real broadband, real growth dirk van der woude ontwikkelingsbedrijf gemeente amsterdam
TRANSCRIPT
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…like that of the British steam railways…
1838 Netherlands: choice between speed barges or steam…
Effect of infrastructure…
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And WiFi was important too…
1792Lille => Paris:• 15 stations• 36 characters in 32 minutes• all records broken, huge success
•And up to 1848 cause for the French to forgo investing into a copper telegraphe network
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Each industrial revolution is underpinned by new
infrastructure
1875
1971
1829
1771
1908
THE AGE OF INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY
THE AGE OF OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE,PETROCHEMICALS
AND MASS PRODUCTION
THE AGE OF STEEL ELECTRICITY AND HEAVY ENGINEERING
THE AGE OF RAILWAYS, COAL AND THE STEAM ENGINE
THE “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” IN ENGLAND
GLOBAL DIGITAL TELE-COMMUNICATIONS AND
ICT SUPPORT NETWORKS
ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE, HIGHWAYS AND AIRWAYS
TRANSCONTINENTAL COMMUNICATIONS, STEAMSHIPS,
RAILWAYS AND TELEGRAPH
CANALS, TURNPIKE ROADS AND MAIL COACHES
RAILWAYS, PENNY POST AND TELEGRAPH
Source: Carlota Pérez
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Old shoes are nice (some are quite old…)
Semaphore(portable version: Napoleon Bonaparte, 1802)
Optical chip throughput: 1,6 Tbs (april 2006)
Fiber speed: 8 Gb/s over 30,000 km (march 2006)First trans atlantic fiber (1988), First usable fiber optic cable (1970)
First TV Transmission through coaxBerlin Games (1934); First pilot in USA, AT&T (1936)
Coaxial cable patented in GermanyErnst Werner von Siemens (1884)
First demonstration of electric telephoneAntonio Santi Giuseppe Meucci (Havana 1849, NewYork 1854)
1875
1971
1829
1771
1908
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So let us be thankful for copper and coax!
however…
Imagine a world without having the age of steam…
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1999 - 2001: awareness Amsterdam
Can we be sure copper & cox networks are future proof– Practical speed
– Parallel use (video)
Not able to sustain the city’s economic & social needs– Like continuing strong old and new media & ICT sector
– Like citizens overwhelming web use (2006: > 85%)
“Living at a dirt road? Don’t buy a Ferrari”– Services follow infrastructure
– Creative sector & citizens will find out use
– Local government facilitates
Time for new network?
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Amsterdam – employment(total 412.000 working persons)
arts media and entertainment creative business services
content hardware telecommunication
financial software consultancy
Other
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Amsterdam internet exchange: growth
Worldwide peak speed records: July ‘05: > 50 Gb/s
October ’05: > 100 Gb/sMay ’06: > 154 Gb/sJune’07: > 282 Gb/s
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VDSL2 – laboratory conditions
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• And of course there is this ‘contention’ thing…
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Shared capacity…
So:• Better live nextto the central office…• And of course still there is this ‘contention’ thing…
• Parallel speed? Ams-IX per sub:UPC 40 kbitsEssent: 60 kbitsXS4All: 67 kbits
xDSL8 - 14 Mb/sdown,
0.7 – 0.8Mb/s
up
Leaves for web use: ? Mb
IP TVSD low = 3 to 4 MbSD normal = 4 to 6 MbHD low = 8 to 12 MbHD = 18 to 20 Mb
Two phones: 2 x 0,2 Mb
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First user test of Amsterdam FttH
• Advertised speed: 100 Mb up, 100 Mb down
• In practice (first days): 88 Mb down
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Japan: 270,000 new FttH… per month
Japan wireline subs added Q3-'04 through Q2-'06per type of line in % of total added
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
2004. 09 2004. 12 2005. 03 2005. 06 2005. 09 2005. 12 2006. 03 2006. 06
Cable xDSL FttH
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Wireline broadband Japan, 1999 - 2006plus prognosis 2007 - 2008
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
1999.032000.032001.032002.032003.032004.032005.032006.032006.062006.092006.122007.032007.062007.092007.122008.032008.062008.092008.12
thousands
Cable
xDSL
FttH
PrognosisFactual
Oct 1, 2008
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FttH, elsewhere in Europe just a pick (1)
France, the battle for & around Paris– Iliad: 1 million FttH at 1 billion Euro investment (City of Paris
supporting)
– Neuf Cegetel: in 2009 we want 250,000 FttH (50 Mbits) at euro 29,90
– France Telecom, 2007: FttH (100/10 Mbits at euro 44,90) in Paris, Poitiers, Marseille, Lille, Toulouse & Lyon. Target: 200,000 subs end 2008
– Noos Numericable, march 2007: “Massive investment towards FttH”
– over 100 broadband projects France with communal participation
– Nov. 2006, French government: 4 million FttH in 2012
Germany: competitive teleco’s announcing FttH– f.e. NetCologne: all of Cologne, to be followed by Bonn, Aachen?
(NetCologne = 100% GEW Köln AG = 100% City of Cologne)
– Other projects in Schwerte, Norderstedt, Hamburg, Gelsenkirchen, Dessau, Magdeburg
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FttH, elsewhere in Europe just a pick (2)
Vienna, Zürich (muni energy corp’s): – FttH in whole city
Norway: Hafslund energi (53% owned by City of Oslo)– FttH to half of Norwegian population
Sweden: – 200 of 289 communities own a fiber network
Denmark: energy corps doing FttH – 2008 – 2009 to 35% of homes (= 50% of population)
UK: – Oxfordshire project, part FttH (?), part Fiber/VDSL
– Rest of UK, according to BT & DSG: “12/1 Mb is enough for all & ever.” “No fiber please, we ‘re British”
– However, Ofcom report march 2007: “Last mile will have to be fiber”
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Hauts-de-Seine: 700,000 connections Western part of Greater Paris
– pop. 1.5 million, 100.000 SME’s, 880.000 jobs, 85% in services
– Per capita highest income of France
2005, adoption of proposal by the Chairman of the
Conseil General– FttH to all population and companies
– With a maximum subsidy of euro 70 million
Said Sarkozy: “Copper is not gonna cut it, we need
fiber”
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FttH in the EU, some examplesKöln
NetCologne200,000
FttH
Vienna
1 million FttH
Paris, Iliad
1 million FttH
Hauts-de-Seine
FttH
Milan
FttB
Stockholm
Dark fiber
Amsterdam
40,000 FttH
Municipal financialparticipation
n.a.
250 million n.a. 75 to 100 million worth of support
Up to 70 million
subsidy
100 million 100 million 6 million of 30 million (passive
layer)
Open network? No Aim: yes Yes? n.a. No Yes Yes
Public
Market
Support
Subsidy
passive
servicesoperator
Problem for EU?
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Three layers, three types of investors
40,000 homes passed now – more than 450,000
later on
Passive access network provider 20% municipal
Wholesale transmission provider
100% market
Service providers100% market
consumer/ SME
Rent
Rent
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Three kinds of financial dynamics
40,000 homes passed now – more than 450,000
later on
Passive networkReal estate like investment(Highly?) Profitable on long
term
Transmission Attractive OpEx, acceptable
CapEx – profitable in few years
ServicesHigh OpEx, Low CapEx
Quickly profitable
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6
6
6
12
30
Passive, market, investors Passive, market, housing corporations
Passive, City Passive, market, loan
Active, market
Translated into investments (millions of euro)
Public
Market
Support
Subsidy
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Fiber-from-the-Home 40,000 meter boxes, 10% of Amsterdam
Boroughs of Zeeburg (100%),
Oost (part)
& Osdorp (part)
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Architecture (1)
three-layer model• Passive fibre infrastructure: Point-to-Point
• Unbundled local loop of fiber = maximum competition at upstream level in value chain
• Largest capacity for future growth
• Active layer: Active Ethernet
• Applications services layer, Service providers are being offered transparent access:
• with discrete virtual LANs (VLANs) for each service on a per user basis
• allowing multiple services to be delivered and invoiced to each home in parallel (i.e. multiple ISP’s, Citywide Intranet, closed circuit IP-based surveillance, IP-TV, care and medical services etc.)
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Architecture (2)
Open network– Concession of 8 years for operator/investor, after that more operators
possible
– Operator is non discriminatory wholesale seller of capacity
Why not x-PON– Avert risk of having to (expensive) re-digging
– Labor costs dominate, will rise with inflation
– Short distances, so savings on cost of material (fiber) are small
– No lock-in of equipment supplier which stifles innovation
– Impossible to have different technology/supplier per subscriber line
Vragen?
www.glasvezelamsterdam.nl
&
www.citynet.nl