public opinion of lebanese christians -

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December 2012

Public Opinion of

Lebanese Christians

Content

2

1. Research Objectives

2. Methodology

3. Key Findings

Sample profile

Christians’ Fears & Concerns

Political Forces Assessment

Christians’ Expectations

Christians and Elections

Media Consumption Habits

4. Conclusions

1 Research

Objectives

Research Objectives

The main objective of this study was to better understand the opinion of the

Lebanese Christian voters regarding certain issues.

More specifically:

Identify their main concerns and fears.

Assess their perception towards political events, parties, and

people

Understand their aspirations for the future

Understand the importance of local and country issues

Understand what motivates / de-motivates them to vote or not

Identify their voting patterns

2

Methodology

Methodology

2000 interviews were conducted Face to Face.

The survey was done in 13 voting Cazas having a majority of

Christians, and not in all the Cazas.

Cazas of execution are: Aley, Beirut one, Baabda, Batroun,

Chouf, Jbeil, Jezzine, Kesrwan, Koura, Metn, Zahle & Zgharta.

The sample was representative of the Christian voters of each

Caza as per the voting registration lists, including both residents

and non residents of the Caza.

The fieldwork was done between 16th October –3rd December

by the specialized interviewers of IPSOS.

Each team of interviewers was directed by a full-time supervisor

who was responsible for the interviewers on the field.

3

Key Findings

Sample Profile

Age, Gender, Religion, Marital Status

Male 51%

Female 49%

Gender

5%

27%

32%

36%

18-20

21-34

35-49

50+

Age

69%

14%

9%

5%

1%

2%

Maronite

Greek Orthodox

Greek Catholic

Armenian Orthodox

Armenian Catholic

Other Christian / Minorities

Religious/sectarian affiliation

Single 34%

Married 62%

Widowed 3%

Divorced 1%

Marital Status

Political Activity

46%

18%

17%

12%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Lebanese Forces

Tayyar (FPM)

Tashnag party

Kataeb

Marada

Communist party

PNSS

Ramgavar party

Hunchak party

Myself N = 262

M7a. Who in your family including yourself is active in a political party? M7b. In which political party are you/they active?

48%

20%

16%

14%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

Lebanese Forces

Tayyar (FPM)

Kataeb

Tashnag party

Marada

PNSS

National Liberal party

Communist party

Ramgavar party

Other Family Member (s) N = 234

84%

13%

12%

No one

Myself

Other family members

In the household N = 2000

Christians’

Fears &

Concerns

The Lebanese Identity

N = 2000

Q1a. How do you feel towards holding the Lebanese identity?

74%

9%

6%

5%

4%

3%

3%

3%

Proud

Belonging

Pessimistic

Neutral

Optimistic

Free

Ashamed

Lost

Significantly more among voters of Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, & Baabda more than the other regions

Significantly more among voters of Zgharta more than the other regions

Significantly more among voters of Beirut One more than the other regions

Significantly more among voters of Chouf more than the other regions

Feelings Toward Current Personal Situation

N = 2000

Q2. In general, how do you feel regarding your current personal situation?

53%

26%

13%

2%

6%

I am happy, but worried about

the future

I am unhappy and worried about the

future

I am happy and not worried about

the future

I am unhappy, but not worried about the future

I don't know how to feel / not sure

Feeling significantly stronger among female voters, and in Bcharre and Koura

Current Main Concerns

N = 2000

Q3. What are your main concerns these days?

41%

22%

15%

10%

5%

Security situation of the country/ weapons with

individuals/ army …

Economic situation (expensiveness, unemployment)

My health and that of my family

My personal safety and that of my family

My personal financial / work situation

First Mentioned Main Concern

83%

79%

47%

38%

35%

8%

4%

3%

Security situation of the country/ weapons with individuals/ army

weakness

Economic situation (expensiveness, unemployment)

My personal safety and that of my family

My personal financial / work situation

My health and that of my family

The events in Syria & the Arab countries

The political situation in Lebanon (elections, leaders, government,

inter-Christians conflict

Fear for the future (migration of youth, children's future, third age)

Main Concerns

Significantly more among women, and in Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn and Jezzine

Significantly more in Bcharre and Beirut 1

Lebanon’s Greatest Danger Today

N = 2000

Q5. In your opinion, what is Lebanon’s greatest danger today?

16%

16%

13%

11%

5%

5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

War: civil/ Sunni-Chia/ ME/ with Israel

The declining economy

Hezbollah weapons

The lack of the state's control on the security situation

The increased sectarian conflicts

Inter-Christian divisions

Lebanon getting involved in the regional/Syrian crisis

The illegitimate arms in the streets

The corruption

The increased presence of Salafists in Lebanon

The displacement of the Christians

Significantly more among male voters of Bechare

Significantly more among young women and voters of Chouf & Beirut 1

Significantly more among voters of Zgharta & Baabda than the other regions

Significantly more among women

Dangers on Your Future

N = 2000

Q6. Please choose from the list the 3 statements that you consider dangerous on your future (circle in the column 1) and rank them from 1 to 3, where “1 = most dangerous” and “3 = least dangerous”, in terms of danger on your future (write in column 2)?

53%

49%

48%

45%

33%

29%

20%

10%

6%

6%

A declining economy

Weak Lebanese state

Weak, corrupt or inefficient politicians

Lebanese Christian divisions

Terrorist attacks in Lebanon

Hezbollah's weapons

Increasing influence of Salafis in Lebanon

Salafis or Ikhwan taking over in Syria

Bachar Al Assad staying in power

A civil war in Syria

1.89

2.02

1.78

2.03

2.00

2.35

2.12

2.08

2.17

1.94

Least dangerous 1 2 3 Most dangerous

Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Chouf & Beirut 1

Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Baabda & Beirut 1

Significantly more in Metn & Baabda

94%

94%

90%

89%

80%

79%

78%

75%

69%

64%

62%

61%

61%

55%

47%

42%

6%

6%

10%

11%

20%

21%

22%

25%

31%

36%

38%

39%

39%

45%

53%

58%

Interested in

Yes No

Christians in Lebanon

N = 2000

Q8a. I am going to read to you some statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you “agree” or “do not agree” with each of these statements? Q8b. I am going to read to you again the same statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you are “interested” or “not interested” in each of these statements?

94%

52%

61%

66%

82%

39%

75%

62%

58%

56%

34%

19%

15%

47%

39%

17%

4%

34%

27%

26%

13%

51%

12%

18%

22%

33%

46%

76%

74%

30%

36%

57%

2%

13%

11%

8%

5%

10%

13%

19%

19%

11%

20%

5%

11%

23%

25%

26%

Land sales present a danger on Christians

Christians have a bright future in Lebanon

The Lebanese Christians lost their power in Lebanon

Christians are in danger in Lebanon

Lebanon should not interfere in what is happening in Syria

Lebanese Christians are better off today than in 2004

Christians should get closer to all communities

Lebanese Christians should call for the change of the Ta’ef agreement

Salafists are more dangerous than Hezbollah on Christians

Lebanese Christians should protect as much as possible Syrian Christians

Hezbollah is more dangerous than Salafists on Christians

Lebanese Christians should work to have a state of their own

Hezbollah should be allowed to set its own telecom network

Christians and Druze should unite to protect each other

Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites

Christians should get closer to Shiites than to Sunnites

Agree with…

Yes No I am not sure

Christians Existence in Lebanon

Q9a. As a Lebanese Christian, do you feel that your existence in Lebanon is being threatened? Q9b. Why YES? Q9c. Why NOT?

Yes 66%

No 34%

Christians Existence in Lebanon is Being Threatened?

N = 2000

38%

32%

20%

20%

15%

12%

12%

8%

8%

8%

7%

5%

4%

The immigration of Christians

The dramatic decrease in the Christian population in Lebanon

The continuous struggle among Christian political leaders

The increased power of Hezbollah in Lebanon

The increased power of Salafists in Lebanon

The absence of a prominent leader to defend the Christians

The presence of illegitimate armed forces

Salafists and Ikhwan taking over in the neighboring countries

The Muslim majority in the neighboring countries

The increasing growth of the Muslim population

The Ta'ef agreement diminished the role of Christians in Lebanon

All other sects are armed except the Christians

The poor security situation

Reasons why YES N = 1321

45%

37%

14%

7%

Christianity emerged from this region and no one can remove us

Christians are the core founders of Lebanon

They tried in 1975 and failed because we resisted and we can do it again

The alliance between the Shiite and Christians will protect us

Reasons why NOT N = 679

Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn

Significantly more in Zgharta, Baabda & Aley

99%

98%

96%

70%

24%

10%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

3%

24%

36%

42%

30%

35%

39%

30%

1%

1%

1%

6%

19%

48%

65%

54%

57%

67%

1%

21%

1%

4%

9%

3%

2%

Independence

Freedom

Democracy

Resistance

Federalism

Sectarianism

Integrism (Oussoulia)

Wilayat el Fakih

Muslim Brotherhood

Integralism (Salafia)

I love it I don’t care It scares me Don’t know the meaning

Feelings Towards …

Q13. On a scale where 1 = “love it”, 2 = “I don’t care”, and 3” It scares me”, can you please tell me how you feel regarding the following terms.

N = 2000

LOV

E SC

AR

E

Political

Forces

Assessment

Government Performance

Q4. How would you evaluate the performance of the actual government, compared to the previous one’s performance? Would you say that the actual government’s performance is 1. Much better, 2. A little bit better, 3. Identical, 4. A little bit worse, 5. Much worse than the previous government’s performance? Q4a. In what is it better? Q4b. In what is it identical? Q4c. In what is it worse?

18%

41% 41%

Better (than previous) Identical Worse (than previous)

Government Performance N = 2000

44%

25%

21%

12%

11%

Good performance of different ministries

Worked towards the citizens concerns and

vital needs

Better security situation/ stronger army/ war

avoided

Less corruption

Independent decision, no more american control,

against international tribunal

How Better? N = 357

74%

42%

5%

4%

Still same situation/ Unsecured status

Same economical situation

Driven to external decision rather than to Lebanon

Corruption

How Identical? N = 819

44%

41%

40%

18%

15%

4%

Bad security situation

Incompetent team

Did not work towards the citizens concerns and vital

needs

Bad performance of different ministries

Corruption

Bad impact on Christians

How Worse? N = 824

Significantly more in Zgharta & Koura

Significantly more in Bcharre, Jbeil, Beirut 1 & Zahle

32%

26%

19%

14%

11%

6%

Inefficient

Working for the best interest of Christians

Struggling

Powerful

Following foreign and/or Arab countries' instructions

Followers to the alliance they belong to

Kataeb

Perception of Christian Political Parties

Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon?

N = 2000

28%

22%

22%

21%

20%

14%

13%

Inefficient

Destroying/ threatening Christians future existence in Lebanon



Powerful


Struggling

Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar

32%

24%

24%

17%

13%

12%

11%


Powerful

Inefficient

Struggling


Destroying/ threatening Christians future existence in Lebanon


Lebanese Forces

30%

16%

16%

13%

10%

9%

8%

Inefficient


Powerful



Struggling

Destroying/ threatening Christians future existence in …

Marada

Perception of the Lebanese Forces

By Caza


N = 2000

Place of Voting

Zg

hart

a

Be

cha

re

Ko

ura

Ba

tro

un

Jb

eil

Ke

srw

an

Me

tn

Ba

ab

da

Ale

y

Ch

ou

f

Be

iru

t o

ne

Zah

le

Je

zzin

e

130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94

Working for the best interest of

Christians 25% 77% 23% 31% 40% 35% 28% 37% 18% 25% 26% 29% 21%

Powerful 21% 65% 26% 36% 11% 15% 17% 9% 10% 27% 32% 40% 21%

Inefficient 19% 6% 12% 20% 49% 34% 30% 25% 22% 16% 22% 16% 30%

Struggling 10% 14% 8% 10% 31% 23% 19% 17% 5% 19% 14% 23% 15%

Following foreign and/or Arab

countries' instructions 24% 5% 6% 4% 27% 20% 16% 9% 1% 5% 14% 11% 12%

Destroying/ threatening the future

existence of Christians in

Lebanon

26% 2% 12% 6% 18% 17% 17% 10% 3% 5% 7% 8% 11%

Followers to the alliance they

belong to 18% 1% 6% 5% 17% 12% 17% 6% 3% 9% 10% 12% 10%

Perception of Kataeb

By Caza


N = 2000

Place of Voting

Zg

hart

a

Be

cha

re

Ko

ura

Ba

tro

un

Jb

eil

Ke

srw

an

Me

tn

Ba

ab

da

Ale

y

Ch

ou

f

Be

iru

t o

ne

Zah

le

Je

zzin

e

130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94

Inefficient 26% 28% 27% 24% 60% 43% 35% 28% 21% 34% 23% 26% 38%

Working for the best

interest of Christians 23% 33% 16% 20% 32% 29% 28% 30% 18% 20% 24% 31% 23%

Struggling 35% 15% 14% 15% 28% 16% 17% 15% 6% 16% 13% 27% 20%

Powerful 7% 13% 10% 19% 4% 14% 14% 14% 12% 20% 21% 19% 16%

Following foreign and/or

Arab countries' instructions 17% 6% 3% 4% 31% 16% 13% 6% 1% 6% 14% 9% 9%

Followers to the alliance

they belong to 18% 1% 2% 2% 9% 6% 7% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6%

Perception of Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar

By Caza


N = 2000

Place of Voting

Zg

hart

a

Be

cha

re

Ko

ura

Ba

tro

un

Jb

eil

Ke

srw

an

Me

tn

Ba

ab

da

Ale

y

Ch

ou

f

Be

iru

t one

Zah

le

Je

zzin

e

130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94

Inefficient 25% 20% 14% 23% 51% 26% 27% 19% 24% 26% 29% 40% 34%

Destroying/ threatening the

future existence of Christians

in Lebanon

9% 68% 17% 18% 28% 25% 20% 30% 1% 12% 13% 26% 14%


belong to 19% 57% 26% 22% 29% 20% 22% 10% 10% 11% 15% 27% 15%

Working for the best interest

of Christians 35% 1% 17% 14% 25% 31% 27% 17% 14% 20% 18% 17% 21%

Powerful 38% 5% 19% 21% 15% 19% 23% 16% 18% 17% 21% 17% 22%



Struggling 9% 6% 15% 11% 25% 15% 12% 12% 5% 9% 12% 22% 12%


N = 2000

Place of Voting

Zg

hart

a

Be

cha

re

Ko

ura

Ba

tro

un

Jb

eil

Ke

srw

an

Me

tn

Ba

ab

da

Ale

y

Ch

ou

f

Be

iru

t one

Zah

le

Je

zzin

e

130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94

Inefficient 19% 45% 34% 37% 43% 30% 31% 24% 17% 29% 24% 31% 26%

Working for the best interest of

Christians 45% 11% 21% 12% 19% 18% 11% 12% 14% 16% 16% 16% 9%

Powerful 36% 11% 15% 17% 21% 15% 14% 11% 6% 14% 19% 9% 22%




belong to 20% 8% 5% 4% 10% 13% 14% 5% - 5% 8% 14% 7%

Struggling 4% 4% 5% 5% 14% 8% 11% 10% 3% 6% 7% 16% 9%

Destroying/ threatening the future

existence of Christians in Lebanon 4% 9% 2% 4% 9% 14% 12% 16% 4% 3% 4% 11% 2%

Perception of Marada

By Caza

Perception of Hezbollah

Q14. I am going to read to you some statements concerning Hezbollah. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Strongly disagree” and 5= “Strongly agree”, please tell me how much you agree or disagree with each of these statements?

N = 2000

64%

56%

52%

50%

48%

39%

34%

29%

26%

23%

19%

11%

20%

19%

13%

16%

28%

13%

19%

20%

17%

33%

28%

31%

39%

45%

39%

58%

54%

58%

Hezbollah is an Iranian party that works according to the Iranian agenda

Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Lebanon

Since the withdrawal of Israel in 2000, Hezbollah is no more needed and should be disarmed

Hezbollah is working towards changing Lebanon into an Islamic state

Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Christians

Hezbollah weapons are a current necessity but should be removed on the long term

Hezbollah weapons are an important counter weight to Salafists

Hezbollah weapons are an absolute necessity for Lebanon’s security

Hezbollah is a Lebanese party whose main concern is the Lebanese state

Hezbollah weapons issue should not be discussed as it can lead to a civil war

Agree Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree

Agree: Sig. more in Koura Disagree: Sig. more in Zgharta

Political Leader who Played a Positive Role in

the History of Lebanon

Q19. In the history of Lebanon, who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader (not necessarily late) who played a positive role in Lebanon more than others?

38%

19%

6%

4%

2%

2%

2%

Bachir Gemayel

Camil Chamoun

Fouad Chehab

Sleiman Frangieh

Bechara el Khoury

Elias Sarkis

Pierre Gemayel (Sr.)

N = 2000

Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn & Baabda

Significantly more in Baabda & Jezzine

Political Leader who is Playing a Positive Role in

Lebanon and How

Q19a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a positive role in Lebanon more than others? Q19b. How?

28%

23%

16%

8%

7%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

None

Samir Geagea

Michel Aoun

Patriarch Bechara Raii

Michel sleimen

Sleimen Frangieh

Sami Gemayel

Sayed Hassan Nasrallah

Amin Gemayel

Najib Mikati

Walid Jumblat

Boutros Harb

55%

20% 16%

11% 11%

Preserves the rights of

Christians

Cares about the interests of the

Lebanese community

Maintained his stance

Attempt to unify

Christians

His speeches call for

state-building

How? Samir Geagea N=469

N=2000

27% 27%

9% 9% 7% 6% 6%

Cares about the interests

of the Lebanese

community

Preserves the rights of

Christians

Attempt to unify

Christians

Prevented major clashes by joining in alliance with

Hezbollah

Fought political

corruption

Made reconciliations

and agreements

Does not want to go

into war

How? Michel Aoun N=314

Sig. more among women

Sig. more among men 18-24

Sig. more among age 50+

Political Leader who is Playing a Negative Role

in Lebanon and How

Q20a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a negative role in Lebanon more than others? Q20b. How?

27%

12%

8%

8%

7%

4%

Michel Aoun

Samir Geagea

All of them

Sayed Hassan Nasrallah

Saad El Hariri

Ahmad El asir

N=2000

28%

21%

16% 14% 13%

11% 9%

7% 6% 5% 5%

His alliance with

Hezbollah

Works for personal gain

He is stirring up conflicts

among Christians

His alliance with Syria

Does not adopt a firm

stance

Because of his association

with Iran

Instead of strengthening the Christians'

position, he weakened it

His main concern is to be

appointed in office

His work and projects are useless

His speeches are

provocative

He is leading us to

destruction

How? Michel Aoun N=540

19%

15% 15% 15%

9% 9% 6% 6% 5%

He wants to cause a civil war

He is stirring up conflicts

among Christians

His speeches are provocative

Works for personal gain

Instead of strengthening the Christians'

position, he weakened it

He does whatever is

requested by external

countries

He is leading us to destruction

Works with Israel

His work and projects are

useless

How? Samir Geagea N=239

March 14 vs. March 8

Q21. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Totally Dissatisfied” and 5= “Totally Satisfied”, please tell me in general, how much you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of: March 8 alliance? March 14 alliance?

N = 2000

25%

34%

15%

16%

60%

49%

March 8

March 14

Satisfied Neither Dissatisfied nor Satisfied Dissatisfied

Avg.

1.85

Avg.

1.65

Mistakes of March 14 and March 8 since 2005

Q22a. What are in your opinion the main mistakes done by the March 8th alliance since 2005? Q22b. What are in your opinion the main mistakes done by the March 14th alliance since 2005?

N = 2000

32%

24%

22%

19%

15%

14%

14%

10%

4%

4%

4%

Failed in the government/ Could not solve the problems/ Negative role …

Dominant power of Hezbollah/ Relying on Hezbollah’s weapons

Destruction of the country/ Turning their weapons inward/ war/ …

Ties with Iran & Syria

Lack of coordination and conformity

Corruption and lies

Don't know

None/ No mistakes

No vision for the future

Failed at communicating its good messages

Attacking the other party, the Sunnite leaders/ one-sided government

March 8 24%

17%

16%

15%

9%

9%

8%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

Lack of coordination and conformity

Corruption, stealing and lies

Failed in the government/ Could not solve the problems/ Negative role …

Unable to propose concrete solutions to the problems in …

Electing Nabih Berri as spokesman of the parliament despite the fact …

Concessions they did, caring for both parties interests rather than theirs, …

Protests, fighting, sit-ins, rallies

No political clarity/ volatile relationship with Syria/ multi leaders

Ties with Saudi Arabia

They have no vision for the future

Supporting the Syrian rebellion

Loyalty to western countries

March 14

Christians’

Expectations

Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the

Next Few Months

N = 2000

Q7a. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next few months?

89%

82%

77%

44%

40%

12%

11%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

7%

Provide security

Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life

Solve economic issues

Political issues

Fight corruption & preserve people's rights

Education

Drug problems

The situation of the prisons

National reconciliation

Environmental issue

Preserve/restore Christians' rights

Better performance of ministries

None

Main Topics

46%

21%

17%

9%

4%

2%

Provide security



Political issues



First Mentioned Main Topics

Main Topics for Christian Politicians to

Tackle as a Priority

Q11. What are the main topics you would like Christian politicians to tackle as a priority?

N = 2000

81%

78%

69%

53%

41%

17%

13%

9%

7%

3%

3%

8%


Provide security


Political issues


Education

Drug problems




Environmental issue

None

Main Topics

37%

22%

15%

11%

6%

4%

4%

Provide security


Political issues






Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the

Next 3 Years

N = 2000

Q7b. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next 3 years?

87%

82%

72%

43%

40%

15%

12%

4%

4%

2%

2%

1%

7%


Provide security


Political issues


Education

Drug problems

Environmental issue





None

Main Topics

39%

28%

17%

8%

5%

1%

1%

Provide security



Political issues





Political System Best for the Lebanese

Christians

Q10. In your opinion, what political system is the best for the Lebanese Christians?

35%

10%

9%

4%

4%

2%

The current system, but with a stronger state

Democratic system

Federal state

The current system (as it is)

Secular regime

Division of the country

N = 2000

Sig. more in Zgharta, Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn

Sig. more in Bcharre, Koura, Batroun & Baabda

Improving March 8 Performance

Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change?

All of

them

Tayyar /

M. Aoun

Hezbollah /

S. H. Nasrallah

Gebran

Bassil

Nabih

Berri

Marada /

S. Frangieh

Bases 734 616 510 159 77 75

Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions

towards their demands/ Better economic situation/ Work

on development

23% 29% 23% 97% 26% 34%

Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians &

Muslims, politicians from different sides 26% 32% 27% 8% 37% 29%

Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war,

destruction, protestations/ Not support extremists/

Strengthen the army

27% 15% 45% 18% 29% 13%

Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries

interests 19% 16% 26% 8% 25% 21%

Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore

their rights 9% 15% 3% 6% 2% 16%

Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the

truth/ Be transparent 10% 8% 7% 7% 10% 8%

Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a

national government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair

electoral law

5% 6% 7% 3% 10% 5%

Leave the government/ Form a new government 5% 6% 6% 3% 10% 3%

Improving March 14 Performance

Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change?

All of them Lebanese Forces /

S. Geagea

Moustakbal /

S. El Hariri

Kataeb /

A.-S. Gemayel

Bases 750 574 412 161

Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians & Muslims,

politicians from different sides 31% 42% 39% 41%

Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions towards their

demands/ Better economic situation/ Work on development 15% 16% 21% 18%

Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries interests 17% 12% 23% 13%

Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war, destruction,

protestations/ Not support extremists/ Strengthen the army 16% 9% 15% 7%

Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the truth/ Be

transparent 12% 11% 11% 16%

Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore their rights 10% 15% 3% 17%

Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a national

government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair electoral law 6% 6% 6% 9%

Leave the government/ Form a new government 5% 4% 3% 3%

Overall Wish List for Lebanon

Q24. Overall, what do you wish for Lebanon?

N = 2000

69%

67%

45%

39%

21%

20%

19%

Peace and concordance

Better economy

More security

Better conditions of life

Less corruption & more respect for laws

Unity between its people

New and competent politicians

Christians and

Elections

Electoral Law Best for Lebanese Christians

Q15. Which electoral law do you think is for the best benefit of the Christians?

N = 2000

24%

24%

16%

7%

7%

6%

3%

3%

3%

Don't Know

Each community votes for its representatives

One circumscription with proportional representation

One man/ one vote

Majority rules but with small electoral districts

Same as last elections /2009 (majority rules)

Small constituencies

Proportional representation

The sixties' electoral law

Significantly more among voters of Kesrwan more than the other regions

Significantly more among voters of Zgharta more than the other regions

Significantly more among voters of Metn and Zahle more than the other regions

Significantly more among voters of Bechare more than the other regions

Influence to Vote for a Certain Candidate

Q16. In general, what influences you to vote for a certain candidate?

N = 2000

38%

30%

23%

16%

7%

6%

Qualifications of the candidate

Previous performance of the candidate

Political agenda

Nothing, I simply like the political party the candidate belongs to, for

no specific reason

Nothing, I simply like the candidate for no specific reason

Family influence

Gender Age

Ma

le

Fem

ale

18-2

0

21-3

4

35-4

9

50+

Qualifications of the

candidate 37% 41% 31% 40% 40% 37%

Previous performance of

the candidate 29% 32% 30% 31% 29% 31%

Political agenda 24% 23% 25% 27% 23% 21%

Nothing, I simply like the

political party the

candidate belongs to, for

no specific reason

19% 14% 24% 18% 16% 14%

Nothing, I simply like the

candidate for no specific

reason

8% 6% 4% 7% 6% 9%

Family influence 4% 7% 5% 7% 6% 4%

Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013

Q17a. Did you go to the polls in the last legislative elections in 2009? Q17c. Why not? Q18a.Will you go to the polls in the next legislative elections in 2013? Q18c. Why not?

Yes 75%

No 25%

Went to the polls in 2009 elections N = 2000

51%

13%

13%

11%

6%

I was below 21/ not the eligible age

I don't care about elections

There is no one who represents me

I was convinced that my vote would not change anything

I was outside the country

Why didn’t you Vote N = 498

Yes 67%

Not sure / undecided

11% No

22%

Will go to the polls in 2013 elections N = 2000

31%

21%

16%

15%

13%

4%

My vote will not change anything

I will still be below 21/ not the eligible age

There is no one who represents me

I don't care about elections

I am disappointed with whom I voted for before and I will not vote again

I don't believe that with the presence of armed parties, elections are free

Why will you Not Vote N = 498

Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013

Q17b. Who did you vote for? Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for?

27%

24%

19%

14%

8%

5%

4%

3%

3%

FPM/Tayyar

Lebanese Forces

Someone from M14 coalition

I don't want to reveal to whom I voted

Kataeb


Marada

Tashnag party candidates

No one, I voted with a white ballot

Who did you vote for in 2009? N=1502

25%

23%

20%

14%

7%

4%

4%

4%

Lebanese Forces

I didn't decide yet

FPM/Tayyar


Kataeb

Marada

I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote


Who will you vote for in2013? N=1564

Voting Patterns in 2009

By Caza

Zgharta (N = 101)

Someone from M8 coalition 48%


I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 8%

No one, I voted with a white ballot 2%

Someone independent 1%

Someone my religious authority

supports 1%

Bechare (N =84)






Koura ( N =83)






Q17b. Who did you vote for?

Batroun (N = 95)






Jbeil (N =104)






Kesrwan( N =163)







By Caza

Chouf (N = 86)




No one, I will vote with a white ballot 4%


Beirut One (N =117)






Zahle ( N =157)






Q17b. Who did you vote for?

Jezzine (N =58)






Metn (N = 271)





Someone with the president 1%

Baabda (N =133)






Aley ( N =49)





By Caza

Zgharta (N = 108)



I didn't decide yet 7%

I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 6%


Someone my religious authority

supports 1%


Bechare (N =95)




No one, I will vote with a white

ballot 1%


Koura ( N =89)






I don't want to reveal to whom I will

vote 2%

Walid Azar 1%

Batroun (N =96)







Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for?

Jbeil (N=102)





Georges Corm 3%





By Caza

Metn (N=265)






Common electoral lists 1%


Baabda (N=130)







Aley (N=57)






Anis Nasr 2%

Ziad Baroud 2%


Kesrwan (N=175)






Ziad Baroud 2%


Nematallah Efram 1%

National Liberal party 1%

Hekmat Efram 1%

Elie Keserwani 1%

Wissam Baroudi 1%


By Caza

Zahle (N=159)









Jezzine (N=68)



Someone fromM14 coalition 21%



Beirut one (N=121)







Ramgavar party 1%

Michel Chidiac 1%

Hunchak party 1%

Chouf (N=99)







Media

Consumption

Habits

TV Station Usually Watched

N = 2000

65% 64%

37%

31%

17%

8% 7% 7%

MTV LBCI Al Jadeed OTV Tele Lumiere Future Tele Liban Manar

M1. Which local TV station(s) do you watch most often?

Based on Top of Mind of the Christians interviewed in the specific Cazas of the study.

Internet Usage

M2. Do you have an internet connection at home? M3. Do you personally use the internet? If YES, where? M4. In general how often do you use the internet? M5. Specifically, how often do you use the internet for each of the following activities? M6. What websites do you visit most frequently for political news? Please name maximum 10 websites

Yes 67%

No 33%

Have Internet Connection at Home

N = 2000

Yes 53%

No 47%

Personally Use the Internet N = 2000 85%

52%

16% 4% 3% 3%

At home From my smart phone

/ Tablet

In the office From an internet cafe

At school/ at the

university

From somewhere

else

Where do you use the Internet From N =1062

N = 1062 Avg. / week:

21.47

50.2

39.65 36.02

22.4 22.11

16.11 14.15 13.64 12.09 8.55

Instant messaging/

video conference

Check your Facebook account

E-mail Post comments

about politics on Facebook

Read articles about

political news

Check your Twitter account

Watch or share videos

Post comments

about politics on

Twitter

Read blogs Contribute on forums

Internet Activities – Avg. / Month N =1049

40%

34%

21%

14%

12%

12%

11%

lebaneseforces.com

tayyar.org

annahar.net

alnashra.com

mtv.com.lb

lbcgroup.tv

kataeb.org

Top 10 Political Websites N = 324

4

Conclusions

Christians Fears & Concerns

Christians mainly identify themselves as Lebanese and Christians

significantly more among the females.

They don’t see themselves as Arabs. Voters of Jbeil, Kesrwan and Metn

consider themselves “world citizens” more than other Cazas. And voters of

Jbeil, Kesrwan and Baabda identify themselves as “Pheneocian descendents”

more than other Cazas.

Despite how they identify themselves, the majority feel proud of being

Lebanese.

The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security

Situation and the Economic Situation.

Specifically the security situation is more significant among females and the

voters of Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn, and Jezzine.

To them the main dangers on their future is the “weak state” and the “corrupt

and inefficient politicians”. These factors reflect negatively on the

economic situation.

Besides the Lebanese Christians also consider the illegal weapons a great

danger on their future.

Specifically, those who mentioned that Hezbollah weapons is a dangerous

factor on their future, considered it as the 1st danger.

Christians Fears & Concerns

The Lebanese Christians are mainly interested in issues related to the

situation and presence of the Christians for example: (their future, land

selling, size of their power, leadership).

Also they are interested in living in peace with everyone around them.

they refuse any kind of war and consider the illegal weapons with the

different parties (Palestinians, Hezbollah, Salafists…) as a danger on their

future.

They want good relationships with everyone but also have a strong

leader that can defend the Christians.

To 39%, Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites.

One third of the Lebanese Christians are still optimistic about their

presence in Lebanon and don’t consider themselves threatened because

they believe that they emerged from this region and are the core

founders of Lebanon.

However the other two thirds who are afraid is because they consider that

the Islamic presence in Lebanon currently has an advantage over the

Christians in terms of increased population, powerful roles, and unified

leaders. They see that the Immigration of the Christians , the absence

of a strong leader , and the continuous disputes between the political

parties are threatening of situation of the Christians.


40% of the Lebanese Christians believe that the government performance

didn’t change from before in terms of the security and economic situations.

Also to 42% these two issues has worsened.

However, 18% see that the performance of this government was better in

some ministries that worked for the interest of citizens.

The Lebanese Christians love Freedom, Independence, Democracy, and

Resistance.

While they fear Sectarianism , Integrism, Integralism, Wilayat el Fakih,

and Muslim Brotherhood.

To the majority Lebanese Forces is still the strongest political party and

the one working for the benefits of the Christians.

On the other hand, to the majority Hezbollah works with an Iranian agenda

and its weapons are dangerous to Lebanon and the Christians in specific.

Moreover it is working towards changing Lebanon into an Islamic state.

Despite the fact that Christians refuse any type of war and they want to live

in peace with everyone, they disagree that Hezbollah weapons issue should

not be discussed as it can lead to a civil war.


After 30 years of his assassination, Bachir Gemayel is still considered the

political leader who played a positive role in the history of Lebanon

significantly among the young Christians.

Camil Chamoun comes next however he is significantly named among the

older Christians.

In general, Christians assess a political leader to be playing a positive role if

he / she:

o Works to preserve the role of the Christians

o Unifies them (significant among females)

o Cares about the interests of the Lebanese Community

For those who consider Samir Geagea to be the leader playing a positive

role, they do so because they see that he works towards preserving the

rights of the Christians.

The Majority of the Lebanese Christians are more satisfied with the

performance of March 14 more than that of March 8.

In addition, the mistakes of March 14 after 2005 are related to the

performance of the alliance (e.g. coordination, failing in the government,

unable to propose concrete solutions), whereas the mistakes of March 8

are more crucial to the stability of the country like relying on the Hezbollah

weapons, May 7th events, and the failing of the government.

Christians’ Expectations

The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security

Situation and the Economic Situation.

These two concerns are also the main topics that they want the

politicians in general and the Christian politicians in specific to tackle in

as a priority, in the short run and the long run.

As a fact, these two issues are highly related to each other. If the

security situation is not stable the economy cannot flourish. Any

security issue can cause great set-backs in the economy.

The Lebanese Christians don’t want a different kind of political system

from the current one but they want a stronger state.

Thank you for your trust

and confidence in IPSOS

public opinion of lebanese christians -

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