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VDMA | ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017

Source: www.siemens.com/presse

Recent Results of the

International Technology Roadmap

for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) 8th Edition, March 2017

A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube

PV seminar at UNSW

Sydney, March 23rd, 2017

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction

2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations

3. ITRPV – Results 2016

- Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products

- Cell - Materials, Processes, Products

- Module - Materials, Processes, Products

- Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

VDMA

ITRPV – Methodology

| Author ITRPV 2017 |

Working group today includes 40 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US

Participating

companies

Independent data

collection / processing

by VDMA

Review of data

Preparation of publication

regional chairs

Next

ITRPV

edition

SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEM MODULE

Parameters in main areas are discussed Diagrams of median values

Photovoltaic

Equipment

Chairs EU

Chairs PRC

Chairs TW

Chairs US

15 March 2017

VDMA

Review ITRPV predictionsWafer thickness (multi)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

µm

1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition

ITR

PV

2017

| 15 March 2017

ITRPV 8th Edition 2017 – some statistics

Edition 8th 7th

Contributors 40 33

Figures 60 50

Prediction quality since 2009:

Silver consumption trend well predicted and realized

(Silver availability depends on world market)

Wafer thickness trend bad predicted and no progress

(Poly-Si price depends on PV market development)

Review ITRPV predictionsSilver amount per cell

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

0,45

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

silv

er

pe

r ce

ll [g

/ce

ll]

1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition

ITR

PV

2017

| ITRPV 2017

VDMA | ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017

Outline




- Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products



- Systems


VDMA

PV learning Curve

| Author ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017

Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments

10-1106 107

10-1100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107

0.1

1

10

100

0.1

1

10

100

av

era

ge

mo

du

les

ale

sp

ric

e[U

SD

20

16

/Wp

]

100 101 102 103 104 105

cumulative PV module shipments [MW]

historic price data

LR 22.5 %

ITRPV 2017

Shipments /avg. price at years end:

2016: 75 GWp / 0.37 US$/Wp

o/a shipment: ≈ 308 GWp

o/a installation: ≈ 300 GWp

300 GWp landmark was passed!

LR 21.5% (1976 …. 2016)

dramatic price drop due to market situation

Comparable to 2011/2012, but faster

2012

12 / 2016 300GWp

2011

VDMA

Price considerations



ITRPV 2017

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

Spo

t P

ricin

g [

US

D/W

p]

Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module

Poly Si 26%Poly Si 12%

Poly Si 24%

Wafer 29%

Wafer 23%

Wafer 16%

Cell 20%

Cell 23%Cell 23%

Module25% Module

42%

Module37%

share 01_2011 share 01_2016 share 01_2017

reduction 01/2011 01/2016: ≈ 64 %

reduction 01/2016 01/2017: ≈ 36 %

(reduction 01/2011 01/2012: ≈ 40 %)

Dramatic price drop during 2nd half of 2016

Market driven drop

Poly-Si share increased again

High pressure on module manufacturers

1.59 US$

0.58 US$

0.37 US$

Module price break down [US$/Wp]

ITRPV 2017

0,413

0,072 0,087

0,462

0,13 0,058

0,32

0,135

0,086

0,395

0,24

0,138

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

01_2011 01_2016 01_2017

Module

price (U

S$/W

p)

Module

Cell

Wafer

Poly Si


Outline




- Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products



- Systems


VDMA

Silicon feedstock technologyWorld market share [%]

Siemens

FBR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Siemens FBR other

IHS

Ma

rkit

da

ta

ITR

PV

2017


Silicon – Materials: Poly Si Feedstock Technology

Poly Si price trend:

E 2012: 20 US$/kg

02/ 2016:

≈14 US$/kg

86%

10%

oversupply situation of 2016 relieved

Siemens process will remain mainstream

FBR shows potential for cost reduction

FBR share will be increased moderately

w/ new capacity

(2016 values in line w/ IHS Markit)

Other technologies (umg, epi growth, ..)

Not yet mature but available

02/ 2017:

≈16 US$/kg

Trend: Share of poly-Si feedstock technology

VDMA

Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (1)


Wire sawing for slurry based and diamond wire sawing; crystal growthThroughput per tool: 2016 = 100%

ITR

PV

2017

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

crystal growth per tool (mc-Si, mono-like, HPM) slurry based wire sawing

relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h] diamond wire based

Kerf loss and TTV for slurry based and diamond wire sawingIT

RP

V 2

01

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

[µm

]

Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing [µm]

TTV for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] TTV for diamond wire sawing [µm]

diamond wire sawing advantage:

enable faster kerf reduction

No big change in thickness variation is expected

Throughput increase in crystallization/wafering will continue

Trend: Kerf loss / TTV Trend: throughput crystallization/ wafering

Ingot mass in crystal growth

ITR

PV

2017

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

[kg

]

mc-Si mono-Si

Gen 6

Gen 7

Gen 8

VDMA

Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (2)


diamond wire wafering now mainstream for mono-Si

Throughut 2x – 3x faster than slurry based

For mc-Si change to diamond wire is ongoing

main challenge: texturing

For mono-Si For mc-Si Wafering technology for multi SiWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds other

Wafering technology for mono SiWorld market share [%]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds other

ITR

PV

20

17

VDMA

Wafer – Processes: texturing of mc-Si wafers


Different texturing technologies for mc-SiWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

201

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

standard acidic etching Wet Nano-texture technology Reactive Ion Etching (RIE)

• Acidic texturing is:

mature and high throughput process

changes in “standard” will apear

• Next step:

wet nano texturing, esp. for diamond wire

• RIE share is expected to increase “but”

no cost efficient alternative

Wet processing remains mainstream in mc-Si texturing

Trend: market share of mc-Si texturing technologies

VDMA

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

ITRPV Edition

Waferthickness [µm]

2009 2015 2017

Wafer – Product: Wafer thickness trend

| Author ITRPV 2017

| 15 March 2017

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

[µm

]

Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology

Still no progress in mc-Si thickness reduction

180 µm mc-Si preferred thickness since 2009

Thickness reduction expected to start for mono-Si

• cost reduction potential

• diamond wire will support

New module technologies should enable

thickness reduction Mono-Si wafer: thickness reduction starts

VDMA

Wafer – Product: market share of material types

| Author ITRPV 2017

| 15 March 2017

Different wafer typesWorld market share [%]

multi

mono

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

p-type mc p-type HPmc p-type monolike p-type mono n-type mono

ITR

PV

2017

IHS

Ma

rkit

d

ata

Casted material is still dominating today with > 60%

Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type)

casted-Si domination is not for ever:

Trend of last years will continue

• Casting technology:

HP mc-Si will replace standard mc-Si

no “come back” of mono-like expected

• Mono technology:

n-type material share will increase

n- + p-type market share today ≈ 35%

(2016 values are in line w/ IHS Markit)

• p-type material is expected to stay dominant

mainly due to progress in LID regeneration

Trend: share of c-Si material types

| ITRPV 2017

VDMA

Wafer – market share of wafer dimensions (new)

| ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017

Different mc-Si wafer sizesWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm²

161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm²

Different mono-Si wafer sizesWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm²

161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm²

Trend: mono-Si Trend: mc-Si

Fast switch to new format:

New mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm²

Larger formats are upcoming

Transition to new format in 2017

Expected new mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm²

Larger formats may occur after 2020


Outline







- Systems


VDMA

Trend for remaining silver per cell (156x156mm²)IT

RP

V 2

01

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Am

ou

nt o

f sil

ver

per

cell

[m

g/c

ell]

0

100

200

300

400

2009 2015 2017

Remaining Silver / Cell [mg]

2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

Cell – Materials: Silver (Ag) per cell


Good prediction of Ag reduction continues

2009 300 mg

2016 100 mg reached

2017 90 mg expected

Ag accounts in 2016 for ≈ 8% of cell conversion cost

• Ag reduction is mandatory and continues

• delays substitution by Cu or other material

No break through for lead free pastes so far

Market introduction depends on performance

2016: 100mg

≈ 21 t / GWp @ 19.6%

548 $/kg

≈ 1.1 $cent/ Wp*

* avg. cell efficiency 19.6 % ≈ 4.8 Wp/cell

Ag will stay main metallization in c-Si technology

VDMA

Cell – Processes: cell production tool throughputs


Cell production tool throughputIT

RP

V 2

017

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

11.000

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

[Wa

fer/

h]

chemical processes, progessive scenario

chemical processes, evolutional scenario

themal processes, progressive scenario

thermal processes, evolutional scenario

metallisation & classification processes, progressive scenario

metallisation & classification processes, evolutional scenario

Trend: tool throughput increase + synchronization of frontend/backend

Wet benches are leading today with > 7800 wf/h

Throughput increase continues

Challenge: increase throughput + Improve OEE

Two throughput scenarios:

Progressive = new high throughput tools

Evolutionary = continuous improvement

of existing tools (debottlenecking,

upgrades…)

VDMA

Cell – Processes: in line monitoring in cell production (new)


Inline process control World market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

automatc optical inspection (AOI) after front/back silver & back Aluminum print

electroluminescence (EL) imaging

infrared (IR) imaging for hotspot detection

Inline process control World market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

optical quality control after antireflectioncoation (AR) coating

incomming wafer inspection

sheet resistance measurement after diffusion

Trend: in-line process control backend/test Trend: in-line process control frontend

AOI is widely used in printing 2016: 70%

Inspection at cell testing:

EL use will expand (currently 5% only)

IR inspection is not widely used

SiNx quality control has constant share – 50%

Incoming wafer inspection will exceed 30% after 2021

Emitter sheet rho in-line control will increase

VDMA

Cell – processes: c-Si metallization technologies


Different front side metalization technologiesWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

201

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

screen printing stencil printing direct plating on Si plating on seed layer

Different back side metalization technologiesWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

sctreen printing plating PVD (evaporation/sputtering)

Front side metallization technologies Rear side metallization technologies

Screen printing remains main stream metallization technology

Plating is expected for rear and front side

For rear side PVD methods may appear

VDMA

Cell – processes: finger width / number of bus bars / bifaciality


Front side metallization paramters

ITR

PV

20

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

[µm

]

Finger width Alignment precision

Bifacial cell technologyWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

201

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

monofacial c-Si bifacial c-Si

Busbar technologyWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

3 busbars 4 busbars 5 busbars busbarless

Trend: Finger width / alignment precision

Trend: number of bus bars (BB)

Trend: market share of bifacial cells

Front side grid finger width reduction continues

2016: < 50µm reached!

Enables Ag reduction, requires increase of number of busbars

4BB are mainstream – 3 BB will disappear

Alignment precision will improve to <10µm @3 sig.

Selective emitters + Bifacial cells require good alignment

Bifacial cells will increase market share

monofacial cells

VDMA

Cell – processes: recombination current densities


Recombination current densities

ITR

PV

201

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Reco

mb

inati

on

cu

rren

t [f

A/c

m2]

J0 bulk p-type multi J0 bulk p-type mono

J0 front p-type material J0 rear p-type material

J0 bulk n-type mono SHJ or back contact J0 front/rear n-type mono SHJ or back contact

p- type: reducing recombination losses is on a good way

n-type: overcomes p-type bulk material limitations

J0bulk

will be further reduced by optimizing crystallization

2010 2016

p-type mc-Si: 650 240 fA/cm²

• further reductions will appear:

2016 2017 2027

p-type mc-Si: 240 180 32 fA/cm²

p-type mono-Si: 125 100 30 fA/cm²

n-type mono-Si: 25 = 25 15 fA/cm²

J0front / J0rear

Further reductions by > 50% to < 50 fA/cm²

p-type improvements are limited at the front side

(i.e. need of improved diffusion / new pastes)

Wide use of rear side passivation concepts

Trend: J0bulk, J0front, J0rear

VDMA

Cell – processes: emitter formation for low J0front


Emitter sheet resitance for phosphorous doping (p-type cells)

ITR

PV

20

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Oh

ms

/ s

qu

are

Different phosphorous emitter technologies for p-type cellsWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion selective emitter by laser dopingselective emitter by etch back homogenous emitter by ion implantationselective emitter by ion implantation

Trend: emitter sheet resistance Trend: emitter formation technologies

Essential parameter for J0front

95…100 Ω/ are standard today

Increase to 135 Ω/ is predicted

Challenge for tools and front pastes

Mainstream: homogenous gas-phase diffusion

selective doping: etch back or laser doping

Ion implant stays niche

VDMA

Cell – processes: technology for low J0rear


Different rear side passivation technologiesWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

PECVD AlOx + capping layer ALD AlOx + capping layer PECVD SiONx

Trend: rear side passivation technologies

Rear side passivation is mandatory for PERC

PECVD AlOx will stay mainstream

ALD will hold up to 10 %

SiONx will disappear

ITRPV prediction for J0rear were good

• BSF cannot deliver required low J0rear

• PERC takes over

• competing technologies in PERC

PECVD Al2O3 + capping

Al2O3 ALD + capping

PECVD SiONx/SiNy etc.

2009 2017

780 120 fA/cm²

VDMA

Cell – Products: cell technologies / cell efficiency trends


Average stabilized efficiency values for Si solar cells (156x156mm²)

ITR

PV

20

17

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

sta

bil

ize

d c

ell

eff

icie

nc

y

BSF cells p-type mc-Si BSF cells p-type mono-Si

PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT cells p-type mono-Si

PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-Si

back contact cells n-type mono-Si

Trend: market share of cell concepts

2016: PERC ≈15% (in line w/ IHS Markit)

Trend: stabilized cell efficiencies;

p-type PERC outperforms

Different cell technologyWorld market share [%]

BSF

PERC

other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

BSF PERC/PERL/PERT Si-herterojunction (SHJ) back contact cells Si-based tandem

ITR

PV

20

17

IHS

Ma

rkit d

ata

Si-tandem

PERC is gaining market share (20% 2017)

BSF share is shrinking

Back contact + HJ: slow increasing share

Si tandem: under development

p-type mono PERC will reach n-type performance

mc-Si PERC is about to outperform mono BSF

n-type IBC + HJ for highest efficiency applications

stabilized >21% p-type mono PERC is in production

PERC


Outline



3. ITRVP – Results 2016




- Systems


VDMA

Module – Materials: front cover material


Different front cover materialsWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

non-structured & non-coated front glass AR-coated front glass deeply structured front glass

Expected lifetime of AR-coating on module front glass

ITR

PV

20

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

[ye

ars

]

Trend: market share of front cover material Trend: lifetime of AR coating

AR coated glass is mainstream AR coating lifetime will increase to 25 years

VDMA

Module – Processes: interconnection technology


Different techologies for cell interconnectionWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

lead-containing soldering lead-free soldering conductive adhesive

Different cell interconnect materialsWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Cu-ribbon Cu-wires structured foils shingled/overlapping cell

Trend: cell interconnection technology Trend: cell connection material

Expanding market share:

lead free soldering + conductive adhesives

Ribbons/wires will remain most widely

used cell connection material

VDMA

Module – Products: module power outlook


Trend of Cell to Module power ratioThroughput increase [%] 2016 = 100%

ITR

PV

20

17

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

104%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

acidic textured multi-Si alcaline textured mono-Si

Module Power for 60-cell (156x156mm²) module

ITR

PV

2017

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Mo

du

le P

ow

er

[Wp

]

BSF p-type mc-Si BSF p-type mono-Si

PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT p-type mono-Si

PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) n-type mono-Si

back contact cells n-type mono-Si

Trend: cell to module power ratio (CTM) Trend: module power of 60 cell (156x156mm²)

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 30 | 15 March 2017

CTM will increase to > 100%

Acidic texturing has higher CTM 60 cell modules 2017:

Mono p-type PERC: 300 W are standard

Multi p-type PERC: 285 W are common

VDMA

Module – Products: framed modules and J-Boxes


Fameless c-Si modules World market share [%]

ITR

PV

2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

framed frameless

Different frame materialsWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Aluminum Plastic other

Trend: share of frameless c-Si modules Trend: share of smart J-Boxes "smart" Junction-Box technologyWorld market share [%]

ITR

PV

201

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

standard J-Box without additional function microinverter (DC/AC) DC/DC converter

Al-frames will stay mainstream

frameless for niche markets

Standard J-Box remains mainstream

Smart J-Boxes for niche applications

VDMA

Module – Products: module size


Different cell dimensions in c-Si modules World market share [%]

ITR

PV

201

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

full cell half cell quarter cell

Different module sizes (full cell) World market share [%]

ITR

PV

20

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

60-cell 72-cell 96-cell other

Trend: share of cell dimensions Trend: share of module size (full cell)

Full cell will remain main stream

half cell implementation started!

quarter cells – currently a niche

Big is beautiful: 72 cell module share will increase

60 cell modules mainstream until 2020

VDMA

Module – Products: module reliability (new)


Waranty requirements & degradation for c-Si PV modules IT

RP

V 2

017

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

3,5%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

de

gra

da

tio

n [%

]

wa

rra

nty

[y

ea

rs]

Performance waranty [years]

Product waranty [years]

Initial degardation after 1st year of operation [%]

Degradation per year during performance waranty [%]

Trend: warranty conditions and degradation for c-Si modules

Product warranty will remain 10 years

Performance warranty 2024+: 30 years

degradation: Initial / linear/year

2016: 3.0 % / 0.7%

2017: 2.5 % / 0.68%

2019+: 2.0 % / 0.68%

2021+: 2.0 % / 0.60%


Outline







- Systems


VDMA

Systems – Balance of system (BOS) for power plants


Cost elemements of PV System in US and EuropeFor Systems > 100 kW

ITR

PV

201755%

45%36% 33% 31% 29%

8%

7%

7%6%

5%5%

13%

12%

11%10%

8%8%

12%

11%

10%10%

9%8%

12%

11%

11%11%

10%

9%

100%

87%

75%70%

64%

58%

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground

Cost elemements of PV System in AsiaFor Systems > 100 kW

ITR

PV

20

1759%

53%45% 43% 40% 38%

8%

7%

7%6%

6%5%

6%

6%

5%5%

5%5%

13%

13%

12%12%

11%11%

15%

15%

15%15%

15%

11%

100%

94%

84%81%

77%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground

Trend: BOS in Europe and US Trend: BOS in Asia

Module costs still significant

Costs in Asia are assumed to be significant lower

VDMA

Systems – Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE)


Trend: LCoE progress – a minimum approach

Calculated LCOE values for different insolation levels

ITR

PV

2017

0,0770,073

0,065 0,0630,059

0,0540,051

0,0490,043 0,042

0,0390,036

0,039 0,0370,033 0,032 0,030

0,027

970911,8

814,8785,7

746,9

679

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

Assu

med

sys

tem

pri

ce [U

SD

/KW

p]

LC

OE

[U

SD

/kW

h]

1000 kWh/KWp 1500 kWh/kWp 2000 kWh/kWp assumed system price

LCoE depends strongly on local conditions ~5.7 US$ct/kWh lowest auction bidder in GER 2016** (avg. 7.7 $ct)

~2.42 US$ct/kWh possible near Abu Dhabi* today * http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-in-deal-to-build-1.2GWp-solar-plant-in-Abu-Dhabi

** http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics/danish-bidders-win-cross-border-pv-tender

System prices

2016: 970 $ / kWp

2027: <680 $ / kWp

LCoE

2016: 3.9 ….. 8 $ct/kWh (GER avg. 7.7 $ct**)

2027: 2.7 ….. 5 $ct/kWh are ralistic

• System live times of 25 years are assumed

Next steps to further reduce LCoE:

extended service live to 30 years

(supported by performance warranty trend)

further efficiency improvements

+ cost down measures

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-in-deal-to-build-1.2GWp-solar-plant-in-Abu-Dhabi
























http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics/danish-bidders-win-cross-border-pv-tender















Outline







- Systems


VDMA

Outlook: in detail view at PV learning curve

| ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017


10-1106 107

10-1100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107

0.1

1

10

100

0.1

1

10

100

av

era

ge

mo

du

les

ale

sp

ric

e[U

SD

20

16

/Wp

]

100 101 102 103 104 105


historic price data

LR 22.5%

LR 39.0% (2006-2016)

ITRPV 2017

Learning curve for module price as a function of cumulative shipments

103 107

103 104 105 106 107

0.1

1

10

0.1

1

10

av

era

ge

mo

du

les

ale

sp

ric

e[U

SD

20

16

/Wp

]

LR 26.2% - per piece learning

104 105 106


historic price data

LR 22.5%

LR 39.0% (2006-2016)

Wp learning only (2010 -2016)

LR 6.8% - Wp learning only

per piece learning only (2010-2016)

ITRPV 2017

1976-2016: LR= 22.5%

2006-2016: LR= 39.0%

ITRPV finding 2010-2016:

Wp learning ~ 7% (continually)

per piece learning ~26% (market influenced)

Learning was and will always be

a combination of:

efficiency increase

+ continues cost reduction per piece

= cost reduction of PV generated electricity

But how will PV proceed in future?

Approach: logistic growth

exemplified by nature:

VDMA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

pla

nt

hig

ht

[cm

]

days after seeding

growth of a Tomato

Tombolino

Spreading of PV – like a plants life: An Experiment

10/26/2016 ITRPV 2017 Page 23 |

PV experiment: Investigation of the growth of a Tomato plant*

watching milestones in a tomato plant’s live

* Plant grown in Thalheim April – July 2016

shooting

singulation

start fertilizing

being in flower

developing fruits

Parameter set: G = 1.12 m k = 0.07; c = 67 d

𝑵 𝒕 =𝑮

𝟏 + 𝒆𝒌(𝒄−𝒕)

VDMA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

pla

nt

hig

ht

[cm

]

days after seeding

growth of a Tomato (Tombolino)

Tombolino

Spreading of PV – like a plants life: An Experiment

15 March 2017 | Author: ITRPV 2016 Page 23 |

PV experiment: Investigation of the growth of a Tomato plant*

PV is starting

* Plant grown in Thalheim April – July 2016

shooting

singulation

start fertilizing

being in flower

developing fruits

PV is at the beginning

ITRPV industry outlook:

future PV Installation and

future PV production requirements

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

pla

nt

hig

ht

[cm

]

days after seeding

growth of a Tomato (Tombolino)

AproximationParameter set: G = 1.12 m k = 0.07; c = 67 d

𝑵 𝒕 =𝑮

𝟏 + 𝒆𝒌(𝒄−𝒕)

VDMA

PV market trend until 2050: logistic growth

| ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017

Installation forecast: Scenario 3 (high)

ITR

PV

20

17

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

Annual M

ark

et [G

Wp]

Glo

bal I

nsta

llations [G

Wp]

Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market Shipments

Approach: 3 scenarios for 190

different countries in 4 regions

Asia / America / Africa / EU

ITRPV finding:

- Shipments until 2016

slightly above all scenarios

- Annual PV market:

335 GWp/a to 800 GWp/a

Replacement rate = key to

overcome down cycles

Evolutionary technology

development works

for all scenarios

Scenario 3 “high”: 9.2 TWp/ 14.3 PWh (< 10 % primary energy)

VDMA

Summary

| ITRPV 2017 | 15 March 2017

• Silicon PV will remain a fast developing technology

• Further reductions of c-Si PV manufacturing cost are possible

without sacrificing quality and reliability

cell efficiency improvements will support the cost reduction

• Silicon PV will significantly contribute to future power supply

• We are just at the beginning of PV-market development

VDMA

Thank you

for your attention!

| 15 March 2017 | ITRPV 2017

Source: www.siemens.com/presse

Contact us:

[email protected]

Full version of 7th edition available at:

www.itrpv.net

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