quarterly monitoring

8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring

1/23

Goals:

Walk through layered climate risk monitoringframework

Consider what actions with what info Feedback

Next steps: consolidating layers?

Interrupt Meaghan at least 2-3 timesto ask questions


2/23

Why layered?

Goal is to analyze risk

Climate info often tells us about changes in probabilitiesof drivers.

But not always about the hazards Need for cross-reference

Available information doesnt

fit together nicely


3/23

Seasonality of

Precip.

Cyclone

SeasonalityENSO Impacts

ENSO

Forecast

FloodPrecip.Cyclone Drought

SEASONAL (June / October)

(June)

STATIC

ANNUAL

REAL TIME

Cyclone Precip. Flood Drought

Mostly Regional

Mostly National

Regional and National

Regional


4/23

Seasonality of

Precip.

Cyclone


ENSO

Forecast


SEASONAL (June / October)

(June)

STATIC

ANNUAL

REAL TIME


Mostly Regional

Mostly National


Regional


5/23

ENSOForecast

Cross Check

SeasonalRainfall?

Cyclone

Season?

ENSOImpacts?

Risk Trend?

Neutral

Increasing

Decreasing

Increasing

Increasing

Neutral

Neutral

Decreasing

Decreasing

Action?

?

?

?


6/23

Risk Trend?

Neutral

Increasing

Decreasing

Increasing

Increasing

Neutral

Neutral

Decreasing

Decreasing

Action?

Follow up with regional/national forecasts

Contact climate info provider (IFRC Help Desk)

Follow up with regional forecasts only

Get more details on historical El Nio impacts

Etc.

Etc.

Prec

ip.

ENSO

Cyc

lon

e

Revise contingency plan

Etc.

Etc.


7/23

Walking through some

currently availableclimate information layers

Static (baseline)El Nio/La Nia

SeasonalReal Time


8/23

Seasonality of Rainfall

QuickTime and a

decompressorare needed to see this picture.


9/23


10/23

ENSO Impacts

QuickTime and adecompressor

are needed to see this picture.


11/23

ENSO Impacts




12/23

Seasonality of Cyclones

(Typhoons)

No readily available map for the region

Generally

North of Eq: May - OctSouth of Eq: Nov - April


13/23

ENSO Forecast




14/23

ENSO Forecast




15/23

Regional Precipitation Forecast #1


16/23



Regional Precipitation Forecast #2


17/23


18/23

Challenges

Currently need to navigate among

various websites

Delivery timescales are messy

Large gaps in certain countries

What thresholds? Set up pilot countries

Tailoring information to combine layers


19/23

Considering the possibilities

for combining layers


20/23

Visualizing Seasonality

of Hazards/Disasters

Cyclone

Flood

RainySeason

Country Month

Date


21/23

Visualizing Impacts

# Affected

# Displaced

# Injured

# KilledDesign credits:Information Designer: Rhiannon Fox.

Assistant Professor of Comm.Design

/Art Director / Supervisor: Julia Wargaski


22/23

Questions?

Bring on the feedback! :)

L #1 STATIC BASELINE


23/23

Seasonality of

Precip.

Cyclone


ENSO

Forecast


Layer # 3: SEASONAL

Layer #1: STATIC BASELINE

Layer #2: ANNUAL

Layer # 4: REAL TIME


Mostly Regional

Mostly National


Regional

quarterly monitoring

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