouces: EC BREC IEO for EUObserv’ER

570500-Animal wastes ( bones mills)

1 7001 500-Straw combustion

2 2702 000Other Vegetal Materials and Waste, of which:

60 00058 000Wood Waste

13001000Short rotation coppice

7 9807 300Wood pellet

108 450106 700Wood (logs,…)

180 000175 000Wood/Wood Waste/Other Solid Waste of which

20062005

Electricity from RESElectricity from RES in 2006in 2006

Wind6%

Hydro48%

Biomass & biogas

46%


RES support schemes development

Increase of the quota obligation from 9% in 2010 to 10,4% (compliance with EU 2001/77/EC directive).

2007

Obligation to achieve quota (7,5%) and to prove it (CoO) for electricity suppliers and producers (TPA) , introduction of CoO (TGC) trade; penalty followed by voluntary charge for non-compliance (240 PL/MWh); biomass co-firing as eligible RET-E but demand for increasing of biomass use from energy crops and wastes by 2014; increased quota (from 7,5 do 9% in 2010), distribution companies obliged to buy “physical” green electricity by the market price of “black” electricity

20052006

Obligation to achieve quota (7,5%) and to prove it (CoO) for electricity suppliers and producers (TPA) , penalty defined 30%, introduction of biomass co-firing as eligible RET-E

20032004

Obligation to achieve quota (7,5%) and to prove origin of electricity for suppliers and distribution companies, no strict penalty defined

2002

Quota obligation (7,5% in final sale balance) for electricity suppliers and distribution companies, no strict penalty

2001

Feed in tariffs, obligation for utilities to buy green electricity from sources <5MW, price same as for final consumers

2000

Quota obligation +TG

CQ

uota obligationFeed-in tariff

INVESTM

ENT SUPPO

RTThe TGC system in Poland, since 2006

-income for independent power producers

0,00

50,00

100,00

150,00

200,00

250,00

300,00

350,00

400,00

Electricity price (yearlymean balancing market

price, in 2006 31,5Euro/MWh)

CoO price - marketrelated

Total income of RESowner

Pric

e [E

uro/

MW

h]

Substitute fee, in 2006 64 Euro/MWh

Penalty, 130% of substitute fee

+ =

110

95

80

65

55

40

27

15

0

Comparison of green energy prices for utilities with final black electricity prices for wholesale market and with electricity for households and industry

Average income from green electricity supply to the grid

0

0,01

0,02

0,03

0,04

0,05

0,06

0,07

0,08

0,09

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

euro

/kW

h

Hauseholds

Industry

Whole sale black electricity prices

on balancing market

Economics of green electricity production in ‘2005 (source: EP)

185318200118106239133Biomass co-firing(2000 MW)

10431820011825239214Biomass CHP(10MW)

813182001182239237Large hydro(100MW)

26318200118-53239292Wind(30MW)

18318200118-39239300SHP < 5MW

Extras, 2004-2005zł/MWh

Total incomezł/MWh

Price of TGC. zł/MWh

Price of electricityzł/MWh

Differencezł/MWh

Mean price zł/MWh

Price

zł/MWh

20052004Type of RES-E

technology

Installed capacity of RES-E

1 548,4

In power-blocks with capacity at about

1700

1082,8176,0

36,8

252,82006 [MW]

Total

Co-firingHydroWindBiogas

BiomassRES

1 307,5

1002,583,331,9

189,82005 [MW]


Electricity generation from RESElectricity generation from RES

4 220 2031 314 337 2 028 984

256 345116 692

503 8462006 [MWh]

TotalCo-firingHydroWindBiogas

BiomassRES

3 760 301877 009

2 175 559135 292104 465

467 9762005 [MWh]


Green electricity production 2000-2005 [ GWh/year], according to changes

in the support schemes

0500

10001500200025003000350040004500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2000200120022003200420052006

Target for 201012 000 GWh

Current visions for RES-E in ‘2010

MG ‘2005* Updated vision of EC BREC IEO ’2006

• Biomass 4,0% 2,5%

• Hydro 1,2% 2,0%

• Wind 2,3% 2,5%

• Biogas - 0,5%

Total 7,5% 7,5%* Report of the Ministry of Economy MGiP to the European Commission, 31.08.2005

Too slow development of energy plantations and to little time remaining to 2010

Liquid fuels sector in PolandKey figures for ‘2004

Oil refineries: 7 refineries with the capacity 18 mln t of crude oil/year; domestic production of crude oil -4% onlyConcessions of the Energy Regulator (URE) in the oil sector:

• 78- for fuels production, • 122- for fuels storage, • 6488 for fuels distribution

Oil sector (medium and large companies only)gross income: 21 bln PLZ (app. € 5 bln)/yearMajor players; two oil groups: PKN ORLEN (app. 55% of vehicle fuels market), LOTOS Group S.A. (app. 27% of vehicle fuels market) and others: refineries & importers

Final consumption of vehicle fuels in Poland 1995-2006

01,0002,000

3,0004,0005,0006,000

7,0008,0009,000

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Particular years

Usa

ge (k

toe)

Gasoline

Diesel oil

LPG

Production of agriculture distillate (raw spirit) and the usage of bioethanol and the number of open agriculture distilleries (source EC BREC)

161,02172592006 110,8 220230-241,52005

45,2-48,5242195200476,2300210- 219,6200382,8330210200269,4350181200151,5380173,3200088,5620167,2199999,87002081998110,6840240,61997100,9900278199663,0950245199527,0n.a.2101994

Bioethanol[mln l]

Number of open agriculture distilleries

Agriculture Distillate[mln l]

Year

Usage and the indicators of biofuels usage

0,9244,984,3603640402006

0,4817,142,2474739192005

0,30038,3388639532004

0,49060,1360639412003

0,57065,3294041092002

0,46052,4256244842001

0,35040,6234348412000

Indicator acc. to energy value (%)tons

Esters thousand tons

Bioethanolthousand

Drive oil thousand tons

Petrol Thousand Tons

Year

Forecast of the biofuels use up to 2010 (Ministry of Agriculture ‘2006)

0,4750,3840,301mln tBiodiesel (RME)

0,3270,2820,236mln tEthanol

5,0004,253,5% energy

Share of biofuels

8,6308,2207,830mln tDiesel

3,8603,9203,980mln tGasoline

200920082007unitConsumption

Historical cumulative and yearly growth of solar thermal collectors

in PL [m2] (source EC BREC IEO)

1995 2935 4651 8220 1361021010

3010443243

69610

98507

126160

167750

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

yearlycumulatively

Main geothermal district heating plants in PL(sources: B Kempinska, for EC BREC IEO)

122,172,3TOTAL14,014,02004Strogard

2,30,32002Słomiki

5,63,22001Uniejów

10,23,81999Mszczonów

48,013,01996Pyrzyce

42,038,01993Podhale

Total capacity,

MWt

Geothermal only

capacity MWt

year of operation

startplace

Utilisation ‘2005 (in PJ) and utilisation of technical potential of RES (in%) in Poland

4,74to the primarily energy balanceCurrent RES contribution

10,7 (av.)187,112TOTAL0,030,15Solar0,20,5Wind

0,40,9Geothermal (incudingheat pumps)

16,27,8Hydro (excluding pumped storage)

23,5177,7Biomass% of potentialPJResources

Use of energy from RES

RES technical potential limitation: Nature 2000 Approved + officially submitted – ca. 18%

Approved + officially submitted + Shadow List – ca. 20%

Special Protection Areas(Approved plus Shadow List 2004,

OTOP)

Special Areas of Conservation (Officially submitted plus Shadow List

2006, WWF Polska)

Technical potential limitations – case study wind energy


Diversified distribution of potential on country area

www.ieo.pl500

7500800

500

500

9500

2500

2000

500

20

500

100

500

1000

600

2000

Potencja³ techniczny energii wiatru, GWh

0 - 100100 - 500500 - 20002000 - 50005000 - 1000010000 - 2000020000 - 26000

Overlapping of NATURA 2000 with areas of highest potential and concentration of investment activities

Investment activities not

uniform –challenge for grid on specific areas

Potential concentrated on areas of highest environmental

value

„National Energy Policy 2025”, aproved‘2005 Primary energy use in Poland till 2025 [Mtoe]

(reference –”coal” scenario)

9,27,3

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Export-import

Others

Renewables

Nuclear

Naural gas

Crude oil

Brown coal

Hard coal

7%7,5%

RES forecasts (1996-2004) for Poland ‘2020

--5,9-6,14,9-5,8Ministry of Economy, Energy policy up to 2025, 2004

7,6-14,38,2-10,7--

Fraunhofer ISI, EEG, KEMA, ECOFYS, REC, FORRES 2020: Analysis of the renewable energy’s evolution up to 2020, 2003

1,8-11,82,1-7,75,5-13,55,2-8,4ARE: Environmental energy scenario, 2002

8,8-13,06,1-10,88,2-11,25,5-8,2

EC BREC, ES: SFIRE modelling for Poland up to2020, 2001

--2,2-8,41,7-5,5EC- DGXVII, TERES II Country Report. Poland, 1996Forecasts

-7,5--EU enlargement treaty, 2003 – directive 2001/77/WE

--14,07,5Ministry of Environment, National RES strategy, 2000 Targets

2020201020202010ElectricityPrimary energyDocuments

Total production of energy & fuels in 2010, in TJ

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

Wind power plants

Small hydro-electric power plants

Photovoltaic systems

Co-fermentation biogas

Farm biogas plants

Landfill gas

Wood-fired CHP plants

Automatic wood-fired heating plants

Automatic straw-fired heating plants

Individual biomass-fired boilers

Rape oil methyl esters

Bioethanol

Geothermal heating plants

Solar air collectors

Solar water collectors

Note 1: bioethanol from lignocelluloses materials – not considered

Note 2: small scale agro- refineries considered only

National Renewable Energy Strategy ‘2001Overall target: 7,5% RES in TPE in 2010 & 14% in 2020

general note 1: bioenergy technologies marked in greengeneral note 2: large scale hydro excluded from the balance & support

Total share of liquid biofuels: 5%,

bioelectricty: 18% and bio-heat: 72% in

the total green energy and green fuels

production (RES) in ‘2010 (235 000 TJ)

Total bioenergy contribution in RES

generation –95%

=» competition over biomass resources for

heat, electricity and transportation fuels

Note 3: co- firing excluded from financial support

Conclusions1. Poland has considerable bio-resources availability;2. In 2004-2005 Poland improved support scheme for green

electricity, but it is not yet optimised and future bioelectricity/bioheat prospect is unclear

3. Biomass co-firing with coal in power plants is substantially supported and is encouraging farmers for production of energy crops but required better attention for sustainability in the full processing chain

4. Supporting scheme based on quotas/TGC needs active use of others policies and measures (RTD policy, subsidies, tenders or feed-in-tariffs for some RETs) to support small scale (to compensate „TGC privilege” for large scale)

5. Support for transportation biofuels based on a mixture of tax exemption and obligation for blending gives better opportunity for biodiesel development than for traditional bioethanol

6. There is a considerable development of solar thermal, with the support of national environmental funds (subsidies and low interest credits)